Jenkins et al. 2014 ; Knowlton et al. 2007 ; Mills et al. 2014 ;
Zacharias et al. 2015 ).
The potential to adapt is supported by a growing body of evi- dence that shows populations throughout the world are becoming less sensitive to high temperatures; for example, see reviews by Boeckmann and Rohn ( 2014 ) and Hondula et al. ( 2015 ). However, there is variation in the magnitude of the declines in sensitivity that have been observed between studies (e.g., Bobb et al. 2014 ; Schwartz et al. 2015 ; Todd and Valleron 2015 ), across locations ( Gasparrini et al. 2015a ), and over time ( Åström et al. 2016 ). There are also overall limits to adaptation ( Smith et al. 2014 ; Woodward et al. 2014 ) as, for example, air condition- ing penetration reaches 100% or as physiological tolerance reaches biological limits. In addition, many studies neglect to unpick the factors that have driven declines in sensitivity to heat and whether the declines are due to autonomous or planned adap- tation ( Petkova et al. 2014b ). Such omissions preclude an under- standing of the policies that could help foster the most e ﬃcient adaptation practices. Multiple data sets on factors such as air con- ditioning penetration, human behavior, activation of heat health warnings, and changes in health care provision are needed to address this issue, but such data sets are rarely available at a su ﬃ- cient temporal resolution (several decades) to elucidate the e ﬀects. The research needed to reveal these important insights Address correspondence to S.N. Gosling, School of Geography, University
spread (minimum to maximum values that constitute the range, in parentheses) of ΔMort-CC impacts (per 100,000) due to adaptation modelling uncertainty (calculated from the largest range in impacts from all the adaptation modelling methods investigated), climate modelling uncertainty (spread and range for 5 GCMs with no adaptation) and emissions uncertainty (spread and range for two RCPs with one GCM and with no adaptation). The range values describe the width of each bar in Figure 2.
First, studies using content analysis — that is, systematic coding and analyzing of policy or project documents — frequently reported challenges related to accessing documents. Most studies using content analyses methods recognized some of the ambiguities of coding (Heidrich et al., 2013), but did create a transparent codebook and/or included multiple coders to calcu- late inter-coding reliability scores to address these issues. However, many of the limitations were associated with the docu- ments used. Overall, existing repositories where relevant documents are collected are scarce or are still under construction. Several studies use the UNFCCC database with National Communications — self-reported progress on mitigation and adapta- tion for a defined time period, for example. Although these provide a comprehensive overview, they are indicative for the kind of limitations often reported with similar databases. Several studies have noted, for example, the poor reporting requirements provided by the UNFCCC leaving much room for member states to cherry-pick what they want to report (Lesnikowski et al., 2013). Government documents tend to over report government-driven and planned adaptation, leaving less room for private and autonomous adaptation, thus portraying a skewed picture of the type of adaptation taking place (Fleig, Schmidt, & Tosun, 2017). Burch, Mitchell, Berbes-Blazquez, and Wandel (2017) note that reports in the IDRC database were of significantly varying quality which made analysis and comparison difficult. Moreover, studies note the potential for “ greenwashing, ” or governments relabelling existing policies as new adaptation initiatives, between reporting periods (Lesnikowski et al., 2016). Successful adaptation efforts are more likely to be reported, and the less successful adaptation efforts are (purposefully) over- looked given the (political) nature of these reports (Bizikova, Parry, Karami, & Echeverria, 2015; Castán Broto & Bulkeley, 2013). Moreover, successful or best-practice adaptation measures are frequently reported in multiple reports, thereby increas- ing the chances of “ double counting ” adaptation actions for multiple time periods (Lesnikowski et al., 2016). Betzold and Weiler (2017) argue that developing countries specifically might over-report the climate relevance of their aid, in the hope of receiving more aid funding.
treated alike; where cases differ, ‘material principles’ of justice can be
applied to determine the extent to which, and the means by which, differential treatment is justified. These include considerations of need, the capacity to pay, and various notions of moral responsibility (Miller, 2007). One of the latter, known as ‘outcome responsibility’, is the idea that people (and public authorities) should bear responsibility for their own actions and decisions. Another is the idea of ‘remedial responsibility’: this responsibility arises whenever there is a situation needing a remedy. If those who have caused the harm are in a position to rectify the problem, then they have a moral responsibility to do so. If they unable to, but there are others with the requisite capacity (e.g. a central government), then the remedial responsibility falls to those who are most capable. Regarding the costs of climatechangeadaptation, the relevant principles of distributive justice should be applied both intergenerationally and intra- generationally.
inundate water infrastructure, posing significant challenges for managers of freshwater resources and ensuring adequate water supply will be more difficult. All of these climate-changerelated impacts pose risk to our ability to accomplish our mission, operations, and programs.
