Helping to shape tomorrow. The 2011 Census of Population and Housing in England and Wales

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CM 7513 PRICE £26.60

Helping to shape tomorrow

The 2011 Census of Population

and Housing in England and Wales

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Cabinet Ofﬁce

Helping to shape tomorrow

The 2011 Census of Population and Housing in England and Wales

Presented to Parliament by the Minister to the Cabinet Ofﬁce, by Command of Her Majesty Laid before the National Assembly for Wales by the Minister for Finance and Public Service Delivery December 2008

Cm 7513 Price £26.60

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ISBN:9780101751322

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Preface

Rt Hon Liam Byrne, MP, Minister for the Cabinet Ofﬁce and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster

For over two hundred years, the country has relied on the Census to underpin national and local decision making.

Government, local authorities, the health service, the education and academic community, commercial business, professional organisations and the public at large all need reliable information on the number and characteristics of people and households if they are to conduct many of their activities effectively and plan for the future. This need is currently best met by conducting a census every ten years covering the whole of the population, and by updating the population estimates each year using the preceding census as a base.

This White Paper sets out the newly created independent UK Statistics Authority’s

proposals for the 2011 Census in England and Wales, and is being published now because the UK Government and the Welsh Assembly Government believe that there should be sufﬁcient time for public discussion of proposals that will affect every household and person in the country.

The design for the new Census builds upon on the experience gained by ONS from previous censuses generally and, in particular, from the lessons learned from the 2001 Census, and takes account of the several formal recommendations from the Treasury Select Committee, the Public Accounts Committee and the former Statistics Commission.

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But most importantly the Census is dependent on the willing cooperation and

participation of the general public on whose behalf the information that is collected is destined to serve. The 2011 Census is, therefore, very much counting on the population of England and Wales to help shape tomorrow.

MP, Minister for the Cabinet Ofﬁce and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster

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Foreword

Sir Michael Scholar, Chair, UK Statistics Authority

The Census provides a once-in-a decade opportunity to get an accurate, comprehensive and consistent picture of the most valuable resource of England and Wales – its

population – and a rich array of facts about it. The results are invaluable for both national and local policy formation, planning and the effective targeting of resources. The Census provides the only source of directly comparable statistics for both small areas and minority population groups, which are generally consistent across England and Wales and the rest of the United Kingdom. It is used as a reference base for many statistical series such as population estimates and projections and sample surveys.

The 2011 Census for England and Wales – the proposals for which are set out in this White Paper – will be the ﬁrst since 1831 not carried out under the auspices of the Registrar General. With the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 having taken effect on 1 April 2008, the authority for conducting the decennial census now rests with the UK Statistics Authority, and, on its behalf, I am very pleased to submit the proposals to Parliament through the Minister responsible for the Ofﬁce for National Statistics (ONS) matters.

The new Act has enabled a number of statistical developments to be utilised by ONS that have helped to shape the arrangements proposed for the 2011 Census. In particular, the greater facility to share data has enabled the development of an address register specifically for the purposes of managing the effective delivery of census questionnaires to every household and monitoring the movement of the forms in the field using a new form-tracking system. This will enable ONS to maintain a much tighter control of the field

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operation than hitherto and to report progress to field managers in real time. This work is being taken forward against the backdrop of the Treasury Committee’s recommendations that the Government should consult with the UK Statistics Authority and others to remove any outstanding obstacles to the production of an address register, and ONS has successfully secured the agreement of all the main address list providers to an interim information sharing initiative. We hope that this agreement and the procedures we have developed will be both highly productive and effective. In addition, sharing information from, and with, local authorities will ensure that such an address list is fit for purpose and that user confidence in the coverage and accuracy of the resulting outputs will be enhanced.

The data sharing provisions contained in the Statistics and Registration Service Act will also allow greater use to be made of the rich array of statistical data produced from the Census. It is, however, important to stress that this must and will always be, subject to the strictest controls to ensure the conﬁdentiality of personal information supplied, and that the information is used only for the purposes for which it is provided.

In planning the design for the 2011 Census and in seeking the means to improve coverage and quality, the National Statistician and ofﬁcials in ONS have consulted widely with users and other stakeholders, and have developed working partnerships with local authorities, contracted suppliers and the devolved administrations - and continue to do so. Many of the recommendations that were made following extensive reviews of the 2001 Census by the House of Commons Treasury and Public Accounts Committees, the National Audit Ofﬁce, the former Statistics Commission and other bodies such as the Local Government Association, as well as the outcomes of ONS’s own regular post-census evaluations, have each helped to shape the design of the 2011 Census. The result is that the Census design proposals set out in this White Paper are those that the UK Statistics Authority believes are the best and most cost-effective means of collecting the information that the country requires.

Modern times, however, also demand modern approaches, and whilst a traditional census remains currently the only practicable way of collecting the range of inter-related information required, it also needs to adapt its methodologies to reﬂect both up-to-date technologies and changing public attitudes. Consequently, a number of major changes are proposed in the design for 2011 compared with previous censuses.

t Census forms will be delivered to households by post in the majority of cases.

t There will be the facility to return the completed information online.

t As I have indicated, a central address register is being developed to facilitate improved form delivery and ﬁeld management.

t The recruitment, training and payment of ﬁeld staff will be outsourced to specialist service providers.

t New questions are proposed on: national identity; citizenship; second residence;

language; civil partnership status; and (for non-UK born) date of entry into the UK and length of intended stay.

t All standard outputs will be publicly accessible online, and free of charge, from the National Statistics website.

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The UK Statistics Authority hopes that these proposals will receive as wide an acceptance as possible and that, in particular, Parliament and the National Assembly for Wales will support, in due course, the secondary legislation necessary to enable the Census to be carried out. The Authority will be responsible to Parliament for the successful outcome of the Census and for submitting reports of the results. And it will be answerable to Parliament for any failings or shortcomings. It will be the role of the National Statistician, however, to ensure that the detailed arrangements for the conduct of the Census in the ﬁeld and for the processing, protection and dissemination of the data fully meet the requirements and expectations of users and the public at large.

