The 8 October 2005, M w 7.6 Kashmir, Pakistan, earthquake, was generated primarily by thrust motion on a NE-dipping fault, accompanied by minor right-lateral offset. The earth- quake originated ∼ 100 km to the northeast of Islamabad, at about 26 km of depth and propagated upward causing thou- sands of casualties and producing significant surface effects, such as ruptures, landslides and damages (i.e. The US Na- tional Academies Reconstruction Assistance Team, 2006). Among the historically known large seismic events, the lat- ter has produced extensive surface rupture for the first time in this zone. A ∼ 75 km long, NW-SE trending fault formed at the ground surface from the town of Balakot to northwest of Bagh (Fig. 1), as interpreted from remote-sensing data (Avouac et al., 2006; Fujiwara et al., 2006; Pathier et al., 2006) and confirmed by on-site field survey (Kaneda et al., 2008; Tapponnier et al., 2006; Yeats and Hussain, 2006). The earthquake rupture, known as Balakot-Bagh, was complex, generally not continuous and for most of its length followed the trace of pre-existing late Quaternary active faults (e.g. Nakata et al., 1991; Nakata and Kumahara, 2006).
Rapid urbanization has also been one of the most important factors in Pakistan’s demographic growth (Roger 1990). World Bank (2005) estimates show that 34% of the total population lives in urban areas with an average annual growth around 3.3% (1990"2003) that has allowed Pakistan to expand its urban population by seven folds during the 1950"2008 period. The large movement towards cities and megacities is driven by the search for employment, better living standards, quality medical and educational facilities and improved transportation (Shirazi 2006). The increasing population and rapid urbanization can be closely related to the damage caused by the Pakistanearthquake. Pressure on the land pushes newcomers to move out of the city and settle in unsafe lands which in this case are the mountainous areas. Furthermore, Pakistan shares its borders with Afghanistan through NWFP and most of the refugees settle in the mountains to avoid being identified by the government and also to live in close proximity to their original home town in Afghanistan. This rate of informal and unplanned growth across the densely populated mountain areas puts a large number of people at risk (Wisner et al. 2004, p.70). Informal and irregular settlements result in poor quality vital infrastructures related to utilities, water, sanitation and drainage systems making the conditions unsafe and vulnerable as the example of the Pakistanearthquake shows.
31. While the use of ERRA construction standards increased, a decline in unsafe house construction—generally based on the use of mud or heavy sections of timber, or a combination of the two—was also noted. Mud construction has seen the most dramatic decrease—from 35% before the earthquake to only 8% afterwards. This change is attributed to the enhanced awareness and skills development in the communities, and the acceptance by local authorities of earthquake-resistant construction and design. As referred in para. 64 of the PCR, the obstacle to adoption of seismically compliant construction techniques has not been lack of know-how or its rationale, but affordability factors. And that new funding is needed to be allocated to public information campaigns to increase compliance levels. While sustainability measures are generally in place, there were lower-than-target outcomes delivered (paras. 22– 23) and increased compliance rates were to be dependent on fresh allocations of funds. Considering all these assessments together, this validation rates the project likely sustainable. 7
found five cases where the terminator times were shifted a few days before the earthquake. According to them, the rea- sons for the absence of the terminator time shifts in the other five cases could be due to the long distance of the epicenter of the earthquakes from the propagation paths and also the larger depths of the earthquakes. This method was also ex- amined by Clilverd et al. (1999) who used the data of 6 yr during 1990–1995. However, for a very few cases they found that the terminators of the VLF signals shifted before the earthquake, and in most of the cases they found no strong association between terminator time shifts and earthquakes. In a response to this conclusion, Soloviev et al. (2004) per- formed the full-wave computation and showed that a per- turbation in the lower ionosphere during day/night trans- missions would exhibit a significant change in the termina- tor time. Just after the 2004 devastating earthquake of In- donesia, the seismo-ionospheric correlation was examined by Chakrabarti et al. (2005), who came to the conclusion that a definite shift towards the night is present a few days be- fore the earthquake. Subsequently, using the VLF signal from the Indian Navy station VTX (latitude 8.43 ◦ N, longitude 77.73 ◦ E) to Indian Centre for Space Physics (ICSP), Kolkata (latitude 8.43 ◦ N, longitude 77.73 ◦ E), Sasmal et al. (2009) showed that the “VLF day length” (defined as the time dif- ference between the two terminator times) becomes anoma- lously high typically two days before the earthquakes. Subse- quently, Ray et al. (2010) reported that the “VLF day length” obtained from the VLF signals for VTX–Malda propagation path become anomalously high one day before the earth- quake. These two works also support the “terminator time method” for earthquake prediction.
