Factoring in Demographics, Queensland’s regions
Sandi Van Roo Team Leader
Government Statistician, Queensland Treasury and Trade
Quality decision making requires quality information
• “Quality” often depends on the context of use and collection
• Data must be fit for purpose
– Accurate - Unbiased – Available - Relevant – Repeatable - Current
– Comparable - Interpretable
– Relevant
Quality data from a range of sources
• Australian Bureau of Statistics Census (5 yearly)
• Australian Government administrative data
• State Government administrative data
• Local Government collections
• Other
– Academia
– Surveys (often cannot get specific LGA results
though)
What do the data represent?
• Actual counts of people, things or events
– Census data
– Hospital admissions
• Weighted estimates e.g.
– Survey data
• Model estimates e.g.
– Small area population estimates
– DEEWR small area employment rates
Measures: one size does not fit all
• National trends/issues may not reflect local trends and issues
• Need for understanding of specific dynamics and demographics of local areas
• Planning for engagement, services and
infrastructure – what, who for and why?
Data tasters
Queensland and its regions
Population, Queensland’s regions
• Understanding estimated resident populations
• Population growth
• The ageing population
• Labour force
• Workforce commuting
• Overseas migrants
• Government Statistician data sources
ABS releases of final rebased (and recast) ERP:
• 20 June 2013
– Australia and State Sept 1991-2011
• 30 August 2013
– Total ERP SA2, SA3, SA4 for 1992-2011 – Total ERP LGA for 2001-2011
– Age by sex ERP sub-state 2001-2011
– Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and non-Indigenous populations, 30 June 2011
• April 2014
– Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander estimates 2001-2026
Estimated Resident Population
Qld growth over 20 years to 2011
2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Persons (millions)
Year to 30 June
ERP prior to rebasing/recasting Preliminary rebased ERP Final rebased ERP
103,504
ABS ERPs:
Recast growth 15 years 1991-2006 2.0% p.a. (2.2% prior to recasting)
2006-2011 prior to rebasing 2.3% p.a. ….after final rebasing 2.2% p.a.
Case Study - Mackay City ERP
• Final rebased ERP 2011: 115,960 (2012: 119,081)
• Preliminary pre-Census ERP for 2011: 121,072
– 2011 ERP revised downwards by 5,110 people
• Final recast ERP 2006: 103,570
– 2006 ERP revised downwards by 3,770 people
• Growth 2006-2011
– Revised downwards by 1,350 people to 12,390, or 2,480 people per annum.
– Growth rate revised downwards by 0.2% to 2.3% per annum
Components of population change, Queensland
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Persons
Year to 30 June
Natural increase Net overseas migration Net interstate migration
Net interstate migration, Queensland, year to 30 June 2012
Source: preliminary estimates, ABS, 3101.0 Dec 2012
QLD NIM 11,800
Net loss to WA (4 th year running after a decade of gains)
12
Overseas Migration, Queensland
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
Per cent
Persons Net overseas migration (LHS) % of national total (RHS)
break in time series
Population growth – factors to consider
• Not just amount and location of growth
• Characteristics of growth e.g.:
– Ageing population = infrastructure /services designed for ageing and eventually ailing population
– Continued growth in children = schools, sporting facilities etc.
– Changing household structures; growth in 1 and 2 person households
– Changing journey to work patterns
Average annual population growth Queensland LGAs 2002-2012
LGA ERP 2012 Total change
since 2002 Largest population growth
Brisbane 1,110,473 202,184
Gold Coast 526,173 131,542
Moreton Bay 400,036 108,493
Largest population growth outside of SEQ
Townsville 184,526 39,411
Cairns 165,388 37,680
Mackay 119,081 27,527
Largest population decrease
Cassowary Coast 28,693 -754
See inset
Inset
Geographic distribution of recent overseas migrants
Arrived January 2007 to 2011 Census night
Source: ABS 2011 Census of Population and Housing.