This White Paper covers the proposals for the Census in England and Wales only, since the Census is a devolved matter and is subject to separate legislative processes and arrangements in both Scotland and Northern Ireland. There, the Registrars General will present similar proposals to their respective legislatures. However, the production of harmonised UK Census statistics to meet the requirements of not only the European Union but also a wide range of domestic users remains of great importance, and to this end the National Statistician and the two Registrars General are co-signatories to an Agreement on the conduct of the 2011 Census in general and, in particular, on the production of consistent outputs. There has been, and continues to be, full discussion and consultation, between the three Census Ofﬁces on all aspects of the planning and execution of the 2011 Census.

The proposals set out in this White Paper refer only to the forthcoming 2011 Census. The document says nothing about the requirements for any future censuses. Nevertheless, the UK Statistics Authority is mindful of the views expressed by the Treasury Select Committee (TSC) and others that 2011 should be the last census to be carried out in its traditional format, and that consideration should be given to the greater use of administrative data sources from which to compile future demographic statistics. ONS will, in due course, review the value and effectiveness of the Census, compared with alternative sources, for producing the sort of statistical information that users require on a wide range of interdependent topics and for small areas and population sub-groups. Whether this can be provided, to the level of quality demanded, solely from administrative registers or sample surveys, or whether there should be a further Census in 2021 to meet such user requirements will, no doubt, be the focus of a future White Paper.

In the meantime, taking any Census is always a big challenge, but one which, for 2011, the UK Statistics Authority and the National Statistician will meet in the knowledge that all the necessary preparation is being done as thoroughly and professionally as possible, building on the experience and expertise of over 200 years of census taking in this country.

Chair of the UK Statistics Authority

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Executive Summary

Introduction – decision on the 2011 Census (Chapter 1)

The Government has decided, in agreement with the UK Statistics Authority, that the next Census of Population should be taken in England and Wales on Sunday 27 March 2011.

Censuses will also be taken on the same day in Scotland and Northern Ireland subject to separate legislative procedures in the Scottish Parliament and the Northern Ireland Assembly. The Census will be the twenty-ﬁrst in a series carried out every 10 years in England and Wales since 1801, except in 1941.

Government, local authorities, the health service, the education and academic community, commercial business, professional organisations and the public at large all need reliable information on the number and characteristics of people and households if they are to conduct many of their activities effectively. This need is currently best met by conducting a census every ten years covering the whole of the population, and by updating the population estimates each year benchmarked on the preceding Census.

Taking account of the many comments, evaluations and recommendations arising from the 2001 Census, the design of the 2011 Census is based on a number of key strategic aims:

t to give the highest priority to getting the national and local population counts right t to maximise overall response and minimise differences in response rates in speciﬁc

areas and among particular population sub-groups

t to build effective partnerships with other organisations, particularly local authorities, in planning and executing the ﬁeld operation

t to provide high quality, value-for-money, ﬁt-for purpose statistics that meet user needs and which are as consistent, comparable and accessible across the UK as is possible t to protect, and be seen to protect, conﬁdential personal census information

Summary of the key 2011 Census design features (Chapter 1)

In summary, and subject to the approval of Parliament (and, where appropriate, Welsh Ministers):

t The 2011 Census will cover everyone usually resident in England and Wales on Census night, with a subset of information also collected from visitors present on Census night. Information will also be collected from residents in communal establishments and individuals or households with no usual or physical address

t Forms will primarily be delivered by post (to as many as 95 per cent of households).

Field staff delivery will be focused in areas which are hard to enumerate

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t The public will be able to return completed forms either by post, online, or by doorstep collection; help will be available to anyone who has difﬁculty in completing the Census form

t There will be a slight increase in the number of questions compared with the 2001 Census, but the form has been re-designed to make it easier to complete

t There will be some differences in the questions asked in England and Wales compared to the 2001 Census, (and some further differences compared with the Censuses in Scotland and in Northern Ireland)

t Each question included in the proposals meets a demonstrated need and is suitable for a self-completed form; previous censuses or tests have shown the questions to be generally acceptable to the public

t Signiﬁcant changes from 2001 in the questions proposed are:

– questions on national identity and citizenship

– additional response categories in the ethnicity question – questions on second residences

– a question on language

– the inclusion of civil partnership in the marital status question

– questions on date of entry into the UK and of intended length of stay for in-migrants

t Stringent conﬁdentiality and security procedures will protect the information gathered in the Census and will conform to the requirements of census conﬁdentiality, Data Protection and Freedom of Information legislation

t There will be publicity to convey to the public the purpose and value of the Census and to give assurances about the conﬁdentiality with which information is treated t Initiatives have been put into place to maximise, and measure effectively, the quality

of the information collected; in particular, Census coverage and quality surveys will be carried out to measure the number of people not counted by the Census and the quality of the responses given

t The statistical outputs on the Census will be designed to meet user requirements, and dissemination will be to a pre-arranged timetable

Costs (Chapter 1)

On the basis of present planning assumptions, the total cost of the 2011 Census in England and Wales over the period 2005-2016 is currently estimated to be £482 million.

Provision of £450 million for the cost of the Census has been made up to the period 2011–12. Provision for later years will be subject to future spending reviews.

Consultations and tests (Chapter 2)

The content of the 2011 Census has been driven principally by the demands and requirements of users of census statistics, the evaluation of the 2001 Census, and the advice and guidance of organisations with experience of similar operations, determined

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by extensive consultation, through a structure of formal advisory committees, topic- related working groups and public meetings, and via media such as ONS consultation and information papers, and the Census website.

Government departments were consulted, both on a bilateral basis and collectively through the Heads of Professions of the Government Statistical Service and inter- Departmental Committees, to determine their needs and priorities for topics to be included. Local authorities, the health service, the academic community, the business sector and local communities were similarly consulted through long-standing Census Advisory Groups convened by the National Statistician. Topic experts and methodologists within ONS have also been consulted.

