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Domestic Demand driven Growth: Analytical Perspectives and Statistics Needed

Domestic Demand driven Growth: Analytical Perspectives and Statistics Needed

compared to export-oriented ones reiterates the need for policy measures to boost productivity as part of the DDDG thrusts. Based on a suggested DDDG framework, whereby the fundamental sources of economic growth emanate from output and structural shifts to higher value activities, productivity increases and institutional quality improvements, the statistical needs are examined for each of the four suggested strategic DDDG thrusts. The paper reiterates that DDDG should not be viewed as a substitute for export-led growth (ELG) strategies. Rather, by harnessing the complementarities of the two paradigms, Malaysia can capture the growth opportunities arising from an upswing in external demand while mitigating the adverse effects on output and employment due to volatile export markets by strengthening the resilience of domestic demand.

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Residual exports and domestic demand: an empirical analysis

Residual exports and domestic demand: an empirical analysis

foreign sales (or reduce the number of destinations) and it focuses on national market when domestic demand is relatively high. Therefore, they emphasize the importance of fixed capital investment as a mechanism to explain the participation in both markets. The authors develop a heterogeneous firm model, based in Melitz (2003), where each firm knows its productivity parameter before entering to export market. This parameter indicates the profitability (or not) of export activity, due to it determines if firm may face to sunk cost or fixed capital investment associated to entry. Thus, model distinguishes two kinds of exporters depending on the level of fixed capital investment: occasional and perennial. On the one hand, occasional exporters use to be small and slightly efficient firms, and they base their export decisions according to the state of demand. These firms sell to foreign markets when domestic demand is relatively low and the fixed capital is “under-utilized”. On the other hand, perennial exporters use to be large firms with high efficient levels which invest enough capital to sell in domestic and foreign markets, regardless of demand. As in the previous papers, the main conclusion of this paper confirms the substitution relationship between domestic and foreign sales.

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Residual exports and domestic demand: an empirical analysis

Residual exports and domestic demand: an empirical analysis

As mentioned in previous section, the recent economic crisis has stimulated researches related with the relationship between the effects on the crisis in domestic and foreign markets. In this sense, Tiana (2012) analyzes the main factors to explain the behavior of the Spanish manufacturing industries during the crisis period, focusing on the evolution of domestic demand and the characteristics of the exports. On the one hand, he suggests that national demand has diminished due to the impact of the crisis in the construction industry, which causes direct and indirect spillovers. 1 In this sense, he points out the important decrease of the private consume and the investment in equipment due to the greater weakness of the Spanish economy compared with the rest of the EU countries. On the other hand, author indicates that exports have helped to absorb the crisis impact on industrial production and domestic demand. The progressive opening suffered by Spanish firms has reoriented the production to external markets, causing improvements the price-competitiveness. In particular, paper shows that Real Effective Exchange Rates increased 12% during the crisis from 2007 to 2012, while manufacturing exports, as stated above, augmented 8.5% in the same period. The effects of the economic crisis on the strategic choice between domestic and export sales have also been addressed in Lee et al. (2009). In this paper, authors analyze export intensity of Korean firms to changes derived from the Asian economic crisis in 1997. In this sense, they also observe a huge drop in domestic demand in the crisis period, distinguishing between two different types of firms according to their adaptation to those external economic changes and their domestic market position. On the one hand, they denote those firms with investment in flexible capabilities which may reorient their production to export market. On the other hand, authors identify those firms that are locked in with inflexible resources and tend to fail (exit of the

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Domestic demand for Indigenous tourism in Australia: understanding intention to participate

Domestic demand for Indigenous tourism in Australia: understanding intention to participate

