Source all charts : JLL Research
Pulse Spring 2014The Belgian Logistics Market - Quarterly Update
Take-up in Q2 2014 increased by 35% y-o-y to 137,800
sq.m. Year-to-date take-up amounts to 239,400 sq.m., up
19% y-o-y again boosted by local administrations.
Vacancy slightly increased compared to Q1 2014 to 10.6%
due to speculative completions and large offices vacated.
Prime rents were unchanged at €285 / sq.m. / year.
Investment volume in Belgium came in 18.5% higher than
a year ago thanks to huge office deals.
Prime office yields tighten further in CBD location, to
5.75%
Office market report Brussels
On Point
2nd quarter 2014
- 2 - On Point • Brussels Office Market • Q2 2014 www.jll.be
Source all charts : JLL Research
Foreword
2011 2012 2013 H1 2014
Take-up (cumulative) (000 sq. m.) 350 423 331 239.4
Take-up (cumulative) (No of Deals) 350 383 355 192
Stock (Mio sq. m.) 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.4
Completions (cumulative) (000 sq. m.) 111 85 223 47
Vacancy (000 sq. m.) 1,458 1,360 1,351 1,411
Vacancy Rate (%) 11.1 10.4 10.1 10.6
Prime Rent (€/sq. m./pa) 300 285 285 285
Top Quartile Rent (€/sq. m./pa) 222 219 210 213
Weighted Average Rent (€/sq. m./pa) 171 172 169 168
Total Investment Volume in BE
(cumula-tive) (bn €) (*) 1.85 2.20 2.23 1.481
Offices Investment Volume in BE
(cumu-lative) (bn €) (*) 1.02 0.85 1.25 1.031
Prime Yield Band (%) 6.00-6.50 6.00-6.50 5.80-6.50 5.75-6.50
H2 2014 (**) 2015 (**) 2016 (**)
Future Supply, Speculative (000 sq. m.) 37.4 76.7 57.0
Future Supply, Non Speculative (000 sq. m.) 20.3 69.1 168.4
Total 57.7 145.8 225.4
Key statistics – H1 2014
As already announced in our Q1 comments,the Brussels Office Market was boosted by the Administrations (Actiris, Flemish Community, European Commission) during the 1st semester of 2014.
This trend will probably continue during the 2nd semester, with a positive effect on the overall take-up.
In the meanwhile, Grade A office space will continue to be scarce in the CBD, due to active take-up in this segment of the market and due to less speculative construction.
Erik Verbruggen - Head of Office Agency Belgium
(*) Investment volume includes investment, owner occupier and redevelopment acquisitions; excludes land sales. Data as of 30/06/2014. (**) Under construction and projects with permit. Projects with no permit, except if prelet, on 30/06/2014 excluded.
Source all charts : JLL Research Solid take-up growth in Q2
The volume of leasing activity increased by 35.4% year-on-year to 137,800 sq.m., 36% more than in Q1 2014. Year-to-date volume therefore came in at 239,400 sq.m., 19.3% more than a year ago.
Local administrations confirm their return on the market
The recovery of take-up after a weak 2013 is primarily the result of the return of local administrations to the market with large-size deals. In Q2 the Flemish Community pre-let the Meander project in the North district. This 50,000 sq.m. building is located on the Tour & Taxis site situated along the canal, and will neighbour the brand new Brussels Environment building. As a result of this huge – and long awaited – transaction, the proportion of the Local administrations exceeds Corporates for the first time since 2003, at 48% for the former vs. 45% for the latter. Noticeably, all of the recent deals by administrations are replacement demand illustrating the needs of administrations to move to larger energy-efficient buildings instead of several medium size old properties.
Corporate activity has not improved much compared to Q1: only 50,800 sq.m. was taken up vs. 57,000 sq.m. 3 months ago. The largest transactions were the acquisition by an international non-profit organisation of the Arbre Bénit (11,000 sq.m.) in the Louise district, the acquisition by Mediagenix of 5,800 sq.m in the Periphery and the letting to Spadel of 1,990 sq.m. in the Decentralised. The European Commission’s Training Center prelet Cofinimmo’s refurbished Livingstone II building (15,300 sq.m.) in the Leopold district, this being the first transaction by European institutions in 2014.
