Indian Parliamentary Election

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Emergence of Independent Candidates: A Negative Binomial Regression Model of an Indian Parliamentary Election

Emergence of Independent Candidates: A Negative Binomial Regression Model of an Indian Parliamentary Election

The paper attempted to explain the emergence of independent candidates in Indian parliamentary election in the year 2004. We specified a model of an FPTP electoral system in which political parties themselves float dummy independent candidates to gain electoral advantage. We showed that in a fragmented political milieu with relatively weak institutional infrastructure, such unsavory behavior of political parties could lead to a Prisoners’ dilemma type game where each party tries to guess the number of independent candidates that would be pitted against it by others. We proposed that in this game, the perceived probability distribution of the number of independent candidates floated against one political party by another would be “memoryless”. Using this property and a few other simplifying assumptions, we showed that the spatial distribution of independent candidates would follow a Negative Binomial distribution. While many studies in the past modeled count data like independent candidates in this way, in most such studies, specification of Poisson and Negative Binomial models were ad hoc and were based on statistical convenience. In this study, however, attempts were made to show through a simple behavioral model why the distribution of independent candidates could be Negative Binomial.
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Anatomy of Indian Parliamentary Elections

Anatomy of Indian Parliamentary Elections

One possibility for the rise in independent candidates is not that they expect to win but that they want to undermine the vote of a party candidate. In a closely fought election (discussed in the next chapter) the presence of independent candidates can erode support sufficiently to have an appreciable impact of on the outcome. 11 Another reason for the reason for the rise in the number of independent candidates could be pique at being denied a party nomination. Since being a Lok Sabha member is a rewarding job - offering inter alia a good salary, generous pension benefits, government provided housing in the capital, and free travel across India - there is considerable competition to be adopted as a major party’s candidate for a constituency (“getting a ticket”, as it is termed in India). Alas, many are called, but few are chosen. Some of those not chosen seek to exact revenge by
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Independent Candidates in a Parliamentary Election in India: A Poisson Regression Model

Independent Candidates in a Parliamentary Election in India: A Poisson Regression Model

The paper attempts to explain the number of independent candidates in Indian parliamentary election in the year 2004. The statistical models developed are applications and generalizations of Poisson and Negative Binomial distributions. Our results suggest that the distribution of independent candidates can be explained well with a negative binomial probability model or its generalizations. Our results also help to identify three major factors behind the variations in the number of independent candidates. First, a major determinant of the number of independent candidates is political fractionalization. Results suggest that the number of non-independent candidates would typically lead to more independent candidates in the fray. Interestingly, our analysis points out that the major determinant appears to be political fractionalization at the State level rather than at the constituency itself. Second, we find some indirect evidence of presence of free riders. Free riders typically stand in urban constituencies and against the so called VIP candidates. Third, our results suggest that SC and ST constituencies would have typically lower number of independent candidates due to lack of potential candidates as compared to general constituencies.
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Pretty faces, marginal races: predicting election outcomes using trait assessments of British Parliamentary candidates

Pretty faces, marginal races: predicting election outcomes using trait assessments of British Parliamentary candidates

Using the individual choices, we model a subject’s likelihood of selecting the winning candidate as a function of their relative evaluations of the candidates. 29 The results, presented in columns 5-8 of Table 3, support the findings of the majority group judgement analyses. 30 Once again, a positive coefficient indicates that the trait judgement is more likely to predict the real election winner. When we do not take into account electoral marginality (column 5), attractive- ness judgements tend to be a stronger predictor of election winners. However, individual trait models (columns 6 and 7) indicate that the likelihood the trait successfully predicts the election winner is, once again, contingent on the marginality of the constituency. In the attractiveness- only model, the coefficient associated with the main effect of attractiveness judgements is posi- tive and statistically significant, indicating that candidates who were perceived to be attractive were more likely to be winners in marginal seats. However, the interaction between the attrac- tiveness and the margin of victory indicates that perceived attractiveness has no effect as the mar- gin of victory increases. The reverse is true for the competence-only model. The main effect of competence is negative, and the interaction between competence and the margin of victory is pos- itive, indicating that candidates judged as being more competent were less likely to be election winners in marginal constituencies, but more likely to be election winners in safe seats.
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Full article

