ONLINE APPENDIX FOR
“CHOOSING TO TARGET:
WHAT TYPES OF COUNTRIES GET DIFFERENT TYPES OF WORLD BANK PROJECTS”
I. Summary Statistics for TSCS Analysis
Variable | Mean Std. Dev. Min Max | Observations ---+---+--- Outcome Variables
log(total commit amount + 1)
Source: World Bank Projects Database; author’s coding
World Bank
logcom~t overall | 11.62325 8.790209 0 22.3327 | N = 1024 between | 5.896312 0 21.19455 | n = 128 within | 6.53752 -6.120138 28.48435 | T = 8 IDA
logcom~t overall | 11.77527 8.519429 0 21.66144 | N = 592 between | 5.489892 1.883534 21.19455 | n = 74 within | 6.542074 -5.584241 27.89337 | T = 8 IBRD
logcom~t overall | 11.41492 9.154174 0 22.3327 | N = 432 between | 6.459089 0 21.00199 | n = 54 within | 6.538857 -6.328467 28.27602 | T = 8
Key Explanatory Variables
average of governance matters indicators
Source: World Governance Indicators; author’s calculation
World Bank
gmavg overall | -.3604862 .6303998 -2.269874 1.314368 | N = 936 between | .633971 -2.043701 1.287106 | n = 126 within | .1225129 -1.048448 .2057565 | T-bar = 7.42857 IDA
gmavg overall | -.6070239 .5366234 -2.269874 .6209036 | N = 518 between | .5586514 -2.043701 .5657182 | n = 73 within | .1272106 -1.198847 -.0407811 | T-bar = 7.09589 IBRD
gmavg overall | -.0549682 .6041302 -1.435044 1.314368 | N = 418 between | .6046536 -1.31695 1.287106 | n = 53 within | .1165802 -.7429304 .4407938 | T-bar = 7.88679
voice and accountability
Source: World Governance Indicators
World Bank
voice overall | -.2544452 .8121848 -2.016079 1.480579 | N = 1024 between | .7968073 -1.835492 1.374332 | n = 128 within | .1705481 -.9761461 .5180624 | T = 8 IDA
voice overall | -.4931041 .7440824 -2.016079 1.234158 | N = 592 between | .7234176 -1.835492 1.11655 | n = 74 within | .191113 -1.214805 .2794035 | T = 8 IBRD
Variable | Mean Std. Dev. Min Max | Observations ---+---+---
political stability
Source: World Governance Indicators
World Bank
polstab overall | -.3390877 .883871 -3.076234 1.278692 | N = 1005 between | .8402757 -2.441484 1.118894 | n = 126 within | .2830226 -1.482163 .6893835 | T-bar = 7.97619 IDA
polstab overall | -.5068862 .9448463 -3.076234 1.255914 | N = 581 between | .8955967 -2.441484 1.118894 | n = 73 within | .3185035 -1.649961 .521585 | T-bar = 7.9589 IBRD
polstab overall | -.1091563 .7338358 -2.444799 1.278692 | N = 424 between | .7040532 -2.1713 1.054885 | n = 53 within | .2258916 -1.01841 .4523203 | T = 8
government effectiveness
Source: World Governance Indicators
World Bank
goveff~t overall | -.3767499 .6180443 -2.268776 1.491157 | N = 1018 between | .6026474 -1.99254 1.432339 | n = 128 within | .1910689 -1.275262 .2245294 | T-bar = 7.95313 IDA
goveff~t overall | -.6165215 .5048076 -2.268776 .9571885 | N = 589 between | .4779873 -1.99254 .5205518 | n = 74 within | .1937124 -1.515034 -.0152421 | T-bar = 7.95946 IBRD
goveff~t overall | -.047553 .6081208 -1.558139 1.491157 | N = 429 between | .5942732 -1.397926 1.432339 | n = 54 within | .1876038 -.7675682 .4784165 | T-bar = 7.94444
regulatory quality
Source: World Governance Indicators
World Bank
regqual overall | -.2443507 .7680381 -2.992334 1.476519 | N = 1021 between | .7375954 -2.479299 1.3608 | n = 128 within | .243645 -1.578119 .7929894 | T-bar = 7.97656 IDA
regqual overall | -.5221601 .6297305 -2.992334 .826835 | N = 589 between | .585208 -2.479299 .5344673 | n = 74 within | .2664145 -1.516978 .5151799 | T-bar = 7.95946 IBRD
regqual overall | .1344219 .7782816 -2.707483 1.476519 | N = 432 between | .7558739 -2.355607 1.3608 | n = 54 within | .2089409 -1.199347 1.138988 | T = 8
rule of law
Source: World Governance Indicators
World Bank
rulelaw overall | -.4440698 .664486 -2.091698 1.394998 | N = 991 between | .6412195 -2.004488 1.18196 | n = 128 within | .1842864 -1.528768 .304075 | T-bar = 7.74219 IDA
Variable | Mean Std. Dev. Min Max | Observations ---+---+---
IBRD
rulelaw overall | -.1340967 .6295213 -1.413558 1.394998 | N = 429 between | .6114992 -1.194382 1.18196 | n = 54 within | .1626422 -1.197477 .4425285 | T-bar = 7.94444
control of corruption
Source: World Governance Indicators
World Bank
