NIGERIA

A country on the edge

A Country in Contrast

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Africa’s most populous state

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One of the largest countries of the world

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A strong democracy movement but coupled with

totalitarian military rule

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One of the largest oil deposits in world

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70% live in poverty

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Lack of national coherent identity

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Many ethnicities

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Flagrantly fraudulent national elections

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Two trends impacting Nigerian politics

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Democratization efforts

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Efforts to manage contentious ethnic and religious

Section One: Sovereignty,

Authority, Power

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Independent nation since 1960 but no agreement on

how or who should rule

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Dilemma is called the “national question”

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Constitutionalism

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1

one written 1914

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last one introduced 1999 and heavily amended

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Constitutionalism has eluded Nigeria

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Military and civilian leaders have felt free to disobey

Legitimacy

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National question is at heart of country’s legitimacy

problems

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Has strong impulses toward fragmentation

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Military is one of few truly national organizations in

Nigeria – source of stability and legitimacy

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Currently legitimacy is very low – citizens have little or

no trust in their leaders’ abilities to run the county

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Corruption of Babangida and Abacha alienated

citizens even farther

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Many question why pay taxes

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Importance source of legitimacy in north is sharia –

became public law 1999

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Federal police will not enforce harshest parts of sharia

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In north hybrid public elementary schools offer Islamic

Political Traditions - Precolonial

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Centralized stated developed – esp. in north savannah

lands –shaped by trade across Sahara - brought

material good, Arabic education, and Islam

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Transportation and communication easier in south

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North needed government to coordinate crop

irrigation

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Influences of era are:

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Trade connections

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Early influence of Islam

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Kinship-based politics

Political Traditions - Colonial

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Britain brought rule of law with them, but planted

influences that worked against democratic patterns

set in place during pre-colonial period

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Authoritarian rule

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Interventionist state

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Individualism

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Christianity

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Intensification of

Political Traditions – Since

Independence

• Nigeria broke with colonial past in 1960

• Has had less time to develop a national identity and political stability

• Struggled to make Parliamentary style work - ethnic divisions made difficult to identify a majority party

• Replaced it with presidential system, legislature, judiciary but last two don’t check power of president

• Ethnic conflict led to military rule of Agiyi Ironsi – was then killed in coup which sparked Igbo to fight for independence – Biafran Civil War

• Personalized rule/corruption

• Federalism –to mollify ethnic tensions and remain one country

• Economic dependence on oil

• Two trends in current Nigerian political development

• _{Democratization has not produced good governance}

Political Culture - Characteristics

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Patron-clientelism (prebendalism) – practice of

exchanging political and economic favors among

patrons and clients - are generally linked to clients by

ethnicity and religion

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State control but still rich civil society - groups relate

to the government through corporatism and

clientelism

Geographic Influences

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Located in W. Africa

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Was colony of Britain as N. and S. Nigeria – 2

protectorates merged in 1914

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Population of 140 million - greater than all other 14

nations of W. Africa

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Lagos – rated one of the worst places to live in the

world

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Divided into 6 zones

• Northwest – Hausa-Fulani – largest ethnic group – Muslim

• Northeast – Muslim – Kanuri as majority

• Middle Belt – mix of Christian and Muslim – wide range of minority groups

• Southwest – Yoruba (2nd largest ethnic group) – 40% Muslim,

40% Christian, 20% native

• Southeast – Igbo – Roman Catholic with growing number of protestants

Section Two: Political and

Economic Change

• Political influences and economic practices in pre-colonial days varied widely according to ethnicity and region

• British control brought contradictory political influences – democracy vs. subjugation to colonial rule

Pre-Colonial Era 800 – 1860 C.E.

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Geography dictated political, social, and economic

development

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Savanna invited trade through Sahara – change occurred

through cultural diffusion

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Diffusion of Islam was gradual

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Important group – the Fulani – came to north through

jihad - established Sokoto Caliphate – used Islam and

common language to forge unity

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On southern edge of savanna politics conducted along

kinship lines

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Caliphate traded with Europeans and eventually

succumbed to British rule by 1900

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People of south lived communally and in close contact

The Colonial Era 1860 - 1960

• British colonization for trade, natural resources, labor

• 1860 imposed indirect rule - strongest in South

• North –left area’s government structures intact – further emphasized differences between north and south

• Introduced western style education – first university founded 1948

• Created literate population but reinforced cleavages – elites

more separated from people and deepened rift between N. and S.

