NOTES D’ÉTUDES
ET DE RECHERCHE
DIRECTION GÉNÉRALE DES ÉTUDES
LA THEORIE DES ANTICIPATIONS DE LA
STRUCTURE PAR TERME :
TEST A PARTIR DES TITRES PUBLICS FRANÇAIS
Eric Jondeau et Roland Ricart
septembre 1997
DIRECTION GÉNÉRALE DES ÉTUDES
DIRECTION DES ÉTUDES ÉCONOMIQUES ET DE LA RECHERCHE
LA THEORIE DES ANTICIPATIONS DE LA
STRUCTURE PAR TERME :
TEST A PARTIR DES TITRES PUBLICS FRANÇAIS
Eric Jondeau et Roland Ricart
septembre 1997
NER # 45
Les Notes d'Études et de Recherche reflètent les idées personnelles de leurs auteurs et n'expriment pas nécessairement la position de la Banque de France.
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Gh qrpeuhxvhv ìwxghv rqw fkhufkì ã ydolghu od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv1 Hq o*devhqfh gh grqqìhv vsìfl txhv vxu ohv dqwlflsdwlrqv ghv lqyhvwlvvhxuv +frpph ghv grqqìhv g*hqtxíwh,/ oh whvw sruwh hq idlw vxu o*k|srwkëvh mrlqwh g*devhqfh g*rssruwx0 qlwì g*duelwudjh hw gh udwlrqdolwì ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv1 F*hvw vxu fhwwh edvh tx*rqw ìwì frqvwuxlwv od soxsduw ghv whvwv hpslultxhv 41
Ohv whvwv phqìv vxu ohv wdx{ ã orqj whuph dpìulfdlqv sdu Fdpsehoo hw Vkloohu +4<;:/ 4<;; hw 4<<4, hw Fdpsehoo +4<<8, frqgxlvhqw jìqìudohphqw ã uhmhwhu od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv hw ã phwwuh hq ìylghqfh oh sx}}oh vxlydqw = doruv txh od wkìrulh suìglw xq frh!flhqw xqlwdluh/ od uìjuhvvlrq gh od yduldwlrq gx wdx{ orqj vxu od shqwh ghv wdx{ grqqh xq frh!flhqw jìqìudohphqw qìjdwli/ hw od uìjuhvvlrq gh od yduldwlrq pr|hqqh vxu orqjxh sìulrgh gx wdx{ frxuw vxu od shqwh grqqh xq frh!flhqw srvlwli pdlv lqiìulhxu ã 41 Fh uìvxowdw d ìwì frq upì sdu od vxlwh srxu ohv wlwuhv frxuwv dpìulfdlqv +Hydqv hw Ohzlv/ 4<<7,1 Hq uhydqfkh/ ohv ìwxghv uìfhqwhv q*rqw sx uhmhwhu od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv srxu g*dxwuhv sd|v/ qrwdpphqw hxursìhqv/ txh fh vrlw srxu ghv wlwuhv orqjv +Mrulrq hw Plvknlq/ 4<<4/ Kdugrxyholv/ 4<<7/ Jhuodfk/ 4<<9, rx srxu ghv wlwuhv frxuwv +Plvknlq/ 4<<4/ Jhuodfk hw Vphwv/ 4<<: srxu xqh frpsdudlvrq lqwhuqdwlrqdoh > Kxuq hw doll/ 4<<8/ hw Fxwkehuwvrq/ 4<<9/ vxu grqqìhv eulwdqqltxhv > Gdkotxlvw hw Mrqvvrq/ 4<<8 vxu grqqìhv vxìgrlvhv > Mrqghdx hw Ulfduw/ 4<<9/ vxu grqqìhv iudqêdlvhv,1
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O*rujdqlvdwlrq gx sdslhu hvw od vxlydqwh1 Od vhfwlrq 5 suìvhqwh vxfflqfwhphqw od pìwkrgrorjlh gh Qhovrq hw Vlhjho +4<;:,/ uhwhqxh srxu o*lqwhusrodwlrq ghv frxuehv gh wdx{ }ìur0frxsrq/ hw glvfxwh o*ruguh g*lqwìjudwlrq ghv vìulhv gh wdx{ g*lqwìuíw rewhqxhv1 Od vhfwlrq 6 sdvvh hq uhyxh ohv sulqflsdohv k|srwkëvhv gh od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv hw phw hq ìylghqfh/ srxu ohv wdx{ orqjv iudqêdlv/ xq sx}}oh vhpeodeoh ã fhoxl uhqfrqwuì/ vxu grqqìhv dpìulfdlqhv/ gdqv oh fdguh ghv whvwv sursrvìv sdu Fdpsehoo hw Vkloohu1 Od vhfwlrq 7 hvw frqvdfuìh ã o*ìwxgh gh od vwdwlrqqdulwì ghv h{fëv gh uhqghphqw hw ã od uhsuìvhqwdwlrq vrxv iruph ã fruuhfwlrq g*huuhxu gx whvw gh od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv > g*xq f÷wì/ o*h{fëv gh uhqghphqw gh fdslwdolvdwlrq +dvvrflì ã ghv sodfhphqwv vxffhvvliv vxu orqjxh sìulrgh, dssdudñw qrq0vwdwlrqqdluh/ srxu od soxsduw ghv pdwxulwìv > gh o*dxwuh f÷wì/ o*h{fëv gh uhqghphqw gh sruwdjh +dvvrflì ã ghv sodfhphqwv hq wlwuhv orqjv vxu frxuwh sìulrgh, vhpeoh fodluhphqw vwdwlrqqdluh/ txhooh txh vrlw od pdwxulwì hw oh whvw phqì ã sduwlu gx prgëoh ã fruuhfwlrq g*huuhxu qh shuphw sdv gh uhmhwhu od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv1 Od vhfwlrq 8 frqfoxw oh sdslhu1
5 Ohv grqqìhv = frqvwuxfwlrq hw sursulìwìv vwdwlvwltxhv
514 Od uhfrqvwlwxwlrq ghv frxuehv gh wdx{
Frpph gdqv gh qrpeuhx{ sd|v/ od furlvvdqfh gh o*hqghwwhphqw sxeolf hq Iudqfh hvw xq skìqrpëqh uhodwlyhphqw uìfhqw gdwdqw gx gìexw ghv dqqìhv txdwuh0ylqjw1 Pdlv o*h ruw g*kduprqlvdwlrq hw g*krprjìqìlvdwlrq ghv ìplvvlrqv gh wlwuhv sxeolfv +ghvwlqì ã idyrulvhu od oltxlglwì gx pdufkì, d ìwì phqì sdu ohv dxwrulwìv sxeoltxhv soxv wduglyh0 phqw/ ã sduwlu gh 4<;80;9 = lo d gìexwì dyhf od fuìdwlrq ghv Reoljdwlrqv Dvvlplodeohv gx Wuìvru +od suhplëuh RDW d ìwì ìplvh hq pdl 4<;8,/ doruv txh ohv Erqv gx Wuì0 vru Qìjrfldeohv rqw idlw ohxu dssdulwlrq hq mdqylhu 4<;91 Dlqvl/ mxvtx*dx plolhx ghv dqqìhv txdwuh0ylqjw/ oh pdufkì ghv wlwuhv sxeolfv iudqêdlv d uhsrvì vxu g*dqflhqqhv fdwìjrulhv gh wlwuhv hw ìwdlw ã od irlv shx oltxlgh hw shx krprjëqh = frh{lvwdlhqw ghv Uhqwhv Shusìwxhoohv rx Dpruwlvvdeohv +mxvtx*hq 4<;:,/ ghv Hpsuxqwv g*Hwdw +ã sduwlu gh 4<:9,/ pdlv ìjdohphqw ghv wlwuhv soxv vsìfl txhv +frpph ohv Reoljdwlrqv gx Wuìvru rx ohv Hpsuxqwv Qdwlrqdx{,1
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6Fh sureoëph hvw dffhqwxì sdu o*devhqfh gh wlwuhv sxeolfv gh frxuw whuph frwìv +ohv Erqv gx Wuìvru
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sdudpëwuhv hvw grqf hvwlpì/ lqgìshqgdpphqw/ srxu fkdtxh gdwh w1
515 O*ruguh g*lqwìjudwlrq ghv wdx{ g*lqwìuíw
Ohv grqqìhv frqfhuqdqw ohv wlwuhv sxeolfv rqw ìwì froohfwìhv ã sduwlu gh od Frwh R!0 flhooh/ srxu oh ghuqlhu mrxu rxyuì gh fkdtxh prlv dx frxuv gh od sìulrgh 4<;304<<81 D sduwlu gh o*lqwhusrodwlrq ghv frxuehv ghv wdx{ }ìur0frxsrq phqvxhoohv/ xqh edvh frqwhqdqw ohv wdx{ ã 4 dq/ 5 dqv/ 111/ 43 dqv d ìwì frqvwlwxìh1
Oh wdeohdx 4 shuphw gh suìflvhu o*ruguh g*lqwìjudwlrq ghv vìulhv gh wdx{ g*lqwìuíw/ ã wudyhuv ohv whvwv DGI +Glfnh| hw Ixoohu/ 4<:<, hw NS VV +Nzldwnrzvnl hw doll/ 4<<5,1 Oh suhplhu whvw frqvlgëuh o*k|srwkëvh qxooh gh qrq0vwdwlrqqdulwì gx surfhvvxv/ doruv txh oh vhfrqg frqvlgëuh o*k|srwkëvh qxooh gh vwdwlrqqdulwì1 Ohv whvwv rqw ìwì uìdolvìv ã od irlv vxu ohv yduldeohv hq qlyhdx +whvw L+4, frqwuh L+3, hw L+3, frqwuh L+4,/ uhvshfwlyhphqw, hw vxu ohv yduldeohv hq gl ìuhqfh suhplëuh +whvw L+5, frqwuh L+4, hw L+4, frqwuh L+5,/ uhvshfwlyhphqw,1 Ohv uìvxowdwv lqgltxhqw fodluhphqw txh/ txhooh txh vrlw od pdwxulwì frqvlgìuìhv/ o*k|srwkëvh gh udflqh xqlwdluh qh shxw sdv íwuh uhmhwìh srxu ohv wdx{ g*lqwìuíw1 Hq uhydqfkh/ o*k|srwkëvh gh udflqh xqlwdluh hvw v|vwìpdwltxhphqw uhmhwìh srxu ohv yduldwlrqv gh wdx{ g*lqwìuíw1 Ohv wdx{ g*lqwìuíw shxyhqw grqf íwuh frqvlgìuìv frpph L+4,81
Hq fh txl frqfhuqh ohv shqwhv gh wdx{ ylv0ã0ylv gx wdx{ ã 4 dq/ ohv whvwv DGI whqghqw ã uhmhwhu od qrq0vwdwlrqqdulwì srxu ohv pdwxulwìv ohv soxv frxuwhv +405 dqv ã 407 dqv,1 Hq uhydqfkh/ ohv whvwv NSVV qh shxyhqw uhmhwhu od vwdwlrqqdulwì srxu o*hqvhpeoh ghv pdwxulwìv dx vhxlo gh 8(1
6 Oh sx}}oh ghv whvwv xvxhov
614 Oh fdguh wkìrultxh
Oh uhqghphqw g*xq wlwuh orqj +gh pdwxulwì q, shxw íwuh gìfrpsrvì hq ghx{ ìoìphqwv = od pr|hqqh ghv uhqghphqwv dqwlflsìv gh sodfhphqwv vxffhvvliv/ hq w/ w . p/ 111/ w .