It has been almost 10 years since Schmiechen and Boyle (2007) identi fi ed the issue of “ how to increase participation from the domestic market ” as a research priority in Australian Indigenous tour- ism. The domestic participation growth in Indigenous tourism has barely fl uctuated during these past 10 years, except for a slight increase in 2006 and 2007 (TRA, 2014a). Recent investigations into the motivations for, and barriers to, participating in Indigenous tourism have drawn special attention from researchers (Abascal et al., 2015; JDSP, 2009; Ruhanen et al., 2015a, 2015b). While Ruhanen et al. (2015a, 2015b) investigated domestic and international visitors, JDSP ’ s (2009) and Abascal ’ s et al. (2015) studies focused on the domestic market. Visitor motivations for, and barriers to, participating in Indigenous tourism have been investigated both from a quantitative approach (JDSP, 2009; Ruha- nen et al., 2015a, 2015b) and a qualitative approach (Abascal et al., 2015). Other studies, while not having a particular focus on motivations and barriers, provided insights into this topic from visitor, supplier, and trade perspectives (JDSP, 2009; Nielsen et al., 2008; Ruhanen et al., 2015a, 2015b; Ryan & Huyton, 2000, 2002). The overall results suggest that there is a misunderstanding of the visitor motivations and barriers between visitors, Indigenous tourism operators, and trading organisations. One reason for the discrepancies between the range of motivations and barriers identi fi ed within var- ious studies could be the methodological differences between the studies. It is also important to point out that Abascal et al. (2015) only investigated two Indigenous tourism activities that were available at the destination where the research was conducted. JDSP (2009), Ryan and Huyton (2000, 2002), and Ruhanen et al. (2015a, 2015b) investigated various tourism activities and/or attractions that were not necessarily offered at the destination where the research was conducted. Finally, Niel- sen ’ s et al. (2008) study focused on general views of both the mainstream and Indigenous tourism industries in Queensland, and not on site-speci fi c Indigenous tourism activities. Additionally, none of these previous studies have attempted to make the distinction between person/internal (i.e. lack of interest) and situation/external (i.e. lack of awareness) issues. According to Malle (1999, p. 37), not identifying these factors could “lead to a serious of loss of information and may distort psychological relevant distinctions among reasons”. Therefore, investigating these factors, through a social psychol- ogy lens, may provide a deeper understanding of visitor behaviour.

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Domestic thermal storage requirements for heat demand flexibility

Domestic thermal storage requirements for heat demand flexibility

There are frequent statements made in energy strategy and planning documents that demand flexibility will play a key role in the stable operation of a future, low-carbon energy system in which major demands such as heat and transport are decarbonised [1,2,3]. The built environment is the biggest UK energy end-user and the main component of this is housing. Around 80% of domestic demand is hot water and space heating [4], so any large-scale, flexible demand capability should encompass domestic heat. Temporal flexibility in heat demand will be essential if heat is decarbonised through electrification - uncontrolled, this has the potential to significantly increase electrical demand variability and peak demands [5]. However, many questions arise as to the feasibility and acceptability of widespread heating flexibility. Moving the timing of heat demand without adversely affecting the comfort of householders and the availability of hot water requires thermal storage (e.g. hot water tanks, electric storage heating, etc.). Storage increases the cost and complexity of domestic energy systems, uses valuable space and increases energy use due to parasitic losses. It also runs contrary to the trends in housing which have seen a huge rise in gas central heating and the

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Potentials and Constraints of Small Scale Livestock Productions in Cambodia

Potentials and Constraints of Small Scale Livestock Productions in Cambodia

Opportunities ( O ): Despite all odds, the domestic demand and international demand from neighboring countries for livestock is expanding. One of the rea- son for the domestic increase is increase in population while the demand for the neighboring country comes as a result of it cheapness in the country especially cattle prices. In the study area, majority of the farmers reported selling stock of their livestock to Vietnamese and customer from Thailand. In most cases, the neighboring countries come into the country to bargain then convey back to their countries. Few cases of the Battambang farmers transporting to the border of Thailand is recorded. Regional Polytechnic Institute TechoSen Battambang (RPITSB), Ministry of Labor and Vocational Training (MLVT), Ministry of Agriculture Forest and Fishery (MAFF), FAO, ADB, World Bank, and some other local projects provide the training to the farmers and provision of new animal breeds and techniques. Some of the supports of these departments and organizations include 1) providing the new breed (chicken, pig and cattle), 2) technical training of small-scale livestock production, 3) feed and animal feeding technique for extension training, 4) grasses and new species in cultivation train- ing (for cattle), 5) agricultural diversification system training, 6) biogas training and 7) village animal worker or veterinarian for training program. Among all these, the new breed and techniques were most significant to be considered.

