The Future of the Internet isn t what it used to be

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

CIPS Calgary Luncheon

Presenter: Yogi Schulz

The Future

of the Internet

isn’t what

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

Management Consultants

Yogi Schulz

Biography

President of Corvelle Management Consultants

Information technology related management consulting

Project management and systems development

Computing Canada & Calgary Herald columnist

PPDM Association board member

Industry presenter:

– Project World - 4 years – CIPS Informatics - 7 years

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Yogi Schulz

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

The Future of the Internet

at various points in the past - 1

Secure communication system for US political and

military leaders during nuclear war

Fast communication system for US Department of

Defense and its military contractors

Global system of hypertext linkages to

cross-reference academic documents across computers

Fast, shared communication system for large

corporations

A way to apply computing without sending vast

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

The Future of the Internet

at various points in the past - 2

Replacement for Fedexing documents

A whole new media channel for:

– Distributing information

– Delivering entertainment & education – Collaborating for business or pleasure

System to:

– Perform rapid research (with limitations) – Conduct business with consumers – B2C – Improve social life

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

The Future of the Internet

at various points in the past - 3

A software distribution/update mechanism

Cheap, fast, shared communication system

for everyone

System to conduct business:

– Among businesses – B2B – With government

A turbo-charged way to:

– Defraud the innocent & the naive

– Aggravate & disrupt the lives of many

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

The Future of the Internet

at various points in the past - 4

Basis for warfare:

– Disrupt enemy communication – Disable enemy weapons

– Freeze enemy financial assets

– Avoid casualties on the evening news

Replacement for:

– The telephone system – Video conferencing

A shared infrastructure to enable:

– Media convergence

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

The Future of the Internet

Outline

Security will improve

Internet access will be ubiquitous Web Services will connect

organizations

IT products will morph into services Software development will rely on

module re-use

Recommendations Questions & Answers

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

Security

Survey

actually produced a disaster recovery plan

after deferring the work for many years?

a paper shredder in use at home? a firewall installed at home?

their social security number with them? their password written on a sticky note? anti-virus and anti-spyware installed at

home?

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

Security will improve

Biometric identification:

– Fingerprint, Palm vein – Iris, Lips

– Keying behavior on keyboard

Technical identification:

– SecurId – USB fob – Smart Card

Less total freedom to be irresponsible:

– Authentication will be required

– Repudiation will become more difficult

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

Internet Access

Survey

high-speed Internet access at home? WiFi wireless access at home? At work? wireless e-mail access via Blackberry/PDA? experienced dropped calls or sessions?

experimented with VOIP?

used wireless access at Starbucks? Hotels?

found Internet access in remote corners of the world? mooched Internet access from an open WiFi wireless

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

Internet Access

will be ubiquitous

Internet 2

– Higher volume of traffic

– Improved network management – High bandwidth applications

Cable/ADSL availability gigabit Ethernet and ATM

IPng - Next Generation Internet Protocol

– IP version 6 (IPv6)

VOIP, WiFi to cell phone and back hand off

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

Buying Online

Survey

bought consumer goods & services online?

abandoned a shopping cart? Reasons?

bought business goods & services online?

identified product and merchant on the Web

but then bought the item via the 1 800 number? Reasons?

responded to a customer complaint about

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

Mobile agents

RosettaNet

ebXML

UDDI

WS-<alphabet soup>

E-commerce is not dead

WS-Trust WS-Security Web Services Interoperability WS-MetadataExchange WS-Addressing WS-Eventing WS-ServiceGroup WS-BaseFaults

Web Services will

connect organizations

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

Software & Hardware

Survey

objected to software vendor licensing terms?

– Made any headway?

used Apache Web Server or MySQL?

experimented with a Linux desktop?

installed OpenOffice?

– Tried to inter-operate with Microsoft Office?

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

IT products will morph into services

Software

Software vendors are changing terms from

high upfront license fee to annual license fee

Open source OS

Pay for software usage by the month

Microsoft - Software Assurance

Sun Microsystems:

– Java Enterprise System – Java Desktop System

Qbyte online

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

IT products will morph into services

Hardware

Commodity computing Service oriented architecture Cluster Grid

A solution for

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

surfed to http://freshmeat.net?

– Actually implemented any of the software?

contemplated installing the Compiere Open

Source ERP software application?

read about the Open Source Website

Content Management System?

considered an open source application to:

– Control cost?

– Influence software development priorities & pace?

Software development

Survey

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

Software development will rely

heavily on module re-use

Microsoft modules for re-use:

– ActiveX controls marketplace – Language-specific code samples

Java modules for re-use:

– Java applets

– JavaBeans components

Reducing what developers have to code:

– Operating system scope expanding

– Application server software capabilities increasing – Open source modules increasing in scope/quality

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

Conclusions

The future of the Internet

will surprise us

We tend to under-estimate

the pace of progress in technology

We tend to over-estimate

the pace at which people are prepared to adopt

technology

The Future of the Internet

isn’t what it used to be

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

Keeping

Up

Don’t languish behind,

The Internet still offers

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

Recommendations

Monitor Internet technology developments Investigate promising emerging technology Match technology to business problems

and opportunities

Pilot technology in modest ways Don’t over-commit to:

