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Industrial LV Motors & Drives: A Global Market Update

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Mark Meza, Principal Analyst

Mark.Meza@IHS.com

+1 512 582 2008

Industrial LV Motors & Drives: A Global Market Update

January 2014

Introduction to IHS

Overview & Segmentation of the Market

LV Motors & Drives Market Comparison

LV Motor Market Data & Trends

(2)

© 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.

About IHS

2

Aerospace & Defense Agriculture

Automotive Chemicals

Construction

Consumer & Retail Clean Energy

Energy Oil & Gas

Electronics & Telecom Financial

Government Healthcare

Metals & Mining Military & Security Power & Utilities Shipping &

Transportation

Industries Served

(3)

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors

IE1: Standard Efficiency – Below EPAct

IE2: High Efficiency – EPAct, GB3

IE3: Premium Efficiency – NEMA Premium™, GB2

IE4: Super Premium Efficiency – GB1

Other, non-classified

• Definite & Special Purpose

• Submersible, fire pump, oven motors • Motors that use refrigerant as a coolant • ↑10-poles, ↑375kW/500HP

DC Motors

• Brushed & Brushless

LV Motors are characterized as motors running at 690V & below

Fast Facts:

• Industrial purpose LV motors consume 28% of the world’s electricity • Even a 1% efficiency gain in a LV motor can save 10s of $1,000s in

electricity costs over the lifetime of the motor.

• Depending on duty cycle & operating conditions, a LV motor can operate for 10, 15, 20 years or more.

(4)

$13,609.4 $10,912.8 $12,471.9 $13,835.8 $14,628.7 $15,992.6 $17,628.0 $19,461.5 $21,277.6 $23,448.1 -22.0% -17.0% -12.0% -7.0% -2.0% 3.0% 8.0% 13.0% 18.0% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 G ro w th (%) Rev en ues ($ M ) Revenues Growth

WORLD - 2013 - Market Size ($M) and Growth

LV motors ≈ 49.6 million units shipped, Average Selling Price ≈ $322

MV motors ≈ 57,840 units shipped, Average Selling Price ≈ $102,600

Low Voltage Motors – 2013 Market Data

(5)

Low Voltage Drives – 2013 Market Data

LV drives ≈ 20.4 million units shipped, Average Selling Price ≈ $620

MV drives ≈ 11,700 units shipped, Average Selling Price ≈ $239,300

$9,199.3 $10,447.4 $12,035.5 $12,022.0 $12,655.1 $13,595.3 $14,726.7 $15,879.5 $17,021.6 -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 11.0% 13.0% 15.0% 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Gr owt h ( %) Rev en ues ($ M ) Revenues Growth

WORLD - 2013 - Revenues ($M) and Growth

(6)

Motors v. Drives – Ratio Comparison

2:3

2 LV motors are sold for every 3 LV drives sold

• A significant portion of LV drives are sold into retro-fit

applications for installed-base LV motors

• The worldwide installed base of integral HP LV motors is

thought to be between 750 million – 1 billion units

5 MV motors are sold for every 1 MV drive sold

• A MV motor+drive system is a significant cost expenditure

($100,000+, usually more)

• The market for retro-fitting a MV drive onto an installed-base

MV motor has significant potential.

• The worldwide installed base of integral HP LV motors is

thought to be between 1.8 – 2.2 million units

(7)

Low Voltage Motors – Revenue Growth

Revenue growth in the LV market is based on two key factors:

1) Organic revenue growth

• The market’s natural demand for motors • Based heavily on economic circumstances • Significantly influences unit growth

2) Inorganic revenue growth

• Revenue growth catalyzed by energy efficiency regulations

• Higher efficiency & thusly more expensive motors are to be sold • Independent of economic circumstances

• Regulations do not significantly influence unit growth

2-3%

5-6%

• Typical CAGR for Average Selling Price in any given time period • Based on price increases in raw materials (copper, iron, steel, etc.)

• Estimated CAGR for Average Selling Price from 1997 – 2017

• Includes raw materials price increases

(8)

Low Voltage Motors – Legislative Timeline

Key Concerns During Regional Efficiency Transitions:

Is there adequate enforcement of regulations?

