1
© 2015 Emerging Global Advisors, LLC — All Rights Reserved.155 W 19th St. New York, NY 10011 +1 888 800 4347 emergingglobaladvisors.com
2015 Review and 2016 Perspectives
EGA Investment Strategy Commentary
Disclosures
Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of a Fund before investing. To obtain a prospectus for
any EGA or EGShares Funds and other important information, as well as to obtain most recent index performance, please call +1 888 800 4347
or visit emergingglobaladvisors.com to view or download a prospectus. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.
Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual fund performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any
management fees, transaction costs or expenses, which could reduce returns. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an
index. Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Current performance data
may be higher or lower than actual data quoted. For the most current index performance data please call + 1 888 800 4347.
Emerging market investments involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles,
from economic or political instability in other nations or increased volatility, and lower trading volume. The value of an investment denominated in a foreign currency
could change significantly as foreign currencies strengthen or weaken relative to the U.S. dollar.
Frontier markets countries generally have smaller economies or less developed capital markets than in more advanced developing markets and, as a result, the risks
of investing in developing markets countries are magnified in frontier markets countries.
Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
ETF shares are bought and sold at market price (not NAV) and are not individually redeemed from the Fund.
The content of this report is presented for general information purposes only. The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are as of the date
of this report. All information is historical and not indicative of future results, and subject to change. Reader should not assume that an investment in the securities
mentioned above was or would be profitable in the future. This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. While the information and statistical data
contained herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent that it is accurate and it should not be relied on as such or be the basis for an
investment decision. This report may include estimates, projections and other "forward-looking statements". Emerging Global Advisors, LLC assumes no duty to
update any such statements. Due to numerous factors, actual events may differ substantially from those presented.
EGA
®, EGShares
℠
and EGAI
℠
are service marks of Emerging Global Advisors, LLC. All other trademarks, service marks or registered trademarks are the property of
their respective owners.
Edward Kerschner is a registered representative of ALPS Distributors, Inc.
EGA and EGShares Funds are distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc. Emerging Global Advisors and ALPS are unaffiliated.
EGS002654 | Expires: 1/15/2017
3
© 2015 Emerging Global Advisors, LLC — All Rights Reserved.Summary
•
Equities in emerging markets (EM) have now underperformed developed markets (DM) for the last 3
years
•
In 2015, the S&P 500 Index (+1.4% total return) and the MSCI EAFE Index (-0.2%) led, whereas the
MSCI EM Index (-14.8%) and the MSCI FM Index (-14.7%) brought up the rear
•
Within EM regions, Asia 9.8%) was the top performer, beating EMEA 19.7%) and Latin America
(-30.9%)
•
Countries that embraced reform (India, China) continued to outperform those embroiled in political
crises (Greece, Brazil)
•
Within EM sectors, the defensives outperformed the cyclicals and the consumer sectors led the
broader EM Index
•
Emerging Markets Review
5
© 2015 Emerging Global Advisors, LLC — All Rights Reserved.Summary
1.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a renaissance in EM growth, which has
historically proven key to EM equity performance
2.
EM earnings are forecast to lead in 2016, with consumer earnings forecast to outperform
3.
EM investors should not fear the U.S. Federal Reserve: During the last three Fed tightening
cycles EM equities have performed well
4.
EM consumer sector has benefitted more when U.S. interest rates rise
5.
EM U.S. dollar debt concerns likely overblown with liabilities as a percent of GDP
range-bound for over 20 years and no sign of balance sheet stress within EM corporates
6.
EM valuations appear attractive relative to other markets and relative to their own historical
average
2016 Perspectives
What EM Investors Need to Know
Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, EGA, as of 12/31/2015. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual fund performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses, which could reduce returns. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Current performance data may be higher or lower than actual data quoted. For the most current index performance data please call + 1 888 800 4347.
7
© 2015 Emerging Global Advisors, LLC — All Rights Reserved.Global Index Total Return
12/31/2014 – 12/31/2015
Global Index Performance
Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, EGA, as of 12/31/2015. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual fund performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses, which could reduce returns. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Current performance data may be higher or lower than actual data quoted. For the most current index performance data please call + 1 888 800 4347.
