Our paper introduces a model that accounts for the systematic linkage between sovereign default and real exchange rate deprecation. Prior research has noted this empirical connection, but has not explained it quantitatively. Other quantitative models that capture the contribution of output fluctuations to the default strategy, they do not consider the open economy for what it is: a market for the exchange of differentiated goods rather than merely imperfect insurance against stochastic income shocks. Incorporating this goods trade we developed a model in which penalties to the trade channel create realistic patterns of default and adjustment within bankruptcy. In particular, we capture real depreciation without apealing to monetary transmission. From our results, real depreciation can account for most of the depreciation that is observed post-default. The domestic consumption allocations respond realistically to price incentives after default and imply enough loss of welfare to dissuade sovereigns from defaulting.
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The aim of this article is to analyse which macroeconomic indicators affect the default rate in the Czech Republic in the long run and to create a model that would allow to describe the expected share of the default rate depending on the development of selected macroeconomic indicators on the basis of this analysis. The vector error correction model was used for this purpose to determine both long-term and short-term causal relationships. To create the resulting model, the econometric methodology was used, namely unit root tests, Granger causality for the determination of statistically signifi cant relationships, information criteria and the Johansen cointegration test. The results show the validity of expected assumptions in the case of short-term relationships. There was a positive correlation between the unemployment rate and the default rate delayed by one quarter. A negative short-term relationship to the default rate was found in the case of real GDP and in the case of the Czech crown effective exchange rate index with a one-quarter delay. In the case of long-term relationships, surprising results were found regarding GDP and oil price development. As expected, it was found in the long run that the default rate is positively related to the unemployment and effective exchange rate of the Czech crown. The default rate indicator is one of the inputs of the stress testing model developed by the Czech National Bank. The model is based on the time series of the share of outstanding loans and the total amount of loans, and on selected macroeconomic indicators. Achieved empirical results are infl uenced by the fact that the Czech economy has undergone the period of currency crisis. The data used have the character of quarterly time series in the period from 2005Q1 to 2017Q1. EViews software version 9 was used for the calculations.
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This paper explores the impacts of sovereign defaults on trade and income through a real exchange rate channel, in a DSGE model of two risk-averse open economies, with production. In the model, once the borrower country defaults due to an adverse productivity shock, foreign firms reduce their imports of inter- mediate goods from the defaulting country, whose income consequently declines. This causes the defaulting country to adjust its consumption portfolio of domes- tic goods and imports according to its home bias preference, triggers a collapse in its real exchange rate, and leads to a further endogenous plummet in national income. This paper makes three main contributions. First, along business cycles, the model generates countercyclical trade balances, procyclical trade flows, and countercyclical bond spreads with a data-consistent average. Second, following a sovereign default, the model endogenously delivers sharp real exchange rate de- terioration, output drops, trade balance improvements, and bilateral trade flow declines. This paper thus also studies a real exchange rate channel, through which default risks and occurrences, income, and trade interact with each other. Lastly, this model predicts lasting welfare gains for the creditor country through the real exchange rate channel, but relatively short-lived welfare losses for the borrower country and the world during and after a sovereign default.
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Abstract: An overhang relating to the pre-crisis property investment of Irish Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) has been identified as a potential drag on a recovery in employment, invest - ment and output. This paper aims to provide information from survey and loan-level data which can help to quantify the extent of firms’ property-related borrowing. Survey data show that a minimum of one-fifth of Irish SMEs have direct exposure to property debt. Loan-level data show that at least 10 per cent of firms with bank debt have exposure to property investment at the same bank, with this figure rising to 16 per cent when including Buy-To-Let mortgages for a subset of the data. Data on loan default suggest that property-related borrowing has had a detrimental impact on firms: SMEs with property-related borrowings have a loan default rate of 43 per cent, compared to 23 per cent for those without property exposure.
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This paper mainly studies the pricing of credit default swap with the loan as the reference asset under the primary-secondary model. In the contract of credit default swap (CDS), we consider that the defaults of the counterparties are correlated with the stochastic interest rate following Vasi- cek model or the default state of the reference firm. We assume that the company’s default is in- dependent with the company’s prepayment and obtain the pricing formulas of the loan and loan CDS.