North district recovers
The largest recent transactions by Local administrations (Actiris in Q1, Flemish Community and INASTI / RSVZ in Q2) boosted occupier activity in the North district. In H1 it represented 39.6% of the take-up, vs. 14% on average over the last 10 years. The Leopold district follows with 15% (down compared to 63% a year ago, an exceptionally high level thanks to 3 large deals) and the Decentralised ranks third with 13%.
Letting Market
0 100.000 200.000 300.000 400.000 500.000 600.000 700.000 800.000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 H1 2014 Decentralised Leopold Louise North Pentagon Periphery SouthTAKE-UP BY DISTRICT (SQM) North district boosted by mega deals
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 H1 14 Belgian Adm EU International Adm Corporates
TAKE-UP BY BUSINESS SECTOR (SQM) Local administrations outperform Corporates
The recovery of corporate letting
activity has still to materialise
- 4 - On Point • Brussels Office Market • Q2 2014 www.jll.be
Source all charts : JLL Research
Completions and move to new buildings pushed vacancy higher
A few medium to large size buildings became available in Q2 2014, some after having been renovated. As a result, the vacant volume in Brussels increased by 41,000 sq.m. and the vacancy rate increased to 10.6% vs. 10.3% 3 months ago. Total vacant space in Brussels came in at 1,411,000 sq.m.
Vacancy in the CBD districts was 6.2%, up vs. 5.9% 3 months ago.
The most substantial increase was in the North district, with the Green Island A (c. 19,000 sq.m. vacated by KBC Bank) and the Botanic Tower (c. 24,000 sq.m. vacated by the Federal Police that moved to the Belair in the Pentagon district), offset by the letting of the UpSite 35 (10,000 sq.m.). As a result the vacancy rate increased to 9.3% vs. 7.4% in Q1 2014.
In the Leopold district, the vacancy rate increased to 5.5% vs. 5.2% because of the completion of the renovation of the Da Vinci (7,635 sq.m. Avenue de Cortenbergh) and limited letting activity.
In the Louise district, the vacancy rate is roughly unchanged at 12.5%, the completion of the E-Lite (4,287 sq.m. still vacant) being offset by the acquisition of the Arbre Bénit building and some conversions of obsolete buildings.
The situation is different in the Pentagon where there was no completion and robust letting activity: vacancy decreased by 14,400 sq.m. and the vacancy rate declined by 70 bps to 3.6%, the lowest since Q4 2007.
Outside the CBD, the vacancy rate increased by 30 bps as well to 18.3%, with 15.2% vacant in the Decentralised (+40 bps) and 22% (+20 bps, an all-time high) in the Periphery. The completion of the renovation of Befimmo’s Triomphe I building (10,800 sq.m.) and the move to the North district of Electrabel, exiting the Ariane Square (11,000 sq.m. vacant), largely explain the deterioration in the Decentralised. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q2 12 Q4 12 Q2 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14
Total BXL Market CBD Outside CBD
VACANCY RATE CBD & OUTSIDE CBD
Vacancy rate outside CBD not far from peak
www.jll.be
Source all charts : JLL Research
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 H2 14e 2016e Completions Future Compl. Spec. Future Compl. Non Spec.
COMPLETION AND PIPELINE
Source all charts : JLL Research More speculative completions in 2015
A total of 47,000 sq.m. was completed in the first semester, the most recent being the Brederode 1B (13,400 sq.m. in the Pentagon, occupied by Linklaters) and the E-Lite (6,800 sq.m. in the Louise district, partly occupied by VW Bank and Knight Frank). As a result and deducting stock removals for conversions, the existing stock in the Greater Brussels amounts to 13,359,000 sq.m. Completions in the second semester are limited: 58,000 sq.m. are expected, of which 37,400 sq.m. is speculative.
Next year will see more speculative completions, we expect 76,700 sq.m. to be delivered without predefined tenant. 73% is located in the CBD. Non speculative completions amount to 69,000 sq.m., of which 56,000 sq.m. in the Leopold district (Europa building, new HQ of the European Council).
