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Demographic Breakdown. of Bedfordshire 10/2/2017

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Demographic Breakdown

of Bedfordshire

10/2/2017

This document provides information on both local and national statistics about mental health, alcohol and drug issues disabilities, ethnicities and religion.

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Page 1 of 16

Table of Contents

Mental Health ... 2

Prevalence of Neurotic Disorders in Bedfordshire ... 3

Prevalence of Personality Disorders in Bedfordshire ... 4

Prevalence of Psychotic Disorders in Bedfordshire ... 4

Prevalence of Eating Disorders in Bedfordshire ... 4

Prevalence of Postnatal Depression in Bedfordshire ... 5

Prevalence of Dementia in Bedfordshire ... 5

Alcohol issues ... 7

Alcohol consumption in Bedfordshire ... 7

Drug Issues ... 8

Substance misuse in Bedfordshire ... 8

Disabilities ... 11

Approximate number of people living with disabilities in Bedfordshire ... 11

Ethnicities in Bedfordshire ... 13

Religion ... 15

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Page 2 of 16

Mental Health

Expected number of cases for Bedfordshire as a whole for neurotic and personality disorders:

Neurotic Disorders Number of expected cases (2016)

Mixed anxiety and depressive disorder 28342

Generalised anxiety disorder 14659

Depressive episode 8407

All phobias 5678

Obsessive compulsive disorder 3578

Panic disorder 2350

Any neurotic disorder 53390

Personality Disorders Number of expected cases (2016) Obsessive compulsive personality disorder 3018

Avoidant 1962 Schizoid 2080 Paranoid 1724 Borderline 1706 Antisocial 1276 Dependent 219 Schizotypal 118

Any personality disorder 10565

Expected number of cases for Bedfordshire as a whole for other disorders and problems: Probable Psychotic Disorder Number of expected cases (2016)

Schizophrenia 618

Manic depression 618

Probable psychotic disorder 1237

Eating Disorders Number of expected cases (2016)

Anorexia Nervosa 370

Bulimia Nervosa 555

Postnatal Depression Number of expected cases (2016)

Postnatal depression 285

Puerperal psychosis 29

Dementia Number of expected cases (2016)

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Page 3 of 16 Prevalence of Neurotic Disorders in Bedfordshire

According to the ONS, 1 in 6 adults experience some sort of neurotic disorder, the most prevalent types being mixed anxiety and depression. This includes people with significant neurotic psychopathology who could not be coded into any of the other five neurotic disorders. Estimates of lifetime prevalence range from 1 in 6 to 1 in 4.

In Bedfordshire, the Mental Health Commissioning Service forecasted that there would be 53,390 cases of neurotic disorders in 2016.

The graph below illustrates an overall breakdown of the type of neurotic disorder in 2007, 2010, and 2016.

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Page 4 of 16 Prevalence of Personality Disorders in Bedfordshire

The MHCS forecasted that there would be 10,565 cases of any personality disorder in Bedfordshire alone.

An overall breakdown of the main types of personality disorder is presented below.

Prevalence of Psychotic Disorders in Bedfordshire

Most studies show a lifetime prevalence of schizophrenia of just under 1 per cent – and prevalence rates of between 2-4 per 1,000 population (0.2 – 0.4%) at any one time1. While prevalence rates are similar for men and women, age and gender are an important factor – rates peak for men earlier whilst women generally experience a later onset of the illness.

In Bedfordshire, the Mental Health Commissioning Service forecasted that there would be 1,237 cases of psychotic disorders in 2016.

The MHCS forecast was that Bedfordshire could expect 1,237 cases of probable psychotic disorder in 2016.

Prevalence of Eating Disorders in Bedfordshire

Current estimates suggest that up to 1% of women in the UK between the ages of 15 and 30 suffer from anorexia nervosa, and 1 to 2% suffer from bulimia nervosa. As many cases of eating disorder are unreported or undiagnosed, the actual figures are likely to be higher. The prevalence of eating disorders amongst young men is estimated at 10% of the female rate, but presentations to services are typically at even lower proportions.

It was forecasted that Bedfordshire, if typical of the country, could expect 370 cases of anorexia nervosa in 2016. The equivalent figures for bulimia nervosa were 555 cases in 2016.

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Page 5 of 16 Prevalence of Postnatal Depression in Bedfordshire

The most common form of postnatal disturbance is often referred to as the “baby blues” which is said to be experienced by at least half of western mothers. This usually lasts between 12-24 hours generally occurring between the third and fourth day after the birth but if untreated can last for months. An incidence figure of 10 per cent of all new mothers is most often quoted with other studies showing a figure between 3 per cent and 22 per cent. However, it is argued that about half of these cases will never come to medical attention. Puerperal psychosis is a severe and relatively rare form of postnatal depression affecting between 0.1 and 0.2% of all new mothers.

