Impact of Climate Change on Water

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A global assessment of the impact of climate change
on water scarcity

A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

Abstract This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are estimated to be currently living within watersheds exposed to water scarcity. Using the WCI, by 2050 under the A1B scenario, 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity due to climate change (range across 21 GCMs). This represents a higher upper-estimate than previous assessments because scenarios are constructed from a wider range of GCMs. A substantial proportion of the uncertainty in the global-scale effect of climate change on water scarcity is due to uncertainty in the estimates for South Asia and East Asia. Sensitivity to the WCI and WSI thresholds that define water scarcity can be comparable to the sensitivity to climate change pattern. More of the world will see an increase in exposure to water scarcity than a decrease due to climate change but this is not consistent across all climate change patterns. Additionally, investigation of the effects of a set of prescribed global mean temperature change scenarios show rapid increases in water scarcity due to climate change across many regions of the globe, up to 2 °C, followed by stabilisation to 4 °C.
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Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources of Dokan Dam Watershed

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources of Dokan Dam Watershed

During the last few decades, Iraq faced extreme climate events represented as severe drought recorded between 2007 and 2009 followed by heavy rainfall oc- curred in a few months in southern parts of Iraq with almost two times of nor- mal records [8]. Admo et al. [9] applied six General Circulation Models (GCMs) in SWAT model to investigate the impact of climate change on water resources of Tigris River under three scenarios of future climate change which are A2, A1B and B1 of highest, medium and lowest. They summarized that the precipitation will decrease in overall five tributaries (Khabour, Greater Zab, Lesser Zab, Adhaim and Diyala) of Tigris River Basin, at the same time meaning the surface and ground water will decrease as the reflection of increasing temperature and decreasing in precipitation. It is recommended to investigat the impact of climate change for each tributary alone. Abbas et al. [10] used SWAT to quantify the impact of cli- mate change in Lesser Zab River, they indicated that the blue water will decrease by the range from 8% to 43% in 2046. In addition, the green water will decrease by 5% to 24% in 2046 under A1B scenario. Abbas et al. [11] explored the rela- tionship between climate change and its impact on water resources of Tigris River tributaries using SWAT model. The results showed that the precipitation will be reduced by 12.6% and 21% in the period from 2049 to 2069 and distant the period from 2080 to 2099 futures, respectively under RCP8.5. Consequently, the blue water will decreases by 22.6% and 40% under RCP8.5, 25.8% and 46% under RCP4.5, and 34.4% and 31% under RCP2.6 during the periods from 2049 to 2069 and 2080 to 2099, respectively. Ali et al. [12] used Sen’s slope and the Mann-Kendall test to assess the streamflow trend of Lesser Zab River for the pe- riod 1964 to 2013. They indicated that stream flow would decrease by 5.09 m 3 /month in April and 1.06 m 3 /month in November with annual rate of de-
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Impact of climate change on water in south Sudan

Impact of climate change on water in south Sudan

2014 after attaining its independency from Sudan in 2011 after a 98.8% vote in a referendum for self-determination. As one of the least developed countries, which is vulnerable to climate change impacts, having emerged from a long civil war, the country is being faced with a lot of challenges ranging from effects of war to institutional development and economic prosperity. South Sudan is vulnerable to the effects of climate change and associated socioeconomic losses and damages due to the dependence of its population on climate sensitive natural resources for their livelihoods. Given the frequent droughts experienced in the country, a major priority is to promote the harvesting and retention of water for different uses. The poor quality of water can directly impact the water availability, this paper search the possible implication of climate change for the use and management of water resources in South Sudan. By observation there is changes in river water quality and quantity and climate change is serious increased demands for water and give more pressure on water resource because of the impact and is not only from climate also from non-climatic flooding and drought etc.
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Economic Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources

Economic Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources

Antarctic ice sheets (Yao et al., 2012; Bolch et al., 2012). These glaciers dis- charge meltwater into the largest rivers in south Asia (Fig. 4), which are critical water resources in the populous regions sur- rounding the Himalayas. In 2009, the Third Pole Environment (TPE) program was launched in part to study the response of this remote region to climate change (http://www.tpe.ac.cn). The TPE program includes a strong educational component, as well as an integrated study of paleo- records to develop the context essential to assess and address the impact of anthro- pogenic activities. Beside the larger-scale impacts that are yet to unfold, people who live in areas affected by glacial retreat are already experiencing the consequences. For example, in 2006, a lake that had grown from the melting of Quelccaya’s Qori Kalis outlet glacier (see Fig. 2J) breached its moraine dam after an avalanche and flooded the valley below, drowning herds of grazing alpacas. Emblematic of these concerns, the National Research Council of the National Academies also conducted a study to assess the role of Himalayan glaciers within the context of climate
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Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in the Upper Senegal Basin (West Africa)

