The present study seeks to estimate the level of vulnerability of agricultural communities in northernGhana to climatechange and variability. Past vulnerability studies in northernGhana have mostly been geared toward poverty (see for example, Norton et al., 1995; Quaye, 2008; Novignon et al., 2012). Nicholls (1995) assessed vulnerability to extreme climatic events in Ghana using national aggregates and not household data. The study also focused specifically on vulnerability to sea level rises. This present study adds to the vulnerability literature in northernGhana by assessingvulnerability to extreme climatic events such as floods and droughts. There appears to be little efforts on building the resilience of smallholder farmers in northernGhana in terms of water resource management. Water is a key component of any crop based production system since extreme water stress can result in total crop failure depending on the stage of growth of field crops. This study therefore assesses the level of vulnerability of agricultural communities to water stress. The present study also assesses vulnerability to climatechange and variability in all the three regions of northernGhana unlike Van Der Geest (2004) who focused on only one region in northernGhana and also used relatively few variables to capture vulnerability. The three northern regions are compared in terms of level of vulnerability to climatechange and variability. This result is necessary in ensuring better targeting of future developmental interventions in northernGhana based on evidence.
LivelihoodVulnerabilityIndex-Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) index is an alternative method used when calculating LVI according to the IPCC definition of vulnerability. Table 3 shows the composition of seven key components of LVI-IPCC approach. The population exposure in this research is measured based on the number of floods that occurred in the last 5 years, while climatevariability is measured by the average standard deviation of monthly maximum and minimum temperature and a monthly precipitation over a period of 5 years. Adaptive capacity is measured by the demographic profile of the area (headed by women), occupation of LS and SN (the percentage of households who helped neighbours). Then, sensitivity is measured by determining the present food status, water assurance and the health status of a region. The index showed in Table 3 is also used to calculate LVI-IPCC. The calculation of LVI-IPCC is different from the main components of LVI combined. Firstly, all components will be combined by category plan in Table 3 by using the following equation:
Climatechangevulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. This study is aimed at analyzing smallholder farmers’ livelihoodvulnerability to climatechange and variability in Kembatta Tembaro zone, Southern Ethiopia using the IPCC LivelihoodVulnerabilityIndex approach. The approach estimates vulnerabilities by grouping nine major components into three categories of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, using data collected from 508 randomly selected farm households based on five livelihood zones. The result score of LivelihoodVulnerabilityIndex revealed that Coffee livelihood zone with high exposure index coupled with limited adaptive capacity made it the most vulnerable among the five livelihood zones; whereas, Ginger livelihood zone with very high adaptive capacity index and low sensitivity, coupled with medium level exposure index to climatechange has greatly contributed for its least vulnerability score. In line with the results, people-centered strengthening of adaptive capacity based on the local geographical and socio-economic profiles as well as widening opportunities for off-farm livelihood strategies is essential.
The colonial government never truly supported the development of a cash crop economy in the north. A balanced supply of agricultural extension, improved infrastructure, credit schemes and so on would have facilitated the development of a cash crop economy. This could have lead to a less skewed distribution of economic activity on a national scale. In terms of food security and vulnerability to climatevariability and change, however, I doubt whether northernGhana would have been so blessed with a cash crop economy. A heavy reliance on cash crops without adequate subsistence food production would have exposed people to the volatility of input and output markets in addition to the existing production risks. This would have made livelihood systems more vulnerable to food stress. A process of rural stratification and proletarianisation often accompanies the development of a cash crop economy. This would put increasing numbers of small farmers at risk. Moreover, most cash crops require relatively favourable climatic conditions as compared to the local staples millet and sorghum. Even in extreme drought years, farmers in the research area were still able to harvest some grains. If farmers in the research area had shifted to less drought-resistant cash crops in the course of the relatively wet 1930s, 1940, 1950s and 1960s, the impact of the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s would probably have been much more dramatic. On the other hand, in good years, high yielding cash crops have the potential to generate substantial assets and wealth. Although cash crop farmers are more exposed to risk, they may at the same time be more able to cope with these risks because of an increased buffer capacity (improved assets). 29 This is all hypothetical, however. The northern Ghanaian reality is that the colonial rulers were never willing to substantially invest in agriculture, be it subsistence or cash crop production.
