An Empirical Study on the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve: Japan and the US

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MPRA

Munich Personal RePEc Archive

An Empirical Study on the New

Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve: Japan

and the US

Ichiro Muto and Kohei Shintani

25. February 2014

Online at

http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53934/

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(17)

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FD:?8 E96 62C?:?832D65 52E2 D 2 C6DF=E E96 A2C2>6E6C 7@C H286 DE:4<:?6DD 5@6D ?@E

5:T6C D:8?:L42?E=J 36EH66? E96 6DE:>2E:@? C6DF=ED FD:?8 2=E6C?2E:G6 >62DFC6D @7 H286 :?M2 E:@? ,96 6DE:>2E:@? C6DF=ED FD:?8 E96 4@>A6?D2E:@?32D65 52E2 2=D@ DF886DE E92E H286D

(18)

2C6 =6DD DE:4<J :? "2A2? E92? :? E96 -+

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(19)

'$(

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(20)

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(21)

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(22)

(1) Hourly wage ࠉ

(2) Unemployment rate

(3) Inflation

Note: * denotes quarterly time series downloaded from FRED

(http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/) provided by St. Louis Fed.

Figure 1: Summary of the data

U.S. Name of

Statistical Survey

Monthly Labour Survey (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare)

Establishment Survey (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Data

Monthly total wage / Monthly total working hours

Monthly scheduled wage / Monthly scheduled working hours

Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees: total private* Seasonally adjusted

or original Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted

Data construction

Monthly indices of scheduled wage are seasonally adjusted by X11 default. Quarterly indices are made by averaging monthly indices.

Officially released

Start date 1970/Q1 (total wage)

1979/Q2 (scheduled wage) 1964/Q1 Japan U.S. Name of Statistical Survey Employment Situation 㸦Bureau of Labor Statistics㸧

Data Civilian unemployment rate*

Seasonally adjusted

Data construction Officially released

Start date 1948/Q1

Japan

Unemployment rate

Officially released monthly labor forces and unemployed persons are averaged, and quarterly unemployment rates are calculated.

1953/Q1 Labor Force Survey

(Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)

U.S. Name of

Statistical Survey

Consumer Price Index 㸦Bureau of Labor Statistics㸧

Data All items less food and energy*

Seasonally adjusted

Data construction Officially released

Start date 1957/Q1

Consumer Price Inmdex

(Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) All items less food

Impacts of consumption tax introduction in 1989 and hike in 1997 are excluded from original index, and the indices are seasonally adjusted. Quarterly indices are made by averaging monthly ones.

Japan

(23)

(1) Scatter plot

ࠉ

Figure 2: Wage inflation and unemployment rate (U.S.)

10 1970' (y/y, %) Correlation: -0.030 6 8 10 y wage 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000-(y/y, %) Correlation: -0.030 2 4 6 8 10 Hourly wage 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000-(y/y, %) Correlation: -0.030 (2) Time series 0 2 4 6 8 10 3 6 9 12 Hourly wage Unemployment rate 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000-(%) (y/y, %) Correlation: -0.030 (2) Time series 0 2 4 6 8 10 3 6 9 12 Hourly wage Unemployment rate 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000-(%) (y/y, %) Correlation: -0.030 8 10 12 8 10 (y/y, %) Hourly wage

Unemployment rate (right axis)

(%) 0 2 4 6 8 10 3 6 9 12 Hourly wage Unemployment rate 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000-(%) (y/y, %) Correlation: -0.030 4 6 8 10 12 4 6 8 10 (y/y, %) Hourly wage

(%) 0 2 4 6 8 10 3 6 9 12 Hourly wage Unemployment rate 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000-(%) (y/y, %) Correlation: -0.030 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 10 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13 (y/y, %) Hourly wage

(%)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 0 2 4 6 8 10 3 6 9 12 Hourly wage Unemployment rate 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000-(%) (y/y, %) Correlation: -0.030 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 10 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13 (y/y, %) Hourly wage

(24)

