u3a High Street Project 2020
Progress Report
Table of Contents
Section 1
Introduction and background
Section 2
What we have done so far - and why
Section 3
Summary outcomes from baseline September
survey
Section 4
Next steps – including an outline project
timetable until final 2022 report
Section 5
Resources required and communications
Appendix 1
Business Groupings
Section 1 Introduction and Background
Because of the depth and strength of the Project, it may be helpful to readers of this progress report for the five component elements of the Project to be identified at the outset:
1. Drawing on the enthusiasm of u3a members nationwide, it proved possible to gather survey data on a very large scale about retail and service outlets on high streets throughout the UK. This survey, carried out in September 2020, forms the core of the Project.
2. It is planned to repeat the survey exercise during September 2021 in order to detect any changes.
3. It was suggested that some thought should be given to a question widely asked in mainstream media: “What, if any, impact has the Covid Pandemic had on the pattern of retail in the UK?” To establish why a business has closed requires as a minimum:
knowledge of its past trading & profitability performance, its fixed costs, cash flows and debts. Any assumptions by local surveyors, therefore, would at best be guess work or ill-informed presumptions and will not be included in the project report.
4. The data will be employed to develop on-line information about the high streets using maps and the photographs that the surveyors provided in respect of every unit listed. 5. Individual u3as are being encouraged to develop their own local ‘High Street Projects’ in
whatever way they may choose.
What follows represents an account of work done to date with working documents which are likely to be revised during 2021.
The initial idea
The initial idea for this project emerged in October 2018 when North London u3a member, Peter Cox, whose career with the John Lewis Partnership meant he had both great expertise and interest in retail, envisaged a national High Street Shared learning Project (SLP) in which local u3as would research and report on the history and current state of the shops in their area.
His ideas included setting up groups within each u3a (or clusters of local u3as) who would examine their current and past local shopping streets. The groups would write up the results of their
research, identifying the trends, and perhaps speculating on what the future held for High Streets. Peter ran four ‘pre-pilots’ in November 2018 with members of his u3a which by April 2019 were worked up into a paper. In May 2019, he gave a presentation about this work at a u3a Research Network Day; this generated considerable enthusiasm so Peter prepared a proposal for a nationwide project, which was circulated at the end of May 2019.
By March 2020 it seemed the project, very much as originally envisaged by Peter, was ready to start. However, this was delayed because of the national COVID-19 lockdown, which began on 23 March and meant there was no way any outdoor group activity to survey shops could have been started.
However, as lockdown was eased and non-essential retailers started to reopen, Peter presented his ideas via Zoom to a London Region Summer School on 7 July 2020, which again received an enthusiastic response from an audience of over 200. Two days later his ‘Baseline’ project began. This project would establish a ‘baseline’ across as many parts of the UK, and in as short a time as possible and involved a ‘recording and novel coding methodology’ that was devised by North London u3a member and IT data expert, Mike Klein.
Two weeks of pilots were planned for 7-21 August, with the full survey scheduled to take place during the month of September. The resulting data would be transcribed and assembled on a dedicated website, built up gradually through October, with a Baseline report by Christmas 2020, followed during 2021 by a longitudinal study to observe and measure the changes taking place and to explore ‘why?’.
This could then be extended into more detailed case studies about local High Streets, with
individual u3as working with other interested parties (including other local u3a groups) in SLPs as a ‘High Street Study Group’ and these case studies included in a final report to be published in 2022. We acknowledge the enormous energy and effort put into developing a ‘baseline’ study by both Peter Cox and Mike Klein, without which this current and revised national u3a project could not have happened. Unfortunately, Peter withdrew from active involvement in the project in mid-August 2020 on medical advice. The methodology developed by Mike Klein relied on participation from third parties which did not sit well with a u3a national research project. So he withdrew from the project at this stage. The project steering group introduced a set of online forms which could be completed by project surveyors.
In mid-August 2020, Terms of Reference were drawn up to reflect the repurposing of the project and Michaela Moody was asked to lead a small Project team formed for the purpose of steering this adjusted Research project forward.
The changes made to the original project model reflect: ● a drive to digitise as much of the project as possible;
● feedback from many of the hundreds of volunteer ‘surveyors’ from u3as who had now registered to be involved;
● the Third Age Trust Development plan;
● increasing u3a members’ digital skills in a practical way.
