How To Understand The History Of The Open Source Community

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O Estado do Mercado Open Source

Encontro Nacional sobre Tecnologia Aberta

30 de Setembro – Lispólis, Pólo Tecnológico de Lisboa

Gabriel Coimbra

Integrated Marketing Products Director, IDC Iberia

Research / Consulting / Events / Go-to-Market Services gcoimbra@idc.com

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Agenda

Níveis de utilização do OSS

Serviços para OSS

Intenções de investimento

Sep-10 © IDC

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Quais os níveis de

utilização do OSS?

Quais os níveis de

utilização do OSS?

Sep-10 © IDC

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Sep-10 © IDC

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Sep-10 © IDC

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Sep-10 © IDC

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Top OSS Projects by Organization

Type (% of Project Mentions )

Top OSS Projects by Organization

Type (% of Project Mentions )

Sep-10 © IDC

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Top OSS Projects by Organization

Size (% of Project Mentions )

Top OSS Projects by Organization

Size (% of Project Mentions )

Sep-10 © IDC

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Sep-10 © IDC

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Sep-10 © IDC

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Como são os projectos

OSS suportados?

Como são os projectos

OSS suportados?

Sep-10 © IDC

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Sep-10 © IDC

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Sep-10 © IDC

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Sep-10 © IDC

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Quais a perspectivas

de evolução?

Quais a perspectivas

de evolução?

Sep-10 © IDC

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Sep-10 © IDC

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Sep-10 © IDC

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Quais as tendências

específicas do Linux?

Quais as tendências

específicas do Linux?

Sep-10 © IDC

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Worldwide Shipments and Subscriptions

Looking at the industry holistically

Worldwide Shipments and Subscriptions

Looking at the industry holistically

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

_Windows Unix Other Host/Server OS/400 NetWare Mainframe Linux

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Sep-10

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Linux Server OS vs. Unix Server OS

Worldwide Shipments/Subscriptions/Deployments

Linux Server OS vs. Unix Server OS

Worldwide Shipments/Subscriptions/Deployments

Observations:

Unix growth has been stagnant or declining since peaking in 2000

Linux growth has ramped up and continues to grow far beyond what Unix ever was

2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 S u b scr ip ti o n s/ D e p lo y m e n ts (0 0 0 ) Sep-10

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 Unix Linux

Source: IDC, 2009

S u b scr ip ti o n s/ D e p lo y m e n ts (0 0 0 )

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Linux Server OS vs. Unix Server OS

Worldwide Installed Base

Linux Server OS vs. Unix Server OS

Worldwide Installed Base

Observations:

Life expectancy of Linux has increased over the past 5 years

Unix has been negatively impacted by Windows as well

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 S u b scr ip ti o n s/ D e p lo y m e n ts (0 0 0 ) Sep-10

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 Unix Linux

Source: IDC, 2009

S u b scr ip ti o n s/ D e p lo y m e n ts (0 0 0 )

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Qual a dimensão do

ecossitema Linux?

Qual a dimensão do

ecossitema Linux?

Sep-10 © IDC

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Evolution of Linux Servers by Workload

Worldwide Linux Server Shipments, 2002-2007 (% of shipment total)

Evolution of Linux Servers by Workload

Worldwide Linux Server Shipments, 2002-2007 (% of shipment total)

80% 100%

Other

Industrial R&D Web Infrastructure

• Business Processing: 3% to 11% of total

• Decision Support: 6.3% to 10.8% of total

• Web/infrastructure stays at 50% of total

• Nonpaid likely impacts some segments

Sep-10

0% 20% 40% 60%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

IT Infrastructure Collaborative Application Development Decision Support Business Processing

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The Linux & Open Source Ecosystem

Worldwide revenues for hardware, packaged software and services aboard Linux

The Linux & Open Source Ecosystem

Worldwide revenues for hardware, packaged software and services aboard Linux

25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 R e v e n u e ( $ M )

Linux and Open Source Services

Linux Server Hardware*

Application Software

App Development & Deployment Software

Sep-10

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 R e v e n u e ( $ M )

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Deployment Software Linux Operating System

System Infrastructure Software (excl. OS)

What’s missing from this picture?

Open source software used on Unix & Windows (Such as JBoss on Windows, MySQL on Solaris, etc.)

PC hardware-related revenue

Source: IDC, October 2009

2008-2013 CAGRs: Software: 23.2% Hardware: 1.7% Services: 17%

*Note: Linux server hardware excludes OS revenue

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The Linux Ecosystem

2008-2013 CAGRs

The Linux Ecosystem

2008-2013 CAGRs

Solid revenue growth for the Linux ecosystem

Worldwide 2008-2013 Software CAGRs led by:

– Application software: 27.4%

• Includes ERP, CRM, supply chain management, manufacturing applications, and engineering application software

– Application development & deployment software: 20.5%

• Includes database, middleware, dev tools, dev life-cycle products,

Sep-10

• Includes database, middleware, dev tools, dev life-cycle products, app deployment software/application

serving/transaction/middleware and data analysis software

– System infrastructure software: 21.3%

• Includes Systems mgmt, virtualization software, storage, security

Linux and open source-related services 2008-2013 CAGR: 17.6%

• Systems integration, software deployment and support, outsourcing, education and training and consulting

Linux server hardware 2008-2013 CAGR: 1.7%

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The Realities of Today’s Market

Worldwide Y-Y Software Revenue Growth by Platform

The Realities of Today’s Market

Worldwide Y-Y Software Revenue Growth by Platform

20.0% 30.0% 40.0%

50.0% • Y-over-Y growth dips in 2008/2009 for all platforms

• Linux growth dips early, but still retains the highest rate • Unix software spending growth not expected to recover

Sep-10

-10.0% 0.0% 10.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Linux and Linux-related Software Unix and Unix-related Software

Windows and Windows-Related Software Overall Market

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Sep-10 © IDC

Gabriel Coimbra

Integrated Marketing Products Director, IDC Iberia Research / Consulting / Events / Go-to-Market Services

Mobile: +351 91 985 4722

Email: gcoimbra@idc.com

www.idc.com/spain www.idc.com/portugal