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ENE 5714: Análise Política da Questão Energética

Programa Interunidades de Pós-Graduação em Energia Instituto de Eletrotécnica e Energia - IEE

Universidade de São Paulo - USP Prof. Célio Bermann

19/set/2005 - 2a. aula

Graduate Program on Energy - PPGE Institute of Electrotechnics and Energy - IEE University of São Paulo - USP

Célio Bermann

Professor of the Institute of Electrotechnics and Energy - IEE

University of São Paulo - USP

Country Profiles: BRAZIL

Understanding BRICS Through the Prism of Energy:

The Challenges of Moving Towards Renewable

Energy

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* Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, heat, etc. Source: IEA - Key World Energy Statistics, 2012.

Fuel Shares of World Total Primary Energy

Supply - 2010

non-renewables:

86,8%

renewables:

13,2%

(3)

Figura 2: Oferta Interna de Energia no Brasil, 2011

Source: MME-Resenha Energética Brasileira (Brazilian Energy Review), July 2012.

?!

Domestic Energy Supply: Brazil, 2011

272,3 millions toe (2% of world energy)

Oil and oil products Natural Gas Coal Uranium - U3O8 Hydraulic and Electricity Biomass Renewables: Brazil: 44,1% OECD: 7,8% World: 13,3% Biomass: Firewood: 9,7%

Sugar cane products: 15,7% Others: 4,1%

(4)

non-renewables:

55,8%

renewables:

44,2%

Petróleo e Derivados

38,6%

Figura 3: Distribuição da Oferta Interna de Energia

segundo a fonte - Brasil, 2011.

Carvão Mineral

e Derivados

5,6%

Gás Natural

10,1%

Urânio

1,5%

Hidráulica e

Eletricidade

14,7 %

Derivados da

cana-de-açúcar

15,7%

Lenha e carvão

vegetal

9,7%

Source: MME-Resenha Energética Brasileira, July 2012.

Share of Domestic Energy Supply by source:

Brazil, 2011

Natural Gas Uranium - U3O8 Hydraulic andElectricity Sugar Cane Products

Firewood and Charcoal Oil and oil products

Coal and coal products

(5)

Figura 4: Oferta Interna de Energia Elétrica

no Brasil, 2011 (% e TWh).

Domestic Electricity Supply: Brazil, 2011

(% and TWh)

Source: MME-Resenha Energética Brasileira (Brazilian Energy Review), July 2012. Biomass Wind Oil products Import Hydro Coal Natural Gas Renewables: Brazil: 87,81% OECD: 17,8% World: 19,5% TWh Total 568,6 Hydro 428,6 Natural Gas 26,2 Oil products 12,1 Nuclear 15,7 Coal 6,5 Biomass 32,2 Industrial Gas 8,9 Wind 2,7 Import 35,9 Industrial Gas

(6)

Source: MME-Brazilian Energy Review: preliminary results, July 2012

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Brazilian Fossil Fuels Reserves - 2011

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ENE 5714: Análise Política da Questão

Energética

Programa Interunidades de Pós-Graduação em Energia Instituto de Eletrotécnica e Energia - IEE

Universidade de São Paulo - USP Prof. Célio Bermann

19/set/2005 - 2a. aula

Source: Petrobrás, 2011. Post-Salt Layer

Bears most of Brazil’s reserves Campos Basin: 2,700-4,300m

Salt Layer

An irregular layer, the thickness of wich tanges from 1,000 to 2,000m

Pre-Salt Layer Santos Basin: 7,000m

(10)

ENE 5714: Análise Política da Questão

Energética

Programa Interunidades de Pós-Graduação em Energia Instituto de Eletrotécnica e Energia - IEE

Universidade de São Paulo - USP Prof. Célio Bermann

19/set/2005 - 2a. aula

Source: Petrobrás, 2008. Santos Basin Campos Basin Espírito Santo Basin Pre Salt Reserves 800 km 300 km

(11)

ENE 5714: Análise Política da Questão

Energética

Programa Interunidades de Pós-Graduação em Energia Instituto de Eletrotécnica e Energia - IEE

Universidade de São Paulo - USP Prof. Célio Bermann

19/set/2005 - 2a. aula

Source: Petrobrás, 2008.

Pre-Salt Production (x 1,000 barrels/day

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Plant

Type

Status

Total

MW(e)

ANGRA 1

PWR

in operation

626

ANGRA 2

PWR

in operation

1229

ANGRA 3

PWR

under construction

1245

(15)

Angra 2

1229 MW

op. start: 07/21/2000

Angra 1

626 MW

op. start: 04/01/1982

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Maquete eletrônica de Angra III

Fonte: Eletronuclear

(18)
(19)

Radius (km)

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Nuclear Power Problems in Brazil

Brazil has no contingency plan for evacuation of the city of Angra dos Reis if a

problem similar to what happened at Japan’s Fukushima plant were to occur.

The Angra emergency plan establishes removal of the population – a total of

15 thousand people – in a 5 km radius from the plants, which is the minimum

required by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The problem that the Fukushima accident highlighted: the dependence on

pumping water in order to cool the reactor so as to prevent the fuel rods from

melting.

The electric transmission lines may knock down due to landslides, with a supply

system failure, similar to what’s happened at the Fukushima plants in Japan.

Built near the shore, the plants also run the risk of landslides damaging auxiliary

facilities, such as waste deposits.