– Benefits

– Implementation costs & schedules – Customer adoption rates

Can be rewarding

& lots of fun

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

Questions & Answers

Elroy will

explain it

to you

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

1800, 250 - 6th Ave. S.W. Calgary, Alberta Canada T2P 3H7 Phone/Fax: (403) 249-5255 E-mail: YogiSchulz@corvelle.com Web: www.corvelle.com

President of Corvelle Management Consultants

Information technology related management consulting Project management and systems development

Computing Canada & Calgary Herald columnist PPDM Association board member

Future of the Internet

isn’t what it used to be

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

A Brief History

of the Internet - 1

1957 U. S. government forms Advanced Research Projects

Agency (ARPA) as a defense initiative

1968 ARPANET, the precursor of the Internet, is launched to

connect Department of Defense (DoD) with military contractors

1970s ARPA and Stanford develop packet switching - TCP/IP

1972 Scientist start to use ARPANET for E-mail

1973 The term Internet is first used

1981 ARPANET grows to 213 hosts

1983 TCP/IP becomes the standard protocol

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

A Brief History

of the Internet - 2

1984 ARPANET grows to 1,000 hosts

1985 NSFNet begins; takes over Internet

March 15 1985 - the first registered domain name was

symbolics.com

1990 The phrase World Wide Web is coined by Tim Berners-Lee.

He is considered the inventor of the Web

1990 NSF lifts ban on commercial hosts on Internet

1991 PSI Net begins as first commercial ISP

1992 Network Solutions wins bid to register domain extensions

1992 Internet reaches 1,000,000 hosts

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

A Brief History

of the Internet - 3

1993 Internet reaches 2,000,000 hosts

1993 Netscape Communications is founded

1994 The first bank opens online; Pizza Hut offers online pizza

order and delivery

1994 – Yahoo starts as "Jerry's Guide to the World Wide Web"

1995 James Gosling of Sun Microsystems introduces Java

1995 PC-to-PC Voice over IP began by hobbyists in Israel

1996 Microsoft feels threatened by Internet growth in

importance; re-prioritizes software development

1996 Yahoo search engine is launched

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

A Brief History

of the Internet - 4

1998 More than 300 million web pages exist; growing by 1.5

million pages per day

1998 VOIP first PC-to-Phone and later Phone-to-Phone

connections

September 7, 1998 - Google Inc.opens for business

1999 B2C E-commerce, portals and electronic auctions

become popular

1999 Consumer high-speed access widely adopted

2000 B2B E-commerce gains momentum

2000 AOL Time Warner merger announced

2001 B2B Marketplaces experiment with mixed success

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

A Brief History

of the Internet - 5

2001 W3C Publishes Web Services Description Language

(WSDL)

2001 The first live distributed musical

2001 SETI@Home launches

2001 Napster litigation forces it to suspend service

2001 European Council finalizes an international

cybercrime treaty

2001 Code Red worm and Sircam virus infiltrate thousands

of web servers and email accounts

2002 Having your own Blog becomes hip

2002 A distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack struck

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

A Brief History

of the Internet - 6

2003 The first official Swiss online election takes place in

Anières

2003 SQL Slammer worm causes one of the largest and

fastest spreading DDoS attacks

2003 Flash mobs, organized over the Net, start in New York

and quickly form in cities worldwide

2003 Taxes make headlines as larger US Internet retailers

begin collecting taxes on all purchases

2004 WS-Security

2004 Google IPO

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

Bibliography - 1

A Brief History of the World Wide Web

– www.walthowe.com/navnet/history.html

A Little History of the World Wide Web

– www.w3.org/History.html

Biometric Identification

– et.wcu.edu/aidc/BioWebPages/Biometrics_Eye.html

Creative Licensing

– Erik Heinrich, EDGE, September 2004, p. 14

Digital dilemmas

– The Economist, Jan 23rd, 2003

– www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=1534303

Electrolux Screenfridge

– www.electrolux.com/screenfridge

Future of the Internet and Web

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

Bibliography - 2

Hardware, On Demand Help Drive IBM's Profit

– Erin Joyce, January 15, 2004

– www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/3299631

Hobbes' Internet Timeline v7.0

– www.zakon.org/robert/internet/timeline/

How big brother and big media can put the Internet genie back in the bottle

– John Walker, Revision 4 -- November 4th, 2003 – www.fourmilab.ch/documents/digital-imprimatur

IBM - Capacity on demand

– www-1.ibm.com/servers/eserver/iseries/ondemand/cod/ Internet histories – www.isoc.org/internet/history Internet Society – www.isoc.org Internet2

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

Bibliography - 3

Mobile Agents and the Future of the Internet

– www.cs.dartmouth.edu/~dfk/papers/kotz:future2/

NASA Research and Education Network (NREN)

– www.nren.nasa.gov/about/index.html

On-Demand Computing

– www.computerworld.com/hardwaretopics/hardware/report/0,11188,06282004, 00.html

Software as a Service: Choosing an Effective Model

– www.accelacomm.com/jlp/BellSaas-txtEm2/22/10002557/

Utility Computing

– www.utilitycomputing.com

Voice over IP 101 - Juniper Networks

– whitepapers.informationweek.com/detail/RES/1099072997_513.html?src=mu_ p_j2e

World Wide Web Consortium

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Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

Screenfridge

Internal communication

External communication

Food management

News, radio and home security

Figure

Updating...

References