Additional consultation with local authorities has been managed through a Local Authority Liaison Programme which is being developed through a network of Census Regional Champions appointed from among the Regional Returning Officers for each of the nine Government Offices in England and the Returning Officer for Wales.

In Wales, representatives of ONS and the Welsh Assembly Government attended a

meeting of each of the National Assembly Subject Committees during the period October 2006- March 2007 to discuss plans for the Census in Wales.

In addition, there have been formal public consultations supported by a number of national open meetings on particular issues.

The proposals for the Census also take account of the results of a programme of research and testing aimed at better understanding of the public’s comprehension and perception of census-related concepts, and of tests, both small and large-scale, of census question wording, questionnaire design and delivery methods. These have included a major Test carried out in ﬁve local authority areas in May 2007, and encompass a Rehearsal of the Census operation to be conducted in October 2009.

The population base (Chapter 3)

Each household will be given a 2011 Census questionnaire to complete, and the form will contain questions relating to each person usually resident in the household as well as to the household as a whole. Additionally, the form will provide space for the householder to record the number of visitors present at the address on Census night and certain basic demographic characteristics such as age, sex and usual address. However, if any such visitors are normally resident elsewhere in the United Kingdom, they will also be required to supply full information at their usual residence.

Students and boarding school pupils will be regarded as being resident at their term-time address irrespective of where they are present on Census day, thus making the Census consistent with the base for the mid-year population estimates.

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All UK residents will be enumerated at the address where they are resident at the time of the Census; the return for a household will also include anyone normally resident there who happens to be away on Census night, whether elsewhere in the United Kingdom or abroad.

The Census questions (Chapter 3)

The topics proposed for the Census are those that have been shown to be most needed by the major users of census information and for which questions have been devised that can be expected to produce reliable and accurate data. In each case, no other comparable and accessible source of the information is available in combination with other items in the Census.

Consultation on the topic content for the 2011 Census has resulted in a much larger demand for questions than would be possible to accommodate on a Census form that households could reasonably be expected to complete, and consequently a number of difﬁcult decisions have had to be made in assessing the different requirements for information and balancing the needs for change against continuity.

In assessing which topics should be included in the Census, ONS have had to consider a number of criteria. The criteria for evaluating the strength of user requirement for information were that:

t there should be a clearly demonstrated and signiﬁcant need

t the information collected was of major national importance but that data was required for small population groups and/or at detailed geographical levels

t users’ requirements could not adequately be met by information from other sources t there should be a requirement for multivariate analysis (that is the ability to cross-

analyse one variable against other)

t there should be consideration of the ability for comparison with the 2001 Census wherever possible.

In addition there were other factors which ONS needed to take into consideration in assessing the priorities for topics. These were:

t that the inclusion of particular questions should be shown, in tests, to have had no signiﬁcantly adverse effect on the Census as a whole, particularly the level of public response

t that practicable questions could be devised to collect data which are of sufﬁcient quality to meet users’ requirements

t the constraints of size and design imposed by a self-completion questionnaire in respect of respondent burden and accuracy of response

t that the Census should not be used to collect data that would deliberately promote political or sectarian groups or sponsor particular causes

t legal constraints and/or demands imposed by domestic and European legislation

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In summary, the UK Statistics Authority proposes that information on the following topics should be collected in the 2011 Census:

At all properties occupied by households and for all unoccupied household accommodation:

t Address, including the postcode.

For households:

t Number and names of all residents whether present or temporarily absent on Census night

t Tenure of accommodation

t Type of accommodation and whether or not it is self-contained t Type of landlord (for households in rented accommodation) t Number of rooms (and bedrooms*)

t Type of central heating*

t Number of cars and vans owned or available

For residents in households t Name, sex, and date of birth

t Marital status (including civil partnership status*) t Relationship to others within the household t Student status

t Whether or not students live at enumerated address during term time t Usual address one year ago

t Country of birth

t Citizenship (passports held)*

t Month and year of entry into the UK*

t Intended length of stay in the UK*

t National identity* and ethnic group t Religion

t Language*

t Welsh language proﬁciency (in Wales only) t General health

t Long-standing illness or disability t Provision of unpaid personal care

t Educational and vocational qualiﬁcations t Second residence*

t Economic activity in the week before the Census t Time since last employment

t Employment status

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t Supervisor status t Hours worked

t Job title and description of occupation

t Name of employer and nature of employer’s business at place of work (industry) t Workplace address

t Means of travel to work.

For visitors in households t Name, sex, and date of birth

t Usual address (or country of usual residence if a non-UK resident)

For residents in communal establishments

t As for residents in household except for the relationship to others within the household

t Status of persons within the establishment

For communal establishments

t Type of establishment (including age group and population catered for, and management responsibility)

Topics marked* are proposed for inclusion in the Census in England and Wales for the ﬁrst time.

A number of other topics have been considered but are not included in the proposals for the 2011 Census. ONS carefully evaluated all the suggestions submitted. Some topics were rejected at an early stage in planning but many were subjected to both small- and large-scale testing. The Welsh Assembly Government similarly prioritised the cases made to inform the topic content of the Census questionnaire in Wales.

Data collection (Chapter 4)

Experience has shown that it is increasingly difﬁcult to make contact with households, and this has been a major inﬂuence in shaping data collection plans for the 2011 Census.

These difﬁculties can be attributed to: an ageing population; growing numbers of one- person households; changing work patterns; increase in access security control systems; a less compliant society; growing numbers of migrants; and certain groups and communities within the population feeling increasingly disenfranchised.

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The enumeration will be conducted in a way that is primarily designed to achieve completeness of coverage with an efficient use of resources while, at the same time, maintaining the public’s acceptance and confidence in the importance and security of the Census. Although many aspects of the Census will follow well-established and proven methodologies, ONS have introduced changes that will improve the efficiency of the census operation and will provide better help to the public. For example, the use of a postal service provider to facilitate the delivery as well as return of completed forms by post, will help overcome the difficulties of recruiting large numbers of temporary enumerators to deliver forms, and of accessing accommodation protected by security systems. Together with the option of making a return online, this will free-up field staff to be more flexibly deployed, wherever necessary, in order to improve coverage, particularly in metropolitan areas and other places where households are less compliant and/or need more assistance in completing a return.

