The PESETA III project also brings together different types of models in order to analyse the impacts of climatechange in different parts of Europe. It builds on PESETA2, with new, more transparent climate scenarios (the RCP8.5 scenario was used in this study). We focus in this report on the impacts of climatechange on the energy sector. These impacts range from changes in the availability of water, which can cause decreased thermal production efficiency or changes in hydro production, to risks for the infrastructure, for example implied by (infra-annual) extreme events, or changes of demand patterns. Studying these impacts is crucial for evaluating and designing the adequate mitigation and adaptation policies in order to minimize the negative impacts of climatechange. Ciscar and Dowling (2012) looked at how impactassessment models represent these impacts and show that more work is needed in this area. The modelling tool available (POLES model, see Annex A) allows evaluating impacts on yearly energydemand. Indeed, it deals with the impacts of temperature changes on the energydemand for residentialheating and cooling. Other impacts are not studied here since the available data and modelling capabilities are not adequate.
reason for this level of energy consumption is due to the rapid expansion of urbanization, entailing high intensity of building construction activities and energy usage for heating and cooling. The Yangtze River Delta area is located in the ‘Hot Summer Cold Winter’ zone of China [2 –4] (Figure 1); therefore, in order to maintain occupant comfort in buildings, heating is required in winter and cooling in summer. High humidity levels mean that cooling with simple natural ventilation is almost impossible; so, mechanical means are required. Effects of climatechange will exacerbate the situation, with increasing cooling load in the summer, as well as more occurrences of ex- tremely cold and hot spells. The cities of Shanghai and Ningbo have also been identified in the Top 20 most vulnerable port cities in the world in the 2070s in terms of population expos- ure and economic assets .
Various cooling and heating strategies were evaluated to provide comfort within buildings for two different periods based on three cli- mate change scenarios. According to the data of both observational and simulated periods, it was found that Abadan, Bushehr, Mashhad and Ramsar stations are mainly influenced by the passive solar heating strategy (Z7). Although most strategies for these stations belonged to Z7, their frequency was projected to decrease for future decades. At Ardebil station, the most important energy supply instruction for the observational period was the supply of active heating by the Z1 bio- climatic architectural recommendation or conventional heating. On the other hand, all three RCP scenarios showed that the use of the Z7 bioclimatic solution or passive solar heating would be the most effective in future decades. At Isfahan and Firoozkooh stations, although the use of passive solar heating and humidification recommendations ac- counted for the maximum frequency of data during the observational period, the passive solar heating strategy was introduced as the most important bioclimatic strategy for future decades. In Hamadan, the most important factor for providing indoor comfort was the use of the Z1 bioclimatic recommendation or conventional heating, which was the same for the future. The findings at Mashhad and Ramsar stations in- dicated that for both observational and future periods, the maximum of occurrences were related to passive solar heating. The percentage of frequencies for these two zones was expected to decrease in the future. The findings of this study showed that the need for heating in Iranian households is decreasing for all stations, while the need for cooling strategies will increase in future decades. Out study validated and re-formulated a set of bioclimatic design strategies that will need to implement in existing and new residential buildings in Iran. The study provides novel and reliable information for city planners, architects, builders, contractors, and knowledgeable homeowners to achieve thermal comfort without excess space conditioning costs. Table 5 can be used by designers to quantify the influence of climatechange on the 16
A recent research was conducted by Radhi to assess the potential impact of climatechange on residential buildings in the United Arab Emirates. The study found that the energydemand for cooling buildings would increase at a rate of 23.5% when the temperature increased in Al-Ain city by 5.9°C. Wong et al. investigated future trends of cooling load in the residential sector in subtropical Hong Kong under dynamic weather scenarios in the 21st century. The results of the study show that the percentage increase for the last 30 years of the 21st century is predicted to be 21.6%. Another study in Australia was conducted to evaluate the climatechangeimpact on residential building's heating and coolingenergy requirements. It was found that the predicted increase in the total heating and coolingenergy consumption was up to 120% and 530% if the global temperature increases 2°C to 5°C respectively.
Our climate plays a critical role in many aspects of energy production, delivery, and demand. Seasonal fluctuations from hot summers to cold winters create significant needs for both space heating and cooling, while acute temperature swings (heat waves and cold snaps) can lead to short-term spikes in demand. Daytime and nighttime temperatures influence energydemand as well as power plant efficiency and transmission line capacity. Supplies of coal, oil, and natural gas are also sensitive to climate- related disruptions in transport; for instance, water levels changed by droughts and floods can stall barge traffic, and flooding can damage railroad lines and pipelines.
