Sampo Group
Debt Investor Presentation
Prepared June 16, 2016
Figures March 31, 2016
markku.pehkonen@sampo.fi
Peter Johansson, CFO tel. +358 10 516 0010 peter.johansson@sampo.fi
Jarmo Salonen, Head of IR Relations and Group Communications
tel. +358 10 516 0030 jarmo.salonen@sampo.fi
Week 11 Annual Report 2015 21/04/2016 AGM 11/05/2016 Interim Statement Q1/2016 Silent period 13/04/2016-11/05/2016 10/08/2016 Half-year report 2016 Silent period 11/07/2016-10/08/2016 03/11/2016 Interim Statement Q3/2016 Silent period 04/10/2016-03/11/2016
Rated Company Moody's Standard and Poor's
Rating Outlook Rating Outlook
Sampo plc Baa2 Positive A- Stable
If P&C Insurance (Sweden) A2 Positive A+ Stable
If P&C Insurance Co. (Finland) A2 Positive A+ Stable
Disclaimer
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements that reflect management’s current views with respect to certain future events and potential financial performance. Although Sampo believes that the expectations reflected in such forward looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors.
Important factors that may cause such a difference for Sampo include, but are not limited to: (i) the macroeconomic development, (ii) change in the competitive climate and (iii) developments in capital markets.
This presentation does not imply that Sampo has undertaken to revise these forward-looking statements, beyond what is required by applicable law or applicable stock exchange regulations if and when circumstances arise that will lead to changes compared to the date when these statements were provided.
Mission
Value Creation in the Nordic Financials
3-10
If P&C
The Leading Nordic P&C Insurer
11-18
Mandatum Life
A Finnish Financial Services Company
19-25
Sampo Group
A Diversified Business Portfolio with Strong Capitalization 26-36
Sampo plc
Portfolio Manager with Capacity to Generate Funds
37-44
Appendix
Separate Supplementary Information
45-58
• Listed company Sampo plc • Long-term investor
• Manager of capital structure and liquidity • Pay-out ratio ≥ 50%
Nordic Financial Group with Strong Brands
MARKET POSITION STRATEGY INVESTMENT ASSETS RETURN / PROFIT TARGET 21.2%
• The leading P&C insurer in the Nordic region
• Focus on customer value • Most professional &
innovative people • Stable profitability • Underwriting excellence • Operational efficiency ~ EUR 11.1bn • RoE above 17.5% • CR% below 95% > 30% 100%
• The largest financial services group in the Northern Europe • Simplification
• Core Banking Platform • Group Common Data • Legal Structure
Programme • Digital strategy ~ B/S EUR 676bn ~ AuM EUR 291bn
• ROE above the Nordic peer average
• The second largest P&C insurer in Denmark
• Customer satisfaction • Pricing • Efficiency • Distribution power • Share buy-back ~ EUR 2.5bn P&C • Profit margin of 10% • CR% 91% • Unit-linked products • Wealth management • Personal Risk insurance • Group pension &
Reward Services • The leading provider of cover against health and life risks, well-respected manager of customer wealth
~ EUR 5.2bn+1.2bn* ~ EUR 5.6bn U-L AuM
• RoE above 17.5%
* Segregated assets
100%
Sampo Group Steering Model and Principles
• Three separate and independent business areas, and Parent Company acting
merely as a Portfolio Manager
• General Principles of Business activities
– Straightforward and transparent legal structure combined with limited
intragroup exposures
– Clear responsibilities
– Simple and flat operational structures
• Parent company gives guidance to the subsidiaries by setting
– Targets for their capitalization and return on equity (RoE)
– Group-wide principles for Risk Management, Remuneration, Compliance,
Code of Conduct
• Subsidiaries organize underwriting activities independently taking into account
– the specific characteristics of their operations
– the above guidance from the parent company
– the stakeholders’ expectations and external regulations
5• If generated EUR 216m (200) in pre-tax profits • Excellent combined ratio of 83.0% (89.2)
– Risk ratio 60.7% (66.6) – Cost ratio 22.3% (22.6) – Expense ratio 16.9% (16.8)
• Resilient business model over the cycle
• Topdanmark – Danish non-life, life insurance and pension funds – as an associate company
If P&C ― Well-diversified and Profitable Pan-Nordic
Non-life Insurer
Well-established Insurance Subsidiaries
• Mandatum Life is a leading life and pension insurer in Finland
• Mandatum has a strong market position in Finland with ca.20% of the market
• Mandatum contributed with EUR 53m (39) in pre-tax profit to the Group
Mandatum Life ― Respected Finnish Expert in Wealth Management,
Investments, Rewards and Risk Insurance
6 • If P&C provides insurance
solutions and services in the Nordic and Baltic regions as well as to Nordic customers with international operations • Business activities are
operated on a pan-Nordic basis. • The business is divided into
customer segments Private, Commercial and Industrial. The Baltic countries comprise a separate business area.
• Mandatum Life Provides a comprehensive range of services in Finland and Baltics for private and corporate customers • Services provided
- wealth management - savings
- personal risk insurance - pension and incentive &
Nordea ‒ Diversified and Stable Nordic Bank
Pan-Nordic platform with scalability • Simplification
• Digitalisation
Superior Nordic distribution power • Cost efficiency
• Capital efficiency • Efficiency initiatives Strong capital generation
• Stable returns • Low risk profile
• Actively managed business portfolios
• Lowest volatility of quarterly net profits
17 24 37
47
79
142
Nordea Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5
Q u a rt e rl y n e t p ro fi t v o la ti li ty
Nordea and peers 2006-Q3/2015,%
AuM EUR 291 bn
7
Topdanmark - Insurer with a Robust Business Model
Value Creation in the Nordic Financials as Group Strategy
LONG-TERM VALUE
CREATION
• Value creation through investments in Nordic financials based on knowledge of Nordic markets, Nordic financial institutions & Nordic people.