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in the Upper Senegal Basin (West Africa)

Long-term observational records and climate projections provide abundant evidence that freshwater resources are vulnerable and have the potential to be strongly impacted by climate change, with wide-ranging cones- quences for human societies and ecosystems [1]. These consequences are more severe in regions dominated by arid and semiarid climate such as West Africa (WA). Then, Africa as a whole is one of the most vulnerable con- tinents due to its high exposure and low adaptive capacity [2]. Several impact studies over WA have shown that water resources are significantly impacted by climate change [3]-[9]. For much of Africa, knowledge about re- cent climate change is limited, due to weak climate monitoring, and gaps in coverage that continue to exist [10]. The well known droughts in the 1970s have led to a decline of water flows in many African river basins. Also, the Senegal River Basin, which is situated in WA, has faced those droughts. Its annual average flow at Bakel (reference station) fell from 1374 m 3 /sec over the period 1903-1950 to 840 m 3 /sec in the period 1950-1972 and further decreased to only 419 m 3 /sec in the period 1973-2002 [11]. The drought has reduced rain-fed agriculture, decreased the seasonal flooding of wetlands, limited economic development, and in the overall, enhanced pov- erty [12]. Such water shortage has obviously affected the main activities in the basin (agriculture, fishery, hy- dropower generation, etc.). As water is the agent that delivers many of the impacts of climate change to society, for example to the energy, agriculture, and transport sectors [10], it is fundamental to investigate how climate change will affect this valuable resource in the future. A series of studies has already been carried out over the Senegal River basin in order to analyze the ability of models to simulate the basin’s climate, but also to quantify projected climate changes
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Climate change impact on water resource extremes in a headwater region of the Tarim basin in China

Climate change impact on water resource extremes in a headwater region of the Tarim basin in China

Abstract. The Tarim river basin in China is a huge in- land arid basin, which is expected to be highly vulnerable to climatic changes, given that most water resources origi- nate from the upper mountainous headwater regions. This paper focuses on one of these headwaters: the Kaidu river subbasin. The climate change impact on the surface and ground water resources of that basin and more specifically on the hydrological extremes were studied by using both lumped and spatially distributed hydrological models, after simulation of the IPCC SRES greenhouse gas scenarios till the 2050s. The models include processes of snow and glacier melting. The climate change signals were extracted from the grid-based results of general circulation models (GCMs) and applied on the station-based, observed historical data using a perturbation approach. For precipitation, the time series perturbation involves both a wet-day frequency perturbation and a quantile perturbation to the wet-day rainfall intensi- ties. For temperature and potential evapotranspiration, the climate change signals only involve quantile based changes. The perturbed series were input into the hydrological models and the impacts on the surface and ground water resources studied. The range of impact results (after considering 36 GCM runs) were summarized in high, mean, and low results. It was found that due to increasing precipitation in winter, snow accumulation increases in the upper mountainous ar- eas. Due to temperature rise, snow melting rates increase and the snow melting periods are pushed forward in time.
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Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

climate change, but in most cases only one or two hydrolog- ical impact models are applied (Gosling and Arnell, 2011; Oki et al., 2003; Nijssen et al., 2001; D¨oll et al., 2003; Hage- mann et al., 2011). Recent studies (Haddeland et al., 2011; Gosling et al., 2011), however, showed that differences be- tween hydrological models are also a major source of un- certainty, and it was suggested that multiple impact models should be used for climate change impact studies (Haddeland et al., 2011). The present study summarizes some of the ma- jor outcomes of the European Union project WATCH (WATer and global CHange; http://www.eu-watch.org). Here, climate projections from three state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere– ocean general circulation models (GCMs), eight global hy- drology models (GHMs) and two emission scenarios are used to assess the response of the terrestrial hydrological cycle to climate change and subsequent changes in available wa- ter resources. In this respect, this is not only the first study to investigate future water resources using multiple GCMs and GHMs and emission scenarios, but it is also rigorous be- cause eight GHMs were applied, which is by far the most applied in any global climate change impact study thus far. As GCM simulations are significantly affected by systematic errors, and results from a directly forced hydrological simu- lation will be unrealistic and of little use (Sharma et al., 2007; Hansen et al., 2006), bias-corrected GCM output was used to force the GHMs.
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Hydrological Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Lake Tana’s Water Balance, Ethiopia

