Few studies have examined changingsnowseasonality in Central Asia. Here, we analyzed changes in the seasonality of snow cover across Kyrgyzstan (KGZ) over 14 years from 2002/03–2015/16 using the most recent version (v006) of MODIS Terra and Aqua 8 day snow cover composites
(MOD10A2/MYD10A2). We focused on three metrics of snowseasonality—first date of snow, last date of snow, and duration of snow season—and used nonparametric trends tests to assess the significance and direction of trends. We evaluated trends at three administration scales and across elevation. We used two techniques to assure that our identification of significant trends was not resulting from random spatial variation. First, we report only significant trends (positive or negative) that are at least twice as prevalent as the converse trends. Second, we use a two-stage analysis at the national scale to identify asymmetric directional changes in snowseasonality. Results show that more territory has been experiencing earlier onset of snow than earlier snowmelt, and roughly equivalent areas have been experiencing longer and shorter duration of snow seasons in the past 14 years. The changes are not uniform across KGZ, with significant shifts toward earlier snow arrival in western and central KGZ and significant shifts toward earlier snowmelt in eastern KGZ. The duration of the snow season has significantly shortened in western and eastern KGZ and significantly lengthened in northern and southwestern KGZ. Duration is significantly longer where the snow onset was
Studies have showed that the working conditions of shift workers increase energetic “cost” and func- tional “value” in the coming period of recovery and rest. On high-altitude shifts, even workers with 3 to 6 years of experience do not show stabilization and coordination in reactions of elements in the body gas transportation system. 22 A long period of intermittent shift work in the mountains does not lead to a sustainable, balanced status in the functional systems of the body if workloads are excessive. Shift work in high altitudes changes the body’s reactivity, creating a pattern that reduces productivity, impairs performance, enhances response to industrial and environmental stimuli, and has signiﬁcant effects on the health of workers in these circumstances. There- fore, the incidence of health problems among shift workers in mining is 1.5 to 2 times higher compared with miners of the stationary work. Morbidity depends on the length of workers’ alpine working experience. The proportion of days of disability for workers of min- ing enterprises located more than 3000 m above sea level increases to 54%, which indicates the severity of the disease in the highlands. Occupational factors of the underground environment cause the development of dust-related disease in miners who have worked for 16 to 18.5 years, vibration-related disease in those who have worked 15 to 20 years in mines located at 3000 m above sea level, and both diseases in miners with 10 to 15 years of service at heights of more than 3500 m above sea level.
and thermal time to peak (TTP), in the subsequent growing season. Then we evaluated the role of terrain features in shaping the relationships between snow cover and pasture phenology using exact multinomial tests for equivalence. Results revealed a positive relationship between snow covered dates (SCD) and PH occurred in over 1,664 km 2 at p <0.01 and 5,793 km 2 at p<0.05, which account for more than 8% of 68,881 km 2 of pasturelands analyzed in Kyrgyzstan. Also, more negative than positive correlations were found between snow cover onset and PH, and more positive correlations were observed between snowmelt timing and PH. Thus, a longer snow season can positively influence PH. Significant negative correlations between TTP and SCD appeared in 1,840 km 2 at p<0.01 and 6,208 km 2 at p <0.05, and a comparable but smaller area showed negative correlations between TTP and snowmelt date (1,538 km 2 at p<0.01 and 5,188 km 2 at p <0.05). Furthermore, terrain had a stronger influence on the timing of snowmelt than on the number of snow covered dates, with slope being more important than aspect, and the strongest effect appearing from the interaction of aspect with steeper slopes. In this study, we characterized the snow-phenology interactions in highland pastures and revealed strong dependencies of pasture phenology on timing of snowmelt and snow onset and snow cover duration and. Under changing climatic conditions toward earlier spring warming, decreased duration of snow cover may lead to lower pasture productivity threatening the sustainability of montane agropastoralism.