Address Register

The pre-requisite for a successful post-out strategy is the availability of a comprehensive, high quality Address Register for all areas of England and Wales.In the absence of a single authoritative source of national address information, ONS is developing an address register that meets Census requirements in terms of quality and coverage, and which local authorities can be conﬁdent will effectively underpin Census enumeration and outputs.

Full use will be made of the primary sources of address lists, namely the Royal Mail

Postcode Address File, the Ordnance Survey MasterMap Address Layer 2, and the National Land and Property Gazetteer. ONS has successfully signed up all the address list providers to an information sharing agreement.

Address checks will be carried out in a sample of areas across England and Wales over a six-month period ﬁnishing some six months before the Census. This timeframe will ensure that the Address Register is as up-to-date as possible in time to enable the printing of address on to individualised census forms.

Field force

A labour force of some 30,000 temporary ﬁeld staff will be employed to carry out the Census. There will be a hierarchical management structure to this ﬁeld force, headed by some 100 or more Census Area Managers employed for about a year before the Census and for about four months beyond. Each will be responsible for the enumeration of an area of about 500,000. As in the 2001 Census, Welsh-speaking Managers will be appointed to oversee the enumeration in Wales.

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Form delivery and collection

Post-out will be the means of form delivery in the majority of areas, but the decision on where a Census form will be delivered by ﬁeld staff will be determined by a number of factors which include:

t conﬁdence in the accuracy of the address list in any given area

t the proportion of known, or suspected, multi-occupied properties in the area t concentrations of large households

t the prevalence of communal establishments

The option of two principal response routes will be available to enable the public to complete their census return:

t paper completion and post back, or

t completion (for the ﬁrst time in the UK) using an online questionnaire.

Field staff will undertake follow-up visits at addresses from where ONS is conﬁdent that no response has been received.

Special enumeration procedures

The methodologies developed generally to enumerate households and communal establishments will not be successful for everyone, and it is accepted that additional procedures will have to be adopted for some special populations. These will include people with no settled place of residence, such as Gypsies, those travelling with fairs and persons sleeping rough. In addition there are other identiﬁable groups, dispersed throughout the population, who will require modiﬁed enumeration procedures. These include:

t those unable to understand the census questionnaire, such as non-English speakers (and those who are also non-Welsh speakers in Wales) and people with reading difﬁculties

t those likely to have difﬁculty completing or returning a standard paper questionnaire, including the visually impaired or physically disabled

t those able, but unwilling, to complete a questionnaire

Particular arrangements will be made to enable blind or partially sighted people and non-English speakers/non-Welsh speakers in Wales to make a census return.

In all cases, whether response to the Census is to be by postal return, online, or by doorstep collection, the statutory obligation to make a return will not be discharged until a completed form is received by the Census Office or local field staff. Persons refusing to comply with the statutory requirement to make a census return will be liable to prosecution and a fine. ONS will deploy specially trained field staff to follow-up cases where there has been a clear indication of a householder’s refusal to make a return.

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Arrangements in Wales in respect of the Welsh Language Act (Chapter 4)

ONS will make arrangements to ensure that the requirements of the Welsh Language Act 1993 (as set out in the ONS’s Welsh Language Scheme) are met with respect to all aspects of the Census in Wales. In particular, there is a commitment to recruit members of the ﬁeld force who are bilingual in English and Welsh, especially in areas with higher than average proportions of Welsh speakers, and both a Welsh and English language version of the Census questionnaire will be delivered to each household. Bilingual versions of all publicity and information material will also be available. As noted above, bilingual Census Managers will be appointed to oversee the enumeration in Wales.

Data quality and coverage (Chapter 4)

Quality is at the heart of planning the 2011 Census, and many of the innovations that were trialled in the 2007 Census Test were about improving the quality of census processes and, thus, the data. A Census, by its nature, is designed to cover the whole population, but errors inevitably arise. A good census design will recognise this and take account of them.

Non-response or under-enumeration is the most significant error. While the estimated overall undercoverage in the 2001 Census was small compared with national government surveys, it was significantly greater than in 1991. Of more significance was its variation across population sub-groups and different parts of the country.

In planning for the 2011 Census, the goals are to maximise the overall level of quality of data and to minimise the differences in quality between areas. ONS will develop a strategy for assuring the quality of the 2011 Census database before any release of output. The quality assurance process will compare the Census data against a wide range of sources both during the operation and prior to the release of the full dataset.

The output database itself will be fully adjusted using information collected from a post- enumeration Census Coverage Survey to be conducted immediately subsequent to the ﬁeldwork for the Census itself. In addition, a small, separate Quality Survey will be undertaken after the Census to measure the accuracy of responses to individual questions.

Publicity (Chapter 4)

ONS will, in close co-operation with the Census Ofﬁces in Scotland and Northern Ireland and supported by a dedicated Contact Centre, arrange nationwide and local publicity to explain the purpose and value of the Census, to encourage householders to return completed forms and to ensure that they know when and how to do so, and to give assurances about conﬁdentiality and data security.

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Special assistance will be available to anyone who has difﬁculty in completing the Census questionnaire, particularly through language or inﬁrmity. Field staff speaking both

English and other languages and/or signers will be employed, where possible, supported by translations of a general information leaﬂet in 26 or more of the most prevalent foreign languages available via a dedicated Census Help website. Publicity for, and the enumeration of, the Census in Wales will be conducted bilingually.

Outsourcing (Chapter 4)

ONS is again contracting out a number of services as a major part of ensuring a value- for-money Census in 2011. External suppliers bring with them considerable technical experience and expertise which would otherwise be unavailable to Census takers.