• Commitment to the long-term development of affiliated companies.
OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE IN SUBSIDIARIES
• Subsidiaries have focus on continuous development of services. • Economies of scale.
• Pan-Nordic diversification & operational excellence facilitate low volatility.
CONSERVATIVE PARENT WITH PROFIT FOCUS
• Conservative capital structure, low leverage and strong liquidity.
• Parent company steers subsidiaries through Boards by approving (in Nordea and Topdanmark by contributing to) strategies, guiding principles and ROE-targets.
GROUP LEVEL PORTFOLIO BENEFITS
• Profitable companies, mostly with the lowest volatility in the peer group. • Profits of affiliated companies have low correlation creating diversification
benefits at the Group level.
LONG-TERM VALUE
FOR SHAREHOLDERS & BONDHOLDERS
CENTRALIZED INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
• Company specific liabilities and solvency driving risk profiles, supported by a Group-wide investment philosophy. Common investment infrastructure facilitates effective monitoring and fast actions, also at the Group level.
9
33.3 24.3 21.4 21.3 20.4 18.0 17.6 13.5 7.5 4.7 4.2 3.2 2.4 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.4 0 10 20 30 40 Nordea Danske Swedbank Sampo SHB DnB SEB Investor Gjensidige Tryg Industrivärden Jyske Topdanmark Storebrand Alm.Brand Protector Aktia
Efficient and Stable Operations as Basis for Value
Source: Datastream
>30%
Sampo ownership structure
*100% owned by the Republic of Finland; 31.3.2016
Market cap June 14, 2016, EURbn
Strong relative performance 10Y Total Shareholder Return A Mixed Financial Conglomerate
Bank Insurance Inv.company
Foreign and Nominee registered 61.11% Solidium 11.90%*
Varma Mutual Pension 6.35% Björn Wahlroos 2.10%
Ilmarinen Mutual Pension 0.71% Kaleva Mutual Insurance 0.78%
Other domestic owners 17.05% 10
11
Mission
Value Creation in the Nordic Financials
3-10
If P&C
The Leading Nordic P&C Insurer
11-18
Mandatum Life
A Finnish Financial Services Company
19-25
Sampo Group
A Diversified Business Portfolio with Strong Capitalization 26-36
Sampo plc
Portfolio Manager with Capacity to Generate Funds
37-44
Expense Ratios 2015, %
Leading Nordic P&C Insurer with Synergies
Norway 2015 Gjensidige 25% If 22% Tryg 14% Sparebank 1 10% Denmark 3/2015 Tryg 18% Topdanmark 17% Codan (RSA) 11% Alm. Brand 10% If 6% Finland 2015 Pohjola 32% LähiTapiola 25% If 24% Fennia 10% Sweden 2015 LF 30% If 18% RSA (T-H) 14% Folksam 16% Baltics 2015 PZU 24% If 14% BTA 12% Ergo 12% Gjensidige 7%
Market Shares by Country
If 17% Topdanmark 5% Tryg 9% Gjensidige 8% RSA 9% LF 9% Folksam 5% Pohjola 5% LähiTapiola 4% Other 29% 13 16.5 27.3 31.7 26.1 28.4 20.2 30.1 If P&C*
Nordic peer group Generali Zürich AXA Allianz RSA Scandinavia Aviva
Nordic Market Shares
12
Total GWP ~EUR 25bn
Nordic P&C Insurance Market
CONSOLIDATED MARKET
LOW EXPENSE RATIOS
• In addition to the traditional channels, Internet continues to grow in importance both as a distribution and as a service channel. • Also, distribution via partnerships with banks and car-dealers etc.
is increasingly important.
GOOD
PROFITABILITY
• The Nordic P&C market has generally experienced good profitability. The low interest rate environment and hence the low return on
investments has made the industry to focus on profitability in the insurance operations.
• Renewal rates are around 80-90%.
LOYAL CLIENTS
DISTRIBUTION
• The market is characterized by low expense ratios in the rage of 15-20%. European competitors' expense ratios are usually considerably higher.
• The four largest companies account for 75-90% of the markets in Norway, Finland and Sweden. In Denmark the market is less consolidated.