Full article

Seven conservative and right parties participated as member in the coalition The Reformist Block [Реформаторски блок (Reformatorski blok). The Reformist Block was the main player, other bigger members are the Union of Democratic Forces [Съюз на демократичните сили – СДС (Sauz na demokraticnite sili)], the Bulgarian Agrarian Union [Български земеделски народен съюз (Balarski zemedelski naroden sauz)], Democrats for Strong Bulgaria [Демократи за силна България – ДСБ (Demokrati za silna Bagaria)] etc. They tried to revive the messages from the beginning of the democratic changes in Bulgaria after 1990 and as a result the communicative strategy has been fluid. The candidates prefer virtual pre-election communication as well as direct meetings with the hard electorate. The Reformist Block won 8.8888 % and 23 seats.
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Public feeling in Ukraine ahead of the parliamentary election. OSW Commentary No. 89, 2012-07-12

Public feeling in Ukraine ahead of the parliamentary election. OSW Commentary No. 89, 2012-07-12

On the eve of the election campaign, there is significant potential for protests to break out in Ukraine. Just as in 2004, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians believe that the current situation in the country is bad and that measures taken by the government have been insuf- ficient. More people are also stating that they are ready to take to the streets to fight for their rights, with those who wish to maintain social peace at all costs now becoming a minority. It should be stressed, however, that for a number of reasons the likelihood of large-scale po- litical protests across Ukraine is rather low. First, parliamentary elections are far less likely to spark protests than a presidential ballot. Second, currently only 30% of respondents believe that the upcoming elections will changes things for the better 17 . This stems mainly from the
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Parliamentary Control Functions (Kosovo case)

Parliamentary Control Functions (Kosovo case)

The President of the Republic decreed the dismissal of the incumbent Prime Minister and appoints the new Prime Minister elected no later than 10 day from the date of the vote of confidence in Parliament. According to the Regulation of the Assembly of Macedonia, the motion on vote of no-confidence of the government may represent at least 20 MPs. Under the French Constitution, the motion must be filed by at least one tenth of the deputies (58 deputies) and should be adopted only by an absolute majority, i.e. the majority of the number of Members of the Assembly, i.e. 289 votes out of 577 deputies. The observing parliamentary practices recently, it can be said that the initiative could parliamentary motion of no-confidence vote has lost its former weight or importance; now more and more we have to do with the parliamentary homogeneous majority and disciplined, as a consequence of electoral systems that provide consistency of government, but also other nowadays policy instruments.
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Statistical Detection of Vote Count Fraud: 2009 Albanian Parliamentary Election and Benford’s Law

Statistical Detection of Vote Count Fraud: 2009 Albanian Parliamentary Election and Benford’s Law

Free and fair elections are the cornerstone of every democratic society (Diamond LJ, Plattne MF, 2006). Throughout the world, in old and new democracies alike, allegations of vote fraud frequently occur (Lehoucq 2003) (Mebane Jr Walter R., July 17, 2006, pg 1). Accusations of fraud and electoral skullduggery seem an ever-present component of democratic process. Although things may have not changed much historically the winners rejoice, whereas the losers claim foul (Joseph Deckert, Mikhail Myagkov, and Peter C. Ordeshook, 2011, pg. 245). Almost each one of the election results held in Albania (local or parliamentary) have been contested and made doubtfulness of the respective legitimacy. The same has happened in the 2009 parliamentary election: the Union for Change Coalition with its main party, the Socialist Party, claimed fraud of votes. Third part international observers have assessed the vote count negatively in 22 of the 66 Ballot Counting Centers (OSCE/ODIHR, 2009, pg. 24). Moreover, many smaller parties claimed that their votes had been shifted towards the two main parties Democratic or Socialist Party (OSCE/ODIHR, 2009, pg. 26).
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Strategic Entry and the Relationship between Number of Independent and Non Independent Candidates: A Study of Parliamentary Elections in India

Strategic Entry and the Relationship between Number of Independent and Non Independent Candidates: A Study of Parliamentary Elections in India