8Hq wkìrulh/ ohv wdx{ g*lqwìuíw qh shxyhqw sdv suìvhqwhu gh udflqh xqlwdluh/ sxlvtx*lov vrqw eruqìv
sdu }ìur1 Qìdqprlqv/ ohxu frpsruwhphqw dssdudñw vx!vdpphqw surfkh/ vxu od sìulrgh ìwxglìh hw dyhf od iuìtxhqfh uhwhqxh/ gh od vwdwlrqqdulwì hq gl ìuhqfh +od udflqh hvw vx!vdpphqw surfkh gh 4, srxu txh o*rq sxlvvh ohv frqvlgìuhu frpph hqjhqguìv sdu ghv surfhvvxv UE 1
q p/ hq wlwuhv frxuwv +gh pdwxulwì p, soxv xqh sulph gh ulvtxh +glwh sulph gh fdslwdolvdwlrq,/ qrq revhuydeoh/ qrwìh fE6c? | 1 Fhwwh ìjdolwì shxw v*ìfuluh 9 =
UE? | @ H|k E6c? | . fE6c? | +7,
rü UE? | hvw oh uhqghphqw hq w g*xq wlwuh gh pdwxulwì q > k E6c? | @ 6? S
? 63
'f UE6 |n6 hvw
oh uhqghphqw gh fdslwdolvdwlrq/ f*hvw0ã0gluh od pr|hqqh ghv uhqghphqwv gh sodfhphqwv vxffhvvliv/ hq w/ w.p/ 111/ hw w.qp/ hq wlwuhv gh pdwxulwì p > ?
6 hvw vxssrvì hqwlhu >
H| hvw o*hvsìudqfh frqglwlrqqhooh ã o*lqirupdwlrq glvsrqleoh hq w1 Qrxv frqvlgìurqv lfl
oh fdv gh erqv }ìur0frxsrq/ txl fruuhvsrqg dx{ grqqìhv xwlolvìhv gdqv o*dssolfdwlrq hpslultxh1
Xqh vhfrqgh sulph gh ulvtxh +glwh sulph gh sruwdjh,/ qrwìh *E6c? | / hvw gì qlh sdu
o*ìjdolwì vxlydqwh =
H|kE6c? | @ UE6 | . *E6c? | +8,
rü kE6c? | @
qUE? | +q p,U|n6E?36
@p hvw oh uhqghphqw gh sruwdjh/ f*hvw0ã0gluh oh uhqghphqw olì ã o*dfkdw hq w g*xq wlwuh gh pdwxulwì q hw uhyhqgx hq w.p +p ? q,:1
Od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv lpsoltxh txh ohv sulphv gh fdslwdolvdwlrq hw gh sruwdjh grlyhqw íwuh frqvwdqwhv dx frxuv gx whpsv/ píph vl hoohv shxyhqw ydulhu dyhf ohv pdwxulwìv p hw q = fE6c? | @ fE6c? / *E6c? | @ *E6c? / ;w;1
Xqh olwwìudwxuh derqgdqwh d sruwì vxu oh whvw ghv lpsolfdwlrqv gh od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv1 Fdpsehoo hw Vkloohu +4<;:/ 4<;; hw 4<<4, rqw sursrvì ghv irupxodwlrqv/ lvvxhv gluhfwhphqw ghv ìtxdwlrqv +7, hw +8,/ dyhf od shqwh ghv wdx{ frpph uìjuhvvhxu<1
Od suhplëuh uhsuìvhqwdwlrq hvw irqgìh vxu od uhodwlrq hqwuh od yduldwlrq dqwlflsìh vxu p sìulrghv gx uhqghphqw g*xq wlwuh orqj hw od shqwh ghv wdx{1 Hooh hvw rewhqxh hq uìduudqjhdqw ohv whuphv gh o*ìtxdwlrq +8, hw hq lpsrvdqw *E6c? | @ *E6c? / ;w =
q p p H|UE?36 |n6 UE? | @ V|E6c? *E6c? +9,
rü V|E6c? @ U|E? UE6 | hvw od shqwh hq w hqwuh ohv wdx{ ã q hw ã p sìulrghv1
Od ghx{lëph uhsuìvhqwdwlrq hvw irqgìh vxu od uhodwlrq hqwuh od yduldwlrq pr|hqqh dqwlflsìh vxu orqjxh sìulrgh ghv wdx{ frxuwv ixwxuv hw od shqwh ghv wdx{1 Hooh v*re0 wlhqw gluhfwhphqw hq vrxvwud|dqw oh wdx{ frxuw suìvhqw UE6 | dx{ ghx{ phpeuhv gh
o*ìtxdwlrq +7, hw hq lpsrvdqw fE6c? | @ fE6c? / ;w =
H|V|WE6c? H|k| E6c? U|E6 @ V|E6c? fE6c? +:,
9Fhwwh ìfulwxuh/ sursrvìh lqlwldohphqw sdu Vkloohu +4<:<,/ frqvwlwxh xqh dssur{lpdwlrq olqìdluh
gh od uhodwlrq/ qrq olqìdluh/ g*devhqfh g*rssruwxqlwìv g*duelwudjh hqwuh xq sodfhphqw frxuw hw xq sodfhphqw orqj1 Vkloohu hw doll +4<;6, rqw prqwuì txh o*huuhxu g*dssur{lpdwlrq hvw vx!vdpphqw shwlwh srxu srxyrlu íwuh qìjoljìh gdqv ohv dssolfdwlrqv sudwltxhv1
:Hq lwìudqw yhuv oh ixwxu od uhodwlrq +8, hw hq vrppdqw ohv whuphv/ od sulph gh fdslwdolvdwlrq
v*h{sulph frpph xqh pr|hqqh gh sulphv gh sruwdjh = SE6c? | '6? Sq
p3
'f .|)E6c?36 |n6 1
;Vhorq od wkìrulh sxuh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv/ ohv sulphv dvvrflìhv dx{ gl ìuhqwhv yhuvlrqv gh od
wkìrulh vrqw qxoohv1 Ru/ gdqv xq prgëoh hq whpsv frqwlqx dyhf wdx{ g*lqwìuíw doìdwrluh/ Fr{ hw doll +4<;4, rqw prqwuì txh fhv gl ìuhqwhv yhuvlrqv vrqw pxwxhoohphqw lqfrpsdwleohv +sdu h{hpsoh/ rq qh shxw sdv dyrlu o*ìtxlydohqw hq whpsv frqwlqx gh +7, hw +8, vl SE6c? | hw )E6c? | vrqw qxov,1 Fdpsehoo
+4<;9, d wrxwhirlv plv hq ìylghqfh txh ohv gl ìuhqwhv yhuvlrqv gh od wkìrulh qh vrqw sdv qìfhvvdluhphqw lqfrpsdwleohv/ vl ohv sulphv vrqw vxssrvìhv frqvwdqwhv qrq qxoohv1
<G*dxwuhv irupxodwlrqv rqw ìjdohphqw ìwì ìwxglìhv/ irqgìhv qrwdpphqw vxu oh wdx{ ã whuph +Idpd/
4<;7 hw 4<<3/ Idpd hw Eolvv/ 4<;:,1
rü V|WE6c? hvw od yduldwlrq pr|hqqh hqwuh w hw w . q ghv wdx{ frxuwv ixwxuv1 Fhv
ìfulwxuhv suhqqhqw hq frpswh ohv sursulìwìv gh qrq0vwdwlrqqdulwì ghv wdx{ g*lqwìuíw/ sxlvtxh ohv yduldeohv hqgrjëqhv hw h{rjëqhv gh +9, hw +:, vrqw wrxwhv vwdwlrqqdluhv oruvtxh ohv wdx{ g*lqwìuíw vrqw L+4, hw txh od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv hvw ydolgh1
615 Ohv uìvxowdwv hpslultxhv
Ohv whvwv ghv lpsolfdwlrqv gh od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv/ irqgìv vxu o*hvwlpdwlrq ghv vsìfl fdwlrqv +9, hw +:,/ qìfhvvlwhqw xqh k|srwkëvh vxssoìphqwdluh vxu oh prgh gh irupdwlrq ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv = ohv djhqwv ìfrqrpltxhv vrqw vxssrvìv udwlrqqhov1 Od frqwuhsduwlh hpslultxh gh +9, v*ìfulw doruv =
q p p U|n6E?36 U|E? @ . V|E6c? . %|n6 +;,
Frpph gdqv od vxlwh/ ohv sdudpëwuhv grlyhqw íwuh lqglfìv sdu ohv pdwxulwìv p hw q > fhv lqglfhv vrqw wrxwhirlv rplv srxu dooìjhu ohv qrwdwlrqv1 Od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv lpsoltxh txh ohv sdudpëwuhv dvvrflìv dx{ pdwxulwìv p hw q yìul hqw = @ *E6c? /
@ 41 Gdqv fh fdv/ o*h{fëv gh uhqghphqw gh sruwdjh %|n6 vh gìfrpsrvh doruv vrxv
od iruph = %|n6@ q pp |n6. *E6c? | *E6c? +<, rü |n6@ UE?36 |n6 H|UE?36 |n6 hvw o*huuhxu g*dqwlflsdwlrq hq w frqfhuqdqw oh wdx{ ã q p sìulrghv hq w . p hw rü*E6c? | *E6c?