If P&C
By Business Area By Country Private, 139, 75% Commercial, 36, 19% Industrial, 3, 2% Baltic, 3, 2% Other, 4, 2%
Technical Results, EUR 184m
Norway, 8 , 4% Sweden, 138 , 75% Finland , 28 , 15% Denmark, 4 , 2% Baltic, 3, 2% Other, 4 , 2%
Gross Written Premiums, EUR 1,616
By Business Area By Country
Private, 657, 41% Commercial, 640, 40% Industrial, 282, 17% Baltic, 36, 2% Norway, 461 , 29% Sweden, 466 , 29% Finland , 503 , 31% Denmark, 150 , 9% Baltic, 36, 2%
Diversified Client Base
If-Total If Sweden If Norway
If Finland If Denmark
Geographical Diversification in CR
Combined Ratio ― If P&C and Nordic Peers Combined Ratio Development
Standard deviation 2008-2015 2.7% 4.4% 4.7% 3.7% 3.5% 6 6 .2 6 5 .9 6 6 .9 6 8 .1 6 8 .0 6 9 .1 6 8 .4 6 5 .9 6 5 .4 6 5 .1 6 6 .6 6 0 .7 2 4 .3 2 4 .0 2 3 .7 2 3 .7 2 4 .1 2 3 .7 2 3 .5 2 3 .0 2 2 .8 2 2 .5 1 8 .8 2 2 .3 90.5 89.990.691.8 92.192.8 92.088.988.187.785.4 83.0 0 20 40 60 80 100%
Risk ratio Cost ratio Target CR
If P&C 92.1 92.8 92 88.9 88.1 87.7 85.4 93 96.1 95.2 90.7 90.6 88.3 88.2 80 85 90 95 100 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 If P&C Nordic Market (incl.If)
Disciplined Underwriting and Diversification works
15
Conservative Investment Portfolio
• Duration 1.5 years
• Average Maturity 2.8 years
• Fixed Income Running Yield 1.8%
Mark-to-Market Investment Return Investment Allocation 4.3%5.8%4.4% 2.6% -3.1% 12.4% 7.4% 1.8% 6.1% 5.0%4.1% 1.5% -4% -2% 1% 4% 6% 9% 11% 14% Money Market 6% Public sector 13% Other fixed income 68% Equities 13% Private Equity 0.2% Real Estate 0.2%
Investment Return, EURm
821 113 689 558 459 190 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 16 Total EUR 11.1bn 1-3/2016 EUR -17m 1-3/2016 -0.2%
Strong & Stable Annual Profit Development
800 730 534 549 644 707 636 864 929 931 960 -267 1,127 943 308 978 689 526 624-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Profit before tax
Comprehensive income EURm
If P&C
17
EURm 3M/16 3M/15
Profit before taxes 216 200
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Technical result
Investment result
Operating result
Seasonality in Quarterly Results and CR%
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Average Quarterly CR%, 2006-2015 89.9 88.6 88.2 93.1 Year 2015 CR% 87.7 83.8 80.9 89.2 Year 2016 CR% 83.0* EURm 18 * incl.one-off
19
Mission
Value Creation in the Nordic Financials
3-10
If P&C
The Leading Nordic P&C Insurer
11-18
Mandatum Life
A Finnish Financial Services Company
19-25
Sampo Group
A Diversified Business Portfolio with Strong Capitalization 26-36
Sampo plc
Portfolio Manager with Capacity to Generate Funds
37-44
Finnish Life Insurer with Wealth Management Focus
Client
Segment
Underlying
Market
Critical Success Factors
Sales &
Client
Services
Corporate Customers Employee Benefit• Expertise in Rewards and Incentives, Pension & Risk Life Solutions and Asset Management
Mandatum Life
HNWI Wealth
Management
• Professional Wealth Management • Management of Client Relationships
Mandatum Life Private Customers Savings and Insurance Products
• Distribution Power Danske Bank
C
ro
s
s
-s
e
lli
n
g
20Premiums Written, total EUR 245m Insurance Savings, total EUR 9,837m 103 28 78 4 31 20 1
Unit-linked life Unit-linked pension Unit-linked capital redemption
Unit-linked Baltic Other life Other pension
Other capital redemption Other Baltic
2,124 1,772 1,691 146 194 3,865 26 17
Mandatum Life Business Volumes
U-L EUR 5,734m With-Profit EUR 4,103 U-L EUR 211m With-Profit EUR 34m Focus area 4,652 4,626 4,738 4,695 4,621 4,487 4,431 4,410 4,249 4,071 3,927 3,837 3,818 3,755 1,228 1,196 1,184 607 884 1,262 1,752 2,071 1,637 2,359 3,124 3,054 3,833 4,616 5,312 5,858 5,737 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 3/2016 Guaranteed interest rates Segregated funds Unit-linked
Technical Provisions, EUR 10,676m
E U R m Mandatum Life 21
Finnish With-Profit Life Insurance Market
PRINCIPLE OF FAIRNESS
• There is no exact rule on profit sharing (e.g. 90%/10%).
• In the current markets, the principle in ML is reflected in policyholdersʼ reasonable expectations for total accrual, which is an average annual yield of Finnish government bonds over time.
SMOOTHENED BONUSES AND DIVIDENDS OVER TIME
• When company decides on bonuses and dividends, it takes into account (i) policyholdersʼ reasonable expectations, (ii) realized investment returns and current solvency and (iii) uncertainty about the future market environment => Bonuses and dividends can be smoothened over time.
BETTER
POSITION FOR RISK TAKING BENEFITS
STAKEHOLDERS
• Finnish Profit sharing mechanism facilitates and encourages for active investment strategies and risk taking.
• Profit sharing mechanism has benefited both policyholders and shareholders over the years.
