ABSTRACT. Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect on existing practices and their appropriate application for different objectives and contexts at the local scale, as well as on their potential perceived outcomes. We contribute to theoretical and empirical frameworks by analyzing how and why researchers assess social-ecological systems using place-based PSP, hence facilitating the appropriate uptake of such scenario tools in the future. We analyzed 23 PSP case studies conducted by the authors in a wide range of social-ecological settings by exploring seven aspects: (1) the context; (2) the original motivations and objectives; (3) the methodological approach; (4) the process; (5) the content of the scenarios; (6) the outputs of the research; and (7) the monitoring and evaluation of the PSP process. This was complemented by a reflection on strengths and weaknesses of using PSP for the place-based social-ecological research. We conclude that the application of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires greater systematic monitoring and evaluation to assess its impact on the promotion of collective action for transitions to sustainability and the adaptation to global environmental change and its challenges. Key Words: futures research; methodological insights; participation; place-based research; scenarios; social-ecological systems
66 Read more
In each area, existing plans were identified as ‘anchoring points’ through which new innovations could be trialled. These actions may facilitate reframing of issues characteristic of double-learning by breaking the cycle of incremental decision making, providing institutional arrangements are supportive. However, full triple-loop learning requires reform of formal and informal institutions and networks to transform decision-making protocols and accommodate proactive adaptation (Preston and Stafford-Smith, 2009). As yet each case study shows no fundamental transformative shift in approaches that would be consistent with full triple-loop learning, though the Mexico case study was associated with one radical change in outlook (‘paying for cargos’: discussed below). The change in social norms represented by the triple-loop would appear to require more emphasis on explicating, appraising and challenging these norms (Armitage et al., 2008). In scenario planning this could be accommodated by integrating both exploratory and normative scenario procedures, thereby identifying the degree of overlap between desirable and plausible futures, to challenge visions for the future and explore how they could be made more resilient to external changes (Milestad et al., 2014). This would inevitably require a longer engagement process to link reappraisal of norms to community and institutional re-organisation, and would undoubtedly be best enabled by encouraging communities themselves to take greater ownership of the scenario planning process (Vervoort et al., 2014).
16 Read more
Used SRES scenario B2 for most of the discussed impacts (this projection falls slightly below the middle range of future emissions. B2 is the basis for all climate maps in the report. Occasionally A2 (which falls slightly above middle of SRES range) was used but it is outlined when this is done. Five climate models were used CGCM2, CSM_1.4, ECHAM4/OPYC3, GFDL-R30_c & HadCM3.
16 Read more
action plans have been implemented. Much of the information for this review is collected from seasonal pre-and post-harvest assessment reports of district early warning and food security task forces and selected community members who serve as PSP champions monitoring progress in the dissemination and utilization of PSP advisories and implementation of adaptation action plans. CARE also support the process through applying its Climate Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity (CVCA) methodology. The CVCA is a methodology developed by CARE for gathering, organizing and analyzing information on vulnerability and adaptive capacity of communities and of individuals and households within communities. It provides guidance and tools for participatory research and learning and provides a framework of guiding questions for analyzing this information. It also considers the role of local and national institutions and policies in facilitating adaptation. In analyzing climate risks and vulnerabilities, the CVCA methodology address livelihood, governance, ecosystem, and market issues.
19 Read more
(1) Participatory scenario planning for a protected area in Doñana Social-Ecological System in Southwestern Spain The Doñana social-ecological system (Doñana SES) con- sists of four ecodistricts (marsh, aeolian sheets, estuary, and coast) (Montes et al., 1998). The Doñana marsh, cov- ering 1,660 km 2 , is one of Europe's biggest coastal wet- lands and maintains a high biodiversity that delivers multiple ecosystem services, including biodiversity conser- vation, nature tourism, and water regulation (Zorrilla- Miras et al. 2014). The social system includes several institutions, some of which have shaped the past and present of Doñana, such as the Doñana Protected Area. Nonetheless, in the previous decades, much of the marshes were transformed into agricultural lands. As a result, the protected area is surrounded by a matrix dedicated to agri- culture which mainly delivers food (Palomo et al. 2014). The most important crops being produced are rice and red fruits, many of which are exported to other countries, while non-irrigated farming has declined in the last decades.
