Comparison with Official Output Gap Estimates
Output Gap Estimates in the WAEMU Zone
... potential output and output gap are important tools for central banks and in particular Central Bank of West African States to forecast inflation in pursuit of its priority objective of controlling ...
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Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap
... Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter ∗ G¨unes¸ Kamber, James Morley, and Benjamin Wong The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on autoregressive models produces ...
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The reliability of Canadian output gap estimates
... of output gap measurement errors on economic outcomes and their importance in the formulation of appropriate policy ...current estimates of the output gap in ...time output ...
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The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time
... real-time estimates of the output gap are ...post estimates of the gap, estimation errors appear to contain a highly persistent component of substantial size, and the real-time ...
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The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time
... the output gap has attracted relatively little academic ...end-of-sample) output gap without the benefit of knowing the future, most studies concentrate on measurement that employs data that ...
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the Reliability of Real Time Estimates of the EURO Area Output Gap
... real-time output gap estimates, including those provided by the IMF, OECD and EC and a set of model based ...area output gap estimates available from 1999 to ...real-time ...
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The Information Content of Capacity Utilisation Rates for Output Gap Estimates
... Output gap Considering the variety of techniques to estimate output gaps, the choice of how to specify our dependent variable is based on economic as well as pragmatic ...preferred output ...
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The Forecasting Performance of Real Time Estimates of the EURO Area Output Gap
... on output gap estimates in real time The large empirical literature on the predictive content of the output gap for inflation for the US tends to suggest that models relating inflation ...
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The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time
... respectively. Comparison of the entries in Table 4 with respective entries in Table 2 indicates that the forecast performance of all methods appears markedly worse in real- time than ...for output ...
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The Comparison of the Recent Crises in Turkey in terms of Output Gap
... Potential output is the level of activity that the economy can sustain, given the quantity and quality of its factors of production and ...term output gap for the first time in 1964. The ...
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Should we be surprised by the unreliability of real-time output gap estimates? Density estimates for the Euro area
... end-of-sample output gap (point) estimates to be unreliable, in the sense that there is a large and significant revision or forecasting error; see Orphanides & van Norden’s (2002) application to ...
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Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of Output Gap and Real Exchange Rate Cycles for Turkey
... the output gap estimates of Central Bank of Turkey as a benchmark, our results indicate that Beveridge-Nelson filter method yields more sensible ...
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Testing the EU fiscal surveillance: How sensitive is it to variations in output gap estimates?
... Up until 2003 the Commission services had been regularly using the CAB and the minimum benchmark only as informal analytical tools for the analysis of the budgetary situation. 3 In March 2003, following the November 2002 ...
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Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of Output Gap and Real Exchange Rate Cycles for Turkey
... noisy output gap ...sensible estimates of the US output gap that are reliable, intuitive, subject to less revisions and which moves closely with the National Bureau of Economic Research ...
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Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance
... these estimates are likely to be further revised but we follow the convention of using the last available vintage as the closest approximation to what can be thought of as final ...these estimates, which ...
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An exploration of real-time revisions of output gap estimates across European countries
... estimated output gaps in real time are downward- biased. In contrast, output gaps are upward-biased during economic ...because output gaps are downward-biased in real ...in output gaps are ...
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Estimating the Potential Output and Output Gap of Ghana
... potential output of Ghana. Potential output or its derivative the output gap are not ...“potential output” is a powerful conceptual tool that guides analysts and policymakers in gauging ...
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Applying the Hirose-Kamada filter to Swiss data: Output gap and exchange rate pass-through estimates
... potential output and consequently of the output gap convey important in- formation for both monetary and fiscal ...Potential output is defined as the level of production consistent with ...
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A study of potential output and output gap in the Czech Republic
... The applied estimation methods produced not entirely identical, but rather similar estimates of output gap. Periods of excess demand appear to have taken place in years 1999 and 2001 and again ...
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Which Output Gap Measure Matters for the Arab Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (AGCC): The Overall GDP Output Gap or the Non-Oil Sector Output Gap?
... the output gap provide a rather consistent profile of the nation’s business ...part, estimates of the overall output gap measures obtained from the different models insinuate that it ...
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