Absolute Return Investment Portfolio
Mark-to-Market Investment Return Investment Allocation 8.3% 12.0% 9.7% 5.0% -7.8% 16.8% 11.1% -1.4% 9.4% 7.1% 4.6%6.9% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Mandatum Life 615 -59 504 391 251 427 -200 0 200 400 600 800 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Investment Return, EURm
23 Total EUR 6.4bn
• Duration 2.4 years
• Average Maturity 3.2 years
• Fixed Income Running Yield 3.1%
1-3/2016 EUR 5m 1-3/2016 -0.1% Money Market Securities and Cash 5 % Government Bonds 1 % Credit Bonds, Funds and Loans 53% Policy Loans 0 % Listed Equity 26% Real Estate 4 % Private Equity 4 % Unlisted Equity 0% Biometric 0 % Commodities 0 % AlternativeOther 6 % Trading Derivatives 0 %
Profit Development
295 342 140 121 142 137 136 153 163 181 286 80 -378 495 332 -115 286 220 149 168-500
-250
0
250
500
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
EURm
Profit before taxes
Comprehensive income
24
EURm 3M/16 3M/15
Profit before taxes 53 39
Mandatum Life Profit by Components
Total expense ratio, % 110.6 103.7
Incl. kick backs, % 90.1 84.7
EURm 1-3/2016 1-3/2015
Net investment income -65.0 534.2
- Transferred to expense result -6.1 -6.3
- Return on Unit-linked policies 143.3 -465.8
- Return on With-profit policies* -27.6 -43.9
INVESTMENT RESULT 44.6 18.2
EXPENSE RESULT** 2.8 5.1
RISK RESULT 4.9 6.7
OTHERS 0.4 9.0
PROFIT BEFORE TAXES 52.7 38.9
Change in the market value of investments -71.6 200.0
PROFIT AT MARKET VALUES -18.9 239.0
Mandatum Life Group, expense ratio
Mandatum Life
* Includes guaranteed interest, bonuses and change in the reserves of the above items ** Result of Unit-linked business EUR 3.6 million
26
Mandatum Life
A Finnish Financial Services Company
19-25
Sampo Group
A Diversified Business Portfolio with Strong Capitalization 26-36
Sampo plc
Portfolio Manager with Funds Generating Capacity
37-44
• Geographical diversification • Strong Retail P&C Franchise • Several Lines of Businesses
-Motor, Cargo
-Workersʼ compensation -Liability
-Accident -Property
• Low C/R volatility and Conservative Investments
Diversified Companies & Diversified Portfolio*
• Geographical diversification • Strong Retail Banking Franchise • Diversified earnings base:
-Banking (Retail, Wholesale) -Wealth Management (Asset Management, Private Banking, Life & Pensions)
• Low earnings volatility & stable ROE over the cycle
• Finland & Baltics
• Strong Finnish Position • Product areas -Wealth Management -Unit-linked Business -With-profit Business -Remuneration services -Risk insurance • Dependency on Capital Markets
* Correlations of quarterly Reported Profits Q1/2005–Q1/2016
PBT 2010-15 IF 45% ML 10% Nordea 45% P/L CONTRIBUTIONS 27
LOW VOLATILITY EARNINGS LOW VOLATILITY C/R FOCUS ON U-L & WM
0.26 0.12 1 0.85 1 1 Sampo Group
948 1,295 1,353 870 825 1,320 1,228 1,622 1,668 1,759 1,888 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
P&C
Life
Banking
Nordea dividends
Other
Steady Development of Profit before Taxes
* One-off item – sale of Sampo Bank
EURm * • If P&C • Mandatum Life • Sampo Bank • If P&C • Mandatum Life • Nordea / Investment • If P&C • Topdanmark / Associated • Mandatum Life • Nordea / Associated 3,833 28 EURm 3M/16 3M/15 P&C 216 200 Life 53 39 Nordea 159 223 Holding -12 26 Group 416 487
Different Risk Profiles of Investments
Sampo Group
29
Sampo Group Asset allocation (consolidated)
Total Group (MEUR) 19 226 18 688 19 373 19 615
06/15 09/15 12/15 03/16
Money Market 12% 19% 22% 14% 10% 15% 12% 8% 56% 6% 5% 72%
Long-Term Fixed Income 75% 40% 29% 74% 50% 39% 74% 52% 27% 80% 54% 17%
Equity 13% 26% 46% 12% 25% 43% 13% 26% 15% 13% 26% 10% Private Equity 0% 4% 1% 0% 4% 1% 0% 4% 0% 0% 4% 0% Other 0% 11% 3% 0% 11% 3% 0% 11% 1% 0% 11% 1% 11 778 6 705 743 11 516 6 503 669 11 395 6 667 1 311 11 092 6 450 2 073 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 If P & C M a n d a tu m L if e S a m p o P lc If P&C M a n d a tu m L if e S a m p o P lc If P&C M a n d a tu m L if e S a m p o P lc If P&C M a n d a tu m L if e S a m p o P lc
Investments & Counterparty Exposures*
* In Exposure tables the calculation rules may differ slightly from Allocation tables in some areas.