perceive that they have equal chance of winning the election, e.g., each party assumes that in a direct contest, each of the voters will vote for both the candidates with probability (1/2). Both parties now realize that if they float one or more independent candidates cloning its rival, each voter will then vote for each such independent candidate with a small probability at the cost of its rival. Both parties, therefore, have incentive to compete with each other to float more independent candidates than the rival, subject to the resources available to them. This entire process of floating clone independent candidates may be thought of as a Prisoners‘ D ilemma type game. The game is simultaneous because although in principle, each party can observe what the other one is doing for some time, crucial adjustments are likely to take place only at the last moment of filing nomination. Extending the logic of Prisoners‘ Dilemma, we can immediately see th at any tacit understanding between the political parties is likely to be unstable. The incentive to ―cheat‖ is strong, especially in political games of this type which is repeated infrequently and where the stake is high. Further, even if a tacit pact is there, if a free rider decides to take advantage of his/her similarity with one of the candidates, the fragile pact may break down due to misunderstanding. Interestingly, with three or more political parties having equal strength, the situation becomes more complex. To win, each political party will now have to field independent candidates against all its rivals. Like in the classical Prisoners‘ Dilemma with multiple players, detection of the cheater becomes more difficult because even if ―clones‖ are identified, one may not know which political party has floated the clone.
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Vers l'élection directe de l'Assemblée parlementaire européenne = Towards the direct election of the European Parliamentary Assembly

Vers l'élection directe de l'Assemblée parlementaire européenne = Towards the direct election of the European Parliamentary Assembly

parlementaire européenne, en approuvant le 17 mai 1960 un projet de convention pour son élection au suffrage universel direct, a exécuté le mandat que les traités instituant les trois Co[r]

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Did Egypt's Parliamentary Election just trump citizens’ rights? Arab Citizenship Review No  12, 19 November 2015

Did Egypt's Parliamentary Election just trump citizens’ rights? Arab Citizenship Review No. 12, 19 November 2015

Since the Muslim Brotherhood rule was toppled in July 2013, the regime of President Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi has strived to consolidate his one-man rule; he painted the political opposition and civil society as traitors and foreign agents and exploited the fight against terrorism to suppress freedom of expression, justify a crackdown on the press, eclipse justice in courtrooms, throw thousands in prison, and tighten his grip on police forces. The regime has postponed parliamentary elections for some time, while it marginalised and weakened the non-Islamist political parties that helped Sisi take power. He did so by promoting electoral lists with candidates who are loyal to the president, to ensure control over the new assembly and by obstructing any political alliance that could form an opposition. At the same time, the security apparatus has been given free rein to control the public sphere and engineer the electoral process. This may ultimately lead to a parliament that includes no advocates for rights and liberties, which is particularly significant since the incoming assembly will review the huge amount of legislation that President Sisi has issued in the absence of a parliament. In addition, shortly before elections, President Sisi raised questions about the constitution, calling for it to be amended to reduce the powers of the parliament and increase those of the president. It is thus clear that Sisi seeks not only to consolidate his regime, without political opposition, but to free his rule of any effective oversight from society or parliament.
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A move to majoritarian nationalism?: challenges of representation in South Asia

A move to majoritarian nationalism?: challenges of representation in South Asia

Although it is too soon to say whether the reduced Muslim representation in parliament will result in policies detrimental to the Muslim community, in its first 100 days the BJP has rolled back from several policies of the UPA, notably in relation to the position of Muslims within India (Economic Times 2014). Prominent Indian academic Zoya Hasan articulates the concerns of many when she argues that there is a ‘template of ‘majoritarianism’ running through Modi’s government (2014). Modi ‘has been careful not to speak the language of division and Hindutva’ (Subrahmaniam 2014) but several appointments he has made have challenged his inclusiveness (such as the personnel changes at the Indian Council for Social Science Research). He has also failed to prevent ‘communal polarisation as an instrument of political mobilisation’ (Hasan 2014) e.g. the provocative use by the RSS and BJP politicians seeking election of the phrase ‘love jihad’ to describe the ‘misbehaviour’ of (Muslim) men with (Hindu) women. Hasan concludes that the ‘hiatus between the rhetoric of Modi and the reality on the ground is palpable. The plethora of communal statements indicates a concerted attempt to impose a majoritarian concept of nationhood’ (2014). There are ominous signs for non-Hindi speaking and non-Hindu minorities. In October 2014, the state broadcaster, Doordashan, televised an hour-long address by the leader of the RSS (Rediff.com   2014b),   a   move   that   was   seen   to   be   inflammatory,   and,   in   the   words   of   historian   Ramachandra   Guha,   ‘   naked   state   majoritarianism’  (2014).  
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Parliamentary election outcomes in the Netherlands during 1981 2010: Have they become more determined by regional than national (economic) performance?

Parliamentary election outcomes in the Netherlands during 1981 2010: Have they become more determined by regional than national (economic) performance?