hvw o*ìyhqwxhooh frpsrvdqwh yduldeoh gh od sulph gh sruwdjh1
Gëv txh o*krul}rq gh suìylvlrq p gìsdvvh xq prlv/ ohv dqwlflsdwlrqv idlwhv ã ghv gdwhv surfkhv xwlolvhqw xqh lqirupdwlrq sduwlhoohphqw frppxqh hw ohv huuhxuv g*dqwlf0 lsdwlrq suìvhqwhqw xqh fhuwdlqh iruph g*dxwrfruuìodwlrq1 Soxv suìflvìphqw/ oh whuph uìvlgxho gh +;, suìvhqwh d sulrul/ píph vl ohv dqwlflsdwlrqv vrqw udwlrqqhoohv/ xqh frp0 srvdqwh pr|hqqh preloh g*ruguh +p 4,1 Dlqvl ohv huuhxuv g*dqwlflsdwlrq/ kruv h hwv g*ryhuodsslqj/ grlyhqw íwuh qrq dxwrfruuìoìhv/ f*hvw0ã0gluh txh
|n6 qh grlw sdv íwuh
fruuìoì dyhf |1
Gh od píph pdqlëuh/ od frqwuhsduwlh hpslultxh gh +:, v*ìfulw =
V|WE6c? @ 2. 2V|E6c? . %2|n?36 +43,
dyhf/ oruvtxh od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv hvw ydolgh/ od gìfrpsrvlwlrq gh o*h{fëv gh uhqghphqw gh fdslwdolvdwlrq %2 |n?36 vrxv od iruph = %2 |n?36 @ 2|n?36 fE6c? | fE6c? +44, rü 2 |n?36 @ k E6c? | H|k E6c? |
hvw o*huuhxu g*dqwlflsdwlrq frqfhuqdqw oh uhqgh0 phqw gh fdslwdolvdwlrq gh wlwuhv ã p sìulrghv shqgdqw q sìulrghv1 Frpswh whqx gh o*ryhuodsslqj/ oh whuph uìvlgxho %2
|n?36 d xqh frpsrvdqwh pr|hqqh preloh g*ruguh
+q p 4,1
Oh wdeohdx 5 suìvhqwh ohv hvwlpdwlrqv ghv ìtxdwlrqv +;, hw +43, srxu ohv wlwuhv sxeolfv iudqêdlv srxu od sìulrgh 4<;30<81 Frpph fhod d gìmã ìwì qrwì sdu gh qrp0 euhx{ dxwhxuv srxu g*dxwuhv sd|v +Vkloohu hw doll/ 4<;6/ Fdpsehoo hw Vkloohu/ 4<<4/ Kdugrxyholv/ 4<<7/ Hydqv hw Ohzlv/ 4<<7/ Fdpsehoo/ 4<<8,/ oh frh!flhqw gh od shqwh
gdqv od uìjuhvvlrq +;, hvw jìqìudohphqw qìjdwli/ doruv txh od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsd0 wlrqv suìglw xq frh!flhqw xqlwdluh1 Gh soxv/ oh frh!flhqw gh od shqwh gìfurñw dyhf od pdwxulwì q gx wlwuh orqj/ sdvvdqw gh 03/45 srxu q @ 5 ã 06/<4 srxu q @ 431
Ohv uìvxowdwv rewhqxv srxu o*ìtxdwlrq +43, vrqw/ frpph gdqv ohv ìwxghv gìmã flwìhv/ soxv idyrudeohv ã od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv = oh frh!flhqw gh od shqwh hvw suhvtxh v|vwìpdwltxhphqw srvlwli/ pdlv qhwwhphqw lqiìulhxu ã 4 hw gìfurñw vhqvleohphqw dyhf o*krul}rq ghv sodfhphqwv/ gh 3/77 srxu q @ 5 ã 03/34 srxu q @ 431
Oh whvw sursuhphqw glw gh od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv uhsrvh vxu od vwdwlvwltxh gh Vwxghqw dvvrflìh ã + 4, gdqv ohv uìjuhvvlrqv +;, hw +43,1 Frpph ohv krul}rqv
gh sodfhphqw gìsdvvhqw lfl od sìulrglflwì ghv grqqìhv +ohv grqqìhv vrqw phqvxhoohv/ doruv txh o*krul}rq gh sodfhphqw oh soxv frxuw hvw g*xq dq,/ fhwwh vwdwlvwltxh grlw íwuh fruuljìh gh od frpsrvdqwh pr|hqqh preloh gdqv oh surfhvvxv ghv huuhxuv1 Od vwdwlvwltxh gh Vwxghqw hvw doruv irqgìh vxu o*ìfduw0w|sh dv|pswrwltxh gx sdudpëwuh431
Ohv whvwv g*ìjdolwì ã 4 gx sdudpëwuh gh od shqwh qxdqfhqw gdqv xqh fhuwdlqh phvxuh fhv frqfoxvlrqv gìidyrudeohv srxu od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv1 Hq h hw/ ohv whvwv phqìv srxu o*ìtxdwlrq +;, frqgxlvhqw ã qh sdv uhmhwhu o*k|srwkëvh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv/ dx vhxlo gh 43(/ srxu ohv frpelqdlvrqv gh pdwxulwìv doodqw gh 405 dqv ã 409 dqv1 Hq fh txl frq0 fhuqh o*ìtxdwlrq +43, hq uhydqfkh/ oh uhmhw gh o*k|srwkëvh qxooh hvw txdvl v|vwìpdwltxh/ ã o*h{fhswlrq gx frxsoh gh pdwxulwìv 405 dqv1
Oh sx}}oh plv hq ìylghqfh vxu grqqìhv dpìulfdlqhv sdu Fdpsehoo hw Vkloohu d ghx{ fdudfwìulvwltxhv sulqflsdohv = xq frh!flhqw v|vwìpdwltxhphqw qìjdwli srxu od uhodwlrq +;,/ xq frh!flhqw lqiìulhxu ã 4 srxu od uhodwlrq +43,1 Frpph fruroodluh/ od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv hvw uhmhwìh gdqv oh suhplhu fdv/ dffhswìh gdqv oh vhfrqg1 Ohv uìvxowdwv rewhqxv vxu ohv wlwuhv orqjv iudqêdlv dx frxuv gh od sìulrgh 4<;30<8 frq uphqw fodluhphqw oh sx}}oh frqfhuqdqw oh vljqh ghv frh!flhqwv> hq uhydqfkh/ ohv whvwv phqìv qh shuphwwhqw sdv gh frq uphu oh fruroodluh = o*ìjdolwì ã 4 gx sdudpëwuh gh od shqwh ghv wdx{ hvw vrxyhqw dffhswìh srxu od uhodwlrq +;, pdlv hq jìqìudo uhmhwìh srxu od uhodwlrq +43,1
7 Od vwdwlrqqdulwì ghv h{fëv gh uhqghphqw
Ghx{ h{solfdwlrqv vrqw frxudpphqw dydqfìhv srxu uhqguh frpswh gx uhmhw gh od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv44 =
0 od suhplëuh h{solfdwlrq hvw o*h{lvwhqfh g*xqh sulph gh ulvtxh yduldeoh dx frxuv gx whpsv/ vwdwlrqqdluh hw fruuìoìh dyhf od shqwh ghv wdx{ +Idpd/ 4<;7/ rx Hydqv hw Ohzlv/ 4<<7,1 Hooh uhphw fodluhphqw hq fdxvh o*xqh ghv k|srwkëvhv gh edvh gh od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv/ sxlvtx*hooh lqgltxh txh od shqwh ghv wdx{ frqwlhqw gh o*lqirupdwlrq ã od irlv vxu ohv wdx{ ixwxuv dqwlflsìv/ pdlv ìjdohphqw vxu od sulph gh ulvtxh1
43O*ìfduw0w|sh dv|pswrwltxh hvw fdofxoì gh od idêrq vxlydqwh = od pdwulfh gh yduldqfh0fryduldqfh ghv
uìvlgxv hvw prgl ìh sdu od fruuhfwlrq gh Kdqvhq hw Krgulfn +4<;3,/ txl shuphw gh suhqguh hq frpswh o*h{lvwhqfh g*xqh frpsrvdqwh pr|hqqh preloh gdqv oh surfhvvxv ghv huuhxuv/ hw sdu od fruuhfwlrq gh Zklwh +4<;3,/ whqdqw frpswh gh o*ìyhqwxhooh kìwìurvfìgdvwlflwì ghv huuhxuv > hq q/ hooh hvw prgl ìh frpph vxjjìuì sdu Qhzh| hw Zhvw +4<;:, srxu dvvxuhu vd vhpl0srvlwlylwì1
44Fdpsehoo +4<<8, vxjjëuh txh oh sx}}oh srxuudlw íwuh olì ã o*h{lvwhqfh g*huuhxuv gh phvxuh vxu oh
wdx{ ã orqj whuph/ txl eldlvhudlw yhuv 04 oh frh!flhqw gh od shqwh gdqv o*ìtxdwlrq gh wdx{ orqj +;, hw yhuv 3 oh frh!flhqw gh od shqwh gdqv o*ìtxdwlrq gh wdx{ frxuw +43,1 Ehndhuw hw doll +4<<9, sursrvhqw xqh dxwuh h{solfdwlrq gx sx}}oh/ vhorq odtxhooh oh eldlv gdqv o*hvwlpdwlrq ghv frh!flhqwv gh od shqwh vhudlw gþ ã xqh shuvlvwdqfh ìohyìh gdqv od g|qdpltxh gx wdx{ ã frxuw whuph1 Lo dssdudñw qìdqprlqv txh fhwwh shuvlvwdqfh ghyudlw eldlvhu ohv frh!flhqwv gh od shqwh yhuv ohv ydohxuv srvlwlyhv1 Fhv ghx{ dssurfkhv dowhuqdwlyhv q*rqw wrxwhirlv sdv grqqì gh uìvxowdwv hpslultxhv frqydlqfdqwv1
0 od vhfrqgh h{solfdwlrq hvw od vxu0uìdfwlrq ghv wdx{ orqjv sdu udssruw dx{ wdx{ frxuwv ixwxuv +Pdqnlz hw Vxpphuv/ 4<;7/ Fdpsehoo hw Vkloohu/ 4<<4/ Kdugrxyholv/ 4<<7,1 Fhwwh k|srwkëvh uhphw gluhfwhphqw hq fdxvh o*k|srwkëvh gh udwlrqdolwì ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv = od shqwh ghv wdx{ frqwlhqw/ frpph gdqv od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv/ gh o*lqirupdwlrq vxu ohv wdx{ frxuwv ixwxuv dqwlflsìv/ pdlv ohv lqyhvwlvvhxuv dffrughqw soxv gh srlgv dx{ wdx{ ixwxuv tx*lov qh oh ghyudlhqw1