30 31.3.2016 AAA AA+ - AA-A+ - A-BBB+ - BBB-BB+ - C D Non Rated Fixed Income Total Equities Other Derivatives (Counterparty Risk) Total Change from 31.12.2015 Basic Industry - 33 0 39 147 - 76 295 170 - - 465 + 4 Capital Goods - - 144 55 37 - 111 347 616 - - 963 + 51 Consumer Products - 163 260 175 94 - 101 791 617 - - 1 408 + 70 Energy - 52 47 - 37 - 230 367 12 0 - 379 - 71 Financial Institutions - 1 965 3 126 693 278 - 16 6 077 230 1 50 6 358 - 51 Governments 207 - - - 207 - - - 207 + 35 Government Guaranteed 102 54 - - - 156 - - - 156 - 2 Health Care - - 51 40 51 - 32 174 94 - - 268 - 31 Insurance - - 11 110 4 - 100 226 3 38 - 267 + 24 Media - - 19 - 13 - 58 89 - - - 89 + 10 Packaging - - - - 62 - 23 84 1 - - 85 - 5
Public Sector, other 877 226 41 - - - - 1 144 - - - 1 144 - 2
Real Estate - - - 56 - - 438 494 - 229 - 723 - 100
Services - - 0 66 147 - 66 279 90 0 - 369 + 1
Technology and Electronics 4 41 40 11 28 - 36 160 130 - - 290 + 42
Telecommunications - - 88 41 47 - 42 218 86 0 - 304 + 17 Transportation - 108 7 47 22 - 182 366 28 - - 394 + 42 Utilities - - 24 453 0 - 78 556 - - - 556 + 37 Others - 15 - - 12 - 7 34 0 60 - 94 + 9 Asset-backed Securities - - - + 0 Covered Bonds 2 987 80 - 11 - - - 3 078 - - - 3 078 + 228 Funds - - - 104 104 1 244 671 - 2 019 - 45 Total 4 176 2 737 3 860 1 797 978 - 1 699 15 248 3 321 999 50 19 617 + 262
Change from 31.12.2015 + 260 - 562 + 596 + 268 - 104 - - 60 + 399 - 110 - 61 + 34 + 262 EURm
Principles of Capital Management
1. Sub-Groups are adequately capitalized to ensure normal business
operations
2. At Group level the following issues are managed/monitored
– non-manageable direct risk concentrations
– correlations of the sub-groupsʼ profits
– sub-groups do not cross-capitalize each other, parent is the source of capital
– the funds generating capacity of the parent company is maintained by having low
leverage and adequate liquidity buffers in normal situations
1 +2 => Sampo Group is well-capitalized
31
7 6 9 1 ,4 0 6 295 9 0 4 186 201 141 1 ,6 9 3 3 ,3 5 0 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
Internally assessed Solvency Ratio 198%
EURm
If P&C Solvency, 31.3.2016
1 ,4 4 6 9 5 1 100 4 6 3 186 304 141 2 ,0 5 8 3 ,1 6 9 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500Standard Formula Solvency Ratio 154%
LAC = Loss Absorbing Capacity, DT = Deferred Taxes, SCR= Solvency Capital Requirement
EURm
32
1,259 41 385 268 40 61 279 1,117 279 1,702 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
Mandatum Life Solvency with Transitional Measures,
31.3. 2016
LAC = Loss Absorbing Capacity, TP = Technical Provision, DT = Deferred Taxes
*
* Own Funds without transitional measures EUR 1,227m
EURm
Solvency Ratio 152%
33
Mandatum Life Technical Provisions Forecast
34 EURm 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 5 2 0 2 6 2 0 2 7 2 0 2 8 2 0 2 9 2 0 3 0 2 0 3 1WP-liabilities (4.5% guarantee) WP-liabilities (3.5% guarantee) Segregated Group Pension Other WP-liabilities
Expected Changes in Insurance Liabilities - Growth of Unit-Linked AuM will create own funds - Capital consuming High Guarantee Liabilities will decrease to EUR 1 bn and their portion of all WP-liabilities will decrease
⇒Own Funds decrease slower than the SCR
⇒Solvency stays at adequate level although the effect of Transitional Measures decreases over time
Calculation of Sampo Group Solvency
Group Solvency Capital:
–Under FiCo rules, capital is Group equity with some additional items added or deducted
(subordinated loans, deferred tax assets, planned dividends,…)
–Under SII capital – referred to as Own funds (OF) – consists mainly of excess of assets over liabilities
–Under normal circumstances Group OF by Solvency II and FiCo rules are close to each other.
SCR by Financial Conglomerate Rule:
–The Group’s SCR is the sum of the separate sub-group’s requirements (sectoral rules) –Banking rules are applied for parent company
–No diversification effect between the companies
SCR by Solvency II rules:
–One capital requirement is calculated for the insurance group including the parent company Sampo plc, If P&C and Mandatum Life. This includes diversification effects and also capital requirement for the translation risk related to SEK denominated equity of If P&C
–Nordea’s and Topdanmark´s capital requirements are added to the requirement –The SII SCR takes into account diversification only within the insurance group
=> Sampo Group Solvency Ratios are not comparable with most Insurance Groupsʼ solvency ratios
35
2,058 1,117 3,744 69 6,988 10,024 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Group Solvency Ratios
36 *) incl. Topdanmark 2,900 141 3,744 6,786 9,948 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
143% by FiCoD method
147% by S II method
37
Mission
Value Creation in the Nordic Financials
3-10
If P&C
The Leading Nordic P&C Insurer
11-18
Mandatum Life
A Finnish Financial Services Company