1.4%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-14.7%
-14.8%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
S&P 500 Index
MSCI EAFE Index
MSCI World Index
MSCI Frontier Markets
Index
MSCI Emerging Markets
Index
Tot
al
Ret
Three years of underperformance from EM
•
The MSCI EM Index lost 14.8% in 2015 and has not had a positive return since 2012
–
The
prospect
of the first U.S. rate hike in over 9 years pressured EM, with
all
of EM weakness coming
before
the Fed's December 16 move; in fact, while the S&P 500 lost over 1.3% since December 16, MSCI
EM gained over 0.5%
–
Slowing Chinese growth and falling commodity prices also contributed
•
S&P 500 Index led global regional indices in 2015 and returned 1.4%
–
An improving economic outlook in the U.S. as well as a stronger U.S. dollar helped U.S. equities perform
better
•
The MSCI EAFE Index was the worst performer in 2014, but in 2015 it showed strength and
ended the year as the second best performing region with a flattish return of -0.2%
–
The continued support in the form of quantitative easing (QE) by the European Central Bank (ECB) and
Bank of Japan (BOJ), as well as initial signs of economic recovery helped EAFE perform better
•
The MSCI FM Index lost 14.7% in 2015, after producing a return of 6.7% in 2014
–
The concerns over slowing global growth and the slump in commodity prices, particularly oil, led to the
underperformance of the MSCI FM Index
9
© 2015 Emerging Global Advisors, LLC — All Rights Reserved.Emerging Markets Total Return by Country
12/31/2014 – 12/31/2015
Emerging Markets Country Performance
Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, EGA, as of 12/31/2015. LatAm is the MSCI Latin America Index, EMEA is the MSCI EM Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) Index and Asia is the MSCI EM Asia Index.
Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual fund performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses, which could reduce returns. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Current performance data may be higher or lower than actual data quoted. For the most current index performance data please call + 1 888 800 4347.
37.1% 5.0% -6.0% -6.1% -7.6% -8.5% -9.8% -11.1% -14.4% -16.5% -16.8% -17.9% -19.4% -19.5% -19.7% -20.1% -23.5% -23.6% -24.6% -25.2% -30.9% -31.5% -31.7% -41.2% -42.0% -61.3%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
H
un
ga
ry
Ru
ssia
Ph
ilip
pi
nes
In
dia
Ch
in
a
Sou
th
K
or
ea
A
sia
Ta
iwa
n
Me
xic
o
Cz
ech
Ch
ile
UA
E
In
don
es
ia
Q
at
ar
EME
A
Ma
la
ysia
Eg
yp
t
Th
ail
an
d
Pola
nd
Sou
th
A
fric
a
La
tA
m
Tu
rk
ey
Pe
ru
Bra
zi
l
Co
lom
bia
G
re
ece
Tot
al
Ret
urn
MSCI EM Index: -14.8%Asia led, EMEA and Latin America lagged
•
Within EM, just like 2014, Asia (-9.8%) was the best performer in 2015, Europe, Middle East and
Asia (EMEA) (-19.7%) and Latin America (-30.9%) both posted heavy losses
•
Hungary (+37.1%) and Russia (+5.0%) were the only countries to record positive returns;
Philippines (-6.0%), India (-6.1%), China (-7.6%) and Korea (-8.5%) performed relatively better
–
Hungary led the pack after signs of economic improvement in the euro zone
–
Russia bounced back in 2015 after being the worst performing market in 2014
–
Reform-oriented countries like India and China did relatively better and reform-driven markets continued
to outperform the broader EM index in 2015, continuing the trend from 2014
•
Commodity driven markets and those embroiled in political crises were the worst performing
markets
–
Greece (-61.3%), Colombia (-42.0%), Brazil (-41.2%), Peru (-31.7%) were the worst performing EM
countries in 2015
–
Greece’s performance was weighed down by the negotiation over a new debt agreement with its
international creditors and the political drama that followed (market shutdown, referendum, re-election)
–
Brazil’s loss was caused by a slump in commodity prices, deterioration in economic growth, credit rating
11
© 2015 Emerging Global Advisors, LLC — All Rights Reserved.Emerging Markets Total Return by Sector
12/31/2014 – 12/31/2015
Emerging Markets Sector Performance
•
Defensive sectors did relatively better
compared to cyclicals
•
All sectors registered negative returns for
2015
•
Health Care (-5.2%), Technology (-6.9%),
Consumers Staples (-9.1%) and Consumers
Discretionary (-11.4%) outperformed the
MSCI EM Index
•
Materials (-21.6%), Utilities (-20.7%),
Telecoms (-19.2%) and Financials (-18.6%)
were the worst performers
Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, EGA, as of 12/31/2015. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual fund performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses, which could reduce returns. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Current performance data may be higher or lower than actual data quoted. For the most current index performance data please call + 1 888 800 4347.