DISTRICT BUILDING NAME TYPE sq. m. OFFICE PLANNING
PENT DE LIGNE Ref 30,000 Q1 2017
LEOP BELLIARD 40 New 17,500 Q1 2017
LEOP MERODE Ref 12,800 Q4 2014
LEOP BLACK PEARL New 11,000 Q4 2014
PENT TREURENBERG New 9,600 Q2 2015
PENT RAC 2 Ref 9,000 Q3 2014
LEOP REGENT 35 New 7,300 Q2 2014
BELLIARD 40 - LEOPOLD DISTRICT ARCHITECT: ART & BUILD / PIERRE LALLEMAND
OWNER: COFINIMMO COMPLETION: Q1 2017
- 6 - On Point • Brussels Office Market • Q2 2014 www.jll.be
Source all charts : JLL Research
- 6 - On Point • Brussels Office Market • Q1 2014
Stability of prime rents, top quartile and weighted average show no sign of recovery, nor of deterioration
Prime rents remained unchanged at € 285/ sq.m. / year, this level being achievable in the Leopold district. In the Pentagon prime rents are € 235/ sq.m / y, in the Louise district € 230/ sq.m. / y, in the North and the Decentralised € 185/ sq.m. / y and in the Periphery € 165/ sq.m. / y. Substantial discounts to these prices are applicable to second hand buildings.
Top quartile rents (TQR) did not materially changed in Q2 2014 after the deterioration last year: for the total market they increased by 1% q-o-q to € 213/ sq.m./y, however compared to a year ago it is still 3% below. In the Pentagon TQR declined by 1% q-o-q to € 206/ sq.m. / y, in the Leopold district they tightened by 1% to € 251/ sq.m. / y, in the Louise district they were flat at € 227/ sq.m. / y, in the Decentralised and the Periphery they were roughly unchanged at respectively € 173/ sq.m. / y and € 151/ sq.m. / y.
Weighted average rents in Brussels also hardly changed, with an increase by 1% q-o-q to € 168/ sq.m. /year for the total market. Noticeably, weighted average rents in the Leopold district declined by 3% q-o-q to € 199.3/ sq.m. / y because of recent large size transactions closed well below prime rents. 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 310 330 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 14Q2 14
Pent South North Leop
Louise Dece Peri PRIME FACE RENT BY DISTRICT From € 285 in Leopold to € 165 in the Periphery
The Brussels office market
remains tenant-favourable
100 150 200 250 300 350 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 14 Q2 14 Prime Rent Top Quartile Rent Weighted Average RentEVOLUTION OF FACE RENTS BRUSSELS Decline of top quartile and weighted average rent
Source all charts : JLL Research Sharp rise of investment volume in Q2
Total investment volume in Q2 2014 increased by 18.5% year-on-year to € 1,203 Mio, led by offices which jumped by 43.5%. In the first semester, the total investment volume came in at € 1,482 Mio, 14% higher than a year ago. Based on the transactions currently under negotiation in every segment, investment volume in 2014 may be the highest since 2008 and trend to € 3 bn.
Offices: € 1,051 Mio
Investors’ appetite for core office properties was again confirmed with the acquisition by the Danish pension fund ATP, in JV with AXA that took 10% of the deal, of the North Galaxy in the North district. This 105,000 sq.m. building consists of two towers, leased by the Federal Public Administration of Finances until 2031, was sold by Cofinimmo for € 475 Mio. This is the largest office deal ever in Belgium’s history. In the Louise district, GLL acquired the Platinum for close to € 91 Mio. This multi-let fully refurbished building totals 23,700 sq.m. and was sold at a yield below 6%. Year-to-date, volume amounted to € 1,051 Mio, 34.6% more than a year ago. 78% of the transactions were in Brussels, totalling € 821 Mio, an increase of 28.5% year-on-year.
The average deal size in Brussels (excluding owner-occupation and redevelopment transactions) increased in Brussels. In H1
2014, it was € 79.7 Mio vs. € 25.7 Mio over the last five years and vs. € 29.4 Mio over the last 10 years.