19-25
Sampo Group
A Diversified Business Portfolio with Strong Capitalization 26-36
Sampo plc
Portfolio Manager with Capacity to Generate Funds
37-44
Straightforward Cash Flows, low leverage and liquidity
Dividends
• If P&C
• Mandatum Life • Nordea
• Internal Administration Costs
• Discretionary Dividends for Shareholders
• Interest Expenses for Bondholders
Income
• Interest on Liquidity • Income from other
investments
Sampo plc
Assets EURm 10,384 Liabilities EURm 10,384
Liquidity 1,494 CPs Issued 300
Investment assets 297 LT Senior Debt 2,183
-Real Estate 2 -Private Placements 148
-Fixed Income 34 -Bonds Issued 2,035
-Equity & Private Equity
261 -Pension Insurance
Loans
Subordinated Loans 609 Subordinated Debt 0 Equity Holdings 7,928 Capital 7,810
-Subsidiaries 2,370 -Undistributable 98
-Associated 5,557 -Distributable 7,712
Other Assets 56 Other Liabilities 91
Flow of Funds Balance Sheet
Key Credit Metrics well in Single A range
Sampo plc 31.3.2016
Gross Debt, EURm 2,483
Gross Debt to Equity 31.8%
Financial Leverage 24.1%
(= Debt/(Debt+Equity)
Sampo Group, EURm Q1/2016 Q4/2015
Shareholders' Equity 11,620 11,411
Hybrid Bonds 12 10
Senior Debt 2,335 2,143
Financial leverage 20.1% 18.8%
Liquid Investments as Buffer
39
Sampo plc
Instrument & Principal Running Yield Call/ Maturity
Mandatum Capital Loan 100 m€ 4.57% Every year IF 30NC6.5 90 m€ 4.71% 26.11.2018 IF 30NC10 99 m€ 6.07% 08.12.2021 Nordea AT1 PerpNC5 171 m$ 5.95% 23.9.2019 Nordea AT1 PerpNC5 98 m$ 6.48% 13.9.2021 Topdanmark Tier1 33 m€ 6.01% 15.9.2017 Topdanmark 10NC5 135 mDKK 2.92% 11.12.2020 Topdanmark 10NC5.5 270 mDKK 2.60% 11.6.2021 Subordinated Loans 609 m€ ≈5.30% Cash / Other FI 1528 m€ Other Investments 246 m€ TOTAL * 2,383 m€
• In case subordinated loans are sold, both liquidity and Own Funds are generated • This buffer of liquidity and Own Funds comes with positive interest margin
Sampo Group ― Conservative Leverage
-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Q 1 /0 5 Q 1 /0 6 Q 1 /0 7 Q 1 /0 8 Q 1 /0 9 Q 1 /1 0 Q 1 /1 1 Q 1 /1 2 Q 1 /1 3 Q 1 /1 4 Q 1 /1 5 Q 1 /1 6Sampo plc Net debt Group NAV Group Equity EURm 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Q 1 /0 5 Q 1 /0 6 Q 1 /0 7 Q 1 /0 8 Q 1 /0 9 Q 1 /1 0 Q 1 /1 1 Q 1 /1 2 Q 1 /1 3 Q 1 /1 4 Q 1 /1 5 Q 1 /1 6 Net debt/NAV 40
• ”Loan-To-Values” based on above figures is low • Parent Companyʼs Financial Leverage is 24% => Sampoʼs position to refinance its debt is strong
Dividends Received by Payment Year
EURm
249 1,031 519 181 488 540 406 544 490 597 600 100 300 200 200 100 100 100 100 125 141 75 35 130 80 204 250 224 293 370 533 551 490 1,406 754 511 568 744 756 768 883 1,067 1,2200
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
If
Mandatum Life
Banking*
Sampo plc
*) Sampo Bank 2005-2006, Nordea 2007->
676
Reported Profits facilitates Debt Servicing
* Parent Company is not equal to Holding Segment; Dividend Income includes also dividends from Private Equity investments
747 -8 -37 702 762 -10 -70 683 773 -17 -20 737 879 -20 -26 832 1,069 -18 -1 1,050 1,226 -14 17 1,229
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
Dividend income
Operating
expenses
Net financial
expenses
Profit before taxes
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 * EURm 42 Q1/2016 Q1/2015 Dividends 676.3 636.2 Operating expenses -4.4 -6.6
Net financial expenses/income -8.6 2.07
Issued Debt Instruments
Sampo plc
EURm
Instrument & Principal
Coupon
Swap
Effective
Rate
Maturity
Senior Bond 500 EURm (EMTN) 4.2500% Euribor3M + 2.7910% 2.5900% 27.02.2017
Senior Bond 2,000 SEKm (EMTN) Stibor3M + 1.45% --- 1.0330% 29.05.2018
Senior Bond 500 EURm (EMTN) 1,1250% --- 1,1640% 24.05.2019
Senior Bond 2,000 SEKm (EMTN) Stibor3M + 0.77% --- 0.2560% 28.05.2020
Senior Bond 1,000 SEKm (EMTN) 1.2500% --- 1.2950% 28.05.2020
Senior Bond 500 EURm (EMTN) 1.5000% --- 1.5920% 16.09.2021
CPs issued 300 EURm Euribor + Margin 0.2800% Average 3M
Public debt 2,335 EURm 1.3509%
Private placements 148 EURm 1.5971%
Total 2,483 EURm 1.3656% 43 0 200 400 600 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Sampo plc Key Credit Considerations
Diversification through Insurance & Banking in the Nordic Region
Management with a proven Track Record in long-term Value Creation
Conservative Financial Profile, strong Capitalization and Liquidity
Stable Dividend Flows from Affiliated Companies with strong Brands
Bondholder Value Created
45
Sampo Group’s Outlook for 2016
• Sampo Group’s business areas are expected to report good operating
results for 2016.
• However, the mark-to-market results are, particularly in life insurance,
highly dependent on capital market developments. The continuing low
interest rate level also creates a challenging environment for
reinvestment in fixed income instruments.
• The P&C insurance operations are expected to reach a combined ratio
of 88-91 per cent excluding the release from the Swedish MTPL reserves.
