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A Mean Probability Event for a Set of Events

A Mean Probability Event for a Set of Events

There is a concept of a mean set of events in eventology [5]. The mean set of events is the result of literal application of definition of a mean measure set to a random set of events. In this work, definition of a mean measure set was used as an example for definition of a new concept of a mean probability event. What does this analogy tell us about a mean probability event?

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On the New Notion of the Set Expectation for a Random Set of Events

On the New Notion of the Set Expectation for a Random Set of Events

This paper introduces set-valued means of random finite sets, based on various metrics in spaces of subsets of a given finite set E. (This set may be, for example, the lattice of pixels of an image analyzer.) A mean set of a series or a sample of digital images helps to summarize the information and to find stochastic models of random spread process [20]. In Bayesian image analysis, it may be desirable to compute the mean set corresponding to a posterior distribution. Finally, means of random sets play a role in the context of limit theorems.

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Eventological Theory of Decision Making

Eventological Theory of Decision Making

Thus the second method unlike the first one suggests to describe E-behaviour of the reasonable subject at each coincidence of events-circumstances as a non-singular conditional E-distribution. The second method considers the situation which is more general and offers such way of an eventological choice of the reasonable subject when at each coincidence of events-circumstances the reasonable subject chooses his E-behaviour how a conditional E- distribution of the general character «prompts» to him. Thus his own E-distribution (defining his eventological choice within the limits of a set of events-circumstances F ) is defined by formulas of full probability

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Dynamic Room Allocation   Adaptive planning of teaching facilities at the University of Twente

Dynamic Room Allocation Adaptive planning of teaching facilities at the University of Twente

To ensure that new events and reservation requests are not completely random historical data is used. The new events are based on the set of events used to create a blueprint, while the reservations are based on data of actual reservations. The new events are often lectures and tutorials, while the reservations are often small project groups. The occurrence routines for both occurrences is also different. The new event occurrence is used to simulate events which, according to the room allocation, should not occur in the given room. This could be events that have moved from some other time or place without notifying the scheduler team, or an event that takes longer than expected and can stay in their allocated room because no other event was planned directly after it, or something completely different. New events appear randomly in available rooms and their duration is adapted such that they do not overlap with currently allocated events to that room.

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Dealing with uncertainty: an analysis of the severe weather events over Italy in 2006

Dealing with uncertainty: an analysis of the severe weather events over Italy in 2006

The performed analyses succeeded in spotting the major fea- tures causing COSMO-I7 QPF failures and also the good forecast skill shown for a well-defined set of events. Firstly, a poor modelling when mesoscale orographic lifting of humid air processes are addressed. Usually, this leads to large un- derestimation of up-wind side rain depths and to dramatic un- derestimation in the leeside. Secondly, an inadequate rate of turbulent mixing within the planetary boundary layer (PBL), induced by the so-called water vapour “channelling”, is often found as narrow mountainous valleys could not be modelled satisfactorily. In these sectors, an artificial saturation takes place, usually joined to a strongly stable atmosphere, inhibit- ing the accurate modelling of latent and sensible heat in the PBL. This orographic drawback is mainly due to common horizontal resolution of non-hydrostatic mesoscale models ( ∼ 10 km). The last point concerns a lacking humidity ad- vection in the PBL at synoptic scale. The aftermath is the incapability of triggering deep convection with a sufficient humidity rate. Indeed, this kind of miscalculation is not ac- tually a mesoscale model inaccuracy, but mostly a global

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Fostering the social utility of events: an integrative framework for the strategic use of events in community development.

Fostering the social utility of events: an integrative framework for the strategic use of events in community development.

recognized meanings (Getz, 2008), which are the products of a cultural frame conveying symbolic representations or texts of the larger social order. In this regard, the expressive practices and shared meanings of events contribute to the (re)construction of social order where the reality is socially constructed by interconnected patterns of communicative behavior (Berger & Luckman, 1966). Consequently, the proposed framework adopts an ontological conception of events where social conditions and culture are continuously constructed. In this dynamic process, events bring symbolic interpretations to the public discourse by conveying meanings that respond to community needs and concerns. These meanings may foster social networks and enable collective action, hence, strengthening social capital, which, in turn, can affirm, transform or contest the social order. The resulting effect of events on the social order is enabled by the creation of a dramaturgical context that invokes the foundational components of a host community. It should be noted that events do not always generate social capital. This depends on the characteristics, processes and meanings of an event that need to be leveraged for fostering social networks and establishing mechanisms for the equal distribution of event outcomes. Therefore, the integrative framework also proposes the following:

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Jane: a new tool for the cophylogeny reconstruction problem

Jane: a new tool for the cophylogeny reconstruction problem

Other parameters that are less likely to be of interest to the user include those for the rate at which timings are mutated in the genetic algorithm, among others. These parameters are not exposed in the graphical user interface but can be set in the command-line version of Jane. Values of these parameters were systematically evaluated and the best values found are used as defaults. Jane can import its files in either Tarzan or a Nexus- based format. A file must specify the host and parasite trees and the tip associations. Optionally, the file can specify time zones or time zone ranges as well as regions (groups of nodes in the host tree) and the host switch costs between each pair of regions. Jane reports both the best solution found and a set of distinct tim- ings that admit this solution. The user can select such a timing, see a graphical representation of the solution, and modify the solution by clicking on a parasite asso- ciation on the host tree and moving it elsewhere on the host. When the parasite node is selected, Jane displays alternate association sites using three colors: yellow indi- cates that there is no increase in cost in moving the solution to this location, red indicates an increase in cost, and green indicates a decrease in cost. (Since only reports the best solutions found, green choices will not arise initially, but may arise after the user has first made some choices that increase the cost.)

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Analysis of syntactic and semantic features for fine-grained event-spatial understanding in outbreak news reports

Analysis of syntactic and semantic features for fine-grained event-spatial understanding in outbreak news reports

The remainder of this article is organized as follows. We first define the events consid- ered in our work. Next, the details concerning our experimental data are explained. Then, the features and methodologies used for the spatial attribute annotation are discussed. In addition, the results of the experimentation are reported and analyzed. Finally, we discuss the limitations and problems with our methodologies and our future works. Note that most of the examples used for illustration were drawn from the BioCaster corpus [17].

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Windows Log Investigator System for Faster Root Cause Detection of a Defect

Windows Log Investigator System for Faster Root Cause Detection of a Defect

As we understand from the literature survey, there are many algorithms are available for pattern recognition, however there is lot of manual work involved in creating the data set for building log investigator using these algorithms. Since there is a scarcity of data, the model trained is not suitable for real world task. In addition, some drawbacks, which include proper prediction of the defect, are solved by using event viewer. To device a robust policy, the model needs to be trained rigorously with the help of Machine learning. The algorithm will be able to effectively predict the Root cause of defect based on previous data. It will be able to estimate the severity level that should be granted to a developer if it is customized. I stress on building a general algorithm in order to estimate its accuracy and its improvement over other available techniques. This algorithm will be trained on available datasets and tested on the same. Companies will be able to customize it as per their requirements.

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Windows Log Investigator System for Faster Root Cause Detection of a Defect

Windows Log Investigator System for Faster Root Cause Detection of a Defect

As we understand from the literature survey, there are many algorithms are available for pattern recognition, however there is lot of manual work involved in creating the data set for building log investigator using these algorithms. Since there is a scarcity of data, the model trained is not suitable for real world task. In addition, some drawbacks, which include proper prediction of the defect, are solved by using event viewer. To device a robust policy, the model needs to be trained rigorously with the help of Machine learning. The algorithm will be able to effectively predict the Root cause of defect based on previous data. It will be able to estimate the severity level that should be granted to a developer if it is customized. I stress on building a general algorithm in order to estimate its accuracy and its improvement over other available techniques. This algorithm will be trained on available datasets and tested on the same. Companies will be able to customize it as per their requirements.

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Integrating sport events into destination development: A tourism leveraging event portfolio model

Integrating sport events into destination development: A tourism leveraging event portfolio model

shaped by the interaction of formal (events network) and informal (social networks) relationships, event meanings, impacts, and community reactions. In this context, an event portfolio is put together as policy-makers, seeking to respond to community issues, develop policies that determine event roles and objectives. The viability of a portfolio requires that event implementations and their subsequent outcomes maintain its authenticity. This perspective posits that the extent to which there is authentic representation of diverse issues, values, interests, and associated event meanings, a synergistic grounding logic can be developed embedding an event portfolio in the host community’s structures and processes. This grounding logic can strengthen the social and human capital produced in events and shape vital interrelationships and complementarities for enabling their (joint) cross-leverage. The dynamics of this process can determine the sustainability of the event portfolio and community capacity-building. This can occur primarily by allowing the mobilization of the necessary actors, resources, and community support toward planning, coordinating, and managing the portfolio to cross-leverage events and attain desired outcomes. The premise of this conceptualization is based on the potential of an event portfolio to function as a system that assembles different event stakeholders in a network and serves multiple purposes through the employment of joint strategies pursuant to the attainment and magnification of specific ends.