One of the key inputs consisted of the use of results from two previous assessment made by the Service Regional de Traitement d’Image et de T´el´ed´etection (SERTIT) and the National Engineering Services of Pakistan (NESPAK) which identified post-disaster landslides using satellite imagery. Both institutes kindly provided the two sets of detected land- slides. To study which parameters are potentially linked with landslide susceptibility, a series of potential susceptibility factors were extracted using GIS techniques (slope variation and steepness, vegetation density, and distance from epicen- tres/active fault, rivers, roads or trails). Satellite imagery and simple remote sensing computation were also used to eval- uate vegetation density. The Normalised Difference Vegeta- tion Index (NDVI) is commonly used as a proxy for vegeta- tion density (Tucker, 1979). It was computed and statistical regressions were run to identify potential susceptibility fac- tors associated with observed slope failures. Once identified, the identified factors were introduced into the GIS to provide a landslide susceptibility map.
Landslide is the movement of mass of earth or rock from mountain. Landslide may also classified as falls, topples, flows, creep and lateral spread. It may cause significant loss of life and livelihoods each year. It occurs in coastal, offshore and onshore environment. Landslip also encompassing failure of slope material. North part of realm with Azad Kashmir and China has to face huge catastrophic movement. Slop displacement, rock fall effect vegetation. Rock fall occur along Murree and Muzaffarabad and may become dangerous if the steep slope slop angle is more than 70 degree. Most of landslides occur along fault lines in Pakistan. Earthquake Magnitude and possibility of trigging landslides are the major causes of creating fault lines. Landslides effect with heavy rain fall. Deforestation, heavy rain fall and Steep slope between 30 to 45 degree may cause land sliding.
Abstract. During the 12 May 2008, Wenchuan earth- quake in China, more than 15 000 landslides were trig- gered by the earthquake. Among these landslides, there were 112 large landslides generated with a plane area greater than 50 000 m 2 . These large landslides were markedly distributed closely along the surface rupture zone in a narrow belt and were mainly located on the hanging wall side. More than 85 % of the large landslides are presented within the range of 10 km from the rupture. Statistical analysis shows that more than 50 % of large landslides occurred in the hard rock and second-hard rock, like migmatized metamorphic rock and carbonate rock, which crop out in the south part of the dam- aged area with higher elevation and steeper landform in com- parison with the northeast part of the damaged area. All large landslides occurred in the region with seismic intensity ≥ X except a few of landslides in the Qingchuan region with seis- mic intensity IX. Spatially, the large landslides can be cen- tred into four segments, namely the Yingxiu, the Gaochuan, the Beichuan and the Qingchuan segments, from southwest to northeast along the surface rupture. This is in good ac- cordance with coseismic displacements. With the change of fault type from reverse-dominated slip to dextral slip from southwest to northeast, the largest distance between the trig- gered large landslides and the rupture decreases from 15 km to 5 km. The critical acceleration a c for four typical large
In Japan, two government organizations, the Japan Metrological Agency ( JMA) and Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) in the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, have responsibility for operational earthquake forecasting. JMA has the operational responsibility for predicting the hypothetical Tokai earthquake, aftershock forecasting, earthquake early warning, and tsunami warning . HERP is responsible for providing the public with appropriate information on earthquake risk, implemented through the following tasks : (1) planning of comprehensive and basic policies; (2) coordination of budgets and other administrative work with relevant government organizations; (3) establishment of comprehensive surveys and observational plans; (4) collection, analysis, and the comprehensive evaluation of survey results collected by universities and related institutions; and (5) public announcements based on comprehensive evaluations. Under the third task, HERP has the operational responsibility for (a) monthly reports on evaluation of seismic activity in Japan, (b) long-term evaluation of inland and off-shore earthquakes, and (c) national seismic hazard maps for Japan. Historically, Japan has suffered many natural disasters, especially earthquakes. The government has promoted research on earthquake forecasting and prediction since it was established in its modern form in 1868. A national program for earthquake prediction, started in 1965, aimed for the detection and elucidation of precursory phenomena of earthquakes. In a report presented at the 1976 meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, a megathrust earthquake (M ~ 8) was predicted for the Suruga Trough along the Japan’s southern coast; this so-called "Tokai seismic gap" was known to have ruptured in the great earthquakes of 1707 and 1854 and was thought to be ripe for failure at any time . Because the region potentially affected by the anticipated
With respect to the population loss, it is assumed that the total death toll from the earthquake is 100,000. This is higher than the official figure of about 73,000 dead reported so far, but it seems likely that the official figures understate the death toll given the extent of the devastation that has been reported and thus, it is quite probable that this figure will continue to be revised upwards in the coming weeks. 6 Even the figure of 100,000 dead seems to us to be a conservative estimate, in fact. Of the deaths, 50 percent (or 50,000) are presumed to have taken place in NWFP districts. Our model requires an assessment of the allocation of this figure between different groups, namely children under the age of 10, females over the age of 10, and males over the age of 10 and our assumed numbers for these are 15,000, 17,000, and 18,000 deaths, respectively, which is in proportion to the existing population in each of these groups. The loss of some of the population leads in the model to some loss to the potential labour pool. Taking into account the labour participation rates of females and males, this translates into a permanent loss of about 15,000 people from the labour force.