-5.2% -6.9% -9.1% -11.4% -16.8% -16.8% -18.6% -19.2% -20.7% -21.6%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
H
eal
th
Ca
re
Tec
hn
olog
y
St
ap
les
D
isc
re
tion
ary
En
er
gy
In
du
st
ria
ls
Fin
an
cia
ls
Tel
ec
oms
Ut
ili
tie
s
Ma
ter
ia
ls
Tot
al
Ret
urn
MSCI EM Index: -14.8%Frontier Markets Total Return by Country
12/31/2014 – 12/31/2015
Frontier Markets Country Performance
11.7% 4.0% 1.9% -0.4% -3.7% -4.2% -4.6% -5.4% -6.8% -9.4% -12.9% -12.9% -15.0% -15.5% -16.2% -17.6% -18.1% -20.2% -21.6% -22.1% -26.8% -35.0% -43.3% -46.2%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Est
on
ia
Leb
an
on
Rom
an
ia
A
rg
en
tin
a
Jor
da
n
Slov
en
ia
Lith
ua
ni
a
Vi
et
na
m
Croa
tia
O
ma
n
Moroc
co
Pa
kist
an
Tu
nisi
a
Ma
uri
tiu
s
K
uw
ait
Ba
ng
la
des
h
K
en
ya
Nig
er
ia
Ba
hra
in
Sri
La
nka
Ser
bia
Bu
lg
aria
Uk
ra
in
e
K
az
akh
st
an
Tot
al
Ret
urn
MSCI FM Index: -14.7%13
© 2015 Emerging Global Advisors, LLC — All Rights Reserved.Frontier markets (FM) followed EM down
•
The MSCI FM Index lost (-14.7%) in 2015
–
The concerns over the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike weighed on FM throughout the year. Like EM,
FM losses were also
before
the Fed hike, with FM gaining over 1.3% since the December 16 Fed move, and
S&P 500 losing over 1.3%.
–
Slowing global growth and geo-political issues weighed on FM performance
–
The losses were also linked to the sharp declines in commodity prices, which put pressure on commodity
dependent economies
•
Only three out of the twenty-four frontier countries managed to end 2015 in positive territory:
Estonia (+11.7%), Lebanon(+4.0%) and Romania (+1.9%).
•
Kazakhstan (-46.2%), Ukraine (-43.3%), Bulgaria (-35.0%), Serbia (-26.8%) and Sri Lanka (-22.1%)
were the worst performers
Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, EGA, as of 12/31/2015. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual fund performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses, which could reduce returns. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Current performance data may be higher or lower than actual data quoted. For the most current index performance data please call + 1 888 800 4347.
Emerging Market Equity ETF Fund Flows (cumulative)
1/1/2015 – 12/31/2015
Outflows continue for emerging market equity ETFs
•
A total of US$0.9 billion exited EM equity
(ex-China A shares) ETFs. This follows
US$3.7 billion of outflows in 2014.
•
In Q1, EM saw an outflow of US$3.1 billion
– Outflows increased in March when
strong U.S. economic data signalled
possibility of the Fed rate hike later in the
year
•
In Q2, EM experienced inflows of US$8.3
billion as the Fed pushed back the timing of
its first rate hike
•
Concerns over a global economic
slowdown drained investors’ risk appetite
in Q3 where EM saw outflows of US$10.5
billion; however in Q4 EM saw inflows of
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Flow
s in
US$ b
illi
on
s
Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 201515
© 2015 Emerging Global Advisors, LLC — All Rights Reserved.Notable Events in 2015
Source: Bloomberg, EGA, as of 12/31/2015. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual fund performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses, which could reduce returns. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Current performance data may be higher or lower than actual data quoted. For the most current index performance data please call + 1 888 800 4347.