12 Read more
The paper contributes to the literature by exemplifying and reviewing a model-assisted participatory scenario planning pro- cess, which assisted industry strategic planning and decision making in the face of complexity and uncertainty. While modelling results have been published previously (Puig et al., 2011), this paper focuses on the conceptual foundation and model architecture before illustrating the model capabilities and applications as a planning tool and critically reviewing its merit. In doing so, the paper responds to the standards of reporting recommended by Jakeman et al. (2006), including (1) clear statement of the objec- tives and clients of the modelling exercise; (2) documentation of the nature (identity, provenance, quantity and quality) of the data used to drive, identify and test the model; (3) strong rationale for the choice of model families and features, (4) justi ﬁ cation of the methods and criteria employed in calibration; (5) thorough analysis and testing of model performance as resources allow and the application demands; and (6) a resultant statement of model utility, assumptions, accuracy, limitations, and the need and potential for improvement.
12 Read more
Abstract: This paper presents an agile participatory urban soundscape planning process model, which is proposed as a prerequisite on which to build and reference the efficacy of urban soundscape planning. The model was developed through data synthesis and analysis and mapping engagement with diverse stakeholders across four applied soundscape projects in Brighton and Hove, UK. To the best of the author’s knowledge, the model is the first of its kind in applied soundscape practice. The data was collected through semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders and document analysis of published resources. The framework used for the analysis of the findings comprised four core urban planning stages: goals and objectives; engagement (e.g. prediction/modelling/design/planning); implications; evaluation. The study found that when integrating soundscape planning with core urban planning stages it was necessary to first identify the appropriate stakeholders in relation to the project context. It was found that these stakeholders could be wide-ranging and unexpected thereby reinforcing the appropriateness of incorporating an agile approach in the resulting model. The study also found that users’ perceptions are central to soundscape practice (ISO 2014) and need to be considered at each stage of a planning process to produce an effective and sustainable outcome. A variety of specific events, appropriate to the requirements of the stakeholders, are important for engaging planning authorities, users and other stakeholders at different stages. This study also demonstrated that an evidence based evaluation method is recommended in an agile participatory urban soundscape planning process to assess stakeholders’ engagement at each stage and to inform and guide subsequent steps in the planning process relevant to the local context(s). Keywords: applied soundscape planning, participation process, acoustic management, multi- disciplinary
27 Read more
Scenario planners can and do adopt the right sort of filters in data collection e.g. checking whether the evidence is compatible, cohesive, credibly sourced and believed widely for these reasons and not because a data entry is an oft-repeated urban myth. If the checking is not done and the data is riddled with error or myth, then what the scenario participants read becomes locked into the brain as ‘fact’. This is a very difficult to remove, even after many retractions e.g., Listerine made false claims for 50 years in the USA that it helped reduce the severity of colds and sore throats; even after it was forced to retract through corrective advertising ($10m budget), at least 42% of consumers still believed that the product was promoted as an effective cold remedy. What people know about the past constrains what they can imagine about the future. Indeed, research on false memory (e.g., Gerrie et alia, 2006) shows that the brain fills in gaps in episodic memory with information from any source that it might conjure up; even if that is entirely inaccurate.
31 Read more
Given the penetration of smartphones , and the possibility of using smart- phones as sensors, at least two of the three disadvantages above can be elimi- nated. Ethically, the third disadvantage continues to persist, but can be allevi- ated through education and transparency. Citizens must be motivated to donate data to the city, and thereby help create a city-level aggregation of the desired data. However, most citizens are only motivated to participate, if they perceive a benefit to contributing their time and data . We posit that such sensor data, made available by individuals, can be leveraged easily and harnessed to provide a social good. For example, individuals with breathing difficulties can use local- ized pollution data to determine how to plan their commute to work. In this paper, we describe a case-study of a novel application that leverages open-data contributed by individuals, and allows them to reap the benefits of such contri- butions by enabling smart route planning, which incorporates participatory as well as open data sources into the routing algorithm.
10 Read more
The use of GIS for managing all of the data generated through the participatory mapping activities opened up numerous avenues for powerful spatial and statistical analyses that were not possible in Lynch’s time. The tools available in ArcGIS 10.0 and the availability of municipal land use and built environment data in digital format made it possible to combine perceptual data with designated land use for a deeper understanding of children’s environments in this thesis. Lynch could also have done this in his early work by overlaying his suite of ‘image maps’ on top of city land use maps, but it would have been more difficult and time consuming at that time (and such maps did not appear in his text). Nevertheless, it has been argued that the ‘overlay technique’, which is fundamental to geographic information systems and now commonplace in geography and urban studies, was first popularized later in the 1960s by landscape architect Ian McHarg (1967).