The number of live births by district is forecast to be:

District Live Births (2016) % Live Births (2016)

Bedford 1800 38%

Mid Bedfordshire 1300 27%

South Bedfordshire 1650 35%

Total 4750 100

In 2016, the projected level of pregnancies is likely to have generated 285 cases of postnatal depression. The equivalent numbers of puerperal psychosis amount to 28 and 29 annually.

Prevalence of Dementia in Bedfordshire

20% of people in the UK over the age of 80 and 6% over the age of 65 are affected by dementia. There are some 650,000 people with dementia known to health authorities in the UK. Over two thirds of them are diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease.

The MHCS predicted that Bedfordshire could expect 7,598 cases of dementia in 2016 and this figure is expected to rise each year. The forecasts for each local authority area are charted overleaf. Early onset dementia affects approximately 98 per 100,000 people aged 45-64. The MHCS estimated that there were 119 cases of people with early onset dementia living in Bedfordshire in 2016 and it is expected that this figure may continue to rise each year.

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Page 6 of 16 The

number of

cases of dementia is shown to rise across every district, however, Bedford is known to have the highest level. This can be explained by the fact that the population of Bedford is significantly larger.

District Dementia % Dementia Cases

Bedford 2950 39%

Mid Bedfordshire 2378 31%

South Bedfordshire 2270 30%

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Page 7 of 16

Alcohol issues

According to a report written Alcohol Concern UK (2017), 7% of adults in England regularly drink over the Chief Medical Officer’s low-risk guidelines, and 2.5 million people report drinking over 14 units on their heaviest drinking days. In 2015 there were 8,758 alcohol-related deaths (around 14 per 100,000 people) and the mortality rates are highest among people aged 55-64. Alcohol misuse is the biggest risk factor for death, ill-health and disability among 15-49 year-olds in the UK, and the fifth biggest risk factor across all ages. Additionally, there are an estimated 595,000 dependent drinkers, of whom only around 100,000 are currently accessing treatment.

Alcohol consumption in Bedfordshire

Mid 2009 synthetic estimate of the percentage within the drinking population (not including abstainers) aged 16 years and over who report engaging in lower risk drinking:

Area Percentage Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI

Luton 74.41 53.56 88.20

Bedford 72.88 51.05 86.39

Central Bedfordshire 72.87 49.92 85.92

Mid 2009 synthetic estimate of the percentage within the drinking population (not including abstainers) aged 16 years and over who report engaging in increasing risk drinking:

Area Percentage Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI

Luton 18.85 10.39 35.98

Bedford 20.52 11.11 38.14

Central Bedfordshire 20.57 10.96 39.54

Mid 2009 synthetic estimate of the percentage within the drinking population (not including abstainers) aged 16 years and over who report engaging in higher risk drinking:

Synthetic estimate of the percentage of the population aged 16 years and over who report engaging in binge drinking (2007-2008):

Area Percentage Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI

Luton 6.74 2.40 21.97

Bedford 6.60 2.44 20.73

Central Bedfordshire 6.56 2.23 20.91

Area Percentage Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI

Luton 13.5 11.7 15.5

Bedford 16.6 14.5 19.0

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Page 8 of 16

Drug Issues

In 2015, the Home Office released a statistical bulletin on drug misuse and here are the key findings: Around 1 in 12 (8.6%) adults aged 16 to 59 had taken an illicit drug in the last year. This equated to around 2.8 million people. This level of drug use was similar to the 2013/14 survey (8.8%), but significantly lower than a decade ago (11.2% in the 2004/05 survey).

Around 1 in 5 (19.4%) young adults aged 16 to 24 had taken an illicit drug in the last year. This proportion was more than double that of the wider age group, and equated to around 1.2 million people. This level of drug use was similar to the 2013/14 survey (19.0%), but significantly lower compared with a decade ago (26.5% in the 2004/05 survey).

The use of ecstasy in the last year increased among 16 to 24 year olds between the 2013/14 and 2014/15 surveys, from 3.9 per cent to 5.4 per cent. This is an increase of approximately 95,000 people.

Last year use of khat among 16 to 59 year olds has fallen to 0.04 per cent. This is a significant fall compared with the 2011/12 estimate of 0.2 per cent, when khat use was last measured by the CSEW. Khat was legal prior to June 2014, when it became controlled as a Class C drug.