However, many of the broader objectives remain the same, in particular a desire to have u3a groups from as many parts of the UK involved in the project as possible, and the development of the initial 2020 survey into a wide variety of follow-on SLPs during 2021. This will provide a
representative sample which could probably be described as indicative of retail business in the UK, perhaps with biases towards towns and residential areas where most u3a members live (rather than city centres) and with greater representation of London and the South East.
The aim of this project is to raise the profile of the movement by producing a report which will: ● contribute to the national debate underway about the future of our high streets with
reference to the impact of COVID-19
● promote the running of collaborative SLPs across the movement and ● facilitate the development of national research projects on other topics.
It will make a valuable contribution to the u3a Archive and to the 40th anniversary of the movement. The report will be made widely available for future research.
This is also the first major national research project which takes advantage of the technology used by u3a members during the COVID-19 pandemic, encouraging collaboration not previously
undertaken in research projects and increasing members’ digital skills in a practical way. The u3a High Street Project will make full use of the global online world and create the opportunity to build u3a learning communities, which in previous years could never have been imagined.
Section 2 What we have done so far and why
Once Lockdown was lifted in July, Peter Cox convened a Steering Group to plan the repurposing of the original High Street project as a national research project under the auspices of the Trust’s Research Committee. A baseline survey would establish, as far as possible, information relating to the pre-Pandemic position and would include pilots run by a team of volunteers to test the
documentation, instructions and processes used by pilot volunteers. This was based on the
documentation from the first pre-pilots run by Peter Cox in 2018 and assumed few digital skills on the part of the volunteers.
The end of September was identified as the latest date after emergence from Lockdown for the collection of data which might reflect the impact of COVID-19. The ending of the Furlough scheme at the end of October was expected to result in further significant changes brought about directly by the pandemic and lockdown between March and July, including possible further closures and a rise in unemployment.
After Peter Cox retired from active involvement at the end of July 2020, Ian McCannah, u3a national chairman, asked Michaela Moody to take this adjusted research project forward.
Steering group members
• Michaela Moody: Trust Volunteer, Woodhall Spa u3a
• Nelson Blackley: Retail Research Academic at Nottingham Trent University/ Beeston u3a. Unfortunately, having designed this report and drafted the first three sections, he had to withdraw.
• Jo Livingston: Trust Research Committee – Research Ambassador/ Living History Subject Adviser/ Bexley u3a
• Vivek Nanda: Group Convenor and Committee member, Islington u3a/ Communications Coordinator, London Region of u3as
• Maggy Simms: Trust Research Committee -- national SLP Coordinator/ • West Pennine Villages u3a
• Jo Walters: London Region SLP Coordinator/ Orpington u3a
• Catherine Ware: Chair, London Region of u3as/ Research Ambassador/ Merton u3a
Revised terms of reference
Terms of reference were revised to reflect the repurposing of the project to consider the impact of COVID-19 on our high streets.
However, the broader objectives remained the same in that u3a members, as individuals or in groups, would collect data and take photographs of as many local shops as possible in September to establish a baseline for the project. The intention was that during 2021 the survey could be repeated, and the changes noted. Resultant Shared Learning Projects (SLPs) during 2021 would provide a series of local case studies and oral histories from local residents and shopkeepers to give the Survey Report a characteristic u3a hallmark.
● Run a series of pilots in August 2020 to test documentation produced for collection and storage of data for the Baseline Survey to be conducted in September and amended as required.
● Publicise the project, and recruit and register u3a volunteer surveyors to represent as much coverage as possible across the UK.
● Prepare instruction packs for delivery to surveyors by the beginning of September 2020. ● Surveyors to undertake the Baseline Survey by the end of September 2020 in selected local
shopping streets, representing a subset of retail premises around the UK in areas where u3a members live.
● Include, where possible, information on the situation between March and September 2020 where surveyors were able to identify more than one change.
● By the end of September 2020, survey forms and photographs of individual premises to be uploaded to a shared central repository.
● From the end of September 2020:
o validate the archived data and deal with any validation queries; o where necessary, transcribe the survey forms to digital versions;
o consolidate all the archived data to a consistent filing structure with hyperlinks between the data and photographs;
o transfer the data to a database to enable in-depth analysis and reports.