(9)

China $2,994.6 18.7% EMEA $5,153.9 32.2% Americas $5,205.4 32.5% Rest of Asia $2,638.7 16.5%

WORLD - 2013 - Region by Revenue ($M) and Share (%)

Low Voltage Motors – Market Data

2013

Market Size ($M)

$15,992.6

High Efficiency Motor Markets

• Mexico, IE2/2004

• Australia, IE2/2006

• South Korea, IE2/2008, 2010 • Brazil, IE2/2009

• US, IE3/2010

• European Union, IE2/2011 • Turkey, IE2/2012

• China, IE2/2012

IE3 in the EU in 2015 for >7.5kW (>10HP)

Min effect on inorganic revenue growth • Power range is <10% of Eurozone units

IE3 in the EU in 2017 for <7.5kW (<10HP)

Max effect on inorganic revenue growth • Power range is >90% of Eurozone units • 15-20% growth is expected from 2017-2020

(10)

Discrete $11,362.5 77.7% Process $4,630.0 31.7% IEC $11,821.4 80.8% NEMA $4,171.1 28.5% 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 2013 Rev en ues ($ M ) 0.75 -2.1kW 28.9% 2.2-7.4kW 31.6% 7.5 -45kW 21.4% 46-75kW 6.9% 76 -110kW 4.6% 111-375kW 3.8% 376kW> 2.7%

Low Voltage Motors – 2013 Market Data

90%+ of units sold in each region are between 1-

10HP (0.75kW

7.45kW)

A thriving IEC market exists in NEMA-centric North America

Because of the huge unit volumes they account for, The Discrete Sector (OEMs)

have a major influence on the rate of transition to higher efficiency motors

(11)

Low Voltage Motors – Market Data

IE1 43.1% IE2 23.7% IE3 19.0% IE4 4.4% DC 1.6% Other 8.2% IE1 23.2% IE2 38.8% IE3 23.5% IE4 5.5% DC 0.7% Other 8.3% 2013 Market Size ($M) $15,992.6 2017 Market Size ($M) $23,448.1

WORLD - 2013 - EfficiencyClass Transition by Share (%): 2013 to 2017

Will OEMs choose IE3 or IE2+VFD in 2017?

(12)

Low Voltage Motors – Technology Trend

Motor types that achieve IE4:

No Magnets

• Synchronous Reluctance, SynRM™ • Switched Reluctance

Magnets

• NdFeB & SmCO-based PM

• ECPM (DC Brushless, ferrite magnets)

• AM+FM (FeSiB) axial flux motor technologies • Copper rotors

• New ferrite magnet-based motor technologies?

The IE4 Super Premium Market is Poised for Strong Growth

• China will be the top supplier of neodymium & dysprosium for the foreseeable future. • Neodymium prices stabilized in mid-2012, but still remain high due to export caps.

• This market reality has been the catalyst for other/new IE4 motor technologies to emerge as viable

(13)

Low Voltage Motors – REM Price Trends

REM Production

China, 2012

80,000 metric tons

US, 2018 or later

500 metric tons

(14)

Hitachi Metals Ltd. – AM+FM IE4 Technology

Joint effort b/w Hitachi & Hitachi Industrial Equipment Systems

11kW (15HP) synchronous IE4, 93% efficiency

Designed for large cooling fans & industrial fluid pumps

D

D

D

D

F

f

Amorphous alloy ribbon (FeSiB)

Advantages:

10x

magnetization v. Si steel

10%

iron loss v. Si steel

>IE4 efficiency at

torque v. Si steel

AM+FM realizes lowest core losses

Disadvantages:

production cost v. Si steel

Specific motor structure needed for AM stator

AM easily magnetized, but

saturation v. Si steel

FM has 12% magnetic attraction force of REMs

starting torque (not good for electric vehicles)

(15)

Low Voltage Motors – IE4 Market Data

TREND:

End-equipment mftrs such as KSB (pumps) using IE4 synchronous reluctance motors:

and OEMs such as Bauer Gear Motor (gearboxes) are producing high efficiency

products equipped w/ IE4 induction motors.

Other New IE4

products?

Lafert Group has produced an IE4 PM motor with an integrated VFD

Target Markets: End-users w/ continuous duty cycle (S1) applications

Compressors 43.9% Elevators & Lifts 29.6% Conveyors 2.9% Crusher 1.8% Extruders 2.6% Pumps 2.4% Fans 13.8% Other 3.0%

(16)

Top Industry Sectors by Revenues

Commercial HVAC, 31%

Food, Beverage & Tobacco, 13.5%

Mining, 7.5%

Utilities, 5.0%

Other Sectors, 43%

The World Low Voltage Motor Market in 2012

Top Application Sectors by Revenues

Compressors, 27%

Pumps & Fans, 52%

Other Applications, 21%

Industry Sector Performance in 2013

After years of strong growth, global mining sector

began to slow in early 2013

Outperforming sectors:

Oil & LNG; “fracking” for shale gas in NAm & SAm

Chemicals & Petroleum, Commercial HVAC

Shipbuilding (carriers and specialized for LNG)