750
790
830
870
910
950
990
1030
1070
1110
Jan-15
Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
M
S
CI
E
mergin
g
M
ark
et
P
rice
In
d
ex
ECB announced quantitative easing Alexis Tsipras elected as Greek PMThe Fed removed its reference to being
"patient" on rates
Former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari wins
Nigerian election
Saudi Arabia announces stock market access for
foreigners
AK Party wins Turkey election; lost its single-party
government
Governing PRI party did well in Mexico mid-term
election
The Fed indicated interest rates hike will be slow and
gradual
Greece defaults on IMF payment
Greece voted against further austerity
IMF cuts World growth outlook
China devalued its currency (RMB)
Brazil ratings cut to junk status by S&P
Alexis Tsipras re-elected as Greek PM
IMF cuts World growth forecasts again
AK Party wins Turkey re-election; gains single-party
government
ECB lowered interest rate and extended
asset purchase program
The Fed raises interest rate by 25
2016 PERSPECTIVE:
17
© 2015 Emerging Global Advisors, LLC — All Rights Reserved.A renaissance in EM growth
•
IMF forecasts that emerging markets
(EM) will grow 4.5% next year, up
from an estimated 4.0% in 2015
•
This would be the first
acceleration since 2010
, in part
reflecting a less deep recession in
countries that endured economic
distress in 2015 (including Brazil and
Russia)
•
Developed markets (DM) expected
to grow by 2.2% in 2016, up from an
estimated 2.0% in 2015, supported by
accommodative monetary policy and
growth recovery in Europe and Japan
EM GDP growth expected to accelerate in 2016
2000 – 2017e
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook, EGA, as of 12/31/2015. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual fund performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses, which could reduce returns. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Current performance data may be higher or lower than actual data quoted. For the most current index performance data please call + 1 888 800 4347.
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
e
20
17
e
G
D
P
G
ro
w
th
(%)
Change in EM GDP growth
Developed Markets
Emerging Markets
Growth is key to EM equity performance
•
Growth is the key driver of EM
equity performance
•
Historically, when EM GDP growth
accelerates quicker than DM GDP
growth (i.e., the EM to DM growth
differential increases),
EM equities
have usually outperformed
•
The GDP growth differential between
EM and DM is expected to increase
in 2016 for the first time since 2011
•
This may signal better performance
for EM equities
Rising GDP differential signals better EM performance
2000 – 2017e
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
e
20
17
e
EM p
er
for
ma
nc
e r
ela
tiv
e
to DM
EM t
o DM
G
D
P
gro
w
th
d
iff
er
en
tia
l
19
© 2015 Emerging Global Advisors, LLC — All Rights Reserved.Strong EM earnings growth with consumer earnings forecast to outperform
For the first time in 9 years,
consensus forecasts EM Earnings per
Share (EPS) growth will lead in 2016
•
During the last time EM earnings led
(2007), the MSCI EM Index gained
39.7%, outperforming the MSCI ACWI
Index (+12.4%), the MSCI EAFE Index
(+11.9%) and the MSCI U.S. Index
(+6.1%)
•
The companies in the Dow Jones
Emerging Markets Consumer Titans 30
Index, the index that the EGShares
Emerging Markets Consumer ETF
(ECON) tracks, are projected to see
their earnings grow by 22% next year
Corporate earnings growth
2016 consensus estimates
Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, EGA, as of 11/13/2015. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual fund performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses, which could reduce returns. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Current performance data may be higher or lower than actual data quoted. For the most current index performance data please call + 1 888 800 4347.