● Produce a Progress Report for presentation to the Trust Board in December 2020, summarising achievements and indicative findings to date.
● Present the Progress Report to the board in January 2021 outlining the next stages of the project
● During 2021, undertake further surveys and analyses of changes in the shopping areas covered by the Baseline Survey and encourage Shared Learning Projects to flesh out the statistical information with social, historical and economic background including oral histories.
● Produce a landmark report in the first half of 2022 which would be published to coincide with u3a’s 40th anniversary and would represent an important addition to the u3a Archive.
Additional objectives emanating from the revised project model
Changes made to the original project model reflect: ● A drive to digitise as much of the project as possible.
● The need to increase the digital skills of u3a members in a practical way.
● Feedback from many of the hundreds of volunteer surveyors leading to a better understanding of managing national u3a research projects
● Association with learning objectives defined in the Third Age Trust Development plan1. u3a learning projects will enter a new era of collaboration, unthought of until now, thanks to the widespread take-up of virtual meetings using Zoom and other video conferencing software during Lockdown and the digital upskilling of u3a members.
The end schedule date is unaltered
The original time frame was foreshortened to ensure that the baseline survey was completed in September 2020 and initial surveys uploaded in October and November, but the publication of the final report remains as scheduled for the first half of 2022.
Project implementation timeline
Baseline stage
In July 2020, while retaining the final aim of reporting back in 2022, a preliminary ‘Baseline’ stage was kick-started; it was designed to establish the post-lockdown position in every shopping area which could be covered by u3a volunteers at such short notice. It was clear that unless we did this by the end of September, any rapidly increasing number of shop closures would make the
resulting survey less authoritative.
Publicity
At the end of July 2020, publicity to recruit members to act as surveyors for the September survey was identified as a prime concern, and the following actions were taken to recruit members across the UK movement:
● A letter from the national chair, Ian McCannah, sent to all u3as by trustees of the nine English regions, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.
● A letter to all Network chairs via the Network Link, sent by Hilary Jones, national vice chair. ● An item in the national Newsletter 7 August 2020.
● An article in Sources Online 21 August 2020. ● An article in the September edition of TAM. ● A Tweet on the national website August 2020.
Surveyor registration
To accommodate details of volunteer surveyors, a simple online registration form was developed by Catherine Ware using the London Region’s Wufoo account. Each individual participant was requested to complete a form. Ease and consistency of data entry were facilitated by the use of appropriate drop-down boxes. Provision was also made to allow those working in groups to identify the Group Name and Group Leader. Although some members withdrew in September 2020, the survey was completed by 537 volunteers from 234 u3as around the country.
Piloting
Pilots in August 2020 tested the survey documentation and the uploading of data from the survey forms. Relatively few problems uploading photos had emerged in this phase, but the difficulties experienced by surveyors who did not have printers and/or scanners were flagged. Marked differences in the level of digital skills possessed by u3a members did not become apparent until the surveys were under way but only 35 participants had taken part in the pilots as opposed to 537 in the survey phase.
Transfer of survey data
The methodology developed by Mike Klein assumed few IT skills and required the completed handwritten survey forms to be scanned and submitted (by email or post) as pdf files to be
transcribed by third parties into his shops2020 database. Photos had to be re-named before uploading to link them with the data. Inclusion of transcribers who would probably not be u3a members did not sit well with a u3a national research project so Mike Klein withdrew from the project.
Time was of the essence, so initially Word and Excel templates were designed by Maggy Simms and Vivek Nanda into which surveyors could transcribe data from their survey forms and insert their photos. The difficulty here was not just the disparity in IT skills of the surveyors but also the challenge of uploading the data from these forms into a mega Excel spreadsheet for analysis. This challenge was overcome by the development of an online form from which data was uploaded directly into the Excel spreadsheet, thus removing one of the stages of data transfer.
Uploaded survey data frozen
Once data uploads had been completed on 22 October 2020, the Shared Drive folders were frozen to allow the data to be pulled into the Excel spreadsheet and a start to be made by Vivek Nanda on the initial analysis. Data transfer status of about 20,000 completed forms is as follows:
● 10,000 from the online form ● 4,000 from Excel forms ● 4,000 from Word forms
● 2,000 from transcriptions of handwritten survey forms
The archive of linked photo originals will be developed in due course.