corrup~l overall | -.4329877 .6057637 -2.084053 1.471122 | N = 946 between | .5942281 -1.797883 1.385959 | n = 128 within | .1754031 -1.02689 .3377044 | T-bar = 7.39063 IDA
corrup~l overall | -.6365125 .5128877 -2.084053 .7287752 | N = 523 between | .5122122 -1.797883 .6707317 | n = 74 within | .1886709 -1.230415 .1341795 | T-bar = 7.06757 IBRD
corrup~l overall | -.1813482 .617678 -1.517674 1.471122 | N = 423 between | .6107494 -1.217065 1.385959 | n = 54 within | .1576834 -.6970493 .3199255 | T-bar = 7.83333
Freedom House index (reversed and standardized) Source: Freedom House
World Bank
z_fh overall | -5.46e-10 1 -1.852115 1.643859 | N = 1024 between | .9694484 -1.852115 1.643859 | n = 128 within | .258071 -1.056075 1.347407 | T = 8 IDA
z_fh overall | -.2532385 .9373353 -1.852115 1.643859 | N = 592 between | .9005322 -1.779282 1.643859 | n = 74 within | .277929 -1.309314 1.094168 | T = 8 IBRD
z_fh overall | .3470305 .9797938 -1.852115 1.643859 | N = 432 between | .9606371 -1.852115 1.643859 | n = 54 within | .2283856 -.6726285 1.293857 | T = 8
PolityIV index (standardized) Source: Polity IV
World Bank
z_polity overall | -8.84e-10 1 -2.098113 1.246705 | N = 902 between | .9407554 -2.098113 1.246705 | n = 113 within | .3524763 -1.672409 1.588789 | T = 7.9823 IDA
z_polity overall | -.2951096 .9102047 -2.098113 1.246705 | N = 502 between | .8197514 -2.098113 1.2258 | n = 63 within | .4099416 -1.967519 1.293679 | T = 7.96825 IBRD
z_polity overall | .3703626 .9852913 -1.930872 1.246705 | N = 400 between | .9577863 -1.930872 1.246705 | n = 50 within | .2637011 -.7585136 1.603764 | T = 8
Corruption Perceptions Index (standardized) Source: Transparency International
World Bank
Variable | Mean Std. Dev. Min Max | Observations ---+---+---
IDA
z_ti overall | -.6848664 .5886713 -2.427001 .7213274 | N = 135 between | .5590027 -1.703155 .7213274 | n = 35 within | .299283 -1.674341 .1170155 | T-bar = 3.85714 IBRD
z_ti overall | .3597547 .9842152 -1.539011 3.659767 | N = 257 between | .922686 -1.35065 2.990747 | n = 45 within | .3049585 -.4969538 1.839065 | T-bar = 5.71111
Other Covariates
log(GDP per capita $US2000)
Source: World Development Indicators
World Bank
loggdppc overall | 6.858418 1.13751 4.408648 9.38729 | N = 997 between | 1.137329 4.571552 9.236009 | n = 125 within | .084232 5.989431 7.153283 | T-bar = 7.976 IDA
loggdppc overall | 6.166542 .8569204 4.408648 8.38789 | N = 575 between | .856906 4.571552 8.334295 | n = 72 within | .0881765 5.297555 6.461407 | T-bar = 7.98611 IBRD
loggdppc overall | 7.801139 .7178903 6.116533 9.38729 | N = 422 between | .7255504 6.276595 9.236009 | n = 53 within | .0786425 7.539295 8.067507 | T = 7.96226
log(investment/GDP)
Source: Penn World Tables 6.2
World Bank
loginv~t overall | 2.36139 .5942452 -1.883603 3.84799 | N = 1013 between | .5601992 .7731543 3.659894 | n = 128 within | .2141109 -.2953672 3.564145 | T = 7.91406 IDA
loginv~t overall | 2.171649 .6121812 -1.883603 3.84799 | N = 581 between | .5699855 .7731543 3.659894 | n = 74 within | .2402633 -.485108 3.374404 | T = 7.85135 IBRD
loginv~t overall | 2.616574 .4593765 1.159563 3.760387 | N = 432 between | .4290189 1.476625 3.573173 | n = 54 within | .1730862 1.908737 3.13469 | T = 8
log(external debt/GNI)
Source: World Development Indicators
World Bank
logdeb~i overall | -.5080343 .6883416 -2.795256 1.655573 | N = 946 between | .6426359 -2.173211 1.353574 | n = 120 within | .2458996 -2.023611 .7280359 | T-bar = 7.88333 IDA
logdeb~i overall | -.2802272 .6774668 -2.795256 1.655573 | N = 564 between | .6400294 -1.681344 1.353574 | n = 72 within | .2240381 -1.613084 .955843 | T-bar = 7.83333 IBRD
Variable | Mean Std. Dev. Min Max | Observations ---+---+---
participation in an IMF program Source: Dreher (2006)
World Bank
imf overall | .4677734 .4992042 0 1 | N = 1024 between | .3722822 0 1 | n = 128 within | .3340047 -.4072266 1.342773 | T = 8 IDA
imf overall | .5456081 .4983366 0 1 | N = 592 between | .3687112 0 1 | n = 74 within | .3376414 -.3293919 1.420608 | T = 8 IBRD
imf overall | .3611111 .4808796 0 1 | N = 432 between | .3532753 0 1 | n = 54 within | .3293458 -.5138889 1.236111 | T = 8
