ENE 5714: Análise Política da Questão Energética
Programa Interunidades de Pós-Graduação em Energia Instituto de Eletrotécnica e Energia - IEE
Universidade de São Paulo - USP Prof. Célio Bermann
19/set/2005 - 2a. aula
Graduate Program on Energy - PPGE Institute of Electrotechnics and Energy - IEE University of São Paulo - USP
Célio Bermann
Professor of the Institute of Electrotechnics and Energy - IEE
University of São Paulo - USP
Country Profiles: BRAZIL
Understanding BRICS Through the Prism of Energy:
The Challenges of Moving Towards Renewable
Energy
* Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, heat, etc. Source: IEA - Key World Energy Statistics, 2012.
Fuel Shares of World Total Primary Energy
Supply - 2010
•
•
•
•
non-renewables:
86,8%
•
•
•
•
renewables:
13,2%
Figura 2: Oferta Interna de Energia no Brasil, 2011
Source: MME-Resenha Energética Brasileira (Brazilian Energy Review), July 2012.
?!
Domestic Energy Supply: Brazil, 2011
272,3 millions toe (2% of world energy)
Oil and oil products Natural Gas Coal Uranium - U3O8 Hydraulic and Electricity Biomass Renewables: Brazil: 44,1% OECD: 7,8% World: 13,3% Biomass: Firewood: 9,7%
Sugar cane products: 15,7% Others: 4,1%
•
•
•
•
non-renewables:
55,8%
•
•
•
•
renewables:
44,2%
Petróleo e Derivados
38,6%
Figura 3: Distribuição da Oferta Interna de Energia
segundo a fonte - Brasil, 2011.
Carvão Mineral
e Derivados
5,6%
Gás Natural
10,1%
Urânio
1,5%
Hidráulica e
Eletricidade
14,7 %
Derivados da
cana-de-açúcar
15,7%
Lenha e carvão
vegetal
9,7%
Source: MME-Resenha Energética Brasileira, July 2012.Share of Domestic Energy Supply by source:
Brazil, 2011
Natural Gas Uranium - U3O8 Hydraulic andElectricity Sugar Cane Products
Firewood and Charcoal Oil and oil products
Coal and coal products
Figura 4: Oferta Interna de Energia Elétrica
no Brasil, 2011 (% e TWh).
Domestic Electricity Supply: Brazil, 2011
(% and TWh)
Source: MME-Resenha Energética Brasileira (Brazilian Energy Review), July 2012. Biomass Wind Oil products Import Hydro Coal Natural Gas Renewables: Brazil: 87,81% OECD: 17,8% World: 19,5% TWh Total 568,6 Hydro 428,6 Natural Gas 26,2 Oil products 12,1 Nuclear 15,7 Coal 6,5 Biomass 32,2 Industrial Gas 8,9 Wind 2,7 Import 35,9 Industrial Gas
Source: MME-Brazilian Energy Review: preliminary results, July 2012
Brazilian Fossil Fuels Reserves - 2011
ENE 5714: Análise Política da Questão
Energética
Programa Interunidades de Pós-Graduação em Energia Instituto de Eletrotécnica e Energia - IEE
Universidade de São Paulo - USP Prof. Célio Bermann
19/set/2005 - 2a. aula
Source: Petrobrás, 2011. Post-Salt Layer
Bears most of Brazil’s reserves Campos Basin: 2,700-4,300m
Salt Layer
An irregular layer, the thickness of wich tanges from 1,000 to 2,000m
Pre-Salt Layer Santos Basin: 7,000m
ENE 5714: Análise Política da Questão
Energética
Programa Interunidades de Pós-Graduação em Energia Instituto de Eletrotécnica e Energia - IEE
Universidade de São Paulo - USP Prof. Célio Bermann
19/set/2005 - 2a. aula
Source: Petrobrás, 2008. Santos Basin Campos Basin Espírito Santo Basin Pre Salt Reserves 800 km 300 km
ENE 5714: Análise Política da Questão
Energética
Programa Interunidades de Pós-Graduação em Energia Instituto de Eletrotécnica e Energia - IEE
Universidade de São Paulo - USP Prof. Célio Bermann
19/set/2005 - 2a. aula
Source: Petrobrás, 2008.
Pre-Salt Production (x 1,000 barrels/day
Plant
Type
Status
Total
MW(e)
ANGRA 1
PWR
in operation
626
ANGRA 2
PWR
in operation
1229
ANGRA 3
PWR
under construction
1245
Angra 2
1229 MW
op. start: 07/21/2000
Angra 1
626 MW
op. start: 04/01/1982
Maquete eletrônica de Angra III
Fonte: EletronuclearRadius (km)
Nuclear Power Problems in Brazil
Brazil has no contingency plan for evacuation of the city of Angra dos Reis if a
problem similar to what happened at Japan’s Fukushima plant were to occur.
The Angra emergency plan establishes removal of the population – a total of
15 thousand people – in a 5 km radius from the plants, which is the minimum
required by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The problem that the Fukushima accident highlighted: the dependence on
pumping water in order to cool the reactor so as to prevent the fuel rods from
melting.
The electric transmission lines may knock down due to landslides, with a supply
system failure, similar to what’s happened at the Fukushima plants in Japan.
Built near the shore, the plants also run the risk of landslides damaging auxiliary
facilities, such as waste deposits.