There were 20 deals during the first half, one more compared to a year ago and a five year average of 18 for a first semester.
87.4% of the deals in Brussels year-to-date were investment, 6.8% owner-occupation and the remainder redevelopments. In Belgium as a whole, 89.5% of the office deals were investments, 6% owner-occupier and 4.5% redevelopment deals.
Retail: € 140 Mio
Volumes year-to-date in Belgium are 49% below H1 2013. At this stage there have been few deals and have been limited in size. The average size of deals was only € 6.8 Mio compared to € 16 Mio in H1 2013.
Industrial: € 126 Mio
Investment activity in the industrial segment was broadly in line with previous years with volume of € 54 Mio compared to € 78 Mio in Q1 and € 108 Mio in Q2 2013. Year-to-date, investment volume was € 126 Mio, down 10.9% year-on-year. 63% of the volume was for logistics properties, 37% for semi-industrial. All of the transactions were realised in Flanders.
Investment Market Belgium
Corporate 2% Other4% Institution 54% Private 12% REITs 11% Developers 1% Pooled Funds 11% Propco's 5%
INVESTMENT VOLUME BY SOURCE – BELGIUM – 2013 + Majority of Offices deals
0 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 H1 14 Office Warehousing Retail Retirement Homes Other
TOTAL INVESTMENT VOLUME BY SECTOR BELGIUM
- 8 - On Point • Brussels Office Market • Q2 2014 www.jll.be
Source all charts : JLL Research
“The North Galaxy and Platinum transactions confirm the growing appetite for large volume office transactions”
Jean-Philip Vroninks
Head of Capital Markets BeLux
Diversification of investors origin
The investors’ origin tends to be more diversified. Following the acquisition of 90% of the North Galaxy, Danish investors contributed to 28.8% of the investment volume in H1 2014. Noticeably, this is the first investment of Denmark in Belgium since 2003. Belgian investors, however, retain by far the majority of the deals with 50.8% of the volume in H1 2014. The German investors contributed to 7.8% of the volume in H1 and French investors contributed to 6.4%. At this stage, there is limited direct activity by Middle East investors, however Asian sovereign wealth funds from China, Korea or Singapore as well as Canadian pension funds demonstrate interest for prime properties in Brussels.
Institutional investors such as pension funds and insurers are active and investing in large lot sizes. In H1 2014 they contributed to 51% of the volume in 8 deals. The average deal size of institutional investors was € 99 Mio in H1 2014, way higher than the five year annual average of € 49 Mio. Private investors rank second with 12% of the volume but the average deal size was € 9 Mio in H1 2014 and € 11 Mio in the last five years. REITs, also active with 11%, have average deal size of € 16.9 Mio in H1 and € 20 Mio over the last five years. Pooled funds (11% of the volume) invest in larger deals than REITs at € 31 Mio in H1 2014 and € 25 Mio over the last five years.
PLATINUM - LOUISE DISTRICT SELLER: ABERDEEN
Source all charts : JLL Research 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Q4 05 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410 Q211 Q411 Q212 Q412 Q213 Q413 Q114 Q214 10 year Bond CBD average Non CBD average
PRIME OFFICE YIELDS (6/9 YEAR LEASES) VS. BOND YIELD
Offices trade at substantial premium to government bonds Prime yields under further pressure in the CBD
Prime office yields in Brussels with standard 6/9 year leases are under further downward pressure in the CBD. In the Leopold district prime yields are 5.75% (was 5.8% in Q1) and prime properties in the Louise and Pentagon districts trade at 5.9% (vs. 6.0% 3 months ago). In the North district yields also trend stronger at 6% vs. 6.25%. Outside the CBD, prime yields in the Decentralised Area and the Periphery remain high, at 7.50% and 8%, reflecting the higher inherent risk . Properties located in the CBD, having a long term lease (> 9 years) and an “investment grade” tenant, trade at higher prices than half a year ago with yields of 5% - or below – vs. 5.25% previously.
Yields for secondary assets are clearly much higher, value-added investments deals achieving yields well above 8%. This has started attracting opportunistic investors provided that the occupancy rate of the asset is at a reasonable level.