These risks include, but are not limited to risks to physical assets and real property; operations; human health and safety; physical and mission security; infrastructure and support systems; and external coordination. These impacts could affect both the CNCS headquarters operations, and the operations of its state offices and campuses.
The climatechange agenda is the most important broad international process of specific relevance to MACC. Currently, there are several international and local organizations involved in climatechange and adaptation in Malawi. Notable ones include the UNDP, MEET (Malawi Environmental Endowment Trust), and international NGOs such as Norwegian Church Aid (NCA), DanChurchAid, Oxfam, Action Aid, Concern Universal and World Vision. UNDP is developing the UNDP – Sustainable Land Management (SLM) and ClimateChangeAdaptation Programme in the Shire River Basin. The programme aims to address Sustainable Land Management and ClimateAdaptation through strengthening the adaptive capacity of communities in the Shire Basin. USAID through MEET supports the management of the Nkuwadzi Forestry Reserve in Nkhata Bay District to enhance rural livelihoods and ensure continuous forest cover for carbon conservation, maintenance of biodiversity, protection of watershed and prevention of soil erosion. DFID is supporting the Building Capacity for ClimateChangeAdaptation in two districts in the southern region of Malawi through LEAD which has as main purpose to ensure that the livelihoods of communities in the target areas are more secure from threats posed by climatechange.
In 1995 the GOL joined the global community by
ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC) and has completed its first greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory (2000)
Certain options are less frequently mentioned, which may reflect the fact that the adaptive capacities within agriculture remain low, and also that the nature of the dataset is cross-sectional, which does not allow us to make an analysis of the adaptation of the productive technology over the long run. The level of adjustments to climatechange is negligible for change and implement soil and water management techniques (5% in both cases), mix crop and livestock production, mix crop and fish farming production (respectively 4% and 3%), change from crop to livestock production and from livestock to crop production (1% and 2%). Households have limited access to finance: only 1% of households in the sample declare resorting to formal insurance. Another 1% can afford setting up communal seed banks/food storage. Some strategies are more expensive and proactive than others: change crop variety or crop type, change or implement soil and water management techniques, build water harvesting scheme for domestic consumption or for crops, irrigate and irrigate more, change from livestock to crop production, and from crop to livestock production. However, changing the amount of land under production, changing the pattern of crop consumption, mixing crop and livestock production and mixing crop and fish farming production, seeking off-farm employment, and migrating can be implemented ex post, once the natural hazard occurred (reactive adaptations). They correspond to a passive way of adaptation to climatechange, requiring less budgetary resources.
maintaining an outdated image data base of the beach at the expense of misrepresenting reality. This strategy can work insofar as there are remnants of the beach, but beach erosion in Playacar is rampant. The second essentialist strategy aimed to control the biophysical reality (i.e., preventing its change) through engineering interventions. This strategy consisted of adaptation measures undertaken by the hoteliers to restore the beach; however, these short-term measures were incapa- ble of going beyond cosmetic alterations. A longer term engineering strategy would have entailed higher economic costs and a set of gov- ernance conditions which are not always in place in lesser economi- cally developed countries. More importantly, beach reconstruction will always present significant limitations in trying to accurately repro- duce a reality akin to essential portrayals based on pristine land- scapes. In fact, Playacar’s hoteliers missed the opportunity to devise new non-essentialist adaptive representational strategies that internal- ized the occurring changes while concurrently selling new forms of recreation activities (e.g., sun bathing in the sea on a natural looking sand bag).