severity and length of the drought period differs yearly. It is assumed that households in this area already have adopted some measures to adapt to such recurring events. Bushfires have been identified as another resultant effect of drought which normally occurs when farmers start to prepare their land for cultivation at the end of the drought season. Reactive measures are used to cope with climatic extreme events that are atypical to the region such as flood. There are additional coping measures that require the intervention of government and other non- governmental organizations. Nonetheless, the underlining fact remains that these measures only reduce the severity of the impact of climatevariability and do not or cannot eliminate it completely. A good understanding of the aftermath effect of climatechange on the livelihood of farming households, possible coping measures employed, and factors influencing the choice of a specific coping strategy to climatechange will enhance policies towards tackling the challenges that climatechange poses to farming communities.
Results in this study reveal that households employ a host of coping and adaptation strategies in responding to the threats of climatechange and variability. These strategies can be categorised into intensi ﬁ cation of agriculture, extensi ﬁ cation of agriculture, migration, changing land management practices and livelihood diversiﬁcation. The use of irrigation has been reported as one of the key climatechange adaptation strategies by households across northernGhana (see Laube et al., 2012; Dovie, 2011). Irrigation has been identi ﬁ ed by development partners and the Government of Ghana as one of the key strategies for tackling the adverse impacts of climatechange on rural resource-poor marginalised farmers (GoG, 2011). Coping measures broadly related to livelihood diversiﬁ- cation activities including, selling of ﬁrewood, wage labour, shea nut picking and selling livestock to cushion marginalised house- holds against climatic and non-climatic shocks. For instance, livestock represent a key asset and insurance mechanism for the farmers as they can easily be sold to raise ﬁnancial capital to purchase food (Hesselberg and Yaro, 2006). The use of drought resistant varieties of crops and mixed farming practices are age-old agricultural practices, but which are assuming greater prominence in households ’ quest to ﬁ nd solutions to climatechange (Yaro, 2013). Households reported using their indigenous agro-ecological knowledge (including the ﬂowering and fruiting of certain trees etc.) to indicate the onset of the rains. This helps households in preparing their farms in anticipation of the rains. Such ﬁndings match other studies suggesting that farmers across sub-Saharan Africa rely on their indigenous agro-ecological practices and knowledge to cope with climatechange and variability (see Antwi-Agyei, 2012; Nyong et al., 2007; Speranza et al., 2010). Yet, with temperatures projected to increase between roughly + 2.0 °C and + 4.5 °C by 2100 across sub-Saharan Africa (Muller, 2009), the reliability and sustainability of indigenous agro-ecological knowledge has been questioned (Naess, 2013). This raises serious concerns with grave implications for climatechange adaptation because these farmers have limited capacity to employ other adaptation measures that may require high ﬁ nancial capital outlay such as the use of drought resistant varieties of crops.
The LVI uses indicators to assess exposures, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climatechange and variability. Few methods have been developed for aggregating indicators in computing an index; key among them is the gap method and the weighting method. The gap method used in this study is based on the deviation of smallholder farmers and fisherfolk living conditions from predetermined standard living conditions without climatechange and variability (Romieu et al., 2010). The weighting method used in this study is based on effectively valuing every indicator regarding its significance in adding to making smallholder farmers and fisherfolk vulnerable to climatechange and its variability (Romieu et al., 2010; Hahn et al., 2009). A balanced, weighted approach is then utilized in computing the LVI in this study. This study uses primary data from household surveys and the only secondary data source it uses is that of rainfall and temperature in assessing the LVI. This helps to avoid expansive data gaps typically associated with using secondary data. It also affords the opportunity to get results more representative at the district to the household level. The LVI gives development organizations, policymakers, and public health practitioners an applied tool to comprehend demographic, social, and health factors contributing to climatevulnerability at the community level (Shah et al., 2013). Another essential part of the LVI is that it encourages the comprehension of the basic reasons for poverty by focusing on wide-ranging factors, at different levels, that directly or indirectly determine poor people’s access to assets of different kinds, and their livelihoods (Hahn et al., 2009).
