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Beyond climate envelopes : bio climate modelling accords with observed 25 year changes in seabird populations of the British Isles

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Figure

Table 1 Goodness-of-fit (bootstrapped AUC values and percentage deviance explained) of climate response surface models for breeding seabirds in coastal Europe, together with median latitude and prevalence in their European range, and percentage changes in
Figure 1 Example of climate response surface (CRS) for (i) Parasitic Jaeger and (ii) Little Tern: (a) match between observed and simulated distribution in 1985 based on CRS and (b) relationship between log e population size (1985 –1988) in occupied grid sq
Figure 2 Relationship between the association of species’ breeding distributions with climate (assessed using area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic plots (AUC) of climate response surface models) and changes in numbers of breeding seabi

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