Secondly, we must understand the soil prop- erties and its thickness, because in seismic his- tory it was a similar damage on the same area due to earthquakes however the earthquake epicenters were different. There is scattered soil in Yogyakarta depression. To know the dimension of soil we need a tool to map the soil. We already know that earthquake surface wave will be amplified if its pass through loose soil. For this purpose we utilize the method of micro-tremors that offered by BPPTK, Yo- gyakarta. To check the thickness of subsurface data of micro-tremor and to add soil data we also made some drilling until 60 m each. We have done in collaboration with Civil and Envi- ronmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Gadjah Mada. We are also mea- suring seismic velocity on bore hole in collabo- ration with ESDM and ITB. Beside these meth- ods, we need also magneto telluric method to recognize the present of fault in collaboration with Physical Department, UGM. We also have helped by Kyushu University in installing mi- cro seismic net work. Fortunately our research was financed by AUN/Seed Net - JICA. The re- search was followed by either undergraduate and graduate students. Two of AUN/Seed-Net doctoral students are still working in the earth- quake topics that are Mr. Myo Tanth and Mr. Tun Naing from Myanmar.
time-dependent increase in frictional resistance on the fault under the compressive stress. The re-strengthening may also be reinforced by a gradual increase in the effective normal stress with tectonic loading during the inter-seismic period. Thus, the fault re-strengthening can easily be attained with- out having to assume the effect of slip rate, so that we again cannot ﬁnd any compelling reason to emphasize the slip rate effect in the constitutive formulation for earthquake ruptures. As understood from the basic fact that three fundamen- tal modes (mode I, II, and III) of fracture are deﬁned in terms of the crack-tip displacement in fracture mechanics, the displacement plays a fundamental and primary role in the fracturing process. One has to recognize that the slip- dependency is a more fundamental property of the shear rup- ture than the rate-dependency, and this basic fact must be taken into account when the constitutive law for earthquake ruptures is formulated. Thus, the governing law for earth- quake ruptures should be formulated in such a manner that the shear traction τ is a primary function of the slip displace- ment D, with its functional form that may be affected by a parameter of slip rate D ˙ or stationary contact time. This formulation assumes that the slip displacement is an inde- pendent and fundamental variable, and that the transient re- sponse of the shear traction to the slip displacement is essen- tially important.
Simulation results for seismic crystal types with vari- ous scatterer geometries and lattice configurations are given in Figure 6. A decreasing in magnitude of vibra- tion is apparent behind the seismic crystals when com- pared with the vibration magnitude in the unshielded region. Elliptic scatterers  are seen to exhibit better performance of isolating seismic waves. A serious disad- vantage of the circular scatterers for the application of earthquake shielding is that the crystals with circular scat- ters can exhibit wave focusing effect within a certain fre- quency band [23,24].