Surveyor support
Initial support was provided on a one-to-one basis in response to questions from surveyors, but this was very time-consuming. Eventually a programme of weekly Zoom group sessions was established to help surveyors with issues relating to transcribing and uploading data. Interest started to emerge from surveyors in the types of shared learning projects which might follow after the baseline survey was completed and the agreed analysis undertaken.
Open Shared Learning meeting
Over 80 people participated in the Open Shared Learning meeting led by Maggy Simms on 20 November 2020. High Street SLPs among others were aired and presentations were made on various successful u3a SLPs. Those attending were asked to complete a feedback form which was sent out immediately after the meeting to encourage interest in setting up SLPs in 2021.
u3a High Street Project Progress Report
A presentation was made to the Trust Board at its December 2020 meeting. This provided indicative data showing what had been achieved to date, such as
● the project aims and objectives;
● the number of u3as and members participating in the baseline survey; ● the number of retail outlets surveyed, and their location, size and type; ● initial trends emanating from the surveys;
● proposals for local projects to be run by u3as in 2021 stemming from the September 2020 survey, but not exclusively retail oriented.
The u3a High Street Project Progress Report will be presented to the Board in January 2021 and will contain additional information such as
● the main trends emanating from the surveys;
● a project timeline with proposed additional activities leading up to the 40th anniversary of the u3a movement in 2022 and publication of the final report;
● plans for the creation of an interactive, fully searchable database with map and photo front ends.
Anticipated outcomes
The data that has already been uploaded to the Excel spreadsheet has enabled the Project Steering Group (specifically Vivek Nanda and Maggy Simms) to produce reports, charts and other information to facilitate analysis of the Baseline Data.
The ‘Baseline’ survey will be followed by further surveys to enable the project to track changes from the end of September 2020 to the end of September 2021. Final analysis and reporting will be included in the full project report, scheduled for publication in 2022 to coincide with the Trust’s 40th anniversary.
The High Street Task Force2 and other organisations are gathering large scale, high level data and making recommendations to government, but the u3a data will be distinguished by a more in-depth focus on smaller premises likely to be missed by larger surveys and will be enriched by additional information provided by shared learning projects, including oral histories.
Expected impact of the High Street Project
The u3a High Street Project will make full use of the global online world and create the
opportunity to build u3a learning communities which in previous years could never have been imagined. SLPs have until now involved a small number of geographically close u3as, working with an external partner such as a museum, a famous building, a university or other community
organisation.
An additional benefit to u3a has been that project management methods developed during the initial stage of the High Street project will benefit the delivery of further national projects, especially where remote working is necessary. It has clearly highlighted the need for enhanced digital and project management skills as well as the need for ongoing training as the project develops.
We fully expect this project to raise the profile of the u3a movement significantly.
Section
3
Summary outcomes from September Baseline Survey
Instructions and forms used by the volunteer surveyors3 were sent out to 500+ volunteer
surveyors from over 200 u3as across the 9 English regions and the 3 devolved countries for them to enter their survey data and photographs.
The volunteer surveyors found the easiest way to upload the survey data to the project drive was via an interactive online form4 and then to associate it with the relevant photographs. The latter still constitutes an area which needs to be resolved before any follow-up surveys are carried out in 2021.
Survey data
a. 234 u3as and 537 surveyors carried out the baseline survey between 1 and 30 September 2020. No surveys undertaken beyond that date are included in the baseline data.
Survey data transfer
b. Many of the volunteers, members of the project team and those involved in transcribing data from the survey forms helped transfer the data onto the u3aHSP cloud drive.
Survey data locations
c. The current master spreadsheet with the 'Baseline' survey data that has been extracted to date comes to 20,781 lines of data. Taking the Shop Description column as an illustrative example, this breaks down into the following 3 sets of survey data:
i. 880 only have a postcode, with no shop name or description.
ii. a further 401 have a post code & shop name, but no description.
iii. leaving a net 19,500 premises that can potentially be analysed.