A good example of an opportunistic transaction is the Pegasus Park for which an agreement in
principle on a sale to ARES was found in early July. The acquisition price is approximately € 83.4 Mio at a net initial yield above 10%.
Compared to 10 year government bonds, real estate offers a substantial yield premium. At the end of June 2014, the yield gap between 10 year Belgian OLO yield and prime property yield was 4.05%.
Brussels is cheap compared to other European cities
Prices for prime office properties in the major European capital cities have increased substantially over the last 24 months. In London West-End, prime yields have reached the unprecedented low of 3.75% in Q1 2014, in Paris prime yields returned to pre-crisis levels of 4.25%, as well as in Berlin and Frankfurt to 4.6%. Brussels offers an appreciable yield premium compared to these core cities and can therefore be an attractive alternative for international investors. 5,5 6,0 6,5 7,0 7,5 8,0 8,5 Q4 05 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410 Q411 Q212 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214
Pentagon North Leopold
Louise Decentralised Periphery
PRIME OFFICE YIELDS (6/9 YEAR LEASES) BY DISTRICT Yields down in all CBD locations
- 10 - On Point • Brussels Office Market • Q2 2014 www.jll.be
Source all charts : JLL Research
Take-up
cumulative Stock Vacancy Rate Prime Rent
Top Quartile Rent Weighted Average Rent Speculative Pipeline H2 2014e 2015e ‘000 sq. m. Mio sq. m. % €/sq. m./year ‘000 sq. m. ‘000 sq. m. Pentagon 13.2 2.3 3.6 235 206 193 13.6 27.4 South District 1.1 0.5 3.8 195 0 0 North District 94.8 1.7 9.3 185 0 0 Leopold District 35.6 3.4 5.5 285 251 199 23.8 20.5 Louise District 24.8 0.7 12.5 230 227 177 0 0 Decentralised Area 32.2 2.6 15.2 185 172 140 0 0 Periphery 37.7 2.2 22.0 165 151 130 0 28.8 Total 239.4 13.4 10.6 285 213 168 37.4 76.7
Letting transactions – H1 2014
YEAR QTR DISTRICT Operation BUILDINGNAME AGE AREA TENANT
2014 2 NORTH Preletting MEANDER PNP 50,000 VLAAMSE GEMEENSCHAP
2014 1 NORTH Preletting ASTRO TOWER PWP 32,000 ACTIRIS
2014 2 LEOPOLD Preletting LIVINGSTONE II UR 15,300 EU COMMISSION
2014 2 LOUISE Acquisition ARBRE BENIT Modern 11,000 PROFIT ORGANISATIONINTERNATIONAL NON
2014 2 NORTH Acquisition UPSITE 35 New 10,000 INASTI / RSVZ
2014 1 DECE NO Letting ATLANTIS New 7,200 B-BRIDGE
2014 2 PENTAGON Letting BOTANIC CENTER Old 6,000 BRUXELLES FORMATION
2014 1 LOUISE Acquisition TRIO New 5,200 CITYDEV
2014 1 PERI NO Acquisition STATIONSTRAAT (GR. BIJGAARDEN) PWP 3,353 OPEN TOURS
2014 1 NORTH Letting ALBERT II - ZENITH BUILDING New 2,500 INFRAX
Source all charts : JLL Research
Letting transactions – H1 2014
Key figures by district - H1 2014
Year Qtr District Property (EUR Mio)Price est. Seller Buyer
2014 2 NORTH NORTH GALAXY 475 Cofinimmo ATP / AXA
2014 2 LOUISE PLATINUM - AVENUE LOUISE 91 Aberdeen GLL
2014 2 DECENTRALISED HQ CARREFOUR BELGIUM 47 Redevco Financière Techeyné
2014 1 NORTH UPSITE 36 27 PMV Allianz
2014 2 DECENTRALISED VERIDIS / MARSH 23 Banimmo L’Intégrale
2014 2 LEOPOLD BELL’ARTS 22 IVG Morabanc
2014 2 LEOPOLD MONTOYER 14 13 Cofinimmo NEIF
2014 1 DECENTRALISED Place Communale d’Auderghem 11 AG real Estate (certificate) Private
2014 1 LOUISE LOUISE 66 11 Leasinvest Immo Graanmark
2014 1 Decentralised GENEVE 10 9 Aberdeen Private
- 12 - On Point • Brussels Office Market • Q2 2014 www.jll.be
Source all charts : JLL Research
Source all charts : JLL Research
Map of the Brussels office market
TAKE-UP
Take-Up – New: Represents take-up of floorspace in new or substantially refurbished buildings of less than five years since completion.