Píph v*lo vhpeoh gl!floh gh glvfulplqhu hqwuh fhv ghx{ h{solfdwlrqv hq o*devhqfh g*lqirupdwlrq vxssoìphqwdluh +frpph ghv grqqìhv g*hqtxíwh,/ oh uhmhw gh od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv sdudñw ghyrlu v*h{soltxhu sdu o*h{lvwhqfh g*xqh fruuìodwlrq hqwuh od shqwh ghv wdx{ hw xqh yduldeoh pdqtxdqwh vwdwlrqqdluh +txl h{soltxhudlw doruv od g|0 qdpltxh gh o*h{fëv gh uhqghphqw,1 Fhw dujxphqw hvw frq upì sdu fhuwdlqhv ìwxghv1 Ohv sursulìwìv vwdwlvwltxhv ghv h{fëv gh uhqghphqw rqw hq h hw ìwì derugìhv vrxv fhw dqjoh sdu fhuwdlqv dxwhxuv1 Hydqv hw Ohzlv +4<<7,/ vxssrvdqw ohv dqwlflsdwlrqv ud0 wlrqqhoohv/ lqwhusuëwhqw od vwdwlrqqdulwì gh od sulph gh ulvtxh frpph xqh lpsolfdwlrq plqlpdoh gh od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv1 Lov whvwhqw doruv od vwdwlrqqdulwì ghv h{fëv gh uhqghphqw/ ã wudyhuv o*h{lvwhqfh gh uhodwlrqv gh frlqwìjudwlrq hqwuh ghv uhqgh0 phqwv gì qlv gh idêrq dgìtxdwh1 Kdugrxyholv +4<<7,/ fkhufkdqw ã phwwuh hq ìylghqfh xq skìqrpëqh gh vxu0uìdfwlrq/ h{soltxh oh eldlv vxu oh sdudpëwuh gh od shqwh gdqv o*ìtxdwlrq +;, sdu od fruuìodwlrq hqwuh od shqwh hw xqh yduldeoh pdqtxdqwh/ od yduldwlrq gx wdx{ frxuw/ tx*lo lqwhusuëwh frpph xqh sur{| gh o*huuhxu g*dqwlflsdwlrq1 Gh píph/ W}dydolv hw Zlfnhqv +4<<9, ìwhqghqw oh prgëoh YDU elydulì sursrvì sdu Fdpsehoo hw Vkloohu +4<;:, +frqwhqdqw od yduldwlrq gx wdx{ frxuw hw od shqwh ghv wdx{,/ hq dmrxwdqw o*h{fëv gh uhqghphqw gh sruwdjh/ gh idêrq ã rewhqlu xqh uhsuìvhqwdwlrq vwdwlrqqdluh gh fhwwh yduldeoh1
Xqh dssurfkh dowhuqdwlyh shxw íwuh irqgìh vxu od uhfrqqdlvvdqfh h{solflwh gx fdu0 dfwëuh g|qdpltxh ghv h{fëv gh uhqghphqw1 Hq h hw/ vl ohv h{fëv gh uhqghphqw vrqw vwdwlrqqdluhv pdlv qrq euxlwv eodqfv/ lov vrqw hq sduwlh suìylvleohv/ hw xqh suìylvlrq rswlpdoh ghv wdx{ ixwxuv ghyudlw suhqguh hq frpswh od frpsrvdqwh suìylvleoh ghv h{0 fëv gh uhqghphqw1 Ohv ìtxdwlrqv +7, hw +8, shxyhqw v*lqwhusuìwhu frpph ghv uhodwlrqv gh frlqwìjudwlrq1 Hoohv shuphwwhqw g*ìwdeolu xq olhq dyhf ohv prgëohv ã fruuhfwlrq g*hu0 uhxu +PFH,1 Hqjoh hw Judqjhu +4<;:, rqw hq h hw prqwuì txh/ txdqg ghx{ yduldeohv vrqw L+4, hw frlqwìjuìhv/ lo h{lvwh xqh uhsuìvhqwdwlrq ã fruuhfwlrq g*huuhxu/ txl lpsrvh ghv uhvwulfwlrqv vxu od g|qdpltxh gh frxuw whuph ghv vìulhv/ hw qrwdpphqw od suìvhqfh gx uìvlgx gh orqj whuph uhwdugì/ txl mrxh doruv oh u÷oh gh irufh gh udssho yhuv oh qlyhdx gh orqj whuph/ gì ql sdu od uhodwlrq gh frlqwìjudwlrq1
714 O*ìfulwxuh vrxv iruph gh uhodwlrq gh frlqwìjudwlrq
Frpph gdqv Hydqv hw Ohzlv +4<<7,/ od vwdwlrqqdulwì ghv h{fëv gh uhqghphqw hvw dqdo|vìh ã wudyhuv o*h{lvwhqfh gh uhodwlrqv gh frlqwìjudwlrq = wrxwhirlv/ doruv txh fhv dxwhxuv uìfulyhqw ohv uhodwlrqv +9, hw +:, hq idlvdqw gìshqguh oh wdx{ dx frpswdqw ixwxu gx wdx{ ã whuph fruuhvsrqgdqw/ ohv uhodwlrqv hvwlpìhv surylhqqhqw lfl gluhfwhphqw ghv uhodwlrqv +7, hw +8,1 Gh idêrq lppìgldwh/ rq d hq h hw ohv uhodwlrqv wkìrultxhv vxlydqwhv =
H|kE6c? | @ UE6 | . *E6c? | +45,
H|k E6c? | @ UE? | fE6c? | +46,
rx ohv frqwuhsduwlhv hpslultxhv =
kE6c? | @ . UE6 | . x|n6 +47,
k E6c? | @ 2. 2UE? | . x2|n?36 +48,
Od vhfwlrq 5 d prqwuì txh ohv wdx{ g*lqwìuíw vrqw L+4,/ grqf txh ohv yduldeohv hqgrjëqhv hw h{rjëqhv gh +47, hw +48, vrqw L+4,1 Ru vl od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv hvw ydolgh/ rq d @ 2 @ 4 hw ohv h{fëv gh uhqghphqw x hw x2 vrqw vwdwlrqqdluhv1 Ohv
ìtxdwlrqv +47, hw +48, rqw doruv oh vwdwxw gh uhodwlrqv gh frlqwìjudwlrq1 Gdqv fh fdv/ píph vl ohv h{fëv gh uhqghphqw vrqw fruuìoìv dyhf od yduldwlrq gh wdx{ rx od shqwh ghv wdx{/ ohv hvwlpdwlrqv gh hw 2uhvwhqw frqyhujhqwhv/ fh txl q*ìwdlw sdv oh fdv srxu ohv
sdudpëwuhv ghv uìjuhvvlrqv +;, hw +43,1 Hq h hw/ ohv sdudpëwuhv hw 2 vrqw hvwlpìv
gh idêrq vxshu0frqyhujhqwh/ gëv txh o*h{fëv gh uhqghphqw hvw vwdwlrqqdluh +Vwrfn/ 4<;:,1 Vhxohv xqh sulph gh ulvtxh hw2rx xqh huuhxu g*dqwlflsdwlrq qrq0vwdwlrqqdluhv vrqw vxvfhswleohv gh eldlvhu dv|pswrwltxhphqw o*hvwlpdwlrq gh hw 21
Od vwdwlrqqdulwì ghv h{fëv gh uhqghphqw lpsrvh ghx{ frqwudlqwhv dx{ ìtxdwlrqv +47, hw +48,1 G*xqh sduw/ lo grlw v*djlu gh uhodwlrqv gh frlqwìjudwlrq/ f*hvw0ã0gluh txh ohv uìvlgxv x
|n6 hw x2|n?36 grlyhqw íwuh vwdwlrqqdluhv1 G*dxwuh sduw/ ohv sdudpëwuhv
hw 2 grlyhqw íwuh ìjdx{ ã 41 Ru pdojuì od vxshu0frqyhujhqfh dv|pswrwltxh ghv
hvwlpdwhxuv/ ohv hvwlpdwlrqv ghv sdudpëwuhv gh orqj whuph sdu ohv PFR shxyhqw íwuh eldlvìhv ã glvwdqfh qlh1 Gh soxv/ ohxu orl dv|pswrwltxh q*hvw sdv qrupdoh/ fh txl lqwhuglw xq whvw gluhfw vxu fhv sdudpëwuhv1 Fh sureoëph shxw íwuh uìvrox vhorq ghx{ dssurfkhv =
0 ohv sdudpëwuhv hw 2 shxyhqw íwuh vxssrvìv ìjdx{ ã 4/ hw od vwdwlrqqdulwì
ghv uìvlgxv x hw x2 shxw íwuh gluhfwhphqw whvwìh > lo v*djlw doruv vlpsohphqw g*xq
whvw gh vwdwlrqqdulwì ghv h{fëv gh uhqghphqw/ txl shxw íwuh irqgì/ frpph gdqv od vhfwlrq suìfìghqwh/ vxu xqh k|srwkëvh qxooh gh qrq0vwdwlrqqdulwì +whvw DGI , rx gh vwdwlrqqdulwì +whvw NSVV, >
0 ohv eldlv ã glvwdqfh qlh ghv hvwlpdwhxuv ghv PFR shxyhqw íwuh fruuljìv srxu shuphwwuh xq whvw gh o*k|srwkëvh @ 4 > sdu h{hpsoh/ o*dssurfkh gh Skloolsv hw
Kdqvhq +4<<3,/ irqgìh vxu xqh fruuhfwlrq qrq sdudpìwultxh gh shuphw/ vl ohv uìvlgxv vrqw vwdwlrqqdluhv/ gh whvwhu fhwwh k|srwkëvh 451
715 O*ìfulwxuh ã fruuhfwlrq g*huuhxu
Xqh irlv plvh hq ìylghqfh od vwdwlrqqdulwì ghv h{fëv gh uhqghphqw/ o*lqwìuíw gh od uhsuìvhqwdwlrq ã fruuhfwlrq g*huuhxu hvw gh suhqguh hq frpswh h{solflwhphqw ohxu g|0 qdpltxh = lo h{lvwh xq qlyhdx pr|hq/ grqw o*h{fëv gh uhqghphqw qh shxw v*ìorljqhu gxudeohphqw > xq ìfduw sdu udssruw ã fh qlyhdx pr|hq ã xqh gdwh grqqìh vhud grqf sduwlhoohphqw fruuljì/ dx{ sìulrghv vxlydqwhv/ hw/ wrxwhv fkrvhv ìjdohv sdu dloohxuv/ o*h{fëv gh uhqghphqw vh udssurfkhud gh fh qlyhdx pr|hq1 Vl oh uhmhw gh od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv hvw gþ hq idlw ã o*h{lvwhqfh g*dqwlflsdwlrqv qrq udwlrqqhoohv/ o*ìfulwxuh vrxv iruph PFH dssdudñw dvvh} qdwxuhooh = ã fkdtxh sìulrgh/ ohv huuhxuv g*dqwlflsd0 wlrq gh od sìulrgh suìfìghqwh vrqw sulvhv hq frpswh hw sduwlhoohphqw fruuljìhv oruv gh o*ìydoxdwlrq ghv uhqghphqwv gh sruwdjh rx gh fdslwdolvdwlrq1 Gh idêrq dowhuqdwlyh/ vl od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv hvw uhmhwìh gx idlw gh o*h{lvwhqfh g*xqh sulph gh ulvtxh yduldeoh/ pdlv vwdwlrqqdluh/ o*ìfulwxuh vrxv iruph PFH suìflvh oh pìfdqlvph gh uhwrxu
45O*hvwlpdwlrq sdu pd{lpxp gh yudlvhpeodqfh/ vhorq od surfìgxuh sursrvìh sdu Mrkdqvhq +4<;;,/
q*hvw sdv dgdswìh lfl1 G*xqh sduw/ frpph oh suìflvhud od vhfwlrq vxlydqwh/ o*ryhuodsslqj frqgxlw ã xqh ìfulwxuh ã fruuhfwlrq g*huuhxu gl ìuhqwh ghv ìfulwxuhv xvxhoohv = o*ìfduw hqwuh ghx{ uhwdugv gdqv od g|qdpltxh gx prgëoh ã fruuhfwlrq g*huuhxu hvw gh 6 sìulrghv srxu oh uhqghphqw gh sruwdjh hw gh ? 3 6 srxu oh uhqghphqw gh fdslwdolvdwlrq > gh soxv/ ohv uhodwlrqv gh frlqwìjudwlrq +47, hw +48, irqw lqwhuyhqlu ghv yduldeohv frqqxhv ã ghv gdwhv gl ìuhqwhv1
yhuv oh qlyhdx pr|hq gh fhwwh sulph = vl fhooh0fl v*dffurñw ã xqh gdwh grqqìh/ oh uhq0 ghphqw +gh sruwdjh rx gh fdslwdolvdwlrq, v*dmxvwhud dx frxuv ghv sìulrghv vxlydqwhv gh vruwh txh od sulph uhwurxyh surjuhvvlyhphqw vrq qlyhdx pr|hq1 O*ìfulwxuh PFH shuphw dlqvl g*dpìolruhu od suìylvlrq ghv wdx{ ixwxuv hq whqdqw frpswh gh od ylwhvvh gh uhwrxu ã od pr|hqqh1