(21)

Landslides in region of

Angra dos Reis

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Rio-Santos Road

the only evacuation way

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63% of the potential to be explored is placed in Amazon

Region (Basin of Madeira, Tocantins, Araguaia, Xingu and

Tapajós rivers)

Current Installed Capacity: 83,436 MW (November/2012),

wich represents “only”

34,3%

of the brazilian total

hidraulic potential (243.4 thousand MW)

Hidropower in Brazil

26 hydropower plants are planed or are under

construction in Amazon Region

- Santo Antonio and Jirau Dams (Madeira river)

- Belo Monte Dam (Xingu river)

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Still lifes in the artificial lake produced by Balbina hydroelectric plant, which flooded 2.6 thousand kilometers of native forests. Photo: Ed Ferreira/AE

(29)

Source: Glenn Switkes – IRN, 2008. Available in:

http://salsa.democracyinaction.org/o/2486/images/ Climate/BalbinaJunglenewsFlickr.jpg

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Source: http://apatrulhadalama.blogspot.com.br/2012/06/parem-belo-monte-usina-enfrenta.html

Source:

http://www.ips.org/TV/rio20/belo-monte-e-uma-ferida-aberta-na-amazonia/

(32)

Source: http://www.ips.org/TV/rio20/belo-monte-referencia-internacional-do-movimento-contra-barragens/

(33)

The towers of the Church of Itá (RS state), the first municipality fully covered

by the waters of a dam

(34)
(35)

Brazilian Electricity Production

from Biomass by source

Black Liquor

Wood Biogas Rice Husk

Sugar cane bagasse

436 sugar plants: 9,3 GW

(36)

Sugar cane plantation fire in Araraquara region (São Paulo state).

Photo: Andrew Allen in 'Unesp Ciência', February 2010.

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Raw materials used for Biodiesel production in Brazil

Source: ANP (Brazilian Oil National Agency), October 2009.

Soybean oil

Other fatty materials Livestock fat

(39)

Source: CONAB, 2008.

Soybean Production in Brazil

(40)

Biodiesel from soybean in Amazon

Source: http://www.socioambiental.org/esp/soja.br

Soybean in Amazon forest

(41)

Source: http://www.socioambiental.org/esp/soja.br Source: Field Research, 09/26/2009.

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10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% F a to r d e c a p a c id a d e ( % )

Fator de capacidade eólico dos países

Fonte: EIA

Source: V. Lazzareschi (2012) according IEA, 2011.

Wind

Wind

Power

Power

-

-

Capacity

Capacity

Factor

Factor

around

around

the

the

World

World

C

a

p

a

c

it

y

F

a

c

to

r

(%

)

(45)

E nos mais recentes a hist

E nos mais recentes a histó

ó

ria começ

ria come

ça a se repetir

a a se repetir

Source: ONS, 2010. C a p a c it y F a c to r (% )

Wind

Wind

Power

Power

-

-

Capacity

Capacity

Factor

Factor

in

in

Brazil

Brazil

:

:

Estimated

Estimated

X

X

Real

Real

(46)

Brazilian Energy Plan 2021 (PDE 2021)

(47)

Brazilian Energy Plan 2021 (PDE 2021)

(48)

Source: EPE/MME – Brazilan Energy Plan (PDE 2021).

(49)
(50)

Brazilian Energy Plan 2021 (PDE 2021)

(51)

Source: EPE/MME – Brazilan Energy Plan (PDE 2021).

(52)

Electricity Consumption by Sector: Brazil – 2011

Industry:

48,5%

480,12 TWh/year

Source: MME/EPE (Energy Research Company). Brazilian Energy Balance 2012/year 2011, 2012.

SECTORS

Electricity Consumption

(on %)

Energy sector

4,9

Mining/Pelletization

2,5

Agriculture and Livestock

4,5

Heavy Industry*

23,9

Light Industry

17,2

Transportation

0,4

Residential

23,3

Commercial/Services

15,4

Public

7,9

Total

100,0

* Heavy Industry sector includes cement industries, pig-iron and steel, iron-alloys, non-ferrous/other metallurgical (aluminium), chemical, paper and pulp.

Brazil’s GDP Growth Rate (estimated): 4,4% per year

Electricity Consumption Rate: 5,7% per year

(53)

Prediction of the growth of production of minerals and

primary goods in Brazil

Iron ore: 319 Mt (2008)

585 Mt (2015)

795 Mt (2022)

1.098 Mt (2030)

Source: MME – Mining National Plan 2030.

Steel: 33,7 Mt (2008)

52,6 Mt (2014)

72,3 Mt (2019)

Primary Aluminium: 1,66 Mt (2008)

1,67 Mt (2014)

2,54 Mt (2020)

Ferro-alloys: 0,98 Mt (2008)

Pulp: 12,7 Mt (2008)

1,49 Mt (2014)

19,4 Mt (2014)

2,06 Mt (2020)

28,0 Mt (2019)

(54)

These data confirm the way in which the Brazilian

industrial production is entering in the international

economy globalization process, limiting the role of

mere exporter of low value-added commodities and

high energy content.

(55)

Industrial Energy Intensity (toe/thousand US$ 2009)

China Africa Australia Brazil Russia World United OECD Japan United Mexico States Kingdom

(56)

THANK YOU

!!!

NGYABONGA

!!!

Contact:

Prof. Celio Bermann

Tel.: + 55 (11) 3091.2636

e-mail: cbermann@iee.usp.br

Graduate Program on Energy - PPGE Institute of Electrotechnics and Energy - IEE University of São Paulo - USP

References

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