Take-Up – Modern: Represents take-up of floorspace built or renovated between 5-15 years ago.
Take-up – Old: Represents take-up of floorspace built more than 15 years ago and not renovated.
RENT
Prime Office Rent represents the top open-market rent that could be expected for a notional office unit of the highest quality and specification in the best location in a market, as at the survey date (normally at the end of each quarter period). The rent quoted normally reflects prime units of over 500 sq. m. of lettable floorspace, which excludes rents that represent a premium level paid for a small quantity of space.
Top Quartile Office Rent represents the average mean value of the top (25 %) quartile of all known face rents achieved on leasing transactions completed within a market during the survey period (normally calculated annually, or quarterly on a 12 monthly rolling basis). It excludes any unrepresentative deals.
Weighted Average Rent represents the average mean value of all known face rents achieved on leasing transactions completed within a market during the survey period weighted with the floorspace (normally calculated annually, or quarterly on a 12 month rolling basis). It excludes any unrepresentative deals.
PRIME YIELD
Represents the best (i.e. lowest) “rack-rented” yield estimated to be achievable for a notional office property of the highest quality and specification in the best location in a market, as at the survey date (normally at the end of each quarter period). The property should be let at the prevailing market rent to a first class tenant with an occupational lease that is standard for the local market.
The prime initial net yield is quoted, i.e., the initial net income at the date of purchase, expressed as a percentage of the total purchase price, which includes acquisition costs and transfer taxes.
VACANCY
Vacancy represents completed floorspace offered on the open market for leasing or sale, vacant for immediate occupation on the survey date (normally at the end of each quarter period), within a market. It includes all vacant accommodation irrespective of the quality of office space or the terms on which it is offered.
Vacancy excludes “obsolete” or “mothballed” office property, i.e. floorspace held vacant and not being offered for letting, usually pending redevelopment or major refurbishment. Vacancy Rate
The Vacancy Rate represents immediately vacant office floorspace in all completed buildings within a market as at the survey date (normally at the end of each quarter period), expressed as a percentage of the total stock.
STOCK
Stock represents the total amount of completed office space in buildings mainly used for office purposes within a market that is capable of occupation regardless of the type of ownership or type of building quality, as at the survey (normally at the end of each quarter period).
COMPLETIONS
Completions represent floor-space completed during the survey period (normally annually). Completions include new development and refurbished accommodation, speculative developments, pre-let floor space and space for owner-occupation
- 14 - On Point • Brussels Office Market • Q2 2014 www.jll.be
Source all charts : JLL Research
Avenue Marnixlaan, 23 b1
B – 1000 Bruxelles Brussel
T 32 (0) 2 550 25 25
F 32 (0) 2 550 26 26
Jan Van Gentstraat 1 bus 402
B – 2000 Antwerpen
T 32 (0) 3 232 39 30
F 32 (0) 3 233 76 85
VINCENT H. QUERTON
INTERNATIONAL DIRECTOR - CEO BENELUX +32 (0) 2 550 25 25
ERIK VERBRUGGEN (*)
HEAD OF OFFICE AGENCY - BELGIUM +32 (0) 2 550 25 28
Erik.Verbruggen@eu.jll.com
JEAN-PHILIP VRONINKS (*)
HEAD OF CAPITAL MARKETS - BELUX +32 (0) 2 550 26 64
Jean-Philip.Vroninks@eu.jll.com
PIERRE-PAUL VERELST HEAD OF RESEARCH - BELUX +32 (0) 2 550 25 04
Pierre-Paul.Verelst@eu.jll.com
(*) sprl / bvba
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