Graphic published by DIAC in Migration to Australia’s states and territories 2011-12
Brisbane (C) Gold Coast (C) Logan (C)
persons % persons % persons %
Population born
overseas 295,201 28.3 138,036 27.9 72,611 26.1
Top overseas countries of birth
NZ 41,077 3.9 NZ 42,543 8.6 NZ 21,835 7.9
England 39,721 3.8 England 27,705 5.6 England 12,511 4.5
China 18,555 1.8 South Africa 5,882 1.2 Philippines 2,271 0.8
India 18,049 1.7 Japan 3,672 0.7 South Africa 1,883 0.7
Population speaking
LOTE at home: 192,586 18.5 50,640 10.2 35,544 12.8
Most common LOTE
spoken at home: Mandarin 27,363 2.6 Japanese 4,727 1.0 Samoan 3,876 1.4
Top three LGAs, overseas born, 2011 Census
* LOTE – language other than English
Cairns (C) Townsville (C) Toowoomba (C)
persons % persons % persons %
Population born
overseas 31,598 20.2 23,182 13.3 15,785 10.4
Top overseas countries of birth
England 6,503 4.2 England 4,936 2.8 England 3,262 2.2
NZ 5,281 3.4 NZ 4,483 2.6 NZ 2,288 1.5
PNG 1,996 1.3 Philippines 1,208 0.7 South Africa 837 0.6
Japan 1,541 1.0 South Africa 930 0.5 Philippines 700 0.5
Population speaking
LOTE at home: 17,069 10.9 10,471 6.0 6,978 4.6
Most common LOTE
spoken at home: Japanese 2,063 1.3 Italian 887 0.5 Arabic 688 0.5
Top three LGAs outside SEQ, all overseas born, 2011 Census
Source: ABS 2011 Census of Population and Housing.
Future growth
Useful Government Statistician products:
• Population projections
• Broadhectare Studies
– Location, quantity, timeframe, dwelling yield and density
• Residential Land Development Activity Profile, Local Government Areas
• Building approvals
• Resource area non-resident workers on-shift/FTE
populations, non-resident population projections
Population projections
A range of different publications and series exist:
• Qld Government Statistician
– Primarily designed to provide small area data to inform planning for the future.
– Use a range of inputs including local knowledge around land supply.
– Location, rate, amount and composition
• Variations between publications due to:
– differing assumptions, base years and inputs
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Actual and projected population – Queensland, 1991 to 2056
Sources: ABS, 3101.0, Sep 2011 (2007-2011 estimates prior to rebasing) and Government Statistician population projections, 2011 edition, Queensland Treasury and Trade
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056
Persons (millions)
Estimated resident population Projected - high series
Projected - low series Projected - medium series
2011 4.58m (2011pr 4.47m)
11.1m
9.1m
7.3m
2021 5.29 - 5.91m 2.96m
2011: projection based on 2006 ERP was 4.58 million people Rebased 2011 ERP was 4.47 million
21
Ageing population
Queensland, 30 June 2011
• 23.3% were Baby boomers (1946-1964)
– 1,040,700 people
– Now entering retirement age
• 26.6% were Gen X (1965-1983)
– 1,188,100 people
– 20 to 40 years working life ahead (at least…)
• 26.2% Gen Y (1984-2002)
– Some in workforce, youngest still in primary
school
Dependency ratio, Qld
Sources: ABS, 3101.0; Queensland Government medium series population projections, 2011 edition, Government Statistician, Queensland Treasury and Trade (please note that projections are updated on a 2 ½ year cycle)
Projected 0-14 year olds: stable 29-30 per 100 working age persons
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051
Dependents per 100 working population
Total historical Total DR projected Aged DR Hist Young DR Hist Aged DR projected Young DR projected
19.2 per 100
38.1 per 100 67.7 per 100 63.3 per 100
Young population
Ageing population
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Dependency Ratio, 30 June 2012
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