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The Relationship among Gross Barter Terms of Trade, Exchange Rates, and Economic Growth: A Case in Turkey

The Relationship among Gross Barter Terms of Trade, Exchange Rates, and Economic Growth: A Case in Turkey

According to the elasticity approach, the main determinant of foreign trade balance among the main items of the current account balance is the relative international prices. Accordingly, the decline in value of the national currency against foreign currencies increases the price of import goods and reduces imports due to decreasing demand. Meanwhile, the price of export goods decreases and exports increase with the rise in foreign demand. Thus, the foreign trade deficit will be closed due to decreasing import expenses and increasing export revenues. In this context, the depreciation of the national currency depends on the Marshall- Lerner condition in the international economics literature to bring about a healing result of the foreign trade balance. Assuming that supply elasticities are infinite, this condition is expressed as the sum of domestic demand elasticity (e m ) of the imported goods and foreign demand elasticity (e x ) of the exported goods being ≥1 (Ordu, 2013. p. 45).

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Stimulation of Employment in Neo-Classical Models

Stimulation of Employment in Neo-Classical Models

The purpose of this paper is to provide a complete, formal explanation of the ORANI employment response to an increase in domestic demand. In so doing, this study examines whether or not the apparent Keynesian result given by ORANI is consistent with the model’s underlying neo-classical structure. The analysis begins in section 2 using a three-sector model designed to capture the essential structure of ORANI. In section 3 the theoretical insights obtained from this small model are tested using Miniature ORANI (MO). MO is in some respects more comprehensive than the three-sector model; in particular, MO recognises intermediate inputs which are absent from the former. Because MO has only two sectors, however, its treatment of non-traded goods is not adequate. Jointly, the two miniatures provide a suitable vehicle for developing hypotheses about the relevant mechanisms in ORANI. Having identified the main mechanisms, full scale simulations are conducted with ORANI itself. Due to its computational simplicity, MO proves to be a useful link between the three-sector model developed in this paper and ORANI, the complexity of which makes computation of the required large number of experiments unwieldy. Finally, section 4 provides some concluding remarks.

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The Downside of Domestic Substitution of Oil with Biofuels: Will Brazil Catch the Dutch Disease?

The Downside of Domestic Substitution of Oil with Biofuels: Will Brazil Catch the Dutch Disease?

Contraction in the gaso-alcohol industry causes output of petroleum refining (row 22) and petroleum and gas extraction (row 5) to fall. However the potential falls in output of these two upstream industries is mitigated by export expansion. As domestic demand for gasoline declines, much of the resulting surplus is taken up by expansion in exports. This reflects our assumption that Brazil faces high export demand elasticities for petroleum products. As a result of expanded petroleum exports, exports of other commodities for which Brazil has more market power are able to decline. It is the decline in other exports that accounts for the terms of trade gain in Table 7 (row 18, column B). For non-gasoline exports to contract, the real exchange rate must appreciate. This accounts for the rise in the real exchange rate in Table 7 (row 17, column B). This explains the contraction of export and import competing sectors such as mining and quarrying (row 4), machinery, tractors and equipment, electrical machinery, office machinery, motor vehicles, other vehicles and automotive parts, wood and wood products, pulp, paper, paper prods, print’g and publ’g and rubber products (rows 10–17), plastic products (row 25), textiles (row 26), footwear products (row 28) and miscellaneous manufacturing (row 35). The adjustment mechanism constitutes an indirect Dutch disease effect resulting from exports of oil substituted by ethanol in the domestic market.