Resources can be expressed as the economic assets, capital resources, financial means, wealth, or poverty, the economic condition of nations and groups. Clearly resource is a determinant of adaptive capacity (Brooks et al., 2005). It is true that developed nations are better prepared to bear the costs of adaptation to climatechange impacts and risks than poorer nations. Poverty is directly related to vulnerability and it is a rough indicator of the ability to cope. The poor are among the most vulnerable to famine, malnutrition, and hunger. There is a situation in India in which pastoralist communities are locked into a vulnerable situation in part because of a lack of financial power that would allow them to diversify and engage in other sources of income. At a local level, the highest levels of household vulnerability in coastal area may be characterized by low household incomes in conjunction with poor housing quality and little community organization. Community with higher levels of household income are better able to manage vulnerability through the transfer of flood impacts from health to economic investment and loss. Kelly and Adger (1999) demonstrate the influence of poverty on a region’s coping capacity; poor regions tend to have less diverse and more restricted entitlements and a lack of empowerment to adapt. There is ample evidence that poorer nations and disadvantaged groups within nations are especially vulnerable to disasters.
As in Adelaide, respondents in Melbourne said that information was not reaching people in CALD communities if it was disseminated only in English. As stated by others, multi-faceted communication methods are required including written translated material, information on radio, television, newspapers, letter-box-drops, face-to-face communication and small group information sessions. The latter was seen as useful for the sessions on climatechange. Messages on mobile and landline telephones were felt to be useful in emergency situations about what to do and where to go to seek help. The valuable role that local governments play in community engagement and disaster management was highlighted in Melbourne, as in Adelaide. Likewise, the role of doctors and health care in providing information was discussed. Information via children at school was thought to be useful but it was mentioned that as children get older there can be a “culture clash” which can be a barrier to getting messages through to the family. Suggestions for reducing vulnerability to climate risks included setting up registers of people at risk who could be called during emergencies, and information sessions about climatechange for refugees and people from CALD backgrounds. Providing climate information for new arrivals at orientation was once again raised:
Hengelo is very broad and specific about the commitment to their ambitions, with examples of initiatives and experiments that are currently operational, categorized into their overarching sustainable agenda theme’s: sustainable economy, climate & energy, and sustainable living environment. While Hengelo’s commitment might be broad compared to the other municipalities, the municipal commitment is still rather small, because only the climate-‐oriented departments commit, which means the policy problem of climatechange has not been fully integrated yet within Hengelo’s overall policy (5:33). Hof van Twente’s commitment was mostly found in terms of investments with 14.500 euro for setting up ‘ECHT’ and subsidy to set up the inspiration farm. Hof van Twente also committed to citizen participation with information-‐meetings, the hof-‐panel citizen platform, collaboration with local initiators and local subsidy-‐ programs. Tubbergen’s commitment was mostly found in organizing ‘Dorpenergie’ with the province to motivate citizens to invest in sustainability, and the placement of solar panels on the municipal building’s and sport-‐accommodation’s roofs. Enschede supported the company ‘Reimarkt’ in order to stimulate sustainable households and participated in citizen information projects such as ‘Doe groen, dat scheelt.’ In order to realize sustainable public buildings, Enschede placed 1.500 solar panels and committed to sanitary facilities, green parking, and waste separation (37:14). Enschede’s evaluation note mentions several
Tasmania’s Resource Management and Planning System (RMPS) legislation provides a flexible and integrated system to facilitate the application of different land use planning tools to address climatechange issues and outcomes. The RMPS provides a comprehensive suite of statutory planning instruments that can be applied at a statewide, regional and local level, including state policies, planning directives, regional land use strategies, local government planning schemes, associated scheme amendment processes and processes for assessing projects of state and regional significance. For example, the Tasmanian Planning Commission is currently preparing a number of statewide planning provisions applying the planning directive processes in the Land Use Planning and Approvals Act 1993 (LUPA Act) for matters related to adaptation to climatechange, including bushfire,
instrumental role in underpinning the modern economy. However, policy pricing is increasing, profits diminishing and climate-related events are causing an increasingly disproportionate percentage of payouts. Two benchmark surveys by CERES (2011; 2013) show that almost 90% of US insurers interviewed fail to consider a changing climate in their portfolio management. This disturbing trend gives the authors concerns about market failure. The “black box” approach of insurers, which is traditionally trusted by businesses, may catch organisations unaware if the insurers’ mathematics no longer work and premiums increase or insurers remove themselves from locations. In fact, this issue is currently materialising in Australia (due to the confluence of recent multiple extreme events and unchecked urban growth) and may challenge mortgage viability for some locations. If the ramifications of insurance availability filter into the lending sector, shareholders may soon be asking about the viability of their bank’s mortgage portfolio. This area requires critical attention and research.