Fraser Coast (R) South Burnett (R) North Burnett (R) Southern Downs (R) Hinchinbrook (S) Torres Strait Island (R) Bundaberg (R) Gympie (R) Mornington (S) Flinders (S) Goondiwindi (R) Doomadgee (S) Cherbourg (S) Quilpie (S) Charters Towers (R) Tablelands (R) Northern Peninsula Area (R) Burdekin (S) Scenic Rim (R) Woorabinda (S) Yarrabah (S) Western Downs (R) Somerset (R) Sunshine Coast (R) Balonne (S) Etheridge (S) Murweh (S) Blackall Tambo (R) Toowoomba (R) Winton (S) Paroo (S) Longreach (R) Barcaldine (R) Banana (S) Cassowary Coast (R) Lockyer Valley (R) Torres (S) Maranoa (R) Moreton Bay (R) Rockhampton (R) Napranum (S) Redland (C) Ipswich (C) Palm Island (S) Gold Coast (C) Logan (C) Croydon (S) Carpentaria (S) Cairns (R) Aurukun (S) Mackay (R) Pormpuraaw (S) Gladstone (R) Hope Vale (S) Lockhart River (S) Townsville (C) Boulia (S) Whitsunday (R) Richmond (S) Central Highlands (R) Mount Isa (C) Wujal Wujal (S) Kowanyama (S) Isaac (R) Brisbane (C) Bulloo (S) Mapoon (S) Cook (S) Barcoo (S) Weipa (T) Cloncurry (S) McKinlay (S) Burke (S) Diamantina (S) per 100 persons aged 15-64 years
Child dependency ratio Aged dependency ratio
Labour force
Labour force participation rates, Qld 1978-2013
Source: ABS 6202.0 Labour Force, Australia – seasonally adjusted data 0.0
10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
Participation rate
Males Females Persons
March 2013: Male 72.0%; Female 59.8%; Person 65.9%
27
Labour force participation rates, Qld
Source: ABS 6202.0 Labour Force, Australia – seasonally adjusted data and Queensland Government Statistician unpublished, Queensland Treasury and Trade
28
Labour force
• Significant drivers of increased participation in recent decades:
– females entering labour market
– participation among older persons (50+ years)
• Participation rates likely to decrease in future:
– Convergence of female rates to male rates likely to slow (biggest gains already made)
– Aging population will impact on aggregate participation rates
• Policy and economic drivers may also change .
29
Labour force
• 65+ population will double over next 20 years
– 1.29 million by 2031
– 19.6% of total population
• Working age population (15-64 year olds)
– Growth projected to slow from 1.8% p.a. to 0.9% p.a
– 4.1 million by 2031
– 62.1% of total population
30
Sources: ABS, 3101.0; Queensland Government medium series population projections, 2011 edition, Government Statistician, Queensland Treasury and Trade (please note that projections are updated on a 2 ½ year cycle)
Regional unemployment rates, year to July 2013
Source: ABS Labour Force Survey, 12 month averaged data to July 2013, for Australia, Queensland, and Queensland Labour Force Statistical Regions
8.2 5.0
5.5 4.7
8.6 5.8
6.5 6.3 5.8 5.1
6.3 6.1 5.1
6.0 5.5
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
Far North Northern-North West Mackay-Fitzroy-Central West Darling Downs-South West Wide Bay-Burnett Gold Coast West Moreton Sunshine Coast Ipswich City North Brisbane SD Balance South and East Brisbane SD Balance Brisbane City Outer Ring Brisbane City Inner Ring Queensland Australia
unemployment rate (%)
Youth unemployment, year to July 2013
Unemployment rate (%)
Regions* 15-19 years 20-24 years All ages
Brisbane 18.8 9.8 5.7
Ipswich 14.0 7.4 5.8
Sunshine Coast 18.2 8.7 6.3
West Moreton 17.1 8.0 6.5
Wide Bay-Burnett 21.3 13.8 8.6
Mackay-Fitzroy-Central West 15.9 8.4 5.5
Darling Downs-South West 15.1 10.1 4.7
Northern-North West 9.4 11.5 5.0
Far North 18.1 15.2 8.2
Gold Coast 14.7 9.9 5.8
Queensland 17.1 10.2 6.0
AUSTRALIA 16.3 9.1 5.5
Source: ABS Labour Force Survey, 12 month averaged data to July 2013, for Australia, Queensland, and Queensland Labour Force Statistical Regions
Employment growth by region, year to July 2013
6.2 1.7
2.6 0.1
-1.0 -4.8
1.8 1.1 1.1
4.6 -8.5
6.5 -4.4
-10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Far North Northern-North West Mackay-Fitzroy-Central West Darling Downs-South West Wide Bay-Burnett Gold Coast West Moreton Sunshine Coast Ipswich City North Brisbane SD Balance South and East Brisbane SD Balance Brisbane City Outer Ring Brisbane City Inner Ring