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The world economy [March 2006]

The world economy [March 2006]

Table 2 illustrates the components of demand and main macroeconomic indicators for the period 2004 to 2006 for the US, Japan, the Euro Area and the UK. For those countries where growth in domestic demand drops significantly then the outcome for GDP growth is also poorer. However in the US and Japan investment growth has declined sharply between 2004 and 2005 while government spending has also fallen. In the US export growth is forecast to fall steadily while in Japan this is forecast to rise again in 2006. We can also compare the growing US deficit over 2004 to 2005 with the surplus position of Japan when we examine the current account (as a percentage of GDP). It can be seen that as domestic demand does not increase fast enough in the Euro Area or in the UK, then the CA position worsens and indeed the Euro Area shifts from a surplus position to a deficit position. Export growth outpaces import growth but the volume of imports is still larger than that of exports. In general the effective exchange rate weakens as the CA position deteriorates. Table 2 therefore provides a clear indication of the likely future drivers of change and main trends over the period 2004 to 2006, highlighting the improvement in the Japanese position and the change in the US. United States

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The Impact Of Government Expenditure On GDP, Employment And Private Investment A CGE Model Approach

The Impact Of Government Expenditure On GDP, Employment And Private Investment A CGE Model Approach

In this model, the assumption of qualitative difference between domestic products and import commodities is considered. On domestic demand side, this qualitative difference is taken into consideration under the assumption of imperfect substitution between import and domestic products which are supplied in domestic market. It means that if a specific good has an import equivalent, aggregate domestic demand –for households , government consumption, investment and intermediate demand – is prepared by combination of import goods and domestic products (in another word it is called composite commodity).

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Efficient Components on Livestock Products Export in Iran

Efficient Components on Livestock Products Export in Iran

Regarding agricultural product exports, studies are mainly conducted by using econometric methods, but they are also taken in the context of some other methods, includ- ing SWOT analysis to examine strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing agriculture export that the real exchange rate deviation from long run equilib- rium path, the real exchange rate fluctuations and the pressure of domestic demand for exportable goods im- pact on the supply of agricultural exports negatively and the relative price of exportable agricultural products, sudden changes in agricultural production and technical advances impact on the supply of agricultural products exports positively [4]. It has been also studied a new out- look on non-oil product exports and examined affecting impacts on the supply exportable animal products [5]. Khalilian and Farhadi [6] showed that agricultural value added (production capacity), the relative prices of ex- ports and domestic consumption (domestic demand) have a significant impact on supplying agricultural product exports, whereas the effect of real exchange rate on ex- ports of agricultural products supply is not significant which shows the reason of inappropriateness of govern- mental foreign exchange policies agricultural product exports in studied period. Shakeri [7] studied the role played by cost and non-cost factors in non-oil exports using the ARDL technique and concluded that non-oil exports depends on productivity variables and competi- tiveness and although exchange rate variables have a positive effect on exports, this effect is not significant and decisive. While removing cost effective performance obstacles to increase Exports, the on non-cost variables such as productivity and competitiveness should be em- phasized too. In their study, Biria and Jabal Ameli [2] examined the factors affecting pistachios, saffron, dates in the basket of Iranian goods exportation. Results of studies indicate that price policies have no positive im- pact on revenue from no-noil exports. Therefore, those policies should be devised that lead to encourage and increase production as well as to supply agricultural pro- ducts and their diversification. Paspan [1] studied factors affecting Iran’s saffron exports using export supply func-

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Equilibrium in a Non Interest Open Economy

Equilibrium in a Non Interest Open Economy

An Islamic financial system can be characterized as one in which there are no risk- free assets and where all financial arrangements are based on risk and return sharing. Hence, all financial assets are contingent claims (1) and there are no debt instruments with fixed and/or predetermined rates of return. A fundamental principle that emerges from theoretical studies of such a system is that the returns to financial assets are primarily determined by the returns to the real sector. This principle implies that the rate of return of capital is the mechanism through which the demand and supply of loanable funds is equilibrated. The argument follows from the fact that the source of profit in an economy is the addition to total output, and once the labor is paid its distributive share, the residual is then divided between the entrepreneur and the surplus fund holder (Haque and Mirakhor 1987). Since this residual is an ex post variable, it follows that the return to surplus funds invested on profit-sharing basis cannot be determined ex ante. In a system where the only assets that exist are those representing ownership claims to