7%
7%
10%
10%
12%
22%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
MSCI EAFE
Index
MSCI World
ex US Index
MSCI Japan
Index
MSCI US
Index
MSCI EM
Index
Dow Jones
EM
Consumer
Titans 30
Index
EP
S g
ro
w
th
(2
01
6e)
2
EM investors should not fear the Fed
•
During the last three tightening cycles (’94, ‘99 and ‘04), EM equities have
performed well
•
Historically, EM equities on average have been 17% higher six months after the first hike in Fed
Funds rates (vs. 13% for EAFE and 5% for S&P 500 Index); and on average EM returned 25% six
months after the second rate hike (vs. 13% for EAFE and 5% for S&P 500 Index)
Behavior of EM equities after 2nd Fed rate hike
Last three instances
Behavior of EM equities after 1st Fed rate hike
Last three instances
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
MSC
I E
M I
nd
ex
p
er
for
ma
nc
e
2nd Fed Rate Hike60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
M
SCI
E
M
In
dex
p
er
for
man
ce
1st Fed Rate Hike21
© 2015 Emerging Global Advisors, LLC — All Rights Reserved.EM consumer sectors have benefited when U.S. interest rates rise
•
Past data has already shown that
rising U.S. interest rates is not
necessarily a harbinger of doom and
gloom for EM equities. On the
contrary, EM stocks have risen after
the Fed hikes interest rates.
•
Within EM, it is the
consumer that
has benefitted more when the
Fed tightened monetary policy.
Over the last two cycles of rising U.S.
interest rates, EM consumers have
performed better than broader EM.
EM consumer stocks have performed better
Last three instances
Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, EGA, as of 12/31/2015. EM Consumers is a market capitalization weighted average of the MSCI EM Consumer Staples and MSCI EM Consumer Discretionary indices. Data for MSCI EM sectors are available from 1995, hence n.a. for EM Consumers in 1994. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual fund performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses, which could reduce returns. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Current performance data may be higher or lower than actual data quoted. For the most current index performance data please call + 1 888 800 4347.
n.a.
22%
30%
6%
18%
25%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'94 rate hike
'99 rate hike
'04 rate hike
MSC
I E
M I
nd
ex
p
er
for
ma
nc
e (
6-mon
th
s)
MSCI EM Consumers
MSCI EM Index
The rise of the Indian consumer
•
India’s per capita household final
consumption expenditures levels
(constant 2005 US$) has reached an
all-time high $US730
•
This reflects a 10-year average
growth rate up 84% over the past
decade and at an all-time high
•
Looking at contributing macro
factors such as an aging, yet still
young population, birth rates, and per
capita GDP, our analysis suggests that
by 2020 per capita levels could reach
$1,025
India: consumption at an all-time high
1970 – 2014
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
H
ou
se
hold
fin
al
con
su
mp
tion
ex
pen
ditu
re
, p
er
c
ap
ita
gro
w
th
(con
st
an
t 2
00
5
US$)
, 1
0-yr a
vg
23
© 2015 Emerging Global Advisors, LLC — All Rights Reserved.EM U.S. dollar debt should not be a concern
•
U.S. dollar liabilities of EM economies
(sovereign, corporate and individual)
have been steadily rising over the last
ten years
•
However, this concern appears
overblown in context
•
When these liabilities are measured
as a percentage of economic output,
a different picture emerges
•
Liabilities appear to be
range-bound since 1990 and these
concerns appear overblown
EM U.S. dollar debt
1980 – 2014
Source: BIS, IMF – World Economic Outlook, EGA, as of 12/31/2015. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual fund performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses, which could reduce returns. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Current performance data may be higher or lower than actual data quoted. For the most current index performance data please call + 1 888 800 4347.
5
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
U.S.
dolla
r
lia
bil
itie
s
of
E
M %
of
G
D
P
U.S.
dolla
r
lia
bil
itie
s
of
E
M (
bil
lion
s)
No sign of balance sheet stress within EM corporates
•
Investors and the media alike have
expressed concerns over the debt
burden assumed by EM corporates
•
However, debt should be considered
on a net basis, that is gross liabilities
net of gross assets
•
Using the net debt/total equity ratio,
corporate EM does not appear
to be too leveraged
; the leverage
ratio has been in a narrow range
since 2000, after substantial
deleveraging following the 1997 Asian
crisis
EM: Net Debt/Total Equity
1995 – 2014
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
EM C
or
por
at
e N
et
D
eb
t/
Tot
al
Eq
uity
25
© 2015 Emerging Global Advisors, LLC — All Rights Reserved.The valuation case for EM
•
EM valuations appear attractive
relative to other markets and
relative to their own historical
average
•
The MSCI EM Index has declined
around 35% since its 2011 high and now
trades at 10.7x estimated earnings, or
almost one-third less than the valuation
of the S&P 500 Index
•
EM currently trades close to its 10-year
average forward P/E ratio, while
valuations in other regions are much
higher and close to their 10-year highs
EM valuations are relatively cheap
12/30/2005 – 12/31/2015
Source: FactSet, MSCI, EGA, as of 12/31/2015. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual fund performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses, which could reduce returns. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Current performance data may be higher or lower than actual data quoted. For the most current index performance data please call + 1 888 800 4347.