Around 1 in 20 (4.7%) adults aged 16 to 59 had taken an illicit drug in the last month, while one in ten (10.2%) young adults aged 16 to 24 had done so. Neither proportion has changed significantly compared with the 2011/12 survey, when the questions on last month use were last asked. Just over one-third (34.7%) of adults aged 16 to 59 had taken drugs at some point during their lifetime. This is similar to the 2013/14 survey estimate (35.7%).

Substance misuse in Bedfordshire

Central Bedfordshire1: This is the only local council to provide full statistics on drug misuse in Bedfordshire.

Prevalence - Estimated Prevalence of Drug Misuse in Central Bedfordshire 2011/12

Rate per thousand

Central Bedfordshire 4.4

England 8.4

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Page 9 of 16

It can be seen that Central Bedfordshire has a significantly lower rate than England for drug misuse. However, this group still has a substantial impact on crime, health and associated social care needs and services.

Age Group - Central Bedfordshire’s age profile is slightly older when compared with England as a

whole. This would indicate that Central Bedfordshire has an ageing population in treatment which would correlate with the local anecdotal evidence that there is an ageing opiate population with a new generation of drug users opting to use non opiate drugs.

Gender - Central Bedfordshire has more females in drug treatment than England as a whole (31.4%

of individuals in treatment compared to 26.6% nationally). This could indicate that services in Central Bedfordshire are successful at engaging and retaining females in drug treatment and that

interventions are gender sympathetic. It is well documented nationally, however, that women are more likely to engage in treatment and to stay in treatment longer.

Ethnicity - Central Bedfordshire has a different ethnic group profile of substance misuse clients with

a higher proportion of white ethnicity compared to England. However, this is more representative of the resident population which has lower numbers of ethnic minorities compared to England. Distribution of Drug Misuse Clients by Ethnic Group 2012/13 Source: NDTMS Data Set

White Black/black British

Asian/Asian British

Mixed Other Missing/unknown

England 87.3% 3.0% 3.9% 2.6% 1.0% 2.2%

Central Bedfordshire

95.4% 0.7% 0.7% 2.1% 0.4% 0.7%

Housing problems - Around 75% of clients in substance misuse treatment have no accommodation

needs (new journeys) but this does not increase at the time of exiting treatment. However, numbers are small. Less people in Central Bedfordshire substance misuse treatment have a housing need when compared with England. This could indicate that there is effective support around housing needs in drug treatment.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Central Bedfordshire England

R ate p e r 1000

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Page 10 of 16

Prescription or over the counter drug use – Central Bedfordshire Council has a smaller proportion of

those in treatment that use prescribed or over the counter medication than Eastern England’s proportion. Central Bedfordshire’s proportion of those who are only using prescribed or over the counter medication is the same as Eastern England. However it is recognised nationally that the data collected around the misuse of prescription/over the counter drugs is not necessarily accurate. More work is needed to ascertain realistic levels of misuse - nationally there is a call for anonymous data to be collected in order to provide an accurate picture of the problem both nationally and locally. Use of over the counter/prescribed medications in all service users in treatment 2012/13

Cited no illicit POTC drug use Cited illicit POTC drug use Individuals in Treatment Proportion of all clients citing any use of POTC Proportion of clients citing no Illicit use of POTC drugs Eastern England 379 2344 16103 19.6% 2.4% Central Bedfordshire 10 25 417 8.4% 2.4%

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Page 11 of 16

Disabilities

In the East of England there are approximately 1.2 million (20%) people living with a disability. This is below the national average (21%).

Nationally, these are the impairment types reported by disabled people (2015/16): Type of disability Number of reported cases Percentage (%)

Mobility 7,000,000 52 Stamina/breathing/fatigue 5,100,000 38 Dexterity 3,700,000 27 Memory 2,100,000 16 Hearing 1,900,000 14 Vision 1,800,000 13 Learning 1,800,000 13 Social/behavioural 1,000,000 8 Other 2,000,000 15

*NB – percentages will not add up to 100% as respondents were able to select multiple answers

Approximate number of people living with disabilities in Bedfordshire

NB these are my own calculations based on the population of Bedfordshire and the national stats.

