Our results reinforce and strengthen recent evidence that the monthly real price of oil is forecastable in real time. We find that the most accurate -month ahead forecasts are obtained by including the percent change in U.S. crude oil inventories over the preceding months. The preferred MIDAS forecast has statistically significant directional accuracy as high as 72% at the 12-month horizon, for example, and as high as 78% at the 24- month horizon. It also produces statistically significant MSPE reductions relative to the no-change forecast of 8% at the 12-month horizon and of 16% at the 24-month horizon. These improvements in forecast accuracy are very large by the standard of previous work on forecasting oil prices. At horizons below 12 months, the MSPE reductions of this MIDAS model are quite modest, however.
The MIDAS Project logic model provides targeted participants, services, activities and outcomes, and methods for measuring and reporting progress toward achieving the goals, outcomes, and mission of the project. Annual participatory evaluations will be conducted in coordination with the Advisory Council. Participants in the evaluation will include a staff member from each of the major partners in the project, including CIS/FC, Warren County Board of Education, Warren County Chamber of Commerce, project participants, parents/guardians of participants, mentors, and other key stakeholders, with surveys developed by the team. Service activity, demographics, and outcomes reports generated throughout project will be utilized, along with participant, partner, mentor, and parent/guardian surveys. Based on evaluation planning with the Advisory Council, partners, and community planning participants (teens and adults), the purposes of the evaluation include: (1) determine whether the MIDAS project is conducting the activities as scheduled in the project plan; (2) measure progress toward the outcomes targeted in the project plan and logic model; (3) determine the value of training provided, access to
[r t+j/m (m) ] 2 = β 0 + β 1 B(L 1/m )[r t (m) ] 2 + ε t (2.3)
5 A number of applications to date have been mostly related to volatility modeling. Ghysels, Santa-
Clara, and Valkanov (2002) show that MIDAS regressions for volatility provide a versatile and powerful tool to study the risk-return trade-off and improve upon existing models of volatility. See also Wang (2003) for a Bayesian model comparison which includes MIDAS regression specifications for the risk-return trade- off. Brown and Ferreira (2003), Ghysels, Santa-Clara, and Valkanov (2003a), among others, use various MIDAS regressions to predict future volatility. The relationship between various recently introduced high- frequency data estimators, see e.g. Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold, and Labys (2003) and Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2003), and MIDAS regression is also discussed in Ghysels, Santa-Clara, and Valkanov (2003a).
how tough something is going to be. No matter what, if you want the MidasTouch, you’ll stick with it and see it through. Sometimes I wish things were easy, but they usually aren’t.
When I first became partners with NBC for the Miss Universe and Miss USA pageants, these pageants were not doing well. Thed tng welly were nowhere near prime-time material. They had very few sponsors, and viewership seemed to be lagging. Some people wondered why I’d be interested in them as a business (aside from the beautiful women). But I saw great potential and knew the pageants could become big draws if they were done well. The Miss USA Pageant 2011 took the top ratings for the evening. These are huge national and international events now and are considered the gold standard for beauty pageants. Some people say, “Well, you just got lucky,” but it was more than that. We worked hard at making a good product by updating the format, hiring great producers and aiming for a high-quality product across the board. Our approach and focus served everyone well. Success is seldom a fluke. And the best part about success is that great feeling you get from taking something that was barely breathing and turning it into something alive.