log(population)
Source: World Development Indicators
World Bank
logpop overall | 15.70872 1.91838 10.59988 20.97044 | N = 1016 between | 1.92443 10.66186 20.94251 | n = 127 within | .0478756 15.45842 15.91819 | T = 8 IDA
logpop overall | 15.38659 1.927802 11.17155 20.77076 | N = 584 between | 1.938678 11.18099 20.71305 | n = 73 within | .055451 15.1363 15.59606 | T = 8 IBRD
logpop overall | 16.14418 1.819074 10.59988 20.97044 | N = 432 between | 1.833685 10.66186 20.94251 | n = 54 within | .0351938 16.04208 16.24497 | T = 8
log(land area)
Source: World Development Indicators
World Bank
logarea overall | 11.73451 2.290733 5.703783 16.61209 | N = 1024 between | 2.29861 5.703783 16.61163 | n = 128 within | .0020044 11.70472 11.7517 | T = 8 IDA
logarea overall | 11.42325 2.290819 5.703783 14.90515 | N = 592 between | 2.304506 5.703783 14.90515 | n = 74 within | .0026146 11.39346 11.44045 | T = 8 IBRD
logarea overall | 12.16104 2.223436 5.886104 16.61209 | N = 432 between | 2.241715 5.886104 16.61163 | n = 54 within | .0004028 12.15962 12.16657 | T = 8
ongoing civil war
Source: UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset
World Bank
civilwar overall | .1816406 .3857365 0 1 | N = 1024 between | .3214216 0 1 | n = 128 within | .2149132 -.6933594 1.056641 | T = 8 IDA
Variable | Mean Std. Dev. Min Max | Observations ---+---+---
IBRD
civilwar overall | .1388889 .3462315 0 1 | N = 432 between | .3068274 0 1 | n = 54 within | .1651126 -.6111111 1.013889 | T = 8
log(people affected by disaster + 1)
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
World Bank
logdis~r overall | 5.949668 5.635295 0 19.65039 | N = 1024 between | 4.078439 0 18.26684 | n = 128 within | 3.903422 -6.705635 18.76704 | T = 8 IDA
logdis~r overall | 6.085327 5.579582 0 19.65039 | N = 592 between | 3.853541 0 17.6436 | n = 74 within | 4.056827 -5.253352 18.90269 | T = 8 IBRD
logdis~r overall | 5.763765 5.71201 0 19.46889 | N = 432 between | 4.398141 0 18.26684 | n = 54 within | 3.68749 -6.891538 15.2029 | T = 8
federalism (meaningful sub-national authority) Source: Database of Political Institutions
World Bank
author overall | .1025391 .3035041 0 1 | N = 1024 between | .2982204 0 1 | n = 128 within | .0615457 -.6474609 .9775391 | T = 8 IDA
author overall | .0827703 .2757677 0 1 | N = 592 between | .2651869 0 1 | n = 74 within | .0809734 -.6672297 .9577703 | T = 8 IBRD
author overall | .1296296 .3362849 0 1 | N = 432 between | .3390495 0 1 | n = 54 within | 0 .1296296 .1296296 | T = 8
plurality electoral rules
Source: Database of Political Institutions
World Bank
pluralty overall | .6586387 .4744148 0 1 | N = 955 between | .4563907 0 1 | n = 121 within | .1305126 -.2163613 1.283639 | T-bar = 7.89256 IDA
pluralty overall | .7118644 .4533216 0 1 | N = 531 between | .4315966 0 1 | n = 68 within | .1382164 -.1631356 1.336864 | T-bar = 7.80882 IBRD
Variable | Mean Std. Dev. Min Max | Observations ---+---+---
Political Influence Variables
log(U.S. military assistance + 1)
Source: U.S. Agency for International Development, U.S. Greenbook
World Bank
logusmil overall | 10.97021 5.720497 0 21.04092 | N = 1024 between | 4.712283 0 21.00535 | n = 128 within | 3.266561 -3.805983 26.83891 | T = 8 IDA
logusmil overall | 9.576955 6.034303 0 21.04092 | N = 592 between | 4.638376 0 21.00535 | n = 74 within | 3.892698 -5.199235 25.44566 | T = 8 IBRD
logusmil overall | 12.87948 4.628377 0 19.88509 | N = 432 between | 4.141503 0 18.3716 | n = 54 within | 2.132696 2.927275 22.12068 | T = 8
log(U.S. trade + 1) Source: SourceOECD
World Bank
logust~e overall | 19.19246 2.96501 0 25.77015 | N = 976 between | 2.933538 0 25.28427 | n = 122 within | .4974157 13.63099 22.13962 | T = 8 IDA
logust~e overall | 18.03799 2.923703 0 23.5295 | N = 592 between | 2.902206 0 23.24806 | n = 74 within | .474345 15.68122 20.55448 | T = 8 IBRD
logust~e overall | 20.97226 1.988354 10.93262 25.77015 | N = 384 between | 1.933709 16.49409 25.28427 | n = 48 within | .5316605 15.41079 23.91942 | T = 8
log(OECD trade + 1) Source: SourceOECD
World Bank
