Macro Research
Andean Macro Weekly Report
Chile: Chilean economy grew 2.6% in Sep-15
Last week’s highlights
The Chilean economy grew 2.6% y/y in Sep-15,
above the
market consensus (2.2%) and our estimate (2.1%). Growth in
Sep-15 was driven by services (whose monthly growth is not
published) and manufacturing production (1.8% y/y). With this
result, the 3Q15 posted a preliminary growth of 2.1% y/y;
official quarterly figures will be published on November 18
th
.
According to the INE, Oct-15 inflation stood at 0.4% m/m,
above the market’s estimate (0.3%) and our expectation
(0.2%). During this month, upward pressures on inflation were
mainly explained by the rise in food and non-alcoholic
beverages (0.8% m/m), and by housing services (0.6% m/m)
prices. With this result, annual inflation decelerated to 4.0%
y/y.
Main data and events to come
On Thursday, the BCCh will hold its Nov-15 monetary
policy meeting.
We expect no movements in the policy rate.
Colombia: Inflation strongly surprised to the upside for the
third consecutive month in Oct-15 as food and tradable prices
do not take a breath
Last week’s highlights
According to DANE, Oct-15 inflation stood at +0.68% m/m,
below Sep-15’s (0.72%) but well above market consensus
(0.40%) and our expectation (0.38%). With this result, the
yearly figure accumulated an impressive increase of 115bp in
the last two months, reaching 5.9%.
Food and tradable prices led the advance in Oct-15, once
again. Food prices jumped 1.38% m/m after rising 1.29% in
Sep-15. This is remarkable as October has been historically
characterized by negative prints (e.g. 2014: 0.02%; 2013:
-1.0%). Indeed, the m/m variations observed during Sep-15 and
Oct-15 are the highest for these months since 1997, when the
last strong El Niño event occurred.
MACRO RESEARCH
This report is property of IM Trust S.A. and/or Credicorp Capital Colombia S.A Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa and/or Credicorp Capital S.A.A. and/or its subsidiaries (hereinafter jointly called
“Credicorp Capital”), therefore, no part of this the material or its content, nor any copy of it may altered in any way, transmitted, copied or distributed to any third party without prior and express written
consent of Credicorp Capital. In making this report, Credicorp Capital has relied on information from public sources. Credicorp Capital has not verified the truthfulness, completeness or accuracy of
the information accessed, nor has audit the information in any way. Accordingly, this report does not constitute a statement, assertion or guarantee (express or implied) as to the truth, accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein or any other written or oral information furnished to any person and/or their advisors.
climatic event could have a similar intensity to the one observed in 97-98. Given this
scenario, food prices are responding to reduced rainfall across the country. On the other
hand, it is worth mentioning that in the presentation of its inflation report, the governor of
BanRep’s Board, José Dario Uribe, mentioned that inflation may close 2016 slightly above
4%.
We now expect inflation to reach 6.15% by year-end but we continue to see it below 4% by
Dec-16. Furthermore, the BanRep may continue to tighten its monetary policy. Inflation
expectations will remain a key factor. In any case, the better-than-expected activity figures
in recent months give the BanRep more room to act if necessary. A 25bp hike in the
Nov-15 meeting seems now more likely.
Exports went down 43.4% y/y in Sep-15,
from USD 5.1 bn to USD 2.9 bn, reaching its
12
th
consecutive month of strong drops. Unsurprisingly, sales of fuels and products from
extractive industries continues to be the main driver of exports’ plunge, posting a
contraction of 58.6% y/y, which continues to be mainly explained by the drop of oil and oil
derivatives sales (-60.2% y/y); likewise, the amount of exported barrels contracted for the
fourth consecutive time (-10.4% y/y). Furthermore, the external sales of the groups of
manufactured goods and agricultural products also contracted during Sep-15 (15.6% and
0.8%, respectively). With this result, YTD exports decreased 34.9% y/y.
Main data and events to come
On Friday, BanRep will publish the minutes of its most recent meeting,
when a
surprising 50bp rate hike was performed.
Peru: BCRP announced new measures to reduce dollarization of credits
Last week’s highlights
Last week, the Central Bank announced new measures to limit further the use of
dollars in credits (dollarization ratio in sep-15: 30.0%), including car loans and
mortgages, in order to reduce exposure to FX rate.
As of Dec-16, additional reserves
will be set aside by financial institutions that exceed 80% of dollar loans from Sep-13 and
70% in their outstanding mortgage and car loans as of Feb-13. The measure won’t affect
loans for exports or financing of more than 3 years.
The Ministry of Production announced the opening of a second anchovy season,
setting the quota at 1.1 million tons. Also, ENFEN reduced the probability of an
extraordinary El Niño Phenomenon during the 2015-2016 summer from 15% in
Oct-15 to 5% in Nov-Oct-15.