3https://sites.google.com/view/u3ahsp/library 4 https://sites.google.com/view/u3ahsp/online-survey-form 4 11 / 4 4 / 4 9 / 6 4 8 / 14 35 / 19 11 / 9 4 6 / 16 37 / 18 10 7/ 56 112 / 26 69 / 33 4 8 / 29 Members 537 U3As 234 Survey data 15/ 10 / 20 20
Baseline and Follow-up Surveys
It is expected that as much as possible of the September 2020 survey will be repeated in September 2021.
There are likely to be u3a groups who did not participate in the September 2020 initial survey but who would now wish to focus their own attention on local high streets. It will not be possible for their data to be incorporated into the national 2020-21 project database but they should
nevertheless be encouraged to pursue their interest locally perhaps by joining with others in separate SLPs.
The analysis of the baseline surveys and re-surveys of the same locations in 2021 will initially focus on identifying what aspects of these places are changing over time and how this might be different across any combination of the following types of information:
• Context – urban, suburban, small town, market town etc
• Locality type – single street, portion of long street, cluster of streets • Street type – through roads, pedestrianised etc
• Business groupings - see Appendix 1
• Premises shape – detached, semi, row etc and indication of size • Type of business – who is it catering for?
• Condition of premises • Parking / public transport
Additional data captured
In addition to the above fields for capturing information about individual premises, the following information was also captured:
• Location of survey • Date of survey • Council • Postcode • Street name • House number • Shop name
Two other 'free-form' fields were provided to capture any information that did not fit into the above structure:
● description of food type (any words you like) ● any further details.
These have not yet been analysed.
Complexity and size of data collected
The following maps and graphic examples of premises surveyed in the SO postcode show the complexity and scope of the data and photos collected, without specific reference to numbers, not all of which have yet been analysed.
A. Premises in Eastleigh
B. Premises in Eastleigh and Southampton C. Shops in Eastleigh
A
B
Section
4
Next steps
We have prepared this Progress report for presentation to the Trust board in January 2021 where we’ll also present plans for building a fully searchable, interactive database with photo and map front ends. We’ll need funding to finalise the database presentation to ensure a professional look and feel.
Learning Projects and inter-u3a collaboration in 2021
We have already started inviting the creation of Learning Projects and collaboration between u3as across the UK with an Open Learning meeting in November 2020; this will be followed by a High Street Project workshop for developing shared learning projects on 26 January 2021. Before the High Street Project began, it was only possible to make one presentation to u3a members and this was in the London region; it resulted in an uneven UK geographical spread of locations covered by the baseline survey. Surveyors have asked for a wider set of presentations to be made across the UK for those members who wish to understand the full scope of the project and the various activities undertaken.
Support of the Trust board
With the support of board trustees, we’d like to extend the coverage of local projects so that a greater number of u3as can be involved. Each region and devolved country is culturally and socially different and we believe this will contribute both to the final report and the scope of the project database.
Project Database
We aim to produce an interactive, fully searchable database with map and photo front ends, linked to 2021 Learning Projects.
Section
5
Resources and Communications
Database Repository
We’ll be starting work on our search for a long-term host for the project data, our website and database in January 2021. We have investigated a number of options so far without success, so ideas from all trustees will be essential to enable us to proceed. We plan to establish contact with Manchester Metropolitan University as they are involved in very large projects such as High Street
UK 2020 (HSUK2020) and Bringing Big Data to Small Users (BDSU) and will work with the trustee
for the North West region to further this.
Project funding
National Archives provide 2 sources of funding which we plan to follow-up with the help of the Director of the London Metropolitan Archive and his team – in particular Networks for Change:
https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/archives-sector/finding-funding/collaborate-and-innovate/archive-testbed-fund/
https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/archives-sector/finding-funding/collaborate-and-innovate/networks-for-change-fund/
Workshop for u3a groups and members
The above workshop, To develop your local ‘High Street-inspired’ project, has been scheduled for Tuesday 26th January and is fully subscribed. Most members have opted to join the Breakout group Change, planning and future visions: the decisions that shaped your High Street and continue to do so, led by Ann Keating. Why were / are decisions made, and is all change for the worse? How can survey data gathered by members illustrate change in action?