• the development of irrigated agriculture in a number of 'schemes', and with it the expansion of commercial rice and vegetable cultivation; From the mid 1960s onwards the valleys of the major and minor tributaries of the Nasia river, as well as a number of small-scale irrigation areas (e.g. Vea) have become the main areas of rice production in NorthernGhana. During the 1960s many small water dams have been constructed; according to representatives from the Ministry of Food and Agriculture there were more than 200 or even 250 in Upper East Region alone (An IFAD- funded project counted 256 of them). An average dam can irrigate 10 hectares of land, mainly for tomatoes, onions or other vegetables, or even rice. According to a natural resource management expert in the area the Region needs at least 450 additional dams. Most of the existing small dams silted up during the 1970s and '80s. Recently a start has been made to rehabilitate these dams and encourage farmers to use them for dry-season cultivation. In 1999 44 of these dams had been rehabilitated and their use as areas of intensive cultivation of rice and horticultural produce has indeed increased considerably. People have come to see their importance and much more effort is put in maintaining and preserving the dams;
other variables or processes such as increase of evaporation, reduction of natural stream flows and water availability, reduction of water storage volumes at reservoirs, and reduction on hydropower generation. Also, in other studies performed by IDEAM (2000) and Bernal (2000), it was also found that because of climatechange, for different time periods and different scenarios, higher temperatures and less rainfall are expected in most of the hydrologic regions in which Colombia is divided. These projected conditions are highly sensitive because of the dependency that Colombia has on hydropower generation for satisfying the increasing demand of energy throughout the country, and the impact that hydropower generation shortages could have on the national economy.
Coastal environments are under increasing pressure from both rapid anthropogenic development and predicted consequences of climatechange, such as sea level rise, coastal erosion and extreme weather events. About 23% of the world’s population live within 100 km of the coast and about 10% live in extremely low-lying areas (<10 m above mean sea level) (Small and Nicholls, 2003). Many geophysical processes like coastal erosion, storm surges, coastal flooding, tsunamis and rise in sea level pose hazards to these people. The intensity of each of these processes is likely to increase under changing scenarios of global climate. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climatechange and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. IPCC (2007) defines vulnerability as ‘the degree to which a system is susceptible to and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climatechange, including climatevariability and extremes. Vulnerability is conceptualised in different ways across different disciplines due to the fact that the term “vulnerability” has been used in different policy contexts, referring to different systems
A growing body of evidence suggests that changes in global temperature may have drastic and long- lasting impacts on human health. Even more, these consequences may vary widely across different geographic areas. We explore the regional differences in the effects of exposure to high temperature variability – an important consequence of climatechange – on a particularly vulnerable demographic group: infants. We use the case of Peru, a large and geographically diverse developing country, as a setting to showcase the potential scale of these differences. We bring together monthly, high resolution data on air temperatures with measures of physical health for children born between 1985 and 2000. We find that exposure to temperatures above the historical local mean during pregnancy negatively affects health at birth. Even more salient, the negative effects persist over time, impairing the physical growth of children. We then combine our results with forecasted temperatures to construct a regional index for child vulnerability to future temperature variability. This indicator shows that country-level measures of the potential impact of climatechange may hide important heterogeneities across geography. In fact, we predict that while most regions will face a reduction of up to 0.1 standard deviations in our aggregate measure of child health by 2030, this impact could be up to three times as large in the most affected areas. Our methodology can be easily replicated in other countries to identify the most vulnerable populations. This information could improve the geographical allocation of resources and contribute to the design of more effective strategies aimed at preventing or mitigating the consequences of climatechange.