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Trend extrapolation of domestic air travel demand in Nigeria (2018-2030)

Trend extrapolation of domestic air travel demand in Nigeria (2018-2030)

Adeniran and Kanyio [5] conducted a study on long term forecasting of international air travel demand in Nigeria. Yearly data from 2001 to 2017 were collected from secondary sources and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression was used to forecast the ten years (2018 to 2028) demand for international air passenger travel in Nigeria. The demand for international air passenger in Nigeria from year 2001 to 2017 was compared with the forecast. Calculation reveals that the coefficient of determination R 2 is 0.815, while the computed reveals that the coefficient of determination R 2 is 0.769; this difference can be attributed to approximate the two decimal places for calculated test. The calculated test and the computed test reveal that the error term was minimal and the explanation level was high; hence the prediction or forecast was reliable. The forecast for years 2020, 2025, and 2028 are 5,282,453, 6,342,519, and 6,978,559, respectively which are about 48 percent increase, 78 percent increase, and 95 percent increase respectively from demand in year 2017. The forecast of ten years from year 2018 to year 2028 reveals that there will be more increase in the demand for international air passenger travel in Nigeria. It is important to note that the study of Adeniran and Kanyio [5] is quite reliable for this study but it is limited to international passenger demand and not domestic passenger demand in Nigeria. Adeniran and Stephens [6] established the dynamics for evaluating different forecasting methods for international air passenger demand in Nigeria using two single moving average, four single moving average, and six single moving average; the same forecast was also achieved by using simple exponential smoothing with smoothing constants of 0.7, 0.8, and 0.9, respectively. The most appropriate forecasting method was determined by comparing all the single moving averages with exponential smoothing. The data involved for the study was between the periods of year 2001 to year 2017; meanwhile the single moving average and the simple exponential smoothing were compared using the Mean Squared Deviation (MSD). It was revealed that the MSD of exponential smoothing with constant 0.8 appears to give the best year 2018 forecast as it has a lower MSD when is compared to the MSD of the other forecasts. Their study is limited to evaluating forecasting techniques for international air passenger demand and not on long term forecasting for domestic passenger demand.

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Price Forecasting Model for Perishable Commodities: A Case of Tomatoes in Punjab, Pakistan

Price Forecasting Model for Perishable Commodities: A Case of Tomatoes in Punjab, Pakistan

Prices of tomato show unwanted increases some times during the year which is primarily due to demand pressures during specific days like Ramadan and Eid-ul-Azha and during restricted supply from India during Dewali. Considering the fact that Punjab meets around 31% of its total demand through domestic production that create demand and supply gap at domestic level and results in heavy reliance on imports from other provinces of the country and from India 2 . This study aims to develop a comprehensive theoretical model for tomato prices in dynamic framework keeping in view the structure of the market. It naturally diverts us to first develop an in-depth understanding of the structure of the market through survey of literature and demand supply gap analysis. Forecasting is used to determine how to allocate resources and to plan for anticipated expenses for the upcoming period of time. Forecast is based on the projected demand for the goods and services and supply of the goods and services offered in the markets. Various studies [Box & Jenkins, (1970), Engle, (1982), Ayyub R.M. et al (2011)] forecasted the prices using the univariate models like ARMA, ARIMA, ARCH, GARCH etc. The study by Anwar, et. al (2016) forecasted the prices by using the time series moving averages on the historical data for potato prices. The studies that presented the hedonic model to forecast the house prices includes [Limsombunchao, V. (2004), Griliches, Z. (1961)]. However, the alternative models like Structural Vector Autoregressive models should be preferred over the others due to structural underpinning and theoretical adequacy (Yeh, C. Y. et al, 2011).