Furthermore, given the ten-year cycle for the Census and the relatively short processing timetable – requiring a large temporary workforce – it is not appropriate for ONS to recruit and train such personnel itself. It would require signiﬁcant additional resource – and burden on the tax payer to manage these in-house.

The activities that are being outsourced cover:

t the recruitment, training and payment of ﬁeld staff

t the delivery of forms and collection of completed returns via a postal service t the capture and coding of census data in electronic format

t the design of questionnaire/form-tracking systems

t the translation, printing and distribution of non-questionnaire material

t the provision of online response facilities for form completion and a contact centre t a publicity campaign

Data processing (Chapter 5)

The Government recognises that the investment of time and resources in a national census is only justiﬁed if the results are made accessible to users speedily and in a clear and usable form. As was also the aim in the 2001 Census, ONS intends that technological developments should be harnessed in the 2011 Census in order to improve the accuracy, timeliness, accessibility and user-friendliness of published output.

In particular, ONS is proposing to introduce two major innovations in the area of data capture and dissemination. Firstly, there will be the opportunity to submit censuses returns online via a secure Internet connection; and secondly there should be free public access to all standard national and local outputs in electronic media from National Statistics online.

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The 2011 Census will be processed in three main phases. Input processing, which comprises two stages: the main data capture and coding stage, and the subsequent

‘downstream’ processing which encompasses a suite of systems to edit and adjust the data so that a fully consistent database can be prepared as the basis for output dissemination; and output processing which comprises the creation of statistically

protected tables and other products from an outputs database, and the dissemination of these products to users.

Coverage assessment and adjustment (Chapter 5)

Ultimately, the success of the Census relies heavily on its accuracy and how well it can estimate the population and its characteristics. The Census will never count every single household and individual. A necessary process of coverage assessment and adjustment is undertaken to provide accurate national and sub national estimates of the population.

In the 2001 Census, this process was called the One Number Census, which adjusted the results of the Census to take account of people who were missed. For 2011, a similar approach will be undertaken but with developments focusing on a number of areas to improve the methodology.

Output dissemination (Chapter 5)

In disseminating the results of the Census much emphasis will be put on responsiveness to users’ requirements on content, format and means of access, and on high standards in the production of statistics. Thus, ONS intends that outputs should be in such a form, and at varying levels of statistical and geographical detail, so to meet the changing requirements of users, subject to the overriding requirement to protect statistical conﬁdentiality. The geographies for such outputs will be created essentially from the same building bricks as in the 2001 Census – the Output Areas.

Conﬁdentiality (Chapter 6)

The importance of achieving maximum coverage in the Census necessitates that public participation should be mandatory. This, in turn puts an obligation on the UK Statistics Authority to ensure that the information, sometimes sensitive information, given in conﬁdence by the public is treated with the strictest conﬁdentiality.

The UK Statistics Authority recognises that the public need to be confident that their personal census records will be held securely. As in previous censuses, assurances will be given to the public that all the information provided will be treated in strictest confidence by the Census Office.

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The information collected in the 2011 Census will be used solely for the production of statistics and research. Usage will comply fully with the Census Act, the Statistics and Registration Service Act and the requirements of data protection and freedom of information legislation. There are legal penalties for the unlawful disclosure of personal information collected in the census.

Privacy and human rights (Chapter 6)

The UK Statistics Authority is entirely satisﬁed that statutory authority to require

information to be provided from each of the questions to be included in the 2011 Census is fully compliant with both the European Convention on Human Rights and the Human Rights Act 1998 in respect to the individual’s right to privacy.

The legislative process (Chapter 7)

The primary legislation that provides for the taking of a Census in England and Wales is the Census Act 1920 as amended by the Census (Amendment) Act 2000. More recently further amendments to the Act – in particular, transferring the authority to take the census from the Registrar General to the Statistics Board (UK Statistics Authority), and the Ministerial responsibility for the Census from HM Treasury to the Cabinet Ofﬁce – have, from the 1 April 2008, been effected by the introduction of the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.

In accordance with section 1 of the Census Act, the Government will prepare a draft Order in Council in respect of the Census in England and Wales, in autumn 2009, for approval by both Houses of Parliament. Under the terms of the Act, the Order in Council will prescribe:

t the date on which the census is to be taken

t the persons by whom, and with respect to whom, the census returns are to be made t the particulars to be stated in the returns

Following the approval of the Census Order, the Minister for the Cabinet Ofﬁce will lay before Parliament (around mid February 2010) Census Regulations which will make detailed provision for the conduct of the Census in England and will contain specimens of the forms to be used. The Regulations require the approval by negative resolution of both Houses. At the same time the Welsh Minister will make separate Regulations covering the Census in Wales in the National Assembly for Wales under powers transferred to Welsh Ministers by virtue of the Transfer of Functions (No. 2) Order 2006.

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Devolution of the Censuses in Scotland and Northern Ireland (Chapter 7)

Separate, devolved legislative arrangements will provide for the Censuses in Scotland and Northern Ireland. UK harmonisation will be achieved through close liaison and co- operation between the three Census Ofﬁces, and through an agreement between the National Statistician and the Registrars General to work together to achieve consistent and comparable Census outputs both to meet users’ requirements to fulﬁl the UK’s international obligations.

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Introduction

1 1

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1 Introduction

“The Census underpins the allocation of billions of pounds in funding for public services, and is the foundation of many economic and social statistics. These in turn inﬂuence policy across government and investment decisions in the commercial sector. And despite growth in new databases in recent years, the Census still offers a source of consistent small-area data that is better than any other. It gives us both a unique insight into the society in which we live and a social benchmark that will be of relevance for many decades to come.

The Census is thus of fundamental importance to policy, good government, the economy and democracy.” David Rhind (Chairman of the former Statistics Commission)¹

The decision on the Census

1.1 The UK Government has decided, in agreement with the UK Statistics Authority, that, subject to appropriate legislative approval, a Census of Population and Housing should be taken in England and Wales on Sunday 27 March 2011.