Peculiarly, the election outcomes in some small open economies with high living standards, such as Denmark, Austria and the Netherlands, have shown lately a significant shift from more left-wing and traditional political parties to right-wing parties. While these countries highly depend on international developments due to their open character and gained a large share of their welfare state in economic and political terms to this high degree of openness, there seem to be forces inside the country 2 that push for (more) protection of national habits and traditional values. Anecdotal evidence exists that this push goes deep down at the regional level, towards the municipalities.
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The British Labour Party and leadership election mandate(s) of Jeremy Corbyn: patterns of opinion and opposition within the parliamentary Labour Party

The British Labour Party and leadership election mandate(s) of Jeremy Corbyn: patterns of opinion and opposition within the parliamentary Labour Party

This paper makes an original and distinctive contribution to the academic literature on the Labour Party and the selection(s) of Corbyn to the leadership of the Labour Party. Accounts do exist on how Corbyn was initially elected to the party leadership (Dorey and Denham, 2016, and Quinn, 2016). Both imply that Corbyn’s success challenged the Stark criteria on party leadership elections – i.e. select the candidate who is the most ideological acceptable, most electable and most competent (Stark, 1996). Rather, Corbyn’s election seemed to be more consistent with May’s ‘law of curvilinear disparity’ which assumes that party activists would be more ideologically extreme (i.e. radical) than the more ideological moderate (i.e. pragmatic) parliamentarians, who prioritise electability over ideological purity (see May, 1973). That was a significant development, as May’s theory that has been questioned within the academic literature on the election of the leader of the Labour party in the era of the Electoral College (Quinn, 2010).
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SIMULTANEOUS ELECTIONS AND INDIAN DEMOCRACY: A HANGING FRUIT REQUIRING SAFER HANDS TO PLUCK IT

SIMULTANEOUS ELECTIONS AND INDIAN DEMOCRACY: A HANGING FRUIT REQUIRING SAFER HANDS TO PLUCK IT

Elections are the eye opener and revealing aspect of contemporary democracies .They highlight and bring into sight the actual nature and functioning of the system as a whole .Elections are held for continuity of good governance in world democracies .In India the elections are the most important and integral of political process .Democracy functions upon the principle of free and fair elections ,not manipulated and rigged i .A sound electoral system in general and free and fair elections in particular are lifeline of modern democracies .The Indian democratic system is not properly working and the common man feels that the main problem among other problems lies within the electoral process .The task of conducting elections in India which one believes is like the eighth wonder of world has been assigned to Election Commission of India (art 324).To facilitate the conduct of elections by the Election Commission, the parliament has enacted the Representation of Peoples Act 1951 and the rules framed there under viz Registration of Electoral Rules 1960 and conduct of Election Rules 1961 ii .Election commission is one of the four main pillars of Indian democracy .It is
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The impact of voting advice applications on party choice in Dutch national and provincial elections

The impact of voting advice applications on party choice in Dutch national and provincial elections

This represents a change in pre-electoral vote intentions. If voters change their mind over the course of an election campaign, this is referred to as in-campaign vote switching. This conceptualisation accounts for the fact that changes in party preferences may take place at different intervals. Preference change has been defined more narrowly by Ruusuvirta and Rosema (2009), as regards time (between VAA launch and elections) and focus (decided voters). In their paper, preference change refers to people with a vote preference (before filling in the VAA), but who change their preference in response to the VAA results (Ruusuvirta & Rosema, 2009, pp. 6, 8). 1 Preference change has been empirically investigated in relation to VAA use (Andreadis & Wall, 2014; Ladner et al., 2012; Pianzola, 2014b; Walgrave et al., 2008), but mainly with respect to inter-election vote switching. The use of VAAs, however, could bring about different effects other than preference change. These effects have received little scholarly attention to date. According to Ruusuvirta and Rosema (2009), VAAs could also help undecided citizens to make a party choice. For the purposes of this research, undecided citizens are those who do not (yet) know which party to vote for. VAAs could be thought of as facilitators of a vote decision-making process in this regard. This is referred to as preference formation. By contrast, in the case of decided voters who have already made up their mind, consulting a VAA could strengthen them in their existing vote preferences. This effect is known as preference confirmation (Ruusuvirta & Rosema, 2009). These three VAA effects are not mutually exclusive, depending on the time frame adopted. An example serves to illustrate this point. A voter may hold a party preference at the start of the election campaign (𝑡 0 ), which is subsequently confirmed by a VAA. If this voter indeed votes as intended (𝑡 1 ), the VAA effect is described in terms of preference confirmation. However, this voter may also have voted differently than at previous elections (𝑡 −1 ), which reflects preference change. In the former case, the election campaign is the
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All change in the House? The profile of candidates and MPs in the 2015 British general election