altruistic, generous, or compliant behavior (Crusco & Wetzel, 1984). Previous studies have indicated that a MidasTouch could even occur in a virtual setting, such that after a computer-mediated, remote touch, people are more likely to offer a helping hand (Haans & Usselsteijn, 2009). Unlike in most studies, we employed virtual, mediated touch and investigated the effects of haptic communication in a controlled setting, featuring the Ultimatum game to provide empirical indicators of compliance—the proportion of accepted offers—and generosity—the amount offered for sharing. The mediated setting of the experiment allowed us to forego the use of confederates and control for the normally confounded effects of touch and the distance between communicating parties. Furthermore, commensurable control conditions with auditory messages allowed us to form conclusions regarding the haptic dimension of the Midastouch itself. Finally, investigation of the ERPs elicited by decision cues and feedback displays as well as the somatosensory-evoked potential provided insights on the cognitive significance of touch in
July 6, 2015
We develop a misspecification test for the multiplicative two-component GARCH- MIDAS model suggested in Engle et al. (2013). In the GARCH-MIDAS model a short-term unit variance GARCH component fluctuates around a smoothly time- varying long-term component which is driven by the dynamics of an explanatory variable. We suggest a Lagrange Multiplier statistic for testing the null hypothesis that the variable has no explanatory power. Hence, under the null hypothesis the long-term component is constant and the GARCH-MIDAS reduces to the simple GARCH model. We derive the asymptotic theory for our test statistic and investi- gate its finite sample properties by Monte-Carlo simulation. The usefulness of our procedure is illustrated by an empirical application to S&P 500 return data. Keywords: Volatility Component Models, LM test, Long-term Volatility. JEL Classification: C53, C58, E32, G12
great outbreak. Gone are the days when you have to fiddle with the touch screens and end scratching up. Touch screen displays are ubiquitous worldwide. Frequent touching a touchscreen display with a pointing device such as a finger or if there is any scratch caused due to major problems can result in the gradual de-sensitization of the touchscreen to input and can ultimately lead to malfunction of the touchscreen. To avoid this, a simple user interface for Touchless control of electrically operated equipment is being developed. Elliptic Labs innovative technology lets you control your gadgets like Computers, MP3 players or mobile phones without touching them. A simple user interface for Touchless control of electrically operated equipment. Unlike other systems which depend on distance to the sensor or sensor selection this system depends on hand and or finger motions, a hand wave in a certain direction, or a flick of the hand in one area, or holding the hand in one area or pointing with one finger for example. The device is based on optical pattern recognition using a solid state optical matrix sensor with a lens to detect hand motions. This sensor is then connected to a digital image processor, which interprets the patterns of motion and outputs the results as signals to control fixtures, appliances, machinery, or any device controllable through electrical signals.
Have students complete the reproducible and share what they wrote with the group. Then discuss the theme of the story with students. Help students recognize that lesson and theme are not exactly the same thing. The lesson King Midas learns is about greed and valuing material possessions. He also learns that there are things that are more precious than gold. The larger theme of the story might be expressed as “Be careful what you wish for.” A story about someone who wished she could eat nothing but ice cream would have the same theme.
MIDAS is a program of the Association of Municipalities of Ontario (AMO), developed in conjunction with the Ontario Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing and with funding provided by the Ministry of Finance’s Strengthening Our Partnerships (SOP) program. Access to MIDAS’ FIR and MPMP data is provided free to all Ontario municipalities, creating opportunities to share information, compare data and implement best practices.
• toUch screen
Front PAneL ______________________________________________________
This device contains a built-in Ni-MH (Nickel-Metal Hydride) battery that can be recharged a large but finite number of times. The battery contains chemicals that might wear with time even if not used. Please dispose of batteries properly.
The above process is repeated for each analysis time step. The user directly specifies the maximum number of repetitions and the convergence tolerance in Time History Load Cases. If convergence is not reached, the program automatically subdivides the analysis time interval ∆t and begins reanalyzing. The nonlinear properties of the general link elements of the force type are expressed in terms of differential equations. Solutions to the numerical analysis of the differential equations are required to calculate and correct the internal forces corresponding to nonlinear components in the process of each repetition. MIDAS programs use the Runge-Kutta Fehlberg numerical analysis method, which is widely used for that purpose and known to provide analysis speed and accuracy.
Hutchison would like to see all health care practitioners educated about biofield therapies as a part of their mainstream curricula. “I would like to see Healing Touch become part of the standard of care in all health care facilities, including long- term care facilities where elderly people experience a lack of caring, intentional touch” she says. As she envisions it, “people with mental health issues and addictions would respond to learning Healing Touch, as it would teach them the basics of learning how to be grounded in their bodies, centered in their minds, and attuned to their circumstances.”
Figure 7 Design process of fingerless gloves with background of enlarged scanned responses intended for physical exhibition. Source: Adam Van Osdol
Patterning and Sewing
I started with working with the most basic glove pattern I could find, and quickly realized how time consuming the process was, the hands have the most curves of anywhere on the human body to sew around. There was also the dilemma of making the measurements right to fit each individual. Faced with all of this, I created my own unorthodox method for creating each glove. I started by making a duct tape mold of each individual hand, then creating a pattern from it by cutting it out. To add nuance to the project I decided to make the gloves all fingerless, still covering part of the skin, but leaving the most sensitive receptors of touch exposed, and still able to feel with no barrier. For each person I selected different fabric and thread based on each story, black jersey to resemble a night sky, a tie-dye pillowcase to represent warmth and honey.
Electronic touch switch "2 wires" 230V~ with Triac output for resistive and inductive loads (40-400W incandescent and halogen lamps, ferromagnetic transformers for low voltage 40-400 VA halogen lamps, electronic inductive transformer type 40- 300VA OSRAM HALOTRONIC HTM 70/230-240, HTM 105/230-240, HTM 150/230-240) - controlled by touching the frontal area or from multiple points with NO normal buttons - bistable operating mode - low consumption led for identification in the dark - output