6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MSCI EM Index
MSCI EAFE Index MSCI ACWI Index
S&P 500 Index
12
-mon
th
Fo
rw
ard
P/
E
ra
tio
Keep in Mind: EM currencies are at an all-time low
•
EM currencies have reached all-time
lows and have fallen below the levels
reached during the 2008 Financial
Crisis
•
Record low currencies and low
relative equity valuations should
be supportive of the EM equities
EM currency
1/31/2000 – 12/31/2015
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
JP
M
or
ga
n
EM
Cu
rr
en
cy
In
dex
27
© 2015 Emerging Global Advisors, LLC — All Rights Reserved.Keep in Mind: Hedging EM currency exposure is expensive with no benefit
•
Over the past 16 years, there has
been no return benefit from hedging
EM equity investments: it would have
helped in 8 years and hurt in 8 years
•
The estimated EM FX short term
interest rate differential currently is
3.9% per year –
before
transaction
costs
•
The currency markets for other
international investments – Europe
(euro) and Japan (yen), are deep and
liquid. However, EM is not. EM FX is
heterogeneous and its currencies are
much more difficult to hedge.
Hedging EM: No benefit at a high cost
12/31/1999 – 12/31/2015
Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, EGA, as of 12/31/2015. Hedged Returns are represented by MSCI Emerging Markets Index (Local), Unhedged are represented by MSCI Emerging Markets (USD). Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual fund performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses, which could reduce returns. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Current performance data may be higher or lower than actual data quoted. For the most current index performance data please call + 1 888 800 4347.
5%
10%
-1%
-9% -9%
1%
-4%
-6%
7%
-16%
-5%
6%
-1%
6%
7%
10%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Ex
ces
s re
tu
rn
fro
m h
edg
in
g
cu
rr
en
cy
ex
posu
re
s
Average = 0.1%Keep in Mind: EM currencies do not create relatively higher volatility
•
EM currencies contribute to higher
volatility of U.S. dollar denominated
equity returns
•
However, EM and FM are not alone with
this challenge. Variations of currencies
in UK, EAFE and Japan have led to even
higher volatility in U.S. dollar returns in
their respective equity indices.
•
Over the long run, EM and FM
currencies have each resulted in a 1.1%
increase in equity volatility, which
compares favorably to the 2.4% increase
contributed by currencies in the UK,
2.2% increase in EAFE, and the 1.3%
increase in Japan
EM currencies do not create relatively higher volatility
12/31/1987 – 12/31/2015
16.8%
17.2%
20.7%
23.2%
19.0%
14.4%
14.4%
15.0%
19.5%
22.1%
18.0%
14.4%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
MSCI UK
Index
MSCI EAFE
Index
MSCI Japan
Index
MSCI EM
Index
MSCI FM
Index
S&P 500
Index
A
nn
ua
lised
V
ola
til
ity
29
© 2015 Emerging Global Advisors, LLC — All Rights Reserved.Keep in Mind: Time in the markets is more important than timing the markets
•
Missing just a very few of the best
performing trading days can be
significantly detrimental to returns
•
Total returns for the MSCI EM Index
since the start of 2000 is 136%, yet
falls off sharply to below zero once
only the best 15 of the 4175 trading
days have been missed
EM: Market Timing vs. Time In The Market
Since 2000
Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, EGA, as of 12/31/2015. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual fund performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses, which could reduce returns. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Current performance data may be higher or lower than actual data quoted. For the most current index performance data please call + 1 888 800 4347.
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Tot
al
re
tu
rn
s
of
t
he M
SCI
E
M I
nd
ex
Summary
1.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a renaissance in EM growth, which has
historically proven key to EM equity performance
2.
EM earnings are forecast to lead in 2016, with consumer earnings forecast to outperform
3.
