SHORT-RUN FORECASTING OF THE
EURO-DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE
WITH ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS
Marcos dal Bianco, Maximo Camacho
and Gabriel Perez-Quiros
Documentos de Trabajo
N.º 1203
SHORT-RUN FORECASTING OF THE EURO-DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE WITH ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS
SHORT-RUN FORECASTING OF THE EURO-DOLLAR EXCHANGE
RATE WITH ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS
(*)Marcos dal Bianco
BBVA RESEARCH
Maximo Camacho
UNIVERSIDAD DE MURCIA
Gabriel Perez-Quiros
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
(*) Camacho acknowledges financial support from MICINN (ECO2010-19830). The authors are grateful to the editor, the anonymous referees, participants to the Econometrics Workshop at the University of Alicante, XXXII Symposium on Economic Analysis, and the XLV Meeting of the Argentinean Association of Political Economy for their very useful comments. Any remaining errors are our own responsibility. The views in this paper are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Bank of Spain.
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Abstract
We propose a fundamentals-based econometric model for the weekly changes in the euro-dollar rate with the distinctive feature of mixing economic variables quoted at different frequencies. The model obtains good in-sample fi t and, more importantly, encouraging out-of-sample forecasting results at horizons ranging from one week to one month. Specifi cally, we obtain statistically signifi cant improvements upon the hard-to-beat random walk model using traditional statistical measures of forecasting error at all horizons. Moreover, our model improves greatly when we use the direction-of-change metric, which has more economic relevance than other loss measures. With this measure, our model performs much better at all forecasting horizons than a naive model that predicts the exchange rate has an equal chance to go up or down, with statistically signifi cant improvements.
Keywords: euro-dollar rate, exchange rate forecasting, State-space model, mixed
frequencies.
Resumen
Se propone un modelo econométrico basado en fundamentales para el cambio semanal del tipo de cambio del euro frente al dólar con la característica diferencial de mezclar variables con diferentes frecuencias. El modelo obtiene buenas predicciones en la muestra, y, lo que es más importante, mejoras en predicción fuera de la muestra a horizontes entre una semana y un mes. Específi camente, obtenemos mejoras estadísticamente signifi cativas frente al difícil de batir paseo aleatorio, usando las medidas tradicionales basadas en error de predicción cuadrático medio a todos los horizontes. Las ganancias son mayores cuando utilizamos la métrica basada en la dirección del cambio, que tiene más sentido económico en un modelo como este. Con esta medida, nuestro modelo predice los movimientos alcistas y bajistas del tipo de cambio mucho mejor que un modelo basado en igual probabilidad de bajadas y subidas.
Palabras claves: Tipo de cambio euro-dólar, predicción de tipos de cambio, modelo de
ecuación de estados y frecuencias mixtas.
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