employment growth ('000s)
Source: ABS Labour Force Survey, 12 month averaged data to July 2013, for Australia, Queensland, and Queensland Labour Force Statistical Regions
Industry employment, year to May 2013
0.0 40.0 80.0 120.0 160.0
Accommodation & Food Administrative & Support Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Arts & Recreation Construction Education & Training Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Financial & Insurance Health Care & Social Assistance Information Media & Telecomms Manufacturing Mining Other Services Professional, Scientific & Technical Public Administration & Safety Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Retail Trade Transport, Postal & Warehousing Wholesale Trade
industry employment ('000s) Greater Brisbane Regional Queensland
Source: ABS Labour Force Survey, four quarter averaged data to May 2013 by the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations, Qld Labour Force Statistics ‘rapid distribution’ web page (Australian Government)
Employment growth by industry, year to May 2013
Source: ABS Labour Force Survey, four quarter averaged data to May 2013 by the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations, Qld Labour Force Statistics ‘rapid distribution’ web page (Australian
-4.6 -5.6
12.9 4.6
-9.3
-1.4 -2.5 -5.9
1.9
2.7
6.3 -2.0
1.4 4.0 1.9
3.7
7.3 -5.2
-8.5
5.9
-15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0
Wholesale Trade Transport, Postal & Warehousing Retail Trade Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Public Administration & Safety Professional, Scientific & Technical Other Services Mining Manufacturing Information Media & Telecomms Health Care & Social Assistance Financial & Insurance Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Education & Training Construction Arts & Recreation Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Administrative & Support Accommodation & Food
industry employment ('000s) Regional Queensland Greater Brisbane
Business owners*
by region, 2009-10
*Persons who earned income from an own unincorporated business income category.
Source: ABS 6524.0.55.002, Estimates of Personal Income for Small Areas, 2009–10
as % of all incom e earners 35% to 45%
25% to 35%
15% to 25%
up to 15%
as % of all incom e earners 35% to 45%
25% to 35%
15% to 25%
up to 15%
Commuters in SEQ, 2011 Census
Region of employment
Region of residence (SA4) Brisbane* Same region SEQ balance Australia
balance Other** Total
– persons –
Brisbane* 462,045 50,285 7,841 58,748 578,919
Gold Coast 15,917 168,142 9,621 8,978 35,027 237,685
Ipswich 36,116 63,272 4,441 3,627 15,247 122,703
Logan – Beaudesert 46,151 50,775 13,946 1,742 19,845 132,459
Moreton Bay – North 24,982 40,599 9,572 1,653 13,053 89,859
Moreton Bay – South 45,609 23,339 6,830 1,149 9,761 86,688
Sunshine Coast 5,187 102,179 3,734 4,930 19,043 135,073
– % –
Brisbane4 79.8 8.7 1.4 10.1 100.0
Gold Coast 6.7 70.7 4.0 3.8 14.7 100.0
Ipswich 29.4 51.6 3.6 3.0 12.4 100.0
Logan – Beaudesert 34.8 38.3 10.5 1.3 15.0 100.0
Moreton Bay – North 27.8 45.2 10.7 1.8 14.5 100.0
Moreton Bay – South 52.6 26.9 7.9 1.3 11.3 100.0
Sunshine Coast 3.8 75.6 2.8 3.6 14.1 100.0
*Brisbane region combines the SA4s of Brisbane – East, Brisbane – North, Brisbane – South, Brisbane – West and Brisbane Inner City.
** ‘Other’ category includes regions of employment coded to ‘undefined’ categories, migratory, offshore & shipping, no fixed address and not stated.
ABS, 2011 Census TableBuilder Pro
Government Statistician data sources
Qld Regional Database (QRSIS) – time-series collections of economic, social and demographic data for regions
throughout Queensland.
SP1
Slide 38
SP1 Can update this home Suzanne Philp, 22/08/2013
Spatial Price Index, Queensland, 2010
All items index All items less housing index
Source: Government Statistician, Queensland Treasury and Trade, Index of Retail Prices in Queensland Regional Centres, May 2010