(1) Scatter plot

ࠉ

Figure 3: Wage inflation and unemployment rate (Japan)

30 35 1970' (y/y, %) Correlation: -0.755 15 20 25 30 35 y wage 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000-(y/y, %) Correlation: -0.755 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Hourly wage 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000-(y/y, %) Correlation: -0.755 (2) Time series -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 2 4 6 Hourly wage Unemployment rate 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000-(%) (y/y, %) Correlation: -0.755 (2) Time series -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 2 4 6 Hourly wage Unemployment rate 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000-(%) (y/y, %) Correlation: -0.755 4 5 6 25 30 35 (y/y, %) Hourly wage

(%) -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 2 4 6 Hourly wage Unemployment rate 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000-(%) (y/y, %) Correlation: -0.755 2 3 4 5 6 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 (y/y, %) Hourly wage

(%) -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 2 4 6 Hourly wage Unemployment rate 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000-(%) (y/y, %) Correlation: -0.755 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13 (y/y, %) Hourly wage

(%)

Sources: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 2 4 6 Hourly wage Unemployment rate 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000-(%) (y/y, %) Correlation: -0.755 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13 (y/y, %) Hourly wage

(25)

Figure 4: Estimation results (Basic NKWPC) 0 1

log (

)

100

t t

Unemployment rate

Hourly wage

D

'

• Japan Sample period Į0 Į1 0.023 -0.525 (6.92) (-5.88) 1980Q1-2013Q2 0.202 0 1

log (

)

100

t t

Unemployment rate

Hourly wage

D

'

2 Adj-R • U.S. Sample period Į0 Į1 0.023 -0.525 (6.92) (-5.88) 1980Q1-2013Q2 0.202 Sample period Į0 Į1 0.010 -0.020 (7.49) (-1.02) 1980Q1-2013Q2 0.000 0 1

log (

)

100

t t

Unemployment rate

Hourly wage

D

'

2 Adj-R 2 Adj-R

Note: t-values in parentheses.

• Japan • U S Sample period Į0 Į1 0.023 -0.525 (6.92) (-5.88) 1980Q1-2013Q2 0.202 Sample period Į0 Į1 0.010 -0.020 (7.49) (-1.02) 1980Q1-2013Q2 0.000 0 1

log (

)

100

t t

Unemployment rate

Hourly wage

D

'

2 Adj-R 2 Adj-R • Japan • U.S. .005 .010 .015 .020 .000 .005 .010 .015 .020 .025 .00 .02 .04 -.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 Sample period Į0 Į1 0.023 -0.525 (6.92) (-5.88) 1980Q1-2013Q2 0.202 Sample period Į0 Į1 0.010 -0.020 (7.49) (-1.02) 1980Q1-2013Q2 0.000 0 1

log (

)

100

t t

Unemployment rate

Hourly wage

D

'

2 Adj-R 2 Adj-R -.010 -.005 .000 .005 .010 .015 .020 .000 .005 .010 .015 .020 .025 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Residual Actual Fitted

-.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 -.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Residual Actual Fitted

Sample period Į0 Į1 0.023 -0.525 (6.92) (-5.88) 1980Q1-2013Q2 0.202 Sample period Į0 Į1 0.010 -0.020 (7.49) (-1.02) 1980Q1-2013Q2 0.000 0 1

log (

)

100

t t

Unemployment rate

Hourly wage

D

'

log (

)

100

t t

Unemployment rate

Hourly wage

D

'

log (

)

100

t t

Unemployment rate

Hourly wage

D

'

2 Adj-R 2 Adj-R

(26)

Figure 5: Estimation results (NKWPC with inflation indexation) 0 1 2 1

log (

)

log (

)

100

t t t

Unemployment rate

Hourly wage

D D

D

CPI

'

• Japan 0 1 2 1

log (

)

log (

)

100

t t t

Unemployment rate

Hourly wage

D D

D

CPI

'

Sample period Į0 Į1 Į2 0.017 -0.389 0.449 (3.52) (-3.19) (1.63) 1980Q1-2013Q2 0.212 2 Adj-R • U.S. 0 1 2 1

log (

)

log (

)