The slab sea ice was held fixed in the simulations used to build the version of the emulator used here, which predates the configuration described in ( Holden et al. , 2013 ). Warming pat- terns in response to RCP6.0 are illustrated in Figure 2 . The emulator performs generally very well in capturing the spatial variability and magnitude of warming simulated by more complex models, but the neglect of the sea ice feedback in this configuration results in understated DJF (December-January-February) warming in the Arctic. Although caution will be required, this error dominantly aﬀects temperatures in sparsely populated high-northern latitudes and so may not be problematic for large-scale human impact studies. Emulated south-east Asian JJA (June-July-August) temperatures suggest a cooling of up to 1.5K under RCP6.0. This arises due to a strengthening of the South-east Asian monsoon in PLASIM-ENTS that is associated with decreased incoming shortwave radiation (increased cloud cover) and increased evaporative cooling. Given the neglect of aerosol forcing in PLASIM-ENTS, this JJA cooling in south-east Asia should not be regarded as robust; aerosols are an important forcing of the south-east Asian monsoon through a range of likely competing eﬀects (- see e.g. ( Ganguly et al. , 2012 ).
Heating degree day (HDD) and cooling degree day (CDD) are quantitative indices being designed to reflect the demand for energy requirements to heat or cool a home, business or other issues. These indices are derived from daily air temperature observations. Generally, a degree-day fixes the value that expresses the adding temperature of the environment. It gives the value of quantity and duration when the air temperature becomes lower or higher than a determined threshold value, which is known as the basic temperature (Hitchen, 1981, Martinaitis, 1998, McMaster and Wilhelm, 1987). In order to estimate heating costs, this value is given as the total deficit of outdoor air temperature in relation to the basic temperature.
At low levels of economic development, energy service consumption tended to be quite responsive to per capita income changes; at mid-levels, consumption tended to be very responsive to changes in income per capita; and, at high levels, consumption was less responsive to income changes. Just to provide a concrete example, if China were to follow a similar pattern of demand for energy services (e.g., space and water heating, cooling, cooking, transport, lighting and communication) as it develops as the United Kingdom did historically, its income elasticities would now be starting to decline – a mildly positive message for global carbon dioxide emissions. However, its income elasticities would not fall below unity (i.e., a 10% increase in income would not lead to a less than 10% increase in consumption) for many decades into the future – a rather pessimistic message for global carbon dioxide emissions. Although the inverse U-shaped trend in income elasticities is expected to hold for present-day developing economies, there might be reasons to anticipate that their trends will peak earlier and be less pronounced than the United Kingdom historically. This new understanding of how long run trends in income and price elasticities changed with economic development will be useful for improving projections of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in both industrialised and developing economies, such as those produced by the IEA and the IPCC.
yet due to cost and technical reasons, and hence are not discussed. The LPG required to substitute for fuelwood in a LCD scenario will be 750 000–1.9 million tonnes by 2012–2015; and 950 000–2.8 million tonnes by 2020 (Ghana Energy Commission 2006). This additional LPG demand is likely to put a lot of pressure on the crude oil refining capacity of the country, unless the LPG shortfall is imported. This can create an opportunity to increase the refinery capacity of the country and boost gas cylinder manufacturing in the country. Introducing LPG to rural users will, however, require an efficient distribution network and back-up support to control potential gas accidents associated with it and occasional shortages due to distances from retailing centers. Mobile LPG retailers exist but have higher premium than stationary retailers. For rural areas (where the effect may be greatest), it will be a significant extra payment to make, unless rural supplies are targeted and subsidised. The switch from fuelwood use to LPG for residential cooking and heating has probably been the boldest step taken so far to mitigate climatechange in the energy sector of Ghana. Such a policy had the capacity to reduce deforestation and forest degradation. It also led to the creative and increased use of LPG as fuel in the road sector. Many commercial drivers rapidly converted their gasoline-based commercial passenger vehicles to LPG, realising it was more cost effective. However, the adoption of LPG for commercial vehicle use has of late created some shortages for household users and has tended to defeat the purpose of promoting LPG use. Net benefit comparisons are made for the switch from fuelwood to LPG as a demonstration of the net welfare effect of an energy poverty-based LCD initiative in Ghana, in the next section.