Censuses will also be taken on the same day in Scotland and Northern Ireland subject to separate legislative procedures in the Scottish Parliament and the Northern Ireland Assembly. The Census will be the twenty-ﬁrst in a series carried out every 10 years in England and Wales since 1801, except in 1941. The last was carried out on 29 April 2001 and was reported on fully by the Registrar General.²

The choice of the date

1.2 The choice of the date for the Census is central to much of the planning that surrounds the event, and directly affects the quality of the data collected. The date of the Census will be set in secondary legislation but needs to be determined well in advance so that all aspects of the Census can be planned accordingly. Although the Census does not have to take place on a speciﬁc day of the week, a Sunday has traditionally been chosen as the most likely time that people will be at home.

The date must be chosen to maximise the number of households present and to ensure minimum interruptions to the delivery and collection of the questionnaires.

In selecting the date a number of factors have had to be taken into consideration:

x maximising number of people present at their usual residence (by, for example, avoiding holiday periods)

x maximising the number of students present at their term-time address x avoiding local elections (when the publicity messages may get confused) x allowing sufﬁcient hours of daylight for ﬁeld work

x avoiding holiday periods in order to maximise recruitment/retention of ﬁeld staff

x harmonisation across the UK

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The role of the Census in meeting the need for information for national and local decision making

1.3 For over two hundred years, the country has relied on the Census to underpin national and local decision making. Some 200 countries world-wide now carry out a regular census under the auspices of the United Nations’ Census

programme.

1.4 Government, local authorities, the health service, the education and academic community, commercial business, professional organisations and the public at large all need reliable information on the number and characteristics of people and households if they are to conduct many of their activities effectively. This need is currently best met by conducting a census every ten years covering the whole of the population, and by updating the population estimates each year benchmarked on the preceding Census.

Shaping Government policy

1.5 In particular, the UK Government and the Welsh Assembly Government need this kind of information to form policy, to plan services for speciﬁc groups of people and, especially, to distribute resources effectively to local and health authorities to enable them to direct resources to where they are needed. The information must be authoritative, accurate and comparable for all parts of the country. Currently, only a census can provide the range of such information on a uniform basis both about the country as a whole and about individual small areas and sub-groups of the population in relation to one another.

1.6 Basic information on the population size, age, sex and location are fundamental to many government policies including:

x ageing and pensions

x migration both into and out of the country, and internally

x long-term sustainability of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and thus long-term sustainability of government revenues

x labour supply and, thus, inﬂationary pressures

1.7 Information on housing, household size and family make-up is key for:

x redressing inadequate accommodation and over-crowding x local housing demand and planning

while other information collected as part of the census:

x provides a better understanding of pressures on transport systems and the planning of roads and public transport using information collected on travel to and from work, and on car ownership

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x enables the identiﬁcation of areas of deprivation for targeting initiatives such as Neighbourhood Renewal and Sure Start

x provides information on ethnicity, qualiﬁcations and labour market status, for instance, to identify the causes of deprivation and appropriate policy interventions

x shows how many people work in different occupations and industries

throughout the country, helping government and businesses to plan jobs and training policies and to make informed investment decisions

Benchmarking

1.8 The census provides the basis for deriving many social and economic indicators such as:

x population estimates

x employment and unemployment rates x birth, death, mortality and fertility rates

x equalities monitoring, in particular, census information on age, sex, ethnicity, religion, and disability help to identify the extent and nature of disadvantage and to measure the success of equal opportunities policies

x grossing-up sample survey data, in particular, the Census underpins socio- economic surveys carried out by government and the private sector – as the survey results are grossed to census population counts. Without the Census such surveys would be less reliable or would need to be larger and more costly 1.9 Census benchmarks underpin democratic engagement. The Boundary Commission

takes account of population change to reshape constituency boundaries.

Furthermore, MEP representation is calculated using population ﬁgures.

Allocation of resources

1.10 The Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG) and the

Department of Health (DH) allocate money to Local Authorities and Primary Care Trusts to ensure that access to services is based on relative need rather than the ability of a local area to fund those services. Between them CLG and DH currently allocate about £120bn a year to Local Authorities and Primary Care Trusts in England, largely based on a whole range of census-derived population estimates, projections and breakdowns. In Wales, Census-derived indicators are used in the direct allocation of around £1.7bn out of the £3.8bn available to councils in the Revenue Support Grant settlement. A further £4.6bn is allocated to health areas in Wales, though here the apportionment is only in part based on census ﬁgures.

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Local investment and monitoring

1.11 The Census drives targeting of local services such as:

x local health, for which Census questions on illness are good predictors of demand on the NHS

x local education needs for which the Census informs where to site new schools x local transport planning and trafﬁc modelling

x local authority development plans to ensure that development happens at the right locations

x community support services, including home help and home care

Use by businesses

1.12 It is estimated that the value of census data to businesses alone counted over the 10-year cycle is in the region of £250 million³.

Research

1.13 The Census is an excellent source of data for research purposes. The ONS

Longitudinal Study (a 1 per cent sample based on census records linked together from the four Censuses since 1971 and combined with other sources such as cancer registrations, births and deaths) provides, for example, an unrivalled source for the examination of change over time. Such studies increase our understanding of social conditions and can shed light on the impact of past policies. One such example is the use of longitudinal data on mortality in different socio-economic groups linked to the Census for the purpose of pension planning.⁴ In conducting all such research ONS takes its confidentiality pledge to the public extremely seriously. Personal details are separated from census responses so that no identifiable information can be linked to the name and address of individuals. In addition, when data are published ONS takes great care to ensure that reports are anonymised so that no individual data can be identified.

Alternative data sources

1.14 In 2003 ONS undertook a strategic review in which it considered a number of alternative ways of collecting the type of information traditionally provided by a census. These alternative approaches to collecting census-type information^5–8 were considered in consultation with users, the key message from which was that the Census was still regarded as the most authoritative source of information for a wide range of uses. It provides a snapshot of the country, with consistent and comparable information for small areas and sub-populations, and allows multivariate analyses that are not feasible using any other data source.

