Changing output gap estimates for the year 2000
Output Gap Estimates in the WAEMU Zone
... potential output and output gap are important tools for central banks and in particular Central Bank of West African States to forecast inflation in pursuit of its priority objective of controlling ...
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Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap
... filter estimates are not heavily revised stems directly from our choice to work with AR ...estimated output gap for a BN decomposition directly reflects the esti- mated parameters of the model, it is ...
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The reliability of Canadian output gap estimates
... that output gaps have little ability to improve inflation forecasts out of sample (see Clark and McCracken (2003), Orphanides and van Norden (2003) or Runstler ...Canadian gap estimates do not ...
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The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time
... real-time estimates of the output gap are ...post estimates of the gap, estimation errors appear to contain a highly persistent component of substantial size, and the real-time ...
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The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time
... First, output data (and other officially published macroeconomic time series) are continually revised in response to more complete reporting, adjustment of seasonal factors, refinements in concept or methodology, ...
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the Reliability of Real Time Estimates of the EURO Area Output Gap
... real-time output gap estimates, including those provided by the IMF, OECD and EC and a set of model based ...area output gap estimates available from 1999 to ...real-time ...
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The Information Content of Capacity Utilisation Rates for Output Gap Estimates
... Output gap Considering the variety of techniques to estimate output gaps, the choice of how to specify our dependent variable is based on economic as well as pragmatic ...preferred output ...
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The Forecasting Performance of Real Time Estimates of the EURO Area Output Gap
... on output gap estimates in real time The large empirical literature on the predictive content of the output gap for inflation for the US tends to suggest that models relating inflation ...
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The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time
... for output gap based ...twelve output gap methods indicate that the output-gap-based forecasts are worse, on average, than the autoregressive ...nominal output growth ...
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Should we be surprised by the unreliability of real-time output gap estimates? Density estimates for the Euro area
... end-of-sample output gap (point) estimates to be unreliable, in the sense that there is a large and significant revision or forecasting error; see Orphanides & van Norden’s (2002) application to ...
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Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of Output Gap and Real Exchange Rate Cycles for Turkey
... accurate output gap is an important task for pol- icy maker institutions, especially central ...the gap between actual and potential GDP, so as to determine whether the economy needs more or less ...
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Testing the EU fiscal surveillance: How sensitive is it to variations in output gap estimates?
... Up until 2003 the Commission services had been regularly using the CAB and the minimum benchmark only as informal analytical tools for the analysis of the budgetary situation. 3 In March 2003, following the November 2002 ...
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Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of Output Gap and Real Exchange Rate Cycles for Turkey
... accurate output gap is an important task for pol- icy maker institutions, especially central ...the gap between actual and potential GDP, so as to determine whether the economy needs more or less ...
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Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance
... these estimates are likely to be further revised but we follow the convention of using the last available vintage as the closest approximation to what can be thought of as final ...these estimates, which ...
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An exploration of real-time revisions of output gap estimates across European countries
... in output gaps, we also explore revisions in their ...the output gap. In the event that consecutive revisions of the output gap cancel one another, this would lead to a limited revision ...
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Labour Gap, Output Gap and Inflation by Economic Sector: The case of Greece and the Peloponnese Region (2000 2007)
... In figure 11 we can see that the Peloponnese region operates at levels of output (production) higher than the potential ones, except for the year 2005. From the analysis of particular sectors we can see ...
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Estimating the Potential Output and Output Gap of Ghana
... potential output of Ghana. Potential output or its derivative the output gap are not ...“potential output” is a powerful conceptual tool that guides analysts and policymakers in gauging ...
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Applying the Hirose-Kamada filter to Swiss data: Output gap and exchange rate pass-through estimates
... potential output and consequently of the output gap convey important in- formation for both monetary and fiscal ...Potential output is defined as the level of production consistent with ...
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A study of potential output and output gap in the Czech Republic
... The applied estimation methods produced not entirely identical, but rather similar estimates of output gap. Periods of excess demand appear to have taken place in years 1999 and 2001 and again ...
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Recessions and Instable Estimates of Potential Output
... first year of a recession. Turning to the estimates for the post-recession PO revisions for the fifth year after the start of a recession shown in the right part of Table 3 reveals that we are able ...
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