To assess changes in V and C in the future, we only consider a change of population density (based on government projections), non-green open areas, and education (based on spatial planning) because other data are not available. Based on the distribution V and C then it appear there is a change vulnerabilities and decrease the capacity of each village. This condition shows the necessary efforts to increase the capacity of the community so that people are better able to adapt.
We have outlined the opportunities and challenges for effective implementation of the climatechange refugia concept. Despite the many challenges, managers could use this approach to priori- tize areas for climateadaptation where refugial characteristics for a set of valued resources coin- cide. The concept of resource persistence in refugia under future climatechange resonates with managers because it acknowledges opportunities for managers to conserve resources within their protected area as required by enabling legislation and agency policies. Notably, the physical and ecological diversity of landscapes managed by public agencies suggest that they already contain cli- mate change refugia. Thus, this approach provides a way to prioritize land management actions in the face of limited staff and funding. Moreover, there is a great need for such a strategy, even based only on changes in climate that have already occurred. Over 80% of US national parks are already at the extreme warm end of their historical temperature distributions, indicating that ongoing and future changes could transcend temperatures that they experienced over the last century [ 79 ]. Implementing science-based management actions to maintain climatechange refugia for overlap- ping resources of value can be an effective way to allocate limited conservation capacity.
Figure 12 Project Commitments from Implementing Organisations (GIZ, KfW) by Sector
Note: Grant funds and loan funds for adaptation are shown. Significant objective projects are discounted at 50 percent. Source: Own visualisation based on OECD 2011-2017 CRS data.
BMZ and BMU set their own respective priorities, which differ according to the type of funding approach and the region. Synergy potentials can be identified at implementation level. BMU projects are mainly to be found in so-called emerging countries (cf. Figure 14). BMZ tends to be less active in emerging countries and cooperates more with developing countries in the field of adaptation (cf. Figure 13). There are also conceptual differences. BMZ pursues a broad, poverty-oriented development approach and has integrated adaptation as a cross-sectional issue into a large number of projects. BMU promotes various projects with adaptation as principal objective (CLA-2) through the ICI in the fields of ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA), risk management and national adaptation planning. Further differences exist at the level of funding guidelines, above all between the ICI ideas competition and the BMZ application procedure. On the basis of these structures, BMU initially supported smaller, temporary measures, while BMZ implements a higher level of adaptation funds per project and finances measures on a long-term basis via follow-on modules. Initiated by a reform process that launched in 2017, BMU is expanding its international commitment to climate policy and is now primarily supporting larger projects along country-specific and thematic lines. The ICI programme for the promotion of small-scale global projects is the exception. Against this background, at first there are no obvious contradictions between the ministries in terms of assessing coherence. However, the interviews highlighted the differences between the two ministries (GI 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Accordingly, the different procedures and approaches suggest interministerial synergy potential. So far there has been no systematic approach for interministerial integration of the funding areas beyond an increasing exchange of information (GI 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). The funded tools only "come into contact" at implementation level (GI 2).
conditions also bring on animal diseases. Hence, we observe in this data that farmers adapt to hot and dry climates by shifting to livestock. Note, however, that there is a limit to how dry
landscapes can become and still remain suitable for livestock.
The second analysis examines the choice of primary animal. In the data, farmers can pick any combination from the five animals, and more than one can be chosen. However, our data indicate that farmers tend to specialize. The primary animal generated 88% of total livestock income in the sample. Our first model examines the choice of a primary animal across different climates using multinomial logit. Table 2 shows the regression results for the five primary animals. The base case is a household with chickens. Most of the coefficients are very significant and the test of global significance of the model verifies that the model is highly significant. West African farmers are less likely to own beef cattle and especially dairy cattle. This may be because of problems the West African farmers have with animal diseases. Instead of cattle, West Africans are more likely to own goats and especially sheep. Large farmers in Africa specialize in dairy and especially beef cattle. These farmers may be more vulnerable to climatechange to the extent that these species are particularly climate sensitive. Electricity is associated with beef cattle, dairy cattle, and sheep and may be a proxy for market access or a commercial farm. The climate variables are mostly significant. The probability response to summer temperature is hill-shaped in the case of beef cattle and U-shaped otherwise. The response to winter temperature is U- shaped for beef cattle and sheep and hill-shaped for dairy cattle and goats.