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1.15 Accordingly, in the absence of any sufﬁciently comprehensive alternative sources of information, and in order to be assured of meeting the wide range of users’

needs for information, ONS concluded that plans for a Census in 2011 should be taken forward.

The role of the Ofﬁce for National Statistics as an independent statistics agency

1.16 Since the last Census in England and Wales, the function of the Registrar General, who had had the statutory responsibility for conducting the Census since 1841, has been separated from the rest of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) by virtue of the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007. The responsibility for carrying out the Census under the provisions of the Census Act 1920, however, remains within the Office for National Statistics (ONS) by virtue of the legal authority of the newly created independent Statistics Board (whose executive functions are carried out under the title of the UK Statistics Authority), and with Ministerial responsibility transferred from the Treasury to the Cabinet Office (and for some issues, to the Welsh Ministers – see paragraph 1.18). However, the scope and authority of the Census Act otherwise remains broadly unchanged (see Chapter 7) as a result of the 2007 Act, though the provisions particularly concerned with protecting confidentiality have been extended (see Chapter 6).

1.17 While the design and statistical integrity of the Census are, properly, matters for which sole responsibility should rest with the UK Statistics Authority and the National Statistician, approval of the form and the content of the Census is a matter for Parliament and the Welsh Ministers.

A formal role for the Welsh Assembly Government

1.18 The statutory responsibility for the administration and the conduct of the Census is not a matter that has been fully devolved in Wales, and thus, such responsibility rests with the UK Statistics Authority. However, as a result of the concerns and strength of feeling expressed by users and stakeholders in Wales at the time of the 2001 Census over the lack of a ‘Welsh’ tick box response category in the ethnic group question, and following the recommendation of the Treasury Select Committee in its report on the 2001 Census⁹, the UK Government made a commitment to work with the Welsh Assembly Government to provide the means to give Welsh Ministers a more formal role in determining the conduct and content of the Census in Wales.

1.19 Information on the legislative process necessary for taking the Census in Wales is set out in Chapter 7. Where the arrangements for carrying out the Census in Wales are different from those in England these are noted in the relevant sections of this White Paper.

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Separate consideration of the proposals for the Censuses in England and Wales, in Scotland and in Northern Ireland

1.20 In Scotland and in Northern Ireland, the Census is fully devolved. The

arrangements described in this White Paper where they refer to the conduct of the Censuses in Scotland and Northern Ireland, whether in common with the approach taken in England and Wales or in its references to proposals particular to Scotland or Northern Ireland, will be subject to the consideration of the respective devolved administrations.

1.21 The UK Government and the UK Statistics Authority welcome the detailed planning and preparations already in progress for the conduct of the Censuses in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Not only do the proposals permit harmonisation of 2011 Census results across the United Kingdom, in line with user demand, but they also provide the basis for the Censuses to be carried out efﬁciently while remaining sensitive to different circumstances and user needs in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Continued close co-operation and joint working on the Census is also consonant with the aim of the concordat on statistics proposed between the United Kingdom administrations. The Government understands that the Registrars General for Scotland and Northern Ireland plan to proceed on a similar timetable to that in England and Wales.

International perspective and EU Regulations

1.22 The need for information is shared by the European Union (EU). The European Commission needs to be in possession of sufficiently reliable and comparable data on population and housing in order to fulfil the tasks assigned to it, notably by Articles 2 and 3 of the Treaty establishing the European Community¹⁰. To this end a Council and European Parliament Regulation¹¹ requiring Member States to provide the Statistical Office of the European Communities (Eurostat) with census- derived statistical information, or equivalent data, relating to the reference year 2011 came into force in July 2008. Aggregated statistics, agreed by the National Statistical Institutes of Member States, and to be prescribed by a subsequent Commission Regulation, will be supplied to Eurostat for use by the European Commission in support of the European Parliament. Arrangements will be put in place to ensure that statistical disclosure controls are in place to protect the confidentiality of any statistical data to be made accessible to Eurostat under this obligation (see also Chapter 6).

1.23 The United Kingdom is playing a full part in discussions to ensure harmonisation of the statistics produced by the different EU Member States. The concepts and deﬁnitions to be adopted by the EU will adhere to the Conference of European Statisticians’ Recommendations for the 2010 Censuses of Population and

Housing¹², prepared by a joint Eurostat and UN Economic Commission for Europe Working Group, to which the UK made a signiﬁcant contribution.

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1.24 The UK will also comply, as far as possible, with any statistical requirements

identiﬁed by the United Nations (UN). A set of principles and recommendations for the next round of censuses throughout the world has been adopted¹³, following a meeting of the UN Statistical Commission in New York in February 2008, and all countries have been asked to produce core outputs which will be incorporated into a UN demographic publication.

Recommendations from the 2001 Census and the strategic aims for 2011

1.25 The strategic aims for the 2011 Census have taken into account the lessons learned from the 2001 Census assessed through ONS’s own evaluations and changes in society expected between 2001 and 2011. ONS also took account of the recommendations made by external bodies, such as the Treasury Select Committee, the National Audit Ofﬁce, the Statistics Commission, the Public Accounts Committee and the Local Government Association in their own

independent reviews of the 2001 Census^9,14–17. In summary, the key issues raised in these reviews covered the need to:

x agree earlier those contractual arrangements with external suppliers for aspects of the census operation that are to be outsourced, and ensure that all such suppliers are selected through rigorous procurement procedures and early enough so that systems are able to be fully tested before the Census

x develop a high quality and up-to-date address list to increase the efﬁciency of the delivery of Census forms

x develop robust ﬁeld management and form-tracking systems to enable better central control of ﬁeld processes and activities

x undertake more detailed and earlier engagement with stakeholders, particularly local authorities and to review consultation processes to ensure that the needs of the disabled community are taken into account

x review consultation processes to ensure that the views of people in Wales and the Welsh Assembly Government are better reﬂected in census planning x review whether or not the coverage survey design is sufﬁcient to identify

under-enumeration in the hardest-to-count areas x review the need to collect information on income

x review the cost-beneﬁt trade-offs in aiming to produce more timely outputs that are consistent and harmonised across the UK

x review the mechanisms to protect statistical conﬁdentiality without eroding the utility of the data