• Nordea’s contribution to the Group’s profit is expected to be significant.
Fixed Income Investments in the Financial Sector
Exposure tables vs. Allocation tables – small differences.
Covered bonds Money market Long-term senior debt Long-term subordinated debt Total % Sweden 1,849 88 874 387 3,198 35% Finland 162 1,882 216 6 2,267 25% Norway 694 580 213 1,488 16% Denmark 218 306 22 546 6% United Kingdom 482 13 2 498 5% Switzerland 205 11 217 2%
the United States 6 195 1 202 2%
Canada 53 145 199 2% the Netherlands 198 198 2% France 23 61 14 98 1% Iceland 75 75 1% Other 78 12 78 0 168 2% Total 3,078 2,470 2,949 658 9,155 100% 47 Appendix
Public Sector Fixed Income Investments
EURm
Government
Government
guaranteed
Public sector,
other
Total
Sweden
196
810
1,006
Norway
243
243
Finland
54
74
128
Germany
11
69
80
Denmark
33
33
Japan
18
18
Total
207
156
1,144
1,507
Exposure tables vs. Allocation tables – small differences
Principles of Investment Management
• Company specific needs form the basis for all investments
– Liabilities intensively analysed and modelled.
– Regulatory requirements.
• Strategy
– Absolute Return targets taking into account the liabilities and general
business targets.
– Direct Investments into Nordic countries mainly, outside Nordics mainly Funds.
– No diversification for the sake of diversification.
• Centrally Managed
– Sampo plc Chief Investment Officer is responsible for all investments, all portfolio
managers have a direct reporting line to him.
– Common infrastructure for investment administration and reporting.
– Investment strategies coordinated and streamlined, no overlapping activities
to prevent Group-wide concentrations.
Appendix
Risk Management Principles
• Scope
– Sampo’s Board of Directors requires that all activities involving the exposure
of any Sampo Group company to risks, as well as activities controlling those
risks, are arranged to comply with these general guidelines and related
instructions as well as with applicable legislation and regulations
– The Board of Directors will supervise the risk taking and risk control activities
– The Principles apply to all Sampo Group companies
• The Key Objectives
– Balance between risks, capital and earnings
– Cost efficiency and high quality processes
– Strategic and operational flexibility
• The Central Tasks
– Identification of risks
– Assessment of required capital
– Pricing of risks
– Managing risk exposures, capital positions and operative processes
– Measuring and reporting risks
For more detailed description of Sampo Group´s Risk Management Principles, see http://www.sampo.com/governance/internal-control/risk-management/
Sampo’s P&C insurance
operations are merged with If 2002). Following the transaction, Sampo owns 38 per cent of If. If becomes fully owned by Sampo (2004). • Business areas:
P&C insurance, Long-term savings, Banking
Sampo Insurance Company and Leonia Bank merge into Sampo-Leonia Financial Group. • Business areas:
P&C insurance, Long-term savings (life insurance, asset management, mutual funds); Banking, Investment banking
Mandatum Bank is merged into Sampo-Leonia, and the Group’s name is shortened to Sampo.
Sampo divests Sampo Bank to Danske Bank.
• Business areas: P&C insurance,
Life insurance & Wealth Management Sampo’s Nordea holding exceeds 20%. • Nordea becomes an associated company. 2007 2004 2002 2001 2000 2010 2011
Sampo Group’s(If P&Cʼs) • Topdanmark holding exceeds 23%. Topdanmark becomes If´s associated company.
2012
Sampo Group (If P&C) acquires Tryg’s Finnish Business.
• If P&C signs a partnership agreement with Nordea.
Sampo Group ― Through Structural Changes
to the Leading Nordic Financial Group
2013 2014
Sampo Group
(Mandatum Life) acquires Suomi Mutualʼs With-Profit Group Pension portfolio.
2015 Appendix
2016
Financial Strength Rating History
If P&C Insurance Ltd (Sweden), If P&C Insurance Company Ltd (Finland),
Sampo plc
The Sampo Groupʼs P&C insurance companies became part of If in January 2002.
