Subsample Estimates and the Great Moderation
The End of the Great Moderation?
... Moderation and was not factored into the decisions of many decision makers who had increased their leverage and risk taking to levels now widely viewed as having been excessive. Then who is to blame for the recent ...
50
On the Sources of the Great Moderation
... comovements in e¤orts to sort out among competing theories. 6 We believe that such evidence can be useful in assessing the merits of alternative explanations for the Great Moderation, including the two ...
57
Learning and the Great Moderation
... these estimates, and the fraction of the volatility reduction that can be attributed to the learning effect in which we are ...these estimates is about 23 percent for output in our baseline estimated ...the ...
40
Learning and the Great Moderation
... these estimates, and the fraction of the volatility reduction that can be attributed to the learning effect in which we are ...these estimates is about 35 percent for output in our baseline estimated ...the ...
41
On the sources of the Great Moderation
... The remarkable decline in macroeconomic volatility experienced by the U.S. economy since the mid-80s (the so-called Great Moderation) has not just involved a mere scaling down of the size of ‡uctuations. In ...
59
Oil and the Great Moderation
... in‡ation moderation but only around 5% of the GDP growth ...the Great Moderation to oil ...growth moderation and 11% of the in‡ation moderation, Leduc and Sill claim that oil shocks ...
30
Oil and the great moderation
... We asses the extent to which the macroeconomic moderation in the US can be accounted for by changes in oil shocks and the oil share by performing coun- terfactual simulations based on Ba[r] ...
34
Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation
... also been discussed previously (see, for example, Kahn, McConnell, and Perez-Quiros, 2002, and Golob, 2000). One possible explanation for these changes in volatility is an increased emphasis on production smoothing by ...
45
Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation
... the Great Moderation does not lend itself to an “improved forecast” hypothesis, although the fact that sales shocks are less volatile is somewhat more ...the Great Moder- ation, even given fewer ...
41
The great moderation Icelandic style
... Before 1970 the herring fishery caused several large booms in the Icelandic economy followed by serious economic difficulties when natural conditions changed the availability of herring or simply its location. One of ...
33
Financial Fragility in the Great Moderation
... 5 Note that we do not have a hypothesis on the causal relation from nonfinancial-sector credit growth to output growth. Because credit to the nonfinancial sectors is used by nonfinancial firms and households for ...
28
The ‘Great Moderation’ in the United Kingdom
... amount of noise ‘hitting the system’ at each point in time–together with the 16th and 84th percentiles. 11 ln|Ω t | is estimated to have reached a peak in 1973:1, just a few months after the floating of the pound ...
49
The Great Moderation and the ‘Bernanke Conjecture’
... the Great Moderation in an attempt to disentangle the relative contributions of two main candidates: good policy and good ...the Great Moderation has simply been the result of a more benign ...
20
Debt and the U.S. Great Moderation
... the Great Moderation, borrowing by the ...obtain estimates for the volatility of output ...the Great Moderation) and 1984-2008 (during the Great ...
38
VAR analysis and the Great Moderation
... the Great Moderation, which has routinely interpreted changes in the volatilities of the reduced-form innovations, accompanied by weak evidence of changes in the VAR’s coe!cients, as evidence against good ...
40
Explaining the Great Moderation: it is not the shocks
... This point remains true for more general cases of models with more than one shock. An interesting illustration was when the monetary authorities shifted from a passive interest rate policy (pre-1979 period) to ...
20
Understanding the International Great Moderation
... Empirical analysis: (OECD countries (1970-2004)) index capital account openness (Chinn and Ito, 2005) versus macro- economic variability (std of quarterly GDP growth over var- ious time [r] ...
The two greatest : great recession vs. great moderation
... the Great Moderation (GM, ...the Great Recession, it is worth reassessing the Great Moderation hypothesis and understanding what it means for policy going forward” 4 ...a great ...
39
The Myth of Financial Innovation and the Great Moderation
... the great moderation. 1 The great moderation is the period from roughly the mid eighties until the start of the recent …nancial crisis during which business cycle ‡uctuations were small ...
47
America\u27s First Great Moderation
... industrialization of the 1830s, further lending credence to the idea that more factors than just increased industrial production were at work in shaping the Great Moderation. Fishlow disputes the notion ...
46