The Single Market for Long-Term Savings

Top PDF The Single Market for Long-Term Savings:

The Short-term and Long-term Market

The Short-term and Long-term Market

Ø Most investors trade for profit in the short-term. There is no compelling reason an investor to trade today instead of tomorrow other than risk-returns concerns n Corollary: for every trade, there is a buyer and a seller. One is smarter than the other

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Long term savings: the case of life insurance in France

Long term savings: the case of life insurance in France

“ratchet effect”, which each year offers policyholders the full and entire ownership of the returns recorded in the past. For a long time, poor regulation of the sector’s solvency enabled policyholders to have the best of both worlds, i.e. enjoy liquid, safe and profitable savings products thanks to investments in relatively high‑risk assets. This was made possible through two complementary mechanisms, an implicit government insurance against the risk of default of insurance companies and free portfolio insurance generated by the rate guarantee. The much tighter capital requirements imposed by Solvency II will logically force policyholders to eventually choose between safety and profitability. By reducing the moral hazard generated by the implicit government insurance against default risk, they will lead to an increase in the cost of capital for life insurers holding a large amount of non‑hedged high‑risk assets. The market will therefore have to choose between liquidity, safety and profitability. In the short run, longterm profitability has been sacrificed, since insurers have drastically cut back the share of their reserves invested in equities and real estate in recent years. In this article, I develop the idea that this development is incompatible with the public interest, not only from the point of view of savers but also in terms of our economy’s dynamism. Economic efficiency suggests another route: that of a market shift towards longterm savings products where financial risk is more evenly shared between the parties involved. This should lead to a greater investment of life insurance outstandings in the financing of our economy.
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Long-term savings: The case of life insurance in France

Long-term savings: The case of life insurance in France

“ratchet effect”, which each year offers policyholders the full and entire ownership of the returns recorded in the past. For a long time, poor regulation of the sector’s solvency enabled policyholders to have the best of both worlds, i.e. enjoy liquid, safe and profitable savings products thanks to investments in relatively high‑risk assets. This was made possible through two complementary mechanisms, an implicit government insurance against the risk of default of insurance companies and free portfolio insurance generated by the rate guarantee. The much tighter capital requirements imposed by Solvency II will logically force policyholders to eventually choose between safety and profitability. By reducing the moral hazard generated by the implicit government insurance against default risk, they will lead to an increase in the cost of capital for life insurers holding a large amount of non‑hedged high‑risk assets. The market will therefore have to choose between liquidity, safety and profitability. In the short run, longterm profitability has been sacrificed, since insurers have drastically cut back the share of their reserves invested in equities and real estate in recent years. In this article, I develop the idea that this development is incompatible with the public interest, not only from the point of view of savers but also in terms of our economy’s dynamism. Economic efficiency suggests another route: that of a market shift towards longterm savings products where financial risk is more evenly shared between the parties involved. This should lead to a greater investment of life insurance outstandings in the financing of our economy.
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Long-Term Care and the Housing Market

Long-Term Care and the Housing Market

and ESRC Centre for Population Change June 2012 Abstract: This paper examines the combined effects of population ageing and changes in long-term care policy on the housing market. Those needing care prefer to receive it at home rather than in institutional settings. Public authorities prefer to provide care in residential settings which are generally lower cost than institutional care. The trend away from institutional provision towards care at home is endorsed by national governments and by the OECD. Nevertheless, as the number requiring care increases, this policy shift will maintain the level of housing demand above what it would otherwise be. It will also have distributional consequences with individuals less likely to reduce their housing equity to pay for institutional care, which in turn will increase the value of their bequests. Empirical analysis using the UK Family Resources Survey and the British Household Panel Survey shows that household formation effects involving those requiring long-term care are relatively weak and unlikely to significantly offset the effects of this policy shift on the housing market and on the distribution of wealth. 1
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Long-Term Global Market Correlations

Long-Term Global Market Correlations

ABSTRACT In this paper we examine the correlation structure of the major world equity markets over 150 years. We find that correlations vary considerably through time and are highest during periods of economic and financial integration such as the late 19th and 20th centuries. Our analysis suggests that the diversification benefits to global investing are not constant, and that they are currently low compared to the rest of capital market history. We decompose the diversification benefits into two parts: a component that is due to variation in the average correlation across markets, and a component that is due to the variation in the investment opportunity set. There are periods, like the last two decades, in which the opportunity set expands dramatically, and the benefits to diversification are driven primarily by the existence of marginal markets. For other periods, such as the two decades following World War II, risk reduction is due to low correlations among the major national markets. From this, we infer that periods of globalization have both benefits and drawbacks for international investors. They expand the opportunity set, but diversification relies increasingly on investment in emerging markets.
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The Responsiveness of Private Savings to Medicaid Long Term Care Policies