• Most of the schools were in South

• Three largest ethnic groups comprise 2/3 of Nigeria’s population and dominate the political process

• British pitted ethnic groups against each other for “divide and rule” strategy –Initially ethnically based associations concerned with nonpolitical issues

• Nigeria’s first political party – National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC) drew support across Nigeria but at

independence elites began to divide along ethnic lines

Modern Nigeria – 1

Republic and Military Rule

• First Republic 1960 – 1966

• Granted independence

• Adopted British model of government

• Northerners dominated federal government due to large population

• Prime minister Tafawa Balewa and President Nnamdi Azikiwe from different parties - each asked military for support – set the stage for a coup d'état

• Civil War and Military Rule 1966 – 1979

• 1966 Igbo seized power – set in motion tendency for government to

change hands quickly and violently – Aguiyi Ironsi became head of state but killed in coup 1966

• Yakubu Gowon became head of state

• Many northern officials were killed in coup so was a backlash against Igbos

• 1967 Igbos tried to secede and form Biafra – Gowon led 3 year war of attrition and starvation – at least 1 million died

• Gowon postponed return to civilian rule and was overthrown 1975 by Murtala Muhammad – he was assassinated quickly

Second and Third Republics

and Predatory Military Rule

• President Shagari ruled from 1979 - 1983 – was part of National Party of Nigeria (NPN) – used fraud and violence in elections

• Led to 1983 coup by General Muhammed Buhari –didn’t pledge rapid return to democratic rule and failed to revive the economy – support wavered and 1985 Ibrahim Babangida seized power

• Babangida announced transition to democratic rule but stalled to extend his tenure in office – annulled presidential election in

1993 of Chief Moshood Abiola who was taken into custody where he died - annulment of election forced resignation of Babangida

• General Sani Abacha seized power – used repression and

promises of return to democracy – sudden death in 1998 was called a “coup from Heaven”

Fourth Republic – 1999 to present

• _{Obasanjo back in power in 1999 – many felt ex-military}

leader could keep armed forces in barracks

• _{Civil society groups thrived, media exposed corrupt practices}

but Obasanjo surrounded by people he didn’t trust so kept his own council

• _{2003 election had rigged election – he won but public}

confidence failed him

• _{He was able to pay off most of Nigeria’s heavy foreign debt –}

despite overspending

• _{Tried to extend his term of office twice – defeated each time} • _{Massive fraudulent election in 2007}

• _{Picked successor Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and had himself}

named “chairman for life” of PDP

• _{Yar’Adua – 1}st university graduate to become president but he died in 2010 and Vice President Goodluck Jonathan took over

Modern Political Problems

• Elections of 1999, 2003, 2007 rife with fraud and violence

• Ethnic identities is major basis of conflict in Nigeria

• Independence brought on competition among groups

• Competition among military generals for control of the county became based on ethnicity

• Style of military heads of state varied - all talked of moving to democracy but only Obasanjo and Abubakar yielded to

elected government

• Corruption has been institutionalized

• Economically shifted to nonfood export crops in the 1960s – have had to import food since then

• 2/3 of money received from oil sales from Persian Gulf War

1991 ended up in hands of Nigerian elites – spurred corruption

Section Three: Citizens, Society, and the State

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Many societal characteristics of Nigeria make

democratization a challenge

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Poverty

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Large gap between rich and poor

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Health issues

Cleavages

• Ethnicity – 250 – 400 separate ethnic groups - three largest Hausa-Fulani, Igbo, Yoruba – have very little in common

• Religion - persistent source of comfort and basis of conflict

• ½ are Muslim

• 40% are Christian

• 10% native

• Region/north vs. south

• Divided into three Federated Regions in 1955 – follows ethnic and religious divisions