Frpswh whqx gh o*ryhuodsslqj/ o*ìfulwxuh gx PFH hvw lfl oìjëuhphqw gl ìuhqwh gh o*ìfulwxuh xvxhooh = ã od gdwh w/ ghv ghx{ sodfhphqwv dowhuqdwliv dssdudlvvdqw gdqv ohv uhodwlrqv gh frlqwìjudwlrq +47, +uhvshfwlyhphqw +48,,/ vhxo oh wdx{ }ìur0frxsrq hvw sduidlwhphqw frqqx hq w/ oh uhqghphqw gh sruwdjh +uhvshfwlyhphqw oh uhqghphqw gh fdslwdolvdwlrq, ìwdqw frqqx hq w . p +uhvshfwlyhphqw hq w . q p,1 O*h{fëv gh uhqghphqw hvw doruv h hfwlyhphqw revhuyì p hw q p sìulrghv dsuëv od {dwlrq gx wdx{ }ìur0frxsrq1 Od fruuhfwlrq gh fhwwh huuhxu qh shxw grqf dyrlu olhx txh p +uhvshfwlyhphqw qp, sìulrghv soxv wdug1 Ohv ìfulwxuhv PFH dvvrflìhv dx{ uhodwlrqv +47, hw +48, grlyhqw grqf dyrlu frpph yduldeohv hqgrjëqhv ohv gl ìuhqfhv g*ruguhv p hw q p gx uhqghphqw gh sruwdjh hw gx uhqghphqw gh fdslwdolvdwlrq uhvshfwlyhphqw1 Hq o*devhqfh gh whuphv uhwdugìv/ rq d doruv ohv ìfulwxuhv vxlydqwhv =
kE6c? | kE6c? |36 @ d kE6c? |36 UE6 |36 . e UE6 | UE6 |36 . y |n6 +49, k E6c? | k E6c? |3?n6 @ d2 k E6c? |3?n6 2 2U|3?n6E? . e2 UE? | U|3?n6E? . y2 |n?36 +4:, Srxu fhv ghx{ ìtxdwlrqv/ ohv whuphv hq gl ìuhqfh vrqw vwdwlrqqdluhv vl ohv uhqgh0 phqwv vrqw L+4, > o*h{fëv gh uhqghphqw gìfdoì +oh suhplhu whuph gx phpeuh gh gurlwh ghv ìtxdwlrqv,/ txl mrxh oh u÷oh gh irufh gh udssho/ hvw vwdwlrqqdluh1 Vl o*k|srwkëvh @ 4 qh shxw sdv íwuh uhmhwìh/ od plvh hq úxyuh ghv whfkqltxhv ìfrqrpìwultxhv
vwdqgdug hvw srvvleoh hw frqgxlw ã ghv hvwlpdwhxuv frqyhujhqwv1
Rq qrwh txh oruvtxh o*rq lpsrvh d @ e @ @ 4 dx{ sdudpëwuhv ghv ghx{
ìtxdwlrqv +49, hw +4:,/ rq uhwurxyh h{dfwhphqw ohv ìtxdwlrqv lqlwldohv +9, hw +:,1
716 Ohv uìvxowdwv hpslultxhv
O*ìwxgh gh od vwdwlrqqdulwì ghv h{fëv gh uhqghphqw hvw irqgìh vxu ghx{ vìulhv gh whvw = od suhplëuh frqvlgëuh ohv h{fëv gh uhqghphqw hx{0píphv +whvwv DGI hw NSVV/ frorqqhv 5 hw 6 gx wdeohdx 6, > od vhfrqgh sruwh vxu ohv uìvlgxv ghv uhodwlrqv gh frlqwìjudwlrq +47, hw +48,1 Frqfhuqdqw o*h{fëv gh uhqghphqw gh sruwdjh/ oh whvw DGI frqgxlw ã uhmhwhu v|vwìpdwltxhphqw od qrq0vwdwlrqqdulwì/ doruv txh oh whvw NS VV qh uhmhwwh mdpdlv od vwdwlrqqdulwì/ txhooh txh vrlw od frpelqdlvrq gh pdwxulwìv frqvlgìuìh1 Gh píph/ od qrq0vwdwlrqqdulwì ghv uìvlgxv gh od uhodwlrq gh frlqwìjudwlrq +47, hvw wrxmrxuv uhmhwìh/ ã o*h{fhswlrq gh od frpelqdlvrq gh pdwxulwìv 405 dqv1
Ohv whvwv irqgìv vxu o*h{fëv gh uhqghphqw gh fdslwdolvdwlrq vrqw ehdxfrxs soxv gìidyrudeohv ylv0ã0ylv gh od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv = od qrq0vwdwlrqqdulwì q*hvw uhmhwìh txh srxu od frpelqdlvrq gh pdwxulwìv 405 dqv dyhf oh whvw DGI > oh whvw NS VV qh uhmhwwh od vwdwlrqqdulwì txh srxu ohv frpelqdlvrqv gh pdwxulwìv 408 dqv ã 40< dqv dx vhxlo gh 43( +40: dqv hw 40; dqv dx vhxlo gh 8(,1 Hq rxwuh/ od qrq0frlqwìjudwlrq q*hvw uhmhwìh txh srxu ghx{ frpelqdlvrqv gh pdwxulwìv +40; dqv hw 40< dqv, hw dx vhxlo gh 43( vhxohphqw1
Od frorqqh 8 gx wdeohdx 6 lqgltxh txh ohv frh!flhqwv ghv uhodwlrqv gh frlqwìjud0
wlrq/ hvwlpìv vhorq od pìwkrgh gh Skloolsv hw Kdqvhq +4<<3, > od frorqqh 9 uhsruwh od vwdwlvwltxh gh Vwxghqw dvvrflìh ã 41 Fhwwh vwdwlvwltxh uhsrvh vxu xqh yduldqfh gh
orqj whuph fdofxoìh ã sduwlu g*xqh ihqíwuh gh Eduwohww/ grqw od wdlooh hvw gìwhuplqìh gh idêrq rswlpdoh +Ghq Kddq hw Ohylq/ 4<<9,1 V*djlvvdqw gh od uhodwlrq +47, hqwuh uhqgh0 phqw gh sruwdjh hw wdx{ frxuw/ oh frh!flhqw gh orqj whuph a hvw v|vwìpdwltxhphqw
vxsìulhxu ã 4 +hqwuh 4/46 hw 4/8:,/ pdlv lo q*hvw mdpdlv vljql fdwlyhphqw gl ìuhqw gh 41 D o*lqyhuvh/ srxu od uhodwlrq +48, hqwuh uhqghphqw gh fdslwdolvdwlrq hw wdx{ orqj/ oh sdudpëwuh a2 hvw wrxmrxuv lqiìulhxu ã 4 +hqwuh 3/5: hw 3/<6, > pdlv/ ã o*h{fhswlrq gh
od frpelqdlvrq gh pdwxulwìv 405 dqv/ o*k|srwkëvh g*ìjdolwì ã 4 hvw v|vwìpdwltxhphqw uhmhwìh1
Ohv uìvxowdwv frqfhuqdqw od vwdwlrqqdulwì ghv h{fëv gh uhqghphqw shxyhqw íwuh uìvxpìv gh od idêrq vxlydqwh1 Wrxw g*derug/ o*lpsolfdwlrq gh od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsd0 wlrqv vhorq odtxhooh ohv ìtxdwlrqv +47, hw +48, vrqw ghv uhodwlrqv gh frlqwìjudwlrq dyhf @ 4 hvw ydolgìh srxu od uhodwlrq hqwuh uhqghphqw gh sruwdjh hw wdx{ frxuw = ohv
whvwv frq uphqw od vwdwlrqqdulwì ghv h{fëv gh uhqghphqw hw o*h{lvwhqfh g*xqh uhodwlrq gh frlqwìjudwlrq hvw dffhswìh/ dyhf xq frh!flhqw gx wdx{ frxuw qrq vljql fdwlyhphqw gl ìuhqw gh 41 Hq fh txl frqfhuqh od uhodwlrq hqwuh uhqghphqw gh fdslwdolvdwlrq hw wdx{ orqj/ od vwdwlrqqdulwì ghv h{fëv gh uhqghphqw q*hvw dffhswìh txh srxu ohv pdwxulwìv ohv soxv frxuwhv +405 dqv srxu oh whvw DGI/ 405 dqv ã 407 dqv srxu oh whvw NSVV, > gh soxv/ od frlqwìjudwlrq hvw uhmhwìh gdqv od soxsduw ghv fdv > od vhxoh h{fhswlrq frq0 fhuqh od frpelqdlvrq 405 dqv srxu odtxhooh o*ìjdolwì ã 4 gx frh!flhqw gx wdx{ orqj hvw ìjdohphqw dffhswìh +pdlv/ gdqv fh fdv/ od frlqwìjudwlrq hvw uhmhwìh,1
Fhwwh rssrvlwlrq hqwuh h{fëv gh uhqghphqw gh sruwdjh hw gh fdslwdolvdwlrq +gìmã plvh hq ìylghqfh sdu Hydqv hw Ohzlv/ 4<<7, shxw v*h{soltxhu sdu oh idlw txh o*h{fëv gh uhqghphqw gh fdslwdolvdwlrq hvw xqh pr|hqqh g*h{fëv gh uhqghphqw gh sruwdjh gh pdwxulwìv soxv frxuwhv hw txh od sxlvvdqfh ghv whvwv gh vwdwlrqqdulwì hw gh frlqwìjudwlrq hvw hq jìqìudo dvvh} idleoh srxu ghv ìfkdqwloorqv gh wdlooh prghvwh1 Rq uhpdutxh hq h hw txh oh qrpeuh g*revhuydwlrqv xwlolvìhv srxu o*hvwlpdwlrq gh od uhodwlrq +48, gìfurñw dyhf od pdwxulwì q +gh 48 dqv srxu q @ 5 ã : dqv srxu q @ 43,1
Oh wdeohdx 7 uhsruwh ohv hvwlpdwlrqv gx PFH irqgì vxu oh uhqghphqw gh sruwdjh/ ã sduwlu ghv ìfulwxuhv +49, hw kE6c? | kE6c? |36 @ d kE6c? |36 UE6 |36 +4;, .e U|E6 UE6 |36 . f k E6c? |36 k E6c? |326 . y|n6
gdqv odtxhooh oh frh!flhqw dvvrflì ã o*hqgrjëqh uhwdugìh +f
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O*hvwlpdwlrq gx PFH shuphw grqf gh uìvrxguh ghx{ sureoëphv1 G*xq srlqw gh yxh wkìrultxh/ fhwwh ìfulwxuh q*hvw sdv vxmhwwh dx{ ìyhqwxhov eldlv gh vsìfl fdwlrq +Kdnnlr hw Uxvk/ 4<;<,1 G*xq srlqw gh yxh hpslultxh/ hooh shuphw g*rewhqlu ghv uìvxowdwv soxv frqydlqfdqwv frqfhuqdqw od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv = oh uhmhw gh od wkìrulh irqgì vxu oh uhqghphqw gh fdslwdolvdwlrq vhpeoh fodluhphqw gþ ã od qrq0vwdwlrqqdulwì gh o*h{fëv gh uhqghphqw gh fdslwdolvdwlrq > o*dffhswdwlrq gh od wkìrulh irqgì vxu oh uhqghphqw gh sruwdjh fròqflgh dyhf ghv frh!flhqwv frkìuhqwv dyhf od wkìrulh1
Xqh gl!fxowì ghphxuh fhshqgdqw = od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv hvw uhmhwìh dyhf 46