Globally buildings are responsible for approximately 40% of the total world annual energy consumption. Most of this energy is for the provision of lighting, heating, cooling and air conditioning. An increase in awareness of the environmental impact of CO2, NOx and CFCs emissions triggered a renewed interest in environmentally friendly cooling and heating technologies. Under the 1997 Montreal Protocol, governments agreed to phase out chemicals used as refrigerants that have the potential to destroy stratospheric ozone. It was therefore considered desirable to reduce energy consumption in order to decrease the rate of depletion of world energy reserves as well as the pollution to the environment. One way of reducing building energy consumption is to design buildings, which are more efficient in their use of energy for heating, lighting, cooling and ventilation. Passive measures, particularly natural or hybrid ventilation rather than air-conditioning, can dramatically reduce primary energy consumption. Therefore, promoting innovative renewable energy applications including the ground source energy may contribute to preservation of the ecosystem by reducing emissions at local and global levels. This will also contribute to the amelioration of environmental conditions by replacing conventional fuels with renewable energies that produce no air pollution or the greenhouse gases (GHGs). An approach is needed to integrate renewable energies in a way to achieve high building performance standards. However, because renewable energy sources are stochastic and geographically diffuse, their ability to match demand is determined by the adoption of one of the following two approaches: the utilisation of a capture area greater than that occupied by the community to be supplied, or the reduction of the community‘s energy demands to a level commensurate with the locally available renewable resources. Ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems (also referred to as geothermal heat pump systems, earth-energy systems and GeoExchange systems) have received considerable attention in recent decades as an alternative energy source for residential and commercial space heating and cooling applications. The GSHP applications are one of three categories of geothermal energy resources as defined by ASHRAE and include high-temperature (>150°C) for electric power production, intermediate temperature (<150°C) for direct-use applications and GSHP applications (generally (<32°C). The GSHP applications are distinguished from the others by the fact that they operate at relatively low temperatures.
based schemes because compliance across the different states legislations is costly. However the National Framework for Energy Efficiency (NFEE 2007) instituted by the Ministerial Council on Energy (MCE) claims significant progress. But in a submission to the NFEE (2007) consultation paper for stage 2, the National Generators Forum (NGF 2007) comments on the progress since stage 1 of the NFEE “Progress in improving the efficiency of residential and commercial buildings can best be described as slow and uncoordinated, with a confusion of very mixed requirements at the various state levels. … Activities in areas of trade and professional training and accreditation, finance sector and government have been largely invisible from a public perspective”. The NGF (2007) states that the proposals for stage 2 are modest and lack coordination and national consistency. So, there is disagreement between the MCE and participants in the NEM over coordination in the NEM. Foster et al. (2012 sec. 2.5.6) further discusses coordination problems induced by institutional fragmentation as a cause of maladaption to climatechange.
Much of these environmental problems are due to the energy that fuel buildings and activities within them [1 –3] . More con- cretely, in 2010 the building sector used approximately 115 EJ globally, accounting for 32% of global ﬁnal energydemand (24% for residential and 8% for commercial)  and 30% of energy-related CO 2 emissions  . The building sector is also responsible for approximately two-thirds of halocarbon and approximately 25 –33% of black carbon emissions  . Moreover, the building sector used 23% of the global primary energy and 30% of the global electricity. Literature documents (such as Levine et al.  and the IEA  ) that the energy consumption in buildings is growing and is expected to grow dynamically due to many reasons. However, there is limited consistent literature on understanding how this energy use is developing worldwide on a regional basis, and how different trends that in ﬂuence energy use in buildings develop both on a historical basis as well as in the future. The authors of this paper have found a major literature gap in this area when working on assessing the literature for the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Understanding underlying trends in drivers and past energy use is crucial for future projections, modeling activities, policy design aimed at addressing environmental and social problems related to energy use in buildings, etc.
China is currently going through a phase of rapid mass urbanisation, and it is important to investigate how the growing built environment will cope with climatechange, to see how the energy consumption of buildings in China will be af- fected. This is especially important for the fast-growing cities in the north, and around the east and south coasts. This paper aims to study the effects of future climatechange on the energy consumption of buildings in the three main cli- mate regions of China, namely the “Cold” region in the north, which includes Beijing; the “Hot Summer Cold Winter” region in the east, which includes cities such as Shanghai and Ningbo; and the “Hot Summer Mild Winter” region in the south, which includes Guangzhou. Using data from the climate model, HadCM3, Test Reference Years are generated for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, for various IPCC future scenarios. These are then used to access the energy perform- ance of typical existing buildings, and also the effects of retrofitting them to the standard of the current building codes. It was found that although there are reductions in energy consumption for heating and cooling with retrofitting existing residential buildings to the current standard, the actual effects are very small compared with the extra energy consump- tion that comes as a result of future climatechange. This is especially true for Guangzhou, which currently have very little heating load, so there is little benefit of the reduction in heatingdemand from climatechange. The effects of retro- fitting in Beijing are also limited, and only in Ningbo was the effect of retrofitting able to nullify the effects of climatechange up to 2020s. More improvements in building standards in all three regions are required to significantly reduce the effects of future climatechange, especially to beyond 2020s.