• Can also divide nation between north and south

• Urban/rural differences

• Political organization are interest groups are in cities

• Most organized protests take place in cities

• Social Class

Public Opinion and Political Participation

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Is not a democracy

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Citizens have been encouraged to relate to

government as subjects, not active participants

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There are some professional associations, trade

unions, religious groups, interest groups emerging

Patron-Clientelism (Prebendalism)

• Usually takes place in rural areas

• All public offices are treated as personal fiefdoms

Civil Society

• Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People – MOSOP – Ken Saro-Wiwa – worked to secure financial benefits for Ogoni and hold foreign oil companies to environmental standards

• Trade unions/professional organizations have been active in

trying to protect rights of their members like NUPENG – National Union of Petroleum and Gas Workers

Voting Behavior

• Political parties are numerous and fluid

Ken Saro-Wiwa:

Attitudes toward Government

• Skeptical of prospects for democracy

• Early days were more favorable attitudes toward government

• Only 50% said they would go to the police if victims of a crime – avoid it because of bribes

• But said 2011 election was better than 2007 election

• Government officials are very corrupt – Nigeria rates low on Transparency International Corruptions Perceptions Index

• Yar’Adua 2008 removed Nuhu Ribadu from head of Economic and Financial Crimes Commission –had

Protests and Political Participation

• Have been known to attack foreign based oil companies – blown up pipelines, kidnapped foreign oil workers

• Amnesty signed 2009 so conflicts have lessened

• 2011 election of Goodluck Jonathan caused protest in North- upset that informal rule of alternating presidents between N. and S. had been violated

• Boko Haram – carried out almost daily shootings and

occasional bombings trying to undermined him – say are fighting to get wider application of sharia law

• 2013 Boko Haram killed over 1,000 people and

government launched campaign to crush them – put large part of North under state of emergency

Modernity versus Traditionalism

• Interaction of Western elements and traditional practices have created tensions

• People tend to identify with their immediate ethnic, regional, and religious groups rather than with state institutions

Section Four: Political Institutions

not generally operated as such

• International factors have forced Nigeria to turn to

supranational organizations like World Bank and IMF to help restructure their economy

• Linkage Institutions - Political Parties

• Are both newly developed and highly fluid

• Regionally and ethnically based

• Extreme factionalism

• Almost impossible to create a coherent party system

Elections of 2003, 2007, 2011

• Began 1998

• Party of Obasanjo 2003 – won 62% of vote

• Party of Umaru Yar’Adua – won 70% of the votes

• Gained majority in National Assembly, most governors were PDP

• Difficult to know real support due to corruption

• 2011 Jonathan elected

• _{Congress for Progressive Change – CPC}

• Founded 2009 – began as The Buhari Organization (TBO) formed in 2006 by General Muhammadu Buhari

• Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN)

• Formerly Action Congress

Election of 2015

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All Progressive Congress

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2013 formed from alliance of 3 biggest opposition

parties: Action Congress of Nigeria, Congress for

Progressive Change, and All Nigeria Peoples Party

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Ran Muhammadu Buhari – won 53.96% of vote – was

1

time the opposition had a realistic chance of

winning – chose Professor Yemi Osinbajo a Christian

from SW as his VP

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PDP ran Goodluck Jonathan – won 44.96% of vote

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1

time an incumbent president lost a re-election

campaign in Nigeria

Election Trends

• Trend in elections since 1999 is for parties to lose regional base and draw support from many parts of country

• PDP originated in Muslim north and has become dominant party but due to violence levels hard for PDP to claim legitimacy

• Party registrations with Independent National Election Commission (INEC) began in 1998

• In order to run candidates party had to earn at least 5% of votes in 2/3 of states’ local elections

• INEC widely accused of corruption in 2007 election - INEC left VP Abubaker name off the list of official candidates –was overturned by Supreme Court

• 2011 Jonathan asked Attahiru Jega to draw up new voter register, remove names of frauds, have ballot papers printed abroad,

switch to “open secret ballot”