Fifty of the reviewed articles expressed concern that vulnerability research is disempowering and paints affected peoples as passive victims. First documented in the early 2000s (Barnett and Adger 2003), there was spike in articles presenting this concern in 2013 and 2016. This critique centers on the tendency in vulnerability research to focus on the negative impacts of climatechange (Bene et al. 2016, 2014; Bennett et al. 2016). The labeling of populations or regions as Bvulnerable^ by external actors has also been problematized (Barnett and Adger 2003). In the context of research with Indigenous peoples, it has been noted that the vulnerability label may hinder efforts to gain greater autonomy by focusing on the negative, can result in victimization, and promotes external interventions that reflect non-Indigenous worldviews and notions of progress (Bates 2007; Cameron 2012; Haalboom and Natcher 2012; Hall and Sanders 2015). A focus on the harmful impacts of climatechange is a characteristic of many of the vulnerability articles reviewed, but other arguments on the passive/negative framing have less support. In vernacular usage, B vulnerability ^ captures the condition of being vulnerable and is associated with harm and susceptibility. In scientific usage, vulnerability is an approach for understanding the dynamics and drivers of change, central to which is a focus on concepts such as entitlements, coping, and adaptive capacity (Adger 1999b; Sen 1981; Turner et al. 2003). Vulnerability approaches thus do not a priori denote a negative focus but rather seek to understand the social and ecological conditions and processes that shape risk. This distinction is rarely made in studies critiquing vulnerability terminology, where vulnerability research is often conflated with the labeling of populations or regions as being Bvulnerable.^ Ribot (2011) further challenges concerns over terminology, acknowledging that Bwords matter^ but arguing that while people are not passive in the face of change, many people are in fact victims of circumstance, and vulnerability captures the underlying drivers of exclusion, marginalization, disempowerment, and inequality (Cannon and Muller-Mahn 2010; Gronlund 2014; Leach and Scoones 2013; Luna 2014; Wolf 2015). 3.6 Concern #6: vulnerability research has had limited influence on decision-making
In the event of climatechange and variability impacts as well as changes in socio economic conditions, farming communities at individual level employ adjustments or adaptations to manage associated impacts. These practices also aim at taking advantage of new opportunities. These adjustments can reduce the unforeseen damage resulting from extreme weather risks and are important in Africa where there is higher vulnerability coupled with lower adaptive capacity (Hassan & Nhemachena, 2008). These adaptations assist small holder households achieve their food, livelihood and income security in the face of climate risks and non-climatic drivers such as market fluctuations (Kandlikar & Risbey, 2000). Adger et al., (2003) in their review outline that many adaptation efforts in developing countries will be informed by past experiences and will be further autonomous and facilitated by their own social capital and resource base.
C. Dependence on environmental triggers that are likely to be disrupted by climatechange. Many species rely on environmental triggers or cues to initiate life stages (e.g. migration, breeding, egg laying, seed germination, hibernation and spring emergence). While cues such as day length and lunar cycles will be unaffected by climatechange, those driven by climate and season may alter in both their timing and magnitude, leading to asynchrony and uncoupling with environmental factors (Thackeray et al., 2016) (e.g. mismatches between advancing spring food availability peaks and hatching dates (Both et al., 2006)). Climatechange sensitivity is likely to be compounded when different sexes or life stages rely on different cues, as well as by local adaptation of species to gradients in environmental triggers (e.g. Bennie et al., 2010).
The second approach is to use analogues from past abrupt climatechange events. There is a large literature on changes in the physical environment following past abrupt changes, including for example land cover (e.g. Van Geel et al., 1996; Tinner & Lotter, 2001) and fluvial systems (e.g. van Huissteden & Kasse, 2001). There is also an increasingly large literature on the effect of past abrupt climate changes on previous civilisations and societies. In a very early study, Parry (1974) showed how agricultural patterns in southern Scotland were affected by the Little Ice Age, and more recent studies have examined changes in other parts of the world associated with abrupt climate shifts, such as rapid cooling or changes in ENSO patterns (e.g. van Geel et al., 1996; Berglund, 2003; Sandweiss et al., 2001; Fagan, 2004, Xoplaki et al., 2001). However, whilst there is some evidence that abrupt climate shifts have led to collapses of some civilisations and economies, the use of such analogues to assess impacts in the future is problematic. The impacts of a given change in climate (or indeed hazard event) depend very much on the characteristics and dynamics of the economy and society being impacted, including aspects such as distribution of income, governance and equity. It may be extremely difficult to separate out all the interacting causes of an identified impact (Messerli et al., 2000).