Abstract: This article analyzes the sensitivity of electricity demand by sector to temperature, in the context of climatechange. The paper outlines a methodology to incorporate climate variables into energy decision making. This methodology is based on the evolution of the thermal distance on cold and warm days with respect to established thresholds (Heating Degree Days and Cooling Degree Days) and its influence on demand. This approach has been tested in the Basque Country. Results show that the residential sector is the most sensitive to these changes, and future demand is projected according to multiple climatechange scenarios. Due to the greater statistical significance of temperature differences on cold days, and the current limited use of air conditioning, it is estimated that residentialdemand could fall by as much as 4%, which could translate to nearly 20 million euros in annual savings and emission reductions of around 30,000 t. of CO2 per year.
Brazil’s growing middle class, electrification rates, and urbanization has led to a significant uptick in residential appliance adoption. Air conditioner usage, increasingly relevant to both average and system peak demand, will have strong environmental and economic impacts to the country as a whole. With nearly every Brazilian household connected to the centralized electricity grid, increasing temperatures, higher incomes, and vulnerability from reduced energy supply; residentialcoolingdemand will have a large impact on Brazilian electricity grid reliability and whether or not the country will be able to meet both environmental and efficiency goals. Though Brazil’s air conditioner impacts have been referenced anecdotally, most detailed studies of coolingdemand are focused on countries such as the U.S. This study increases temporal resolution to hourly grid impacts as well as improving spatial granularity to municipality-level climate and air conditioner adoption predictions. The paper is split into two parts with separate models. The first outlines a econometric model that utilizes census data (municipality urbanization, household density, household income) and downscaled global climate model results (humidity, temperature) to project each municipality’s
Pessimistic (low demand growth) world: governments are ineffective in reducing the risks of climatechange through domestic and international policy, leading to higher levels of damages from climatechange and lower investments in adaptation and GHG mitigation; rapidly rising risk levels are not well anticipated by the (re)insurance industry causing sudden price increases, insolvencies and withdrawals from some markets; insurance becomes unaffordable or unavailable in some high risk areas, with negative impacts on the resilience of local people and economic activity; the resulting public and political discontent results in lower trust in insurance and a tougher regulatory environment for private (re)insurers, including price regulation and a shift toward public insurance in some markets; weaker global climate policies lead to stagnation of the new markets for renewables insurance and other products linked with GHG mitigation and adaptation (but more rapid growth of traditional energy business lines in the BRICS); towards 2030s, a lack of global action to curb the impacts of climatechange leads to growing economic instabilities, including high inflation and lower rates of growth, which negatively impacts the insurance market.
An average temperature increase of 0.93 °C in 2050 is expected to decrease gas and oil products household demand in all regions; electricity demandchange is ambiguous, depending on the trade off between heating and cooling needs. The net effect is an increase in electricity demand in the warmer regions: Japan (JPN), China and India (CHIND), the rest of the world (ROW), and in the energy exporting countries (EEx). In the cold or mixed countries instead the heating effect prevails, leading to a reduction in electricity demand. The lower demand for gas and oil products would generate a drop in world prices of these energy goods. Electricity prices instead can go in both direction, with different reallocations effects between different energy sources and countries. Also, changes in household energy expenditure would affect other goods and services spending. Income levels and prices of primary resources would be affected as well. Next section illustrates how a computable general equilibrium model can be used to assess these systemic effects.
the risks of climatechange through domestic and international policy, leading to higher levels of damages from climatechange and lower investments in adaptation and GHG mitigation; rapidly rising risk levels are not well anticipated by the (re)insurance industry causing sudden price increases, insolvencies and withdrawals from some markets; insurance becomes unaffordable or unavailable in some high risk areas, with negative impacts on the resilience of local people and economic activity; the resulting public and political discontent results in lower trust in insurance and a tougher regulatory environment for private (re)insurers, including price regulation and a shift toward public insurance in some markets; weaker global climate policies lead to stagnation of the new markets for renewables insurance and other products linked with GHG mitigation and adaptation (but more rapid growth of traditional energy business lines in the BRICS); towards 2030s, a lack of global action to curb the impacts of climatechange leads to growing economic instabilities, including high inflation and lower rates of growth, which negatively impacts the insurance market.
This paper presents an assessment of the impact on electricity prices produced by the decarbonisation of heating and energy efficiency in the residential sector. A linear programming problem is used to find the optimal planning and operation of electric heating and residential loads, following a price-maker approach. Then, the potential cost changes for residential consumers and the impacts on electricity prices in the wholesale day-ahead market are estimated considering different residential electric heating profiles and energy conservation scenarios. Following an explanation of the method, a discussion of results is presented, considering how the electrification of heatingchange the energy price curves and the policy implications of these findings. In addition, it is discussed how the optimal operation of heating systems with energy conservation technologies and thermal storage could mitigate the cost increase of these changes on the energy system.