100

t t t

Unemployment rate

Hourly wage

D D

D

CPI

'

Sample period Į0 Į1 Į2 0.017 -0.389 0.449 (3.52) (-3.19) (1.63) 1980Q1-2013Q2 0.212 Sample period Į0 Į1 Į2 0.008 -0.048 0.433 (8.20) (-3.39) (11.20) 1980Q1-2013Q2 0.486 2 Adj-R 2 Adj-R

• Japan • U S 0 1 2 1

log (

)

log (

)

100

t t t

Unemployment rate

Hourly wage

D D

D

CPI

'

Sample period Į0 Į1 Į2 0.017 -0.389 0.449 (3.52) (-3.19) (1.63) 1980Q1-2013Q2 0.212 Sample period Į0 Į1 Į2 0.008 -0.048 0.433 (8.20) (-3.39) (11.20) 1980Q1-2013Q2 0.486 2 Adj-R 2 Adj-R • Japan • U.S. .00 .02 .04 -.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 .000 .005 .010 .015 .000 .005 .010 .015 .020 .025 0 1 2 1

log (

)

log (

)

100

t t t

Unemployment rate

Hourly wage

D D

D

CPI

'

Sample period Į0 Į1 Į2 0.017 -0.389 0.449 (3.52) (-3.19) (1.63) 1980Q1-2013Q2 0.212 Sample period Į0 Į1 Į2 0.008 -0.048 0.433 (8.20) (-3.39) (11.20) 1980Q1-2013Q2 0.486 2 Adj-R 2 Adj-R -.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 -.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Residual Actual Fitted

-.010 -.005 .000 .005 .010 .015 .000 .005 .010 .015 .020 .025 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Residual Actual Fitted

0 1 2 1

log (

)

log (

)

100

t t t

Unemployment rate

Hourly wage

D D

D

CPI

'

0 1 2 1

log (

)

log (

)

100

t t t

Unemployment rate

Hourly wage

D D

D

CPI

'

0 1 2 1

log (

)

log (

)

100

t t t

Unemployment rate

Hourly wage

D D

D

CPI

'

Sample period Į0 Į1 Į2 0.017 -0.389 0.449 (3.52) (-3.19) (1.63) 1980Q1-2013Q2 0.212 Sample period Į0 Į1 Į2 0.008 -0.048 0.433 (8.20) (-3.39) (11.20) 1980Q1-2013Q2 0.486 2 Adj-R 2 Adj-R

(27)

(1) Basic NKWPC

• Japan • U.S.

ࠉ

Figure 6: Decomposing wage inflation based on NKWPC

10 Residuals (y/y, %) 10 (y/y, %) ࠉ 4 6 8 10 Residuals

Unemployment rate + const. Hourly wage (y/y, %) 4 6 8 10 (y/y, %) -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Residuals

Unemployment rate + const. Hourly wage (y/y, %) -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 (y/y, %)

(2) NKWPC with inflation indexation

• Japan • U S -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13 Residuals

Unemployment rate + const. Hourly wage (y/y, %) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13 (y/y, %) • Japan • U.S. -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13 Residuals

Unemployment rate + const. Hourly wage (y/y, %) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13 (y/y, %) 6 8 10 Residuals Inflation

Unemployment rate + const. Hourly wage (y/y, %) 6 8 10 (y/y, %) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13 Residuals

Unemployment rate + const. Hourly wage (y/y, %) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13 (y/y, %) 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Residuals Inflation

Unemployment rate + const. Hourly wage (y/y, %) 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 (y/y, %) S Mi i t f H lth L b d W lf Mi i t f I t l Aff i d C i ti -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13 Residuals

Unemployment rate + const. Hourly wage (y/y, %) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13 (y/y, %) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13 Residuals Inflation

Unemployment rate + const. Hourly wage (y/y, %) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13 (y/y, %)

Sources: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Bureau of Labor Statistics.