The Responsiveness of Private Savings to Medicaid Long Term Care Policies

by almost $60,000. The Medicaid reimbursement rate for nursing home care in 1971 was about $30,000 a year. This suggests that the medically-needy program crowds out 2 years of private savings for nursing home care. 18 While the 1960s provides some useful variation for testing the savings effects of Medicaid policy, relying on these early years of Medicaid to assess the current effects of Medicaid has number of limitations. First, behavior in the 1960s may not be generalizable to the present. Second, because the SCF data in our analysis are made up of pooled cross sections, some differences in savings may reflect cohort differences. Finally, the empirical strategy assumes that households were saving for nursing home care prior to the MAA and Medicaid programs. Data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services indicate that private expenditures for nursing home care as a percentage of total health care expenditures in the United States have hovered between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent of total health care expenditures between 1960 and 2000. Although these data lend validity to the assumption, we nonetheless turn to more recent policies and data from the Health and Retirement Study to study the effects of Medicaid in the 1990s.
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The 401(k) and the HSA: Partners in long-term savings opportunities

The 401(k) and the HSA: Partners in long-term savings opportunities

Communicating early, often, and consistently over time is paramount to success. In addition to the specifics about how each account works, there are two key concepts that can help employees save more in both accounts. First, provide employees with basic budgeting information to help them control their spending so they have money to save. Second, help employees understand the tax advantages offered by these accounts when used for long-term saving.

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SAVINGS. Short-term needs or. emergencres. Savings account, mone)- market account, CD

SAVINGS. Short-term needs or. emergencres. Savings account, mone)- market account, CD

Swindlen I am with the International Mining Company and for a limited time we are selling investment units in high-yield gold and silver mines in southern Texas. John[r]

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Long-Term Evolution of Russia’s Market Integration

Long-Term Evolution of Russia’s Market Integration

As it follows from Fig. 2, the monthly evolution of integration corroborates in general principal trends found by the analysis with the annual data. It merely adds some details of intra- year evolution (however, the above reservations should be taken into account). Perhaps, the most interesting is the behavior of  in European Russia in 1992–1993. In some months,  is negative, that is, the price dispersion decreases with increasing income dispersion (or vice versa). This evidences inadequacy of the applied model for the first years of transition to market economy. This is the case, indeed. As noted above, estimates of the model for those years must be treated with caution, as only the seeds of market existed at that time. Inter-regional trade was chaotic then; transaction participants proceeded not from market logic (profit maximization), but from other considerations, e.g., eliminating shortage in one or other good. Pricing was fairly chaotic as well, as there was no experience of acting in the market environment. Therefore, no wonder pathological (from the viewpoint of the economic theory) relationship between demand and prices emerged from time to time. It is not inconceivable that in cases the estimates of the model for that time suggest a linkage between dispersions of incomes per capita and prices we have in fact a spurious regression. Namely, nonsynchronous across regions rise in both prices and incomes led to rise in their inter-regional dispersions, whereas no linkage between them existed. Apparently, since 1994–1995 such a linkage appeared and inter-regional goods arbitrage started developing.
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Market Survey of Long-Term Care Costs

Market Survey of Long-Term Care Costs

› Security › Transportation › Two or more meals per day Some communities, particularly continuing care retirement communities (CCRC) offering multiple levels of care from independent living through nursing home care, also charge a one-time entrance fee and have additional fees for items such as meal delivery to living quarters, dementia care, or extra transportation services. A growing number of states have begun covering assisted living costs for those low-income individuals who qualify through Medicaid waiver programs, although most residents pay privately or through a long-term care insurance policy. Twenty percent of the communities surveyed are part of a CCRC, and 1% charge an entrance fee.
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Market Survey of Long-Term Care Costs

Market Survey of Long-Term Care Costs

Some communities, particularly continuing care retirement communities (CCRC) offering multiple levels of care from independent living through nursing home care, also charge a one-time entrance fee and have additional fees for items such as meal delivery to living quarters, dementia care, or extra transportation services. A growing number of states have begun covering assisted living costs for those low-income individuals who qualify through Medicaid waiver programs, although most residents pay privately or through a long-term care insurance policy. Sixteen percent of the communities surveyed are part of a CCRC, and 1% charge an entrance fee.
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Long-term ecology of investors in a financial market