Hydrological Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Lake Tana’s Water Balance, Ethiopia

The aim of this study is to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change on the water bal- ance of Lake Tana in Ethiopia. Impact assessments are by downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) output and hydrological modeling. For A2 and B2 emission scenarios, precipitation, maxi- mum and minimum temperature estimates from the HadCM3 GCM were used. GCM output was downscaled using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM 4.2). Impact analyses were applied for three future time periods: early, mid and late 21st century. Over-lake evaporation is estimated by Hardgrave’s method, and over-lake precipitation is estimated by inverse distance weighing inter- polation, whereas inflows from gauged and ungauged catchments are simulated by the HBV hy- drological model. Findings indicate increases in maximum and minimum temperature on annual base for both emission scenarios. The projection of mean annual over lake precipitation for both A2 and B2 emission scenarios shows increasing pattern for 21 st century in comparison to the
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Importance of stream temperature to climate change impact on water quality

Importance of stream temperature to climate change impact on water quality

Climate change also impacts phytoplankton biomass. In both stations, this effect is mostly due to water warming (Fig. 8). During the growth period (January to April), biomass is higher under climate change, because growth is enhanced at higher temperatures. During the rest of year, when phytoplankton biomass is smaller because the loss rate, induced by numerous loss factors (zooplankton, viruses and benthic molluscs) is larger than the growth rate, phytoplank- ton biomass is reduced under climate change. The reason is that temperature enhances the loss rate more than the growth rate. Phytoplankton is largely dominated in the Seine River network by siliceous algae, Diatoms, which take up dissolved silica as a nutrient. Therefore, the concentration of the lat- ter constitutes an integrated indicator of the upstream phyto- plankton growth, and the above two phases are clearly illus- trated by the dissolved silica concentrations. They are sepa- rated by the minimum of silica concentration, and display an opposite response to climate change, with decreased concen- trations during the enhanced growth period, and increased concentration afterwards, when growth is inhibited by en- hanced loss factors. Dissolved silica concentrations also show that, during this latter phase, the overall decrease in phytoplankton biomass results from two opposed effects, the impact of warming on loss factors hiding a smaller growth increase related to discharge reduction (as revealed by the differences between simulations ACT and ACT+A2-Tw), by means of increased nutrient concentrations (as illustrated for ammonium), or increased residence time, or both.
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Climate Change and Impact on Water Resources

Climate Change and Impact on Water Resources

The vulnerability of the Indian subcontinent to the impact of changing climate is of vital importance because the major impact of climate change in this continent would be on the hydrology, affecting water resources and agricultural economy. However, very little work has been carried out in India on the impact of climate change on hydrology. The major river systems of the Indian subcontinent, namely Brahmaputra, Ganga and Indus which originate in the Himalayas, are expected to be vulnerable to climate change because of substantial contribution from snow and glaciers into these river systems. It is understood that the global warming and its impact on the hydro logical cycle and the nature of hydrological events would pose an additional threat to the Himalayan region. Basically, the climate change direct emphasis on floods and droughts disasters. Additional effects of global climate change that have important implications for water resources include increased evaporation rates, a higher proportion of precipitation received as rain, rather than snow, earlier and shorter runoff seasons, increased water temperatures, and decreased water quality in both inland and coastal areas. Increased evaporation rates are expected to reduce water supplies in many regions. The greatest deficits are expected to occur in the summer, leading to decreased soil moisture levels and more frequent and severe agricultural drought. More frequent and severe droughts arising from climate change will have serious management implications for water resource users (Ministry of Earth Science, 2015).
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Impact of Climate Change on Water Resource in Mongolia

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resource in Mongolia

87 0 44’E and 119 0 Mongolia has a relatively high territory altitude, the height of latitude is 1,590m above sea level almost 82% of the country territory is above 1,000, making it a mountainous area which also making inaccessible and half of the territory is higher than 1,400m.Mongolia is covering 1.5 million square km. with more than 3 million population (M. o. E. a. T. o. Mongolia, 2018). The country is engulfed by high mountains that has relative height of 1500m, and this high range apparently block the window of advection of the air that blow from the North and the warm one that comes from the West .the humid flux transport from Pacific and through Indian oceans is blocked here because the uniqueness of this place (Ministry of Environment, 2015). Mongolia is a semi desert and geographically steppes, Mongolia is only 3 regions North, South, and Central these regions differs in their terrains, Climate, Precipitation and minerals. West of the county is covered by many huge forests. Central Mongolia is a home, major characteristics steppes, and south is desert. (Sato).
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Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources Management in the Lower Chao Phraya Basin, Thailand

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources Management in the Lower Chao Phraya Basin, Thailand

flood season. However, there are a few application studies in Thailand. [7]-[10] have exploited MIKE11 model to predict sea level affecting salinity intrusion and agricultural production in Tha Chin, Mae Klong and Chao Phraya rivers. Metropolitan Waterworks Authority (MWA) reported that salinity intrusion and raw water supply in Chao Phraya River was affected by climate change.