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13 Residuals

Unemployment rate + const. Hourly wage (y/y, %) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13 (y/y, %) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13 Residuals Inflation

Unemployment rate + const. Hourly wage (y/y, %) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13 (y/y, %)

(28)

(1) Labor productivity trend

Figure 7: Wage inflation and labor productivity trend (Japan)

10 (y/y, %) 4 6 8 10

Trend of labor productivity

Labor productivity (y/y, %) -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

Labor productivity (y/y, %)

(2) Wage inflation and labor productivity trend

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13

Labor productivity (y/y, %) 10 15 20 25 30 35

Hourly wage㸫Trend of labor productivity Hourly wage (right axis)

Trend of labor productivity (right axis)

(% points) (y/y, %) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13

Labor productivity (y/y, %) 0 5 10 15 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

(% points) (y/y, %) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13

Labor productivity (y/y, %) S C bi t Offi Mi i t f H lth L b d W lf -10 -5 0 5 10 15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13

(% points) (y/y, %) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13

Sources: Cabinet Office, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13

(% points) (y/y, %) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 13

(29)

Labor productivity trend is eliminated (1) Basic NKWPC

ࠉ

(2) NKWPC with inflation indexation

ࠉ

Figure 8: Estimation results (Japan, y/y-based, hourly total wage)

0 1 4 4 log ( ) 100 t t t t t Unemployment rate Hourly wage Trend of labor productivity

Hourly wage Trend of labor productivity

D

1 0 1 2 4 4 5 log ( ) log ( ) 100 t t t t t t t

Unemployment rate CPI Hourly wage Trend of labor productivity

Hourly wage Trend of labor productivity D D D CPI

Sample period Į0 Į1 0.055 -1.513 (13.85) (-14.09) 0.598 1980Q1-2013Q2 Sample period Į0 Į1 Į2 0.031 -0.962 0.453 (5.17) (-6.45) (4.93) 1980Q1-2013Q2 0.658 2 Adj-R 2 Adj-R

(30)

(1) Wage inflation and unemployment in Japan

Figure 9: Subsample estimation of the reduced-form NKWPC for Japan

15 (y/y, %) 10 15 1976/1Q-1994/4Q 1995/1Q-2013/2Q (y/y, %) 0 5 10 15 1976/1Q-1994/4Q 1995/1Q-2013/2Q (y/y, %) Hourly wage -5 0 5 10 15 1976/1Q-1994/4Q 1995/1Q-2013/2Q (y/y, %) Hourly wage

(2) Subsample estimation of the reduced-form NKWPC (Japan, y/y-based, hourly total wage)

-5 0 5 10 15 1976/1Q-1994/4Q 1995/1Q-2013/2Q (% ) (y/y, %) Hourly wage Unemployment rate

· §

Hourly

wage

Unemployme

nt

rate

CPI

Sample period 0.113 -3.397 0.475 (6.53) (-5.22) (5.98) 0.062 -1.409 0.206 (5.36) (-5.29) (0.78) 1976/1Q㹼1994/4Q 1995/1Q㹼2013/2Q 0.724 0.427 0 D D1 D2 2 Adj-R

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wage

Hourly

wage

Hourly

D

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wage

Hourly

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Hourly

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wage

Hourly

wage

Hourly

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(31)

1. q/q-based estimation

ࠉ(1) Basic NKWPC ࠉ(2) NKWPC with inflation indexation

Figure 10: Rolling estimation of the reduced-form NKWPC for Japan

0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.0 0.0 1.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2. y/y-based estimation -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 1972-91 1973-92 1974-93 1975-94 1976-95 1977-96 1978-97 1979-98 1980-99 1981-00 1982-01 1983-02 1984-03 1985-04 1986-05 1987-06 1988-07 1989-08 1990-09 1991-10 1992-11 1993-12 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1972-91 1973-92 1974-93 1975-94 1976-95 1977-96 1978-97 1979-98 1980-99 1981-00 1982-01 1983-02 1984-03 1985-04 1986-05 1987-06 1988-07 1989-08 1990-09 1991-10 1992-11 1993-12 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 1972-91 1973-92 1974-93 1975-94 1976-95 1977-96 1978-97 1979-98 1980-99 1981-00 1982-01 1983-02 1984-03 1985-04 1986-05 1987-06 1988-07 1989-08 1990-09 1991-10 1992-11 1993-12 y y