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determining anxiety has been different in these two studies (28). Although the way music affects anxiety has not been completely identified yet, in 2008 Lim did a study and showed that listening to music leads to the reduction of arousal caused by nervous tension (35). Music may shift the focus and increase the threshold of malady such as anxiety and pain (36). People close their eyes while listening to music to focus on it and therefore it is like they are not in the dentistry environment (37). Also, music reduces the undesirable sound of the dentistry tools (38). In 2009, Farokh Gissor, et al. reviewed the impact of two types of music (upbeat and light) on the threshold of pain reaction and the rate of fear of a child in a cross-sectional study. In their research, although the determiner of the heart rate was used for determining anxiety, but like our study, their results were also indicative of the reduction of anxiety in patients without a connection with the type of music (39). Although the study of Labeh, et al. in 2007 specified that listening to classical and calming music of the person's own choosing, after encountering the stressful factors leads to a considerable reduction of anxiety, rage and arousal of the sympathetic nervous system. Relaxation was seen more in individuals who listened to this kind of music than those who selected Heavy Metal or those who chose silence (22). In 2008, Lay, et al. showed that listening to music reduces anxiety through ear and increases the temperature of the fingers but does not have a significant impact on the heart rate and blood pressure (26). In contrary, Berbel, et al., in 2007, observed that music has been influential on the reduction of anxiety, heart rate, blood pressure and level of Cortisol just as much as Diazepam in people waiting for surgery (23
Powder dissolution profiles for the raw fenofibrate, com- mercial product (Lipidil Supra) which contains micronized fenofibrate, and powders prepared with different ratios of fenofibrate to Neusilin UFL2 using the supercritical method are shown in Figure 9. For the dissolution study of the commercial tablet, the tablet was ground in a mortar and suspended in dissolution medium. Dissolution of the feno- fibrate adsorbed onto Neusilin UFL2 was higher than that for the raw fenofibrate. Among the powders prepared using the supercritical method, the dissolution rate of fenofibrate increased with decreasing crystalline fenofibrate values, and drug release from the SC3 and SC4 formulations with decreasing crystalline fenofibrate values of 0% was markedly enhanced. Within 5 minutes, approximately 80% of the drug dissolved for the prepared powders (SC3 and SC4), compared with approximately 15% for the raw fenofibrate.
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A VAR model was also used to examine monetary policy actions with regards to the effectiveness of inﬂ ation targeting monetary strategy. The causes of deviations of inﬂ ation from the CNB targets during the ﬁ rst ten years of the inﬂ ation targeting (the period 1998–2007) were studied, again using a VAR model, by Holub.  Based on his ﬁ ndings, he concludes that in the short term the shocks in the prices of agricultural producers have been the most important factor of deviations from inﬂ ation target. However, in the medium term, the development of the real exchange rate gap clearly became the most important factor. The impact of real interest rates appeared as statistically signiﬁ cant only in the shorter period of 2–3 quarters. Similar conclusions can be found in the analysis of Bisová , who observed a stronger and more stable effect of the exchange rate channel on the ﬁ nal target (inﬂ ation target) of CNB’s monetary policy than in the case of interest rate channel. Other analyses also showed that due to the effects of the crisis it is no longer possible to fully rely on Taylor-type monetary rules.  The effectiveness of short-term interest rates becomes problematic especially in times of crisis when the rates may be reduced close to zero levels. As a result, the transmission of the actual macro-economic variables proved to be relatively weak. Many authors suggest
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All scientists like to believe that their research flows effortlessly from one step to the next, based on their previously carefully planned, and logically based, experi- ments. If only if it were true! Most of us, if we are really honest, would have to admit that, more than occasionally, we owe a fair deal to luck. The discovery of a negative impact on soil microbes of heavy metals, even at relatively low con- centrations, is such an example. One of the less well-known long-term experi- ments run by Rothamsted Research is the Woburn Market Garden Experiment. It was started in the 1940s to test the value of farmyard manure and sewage sludge compared to inorganic fertiliser on the yields of vegetable crops including carrot and red beet. The produce was often served for lunch in the Rothamsted canteen until a famous Rothamsted scientist decided to analyse the heavy metals in the vegetables. Although what happened next is anecdotal, it comes from a reliable source. Apparently, he rushed into the canteen one lunch time, arms waving and Table 1.4 Impact of field fumigation with formaldehyde on the size of the soil microbial biomass as measured using FI, and its rate of recovery.