An intense ground shaking struck Central Nepal on 25 April 2015 (local time 11:56 a.m.). The moment magnitude of the earthquake was M w 7.8 with its hypocenter located in the Gorkha region (about 80 km north–west of Kathmandu). The earthquake occurred at the subduction interface along the Himalayan arc between the Indian plate and the Eurasian plate (Avouac, 2003; Ader et al., 2012). The earthquake rupture propagated from west to east and from deep to shallow parts of the shallowly dipping fault plane [United States Geological Survey (USGS), (2015)], and consequently, strong shaking was experienced in Kathmandu and the surrounding municipalities. This was the largest event since 1934, M w 8.1 Bihar–Nepal earthquake (Ambraseys and Douglas, 2004; Bilham, 2004). The 2015 mainshock destroyed a large number of buildings and infrastructure in urban and rural areas, and triggered numerous landslides and rock/boulder falls in the mountain areas, blocking roads, and hampering rescue and recovery activities. Moreover, aftershock occurrence has been active since the mainshock; several major aftershocks (e.g., M w 6.7 and M w 7.3 earthquakes in the Kodari region, north–east of Kathmandu) caused additional
Earthquake Prediction studies is not getting much attention and hence is not an active research field in Pakis- tan as in other countries prone to earthquake, this is because most of the seismologists in Pakistan take earth- quake prediction as fool’s paradise and focus only on the earthquake hazard studies and therefore in the past, few hazard maps based on probabilistic approach which is defined as the likelihood for a specified Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) value to be exceeded within a certain time interval are available for the region but unfortu- nately the drawback of this approach is that catalogue completeness is very essential parameter in this technique and we may be underestimating the seismicity in those seismogenic zones where the strongest occurring event is not reported in the catalogue, in addition to this, other aspects largely overlooked in this approach are that the effects of crustal properties on attenuation are neglected and the ground motion parameters are derived from overly simplified attenuation functions, and a partisan solution to this problem is field studies aimed at the rec- ognition of the seismogenic potential of major active faults. As shown in this paper, it is required that reasons for main destruction due to these earthquakes may be addressed properly like implementation of building code especially in areas lying on the active faults as many thickly populated major cities of Pakistan like Islamabad, Quetta, Muzaffarabad etc. lie on active faults that are source of many destructive earthquakes in the past. It is also immediate need that individual as well as Government supported Earthquake safety and preparedness train- ing programs should be organized in order to save lives and properties.
The cross bracings resist the movement of columns due to EQ, and it resists damage of structure in Vertical Direction. Shear Walls and Shear cores are used to resist structure during Earthquake in Horizontal Direction. This is most efficient technique and it is advancement in Base Isolation Devices. Even Earthquake happens in this case, the Base Isolation Devices help in resisting the Earthquake, Cross Bracings are provided for each and every floor and on both
Along the southeastern coast, we surveyed two separate profiles to constrain recent land-level changes (Fig. 12). Near the northern profile, modern erosion of the coastline exposes the stratigraphy beneath both T1 and T2. In each case, sediment mantling the wave-cut platform is less than 30 cm. Therefore, the topographic profile here approximates the shape and elevation of these wave-cut platforms. Here, the topographic profile shows the shoreline angle of T1 is ~1.1 m above the current MHWS (Fig. 13a). Oyster and barnacle encrustations are abundant on in situ sandstone blocks near the elevation of the shoreline angle of T2 (~8.5 m above MSL). These encrustations and T2’s shoreline angle emerged during an event prior to the uplift of T1. Radiocarbon analyses of these fossils suggest an age for T2 that ranges from the mid-15th to the late-17th century (Table 1, KK-145 to KK-148). Since the emergence of the T2 surface must be earlier than the formation of T1, the emergence of T1 occurred after the 15th century. Thus, we believe T1 at this location rose out of the water during the 1762 earthquake and is contemporaneous with the youngest terraces on the southwestern coast of the island.
(community) approaches to software development have blossomed. Recent disasters have emphasized the requirement for essentially real-time response. This was presumably always a requirement but only recently has the internet interfaced cloud resources made it clearly possible. Another important feature of Earthquake response is that the science use of portal should leverage and help related disaster response resources which continue to expand in number and functionality. This suggests that commercial and open source help motivated by societal reasons should be readily available. Looking at portal support for crises, there are many features that are common both to different modalities of disasters and indeed to military
It is now known that the M ~ 7.9 San Francisco earthquake and fire of April 18, 1906 killed more than 3000 persons. Estimates are that if such an event were to happen again today, damages could easily total well in excess of $500 Billion, with potential fatalities of many thousands of lives.
Dynamic response of a soil mass depends on loading conditions. For example, the response for small strain loading is different from that for large strain loading. While for small strain loading, we may treat soil as a visco-elastic material with quite good accuracy, the assumption of visco-elastic material may not be valid for large strain loading. Earthquake loading may be either small strain or large strain loading. Similarly, the behaviour under monotonic loading and cyclic loading may be different. In cyclic loading, the soil strength may degrade. The response may be different depending on the frequency of the loading, particularly for saturated soils. Under seismic loading, for saturated soils, the behaviour is undrained. Also speed of loading has its effect. Also, when sliding occurs (strain is no longer applicable), the strength may depend on the amount of displacement.