Elections and Electoral Procedures

National Elections

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Presidential Elections

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If president doesn’t get majority, 2

ballot may take

place

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Must receive at least 25% of all votes cast in 2/3 of

the states

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urely regional candidate can’t win

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Legislative Elections

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Senate has 109 senators – 3 from each of 36 states,

1 from Abuja – direct popular vote

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360 members of House elected from single member

districts by plurality votes

Election Fraud

• 2003 – overall international teams said it as corrupt, ballot boxes were vandalized, stolen, or stuffed – S. vote very

suspicious

• INEC has made efforts to clean it up

• 2007 – were worse – deeply flawed results; Obasanjo tried to run for a 3rd term but National Assembly didn’t ratify it

• INEC disqualified VP Abubaker – last minute ballots had him but ballots showed only party symbols, no names and had no serial numbers to reduce fraud; ballot box theft, long delays, shortage of ballots, no privacy for votes, unused ballots marked and stuffed, 200 died

• 2011 – improvement – Jonathan 59% and Buhari 32% - but flaws still existed with underage voting and chaotic local counting centers – showed ethnic and religious divide

Interest Groups

• Before military oppression of 1980s were independent and powerful

• Challenged government in colonial and post-colonial eras

• Babangida devised ways to limit their influence through corporatism

• Is still an active labor membership today

• 2007 Nigeria Labor Congress had successful strike in cities to protest government’s hike in fuel prices and taxes

• Business Interests

• Tended to work in collaboration with military regimes during last decades

Mass Media

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Has well-developed, independent press

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Press reflects ethnic divisions within the country

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Outspoken papers are in the south

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Generals from north have often interpreted criticism

of the press as ethnic slurs reflective of region-based

stereotypes

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Radio is main source of information with newspapers

and TV more common in cities

The Institutions of National

Government

• Is in theory a federal political system

• Three branches of government

• In reality executive branch is dominate

• Strong president theoretically checked by bicameral legislature and an independent judiciary

• But neither federalism or checks and balances operate and state and local governments are totally dependent on

The Executive

• 1979 created and got rid of parliamentary system

• Hoped popularly elected president could symbolize unity and rise above weak party system

• US presidential model was followed

• When military leaders launched coups all promised a

“transition to democracy” but only 2 did so – Obasanjo in 1979 and Abubaker in 1999

• Buhari, Babangida, and Abacha known for repressive tactics

• Appoint senior officials without legislative approval and no branch has consistently checked its power

• Patrimonialism

• Generals ruled under this system – president head of

The Bureaucracy

• Bribery is common, jobs awarded by prebendalism

• Rapid increase in number of jobs

• Para-Statals

• Many Nigerian government agencies– corporations owned by the state and designated to provide commercial and social welfare services

• Theoretically are privately owned but boards are appointed by government ministers

• Public utilities, steel, defense products, oil

• Are inefficiently run and corrupt

• State Corporatism

The Legislature

• Bicameral legislature called National Assembly

• Representatives and senators serve 4 year renewable terms – elections held week before presidential election

• The senate

• 109 – 3 from 36 states and 1 from Abuja – by popular vote

• House of Representatives

• 360 members – single member districts by plurality votes

• Has one of lowest female representation in legislature in the world

• Under military governments had almost no power

• Under civilian control only a bit better

• 1999 President of Senate and Speaker of House removed for perjury and forgery

• 2000 Senate president removed for kickbacks

• 2011 Speaker of House investigated from misappropriating $140 million

The Judiciary

• Early on had a lot of autonomy

• _{Combined British common law with traditional law like sharia in}

north

• _{Military rule ravaged court system - under minded by military}

decrees that nullified court decisions

• _{Generals set up quasi-judicial tribunals} • _{Judicial review was suspended}

• _{President’s cronies were appointed as judges}

• _{Today judges are not well versed in law and render decisions that}

are manipulated by the government

• _{Are charged with interpreting laws in accordance with the}

Constitution, so judicial review in theory exists

• _{Courts are at state and federal levels – Supreme Court is highest} • _{Complicated by sharia courts that exist side by side with courts}

based on British model

• _{Islamic sharia courts – function in 12 predominantly Muslim}

The Military

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Is strong force behind policymaking in Nigeria