Energy has a special place in Kyrgyzstan as a main component industrial and agricultural production, and an integral part of citizens’ life support systems (lighting and cooking, potable water supply, heating and health care) as well as education, transport and telecommunications. Given that the system of centralized energy supply covers almost 99% of the population in the Kyrgyz Republic, we can say that the energy sector of Kyrgyzstan has be- come the platform of civilized way of citizens’ life. Additionally, the end price that consumers pay for goods (and services) de- pends on the amount of electricity expended in their production, because the cost of electricity is part of the production costs. The lack of energy, regardless of the reasons (shortage, failure in the power system) immediately and negatively extends to all aspects of production, and social and domestic relations. Produc- tion shuts down, production costs of enterprises increase, operat- ing conditions of the systems of housing and communal services, transport, health, communications, education and others suffer. The discomfort due to prolonged or systematic lack of household energy also causes social tensions in society.
The Tulip Revolution of 2005, which ousted President Akayev and his gov- ernment, was the ﬁrst political success story of new media in Kyrgyzstan, giving a strong boost to the development of new media in the country. As the confrontation between the Akayev regime and the opposition escalated in March 2005, the government started to block access to various websites, both local and foreign, that covered the activities of opposition parties or that were seen as promoting discontent. It was at this moment that Elena Skochilo, a journalist and blogger from Bishkek, began to cover the events in Bishkek with up-to-date and reliable information on her LiveJournal-based blog based at, although social media did not play a role in the events them- selves. 15 On 24 March, opposition parties organized mass rallies in Bishkek that ended with the White House (the Kyrgyz’s centre of government) being stormed, Akayev’s ﬂight from the country and the subsequent election of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev.
about these issues today then many of our current conservation efforts might be seen as pointless in the future.
The study presented here wants to contribute to the conservational discourse surrounding different perceptions of human-environment-relations as well as the debate between utilization of resources and protection of pristine nature for future generations. In order to investigate these contradictory intentions in more detail, a case study of the inhabited forest reserve of Dashman, located in the famous ‘wild’ walnut-fruit forest of southern Kyrgyzstan, will be analysed. This area, which will be outlined in more detail further below entails both the ‘natural’ forest and a small settlement which is inhabited during the summer months. This case is a good example for the dichotomy between the intention to establish a natural reserve and the currently existing usage of the land and its products by local inhabitants for their everyday needs. In order to analyse this deep-rooted disagreement in regard of the assumed need to protect nature from anthropogenic influences it is seen as highly important to learn how different stakeholders currently use the assets in this area. Therefore the overall research question of this study is to examine how and to what extent the different stakeholders conserve and utilize natural resources in the semi-permanent forest settlement of Dashman and the surrounding woodlands. To describe the analytical framework behind this approach, the here presented paper will first describe the theoretical concept of historical ecology in order to define the understanding of human-environment relations for this study. This section is followed by an empirical investigation, which forms the main part of this study: the case study will be examined through three dimensions, namely the social economy, the institutional regulations and the conservation discourse. The final section gives an outlook into possible future handling of the here proposed redefined understanding of the nexus between nature and culture.
precipitation amount from the summer to the winter season, as predicted by several modelling studies that have been carried out for the region of Bavaria (MPI, 2010; KLIWA, 2007; BayFORKLIM, 1996). Thereby, a decrease of 10% in summer and an increase of 10% in winter is assumed up to the year 2055 (scenario 2). The results of both scenario runs are illustrated in comparison to the simulation results achieved for 2004/2005 in Fig. 5. As the figure exhibits, the increase in temperature alone as defined for scenario 1 remarkably reduces the duration of the snow covered season by enhanced melt intensity in spring. Although the shape of the curve is still very similar to the one achieved for present climate conditions, the simulated snow water equivalent is almost permanently less in this scenario run. As a result of the reduced storage of water in the snowpack, the annual total amount of snow melt is lowered from 838 mm (2004/2005) to 673 mm (2054/2055). In scenario 2, this decrease in snow water equivalent and snow melt is partly compensated by the increase of winter precipitation (+10%), leading to an annual snow melt of 721 mm. As observed in Fig. 5 for March, an increase in precipitation, even if combined with an increase in temperature as assumed for scenario 2, can temporarily increase snow water equivalent. The duration of the snow covered period is however not prolonged, as it is rather goverened by temperature than by precipitation. It mounts to 177 days for both scenario runs, compared to 197 days simulated for present climate conditions (2004/2005).