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Economic Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources

Economic Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources

The climatic average (2000–2001 and 2004–2005) seasons used in the present study were chosen from winter climate data from the past 12 yr that best repre- sent the 1961–1990 climatic average (temperature and precipitation) for winter seasons (December to Febru- ary) (NOAA 2008). These seasons represent the sec- ond and third best representations of an average sea- son in the region for the past 112 yr. The absolute best climatologically average year actually occurred in 1987, prior to the large-scale regional expansion of snowmaking, which was not complete until the mid to late 1990s. Because snowmaking is an integral part of ski area operations today, the climatically normal year 1987 was not used in the present study as it was not directly comparable to current standard operating con- ditions in the study area. Furthermore, other major fac- tors influencing ski business were different 20 yr ago (e.g. ski participation rates, interest rates, travel costs, ski business models). Since the mid-1990s, ski area business models have stayed reasonably consistent (i.e. heavy real estate development, diversified rev- enue sources, establishment of conglomerates), there- fore allowing for a more reliable comparison between marginal and average ski area performance during this timeframe. Normal baseline years were selected as close to the analogue years as possible in order to min- imize the influence of other major factors that affect the ski industry over time frames of 1 to 5 yr (e.g. general economic conditions, fuel prices, new competitors, growth–recession, interest rates). By carefully select- ing baseline years for comparison, the influence of climate variability is isolated as much as possible. However, the extent to which other major business fac- tors were controlled for by using this method remains uncertain.
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Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability in the Weyib River Basin, Southeastren Ethiopia

Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability in the Weyib River Basin, Southeastren Ethiopia

Data necessary for this study comprises (i) daily weather data, (ii) spatial data (DEM, soil map and properties and LULC) and (iii) discharge/streamflow data. Daily weather data has been collected from National Meteorological Service Agency of Ethiopia (NMSA) for twelve weather stations that are established inside the basin and in nearby vicinity of the basin boundary of the Weyib River Basin. A 30 m resolution DEM obtained from ASTER official website was used for this study. Soil map as well as major soil physicochemical properties and LULC map was found from MoWE (Ministry of Water and Energy of Ethiopia). The streamflow, daily, data of the watershed at Alemkerem gaging station was found from Hydrology department of the MoWE. This data (discharge/streamflow) has been employed in ArcSWAT model sensitivity, testing and verification analysis. The standard procedure of ArcGis interface ArcSWAT hydrologic model was applied to delineate the watershed, determination of hydrological response units (HRUs), sensitivity analysis, model calibration and validation and sensitivity analysis. ArcSWAT hydrologic model was successfully calibrated and validated for the study area of Weyib River basin by [1].
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Impact of Climate Change on Water Resource Management. Case study on Kura basin

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resource Management. Case study on Kura basin

Abstract- The effects of climate change on freshwater systems and their management occurs mainly due to the observed and projected increase in temperature, increase in precipitation, rise in sea level and precipitation variability. By this, climate warming accelerates the global water cycle on the planet, making arid regions even drier and leading to flooding in the wet ones. According to the findings of scientists, made on the basis of 13 years satellite observations, the warming of the Earth's climate leads to increased evaporation of water from the surface of the oceans, which causes more rainfall than before, that riverbeds return to the ocean. The volume of water circulating in this cycle, increasing annually by 1.5%. For the period from 1994 to 2006, the volume of fresh water annually entering the oceans has increased by 18%. Since more than a sixth of the world's population lives in river basins supplied by meltwater of glaciers and snow, those people will affect the reduction of the water volume stored in glaciers and snow cover, raising the ratio of volume of winter to annual flows, and possibly a reduction in minimum flows. Sea level rise will expand the area of salinization of groundwater and estuaries that will reduce water availability for people and ecosystems in coastal areas. The increased intensity and variability of precipitation, according to forecasts, will increase the risk of flooding and drought in many areas. Up to 20% of the world population lives in river basins that are to 2080 years is likely to face increased flooding risks in the course of global warming. Thus, increasing of water temperature, precipitation increase and the increase of periods of minimum runoff is likely to exacerbate many forms of water pollution that will have consequences for ecosystems, human health, reliability of water supply and operating costs for these systems.
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Impact of Climate Change on Water Resource Management in Zanzibar