Underperforming sectors:

Rubber & Plastics

Cement, Pulp & Paper

Printing, Woodworking

(17)

WORLD

14.0% - ABB (inc. Baldor) 9.5% - Siemens

7.0% - WEG (inc. Electric Machinery)

3.0% - TECO E&M/TECO-Westinghouse

2.5% - Regal Beloit 2.5% - Leroy Somer 1.5% - Shandong Huali

1.5% - Hyundai Heavy Industries/Ideal

1.5% - Hyosung Corporation 1.5% - NIDEC (US Emerson)

Low Voltage Motors – Market Data

Estimated Market Shares by Revenues for 2013

*rounded to the nearest 0.5%

≤ 1.0% World Market Share

• LEZ Ruselprom

• Toshiba International Corp. • ATB Group

• VEM Group • Luan JiangHuai • Anhui Wannan

• GE Industrial • Tech Full Simo • Cantoni Motor • Fuji Electric • Hengshui (OX) • Crompton Greaves • Tatung Corporation

(18)

Top Industry Sectors

16%

- Food, Beverage & Tobacco

10.5%

-

Water & Wastewater

10.5%

- Comm. HVAC

6%

- Power Generation

5.5%

- Metals Processing

4%

- Conveyors

WORLD

15.5%

- ABB

13.5%

- Siemens

7.5%

- Rockwell Automation

7.5%

- Danfoss

7.0%

- Mitsubishi Electric

6.5%

- Schneider

Electric/STI

4.5%

- Yaskawa

3.5%

-

SEW Eurodrive

3.0%

- Vacon

3.0%

- Fuji Electric

2.5%

- Emerson CT

2.0%

- GE (inc. Converteam)

2.0%

- KEB

Low Voltage Drives – Market Data

Estimated Market Shares by Revenues for 2013

*rounded to the nearest 0.5%

3.5%

- Textiles

3%

- Elev. & Escalators

3%

- Infrastructure

2.5%

- Automotive

(19)

Low Voltage Motors – Trends & Events

Recent Market Activity

• ABB acquiring Baldor: Assumes #1 share position in the world for LV motors, overtaking Siemens • Chinese Wolong acquired Austria’s ATB Group; Carlyle Group acquired Italy’s Marelli Motori • Regal Beloit acquired Italian hazardous motor manufacturer CEMP

• Low growth in W. Europe in 2013 & expected in 2014 due to recovery from Eurozone debt crisis • IEC motor market growing rapidly in a NEMA-centric market (North America)

• Hazardous are LV motor segment experiencing higher YoY growth than in past years • End-equipment manufacturers & OEMs producing IE4 motor-equipped products

Regulatory Activity

• Canada transitioned to IE3/Premium Efficiency on January 1st, 2012; Turkey to IE2 on June 18th, 2012 • Japan’s ‘Top Runner’ program will prompt the country’s industry to transition to IE3 starting in 2015

• In 2015 & 2017, the EU will allow IE2 motor + VFD in order to satisfy IE3 requirement; in contrast, IE3/Premium mandate in the US in December 2010 did not allow this alternative

• Systems efficiency regulations are coming, first in pumps & fans, then in the compressors applications • Efficiency transitions occurring slowly: lack of enforcement & exploitation of regulatory loopholes

• Regulatory bodies in N. America & Europe are discussing expanding the current scope of motor efficiency regulations to include more motor types, more usage models & higher power ratings

(20)

Low Voltage Motors – Trends & Events

The State of the DC Motor Market

• The DC motor market continues to shrink rapidly, but remains a viable legacy replacement market • Most steel rolling mills in China & Japan have converted their DC installed base to AC induction.

• Currently, the US has the largest DC motor installed base in the world, with Baldor (ABB) and GE being

the major players

• Most major motor manufacturers have eliminated their respective integral HP DC motor product lines • To address the DC-to-AC transition in the mill motor sectors, some companies developing ‘drop-in’ AC

induction replacement motors designed to DC specifications

China News

• After years of double-digit growth, China’s LV motor market contracted by an estimated 7.0% in 2012 • China officially began the transition to IE2/GB3 in Sept. 2012

• Low-cost Chinese IE1 motors sold into Europe with false IE2 specs causing trouble in the marketplace • Chinese vendors seeking access to European OEM distribution channels is intensifying

• Neo-magnet price crisis caused by China reducing REM exports is similar to SmCO magnet crisis in

mid-1980s. Back then, SmCO crisis hastened introduction of NdFeB magnets to the market

• Domestic production of REMs & capping of exports, processing capabilities & government incentives

(21)

Mark Meza, Principal Analyst

Mark.Meza@IHS.com

References

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