logoec~e overall | 21.47221 2.029456 16.40569 26.83726 | N = 1024 between | 2.024241 16.87518 26.39729 | n = 128 within | .2217614 19.52011 22.4844 | T = 8 IDA
logoec~e overall | 20.34741 1.514364 16.40569 24.72204 | N = 592 between | 1.502583 16.87518 24.57526 | n = 74 within | .2495671 18.39531 21.3596 | T = 8 IBRD
logoec~e overall | 23.0136 1.584962 18.58786 26.83726 | N = 432 between | 1.587998 18.81178 26.39729 | n = 54 within | .1769786 22.26394 23.62138 | T = 8
U.N. voting with U.S., moving average Source: Dreher and Sturm (2006)
World Bank
Variable | Mean Std. Dev. Min Max | Observations ---+---+---
IDA
inl~ausa overall | .1773801 .0715473 0 .3809269 | N = 566 between | .0637996 .0146175 .3629475 | n = 73 within | .0361959 .0614568 .3630341 | T-bar = 7.75342 IBRD
inl~ausa overall | .2494852 .0914002 .0576888 .4607117 | N = 423 between | .0872271 .0965385 .4328907 | n = 54 within | .0318789 .1628904 .309614 | T-bar = 7.83333
average U.N. voting with G7 countries, moving average Source: Dreher and Sturm (2006)
World Bank
inli~ag7 overall | .4672582 .1623396 0 .8964989 | N = 989 between | .1548822 .0460676 .8430135 | n = 127 within | .058888 .2575776 .9448799 | T-bar = 7.7874 IDA
inli~ag7 overall | .4095325 .1409693 0 .8103782 | N = 566 between | .1311552 .0460676 .7723714 | n = 73 within | .062215 .1998519 .8871543 | T-bar = 7.75342 IBRD
inli~ag7 overall | .5444987 .1569881 .0950312 .8964989 | N = 423 between | .1522014 .1691502 .8430135 | n = 54 within | .0541902 .3428518 .7747986 | T-bar = 7.83333
U.N. Security Council temporary membership Source: Dreher, Sturm and Vreeland (2009)
World Bank
unscro~e overall | .0517578 .2216459 0 1 | N = 1024 between | .0998613 0 .375 | n = 128 within | .1980477 -.3232422 .9267578 | T = 8 IDA
unscro~e overall | .0304054 .1718453 0 1 | N = 592 between | .0768906 0 .25 | n = 74 within | .1539112 -.2195946 .9054054 | T = 8 IBRD
unscro~e overall | .0810185 .2731799 0 1 | N = 432 between | .1193472 0 .375 | n = 54 within | .2462008 -.2939815 .9560185 | T = 8
log(OECD migrants + 1) Source: SourceOECD
World Bank
logoec~s overall | 10.56509 1.890899 5.613128 15.78348 | N = 1024 between | 1.897401 5.613128 15.78348 | n = 128 within | 0 10.56509 10.56509 | T = 8 IDA
logoec~s overall | 9.964578 1.783609 5.613128 13.68556 | N = 592 between | 1.794267 5.613128 13.68556 | n = 74 within | 0 9.964578 9.964578 | T = 8 IBRD
Variable | Mean Std. Dev. Min Max | Observations ---+---+---
former DAC-member colony
Source: Issue Correlates of War Colonial History Dataset
World Bank
daccol overall | .5859375 .4928001 0 1 | N = 1024 between | .4944948 0 1 | n = 128 within | 0 .5859375 .5859375 | T = 8 IDA
daccol overall | .7027027 .457455 0 1 | N = 592 between | .4601885 0 1 | n = 74 within | 0 .7027027 .7027027 | T = 8 IBRD
daccol overall | .4259259 .4950559 0 1 | N = 432 between | .4991257 0 1 | n = 54 within | 0 .4259259 .4259259 | T = 8
log(oil production + 1)
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2008)
World Bank
logoil overall | 3.00323 5.583129 0 15.85647 | N = 1024 between | 5.601955 0 15.68936 | n = 128 within | .0644909 2.513447 3.48908 | T = 8 IDA
logoil overall | 1.412292 4.071065 0 14.65535 | N = 592 between | 4.09507 0 14.58136 | n = 74 within | .0509424 .9225094 1.748377 | T = 8 IBRD
logoil overall | 5.183404 6.558946 0 15.85647 | N = 432 between | 6.612381 0 15.68936 | n = 54 within | .0794561 4.759936 5.669254 | T = 8
II. Summary Statistics for Cross-Sectional Models
Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max ---+---
Outcome Variables
proportion programmatic
Source: World Bank Projects Database; author’s coding
World Bank
pct_prog4 | 127 .2940907 .2511559 0 .9931896 IDA
pct_prog4 | 74 .2792067 .2245002 0 .75 IBRD
pct_prog4 | 53 .3148722 .285195 0 .9931896
proportion national
Source: World Bank Projects Database; author’s coding
World Bank
pct_natl5 | 127 .7495713 .2402901 0 1 IDA
pct_natl5 | 74 .8129176 .2038719 .1528755 1 IBRD
Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max ---+---
proportion programmatic (including sub-national structural adjustment programs) Source: World Bank Projects Database; author’s coding