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resource Management in Zanzibar

Over the next few years, an increasing population and increasing use of water will put increasing pressure on global water resources: pressures will increase most rapidly in Africa and parts of southern Asia. Climate change has the potential to exacerbate water resource stresses in some areas, but ameliorate them in others [2]. These systems are under increasing strain due to rapid population growth in coastal areas, combined with the small proportion of the global renewable water supply contained within these aquifers. Coastal aquifers contain the fresh-saline interface between terrestrial and oceanic hydrological systems with modern seawater intrusion occurring due to both natural and anthropogenic causes. Groundwater abstraction is one of the leading causes of salt water intrusion with cases of over-pumping well documented around the world [7].
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Economic Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources

Economic Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources

is snowfall, and expenditure, which is mostly melting – show that loss of ice is even taking place at a rate considerably faster than what could be expected from enhanced greenhouse effects alone. This means that self-reinforcing processes, especially due to decreasing reflectivity (albedo) from darkening glacier surfaces, retreating snowlines, and enhanced dust deposition from snow-free surrounding slopes have increasingly come into play (Oerlemans et al 2009, Paul et al 2005). In recent years, glacier inventories based on satellite images and digital terrain information have opened new perspectives for documentation of the distribu- tion of glaciers and ice caps and the ongoing changes affecting them. Computer models combining data from observed time series with satellite information make it possible to look at changes in larger glacier ensembles which extend over entire mountain regions. They show very clearly that even if global warming is limited to 2°C, small- to medium-size glaciers in many mountain ranges will most likely disappear already within the coming decades, with grave consequences for local hazard potential and water cycles. Large glaciers may develop extreme disequi- libria and down waste or collapse rather than retreat, as is indeed being observed more and more frequently.
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Economic Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources

Economic Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources

This study is a part of the Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP), which is funded by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway and Swedish International Development Agency (Sida). This work is partly financed through the research program VENI of the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). We acknowledge the World Climate Research Program’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP5, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. We thank the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, the International Water Management Institute Pakistan, the Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority and the Pakistan Meteorological Department for making available discharge data. Furthermore, we thank J. Sheffield for correcting errors in the Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing data set over the studied region and S. Bajracharya for overall support in the project.
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Climate change scenarios and its impact on water resources of Langtang Khola Basin, Nepal

Climate change scenarios and its impact on water resources of Langtang Khola Basin, Nepal

Abstract General Circulation Models (GCMs) successfully simulate future climate variability and climate change on a global scale; however, poor spatial resolution constrains their application for impact studies at a regional or a local level. The dynamically downscaled precipitation and temperature data were used for the future climate scenarios prediction for the period 2000–2050s, under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and A1B scenarios. In addition, rating equation was developed from measured discharge and gauge (stage) height data. The generated precipitation and temperature data from downscale and rating equation was used to run the HBV-Light 3.0 conceptual rainfall–runoff model for the calibration and validation of the model, gauge height was taken in the reference period (1988–2009). In the HBV-Light 3.0, a GAP optimization approach was used to calibrate the observed streamflow. From the precipitation scenarios with SRES A2 and A1B emissions at Kyanging, an increase of precipitation during summer and spring and a decrease during winter and autumn seasons was shown. The model projected annual precipitation for the 2050s of both the A2 and A1B scenarios are 716.4 mm and 703.6 mm, respectively. Such precipitation projections indicate the future increase of precipitation in all seasons except the summer. By the end of the 2050s simulation projects an increase maximum (minimum) discharge of 37.8 m 3 /s (13.9
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Impact on Water Resources in a Mountainous Basin under the Climate Change Transient Scenario (UKTR)

Impact on Water Resources in a Mountainous Basin under the Climate Change Transient Scenario (UKTR)

The climate change scenarios were finally applied to the hydrometeorological generated series by correcting each of their monthly value using a linear interpolation between the generated values and the corresponding mean monthly historical values. Runs of the water balance model in order to estimate possible future runoffs for all time steps, using the already generated hydrometeorological data and considering zero climate change (no application of climate change scenarios), are referred to as base runs and were used for comparison purposes. The selection of the base runs as a basis of comparison was made for uniformity reasons and it was accepted since each base run was found to be similar to the historical record. Figures 3 and 4 depict the mean monthly runoff values and the mean monthly actual evapotranspiration, estimated by the PE1, PE2 and the Blaney-Crid- dle method. One can notice slight differences among the three cases, justifying thus the use of the Blaney-Crid- dle method for all base runs.
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