EM investors should not fear the U.S. Federal Reserve: During the last three Fed tightening
cycles EM equities have performed well
4.
EM consumer sector has benefitted more when U.S. interest rates rise
5.
EM U.S. dollar debt concerns likely overblown with liabilities as a percent of GDP
range-bound for over 20 years and no sign of balance sheet stress within EM corporates
6.
EM valuations appear attractive relative to other markets and relative to their own historical
2016 Perspectives
31
© 2015 Emerging Global Advisors, LLC — All Rights Reserved.Glossary of Terms
Developed Markets (DM) are countries that are most developed in terms of economy and capital markets. They generally have high per capita income or GDP, as
well as openness to foreign ownership, ease of capital movement and efficiency of market institutions.
Earnings Growth is the rate at which a company has grown its profitability per unit of equity over a given time period.
Earnings per Share (EPS) is the amount of income earned during a period per share of common stock.
Emerging Markets (EM) are countries with less advanced capital markets and less established stock markets than those in developed markets; these countries
have embarked on economic development and reform programs as well as begun to open up their markets and emerge.
Frontier Markets (FM) are countries with less advanced capital markets and less established stock markets than those in the emerging markets.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) a money measure of the goods and services produced within a country's borders over a stated time period.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a type of monetary policy where central banks target the supply of money by buying government bonds.
Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E Ratio) (Forward) is the sum of Bloomberg consensus estimates for the future 12-month earnings of the equity holdings, divided by
the total market value of the equity holdings. Both positive and negative earnings are included in the calculation.
33
© 2015 Emerging Global Advisors, LLC — All Rights Reserved.Index Definitions
Dow Jones Emerging Markets Consumer Titans 30 Index is a free-float market capitalization-weighted index that measures the performance of 30
leading emerging market companies in the Consumer Goods and Consumer Services Industries as defined by S&P Dow Jones Indexes.
JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is a benchmark for Emerging Markets currencies versus the US dollar.
MSCI All Country World (ACWI) Index is an index that captures large and mid-cap representation across 23 developed markets and 23 emerging markets
countries.
MSCI Europe, Australasia, Far East (EAFE) Index captures large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding
the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index is an index that is designed to measure the equity market performance in global emerging markets.
MSCI EM Asia Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of the emerging
market countries of Asia.
MSCI EM Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity
market performance of the emerging market countries of Europe, the Middle East & Africa.
MSCI EM Latin America Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of
emerging markets in Latin America.
MSCI Frontier Markets (FM) Index is an index that captures large and mid cap representation across 24 Frontier Markets countries.
MSCI Japan Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Japanese markets.
MSCI United Kingdom (UK) Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the UK market.
MSCI World Index is an index that captures large and mid cap representation across 23 Developed Markets countries.
Additional Disclosures
The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a
component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to
make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or
guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes
the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any
MSCI information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy,
completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the
foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost
profits) or any other damages.
The Global Industry Classification Standard ("GICS") was developed by and is the exclusive property and a service mark of MSCI Inc. (“MSCI”) and Standard & Poor’s,
a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (“S&P”) and is licensed for use by Emerging Global Advisors, LLC. Neither MSCI, S&P nor any third party involved in
making or compiling the GICS or any GICS classifications makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such standard or classification
(or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability
and fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of such standard or classification. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, S&P, any of
their affiliates or any third party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any GICS classifications have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive,
consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages.
The Dow Jones Emerging Markets Consumer Titans 30 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ("SPDJI"), and has been licensed for use by Emerging Global Advisors. Standard & Poor's® and S&P® are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC ("S&P"); Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC ("Dow Jones"); and these trademarks have been licensed for use by SPDJI and sublicensed for certain purposes by Emerging Global Advisors. EGShares ECON ETF is not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&P, their respective affiliates and none of such parties make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product(s) nor do they have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of the above mentioned indices.
35
© 2015 Emerging Global Advisors, LLC — All Rights Reserved.Edward Kerschner, CFA
Vice Chairman
Investment Strategist
Steve Mo
Investment Strategist
Neeraj Agarwal
C O N T A C T I N F O R M A T I O N
VISIT: emergingglobaladvisors.com
READ:
Emerging Perspectives
CALL: +1 888 800 4347