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After providing the samples the light absorption rate in 520 nanometers wave-length was measured by spectrophotometer and the rate of soluble sugars in sample plant and the pioneer crops has been determined by the use of standard curve. We used concentrations of 0, 20, 40, 60, 80, 100 glucose micrograms in milliliter in order to provide the standard curve.
phases: during pre-upper Sarmatian and proper pre- Middle Pliocene ones. The maximum duration of these two phases (upper Sarmatian - Lower Pliocene, if we assume that the salt was pressed continuously) is about 7 million years. The minimal growth rate of a diapir was 3100 m: 7 million yrs = 440 mm / 1000 years. If we assume that the salt stock was formed for a single phase, pre-Middle Pliocene one, time of its growth is not more than 1 million years, and the growth rate, which in this case is maximal, reaches 3100 m : 1 million yrs = 3100 mm / 1000 years.
This study provides a new epidemiological rule to uncover the gene link between cancer diseases. The concept of direct method of standardization for calculating the age standard- ized incidence rate (ASIR) of a disease is the foundation of our epidemiological rule for this study. Actually, comparing the morbidity and mortality rates in different regions is an essential step in evaluating the health status of an entire population. The crude rates of mor- bidity and mortality are not suitable for comparison when there are different age structures in different populations. Therefore, either direct or indirect methods of standardization can be used to control the variables that may otherwise confound the observed relationship. However, “age” and “sex” are the most commonly used variables in standardization. 1–5
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TEM evaluation revealed that starch LASiS produced spherical particles, whereas LASiS in water resulted in semi- spherical and more erratic particles (Figure 6A). Furthermore, with increasing repetition rate, increased cluster formation and deviation from sphericity was observed, which is in good agreement with the spectroscopic results. The mean particle size at 40 Hz repetition rate was 30.8 ± 3.9 nm (in the single measurement in Figure 6B: 27.91 nm) and contrary to the observations in starch solution, several large clusters of at least 230 nm in diameter were observed (Figure 6B). Moreover, visual comparison of Figures 3 and 6 shows that the particle size was considerably smaller in the starch solution compared to that in distilled water. Indeed, the mean particle size for LASiS in water was significantly larger than for starch LASiS and the increase in mean particle size scaled at least seven times faster with the repetition rate, as deduced from the slopes in Figure 4. These results are generally in good agreement with our previous observations 18,30 and the
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centrations (60%, 40%, 20% or 0%) caused a rapid decrease in the HR within 30 minutes. Even when equilibrated with 0% oxygen (95% N 2 , 5% CO 2 ), most embryos were able to maintain a low level of cardiac activity. When the embryos were regassed with 95% oxygen after remaining for 2 hours without oxygen, the HR rapidly recovered to a normal rate, even in embryos where the heartbeat had stopped. This sug- gests that the embryos entered a survival mode restricting cellular activity in an ordered manner in response to falling levels of ATP. This is in agreement with studies in pregnant
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Results: The composite LSR score on the day after the last application of ingenol mebutate gel was an important predictor of the speed of resolution of LSRs. The rate of resolution was greatest for AKs treated on the face, followed by the scalp, and then the trunk and extremities. All patients were expected to have minimal LSR scores for the face and scalp at 2 weeks, and for the trunk and extremities at 4 weeks.
Introduction: Heart rate (HR) based zone training has become an increasingly popular method of exercise training. However, the use of age-predicted maximal HR as a way to determine training zones has come under scrutiny. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the accuracy of HR-based zone training using predicted maximal heart rate (PMHR) versus measured maximal heart rates (MMHR). Methods: Twenty-six college-aged subjects participated in the current study. Subjects completed two testing sessions: a PMHR-based zone training session and a maximal treadmill test to determine MMHR. The PMHR-based zone training session consisted of seven, 5-minute exercise bouts carried out at various percentages of PMHR. The achieved exercise HRs were then compared to zones that were calculated from MMHR, in order to determine what zone they would have been in if they had used MMHR instead of PMHR for the initial calculations. Results: Eighty-six percent (156/182) of the time subjects were within the correct training zone based upon PMHR. When subjects were not in the correct zone, they were never off by more than one zone and were within 1-4% of the correct zone. Conclusion: The current study suggests that for college-aged students, using PMHR to define training zones is relatively accurate; the majority of the time subjects were in the correct HR-based training zone. However, for those individuals who may not be able to get their HR into the upper zone (i.e., Zone 5), we advise the use of an RPE scale in conjunction with exercise HR in order to prevent overexertion.