AA-/ A+/ A/ A-/ BBB+/ BBB/ 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 -16 P o ssi b le d o w n g ra d e Ja n 0 3 S ta b le F e b 0 2 N e g a ti ve A u g 0 2 S ta b le A p r 0 3 P o ssi b le u p g ra d e F e b 0 4 S ta b le M a y 0 4 P o si ti ve M a y 0 6 S ta b le N o v 0 8 Apr 04 First-time issuer rating Aa3 A1 A2 A3 Baa1 Baa2 52 P o si ti ve D e c 1 5 Moodyʼs If P&C S&P If P&C Moodyʼs Sampo plc S&P Sampo plc
If P&C Quarterly Results and C/R
EURm Q1/16 Q4/15 Q3/15 Q2/15 Q1/15 Q4/14 Q3/14 Q2/14 Q1/14 Q4/13 Q3/13 Q2/13 Q1/13 Premiums earned 1,059 1,077 1,087 1,103 1,076 1,108 1,124 1,122 1,104 1,112 1,139 1,140 1,115 Claims incurred -700 -764 -735 -864 -780 -776 -793 -783 -811 -791 -802 -800 -824 Operating expenses -179 -180 -176 -29 -180 -189 -183 -187 -186 -186 -191 -188 -190 Other technical income
and expenses -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1
Allocated investment return transferred from the non-technical account
5 2 5 7 9 5 7 10 15 12 16 17 20
Technical result 184 135 180 217 124 147 155 162 124 148 161 170 122
Investment result 40 75 68 99 84 81 75 139 88 104 89 115 102
Allocated investment return transferred to the technical account
-13 -11 -14 -17 -18 -16 -18 -21 -27 -25 -30 -31 -34
Other income and
expenses 4 5 11 11 10 8 16 9 9 3 6 15 14 Operating result 216 204 245 310 200 219 228 289 194 230 227 269 204 Risk ratio, % 60.7 65.2 61.9 72.7 66.6 64.4 64.7 64.0 67.5 65.1 64.7 64.2 67.7 Combined ratio, % 83.0 87.7 83.8 80.9 89.2 87.1 86.9 86.5 90.3 87.9 87.2 86.7 90.9 Appendix 53
If Solvency Capital & Ratio
*
54% 70% 88% 74% 71% 66% 77% 79% 72% 75% 81%82% 75% 79%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
%
EURm
Solvency capital (lhs)
Solvency ratio (rhs)
* Solvency ratio, (IFRS) % = + solvency capital
If P&C Reinsurance Programmes
If is using reinsurance to:
-
Utilize its own capital base efficiently and reduce cost of capital
-
Limit large fluctuations of underwriting results
-
Get access to reinsurers’ competence base
If has the following Reinsurance Programmes in place
• Largest & most diversified portfolio in the Nordics
• Focus purely on underwriting • Specialised Reinsurance Unit
• Reinsurance partners having reinsurance as core business • Relatively high retentions
• Stable reinsurance program • Efficient pricing and
broad terms Appendix In Millions Catastrophe/ Event Property/ Risk Casualty Personal
Accident Motor TPL Cargo Reporter
Capacity SEK 6,300 SEK 2,000/3,500 SEK 500/€50/$50 SEK 1,100 Unlimited SEK 850 Retention SEK 250 SEK 250 SEK 100/€10/$15 SEK 100 SEK 100 SEK 100
55 In Millions Marine Hull Reporter Small Vessels Clash Cover Marine Hull I.V. Reporter
Marine Hull War Risk Reporter
US Terrorism Risk
Capacity SEK 400 SEK 250 SEK 310 USD 60 USD 200 Retention SEK 100 SEK 100 SEK 100 USD 0,25 USD 25
Casualty/Cyber Event
SEK 400/€40/$50 SEK 200/€20/$25
17.7% 21.3% 20.1% 16.5% 7.9% 18.5% 25.8% 20.9% 27.7% 27.6% 22.9% 23.6% 19.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Mandatum Life Solvency Ratio*
• Solvency ratio,
% of technical provision, (IFRS) =
+ solvency capital
+ liabilities for insurance and investment contracts - reinsurers’ share of insurance liabilities
- 75% x technical provisions relating to Unit-linked insurance
x 100%
Nordea
Profitable & The Most Diversified Nordic Bank
8 8 5 8 8 3 8 4 7 7 8 1 8 3 3 8 1 8 8 3 2 5 9 2 8 7 8 7 3 0 96 0 1 ,0 7 1 1 ,0 0 3 9 4 9 5 6 6 1 ,0 2 9 1 ,0 3 7 1 ,0 9 9 9 2 2 1 ,0 5 9 1 ,0 4 1 1 ,0 4 8 1 ,0 2 1 1 ,0 0 6 1 ,1 0 6 9 3 5 1,1 2 6 1 ,1 5 7 1,4 0 8 1 ,2 3 5 1 ,0 3 3 1 ,0 2 7 1 ,0 0 6 2 1 36 8 9 320 3 5 6 4 2 5 3 5 8 3 4 7 2 6 1 2 4 5 2 0 7 16 6 2 4 2 11 8 11 2 2 6 3 2 1 8 217 2 5 4 2 4 4 1 9 8 1 8 6 1 7 1 1 8 0 15 8 1 3 5 11 2 1 2 9 1 2 2 1 0 3 11 2 1 4 2 11 1
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1 Q 0 8 2 Q 0 8 3 Q 0 8 4 Q 0 8 1 Q 0 9 2 Q 0 9 3 Q 0 9 4 Q 0 9 1 Q 1 0 2 Q 1 0 3 Q 1 0 4 Q 1 0 1 Q 1 1 2 Q 1 1 3 Q 1 1 4 Q 1 1 1 Q 1 2 2 Q 1 2 3 Q 1 2 4 Q 1 2 Q 1 1 3 Q 2 1 3 Q 3 1 3 Q 4 1 3 Q 1 1 4 Q 2 1 4 Q 3 1 4 Q 4 1 4 Q 1 1 5 Q 2 1 5 Q 3 1 5 Q 4 1 5 Q 1 1 6EURm Restructuring/impairment charges Loan losses Operating profit
Appendix
Nordea BV on Consolidated Balance Sheet
Nordea in Sampo Group’s B/S
EURm
Acquisition price
5,557.3
Retained earnings
1,804.2
Accumulated other changes in Nordea’s equity
-56.0
Share of Nordea’s net profit
166.2
Amortisation
-8.8
Deferred tax
1.9
Dividends
-550.7
Share of Nordea’s other comprehensive income
-24.4
Share of Nordea’s other changes in equity
4.3
Share of Nordea’s goodwill change
-5.1
Total
6,888.8
Figures Per Share
EUR Acquisition price 6.46 Book value 8.01 Market Value* 8.45 No. of shares 860,440,497 * As of 31/03/2016 58