Tax Rate Uncertainty and Investment Behavior

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A joint Initiative of Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität and Ifo Institute for Economic Research

Working Papers

September 2001

CESifo

Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute for Economic Research

Poschingerstr. 5, 81679 Munich, Germany

Phone: +49 (89) 9224-1410 - Fax: +49 (89) 9224-1409

e-mail: office@CESifo.de

ISSN 1617-9595

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An electronic version of the paper may be downloaded

• from the SSRN website: www.SSRN.com

• from the CESifo website: www.CESifo.de

TAX RATE UNCERTAINTY AND

INVESTMENT BEHAVIOR

Rainer Niemann

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CESifo

Working Paper No. 557

September 2001

TAX RATE UNCERTAINTY AND

INVESTMENT BEHAVIOR

Abstract

This paper deals with the effects of tax rate uncertainty on

risk-neutral and risk-averse investment behavior. We analyze effects

of stochastic tax rates on both real and financial investment. It

emerges that under risk neutrality as well as under risk aversion,

increased tax rate uncertainty has an ambiguous impact on

investment behavior, depending on the investor’s utility function

and the investment project’s structure of cash flows and

depreciation deductions. The popular view that tax policy

uncertainty depresses real investment is rejected. Tax neutrality in

the light of tax policy uncertainty is defined more precisely.

Neutrality results for the Johansson-Samuelson tax and the cash

flow tax can be widely confirmed for tax rate uncertainty.

JEL Classification: G31, H25, H21.

Rainer Niemann

University of Tübingen

Department of Economics

Mohlstr. 36

72074 Tübingen

Germany

Rainer.niemann@uni-tuebingen.de

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