While our original thought was that democracy would provide rights for all citizens and respect for the human rights, democracy has been a vehicle for ethnic chauvinism. Political parties have used nationalism in order to mobilize large voter segments, but at the same time alienating a relatively large part of the population. The people voting for the nationalists vote within their own narrow interest as ethnic Kyrgyz (International Crisis Group 2012: 12). For the common good – meaning all the inhabitants within the Kyrgyz Republic - such a voting pattern is not desirable. As Wachtel argues, Kyrgyzstan is becoming closer to a traditional European nation state in matters of ethnic homogeneity and perhaps this would in time stabilize the country, since it happened in Europe (Wachtel 2013: 11). The criticism of democracy as a concept, as we have described earlier, argues that it would allow people to become primitive and accept irrational arguments valid. To some extent, this seems to be the case in Kyrgyzstan.
The consequences of more algae accumulating in these two environments are still unknown, but we can hypothesize that ridges will become hot spots of biomass that will fuel the ice- associated food chain, since they will be accessible for grazers (Gradinger et al., 2010) and their carbon will be transferred to upper trophic levels (Falk-Petersen et al., 2009). On the contrary, snow infiltration communities will remain largely inaccessible for larger grazers during the productive season, although some grazers have been observed at the ice surface in Antarctic sea ice (Schnack-Schiel et al., 2001), and will likely sink when the ice melts, strengthening the sympagic-benthic coupling (Søreide et al., 2013) if they are not being decomposed and remineralized by bacteria. Moreover, the different algal species accumulating in these environments will influence how much carbon is exported to the seafloor, given that diatoms are more efficient carbon exporters than P. pouchetii (Reigstad and Wassmann, 2007). In terms of timing, while snow infiltration communities seem to appear only at the end of the productive season linked to ice melt, ridge communities are likely important year-round but particularly during the summer melt season when most ice algal biomass is lost from level sea ice. Thus, pressure ridges might act as refuges for the ice-associated flora and fauna during times of rapid melt and as an algal seed bank for newly formed ice.
In spite of these changes, overall enrollment grew from 65,000 to 159,000 in the last 5 years. This quantitative growth could have been positive if the new institutions were offering new programs in high demand or if they offered an alternative to existing programs, courses of higher quality, different delivery modes, geographically more accessible, and so on. Instead, there has been extensive overlap and duplication, without much thought to student or marketplace demands. Duplication is observed even within one educational institution. For example, at KSPU there are four institutes offering the same programs in foreign languages and two institutes with similar departments in business management and economics. At present in Kyrgyzstan, there are 31 state higher education institutions and 15 private. The majority have the same programs.