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On Elements of Axiomatizing Eventology

On Elements of Axiomatizing Eventology

Further we are going to pass to the more brief eventologic terminology where terms from KAS are called “Kolmogorov’s terms”. This will allow us to do without addition of the term “universal”. For example, “events” from KAS will be called “ Kolmogorov’s events”, and “general events” from the EAS will be called “events ”, etc. This will make eventologic texts more laconic and, hardly, can lead to misunderstanding.

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Decreasing uncertainty in flood frequency analyses by including historic flood events in an efficient bootstrap approach

Decreasing uncertainty in flood frequency analyses by including historic flood events in an efficient bootstrap approach

dicts the lowest values according to the findings of Toonen (2015). The relatively low positioning of the FF curve con- structed with the 1772 data, compared to our other 1317 and 1901 data sets, might be explained by the fact that the data of Toonen (2015) covering the period 1772–1900 have not been normalized. This period has a relatively high flood in- tensity (Fig. 1). However, only two flood events exceeded 10 000 m 3 s −1 . A lot of dike reinforcements along the Lower Rhine were executed during the last century. Therefore, it is likely that before the 20th century, flood events with a max- imum discharge exceeding 10 000 m 3 s −1 resulted in dike breaches and overflow upstream of Lobith. As a result, the maximum discharge of such an event decreased significantly. Although Toonen (2015) mentions that the effect of recent changes in the river system on discharges of extreme floods of the Lower Rhine is small, we argue that it does influence the flood events with maximum discharges slightly lower than the current main channel and floodplain capacity. Cur- rently, it is possible for larger floods to flow in the down- stream direction without the occurrence of inundations com- pared to the 19th century. Therefore, it is most likely that the 1772–1900 data set of Toonen (2015) underestimates the flooding regime of that specific time period influencing the shape of the FF curve.

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The Effect of Effectual Entrepreneur Set of Means in Opportunity Exploitation Capability

The Effect of Effectual Entrepreneur Set of Means in Opportunity Exploitation Capability

Founders are suggested to have ability to make decision on behalf of a venture on goals and implementations. Founders are leading at formulating and implementing strategic initiatives to capitalize on new opportunities(Mousa & Wales, 2012). More observations from earlier research is that founders are associated with engagement in legitimacy- seeking behaviors, the behaviors which will help to collect stakeholders who will be ready to commit resources in the venture(S. Choi, 2003; Murphy & Tocher, 2011). The study by (Bruton & Rubanik, 2002) has stated that large team of founders accumulate shared prior work experience and shared common industrial background that can overcome part of costs that arise due to the difficulties in building a new social structure. Unfortunately, most studies about founders have not considered the number of founders and their influence in ventures’ various outcomes. This study suggested that the extent to which an effectual entrepreneur to opportunity exploitation capability will frequently depend on the number of founders who are involved in the startups. Therefore the study suggested to find out the moderating effect of number of founders between effectual entrepreneur set of means and opportunity exploitation capability. By that the following hypotheses were formed:

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Towards self-protecting ubiquitous systems : monitoring trust-based interactions

Towards self-protecting ubiquitous systems : monitoring trust-based interactions

Further to the monitor requiring the application to define the risk-state space, it must also define the actions to be taken upon specific changes in state. We are currently examining Event-Condition-Action (ECA) rules [6] for inspiration for a means to communicate this information to the monitor. These rules state that the occurrence of one or more events will trigger evaluation of a condition, which if true will trigger one or more actions. However, we wish to define actions to be triggered based on risk-state rather than the individual conditions to allow for more complex combinations of conditions to be the trigger. We envisage this being done using ECA rules on the risk-state itself. A very basic ECA rule to represent final outcome monitoring could be based on a risk-state space consisting of only one condition, that becomes true when the snapshot of the interaction matches a final outcome configuration. This is therefore a binary state space, and an ECA rule could specify that when the risk-state’s single condition becomes true, an action is triggered that communicates an updated H to the application.

