O x f o r d R e s e a r c h

Full text

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O x f o r d R e s e a r c h

Falkoner allé 20 DK-2000 Frederiksberg Tlf.: 33 69 13 69 Fax: 33 69 13 33

E-mail: office@oxfordresearch.dk Hjemmeside: www.oxfordresearch.dk

Scenarios as a strategic tool

Challenges for the European

tourism sector

Presentation by

Jakob Stoumann, Senior analyst

Oxford Research

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-Agenda

1.

Background: A comprehensive

sectoral analysis of the EU Hotels &

restaurants sector

2.

Challenges for the European

tourism industry

3.

Scenarios as a strategic tool

4.

Summing up and

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-Background

In 2008-2009 Oxford Research carried out a comprehensive

mapping and analysis of the European Hotels and restaurant sector

for the European Commission

.

z

Focus was on drivers of change and emerging skills ad competencies

z

The study was carried out simultaneous with 17 other comprehensive sector

studies

z

All studies followed the same methodology: The European Foresight

Methodology. Qualitative scenario building is one of the main pillars of the

EFM

z

The studies formed part of the European Commission’s overall strategic goal

to identify trends and drivers of change in the European labour market in

order to enhance strategic human resource management

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-Challenges

Challenges for the European tourism industry

z

Heightened international

competition: Europe is lacking behind…

z

Lack of qualified labour

Weak focus un training and up-skilling

Need to up-date educational system

Poor working conditions and career possibilities

z

Sector characterised by a certain

level of inertia

Slow pace of innovation

Few players take in to account new mega

trends (e.g. health and climate concerns)

z

Lack of cooperation

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-Scenarios as a strategic tool

z

Scenarios can help giving relevant

tourism actors an idea of possible

developments of the future

z

The scenarios at the same time describe

different customer segments. All

segments are already present. The

question is what segments that will be

the dominating in the future?

z

Furthermore, the scenarios can be used

as a strategic tool by facilitating

discussions on which futures

(segments) a region should target, and

what products, services and skills this

would need…

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-The Scenario methodology

z

The general economic

development:

Continued economic growth and

globalisation or,

Economic recession and nationalism

z

The development of certain

consumer trends

Puritanism or,

Escapism

Two uncertain but very important drivers for the Hotels and

restaurants sector has been identified. Scenarios describe possible

developments until 2020

.

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-Crossing drivers of change

Puritanism

Consumers will develop

a more puritan and

spiritual approach to

consumption. The

personal responsibility

concerning for example

health, environment,

climate and fair trade is

taken very serious. Also

saving before spending

becomes more

important.

Economic recession and nationalism

A recession will influence the society for the

next 10-12 years. It will result in increased

nationalism and regionalism where regions

and nations turn their back to global

cooperation concentrating on their own lack of

resources.

Economic growth and globalisation

The ongoing economic crisis is just a minor

and short economic slow down. With such a

positive economic development increased

globalisation will follow.

Escapism

Consumption is typically

driven by the ‘faster,

better, bigger’ ideology.

Climate problems for

example are not seen as

a personal responsibility´.

The escapists are

concerned about health

and the fairness of the

world but tend to escape

via wellness and

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-The four scenarios

Economic recession and nationalism

Continued economic growth and globalisation

Scenario 1

The Marco

Polo Scenario

Scenario 1

The Marco

Polo Scenario

Scenario 2

The Sunny

Beach

Scenario

Scenario 2

The Sunny

Beach

Scenario

Puritanism

Scenario 3

The Body

Shop Scenario

Scenario 3

The Body

Shop Scenario

Scenario 4

The

Asceticism

Scenario

Scenario 4

The

Asceticism

Scenario

Escapism

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-The Marco Polo Scenario

Escapism

Economic growth

and globalisation

The Marco Polo Scenario

High individualisation

Some specialisation possibilities

Polarisation of the market

High growth in both inbound and

outbound tourism

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-The Sunny Beach Scenario

Escapism

Economic recession

and nationalism

The Sunny Beach Scenario

Mass produce, economies of scale

Highly price driven market

Conformity

Comfort – but no luxury

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-The Body Shop Scenario

Puritanism

Economic growth

and globalisation

The Body Shop Scenario

High individualisation

Many specialisation possibilities

Segmentation of the market

Healthy lifestyle and holidays

Goodness: volunteering, fair trade,

organic food, etc

.

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-The Asceticism Scenario

Puritanism

Economic recession

and nationalism

The Asceticism Scenario

Basic living – simple holidaying

‘Close-to-home’ tourism

Experiences: healthy, sustainable

and not expensive

Food: vegetarian, organic, local

produce, simple

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-Emerging Competences in the scenarios

Tasks and emerging competences

Main

occupational function

The Marco Polo Scenario The Sunny Beach Scenario The Body Shop Scenario The Asceticism Scenario

General

Management • Entrepreneurship• Knowledge about health, environment and climate • CSR

• Knowledge about ICT • International financial management

•Intercultural management

• International financial management

• Knowledge about ICT • Contract management • Rationalisation methods and techniques • Entrepreneurship • Project management • Multicultural management • International networking • Knowledge about ICT • Knowledge about health, environment and climate • CSR

• Knowledge about health, environment and climate • CSR

• Rationalisation methods and techniques

Marketing • International corporate branding

• Branding through ICT • Employer branding

• International corporate branding

• Branding through ICT

• Incorporating sustainability and CSR in corporate branding • Exploring new, individualised market segments