World Bank
pct_prog3 | 127 .2973988 .2544005 0 .9931896 IDA
pct_prog3 | 74 .2818199 .2276183 0 .7934285 IBRD
pct_prog3 | 53 .3191504 .2885475 0 .9931896
proportion national (expansive definition of sub-national projects) Source: World Bank Projects Database; author’s coding
World Bank
pct_natl1 | 127 .7555173 .2395178 0 1 IDA
pct_natl1 | 74 .8187949 .2023346 .1618266 1 IBRD
pct_natl1 | 53 .6671674 .2605428 0 1
Key Explanatory Variables
average of governance matters indicators
Source: World Governance Indicators; author’s calculation
World Bank
gmavg | 126 -.3529797 .633971 -2.043701 1.287106 IDA
gmavg | 73 -.5776208 .5586514 -2.043701 .5657182 IBRD
gmavg | 53 -.0435683 .6046536 -1.31695 1.287106
voice and accountability
Source: World Governance Indicators
World Bank
voice | 128 -.2544452 .7968073 -1.835492 1.374332 IDA
voice | 74 -.4931041 .7234176 -1.835492 1.11655 IBRD
voice | 54 .0726059 .7823328 -1.749494 1.374332
political stability
Source: World Governance Indicators
World Bank
polstab | 126 -.3365748 .8402757 -2.441484 1.118894 IDA
polstab | 73 -.5016868 .8955967 -2.441484 1.118894 IBRD
polstab | 53 -.1091563 .7040532 -2.1713 1.054885
government effectiveness
Source: World Governance Indicators
World Bank
goveffect | 128 -.3761836 .6026474 -1.99254 1.432339 IDA
Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max ---+---
IBRD
goveffect | 54 -.037276 .5942732 -1.397926 1.432339
regulatory quality
Source: World Governance Indicators
World Bank
regqual | 128 -.2501254 .7375954 -2.479299 1.3608 IDA
regqual | 74 -.5307411 .585208 -2.479299 .5344673 IBRD
regqual | 54 .1344219 .7558739 -2.355607 1.3608
rule of law
Source: World Governance Indicators
World Bank
rulelaw | 128 -.4350388 .6412195 -2.004488 1.18196 IDA
rulelaw | 74 -.656123 .5712961 -2.004488 .5856957 IBRD
rulelaw | 54 -.1320715 .6114992 -1.194382 1.18196
control of corruption
Source: World Governance Indicators
World Bank
corruptcon~l | 128 -.419678 .5942281 -1.797883 1.385959 IDA
corruptcon~l | 74 -.6034274 .5122122 -1.797883 .6707317 IBRD
corruptcon~l | 54 -.1678731 .6107494 -1.217065 1.385959
Freedom House index (reversed and standardized) Source: Freedom House
World Bank
z_fh | 128 -2.36e-09 1 -1.910483 1.695664 IDA
z_fh | 74 -.2612192 .9289119 -1.835355 1.695664 IBRD
z_fh | 54 .357967 .990911 -1.910483 1.695664
PolityIV index (standardized) Source: Polity IV
World Bank
z_polity | 113 8.44e-09 1 -2.226948 1.328512 IDA
z_polity | 63 -.3150649 .8713757 -2.226948 1.306291 IBRD
z_polity | 50 .3969818 1.018103 -2.049175 1.328512
Corruption Perceptions Index (standardized) Source: Transparency International
World Bank
z_ti | 80 8.09e-10 1 -1.747575 3.320446 IDA
Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max ---+---
IBRD
z_ti | 45 .4723184 .9962269 -1.366974 3.320446
Other Covariates
log(GDP per capita $US2000)
Source: World Development Indicators
World Bank
loggdppc | 125 6.856354 1.137329 4.571552 9.236009 IDA
loggdppc | 72 6.166181 .856906 4.571552 8.334295 IBRD
loggdppc | 53 7.793948 .7255503 6.276595 9.236009
log(investment/GDP)
Source: Penn World Tables 6.2
World Bank
loginvest | 128 2.375392 .548788 1.069988 3.670243 IDA
loginvest | 74 2.188674 .5536696 1.069988 3.670243 IBRD
loginvest | 54 2.631266 .4290149 1.479666 3.581081
log(external debt/GNI)
Source: World Development Indicators
World Bank
logdebtgni | 120 -.4781263 .6346837 -2.052154 1.365214 IDA
logdebtgni | 72 -.2588776 .6336231 -1.632937 1.365214 IBRD
logdebtgni | 48 -.8069994 .4788823 -2.052154 -.0093921
participation in an IMF program Source: Dreher (2006)
World Bank
imf | 128 .4677734 .3722822 0 1 IDA
imf | 74 .5456081 .3687112 0 1 IBRD
imf | 54 .3611111 .3532753 0 1
log(population)
Source: World Development Indicators
World Bank
logpop | 127 15.70872 1.92443 10.66186 20.94251 IDA
logpop | 73 15.38659 1.938678 11.18099 20.71305 IBRD
logpop | 54 16.14418 1.833685 10.66186 20.94251
log(land area)
Source: World Development Indicators
World Bank
Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max ---+---
IDA