Abstract. Snow is an important component of water stor- age in the Himalayas. Previous snowmelt studies in the Hi- malayas have predominantly relied on remotely sensed snow cover. However, snow cover data provide no direct informa- tion on the actual amount of water stored in a snowpack, i.e., the snow water equivalent (SWE). Therefore, in this study remotely sensed snow cover was combined with in situ ob- servations and a modified version of the seNorge snow model to estimate (climate sensitivity of) SWE and snowmelt runoff in the Langtang catchment in Nepal. Snow cover data from Landsat 8 and the MOD10A2 snow cover product were val- idated with in situ snow cover observations provided by sur- face temperature and snow depth measurements resulting in classification accuracies of 85.7 and 83.1 % respectively. Op- timal model parameter values were obtained through data as- similation of MOD10A2 snow maps and snow depth mea- surements using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Inde- pendent validations of simulated snow depth and snow cover with observations show improvement after data assimilation compared to simulations without data assimilation. The ap- proach of modeling snow depth in a Kalman filter framework allows for data-constrained estimation of snow depth rather than snow cover alone, and this has great potential for fu- ture studies in complex terrain, especially in the Himalayas. Climate sensitivity tests with the optimized snow model re-
Note that, of course, we do not suggest that the small amount of seasonality that is observed in non-durables consumption such as e.g. fruit or vegetables is able to explain the entire quite sizeable seasonal pattern in a durable good such as housing. Rather our model offers a theoretical justification for a crucial assumption of search and matching models of the housing market such as Ngai and Tenreyro’s (2009), namely some amount of seasonality in house prices in the first place. These models focus on amplification mechanisms that produce large seasonal swings in house prices assuming a given small amount of “natural” seasonality in house prices. Our contribution is to endogenize this small amount of seasonality in house prices without resorting to ad hoc assumptions. Therefore our approach is fully consistent with an amplification mechanism à la Ngai and Tenreyro (2009).
The triplet sets are very rare and consequently suitable data containing sufficiently large sets for statistical analy- ses of monthly triplet births are difficult to obtain. James (1980) had the opportunity to perform his studies based on data from England and Wales (1952–1975). He com- pared the seasonality of opposite-sex twin sets, monozy- gotic twin sets, and triplet sets. His findings are presented in the Discussion section. In this study, we base our analy- ses on James’ data and our central topic is to compare the seasonality of TWR, TRR, and HRR.
in the introduction it is clear that a minimal model of snow deposition should at least include two effects: 1) sticking (which covers both, sintering and interlocking) as the origin of excess pore space and 2) the stochastic nature of the deposition mass flux. Both models, BD and KPZ include these effects. Since we focus on implications and applica- tions of these effects on snow structure we will apply either of them likewise. Obvious limitations of the model can in principle be investigated within extensions of BD/KPZ: the influence of imperfect sticking (e.g., as a consequence of crystal shapes) can be addressed by competitive growth models [Braunstein and Lam, 2005]; non-uniform particle shapes or sizes have been studied by Silveira and Reis ; oblique particle incidence (e.g. as a result of steady, low winds) has been studied by Meakin and Krug . In contrast, the dynamical evolution of the ice structure below the surface (metamorphism, stress induced re-arrangement) cannot easily be regarded as a generalization of BD/KPZ.
Most tourism destinations experience seasonal patterns of tourist visitation (BarOn, 1973; Yacoumis, 1980; Higham and Hinch, 2002; Jang 2004). However, it is interesting that while seasonality is one of the most prominent characteristics of tourism, it is also one of the least examined (Allcock, 1989; Butler, 2000; Higham and Hinch, 2002; Hinch and Jackson, 2000; Jang, 2004). It has been generally recognized that seasonality may result in severe economic and social issues such as an unstable labor market caused by temporal employment in a destination (Sutcliffe and Sinclair, 1980; Goeldner and Ritchie, 2003). Conversely, a few studies found that seasonality does not always have negative effects on a destination or tourists (Murphy, 1985; Butler, 1994).
there a lot of joint universities, such as: Kyrgyz-Russian Slovenia University, Kyrgyzstan-Turkish Manas University, Kyrgyz - Turkish Ataturk – Ala-Too University, American University in central Asia, Kyrgyz–Russian Academy of Education, Kyrgyz-Uzbek University, Kyrgyz-Kuwait University, and International University of Kyrgyzstan. Study abroad opens somebody can gain the Linguistic and Intercultural skills that are essential for success in the globalized world of tomorrow. But at the same time Education in such situation also needs on special education management. The exceptional example of multicultural education I watch at the Kent State University where the number of the international student rising every year. From the perspectives of our republic the appearances of joint universities it is also a great problem, because which needs quite new experience of managing them.