Landslides in region of
Angra dos Reis
Rio-Santos Road
the only evacuation way
►
63% of the potential to be explored is placed in Amazon
Region (Basin of Madeira, Tocantins, Araguaia, Xingu and
Tapajós rivers)
Current Installed Capacity: 83,436 MW (November/2012),
wich represents “only”
34,3%
of the brazilian total
hidraulic potential (243.4 thousand MW)
Hidropower in Brazil
►
26 hydropower plants are planed or are under
construction in Amazon Region
- Santo Antonio and Jirau Dams (Madeira river)
- Belo Monte Dam (Xingu river)
Still lifes in the artificial lake produced by Balbina hydroelectric plant, which flooded 2.6 thousand kilometers of native forests. Photo: Ed Ferreira/AE
Source: Glenn Switkes – IRN, 2008. Available in:
http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/o/2486/images/ Climate/BalbinaJunglenewsFlickr.jpg
Source: http://apatrulhadalama.blogspot.com.br/2012/06/parem-belo-monte-usina-enfrenta.html
Source:
http://www.ips.org/TV/rio20/belo-monte-e-uma-ferida-aberta-na-amazonia/
Source: http://www.ips.org/TV/rio20/belo-monte-referencia-internacional-do-movimento-contra-barragens/
The towers of the Church of Itá (RS state), the first municipality fully covered
by the waters of a dam
Brazilian Electricity Production
from Biomass by source
Black Liquor
Wood Biogas Rice Husk
Sugar cane bagasse
436 sugar plants: 9,3 GW
Sugar cane plantation fire in Araraquara region (São Paulo state).
Photo: Andrew Allen in 'Unesp Ciência', February 2010.
Raw materials used for Biodiesel production in Brazil
Source: ANP (Brazilian Oil National Agency), October 2009.
Soybean oil
Other fatty materials Livestock fat
Source: CONAB, 2008.
Soybean Production in Brazil
Biodiesel from soybean in Amazon
Source: http://www.socioambiental.org/esp/soja.br
Soybean in Amazon forest
Source: http://www.socioambiental.org/esp/soja.br Source: Field Research, 09/26/2009.
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% F a to r d e c a p a c id a d e ( % )
Fator de capacidade eólico dos países
Fonte: EIA
Source: V. Lazzareschi (2012) according IEA, 2011.
Wind
Wind
Power
Power
-
-
Capacity
Capacity
Factor
Factor
around
around
the
the
World
World
C
a
p
a
c
it
y
F
a
c
to
r
(%
)
E nos mais recentes a hist
E nos mais recentes a histó
ó
ria começ
ria come
ça a se repetir
a a se repetir
Source: ONS, 2010. C a p a c it y F a c to r (% )
Wind
Wind
Power
Power
-
-
Capacity
Capacity
Factor
Factor
in
in
Brazil
Brazil
:
:
Estimated
Estimated
X
X
Real
Real
Brazilian Energy Plan 2021 (PDE 2021)
Brazilian Energy Plan 2021 (PDE 2021)
Source: EPE/MME – Brazilan Energy Plan (PDE 2021).
Brazilian Energy Plan 2021 (PDE 2021)
Source: EPE/MME – Brazilan Energy Plan (PDE 2021).
Electricity Consumption by Sector: Brazil – 2011
Industry:
48,5%
480,12 TWh/year
Source: MME/EPE (Energy Research Company). Brazilian Energy Balance 2012/year 2011, 2012.
SECTORS
Electricity Consumption
(on %)
Energy sector
4,9
Mining/Pelletization
2,5
Agriculture and Livestock
4,5
Heavy Industry*
23,9
Light Industry
17,2
Transportation
0,4
Residential
23,3
Commercial/Services
15,4
Public
7,9
Total
100,0
* Heavy Industry sector includes cement industries, pig-iron and steel, iron-alloys, non-ferrous/other metallurgical (aluminium), chemical, paper and pulp.
Brazil’s GDP Growth Rate (estimated): 4,4% per year
Electricity Consumption Rate: 5,7% per year
Prediction of the growth of production of minerals and
primary goods in Brazil
Iron ore: 319 Mt (2008)
585 Mt (2015)
795 Mt (2022)
1.098 Mt (2030)
Source: MME – Mining National Plan 2030.Steel: 33,7 Mt (2008)
52,6 Mt (2014)
72,3 Mt (2019)
Primary Aluminium: 1,66 Mt (2008)
1,67 Mt (2014)
2,54 Mt (2020)
Ferro-alloys: 0,98 Mt (2008)
Pulp: 12,7 Mt (2008)
1,49 Mt (2014)
19,4 Mt (2014)
2,06 Mt (2020)
28,0 Mt (2019)
These data confirm the way in which the Brazilian
industrial production is entering in the international
economy globalization process, limiting the role of
mere exporter of low value-added commodities and
high energy content.
Industrial Energy Intensity (toe/thousand US$ 2009)
China Africa Australia Brazil Russia World United OECD Japan United Mexico States Kingdom
THANK YOU
!!!
NGYABONGA
!!!
Contact:
Prof. Celio Bermann
Tel.: + 55 (11) 3091.2636
e-mail: cbermann@iee.usp.br
Graduate Program on Energy - PPGE Institute of Electrotechnics and Energy - IEE University of São Paulo - USP