• Employer branding • Branding through ICT

• Employer branding

• Incorporating sustainability and CSR in branding

• Branding through ICT

R&D • Developing new, unique individualised hospitality experiences

• Developing and applying ICT and internet solutions

• Developing and applying

ICT and internet solutions • Developing new individualised hospitality experiences • Developing sustainable

resorts and healthy menus • Developing and applying ICT and internet solutions

• Developing sustainable resorts and healthy menus

Production/

service • Multi-skilling andflexibility

• ICT skills: using ICT and internet solutions

• Intercultural competences

• Multiskilling and lexibility • ICT skills: using ICT and internet solutions

• Language skills

• Intercultural competences • Cooperation and team spirit • Multiskilling and flexibility • Knowledge about health, nutrition, environment and

climate • ICT skills

• Multi-skilling and flexibility • Knowledge about health, nutrition, environment and climate

• ICT skills: using ICT and internet solutions

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-Employment trends

- in the Body Shop Scenario

z

Overall increase in the need for

labour as well as increase in

requirements to employees skills and

competencies.

z

New requirements to technical skills

and knowledge within health, nutrition,

environment, and climate as customers

demand in-depth information and

qualified guidance about health, climate

impact, authenticity of products, etc.

z

ICT skills will be important in most all functions – but especially within branding

and marketing, where interactive web solutions will be the main branding and

marketing channel. Managing the many specialised sub suppliers will also require

increased use of ICT within logistics.

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-Employment trends

- in the Body Shop Scenario

z

Soft skills e.g. social, cultural and

communicative skills will be very important as

customers expect highly individualised quality

services

z

Employees, even in basic production and service

functions, are to a certain degree expected to

be innovative, entrepreneurial, good team

workers as to be able to manage a much higher

degree of responsibility than they are today. This

is related to a rapid changing market that

demand flat and flexible company structures

z

At the management level CSR will become very important together with

entrepreneurial spirit and good international networking skills. Social

responsibility will matter a lot to customers and managers need to able to

manoeuvre in a fast changing niche market.

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-Employment trends

- in the Body Shop Scenario

Specific job functions that will emerge and/or increase:

z

An increasing number of dieticians, nutritionists, lifestyle experts and

environmental specialists will be employed in the sector. Some will be used

in research and development projects developing healthy food services and

sustainable holiday experiences. Others will be employed at the front service

level offering qualified guidance, information and activities to customers.

z

Chefs/cooks will be in high demand; customers

do not only want food experiences to be healthy, but

also tasteful, creative and, most important of all,

fresh. This might result in a serious skill gap, since

there already seems to be an emerging lack of

cooks today.

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-Scenarios’ common skills needs

z

extended service skills

Different lifestyles with increased focus on health, soundness and sustainability together with the increased expectation for high quality personalised services will require more knowledge and capabilities from the personnel in most of the

scenarios;

z

social and (inter)cultural skills

Also relates to the need for extended service skills, but includes cooperation ability, team spirit, self management, innovativeness, entrepreneurship, etc.;

z

skills within ICT and digitalisation

in all of the scenarios the sector will experience the increased use of ICT and digital and online solutions in most parts of the work organisation. Thus, ICT skills are transversal and ICT skills needs must be analysed in the context of the actual application, as a part of marketing, customer service, financial management, logistics, etc.;

z

financial management

Increased globalisation, competition, company concentration and squeezed profit margins are all processes that contribute to making financial management more and more important within the Hotels and restaurants sector. One ore several of these processes are present in most of the scenarios;

z

flexibility and multiskilling

In all of the scenarios, increased employee flexibility will be relevant in terms working hours and/or in relation to work tasks and employees qualifications, and

z

combinations of traditional hospitality skills with new specialised skills

t This is a trend prevalent in all of the scenarios, though the specific skills combinations vary. The catering industry, as an example, already today increasingly needs cooks that also have a certain level of management and administration skills in order to fill out the complex role as site managers. In general, most of the scenarios suggest an increase in new complex and highly interdisciplinary occupations and skills needs

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-Recommendations from the study

Europe can’t compete (only) on price – in the

long run!

z

Sunny Beach is the easy, but short sighted, way

to go

Instead:

z

High end / luxury market (the ‘Marco Polos’)

z

Niches and specialisation (the ‘Body Shoppers’

and Marco Polos)

z

Sustainable tourism - for all (the Ascetics and

the Body Shoppers)

z

Close-to-home tourism (Ascetics)

z

Uniqueness and value for money (all)

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-More strategic planning is needed!

z

Segmentation and innovation:

Find your uniqueness,

Which target group(s) and which niches?

Invent specialised offers, services and experiences

z

Which competencies, resources, measures etc. will be needed?

Multilevel cooperation is needed!

z

Destination building and innovation --› Clustering and networking

z

Upskilling and training --› Social dialogue

z

Up-to-date education --› cooperation between industry and education

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-Denmark

Oxford Research A/S

Falkoner Allé 20, 4. sal

2000 Frederiksberg C

Danmark

Phone: (+45) 33 69 13 69

Fax: (+45) 33 69 13 33

office@oxfordresearch.dk

www.oxfordresearch.dk

Norway

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4630 Kristiansand

Norge

Phone: (+47) 40 00 57 93

post@oxford.no

www.oxford.no

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Telefon: (+46) 8 24 07 00

office@oxfordresearch.se

www.oxfordresearch.se

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