logarea | 74 11.42325 2.304506 5.703783 14.90515 IBRD
logarea | 54 12.16104 2.241715 5.886104 16.61163
ongoing civil war
Source: UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset
World Bank
civilwar | 128 .1816406 .3214216 0 1 IDA
civilwar | 74 .2128378 .33022 0 1 IBRD
civilwar | 54 .1388889 .3068274 0 1
log(people affected by disaster + 1)
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
World Bank
logdisaster | 128 9.46005 4.347167 0 18.67376 IDA
logdisaster | 74 9.82253 4.065782 0 18.16998 IBRD
logdisaster | 54 8.963318 4.698953 0 18.67376
federalism (meaningful sub-national authority) Source: Database of Political Institutions
World Bank
author | 128 .1025391 .2982204 0 1 IDA
author | 74 .0827703 .2651869 0 1 IBRD
author | 54 .1296296 .3390495 0 1
plurality electoral rules
Source: Database of Political Institutions
World Bank
pluralty | 121 .6632231 .4563907 0 1 IDA
pluralty | 68 .71875 .4315966 0 1 IBRD
pluralty | 53 .5919811 .4811038 0 1
Political Influence Variables
log(U.S. military assistance + 1)
Source: U.S. Agency for International Development, U.S. Greenbook
World Bank
logusmil | 128 10.97021 4.712283 0 21.00535 IDA
logusmil | 74 9.576955 4.638376 0 21.00535 IBRD
Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max ---+---
log(U.S. trade + 1) Source: SourceOECD
World Bank
logustrade | 122 19.19246 2.933538 0 25.28427 IDA
logustrade | 74 18.03799 2.902206 0 23.24806 IBRD
logustrade | 48 20.97226 1.933709 16.49409 25.28427
log(OECD trade + 1) Source: SourceOECD
World Bank
logoecdtrade | 128 21.47221 2.024241 16.87518 26.39729 IDA
logoecdtrade | 74 20.34741 1.502583 16.87518 24.57526 IBRD
logoecdtrade | 54 23.0136 1.587998 18.81178 26.39729
U.N. voting with U.S., moving average Source: Dreher and Sturm (2006)
World Bank
inlineblma~a | 127 .2086469 .0824819 .0146175 .4328907 IDA
inlineblma~a | 73 .1780346 .0637996 .0146175 .3629475 IBRD
inlineblma~a | 54 .2500302 .0872271 .0965385 .4328907
average U.N. voting with G7 countries, moving average Source: Dreher and Sturm (2006)
World Bank
inlineblmag7 | 127 .4673289 .1548822 .0460676 .8430135 IDA
inlineblmag7 | 73 .4104075 .1311552 .0460676 .7723714 IBRD
inlineblmag7 | 54 .5442782 .1522014 .1691502 .8430135
U.N. Security Council temporary membership Source: Dreher, Sturm and Vreeland (2009)
World Bank
unscrotate | 128 .0517578 .0998613 0 .375 IDA
unscrotate | 74 .0304054 .0768906 0 .25 IBRD
unscrotate | 54 .0810185 .1193472 0 .375
log(OECD migrants + 1) Source: SourceOECD
World Bank
logoecdmig~s | 128 10.56509 1.897401 5.613128 15.78348 IDA
logoecdmig~s | 74 9.964578 1.794267 5.613128 13.68556 IBRD
Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max ---+---
former DAC-member colony
Source: Issue Correlates of War Colonial History Dataset
World Bank
daccol | 128 .5859375 .4944948 0 1 IDA
daccol | 74 .7027027 .4601885 0 1 IBRD
daccol | 54 .4259259 .4991257 0 1
log(oil production + 1)
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2008)
World Bank
logoil | 128 3.00323 5.601955 0 15.68936 IDA
logoil | 74 1.412292 4.09507 0 14.58136 IBRD
III. Overall Lending – Governance Measure and Additional Control Variables
IV. Proportional Outcomes – Governance Measure and Additional Control Variables
V. Random Effects Tobit Models
Overall World Bank Lending – No Governance Variable
Random-effects tobit regression Number of obs = 934 Group variable: country Number of groups = 120
Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian Obs per group: min = 1 avg = 7.8 max = 8
Wald chi2(13) = 170.25 Log likelihood = -2636.0193 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
