EC-Earth: new global earth system model

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Amsterdam, December 2008 1

EC-Earth: new global earth system model

Wilco Hazeleger

Global Climate Division/EC-Earth program KNMI, The Netherlands

Vincent v Gogh

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Observed climate change

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Amsterdam, December 2008 4 Temperature trends compared to global trends (=1) 1950-2008:

Europe warms faster than the global average

van Oldenborgh et al submitted; Toestand van het Klimaat, 2008

Regional climate changes

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Earth System

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NB Prescribed solar radiation, emissions or concentrations of greenhouse gasses, land use

Atmosphere models

Climate models

Earth system models

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Atmosphere Models

Ocean Models

Land Surface

Models

Terrestrial Biosphere

Models

Solid Earth Models Carbon Cycle and Biogeochemistry Water Cycle

The Earth System Unifying the Models

The Predictive Earth System

Megaflops Gigaflops Teraflops Petaflops

Natural Hazard Prediction

Hydrolo gy Process

Models

Climate / Weather Models

2000 2010

LANL (Roadrunner): 1000 Tflop = 1Ptflop ECMWF: 100 Tflop

SARA: 50 Tflop KNMI: 1 Tflop

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The Netherlands

KNMI, Un. Utrecht,VU, WUR Sweden

SMHI, Lund Un.

Ireland

MetEireann, UCD, ICHEC

Italy ICTP

Switzerland ETH

Spain

AEMET, BSC

Portugal

IM, ULisbon Denmark

DMI

•Use best weather forecast model system (ECMWF) for climate studies Seamless Prediction

•Share resources & knowledge: meteorological institutes facilitate

•Provide input to IPCC and to member state policy makers

•Focus on adaptation (high resolution, impact, up to 2050,…)

Norway MetNo Belgium

UCL

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OASIS3

Atmosphere: IFS

Ocean: NEMO

Sea-ice:LIM2 Land: IFS H-tessel

Chemistry: TM5 Vegetation:LPJ

EC-EARTH

•Filtered Navier Stokes Equations

•Conservation of mass and energy

•~10 prognostic variables

•~10⁸ – 10⁹ gridpoints, time step ~20 mins

•~ 2 million lines of software code

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Science Projections

Predictions Climate Services

EC-EARTH EC-EARTH

RCMs

Impact models Decision making

EC-EARTH applications EC-EARTH applications

Institutes

National programs FP7

FP7 IPCC5AR/

CMIP5

Kennis voor Klimaat C4I

FP7

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Understanding

impact of land use vs CO₂ rise (1870s vs 1990s)

Understanding

impact of land use vs CO₂ rise (1870s vs 1990s)

M. vd. Moolen pers. comm.

Land use only land use + CO₂ CO₂ only

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Predictions and projections Predictions and projections

T. Palmer, ECMWF

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Challenge project, Selten et al

Essence project, Dijkstra and Hazeleger, Sterl et al 2008

Climate projections

boundary value problem Climate projections

boundary value problem

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IPCC4AR

Projections of climate change

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Projections in EC-Earth Projections in EC-Earth

Future changes in storms Future changes in wind direction

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Applications:

Downscaling EC-Earth Applications:

Downscaling EC-Earth

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

courtesy

Erik van Meijgaard et.al.

Chasing extremes. Input for climate adaptation studies (e.g. KvK; RACMO downscaling)

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Applications:

Coupling

Applications:

Coupling

Kennis voor Klimaat, Modelplatform, Wever et al 2008

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User needs

Climate

Water

Socio- economic

Nature Agriculture

Applications:

Communicating results Applications:

Communicating results

Kennis voor Klimaat: Tailoring

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Data aspects Data aspects

• Online conservative regridding for coupled components:

flux coupler (OASIS3, energy conserving, fortran90)

• Irregular grids for ocean and atmosphere (dynamics spectral grid, rest on reduced Gaussian grid)

• Archiving in NetCDF on regular grid (nb netcdf hdf ok, hdf netcdf not ok)

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Boundary condition:

Solar forcing, aerosols, greenhouse gasses, land use (from observations or from integrated assessment models; transient or equilibrium)

Initial condition:

Atmosphere, ocean, ice, soil state (equilibruim from spinup of coupled model or observations)

Input

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Output Output

1D, 2D 3D state of atmosphere, ocean, ice, … (wind, temperature, salinity, currents, ice thickness,…)

Based on 17 member ESSENCE ensemble (1950-2100)

• Total amount of archived data: 35 Tbyte

• Amount per member, per year: 15 Gbyte atmosphere, Ocean: 2.5Gb/year

• Mostly monthly means, but more requests for 6-hourly data

• Increase by factor 4 at T159, and 16 at T511

Next 2 years: Petabyte storage/exchange needed!!

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Challenges Challenges

• Build a state-of-the-art earth system model as community model

– Integrate earth system knowledge at universities (NWO program, FP7 programs) in a global framework

– Facilitate the use of a state-of-the-art earth system model – Projections & (decadal) predictions

• Coupling of EC-Earth to other models

– online: direct feed backs, regridding, parallelisation – offline: downscaling, data formats, propagation of

uncertainties (biasses)

• Handling and sharing large amounts I/O (O in particular) – Protocols by World Climate Research Program (for IPCC)

• Communicating with user groups

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THANK YOU!

With help from Camiel Severijns, Xueli Wang, Andreas Sterl, Richard

Bintanja, Rein Haarsma, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh

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Projections of extremes

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Temperature change (since 1980)

Temperature change

(since 1980)

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Input for climate projections: Emission scenario’s

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Using climate models:

From Global to Regional scales Using climate models:

From Global to Regional scales

Input for adaptation strategies:

Climate model information input for climate

‘impact’ models (regional or sectoral – transport, agriculture, tourism, etc.)

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Climate change effect on Rhine discharge

….

14.500 16.000

5 - 7 19 - 22 15.000

18.000

10 - 13 22 - 26 14.000

15.000

5 18 m3/sec

Discharge Köln Discharge Lobith

Mlrd Euro Damage NRW Damage DikeR 43 MCA

Scenario..

Strategy..

Scenario 2 Strategy 2 Scenario 1

Strategy 1 Current

Situation

KNMI’06 scenarios

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Validation of climate model integrations

ESSENCE project, Dijkstra and Hazeleger, Sterl et al 2008

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57-year, linear trend of temperature at 2m

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Amsterdam, December 2008 Murphy et al.31

Nature, 2004

Circulation

Cloud, Radiation, Sea Ice

Typical errors in global climate models

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Amsterdam, December 2008 32 MPI/OPENMP

MPI Parallelisation

OASIS3 OASIS3

Coupler

Grib Grib

Output

33:30/2/1 33:24/8/1

Nr cpu (t:a/o/c)

720/4320 3600/3600

Time step (a/o)

1.5 deg bipolar, 40L 2 deg tripolar, 31L

Ocean

T63L31 T95L40

Atmosphere

ECHAM5/OM EC-earth