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By becoming so active in political affairs, lost

credibility as temporary, objective organization that

keeps order and brings stability

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1966 began distinction between military in barracks

and military in government

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But is one of few institutions in country that is truly

national in character

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Nigeria’s best and brightest have made their way

Section Five: Public Policy

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Years of military rule created top down policymaking

process – power concentrated in presidency

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Senior government officials are supported by broader

base of loyal junior officials creating loyalty pyramid

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State control of resources means those in pyramid get

Economic Issues

• Oil revenues have disappeared into hands of government officials

• 2001 federal government asked supreme court to allow them to collect oil revenues and pool them in “federal account” –appeared to be

revenue sharing but south protested because felt was way for N. to take away the S. profits

• Oil – Source of Strength or Weakness

• Nigeria is a rentier state

• State’s main role is controlling nation’s revenues and spending these “rents”

• People respond with rent seeking behavior through prebendalism

• Most in Nigeria live on informal economy

• 1970s oil gave it great deal of international leverage

• But over relies on oil

• Oil is being stolen at record rates

• State run Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation –accountable to no one

• Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) – wants more oil money to go to people in Delta states – chose violence like kidnapping, siphoned oil illegally, etc.

Structural Adjustment

• Nigeria turned to international organizations for help

• 1985 developed economic structural adjustment program with support of World Bank and IMF

• Parastatals were numerous, private economic sector has not grown a lot

• National debt huge problem

Reactions to Global Economic Crisis of 2008

• Hasn’t suffered much because banking system was improved under Obasanjo

• 2005 Central Bank of Nigeria raised banks’ capital requirements so number of banks dropped from 89 to 24 by the end of the

year

• But decrease in price of oil created great damage – including need to devalue the naira

• Nigerian stock exchange when into steep decline

Social Welfare

• Social welfare has suffered with economic decline

• Deterioration in quality and quantity of social services since 1986

• Life expectancy barely above 40 years old, infant mortality over 80 deaths per 1,000 live births, poor basic education, no social security system

• 70% live on less than $1 a day and 92% on less than $2 a day

• Reform programs emphasizing reduction of state expenditures forced cutbacks

• Nigeria poorly meets basic needs, failed to develop national social security system

• Gaps filled by family-based networks of mutual aid

• Few Nigerians have access to formal sector jobs

• Nigeria on verge of AIDS epidemic

Women

• Land use Act of 1978 all land is owned by the government, land tenure still governed by traditional practice which is patriarchal

• Although women have traditionally dominated agricultural production they are generally prevented from owning land

• Women are grossly underrepresented in all levels of government

Federal Character

• Is when ethnic quotas in government hiring practices are used

• Negative effect of federalism is bloating and corruption within bureaucracy

• As states vie for money see themselves as in competition with other ethnic groups

• S. feels federalism will only exist when central government devolves power

• N. does not support federalism because they do not have many resources

Regional and Global Economic Ties

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Major actor in creation of ECOWAS in 1975

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Largest contributor of troops to W. African

peacekeeping force of ECOWAS

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Global influence peaked in 1970s at height of the oil

boom

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Is dependent on W. technology and expertise

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Remains visible and influential member of OPEC

Democratization

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Some checks and balances between government

branches

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Some independent decisions in the courts

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Revival of civil society

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Independent media

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Peaceful succession of power

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Improving freedom house scores to partly free

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Still setbacks

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Democracy Index still characterizes them as

authoritarian

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Quest for democracy is fragile – characterized by

Terrorism

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Boko Haram – founded 2002

• Islamic extremist Sunni muslim group based in NE Nigeria

• Advocated strict interpretation of Sharia law

• Wants an Islamic state in Nigeria

• Also active in Chad, Niger, n. Cameroon

• Led by Abubaker Shekau

• Allied with Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)

• Since beginning violence in 2009 has killed

20,000 and displaced 2.3 million from there homes

• Governement has established a state of emergency beginning in 2012