Long-term ecology of investors in a financial market

Long-term ecology of investors in a financial market Federico Musciotto 1 , Luca Marotta 1 , Jyrki Piilo 2 & Rosario N. Mantegna 1,3,4 ABSTRACT The cornerstone of modern finance is the efficient market hypothesis. Under this hypothesis all information available about a financial asset is immediately incorporated into its price dynamics by fully rational investors. In contrast to this hypothesis many studies have pointed out behavioral biases in investors. Recently it has become possible to access databases that track the trading decisions of investors. Studies of such databases have shown that investors acting in a financial market are highly heterogeneous among them, and that heterogeneity is a common characteristic of many financial markets. The article describes an empirical study of the daily trading decisions of all Finnish investors investing Nokia stock over a time period of 15 years. The investigation is performed by adapting and using methods and tools in network science. By investigating daily trading decisions, and by constructing the time-evolution of statistically validated networks of investors, clusters of investors —and their time evolution — which are characterized by similar trading profiles are detected. These clusters are performing distinct trading decisions on time scales ranging from several months to twelve years. These empirical observations show the presence of an ecology of groups of investors characterized by different attributes and by various investment styles over many years. Some of the detected clusters present a persistent over-expression of specific investor categories. The study shows that the logarithm of the ratio of pairs of statistically validated trading decisions is different for different values of the market volatility. These findings suggest that an ecology of investors is present in financial markets and that groups of traders are always competing, adopting, using and eventually discarding new investment strategies.
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2015 Long-Term Capital Market Forecasts

2015 Long-Term Capital Market Forecasts

We derive return forecasts for asset classes from the blend of base case and alternative economic scenarios. For U.S. bonds, we use the blended scenario interest rate expectations to calculate expected returns for bonds of various durations. Bond expected returns are modeled as the sum of current yield and a capital gain (or loss) based on duration and expected change in yields. For non-U.S. bonds, the process is similar and includes an adjustment for currency movements. Return expectations also reflect spreads, expected default and recovery experience. For U.S. equities, we estimate earnings and dividends for the S&P 500 Index using the above macroeconomic assumptions. Earnings growth is constrained by the neoclassical assumption that profits as a share of GDP cannot increase without limit, but must rather converge to a long-run equilibrium determined by productivity. We then use a dividend discount model to determine fair value for the index each year during the forecast period. Returns for other U.S. equity indices, including REITs, are derived from the S&P 500 forecast. These other equity classes are modeled on the basis of a single index factor model in which beta sensitivities of each asset class with respect to the market portfolio are derived from our forward-looking covariance matrix estimation described below. Each equity asset class return is the sum of the risk-free interest rate and a specific risk premium determined from our estimate of beta sensitivity and market risk premium forecasts.
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Anticipating Long-Term Stock Market Volatility

Anticipating Long-Term Stock Market Volatility

realized volatility, RV t . Note that RV t is typically high during recessions and low during expansions, i.e., stock market volatility is negatively related to economic activity. The four long-term components mirror this counter-cyclical pattern of stock market volatility nicely. Nevertheless, there are also distinct differences. The long-term component corre- sponding to housing starts, τ t HS , increases during the turbulent economic periods of the 70’s, 80’s, and the recent financial crisis. Unsurprisingly, it does not explain the high volatility around the dot-com bubble in the early 2000’s. The long-term volatility based on the term spread, τ t T S , clearly increases well before all the recessions and appears to actually anticipate them. For example, τ t T S begins to increase in 2005, hence signaling uprising stock market risks well before the official start of the last recession in December 2007. Given that the NBER dated December 2007 as the beginning of the recession only one year later in December 2008, the leading property of τ t T S is even more impressive. In contrast, the long-term volatility based on new orders, τ t N O , typically takes its maximum towards the end of a recession and is therefore rather coincidental. Furthermore, τ t T S is much smoother than τ t N O which directly reflects the differences in ˆ ω 2 . In contrast, the long-run volatility component from the GARCH-MIDAS-RV model, τ t RV , is dominated by the 1987 stock market crash and the recent financial crisis. It hardly increases during the other recession periods. Moreover, while the other long-term components often gradually increase well before recessions, the behavior of τ t RV is much more backward looking.
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ANALYSIS OF UK LONG TERM CARE MARKET

ANALYSIS OF UK LONG TERM CARE MARKET

Any person with permanent residency in Sweden and who has impediments is eligible for care, solely determined by an assessment of needs. To avoid financial exploitation of the individual, a maximum monthly fee for long term care is set by the central government with further conditions imposed, depending on the financial situation of the individual. This guarantees that all older adults in need of care are able to receive treatment in Sweden. Since the welfare system was established and some of the former responsibilities of the individual (or the family) have been taken over by the state, Swedes have come to trust and rely on the state to take care of older adults, to the extent that the discussion of informal care begun just some 15 years ago has only recently been considered in political decision-making. Yet the rapidly ageing population has increasingly turned policy-makers’
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Inaction and Long Term Properties in the Housing Market