114 Read more
A lack of common terminology in charrette reports made distinguishing charrette objectives difficult. For example, whilst one report deliberately distinguished between development framework and masterplan objectives, observing the former is more flexible than the latter, other reports used the terms synonymously suggesting little differentiation (see Port Dundas, 2013-14 compared with Elgin, 2013-14 & Whitburn, 2014-15). Additionally, the comprehensiveness of ‘vision’ differed; some intended it to be a preliminary planning layer influencing more detailed work (Clydebank, 2014-15 & Callander, 2011-12), whilst others gave it greater weight describing something akin to a detailed strategy (Girvan, 2011-12). In response, objectives had to be defined to effectively understand what charrettes sought to achieve, and equally what was out with their remit. In total, seven charrette objectives were derived from content analysis:
22 Read more
variables (e.g. nutrient concentrations and loads) in relation to a driving force of interest (e.g. land use or climate change) (Hofmann et al., 2005; Brown Gaddis et al., 2007). This is done by simulating scenarios. However, models (and mod- ellers) are by themselves inadequate for defining goals and specifying scenarios, a task that is often entrusted to a panel of experts. Yet this is an area that can greatly benefit from the involvement of stakeholders, as the European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD), adopted in 2000, recognises. With the objective of achieving the effective implementation of effective water management for the protection of all Euro- pean natural water bodies, and to improve decision-making processes, the WFD encourages public participation. At its most basic, participation at the local level allows the collec- tion of practical information for scientific assessments and policy-making, but it also serves to better adapt measures to local conditions, to include people concerned in the de- sign process and eventually to raise public acceptance (WFD, 2002b). The WFD distinguishes between providing informa- tion, consultation and public participation (or active involve- ment). All these different and gradually more relevant forms of participation contribute to the participatory policy analysis which underlies Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) (Ridder and Pahl-Wolst, 2005), a set of methods and tech- niques that aim at supporting policy development by design- ing and facilitating active involvement of social agents, and eventually fostering debate and argumentation in an envi- ronmental management process (Hisschem¨oller et al., 2001). The development and use of scenarios is one of the most ap- propriate approaches to contribute to this aim as it is an effi- cient way to gather information from expert judgements.
13 Read more
Project success is essential as it helps in ensuring empowerment of the beneficiaries. Project success is a keyelement to sustainable development of a country. As a way to ensure project success, the community members need to take part in the identification, planning, implementation and monitoring and evaluation of the project.The Korogocho informal settlements have not developed despite several governmental and non-governmental projects in these areas. The residents of this area continue to experience poor living conditions such as lack of better housing as well as poor sanitation. It therefore raises concerns of what makes these projects not achieve their desired outcomes. The Kenya’s new constitution has a key focus on public participation under devolution. It is meant to change the decision making from centralization to decentralization that is to the counties allowing bottom up engagement (Public Participation Key to Kenya’s Devolution). Slum upgrading has faced many issues when it comes to participation due the fact that the slum dwellers are not the legal owners of the areas they reside and sometimes there are questions of whether they should be occupying the area. Due to this, slum residents have been left behind in from taking active part in the political, economic, and cultural activities of the cities (Arimah, 2011).
79 Read more
scenarios have been criticized for being too hierarchical, individualist and western biased, thus limiting their acculturation. White, male, middle-class stakeholders, often with shared value systems that disable or ignore competing worldviews, can dominate the scenario generation process. Third, as the process tracks trends from the past, through the present to the future, it has been argued that perceptual errors in conceiving of history e.g., as limited by national school curricula, can cause fatal flaws in the resultant scenarios . Yet scenario planning, properly construed, retains superiority over forecasting based techniques for gazing into the medium and long term and obtaining a ‘feel’ for how things might shape up and how they might impact on particular situations. Thus, strategy and policy become better informed.
34 Read more
The calibrated groundwater flow model is further used as a tool to set up and test alternative development scenarios under transient conditions. The effects of four scenarios are tested for a planning period of 20 years, consisting of monthly time steps. First of these scenarios, Scenario A is based on the assumption that demand for groundwater will not change for the next 20 years. Scenario B simulates the effects of pumping for irrigation from cooperatives planned by the State Hydraulic Works in the first phase to meet the present additional demand, in addition to the base pumping schedule of April 2007. An area of 780 hectares is predicted to be irrigated with 4.62 hm 3 /year of groundwater extracted at eight cooperatives within the model domain. Scenario C
The paper intends to provide a systematic review of the scientific literature pertaining to local area planning and its implementation for effective governance in urban areas. Such an effort has not been undertaken in past. Nevertheless, the existed literature on the subject was found to be fragmented. It is difficult to be exhaustive, while evaluating and examining a topic such as local area planning as it forms a part of many research areas. Consequently, the paper focused specifically on local area plans and participatory solutions. As a first result, a broad variety of topics was found, some of which have remained popular over time like models and tools of local area planning while few topics have emerged recently, for instance role of web- based GIS in planning for local areas. Furthermore, the research methods by which the focus and gaps in the present planning process are identified have been elaborated. It is discovered that there is a room for further quantitative methodological investigation in the subject. Moreover, considering the citation index analysis of the corpus, it was observed as how few papers form a critical part of the entire research on the subject.