Type of disability Approximate number of people

Mobility 624,000 Stamina/breathing/fatigue 456,000 Dexterity 324,000 Memory 192,000 Hearing 168,000 Vision 156,000 Learning 156,000 Social/behavioural 96,000 Other 180,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 Nu m b er of r ep or te d cases Type of disability

Number of people living with disabilities

in the UK (2015/2016)

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Page 12 of 16 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 A p p ro xi m ate n u m b e r o f p e o p le Type of disability

Approximate number of people living

with disabilities in Bedfordshire (2016)

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Page 13 of 16

Ethnicities in Bedfordshire ( The 2021 census will be more relevant when

available)

Estimated resident population by ethnic group, figures in thousands2

Ethnicity Bedford Central Bedfordshir e Mid Bedfordshir e South Bedfordshir e Luton All groups 158 252.9 134.8 118.1 194.3 White British 122.4 219.2 118.3 100.9 115.5 White Irish 1.8 3.1 1.3 1.8 6.1

White: Other White 8.5 8.8 4.7 4.1 10.7

Mixed: White and

Black Caribbean 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.7 2.5

Mixed: White and

Black African 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.7

Mixed: White and

Asian 1 1.4 0.7 0.7 1.4

Mixed: Other Mixed 0.7 1 0.5 0.5 1.3

Asian: Indian 7.4 4.8 2.5 2.2 8.4

Asian: Pakistani 3.2 2.4 1 1.4 15.5

Asian: Bangladeshi 2.3 1 0.5 0.6 8

Asian: Other Asian 1.4 1.6 0.5 1.1 4.9

Black: Black Caribbean 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.6 6.8

Black: Black African 2.4 3.2 1.2 2 6.5

Black: Black Other

Black 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 1

Chinese 0.8 1.7 1.1 0.6 2.4

Other Ethnic Group 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.6 2.6

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Page 14 of 16 Ethnicities by age3:

Ethnicity % aged 0-15 % aged 16-64 % aged 65+

All Usual Residents 19.60% 64.80% 15.70%

White British 19.20% 64.40% 16.40%

White Irish 6.00% 64.90% 29.20%

White: Gypsy or Irish

Traveller 42.10% 51.90% 6.10%

White: Other White 13.80% 76.00% 10.10%

Mixed: White and

Black Caribbean 50.60% 45.60% 3.80%

Mixed: White and

Black African 56.70% 40.60% 2.70%

Mixed: White and

Asian 56.60% 40.10% 3.30%

Mixed: Other Mixed 44.40% 51.80% 3.80%

Asian: Indian 18.10% 75.10% 6.80%

Asian: Pakistani 33.00% 63.80% 3.20%

Asian: Bangladeshi 30.80% 67.80% 1.40%

Asian: Chinese 13.40% 78.10% 8.50%

Asian: Other Asian 18.70% 76.90% 4.30%

Black: Black African 28.70% 70.10% 1.30%

Black: Black Caribbean 15.30% 75.30% 9.40%

Black: Black Other

Black 30.60% 67.30% 2.10%

Other: Arab 30.30% 67.20% 2.50%

Other: Any Other

Ethnic Group 15.90% 80.10% 4.00%

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Page 15 of 16

Religion

According to the 2011 census, Christianity remains the largest religion in England and Wales, with 33.2 million people identifying themselves as Christian (59.3% of the population). This is followed by Islam, which has rapidly grown in the last decade, with 2.7 million people identifying themselves as Muslim (4.8% of the population). 14.1 million people, around a quarter of the population in England and Wales, reported they have no religion in 2011.

Between 2001 and 2011 there has been a decrease in people who identify as Christian (from 71.7 per cent to 59.3 per cent) and an increase in those reporting no religion (from 14.8 per cent to 25.1 per cent). There were increases in the other main religious group categories, with the number of Muslims increasing the most (from 3.0 per cent to 4.8 per cent).

In 2011, London was the most diverse region with the highest proportion of people identifying themselves as Muslim, Buddhist, Hindu and Jewish. The North East and North West had the highest proportion of Christians and Wales had the highest proportion of people reporting no religion. Minority religious groups, England and Wales, 2011:

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Page 16 of 16 Religion in Bedfordshire

Comparison of Census responses on religion between 2001 and 2011:

Religion 2011 2001 Number % % Christian 158,235 62.2 74.9 Buddhist 780 0.3 0.1 Hindu 1,670 0.7 0.4 Jewish 500 0.2 0.2 Muslim 1,930 0.8 0.3 Sikh 745 0.3 0.2 Other religion 888 0.3 0.2 No religion 72,335 28.4 16.9

Religion not stated 17,285 6.8 6.8

As you can see, the largest religion in Bedfordshire is Christianity. This is reflects the national statistics, however, there is a slightly higher percentage of Christians in Bedfordshire than the national average (62.2% and 59.3% respectively). Similarly, the next largest religion is Islam, followed by Hinduism. In contrast, there is a significantly higher percentage of Buddhists in Bedfordshire than the national average, making Buddhism the third largest religion in Bedfordshire. Bedfordshire also has a higher percentage of people identifying as ‘other religion’ than the national average.

References

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