ࠉ(1) Basic NKWPC ࠉ(2) NKWPC with inflation indexation

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 1972-91 1973-92 1974-93 1975-94 1976-95 1977-96 1978-97 1979-98 1980-99 1981-00 1982-01 1983-02 1984-03 1985-04 1986-05 1987-06 1988-07 1989-08 1990-09 1991-10 1992-11 1993-12 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1972-91 1973-92 1974-93 1975-94 1976-95 1977-96 1978-97 1979-98 1980-99 1981-00 1982-01 1983-02 1984-03 1985-04 1986-05 1987-06 1988-07 1989-08 1990-09 1991-10 1992-11 1993-12 1.0 1.5 -1.0 0.0 1.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 1972-91 1973-92 1974-93 1975-94 1976-95 1977-96 1978-97 1979-98 1980-99 1981-00 1982-01 1983-02 1984-03 1985-04 1986-05 1987-06 1988-07 1989-08 1990-09 1991-10 1992-11 1993-12 -2.0 0.0 2.0 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 1972-91 1973-92 1974-93 1975-94 1976-95 1977-96 1978-97 1979-98 1980-99 1981-00 1982-01 1983-02 1984-03 1985-04 1986-05 1987-06 1988-07 1989-08 1990-09 1991-10 1992-11 1993-12 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1972-91 1973-92 1974-93 1975-94 1976-95 1977-96 1978-97 1979-98 1980-99 1981-00 1982-01 1983-02 1984-03 1985-04 1986-05 1987-06 1988-07 1989-08 1990-09 1991-10 1992-11 1993-12 0 5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 7 0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 1972-91 1973-92 1974-93 1975-94 1976-95 1977-96 1978-97 1979-98 1980-99 1981-00 1982-01 1983-02 1984-03 1985-04 1986-05 1987-06 1988-07 1989-08 1990-09 1991-10 1992-11 1993-12 14 0 -12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 1972-91 1973-92 1974-93 1975-94 1976-95 1977-96 1978-97 1979-98 1980-99 1981-00 1982-01 1983-02 1984-03 1985-04 1986-05 1987-06 1988-07 1989-08 1990-09 1991-10 1992-11 1993-12 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1972-91 1973-92 1974-93 1975-94 1976-95 1977-96 1978-97 1979-98 1980-99 1981-00 1982-01 1983-02 1984-03 1985-04 1986-05 1987-06 1988-07 1989-08 1990-09 1991-10 1992-11 1993-12 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1972-91 1973-92 1974-93 1975-94 1976-95 1977-96 1978-97 1979-98 1980-99 1981-00 1982-01 1983-02 1984-03 1985-04 1986-05 1987-06 1988-07 1989-08 1990-09 1991-10 1992-11 1993-12 -9.0 -8.0 -7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 1972-91 1973-92 1974-93 1975-94 1976-95 1977-96 1978-97 1979-98 1980-99 1981-00 1982-01 1983-02 1984-03 1985-04 1986-05 1987-06 1988-07 1989-08 1990-09 1991-10 1992-11 1993-12 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 1972-91 1973-92 1974-93 1975-94 1976-95 1977-96 1978-97 1979-98 1980-99 1981-00 1982-01 1983-02 1984-03 1985-04 1986-05 1987-06 1988-07 1989-08 1990-09 1991-10 1992-11 1993-12 -18.0 -16.0 -14.0 -12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 1972-91 1973-92 1974-93 1975-94 1976-95 1977-96 1978-97 1979-98 1980-99 1981-00 1982-01 1983-02 1984-03 1985-04 1986-05 1987-06 1988-07 1989-08 1990-09 1991-10 1992-11 1993-12

An Empirical Study on the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve: Japan and the US

MPRA

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