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Set of Guidelines for Persuasive Interfaces: Organization and Validation of the Criteria

Set of Guidelines for Persuasive Interfaces: Organization and Validation of the Criteria

In agreement with Bastien (1996), Bastien and Scapin (1992), Bach (2004), Bach and Scapin (2003, 2010), who have validated ergonomic criteria on the pragmatic aspects of interfaces, we used the same method to validate the criteria of persuasion. The validation method of the checklist consists of a test, completed by experts in HCI (or study participants), identifying persuasive elements in the interfaces using the proposed criteria. If the HCI experts identify the problem with the right criteria, the checklist is relevant. Conversely, if experts misidentify problems and/or criteria, the checklist is irrelevant. Correct identification is calculated and shown on the screen interface, and subject scores are broken down into static vs. dynamic criteria. Correct identification (or good assignment) is when the criteria defined by the participant matches the one identified by the specialist. A high percentage of correct identification reflects the quality of the set of guidelines; a high percentage of mismatches indicates that the set is not efficient.

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Supersitions And Scepticism In Shakespeare’s Julius Caeser, Hamletand Richard Iii

Supersitions And Scepticism In Shakespeare’s Julius Caeser, Hamletand Richard Iii

In Tragedy, in any case, skepticism finds an especially suitable condition, since the question of perception, learning, thoughtlessness and judgment is there. Shakespeare's doubt in regard to esteem speaks to a method of emotional considering, which relies on upon the practices and traditions of wonderful shows and should be recognized from the procedures of legitimate verbose contention. The skeptic would obviously be dubious about such deductions, however the cynic is attempting to influence somebody who has faith in the energy of sound surmising, not to set forward positive authoritative opinions of suspicion. In Shakespeare there is likewise a specific save and a suspicious mentality about the likelihood of the learning about reality and truth from fiction and hallucination exist together in life and we can be misdirected by our observations. 1

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A comparative study of models for the incident duration prediction

A comparative study of models for the incident duration prediction

Figure 3 shows the results of applying the MLR model to the testing data set. From this figure, it can be seen that the model tends to underestimate the durations for the incident cases with higher durations partly because the data set used has relatively small number of severe incidents; the five incident cases with the longest durations have an absolute error higher than 30 min. Moreover 33 out of 50 incident cases have an absolute error less than 20 min, while 45 out of 50 incident cases have an absolute error less than 30 min. The MLR model is more accurate in predicting short duration incident cases where the MAE value is 9 min.

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Wayeb: a Tool for Complex Event Forecasting

Wayeb: a Tool for Complex Event Forecasting

Complex Event Processing (CEP) systems have appeared in abundance during the last two decades. Their purpose is to detect in real–time interesting patterns upon a stream of events and to inform an analyst for the occurrence of such patterns in a timely manner. However, there is a lack of methods for forecasting when a pattern might occur before such an occurrence is actually detected by a CEP engine. We present Wayeb, a tool that attempts to address the issue of Complex Event Forecasting. Wayeb employs symbolic automata as a computational model for pattern detection and Markov chains for deriving a probabilistic description of a symbolic automaton.

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Trivial Fuzzy Topology of the Set of Fuzzy Graphs

Trivial Fuzzy Topology of the Set of Fuzzy Graphs

In 1965, Zadeh introduced the notion of fuzzy set which is characterized by a membership function that assigns a grade of membership ranging from 0 to 1to each of its objects. The first definition of fuzzy graph was introduced by Kaufmann (1973), based on Zadeh ’ s fuzzy relations (1971). The extension of the concepts of ordinary topological space is the fuzzy topology was introduced by C.L.Chang in 1968. Fuzzy topological graph is an important concept in the field of graph theory dealing with uncertainty. This paper is focused on trivial fuzzy topology of the set of fuzzy graphs.In section 2, the classical and basic definitions of fuzzy graph is reviewed. Section 3 deals with the definitions of Trivial topologies of the set of fuzzy graphs. In section 4 ,a study is made on discrete and indiscrete fuzzy topological graph. In Section 5 the concepts such as Amalgamations, edge contraction, connectivity and bouquet of circle of fuzzy graphs are generalized.

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