1.26 Taking account of the many comments and recommendations arising from the 2001 Census, the UK Statistics Authority’s proposals for the 2011 Census are based on a number of strategic aims:

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x to give the highest priority to getting the national and local population counts right

x to build effective partnerships with other organisations, particularly local authorities, in planning and executing the ﬁeld operation

x to provide high quality, value-for-money, ﬁt-for purpose statistics that meet user needs and which are as consistent, comparable and accessible across the UK as is possible

x to maximise overall response rates and minimise differences in response rates in speciﬁc areas and among particular population sub-groups

x to protect, and be seen to protect, conﬁdential personal census information

Summary of the key 2011 Census design features

1.27 In summary it is proposed that:

x The 2011 Census will cover everyone usually resident in England and Wales on Census night, with a subset of information also collected from visitors present on Census night. Information will also be collected from residents in communal establishments and individuals or households with no usual or physical address

x Forms will primarily be delivered by post (to as many as 95 per cent of

households). Field staff delivery will be focused in areas which are particularly hard to enumerate

x The public will be able to return completed forms either by post, online, or by doorstep collection; special arrangements will be made to collect forms from households who are otherwise unable to complete returns in these ways x Help will be available to anyone who has difﬁculty in completing the Census

form

x There will be a slight increase in the number of questions compared with the 2001 Census, but the form has been re-designed to make it easier to complete x There will be some differences in the questions asked in England and Wales

compared to the 2001 Census, (and some further differences compared with the Censuses in Scotland and in Northern Ireland)

x Signiﬁcant changes from 2001 in the questions proposed are:

– questions on national identity and citizenship

– additional response categories in the ethnicity question – questions on second residences

– a question on language

– the inclusion of a civil partnership category in the marital status question – questions on date of entry into the UK for in-migrants and intention to stay – no inclusion of the questions on access to toilet and bath/shower

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Details of these and of other changes to the topic content are set out in Chapter 3.

x Each question included in the proposals meets a demonstrated need and is suitable for a self-completed form; previous censuses or tests have shown the questions to be generally acceptable to the public, but the acceptability of all questions will be subject to further assessment during 2009.

x Stringent conﬁdentiality and security procedures will protect the information gathered in the Census and will conform to the requirements of Census Conﬁdentiality, Data Protection and Freedom of Information legislation as well as to the provisions of the new Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 (see Chapter 6 for more detail).

x The Census relies on public co-operation, and to help achieve this there will be publicity to convey to the public the purpose and value of the Census and to give assurances about the conﬁdentiality with which information is treated.

x Initiatives have been put into place to maximise, and measure effectively, the quality of the information collected; in particular, Census coverage and quality surveys will be carried out to measure the number of people not counted by the Census and the quality of the responses given.

x The statistical outputs from the Census will be designed to meet user requirements, and dissemination will be to a pre-arranged timetable.

Cost and ﬁnancial control

1.28 On the basis of present planning assumptions, the total cost of the 2011 Census in England and Wales over the eleven year period 2005–2016 is currently estimated to be £482 million. The breakdown for this period is:

(£ millions)

England 2005– 2007– 2008– 2009– 2010– 2011– 2012– Total

and Wales 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2016 2005–2016

Costs 12.0 11.3 40.6 48.7 152.4 184.7 32.0 481.7

1.29 Provision of £450 million for the cost of the Census has been made up to the period 2011–12. Provision for later years will be subject to future spending reviews and will cover the ﬁnal stages of data and output processing, dissemination and a number of subsequent output services and releases.

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1.30 Costs of the Census operation will be closely controlled and monitored. The largest elements of the total cost are the field operation – the delivery and collection of the questionnaires – and the processing of the data. In a drive to improve the cost effectiveness of the operation, the Census Offices are taking forward the outsourcing of these and some other aspects of the 2011 Census, building on the 2001 experience (see paragraphs 4.74–4.81). Altogether around 55 per cent of the planned costs of the Census have been identified for possible private sector involvement.

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Helping to shape tomorrow. The 2011 Census of Population and Housing in England and Wales

Helping to shape tomorrow

The 2011 Census of Population

and Housing in England and Wales

Cabinet Ofﬁce

Helping to shape tomorrow

The 2011 Census of Population and Housing in England and Wales

Contents

Preface

Rt Hon Liam Byrne, MP, Minister for the Cabinet Ofﬁce and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster

Foreword

Sir Michael Scholar, Chair, UK Statistics Authority

Executive Summary

Introduction – decision on the 2011 Census (Chapter 1)

Summary of the key 2011 Census design features (Chapter 1)

Costs (Chapter 1)

Consultations and tests (Chapter 2)

The population base (Chapter 3)

The Census questions (Chapter 3)

Data collection (Chapter 4)

Arrangements in Wales in respect of the Welsh Language Act (Chapter 4)

Data quality and coverage (Chapter 4)

Publicity (Chapter 4)

Outsourcing (Chapter 4)

Data processing (Chapter 5)

Coverage assessment and adjustment (Chapter 5)

Output dissemination (Chapter 5)

Conﬁdentiality (Chapter 6)

Privacy and human rights (Chapter 6)

The legislative process (Chapter 7)

Devolution of the Censuses in Scotland and Northern Ireland (Chapter 7)

Introduction

1 1

1 Introduction

The decision on the Census

The role of the Census in meeting the need for information for national and local decision making

The role of the Ofﬁce for National Statistics as an independent statistics agency

A formal role for the Welsh Assembly Government

Separate consideration of the proposals for the Censuses in England and Wales, in Scotland and in Northern Ireland

International perspective and EU Regulations

Recommendations from the 2001 Census and the strategic aims for 2011

Summary of the key 2011 Census design features

Cost and ﬁnancial control

Consultations and census tests

2