All change in the House? The profile of candidates and MPs in the 2015 British general election

The SNP did not use quotas in 2015, although they have recently voted to al- low their use in future elections. Their landslide victory resulted in just three seats in Scotland not in SNP hands, creating an unprecedented situation where some SNP MPs had not even been party members prior to the referendum campaign in 2014. As such the election provided a unique opportunity for women candidates

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Online parliamentary election campaigns in Scotland: a decade of research

Online parliamentary election campaigns in Scotland: a decade of research

websites, or, more significantly, the impact that exposure to these sites has on voting decisions. Certainly, there have been a number of large-scale, quantitative surveys of the public, generally in western, liberal democracies (e.g., Lusoli, 2005; Smith, 2011), that have explored their use of the Internet to obtain and exchange electoral information during campaigns. There has also been a raft of studies, predominantly conducted in the US and often based on existing survey data, which have used multiple regression techniques to explore relationships between Internet use during elections and citizens’ levels of political efficacy, knowledge, trust or engagement (e.g., Drew & Weaver, 2006; Kenski & Stroud, 2006). A number of more experimental, laboratory-based investigations have also taken place, again largely in the US and often involving convenience samples of university students, where participants have been exposed to candidates’ websites and their attitudes towards the candidates’ characters and political issues have then been measured using Likert-type scales (e.g., Hansen & Benoit, 2005; Towner & Dulio, 2011). The lack of qualitative user studies has been bemoaned by Gibson and Römmele (2005), who argue that obtaining “a better in- depth understanding of individuals’ online election experiences” would assist in better shaping the questions asked in quantitative opinion surveys, thus allowing more precise causal inferences to be drawn about voters’ exposure to campaign sites. With this in mind, and to complement their other work, the current authors conducted a qualitative study of voters’ online information behaviour during the 2011 Scottish Parliamentary election campaign. This study used the authors’ interactive, electronically-assisted interview method ― previously developed during a study of the British public’s use of parliamentary websites (Marcella, Baxter & Moore, 2003) ― where 64 citizens of Aberdeen, in North East Scotland, were observed and questioned as they searched for, browsed and used information on the websites and social media sites of competing parties and candidates. 2. Results
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ACCULTURATION AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION OF MIGRANTS IN ANDAMAN AND NICOBAR ISLANDS

ACCULTURATION AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION OF MIGRANTS IN ANDAMAN AND NICOBAR ISLANDS

Andaman and Nicobar Islands hails people from different regions, ethnic groups, castes and creeds of Indian Sub continent and very few from Myanmar (Burma), Sri Lanka etc. Since people from different background settled at a common place and they want a platform to raise their voice for different issues. Human beings are cooperative, but not altruistic; competitive, but not exclusively so. Human beings have an innate inclination to cooperate, particularly within defined group boundaries, but are also highly sensitive to selfish actions on the part of other group members (Alford & Hibbing, 2004). Our preferences and behaviours are at least partially shaped by evolutionary forces and therefore by genetic heritage. Just as evolutionary pressures shaped genes governing the physical traits of humans, they also shaped genes governing behavioural traits. Evolution is a slow process, and much of the environmental pressure favouring human cooperation has existed for a long time. Our genetic composition is to some extent the product of conditions faced by our hunter-gatherer predecessors of perhaps a million years ago. One of the keys to an individual’s survival was being a respected part of a viable group. The central insight of a behavioural theory built on evolutionary biology is that the desire for group life is a fundamental human preference (Alford & Hibbing, 2004).
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Pragmatic Analysis of Persuasion in Modern British and Iraqi Parliamentary Election Slogans

Pragmatic Analysis of Persuasion in Modern British and Iraqi Parliamentary Election Slogans

Thus, this paper aims to investigate the speech act of persuasion in forty Modern British and Iraqi Parliamentary Election Campaign Slogans. Based on Searle’s (1969, 1975, and 1976),the felicity conditions of persuasion have been derived and applied to the chosen data. The study concludes that persuasion act can be indirectly attained through various syntactic structures, especially declarative, active and simple sentences. Furthermore, non-linguistic elements contribute to the persuasive mission of election slogans. Both English and Arabic languages employ almost the same fabric of slogans to deliver influential messages. Keywords— Persuasion, Slogan, Felicity Conditions, Syntactic Realizations.
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