o*xqh ghv irupxodwlrqv/ dffhswìh dyhf o*dxwuh1 Ghx{ dujxphqwv +o*xq vwdwlvwltxh/ o*dxwuh ìfrqrpltxh, shxyhqw íwuh dydqfìv srxu h{soltxhu fh uìvxowdw1 Gdqv oh suhplhu fdv/ od qrq0vwdwlrqqdulwì gh o*h{fëv gh uhqghphqw gh fdslwdolvdwlrq shxw v*h{soltxhu sdu oh idlw tx*lo v*djlw g*xqh pr|hqqh g*h{fëv gh uhqghphqw gh sruwdjh/ fh olvvdjh srxydqw frqgxluh/ frpswh whqx gh od idleoh sxlvvdqfh ghv whvwv gh vwdwlrqqdulwì/ dx uhmhw ã wruw gh od wkìrulh ghv dqwlflsdwlrqv1 Gdqv oh vhfrqg fdv/ od qrq0vwdwlrqqdulwì shxw dyrlu xqh ruljlqh ìfrqrpltxh/ olìh ã od qrq0vwdwlrqqdulwì gh od sulph gh ulvtxh gh fdslwdolvdwlrq rx ghv huuhxuv g*dqwlflsdwlrqv1 Grqqhu xqh h{solfdwlrq vdwlvidlvdqwh gh fhv ghx{ lpsolfdwlrqv ìfrqrpltxhv gh od qrq0vwdwlrqqdulwì gh o*h{fëv gh uhqghphqw gh fdslwdolvdwlrq frqvwlwxh xq surjudpph gh uhfkhufkh srxu ghv wudydx{ ixwxuv1
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Ehndhuw/ J1/ U1M1 Krgulfn/ G1D1 Pduvkdoo +4<<9, = Rq Eldvhv lq Whvwv ri wkh H{0 shfwdwlrqv K|srwkhvlv ri wkh Whup Vwuxfwxuh ri Lqwhuhvw Udwhv/ QEHU Whfkqlfdo Zrunlqj Sdshu 4<41
Fdpsehoo/ M1\1/ +4<;9, = D Ghihqvh ri Wudglwlrqdo K|srwkhvhv derxw wkh Whup Vwuxfwxuh ri Lqwhuhvw Udwhv/ Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfh/ 74+4,/ 4;604<61
Fdpsehoo/ M1\1/ +4<<8, = Vrph Ohvvrqv iurp wkh \lhog Fxuyh/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf Shuvshfwlyhv/ <+6,/ 45<04851
Fdpsehoo/ M1\1/ hw U1M1 Vkloohu +4<;:, = Frlqwhjudwlrq dqg Whvwv ri Suhvhqw Ydoxh Prghov/ Mrxuqdo ri Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp|/ <8+8,/ 4395043;;1
Fdpsehoo/ M1\1/ hw U1M1 Vkloohu +4<;;, = Lqwhusuhwlqj Frlqwhjudwhg Prghov/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf G|qdplfv dqg Frqwuro/ 45+526,/ 83808551
Fdpsehoo/ M1\1/ hw U1M1 Vkloohu +4<<4, = \lhog Vsuhdgv dqg Lqwhuhvw Udwh Pryhphqwv= D Elugv* H|h Ylhz/ Uhylhz ri Hfrqrplf Vwxglhv/ 8;+6,/ 7<808471
Fr{/ M1F1/ M1H1 Lqjhuvroo hw V1D1 Urvv +4<;4, = D Uh0H{dplqdwlrq ri Wudglwlrqdo K|srwkhvhv Derxw wkh Whup Vwuxfwxuh ri Lqwhuhvw Udwhv/ Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfh/ 69+7,/ :9<0:<<1
Fxwkehuwvrq/ N1 +4<<9, = Wkh H{shfwdwlrqv K|srwkhvlv ri wkh Whup Vwuxfwxuh= Wkh XN Lqwhuedqn Pdunhw/ Hfrqrplf Mrxuqdo/ 439+769,/ 8:;08<51
Gdkotxlvw/ P1/ hw J1 Mrqvvrq +4<<8, = Wkh Lqirupdwlrq lq Vzhglvk Vkruw0Pdwxulw| Iruzdug Udwhv/ Hxurshdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ 6<+9,/ 4448044641
Ghq Kddq/ Z1M1/ hw D1W1 Ohylq +4<<9, = D Sudfwlflrqhu*v Jxlgh wr Urexvw Frydul0 dqfh Pdwul{ Hvwlpdwlrq/ QEHU Whfkqlfdo Zrunlqj Sdshu 4<:1
Glfnh|/ G1D1/ hw Z1D1 Ixoohu +4<:<, = Glvwulexwlrq iru wkh Hvwlpdwruv iru Dxwruhjuhv0 vlyh Wlph Vhulhv zlwk d Xqlw Urrw/ Mrxuqdo ri wkh Dphulfdq Vwdwlvwlfdo Dvvrfldwlrq/ :7+699,/ 75:07641
Hqjoh/ U1/ hw F1Z1M1 Judqjhu +4<;:, = Frlqwhjudwlrq dqg Huuru Fruuhfwlrq= Uhsuh0 vhqwdwlrq/ Hvwlpdwlrq/ dqg Whvwlqj/ Hfrqrphwulfd/ 88+5,/ 5840:91
Hydqv/ P1G1G1/ hw N1N1 Ohzlv +4<<7, = Gr Vwdwlrqdu| Ulvn Suhpld H{sodlq Lw DooB/ Mrxuqdo ri Prqhwdu| Hfrqrplfv/ 66+5,/ 5;8064;1
Idpd/ H1I1 +4<;7, = Wkh Lqirupdwlrq lq wkh Whup Vwuxfwxuh/ Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfldo Hfrqrplfv/ 46+7,/ 83<085;1
Idpd/ H1I1 +4<<3, = Whup0Vwuxfwxuh Iruhfdvwv ri Lqwhuhvw Udwhv/ Lq dwlrq/ dqg Uhdo Uhwxuqv/ Mrxuqdo ri Prqhwdu| Hfrqrplfv/ 58+4,/ 8<0:91
Idpd/ H1I1/ hw U1U1 Eolvv +4<;:, = Wkh Lqirupdwlrq lq Orqj0Pdwxulw| Iruzdug Udwhv/ Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ ::+7,/ 9;309<51
Ixoohu/ Z1D1 +4<:9, = Lqwurgxfwlrq wr Vwdwlvwlfdo Wlph Vhulhv/ Qhz \run/ Zloh|1 Jhuodfk/ V1 +4<<9, = Prqhwdu| Srolf| dqg wkh Ehkdylrxu ri Lqwhuhvw Udwhv= Duh Orqj Udwhv H{fhvvlyho| YrodwlohB/ ELV Zrunlqj Sdshu q 67=
Jhuodfk/ V1/ hw I1 Vphwv +4<<:, = Wkh Whup Vwuxfwxuh ri Hxur0Udwhv= Vrph Hyl0 ghqfh lq Vxssruw ri wkh H{shfwdwlrqv K|srwkhvlv/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Prqh| dqg Ilqdqfh/ 49+5,/ 63806541
Kdnnlr/ F1V1/ hw P1 Uxvk +4<;<, = Pdunhw H!flhqf| dqg Frlqwhjudwlrq= Dq Dssolfd0 wlrq wr wkh Vwhuolqj dqg Ghxwvfkhpdun H{fkdqjh Pdunhwv/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Prqh| dqg Ilqdqfh/ ;+4,/ :8;;1
Kdoo/ D1G1/ K1P1 Dqghuvrq hw F1Z1M1 Judqjhu +4<<5, = D Frlqwhjudwlrq Dqdo|vlv ri Wuhdvxu| Eloo \lhogv/ Uhylhz ri Hfrqrplfv dqg Vwdwlvwlfv/ :7+4,/ 44904591
Kdqvhq/ O1S1/ hw U1M1 Krgulfn +4<;3, = Iruzdug Udwhv dv Rswlpdo Suhglfwruv ri Ix0 wxuh Vsrw Udwhv/ Mrxuqdo ri Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp|/ ;;+8,/ ;5<0;861
Kdugrxyholv/ J1D1 +4<<7, = Wkh Whup Vwuxfwxuh Vsuhdg dqg Ixwxuh Fkdqjhv lq Orqj dqg Vkruw Udwhv lq wkh J: Frxqwulhv/ Mrxuqdo ri Prqhwdu| Hfrqrplfv/ 66+5,/ 5880 5;61
Kxuq/ D1V1/ W1 Prrg| hw Y1D1 Pxvfdwhool +4<<8, = Wkh Whup Vwuxfwxuh ri Lqwhuhvw Udwhv lq wkh Orqgrq Lqwhuedqn Pdunhw/ R{irug Hfrqrplf Sdshuv/ 7:+6,/ 74;07691 Mrkdqvhq/ V1 +4<;;, = Vwdwlvwlfdo Dqdo|vlv ri Frlqwhjudwlrq Yhfwruv/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfr0 qrplf G|qdplfv dqg Frqwuro/ 45+526,/ 56405871
Mrqghdx/ H1/ hw U1 Ulfduw +4<<9, = Wkh H{shfwdwlrq Wkhru|= Whvwv rq Iuhqfk/ Jhu0 pdq/ dqg Dphulfdq Hxur0Udwhv/ Edqtxh gh Iudqfh/ QHU &681
Mrqghdx/ H1/ hw U1 Ulfduw +4<<:, = Oh frqwhqx hq lqirupdwlrq gh od shqwh ghv wdx{ = dssolfdwlrq dx fdv ghv wlwuhv sxeolfv iudqêdlv/ Edqtxh gh Iudqfh/ QHU &76/ ã sdudñwuh gdqv Hfrqrplh hw Suìylvlrq1
Mrulrq/ S1/ hw I1 F1 Plvknlq +4<<4, = D Pxowlfrxqwu| Frpsdulvrq ri Whup0Vwuxfwxuh Iruhfdvwv dw Orqj Krul}rqv/ Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfldo Hfrqrplfv/ 5<+4,/ 8<0;31
Nzldwnrzvnl/ G1/ S1F1E1 Skloolsv/ S1 Vfkplgw hw \1 Vklq +4<<5, = Whvwlqj wkh Qxoo K|srwkhvlv ri Vwdwlrqdulw| Djdlqvw wkh Dowhuqdwlyh ri d Xqlw Urrw/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqr0 phwulfv/ 87+406,/ 48<04:;1
Pdqnlz/ Q1J1/ hw M1D1 Plurq +4<;9, = Wkh Fkdqjlqj Ehkdylru ri wkh Whup Vwuxfwxuh ri Lqwhuhvw Udwhv/ Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv/ 434+5,/ 544055;1
Pdqnlz/ Q1J1/ hw O1K1 Vxpphuv +4<;7, = Gr Orqj0Whup Lqwhuhvw Udwhv Ryhuuhdfw wr Vkruw0Whup Lqwhuhvw UdwhvB/ Eurrnlqjv Sdshuv rq Hfrqrplf Dfwlylw|/ 4/ 55605751 Plvknlq/ I1F1 +4<<4, = D Pxowl0Frxqwu| Vwxg| ri wkh Lqirupdwlrq lq wkh Vkruwhu
Pdwxulw| Whup Vwuxfwxuh derxw Ixwxuh Lq dwlrq/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Prqh| dqg Ilqdqfh/ 43+4,/ 50551
Qhovrq/ F1U1/ hw D1I1 Vlhjho +4<;:, = Sduvlprqlrxv Prgholqj ri \lhog Fxuyhv/ Mrxu0 qdo ri Exvlqhvv/ 93+7,/ 7:607;<1
Qhzh|/ Z1N1/ hw N1G1 Zhvw +4<;:, = D Vlpsoh/ Srvlwlyh Gh qlwh/ Khwhurvfhgdvwlflw| dqg Dxwrfruuhodwlrq Frqvlvwhqw Fryduldqfh Pdwul{/ Hfrqrphwulfd/ 88+6,/ :360:3;1 Skloolsv/ S1F1E1/ hw O1S1 Kdqvhq +4<<3, = Vwdwlvwlfdo Lqihuhqfh lq Lqvwuxphqwdo Ydul0 deohv Uhjuhvvlrq zlwk L+4, Surfhvvhv/ Uhylhz ri Hfrqrplf Vwxglhv/ 8:+4,/ <<04581 Skloolsv/ S1F1E1/ hw V1 Rxoldulv +4<<3, = Dv|pswrwlf Surshuwlhv ri Uhvlgxdo Edvhg Whvwv iru Frlqwhjudwlrq/ Hfrqrphwulfd/ 8;+4,/ 49804<61
Ulfduw/ U1/ hw S1 Vlfvlf +4<<8, = Hvwlpdwlrq g*xqh vwuxfwxuh sdu whuph ghv wdx{ g*lq0 wìuíw vxu grqqìhv iudqêdlvhv/ Edqtxh gh Iudqfh/ Exoohwlq phqvxho/ rfwreuh1
Vfkzhuw/ J1Z1 +4<;<, = Whvwv iru Xqlw Urrwv= D Prqwh Fduor Lqyhvwljdwlrq/ Mrxu0 qdo ri Exvlqhvv dqg Hfrqrplf Vwxglhv/ :+5,/ 47:048<1