--- logcommitamt | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] ---+--- loggdppc | -1.065975 .68641 -1.55 0.120 -2.411314 .2793635 loginvest | .8951255 .9382258 0.95 0.340 -.9437633 2.734014 logdebtgni | 1.23944 .8150179 1.52 0.128 -.3579653 2.836846 imf | 4.505109 .8845206 5.09 0.000 2.771481 6.238738 logpop | 2.947598 .5285155 5.58 0.000 1.911727 3.983469 logarea | -.653008 .4429619 -1.47 0.140 -1.521197 .2151815 africa | -3.497242 1.662774 -2.10 0.035 -6.75622 -.2382641 eastasia | -3.791325 1.874329 -2.02 0.043 -7.464942 -.117709 latinam | -.5739355 1.600053 -0.36 0.720 -3.709981 2.56211 mena | 1.395802 2.099243 0.66 0.506 -2.718638 5.510243 southasia | -3.085194 2.499409 -1.23 0.217 -7.983945 1.813557 trend | 4.070476 .6721743 6.06 0.000 2.753039 5.387914 trend2 | -.4876363 .0730017 -6.68 0.000 -.630717 -.3445556 _cons | -29.24325 7.237491 -4.04 0.000 -43.42847 -15.05802 ---+--- /sigma_u | 3.953847 .5228842 7.56 0.000 2.929013 4.978681 /sigma_e | 9.466842 .309161 30.62 0.000 8.860897 10.07279 ---+--- rho | .1485255 .0352218 .0899899 .2282147 ---
Observation summary: 298 left-censored observations 636 uncensored observations 0 right-censored observations
Overall World Bank Lending – Governance Variable Included
Random-effects tobit regression Number of obs = 857 Group variable: country Number of groups = 118
Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian Obs per group: min = 1 avg = 7.3 max = 8
Wald chi2(14) = 157.29 Log likelihood = -2482.5407 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
imf | 3.583367 .8680186 4.13 0.000 1.882082 5.284652 logpop | 2.893063 .541659 5.34 0.000 1.831431 3.954695 logarea | -.6272039 .4505278 -1.39 0.164 -1.510222 .2558144 africa | -5.326806 1.6846 -3.16 0.002 -8.628562 -2.025051 eastasia | -4.127934 1.92523 -2.14 0.032 -7.901315 -.3545539 latinam | -.4105484 1.570445 -0.26 0.794 -3.488564 2.667467 mena | 2.150479 2.063584 1.04 0.297 -1.894071 6.19503 southasia | -5.019468 2.53503 -1.98 0.048 -9.988035 -.0509014 trend | 3.551023 .6679934 5.32 0.000 2.24178 4.860266 trend2 | -.4426967 .0716743 -6.18 0.000 -.5831758 -.3022176 _cons | -7.534259 8.096237 -0.93 0.352 -23.40259 8.334075 ---+--- /sigma_u | 3.914665 .5163417 7.58 0.000 2.902654 4.926676 /sigma_e | 8.987399 .2986429 30.09 0.000 8.402069 9.572728 ---+--- rho | .1594686 .0373458 .0971207 .2434792 ---
Observation summary: 246 left-censored observations 611 uncensored observations 0 right-censored observations
IDA Lending – No Governance Variable
Random-effects tobit regression Number of obs = 552 Group variable: country Number of groups = 72
Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian Obs per group: min = 1 avg = 7.7 max = 8
Wald chi2(13) = 131.82 Log likelihood = -1561.1058 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
--- logcommitamt | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] ---+--- loggdppc | -.4657856 1.069181 -0.44 0.663 -2.561342 1.629771 loginvest | 1.147397 1.027657 1.12 0.264 -.8667747 3.161568 logdebtgni | .2115324 .9736507 0.22 0.828 -1.696788 2.119853 imf | 4.321847 1.136039 3.80 0.000 2.095251 6.548443 logpop | 2.348058 .6239209 3.76 0.000 1.125196 3.570921 logarea | -.0145499 .5080158 -0.03 0.977 -1.010243 .9811428 africa | -3.896424 1.911505 -2.04 0.042 -7.642906 -.1499423 eastasia | -4.442327 2.367272 -1.88 0.061 -9.082094 .1974405 latinam | -3.499923 2.450259 -1.43 0.153 -8.302342 1.302496 mena | -1.312975 3.179761 -0.41 0.680 -7.545192 4.919242 southasia | -4.333173 2.606624 -1.66 0.096 -9.442063 .7757165 trend | 4.541487 .8615692 5.27 0.000 2.852843 6.230132 trend2 | -.5292009 .0935664 -5.66 0.000 -.7125877 -.3458142 _cons | -31.4362 11.35546 -2.77 0.006 -53.6925 -9.179905 ---+--- /sigma_u | 2.892758 .6794336 4.26 0.000 1.561093 4.224423 /sigma_e | 9.329974 .3926845 23.76 0.000 8.560326 10.09962 ---+--- rho | .0877003 .0392353 .0330447 .1915251 ---
IDA Lending – Governance Variable Included
Random-effects tobit regression Number of obs = 486 Group variable: country Number of groups = 71
Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian Obs per group: min = 1 avg = 6.8 max = 8
Wald chi2(14) = 131.43 Log likelihood = -1421.7805 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