We expect the economy to grow around 3.5% in 4Q15, the most
dynamic quarter of 2015, due to the growth of the fishing industry thanks to the 2
nd
season
opening, increasing mining production and the recovery of public investment.
The FX rate closed at 3.314, its highest print since Apr-06.
Year-to-date, the local
currency has depreciated 11.2% against the USD, while on an annual basis, the currency
has lost 13.1% of its value against the greenback.
Main data and events to come
This Thursday, the Board of the BCRP will hold its monthly meeting,
we expect it to
keep the reference rate unchanged at 3.50%.
Credicorp Capital | Macro Research
MILA indicators (monthly changes unless noted otherwise)
MILA - Previous week
Event
Country
Frequency
Period
Previous
Last
Survey
Surprise
CPI YoY (%)
Chile
Monthly
October
4.60
4.00
3.90
-0.10
CPI MoM (%)
Chile
Monthly
October
0.50
0.40
0.30
-0.10
Economic Activity MoM (%)
Chile
Monthly
September
-1.00
1.10
0.60
-0.50
Economic Activity YoY (%)
Chile
Monthly
September
1.10
2.60
2.20
-0.40
PPI Domestic MoM (%)
Colombia
Monthly
October
1.13
-0.02
--
--Exports FOB (USD MM)
Colombia
Monthly
September
2809.10
2867.10
3000.00
132.90
CPI YoY (%)
Colombia
Monthly
October
5.35
5.89
5.60
-0.29
CPI MoM (%)
Colombia
Monthly
October
0.72
0.68
0.40
-0.28
CPI YoY (%)
Peru
Monthly
October
3.90
3.66
3.64
-0.02
CPI MoM (%)
Peru
Monthly
October
0.03
0.14
0.10
-0.04
Wholesale Price Index MoM (%)
Peru
Monthly
October
0.22
0.02
--
--MILA - This week
Event
Country
Date
Frequency
Period
Previous
Last
Survey
Trade Balance (USD MM)
Chile
11/09/2015
Monthly
October
-85.00
-170.00
-190.00
Exports Total (USD MM)
Chile
11/09/2015
Monthly
October
4902.20
5038.80
5382.30
Copper Exports (USD MM)
Chile
11/09/2015
Monthly
October
2441.70
2493.00
--Overnight Rate Target (%)
Chile
11/12/2015
Monthly
November
3.25
--
3.25
Trade Balance (USD MM)
Peru
11/09/2015
Monthly
September
-231.00
--
-458.00
Source: DANE
Colombia: CPI: total, food and ex-food
(% change y/y)
Colombia: Trade balance
(USD mn)
Peru: GDP
(% change y/y)
Peru: FX rate and BCRP’s spot sales
(USDPEN, USD mn)
Source: BCRP, Macro Research
Source: BCRP
Source: DANE
Source: BCCh
(% change y/y)
Source: INE
(% change y/y)
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
ene
-09
m
ay
-0
9
se
p-09
ene
-10
m
ay
-1
0
se
p-10
ene
-11
m
ay
-1
1
se
p-11
ene
-12
ma
y-12
se
p-12
ene
-13
m
ay
-1
3
se
p-13
ene
-14
ma
y-14
se
p-14
ene
-15
m
ay
-1
5
se
p-15
Imacec (% change y/y)
Imacec (% change m/m, right axis)
4.0%
5.1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
ene
-13
ma
r-13
ma
y-13
ju
l-13
se
p-13
nov
-13
ene
-14
m
ar-1
4
ma
y-14
ju
l-14
se
p-14
nov
-14
ene
-15
m
ar-1
5
ma
y-15
ju
l-15
se
p-15
IPC
IPCX
IPCX1
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Aug-0
1
Jun-02
Ap
r-0
3
Feb-04
Dec
-04
Oct-0
5
Aug-0
6
Ju
n-07
Ap
r-0
8
Feb-0
9
De
c-09
Oct-1
0
Aug-1
1
Ju
n-12
Ap
r-1
3
Feb-14
Dec
-14
Oct
-1
5
Total
Food
Ex-food
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
Ma
y-08
Sep
-0
8
Ja
n-09
Ma
y-09
Sep
-0
9
Ja
n-10
Ma
y-10
Sep
-1
0
Ja
n-11
Ma
y-11
Sep
-1
1
Ja
n-12
Ma
y-12
Sep-12
Ja
n-13
Ma
y-13
Sep
-1
3
Ja
n-14
Ma
y-14
Sep
-1
4
Ja
n-15
Ma
y-15
Trade balance
Exports (right axis)
Imports (right axis)
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
*
GDP
Non-primary GDP
Primary GDP (right axis)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
Ja
n-15
Fe
b-15
M
ar
-15
Ap
r-15
M
ay
-15
Ju
n-15
Ju
l-15
Au
g-15
Se
p-15
O
ct
-15
Credicorp Capital | Macro Research
Important Disclosures
This report is property of IM Trust S.A. and/or Credicorp Capital Colombia S.A Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa and/or Credicorp
Capital S.A.A. and/or its subsidiaries (hereinafter jointly called “Credicorp Capital”), therefore, no part of this the material or its content,
nor any copy of it may altered in any way, transmitted, copied or distributed to any third party without prior and express written consent
of Credicorp Capital.