Inaction and Long Term Properties in the Housing Market

It is often observed in nature, for example in hydrology in economics and telecommunications, and it is closed related to self-similarity. Self-similarity refers to invariance in distribution under a suitable change of scale. To un- derstand the relationship between self-similarity and long-range dependence, suppose that the self-similar process have stationary increments. These in- crements form a stationary time series which can display long-range depen- dence. Then a central limit-type theorem will yield a self-similar process with stationary increments. The intensity of longrange dependence is re- lated to the scaling exponent of the self-similar process. We shall provide a summary of stationary processes with long-memory; we shall show in details fractional Brownian Motion, the Gaussian self-similar process with stationary increments; its increment process known as fractional Gaussian Noise which displays longrange dependence, and a large class of long-range dependent stationary sequences called FARIMA, which are commonly used in modeling such physical phenomena.
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A long term single pulse study of the Vela pulsar

A long term single pulse study of the Vela pulsar

Table 8.1 on page 156 shows an overall summary of glitch arrival times at the solar system barycentre from both telescopes. The Mount Pleasant figures for ∆ν ν and ∆ ˙ ν ˙ ν were obtained using 4 days of 10 s integrated data, whereas the fitting of the glitch epoch is based on 72 min of single pulse data. The Ceduna data is based on 15 h of 10 s integrated data, but with only ≈ 1 h of pre-glitch timings available, this meant ∆ν ν was not ideal and ∆ ˙ ν ˙ ν was not able to be determined. The difference in ∆ν ν between the two telescopes is because TEMPO2 underestimates the uncertainties due to the unmodelled effects of red noise (Shannon et al. 2016).
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Long Term Results of Ewing’s Sarcoma—In a Single Institution

Long Term Results of Ewing’s Sarcoma—In a Single Institution

Email: * shchung@kosin.ac.kr Received December 18 th , 2012; revised January 20 th , 2013; accepted January 28 th , 2013 ABSTRACT Purpose: This study analyzed oncological and functional outcomes of treatment for Ewing’s sarcoma, as well as its significant risk factors through long-term follow up. Objective and Method: Between September 1990 and April 2009, 20 cases that were diagnosed and treated as Ewing’s sarcoma in Kosin University Gospel Hospital were entered onto the study. Mean follow-up period was 45.4 (12 - 108) months. There were 7 cases of male and 13 cases of female, and mean age was 19.9 (5 - 48) years old. Retrospective review was done about treatment outcomes, complications, and significant risk factors. Results: In terms of oncologic results, there were 9 cases of CDF (continuous disease free), 1 case of NED (no evidence of disease), 4 cases of AWD (alive with disease), 5 cases of DOD (dead of disease), and 1 case of DWOD (dead with other disease). Five-year overall survival rate of all the patients was 70.0% and event-free survival rate was 50.0%. The mean MSTS (Musculoskeletal Tumor Society) score was 15.9 (53%) points at last fol- low-up. Among prognostic factors of age at diagnosis, Enneking stage, size of tumor, site of primary lesion, and distant metastasis, 5-year survival rate of groups without metastasis were 90.9%, nevertheless 44.4% in other group with the metastasis showing statistical significance (p = 0.020). Postoperative complications were 3 cases of infection, each 2 cases of ankylosis and metal failure, and each 1 case of leg length discrepancy, periprosthetic fracture, and local recur- rence. Conclusion: Five-year survival rate of this study was similar to that of multicenter studies in America and Europe. Among the prognostic factors, distant metastasis was proven to be most significant. Enneking stage, size of tumor and site of primary lesion are also important and could be statistically significant if with more cases.
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Long Term Savings A comparative survey of 6 EU countries and the US

Long Term Savings A comparative survey of 6 EU countries and the US

Incentive to various investment options designed to help beneficiaries to manage ce t e to a ous est e t opt o s des g ed to e p be e c a es to a age their segregated account But the existence of products matching OCERP standards does not necessarily mean that the local pension market is already mature

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The financial support for long-term elderly care and household savings behaviour

The financial support for long-term elderly care and household savings behaviour

• time-varying regressors at regional level within x irt to proxy regional-specific shocks that might have affected savings during the period of the policy reform. In this last sensitivity analysis, we remove the time-varying regressors at regional level from the specification of the savings equation. Instead, we replace them by a full set of interactions between tax year indicators and regional indicators, and we define young individuals aged between 25–30 in Scotland as belonging to the control group. We as- sume that young individuals are unaffected by the policy as they do not internalise and plan for old age expenditures. 24 If this assumption is correct, we can identify the pol- icy effect without the need of the common trend. The interactions between the tax year and the regional indicators will indeed capture and estimate differential unobserved time trends in savings across regions. As pointed out by Gruber (1994), the assumption for the consistency of a DDD estimator are fairly week, since it requires that there should not be contemporaneous shocks affecting the savings of the treated in the same year as the policy. However, if the assumption that young Scottish individuals are not affected by the introduction of free personal care fails, then the DDD estimator will return a biased upward policy effect provided that savings of young individuals are negatively affected by the reform. In such a case, our DDD estimates can be interpreted as an upper bound
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