It is revealed that the main climatic hazards that damage the people’s livelihood and put them in a difficult situation to meet the basic needs of the family members are mainly increase of climatechange induced disasters. Seasonality (monsoon, dry season, cyclone season) also increased the vulnerability of extreme poor people by destroying their assets reducing their work opportunities, customer base and income. After the overall discussion, the study presents four major findings: 1) the climate has been changing over the last few decades in the Char Montaj; 2) due to climatechange, livelihood patterns of that are also changing; 3) Sea level rise in Bay of Bengal and adjacent river (Bura Gauranga River) has caused severe environmental problems in the study area and increased salinity levels over the last few decades that caused severe reduction of agricultural crops in the study area; 4) Against climatechange, the communities livelihood adaptation capacity for achieving sustainable livelihood are deficient, which further increase more vulnerability. It is also explored that these communities have very little knowledge on climatechange and its future impacts. Most of them even do not know where they would move if their land ever submerge due to sea level rise. From the discussion it is also evident that the increase cyclone and cyclonic storm surge, monsoon flood has caused severe livelihood damage and migration of the peoples. Because of high tide and water logging peoples in the study area almost every year lost their productive lands. Therefore, taking this study as a model, a sector wise vulnerability map can be produced for the coastal areas of Bangladesh. This will eventually assist to produce a well-organized strategic plan enabling more efficient resource distribution among the impacted areas which would fulfill their actual need.
A World Bank report  which is a flagship product of the Africa Water Re- sources Management Initiative (AWRMI) prepared with the support of the Ke- nya Country Team, Mainstreaming Fund for the Environment, the Bank Neth- erlands Water Partnership Program, World Bank Institute and Environment Department, and SIDA—is a critical step in the World Bank’s policy dialogue on water resources management reforms and investment planning that was at the time being promoted by the Government of Kenya through the Ministry of Wa- ter and Irrigation. The report represents a pioneering attempt by the AWRMI to focus on the economic implications of water resource management in Kenya (and indeed in Africa), looking specifically at two of the most important water-related issues that make the economy and people of Kenya highly vulnerable—the effects of climatevariability and the steady degradation of the nation’s water resources. In both areas, the report finds significant economic impacts on water resources by both drought and floods—a very serious drag on the country’s economic perfor- mance.
Water security will be threatened by two impacts – saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers and changing precipitation patterns. SLR causes saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers. This will be exacerbated by increased erosion and storm surge under SLR (Bruun, 1962; Mueller & Meindl, 2017). Further, a mean precipitation decrease is projected for mid- latitude subtropical dry regions, showing a significant decrease by mid- and end of century (IPCC, 2013). Coastal tourism relies on climate as a resource, demonstrated by tourism flows from cooler regions to warmer regions, including the Caribbean (Rutty & Scott, 2015). The CTO is concerned that warmer summers in the Caribbean may affect seasonal demand – as previously discussed, global average surface temperatures may rise up to 5.7°C by the end of the century (Hayhoe et al, 2017). Finally, the CTO identified coral bleaching as a concern. While most of the focus on global warming has focused on temperatures over land, approximately 93% of excess heat from anthropogenic climatechange since the 1970s has been absorbed by the oceans (Jewett & Romanou, 2017). In the Caribbean, a sea surface temperature (SST) warming of 1.5±0.4°C under RCP 4.5 by 2080, and 2.6±0.3°C under RCP 8.5 is projected by 2080, relative to a 1976- 2005 baseline (Jewett & Romanou, 2017). Rising SSTs can lead to coral bleaching and mortality (Burke & Maidens, 2004), in addition to the intensification of hurricanes (Kossin et al, 2017).
Our preliminary analyses show that provinces in South Africa demonstrate a vast diversity in terms of environmental and socio-economic conditions (see Appendix 4, Table A.3 to Table A.6). The coastal provinces of KwaZulu Natal, the Eastern Cape and the Western Cape show the highest frequency of extreme events (droughts/floods) over the last century. The highest incremental increase in temperature by 2050 is found in the desert region of the Northern Cape and the steppe arid regions of Free State and Mpumalanga, whereas changes in rainfall are predicted to be greatest in the Gauteng and North West provinces. Concerning the sensitivity indicators, 65 percent of the crop area in the Northern Cape (the desert region) is irrigated. The regions showing the highest levels of soil and veld degradation are the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu Natal and Limpopo. The Western Cape and Limpopo are the most diversified regions; in these areas, 5 or 6 different types of crops occupy around 70 percent of the crop land. The most populated rural areas are the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu Natal, Mpumalanga and North West, where small farmers comprise more than 70 percent of the farming population. The most developed provinces are Gauteng and the Western Cape, which have infrastructure index scores of 2.95 and 2.92, respectively. They also have the highest literacy rates and lower unemployment rates. In contrast, the Eastern Cape and Limpopo have the highest share of agricultural GDP, the lowest average value of farm assets, the lowest literacy rate, and the highest unemployment rate.