U3 High Street project final report for 40th anniversary in 2022
Our role model of what could be achieved with the survey data and pictures we have collected is The London Picture Archive,5 owned and managed by London Metropolitan Archives on behalf of the City of London Corporation. Galleries is a great vision of the front end for what we want to promote for u3a 40th birthday celebrations, which will include the best examples of SLPs from 2021 and other innovative local u3a initiatives.
If we can tap into the relevant expertise from within the u3a or partner with someone who has it, our vision for this u3a National Project is to create an Open Data resource that can be used by u3a members as well as academic researchers and members of the public for all kinds of purposes for decades to come with the ability to easily find the highest quality photograph related to any premises in the database that has been surveyed, at various times, from almost any direction, including postcode, street name, shop name as well as the ten types of information fields identified in Section 3.
Communications
It will be critical to obtain the support of the Communications and External Affairs Committee (CEAC) to promote both u3a’s 40th anniversary and the staggering scale of the information that we have secured - this is the truly "big news" item, plus the organised listing of the many retail- and service-types of the project. We should be seeking national press coverage at the appropriate time to establish the necessary communication links.
Drawing on the enthusiasm of u3a members nationwide, it has proved possible to gather survey data on an unprecedented scale about retail and service outlets on high streets throughout the UK. In 2021, individual u3as are being encouraged to develop their own local ‘High Street Projects’ which will reflect the interests of individual members and the unique approach to learning which is manifested throughout the entire movement.
Some thought will be given to the question that is widely asked in mainstream media: “What, if any, impact has the Covid Pandemic had on the pattern of retail in the UK?” But this cannot be considered until the follow-up survey has been carried out in September 2021 when we will have 12 months’ data to analyse.
The scale of the exercise is impressive. 537 u3a members took part in the September 2020 survey and provided information about a sample of retail and service units in their local areas. The result of this exercise was information provided in respect of more than 22,000 retail shops or service units. Coupled with the expected number of learning projects to be carried out by local u3as in 2021, this represents the most significant national research project undertaken by the u3a movement. It encompassed a scale of rapid digital upskilling and collaboration by u3a members, which had not before been possible.
Business Groupings Appendix 1 From an analysis of 2,000 (10%) of the 20,721 properties that were surveyed in September 2020, the premises have been temporarily analysed into 48 main business groupings. This will be made more comprehensive using all the usable data in the 20,781 rows of master spreadsheet with the 'Baseline' survey data.
Group No % Group No %
Arts & Crafts 305 1.5 Ladies’ Wear 886 4.5
Baby & Children 124 0.6 Laundry 188 1.0
Banks & Building Societies 332 1.7 Leisure, Exercise & Sports 335 1.7
Betting Shops 289 1.5 Men’s Wear 119 0.6
Books & Stationery 197 1.0 Municipal Services 299 1.5
Cafes & Coffee Shops 917 4.7 Newsagents, Tobacco, Sweets 339 1.7
Charity Shops 774 3.9 Off Licences 127 0.6
Chemists 501 2.5 Offices 218 1.1
Churches 51 0.3 Personal Care 2,229 11.3
Department & Discount Stores 127 0.6 Pet Services 202 1.0
Education 56 0.3 Phones 273 1.4
Electronics, TVs & Computing 301 1.5 Post Offices 106 0.5
Estate Agents 704 3.6 Professional Services 748 3.8
Florists 148 0.8 Public Houses & Bars 409 2.1
Food (excluding Supermarkets) 983 5.0 Restaurants 997 5.1
Footwear 264 1.3 Sportswear & Outerwear 148 0.8
Funeral Directors 176 0.9 Supermarkets & Convenience 511 2.6 Furniture Bedding & Flooring 319 1.6 Takeaway (Hot & Cold) 854 4.3
Garden Centres & DIY 46 0.2 Trades 303 1.5
Gifts & Cards 403 2.0 Transport 37 0.2
Health Care 806 4.1 Travel Agents 160 0.8
Hotels 65 0.3 Vacant Premises 1,486 7.5
Housewares 525 2.7 Vehicle Sales & Services 199 1.0
Jewellers 235 1.2
For the final baseline report, we hope the above temporary form of analysis will be replaced by using the relevant Standard Industrial Classification codes (SICs). This a standard business coding structure used by government and industry for data collection and analysis purposes.