4 as it modifies the perception and material production of place as the object of that knowledge. This process of integration takes place under constraint, as Lefebvre (1991/1974) argues; it is a merger made in the hegemony of abstract space, and the rule of ‘abstraction as a codified practice’ (Poovey 1995: 9). It conceals potentially irreconcilable differences between the rationality of development and the particularities of place attachment and it serves to distract attention from those expressions of lived space that are rejected and excluded from planning practice. The knowledge claims of town planning stem from an understanding of space as abstract; as homogenous, continuous and empty. Abstract space provides a conceptual grid that enables phenomena to be ‘compared, differentiated and measured by the same yardstick’ (Poovey 1995: 9). This notion of functional equivalence provides the rationale for spatial practices that demarcate space into property, submit it to calculation and parcel it into lots for development. Abstract space establishes an epistemology or way of knowing that renders particularities intelligible through generalisation, and through the measurement of norms. It extrapolates a transcendent meaning from statistics and empirically observed facts to establish an incontrovertible and universal narrative (Allen & Crookes 2009).
29 Read more
Milkman et al. (2009) made a study on how to improve decision making and came to the conclusion that scenario-based planning is a technique that makes judgment errors ineffective and improves strategic decisions (Milkman, 2009). This technique is directed towards wise decisions by the decrease of prejudices (Larik, 2004). Non-prejudice in strategic decisions requires active engagement in planning and decision making and as a part of planning and decision making process, only use of suitable tools and efficient techniques have achieved hopeful results (Lark, 2004; Kahneman & Klin, 2010; Kahneman et al., 2011). The main goal of scenario-based planning is to develop pictures of future as much as possible. (Vunder Hijden, 2005) and this enables managers to consider presumptions or outputs of a decision that they ignored before (Mizner & Volf, 2013). This broad view shows that success reduces prejudice and improves the quality of decision (Sol & Kliman, 2004) (figure 1). In addition, scenario-based planning considers the viewpoints of both domestic and foreign beneficiaries equally and external view results in development of decision makers’ views in the field of perspective (Shomiker, 1995).
10 Read more
This phase considers the quantification of the model. Bérard (2010) describes the model formulation involves the process of knowledge elicitation to design a level-rate diagram, decision rules, the quantification and calibration of the model. On the one hand, the author mentions providing values to variables is based on individual meetings or on small nominal groups, as well as using structured and systemized group activities. This study focuses on conducting the session while using client groups. Luna‐Reyes and Andersen (2003) describe the most common way is to elicit parameters and non-linear relations from problem owners by using interviews and group session. The facilitator could ask individual estimates for unknown parameters and provide a summary of the acquired values. Upper and lower limits, and a central tendency as mean or median could be used. Multiple rounds could be conducted, so a certain degree of consensus will be reached. Best practices in this phase found by Martinez‐Moyano and Richardson (2013) is to start small and simple and to build the model out by adding complexity while later quantifying the structure a bit at a time. Furthermore, the equations must also make sense, as all parameters must have real-life meaning. The model could be simulated as early as possible even if models are simple. The model and simulations outcomes could be discussed with the group to consider viability. The assigned values depend on the chosen scenario themes. E.g. in an economic recession theme, economic values as the gross domestic product could be adjusted to change the system and investigate the model during the recession. The determined values and outputs per theme must be provided for later use.
101 Read more
According to Law No. 25 of 2004 concerning the National Development Planning System (SPPN), Planning is a process to determine the appropriate future actions, through a sequence of choices, taking into account available resources. National Development is an effort carried out by all components of the nation to achieve the objectives of the state. Whereas the National Development Planning System is an integrated development planning procedure for producing long-term, medium-term and annual development plans implemented by elements of state and community organizers at the central and regional levels. According to PP No. 8 of 2008 concerning Stages, Procedures for Preparation, Control, and Evaluation of the Implementation of Regional Development Plans. Regional development is the utilization of the resources that are owned to improve the welfare of the community, both in terms of income, employment opportunities, business field, access to policy- making, competitiveness, and an increase in the human development index. Regional Development Planning is a process of preparing the stages of activities involving various elements of stakeholders in it, to use and allocate existing resources to improve social welfare in an area/region within a certain period.
17 Read more