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Carry Trade, Forward Premium Puzzle and Currency Crisis

Carry Trade, Forward Premium Puzzle and Currency Crisis

We consider that investors trade two currencies: the domestic currency, and the foreign currency. Investors are divided into two groups, rational investors and carry traders. The rational investors chooses that the portfolio of currencies which will maximize his/her expected utility of end-of-period wealth using asset-pricing models such as the CAPM (see e.g., Mossin (1966) and Lintner (1969)). On the other hand, carry

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Chinas’ temporal emissions from final demand of domestic and imported goods.

Chinas’ temporal emissions from final demand of domestic and imported goods.

In the wake of growing international pressure its utmost important for China to curb its carbon emissions. For that it has to first fully understand the causes of its carbon emissions and then advise mitigation policies accordingly. If final consumption is the ultimate cause for emissions its utmost vital to fully understand Chinas’ final demand categories and related factors in order to properly device mitigation policies. This paper is an attempt to further understand Chinas’ embodied emissions in to relevant categories of final demand for domestic and imported goods. While China is the main focal point the study was also conducted to point out general lack of splitting embodied emissions into relevant categories i.e. Household, Government and capital for final domestic plus imported goods and services in related literature.

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Elasticity of demand for domestic air transport in vietnam by price and income

Elasticity of demand for domestic air transport in vietnam by price and income

is importance elements for managers of airline to have suitable business policies as well as government planer to have a policy of competition and balanced development between modes of transport. In Vietnam, before 2012 Vietnam Airlines has played a key role in air transport in the domestic market with over 80% market share, the rest mainly was operated by Jetstar-Pacific Airlines. However, from 2012 with the appearance of VietJet Air operating under the model of LCC, the competition in air transport in Vietnam domestic market has become fierce. The airlines have been constantly competing against each other by differences and especially by price. In addition, per capita income in Vietnam is constantly increasing. These factors have contributed significantly to the growth in demand for air travel in Vietnam's domestic market. It has increased by nearly 30% a year in recent years and has benefited both the people and the nation. This paper studies the elasticity of air transport demand in Vietnam'

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Explaining the Employment Effect of Exports: Value Added Content Matters

Explaining the Employment Effect of Exports: Value Added Content Matters

the three exporters, the U.S., China, and Japan. We expect the coefficient for forward linkages to be positive because it would lead to a greater input demand from foreign countries. One may expect the coefficient for backward linkages to be negative because greater inputs from abroad reduce domestic value-added contents. However, the direction of the effect is nontrivial. For instance, Feng, Li, and Swenson (2016) find that an increase in intermediate good imports in China increased China’s exports due to quality upgrading caused by better intermediate inputs. If there are such channels, deeper backward linkages may increase the employment effect of exports. Sectoral export shares in the natural resource, textile, and service sectors are expected to have positive signs because these sectors have greater domestic value-added contents. 19

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Application-oriented modelling of domestic energy demand

Application-oriented modelling of domestic energy demand

haviour on the residential load. In this application, the e ff ects of changes in the customer behaviour can be simulated mod- ifying the time of use (TOU) probabilities in the basic appli- ance definitions of the proposed model. These modifications in the customer behaviour related to the usage of household appli- ances provide us with an opportunity to achieve certain demand curve shaping, especially a demand flattening. As an applica- tion example the possible changes in the daily average demand of a household with PV installation has been studied. The orig- inal demand of this household, where the power production of the photovoltaic panel has been considered as a negative con- sumption, shows a very low level at midday and a generally high variation throughout the day (see Fig. 5). For the same ex- ample household the usage of washing appliances was limited to periods from 2 am to 4.45 am and from 9 am to 3.45 pm. In the obtained results, given in Fig. 6, it can be observed that the changed user behaviour considerably reduced the demand variations during the day. The application developed on top of the consumer demand model can be further used by end-users or energy companies to analyse the e ff ect of possible modifica- tions in the customer habits.

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