Vkloohu/ U1M1 +4<:<, = Wkh Yrodwlolw| ri Orqj0Whup Lqwhuhvw Udwhv dqg H{shfwdwlrqv Prghov ri wkh Whup Vwuxfwxuh/ Mrxuqdo ri Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp|/ ;:+9,/ 44<30454<1 Vkloohu/ U1M1/ M1\1 Fdpsehoo hw N1O1 Vfkrhqkrow} +4<;6, = Iruzdug Udwhv dqg Ix0 wxuh Srolf|= Lqwhusuhwlqj wkh Whup Vwuxfwxuh ri Lqwhuhvw Udwhv/ Eurrnlqjv Sdshuv rq Hfrqrplf Dfwlylw|/ 4/ 4:6054:1
Vwrfn/ M1K1 +4<;:, = Dv|pswrwlf Surshuwlhv ri Ohdvw Vtxduhv Hvwlpdwruv ri Frlqwh0 judwlqj Yhfwruv/ Hfrqrphwulfd/ 88+5,/ 43680891
Vyhqvvrq/ O1H1R1 +4<<7, = Hvwlpdwlqj dqg Lqwhusuhwlqj Iruzdug Lqwhuhvw Udwhv= Vzh0 ghq 4<<5 0 4<<7/ LPI Zrunlqj Sdshu 4471
W}dydolv/ H1/ hw P1 Zlfnhqv +4<<9, = D Uh0H{dplqdwlrq ri wkh Udwlrqdo H{shfwd0 wlrqv K|srwkhvlv ri wkh Whup Vwuxfwxuh= Uhfrqflolqj wkh Hylghqfh iurp Orqj0Uxq dqg Vkruw0Uxq Whvwv/ plphr1
Zklwh/ K1 +4<;3, = D Khwhurvfhgdvwlflw|0Frqvlvwhqw Fryduldqfh Pdwul{ Hvwlpdwru dqg d Gluhfw Whvw iru Khwhurvfhgdvwlflw|/ Hfrqrphwulfd/ 7;+7,/ ;4:0;6;1
Wdeohdx 4d = Whvwv gh vwdwlrqqdulwì ghv wdx{ g*lqwìuíw pdwxulwì
+dqqìh, qlyhdxDGIyduldwlrq qlyhdxNS VVyduldwlrq 4 5 6 7 8 9 : ; < 43 3> :<; 8> 549 @ 3> :84 7> :;5 @ 3> :74 7> ;77 @ 3> :75 7> <;3 @ 3> :85 8> 437 @ 3> :98 8> 55; @ 3> :;: 8> 668 @ 3> ;43 8> 765 @ 3> ;5< 8> 857 @ 3> ;78 8> 947 @ 4> 457 @ 3> 3;3 4> 55< @ 3> 3;5 4> 597 @ 3> 3;< 4> 5:6 @ 3> 3<: 4> 5:4 @ 3> 437 4> 597 @ 3> 444 4> 58: @ 3> 448 4> 57; @ 3> 44< 4> 573 @ 3> 455 4> 565 @ 3> 456
Wdeohdx 4e = Whvw gh vwdwlrqqdulwì ghv shqwhv gh wdx{ g*lqwìuíw pdwxulwì
+dqqìh, qlyhdx DGIyduldwlrq qlyhdx NSVVyduldwlrq 5 4 6 4 7 4 8 4 9 4 : 4 ; 4 < 4 43 4 6> 49: K 9> 88; @ 5> ;;6 S 9> 889 @ 5> 9<5 S 9> 973 @ 5> 88< 9> 798 @ 5> 7:5 9> 6;: @ 5> 74< 9> 68< @ 5> 6;8 9> 6:8 @ 5> 6:8 9> 754 @ 5> 698 9> 7<7 @ 3> 688 S 3> 394 3> 69; S 3> 3:3 3> 695 S 3> 3:< 3> 686 S 3> 3;; 3> 677 3> 3<9 3> 668 3> 435 3> 65; 3> 43: 3> 655 3> 443 3> 64: 3> 445
Qrwh = Srxu ohv whvwv DGI / oh qrpeuh gh uhwdugv s hvw vìohfwlrqqì gh idêrq ã dvvxuhu od eodqfkhxu ghv uìvlgxv +ã sduwlu gh od vwdwlvwltxh gh Omxqj0Er{,1 Srxu ohv whvwv NS VV/ od yduldqfh gh orqj whuph hvw fdofxoìh dyhf 45 uhwdugv/ frqirupìphqw ã od uhfrppdqgdwlrq gh Vfkzhuw +4<;<, srxu ghv yduldeohv phqvxhoohv1 Ohv ydohxuv fulwltxhv gx whvw DGI surylhqqhqw gh Ixoohu +4<:9, hw ohv ydohxuv fulwltxhv gx whvw NSVV surylhqqhqw gh Nzldwnrzvnl hw doll +4<<5,1 @/KhwSlqgltxhqw txh od vwdwlvwltxh
hvw vljql fdwlyh dx{ vhxlov gh 4(/ 8( hw 43( uhvshfwlyhphqw1
Wdeohdx 5 = Hvwlpdwlrq ghv vsìfl fdwlrqv +;, hw +43, vxu od sìulrgh 4<;30<8 p q +dqqìhv, a a +a, U2 w0vwdw Htxdwlrq +;, 4 5 4 6 4 7 4 8 4 9 4 : 4 ; 4 < 4 43 3> 448 3> :3< 3> 334 4> 8:5 3> 78< 3> <:6 3> 33; 4> 7<< 3> ;8; 4> 568 3> 34; 4> 838 4> 63< 4> 7;3 3> 35; 4> 893 4> :;< 4> :47 3> 36< 4> 95; 5> 5<6 4> <68 3> 37; 4> :35 S 5> ;58 5> 489 3> 385 4> ::7 S 6> 697 5> 6:3 3> 393 4> ;75 S 6> <39 5> 8;7 3> 39: 4> ;<< S Htxdwlrq +43, 4 5 4 6 4 7 4 8 4 9 4 : 4 ; 4 < 4 43 3> 776 3> 687 3> 379 4> 8:5 3> 699 3> 6;4 3> 36; 4> 996 S 3> 655 3> 73; 3> 359 4> 994 S 3> 436 3> 68< 3> 335 5> 834 K 3> 3;4 3> 645 3> 334 5> <7: @ 3> 33; 3> 53; 3> 333 7> ::9 @ 3> 469 3> 57< 3> 33: 6> 7:< @ 3> 3:6 3> 544 3> 343 7> 734 @ 3> 344 3> 54; 3> 345 7> 976 @
Qrwh = O*hvwlpdwlrq gh od frqvwdqwh q*hvw sdv uhsruwìh gdqv oh wdeohdx1 a +a, hvw o*ìfduw0w|sh dv|pswrwltxh gh a1 w0vwdw hvw od vwdwlvwltxh gh Vwxghqw gx whvw gh o*k|srwkëvh qxooh @ 41 Ohv hvwlpdwlrqv vrqw uìdolvìhv vxu od sìulrgh doodqw gh 4<;3=4 ã 4<<7=45 srxu od vsìfl fdwlrq +;,/ vxu od sìulrgh doodqw gh 4<;3=4 ã 4<<8=45 prlqv +q p, dqqìhv srxu od vsìfl fdwlrq +43,1 @/ K hw S lqgltxhqw txh od vwdwlvwltxh hvw
vljql fdwlyh dx{ vhxlov gh 4(/ 8( hw 43( uhvshfwlyhphqw1 Htxdwlrq +;, = ?36 6 UE?36 |n6 UE? | @ . V|E6c? . %|n6 Htxdwlrq +43, = V|WE6c? @ 2. 2V|E6c? . %2|n?36 4;
Wdeohdx 6 = Whvw gh vwdwlrqqdulwì ghv h{fëv gh uhqghphqw p q +dqqìhv, Whvw gh vwdwlrqqdulwì gh o*h{fëv gh uhqghphqw DGI NSVV Uhodwlrq gh frlqwìjudwlrq DGI a wB3 Htxdwlrq +47, 4 5 4 6 4 7 4 8 4 9 4 : 4 ; 4 < 4 43 5> :86 7> 49; 7> 4<8 7> 349 7> 4<7 7> 5;: 6> <75 6> ;;8 6> ;5< K @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 3> 4:3 3> 469 3> 44; 3> 444 3> 43; 3> 43; 3> 43; 3> 43; 3> 43; 5> 77< 6> 935 6> ;63 7> 397 7> 569 7> 665 7> 66< 6> <46 6> ;7: @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 4> 45; 4> 576 4> 646 4> 698 4> 743 4> 785 4> 7<7 4> 865 4> 8:5 4> 677 4> 7<; 4> 658 4> 479 4> 33: 3> ;<< 3> ;4: 3> :84 3> :33 Htxdwlrq +48, 4 5 4 6 4 7 4 8 4 9 4 : 4 ; 4 < 4 43 5> :86 5> 475 5> 3<9 4> ;6< 4> 98: 4> 835 4> 66; 4> 8;5 4> 6:3 K 3> 4:3 3> 59: 3> 5<7 3> 6;3 3> 766 3> 83: 3> 797 3> 6;; 3> 643 S S K K S 5> 6<< 5> 937 5> 745 5> 58: 5> :96 6> 376 6> 6;5 6> 4<; 5> <8; S S 3> <5; 3> :77 3> 98: 3> 859 3> 764 3> 684 3> 64; 3> 64: 3> 5:9 4> 89: 6> :<8 7> 9;4 9> 954 :> :37 44> 9<5 46> 555 46> 764 4;> 5:9 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @
Qrwh = Ohv ydohxuv fulwltxhv gx whvw DGI surylhqqhqw gh Ixoohu +4<:9, hw ohv ydohxuv fulwltxhv gx whvw NSVV surylhqqhqw gh Nzldwnrzvnl hw doll +4<<5,1 Ohv ydohxuv fulwltxhv gx whvw DGI gh frlqwìjudwlrq surylhqqhqw gh Skloolsv hw Rxoldulv +4<<3,1 a hvw o*hvwlpdwlrq ixoo| prgl hg gx sdudpëwuh gh orqj whuph1 wB3 hvw od
vwdwlvwltxh gh Vwxghqw gx whvw g*ìjdolwì ã 4 gx sdudpëwuh +Skloolsv hw Kdqvhq/
4<<3, > gdqv fhwwh vwdwlvwltxh/ od yduldqfh gh orqj whuph hvw fdofxoìh ã sduwlu g*xqh ihqíwuh gh Eduwohww/ grqw od wdlooh hvw gìwhuplqìh gh idêrq rswlpdoh1 @/KhwS lqgltxhqw
txh od vwdwlvwltxh hvw vljql fdwlyh dx{ vhxlov gh 4(/ 8( hw 43( uhvshfwlyhphqw1 Htxdwlrq +47, = kE6c? | @ . UE6 | . x|n6
Htxdwlrq +48, = k E6c? | @ 2. 2UE? | . x2|n?36
Wdeohdx 7 = Hvwlpdwlrq ghv PFH +49, hw +4;, p q
+dqqìhv, ad a +ad, Htxdwlrq +49,ae a +ae, U2 I0vwdw
4 5 4 6 4 7 4 8 4 9 4 : 4 ; 4 < 4 43 3> 9<8 3> 694 4> 67< 3> 68: 3> ;69 5> ;66 S 3> <93 3> 687 4> 64: 3> :64 3> :8< 4> ;33 4> 388 3> 659 4> 584 4> 35< 3> :57 5> 368 4> 395 3> 645 4> 54; 4> 657 3> :34 4> ;66 4> 377 3> 638 4> 688 4> 957 3> 9;5 4> 764 4> 359 3> 5<< 4> 775 4> <54 3> 99; 4> 3<6 4> 33; 3> 5<7 4> 863 5> 548 3> 988 3> ;58 3> <<: 3> 5;< 4> 8<9 5> 833 3> 978 3> 966 3> <<3 3> 5;7 4> 983 5> :;5 3> 96: 3> 833 p q +dqqìhv, ad Htxdwlrq +4;,
a +ad , ae a +ae , af a +af , U2 I0vwdw
4 5 4 6 4 7 4 8 4 9 4 : 4 ; 4 < 4 43 3> :;8 3> 6:6 4> 4:3 3> 768 3> 3:; 3> 3<8 3> :<: 5> 969 S 4> 336 3> 6;; 4> 459 3> ;7< 3> 3:5 3> 446 3> :49 4> ;75 4> 44< 3> 6<4 4> 3:8 4> 4<6 3> 36< 3> 455 3> 9;6 4> <77 4> 498 3> 6;: 4> 3;7 4> 855 3> 33< 3> 45: 3> 996 4> <77 4> 4;3 3> 6;4 4> 477 4> ;7< 3> 349 3> 463 3> 97; 4> ;88 4> 4;9 3> 6:7 4> 557 5> 4:5 3> 369 3> 465 3> 96: 4> :<7 4> 4;8 3> 699 4> 655 5> 7<8 3> 385 3> 467 3> 95< 4> :85 4> 4;9 3> 693 4> 73: 5> ;3< 3> 398 3> 468 3> 956 4> :7: 4> 4;: 3> 687 4> 7<7 6> 456 3> 3:8 3> 469 3> 94< 4> :9< Qrwh = O*hvwlpdwlrq gh od frqvwdqwh q*hvw sdv uhsruwìh gdqv oh wdeohdx1 a +ad,> a +ae, hw a +af, vrqw ohv ìfduwv0w|shv dv|pswrwltxhv gh ad> ae hw af uhvshfwlyhphqw1 I0vwdw hvw od vwdwlvwltxh gh Ilvkhu dvvrflìh dx whvw mrlqw gh o*k|srwkëvh qxooh d @ e @ 4