--- logcommitamt | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] ---+--- gmavg | 7.267077 1.328082 5.47 0.000 4.664084 9.87007 loggdppc | -1.829966 1.011364 -1.81 0.070 -3.812203 .1522711 loginvest | -.0181228 .9694208 -0.02 0.985 -1.918153 1.881907 logdebtgni | 1.237381 .9931499 1.25 0.213 -.7091567 3.18392 imf | 2.797736 1.082434 2.58 0.010 .6762031 4.919268 logpop | 2.784953 .6048942 4.60 0.000 1.599382 3.970524 logarea | -.4047416 .4786466 -0.85 0.398 -1.342872 .5333885 africa | -6.279735 1.802795 -3.48 0.000 -9.813149 -2.746322 eastasia | -4.918389 2.251055 -2.18 0.029 -9.330376 -.506402 latinam | -5.505455 2.258518 -2.44 0.015 -9.932069 -1.078842 mena | -1.248658 2.882749 -0.43 0.665 -6.898742 4.401427 southasia | -7.76371 2.513009 -3.09 0.002 -12.68912 -2.838302 trend | 3.877438 .8651137 4.48 0.000 2.181846 5.57303 trend2 | -.4766073 .0916666 -5.20 0.000 -.6562705 -.2969441 _cons | -13.43076 10.60712 -1.27 0.205 -34.22033 7.358804 ---+--- /sigma_u | 2.19492 .7275244 3.02 0.003 .7689981 3.620841 /sigma_e | 8.643284 .3738388 23.12 0.000 7.910574 9.375995 ---+--- rho | .0605813 .0391412 .0142958 .1812129 ---
Observation summary: 127 left-censored observations 359 uncensored observations 0 right-censored observations
IBRD Lending – No Governance Variable
Random-effects tobit regression Number of obs = 382 Group variable: country Number of groups = 48
Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian Obs per group: min = 6 avg = 8.0 max = 8
Wald chi2(12) = 75.62 Log likelihood = -1065.2696 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
africa | -8.834674 3.907583 -2.26 0.024 -16.4934 -1.175951 eastasia | -4.752484 3.007092 -1.58 0.114 -10.64628 1.141308 latinam | .3014956 2.031043 0.15 0.882 -3.679275 4.282266 mena | 2.338245 2.613383 0.89 0.371 -2.78389 7.460381 southasia | (omitted)
trend | 3.03905 1.085437 2.80 0.005 .9116329 5.166468 trend2 | -.4121321 .1173965 -3.51 0.000 -.642225 -.1820392 _cons | -57.69391 14.73426 -3.92 0.000 -86.57253 -28.8153 ---+--- /sigma_u | 3.871395 .8794857 4.40 0.000 2.147635 5.595156 /sigma_e | 9.721646 .5062552 19.20 0.000 8.729405 10.71389 ---+--- rho | .1368763 .0566735 .0546608 .278376 ---
Observation summary: 127 left-censored observations 255 uncensored observations 0 right-censored observations
IBRD Lending – Governance Variable Included
Random-effects tobit regression Number of obs = 371 Group variable: country Number of groups = 47
Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian Obs per group: min = 5 avg = 7.9 max = 8
Wald chi2(13) = 71.95 Log likelihood = -1044.8048 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
--- logcommitamt | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] ---+--- gmavg | 2.825957 2.108841 1.34 0.180 -1.307295 6.959209 loggdppc | -.0181874 1.946112 -0.01 0.993 -3.832497 3.796122 loginvest | -2.344253 2.087381 -1.12 0.261 -6.435445 1.746938 logdebtgni | 2.779059 1.486621 1.87 0.062 -.1346636 5.692782 imf | 4.094272 1.415495 2.89 0.004 1.319953 6.86859 logpop | 4.913842 1.04395 4.71 0.000 2.867737 6.959947 logarea | -1.314335 .8055032 -1.63 0.103 -2.893092 .2644223 africa | -8.385955 3.929836 -2.13 0.033 -16.08829 -.6836177 eastasia | -5.713843 3.108379 -1.84 0.066 -11.80615 .3784686 latinam | .6420347 2.073528 0.31 0.757 -3.422006 4.706075 mena | 2.956418 2.657714 1.11 0.266 -2.252606 8.165442 southasia | (omitted)
trend | 2.885508 1.07421 2.69 0.007 .7800953 4.990921 trend2 | -.3946067 .1162337 -3.39 0.001 -.6224206 -.1667928 _cons | -48.96082 17.4825 -2.80 0.005 -83.2259 -14.69575 ---+--- /sigma_u | 3.953298 .8843955 4.47 0.000 2.219915 5.686681 /sigma_e | 9.516293 .4976319 19.12 0.000 8.540952 10.49163 ---+--- rho | .1471777 .0593522 .0601025 .2934561 ---
VI. Interactions Between Governance and Strategic Interest Variables
Overall Lending
Programmatic Amount
National Amount
VII. Alternative Outcome Variable – Include Sub-National Structural Adjustment Projects under
Programmatic Lending
-0.5 0 0.5
Governance
-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4
Log(GDP Per Capita)
-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4
Log(Investment Ratio)
-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4
Log(External Debt Ratio)
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1
IMF Program
-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2
Log(Population)
WB IDA IBRD
-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2
Log(Land Area)
Programmatic Lending Pct (Alt)