In making this report, Credicorp Capital has relied on information from public sources. Credicorp Capital has not verified the
truthfulness, completeness or accuracy of the information accessed, nor has audit the information in any way.. Accordingly, this report
does not constitute a statement, assertion or guarantee (express or implied) as to the truth, accuracy or completeness of the information
contained herein or any other written or oral information furnished to any person and/or their advisors.
Unless otherwise stated, the information used in this report is confidential, nor is privileged information that may mean the violation of
the rules of the stock market, or that it could mean failure to comply with copyright legislation.
This report is not intended and shall not be understood in any way as to: a) predict the future or guarantee a specific financial result. b)
ensure the fulfillment of the scenarios described in it. c) an investment advice or opinion that could be considered as Credicorp Capital
recommendations.
The information contained in this report is only for referential purposes. While reading it, you should consider that the information
contained in this report may be oriented to a specific segment of clients or investors, with a certain risk profile that may not be yours.
Unless otherwise stated, this report does not contain investment recommendations or other suggestions that may be understood to be
given under the stock market intermediaries’ special duty to clients classified as investors. When recommendations are made, the
report will clearly specify the investors risk profile to which the recommendation is intended. Credicorp Capital can seek and/or conduct
business with companies that are mentioned in the report, and they can also execute buying and selling transactions of shares that are
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It is important to state that the fluctuation in exchanges rates can have adverse effects on investments values.
It is client responsibility to determine how to use of the information contained in this report. Hence, he is the sole responsible for
investment decisions or any other operation he might perform in the stock market based on this report. In other words, the investment or
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assume any responsibility, obligation or duty for any action or omission derived from the use of this document.
Credicorp Capital recommends to their clients to ask for professional advice from financial, legal, accounting, tax experts before
adopting an investment decision. Under no circumstances the information contained in this report may be considered as a financial,
legal, accounting or taxation opinion, neither as a recommendation or investment advice.
Hugo Horta Head of Capital Markets hhorta@credicorpcapital.com # (511) 416 3333 Ext 36088
CREDICORP CAPITAL
Hernán ArellanoHead of Equities
COLOMBIA PERU harellano@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2446 1706 Daniel Velandia Carlos Prieto
Head of Research & Chief Economist Chief Economist Javier Günther Marilyn Macdonald Cristián Castillo
dvelandia@credicorpcapital.com carlosprietob@bcp.com.pe Equity Sales International Equity Sales International Sales Trader International
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# (562) 2450 1695 # (4477) 7151 5855 # (786) 999 1633
Camilo A. Durán Joao Ribeiro Karla Farro
Economist Economist Economist Cristopher DiSalvatore
caduran@credicorpcapital.com jribeiros@bcp.com.pe kfarro@bcp.com.pe Institutional sales
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1383 # (511) 313 2000 Ext 36308 # (511) 313 2000 Ext 37015 cdisalvatore@credicorpcapital.com
# (786) 999 1236 CHILE Junior Aguilar José Rivera
Economist Economist CHILE COLOMBIA PERÚ
Paulina Yazigi jaguilar@bcp.com.pe Joseriverae@bcp.com.pe
Head of Research & Chief Economist # (511) 313 2000 Ext 37055 # (511) 313 2000 Ext 33107 René Ossa Juan A. Jiménez Rodrigo Zavala
pyazigi@credicorpcapital.com Equity Sales International Head of Equity Sales International Head of Equity - Peru
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CHILE COLOMBIA PERÚ Felipe García
Head of Fixed Income Carolina Ratto Mallie Daniel Velandia César Cuervo fgarcia@credicorpcapital.com Senior Associate Head of Research & Chief Economist Head of North Andean Equity Research # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1280 cratto@credicorpcapital.com dvelandia@credicorpcapital.com ccuervo@credicorpcapital.com
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# (562) 2450 1688 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1012 # (511) 205 9190 Ext 33052 CHILE COLOMBIA PERÚ
Tomás Sanhueza Jaime Pedroza Iván Bogarín Gonzalo Covarrubias Carlos Sanchez Alfredo Bejar
Analyst: F&B, Healthcare, Transport Senior Analyst: Utilities Senior Analyst: Retail & Others Head of Sales & Trading Head of Fixed Income Trading Head of Fixed Income / FX Trading tsanhueza@credicorpcapital.com jpedroza@credicorpcapital.com ibogarin@credicorpcapital.com gcovarrubias@credicorpcapital.com csanchez@credicorpcapital.com alfredobejarg@credicorpcapital.com
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