srxu od vsìfl fdwlrq +49, hw d @ e @ 4 hw f @ 3 srxu od vsìfl fdwlrq +4;,1 Ohv
hvwlpdwlrqv vrqw uìdolvìhv vxu od sìulrgh doodqw gh 4<;3=4 soxv p dqqìh+v, ã 4<<8=45 prlqv p dqqìh+v, srxu od vsìfl fdwlrq +49,/ vxu od sìulrgh doodqw gh 4<;3=4 soxv 5p dqqìh+v, ã 4<<8=45 prlqv p dqqìh+v, srxu od vsìfl fdwlrq +4;,1 S lqgltxh txh od vwdwlvwltxh hvw vljql fdwlyh dx{ vhxlov gh 43(1 Htxdwlrq +49, = kE6c? | kE6c? |36 @ d kE6c? |36 UE6 |36 . e UE6 | U|36E6 . y |n6 Htxdwlrq +4;, = kE6c? | kE6c? |36 @ d kE6c? |36 UE6 |36 .e UE6 | UE6 |36 . f k E6c? |36 k E6c? |326 . y |n6 53
Notes d'Études et de Recherche
1. C. Huang and H. Pagès, “Optimal Consumption and Portfolio Policies with an Infinite Horizon: Existence and Convergence,” May 1990.
2. C. Bordes, « Variabilité de la vitesse et volatilité de la croissance monétaire : le cas français », février 1989.
3. C. Bordes, M. Driscoll and A. Sauviat, “Interpreting the Output Correlation: Money-Real or Money-Real-Money-Real?,” May 1989.
4. C. Bordes, D. Goyeau et A. Sauviat, « Taux d'intérêt, marge et rentabilité bancaires : le cas des pays de l'OCDE », mai 1989.
5. B. Bensaid, S. Federbusch et R. Gary-Bobo, « Sur quelques propriétés stratégiques de l’intéressement des salariés dans l'industrie », juin 1989.
6. O. De Bandt, « L'identification des chocs monétaires et financiers en France : une étude empirique », juin 1990.
7. M. Boutillier et S. Dérangère, « Le taux de crédit accordé aux entreprises françaises : coûts opératoires des banques et prime de risque de défaut », juin 1990.
8. M. Boutillier and B. Cabrillac, “Foreign Exchange Markets: Efficiency and Hierarchy,” October 1990.
9. O. De Bandt et P. Jacquinot, « Les choix de financement des entreprises en France : une modélisation économétrique », octobre 1990 (English version also available on request). 10. B. Bensaid and R. Gary-Bobo, “On Renegotiation of Profit-Sharing Contracts in Industry,”
July 1989 (English version of NER n° 5).
11. P. G. Garella and Y. Richelle, “Cartel Formation and the Selection of Firms,” December 1990.
12. H. Pagès and H. He, “Consumption and Portfolio Decisions with Labor Income and Borrowing Constraints,” August 1990.
13. P. Sicsic, « Le franc Poincaré a-t-il été délibérément sous-évalué ? », octobre 1991.
14. B. Bensaid and R. Gary-Bobo, “On the Commitment Value of Contracts under Renegotiation Constraints,” January 1990 revised November 1990.
15. B. Bensaid, J.-P. Lesne, H. Pagès and J. Scheinkman, “Derivative Asset Pricing with Transaction Costs,” May 1991 revised November 1991.
16. C. Monticelli and M.-O. Strauss-Kahn, “European Integration and the Demand for Broad Money,” December 1991.
17. J. Henry and M. Phelipot, “The High and Low-Risk Asset Demand of French Households: A Multivariate Analysis,” November 1991 revised June 1992.
18. B. Bensaid and P. Garella, “Financing Takeovers under Asymetric Information,” September 1992.
19. A. de Palma and M. Uctum, “Financial Intermediation under Financial Integration and Deregulation,” September 1992.
20. A. de Palma, L. Leruth and P. Régibeau, “Partial Compatibility with Network Externalities and Double Purchase,” August 1992.
21. A. Frachot, D. Janci and V. Lacoste, “Factor Analysis of the Term Structure: a Probabilistic Approach,” November 1992.
22. P. Sicsic et B. Villeneuve, « L'Afflux d'or en France de 1928 à 1934 », janvier 1993.
23. M. Jeanblanc-Picqué and R. Avesani, “Impulse Control Method and Exchange Rate,” September 1993.
24. A. Frachot and J.-P. Lesne, “Expectations Hypothesis and Stochastic Volatilities,” July 1993 revised September 1993.
25. B. Bensaid and A. de Palma, “Spatial Multiproduct Oligopoly,” February 1993 revised October 1994.
26. A. de Palma and R. Gary-Bobo, “Credit Contraction in a Model of the Banking Industry,” October 1994.
27. P. Jacquinot et F. Mihoubi, « Dynamique et hétérogénéité de l'emploi en déséquilibre », septembre 1995.
28. G. Salmat, « Le retournement conjoncturel de 1992 et 1993 en France : une modélisation V.A.R. », octobre 1994.
29. J. Henry and J. Weidmann, “Asymmetry in the EMS Revisited: Evidence from the Causality Analysis of Daily Eurorates,” February 1994 revised October 1994.
30 O. De Bandt, “Competition Among Financial Intermediaries and the Risk of Contagious Failures,” September 1994 revised January 1995.
31. B. Bensaid et A. de Palma, « Politique monétaire et concurrence bancaire », janvier 1994 révisé en septembre 1995.
32. F. Rosenwald, « Coût du crédit et montant des prêts : une interprétation en terme de canal large du crédit », septembre 1995.
33. G. Cette et S. Mahfouz, « Le partage primaire du revenu : constat descriptif sur longue période », décembre 1995.
34. H. Pagès, “Is there a Premium for Currencies Correlated with Volatility ? Some Evidence from Risk Reversals,” January 1996.
35. E. Jondeau and R. Ricart, “The Expectations Theory : Tests on French, German and American Euro-rates,” June 1996.
36. B. Bensaid et O. De Bandt, « Les stratégies “stop-loss” : théorie et application au Contrat Notionnel du Matif », juin 1996.
37. C. Martin et F. Rosenwald, « Le marché des certificats de dépôts. Écarts de taux à l'émission : l'influence de la relation émetteurs-souscripteurs initiaux », avril 1996.
38. Banque de France - CEPREMAP - Direction de la Prévision - Erasme - INSEE - OFCE, « Structures et propriétés de cinq modèles macroéconomiques français », juin 1996.
39. F. Rosenwald, « L'influence des montants émis sur le taux des certificats de dépôts », octobre 1996.
40. L. Baumel, « Les crédits mis en place par les banques AFB de 1978 à 1992 : une évaluation des montants et des durées initiales », novembre 1996.
41. G. Cette et E. Kremp, « Le passage à une assiette valeur ajoutée pour les cotisations sociales : Une caractérisation des entreprises non financières “gagnantes” et “perdantes” », novembre 1996.
42. S. Avouyi-Dovi, E. Jondeau et C. Lai Tong, « Effets “volume”, volatilité et transmissions internationales sur les marchés boursiers dans le G5 », avril 1997.
43. E. Jondeau et R. Ricart, « Le contenu en information de la pente des taux : Application au cas des titres publics français », juin 1997.
44. B. Bensaid et M. Boutillier, « Le contrat notionnel : Efficience et efficacité », juillet 1997. 45. E. Jondeau et R. Ricart, « La théorie des anticipations de la structure par terme : test à partir
des titres publics français », septembre 1997.
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