on health as it allows people in an urban environment to cool down at night.
The current investigation explores the sensitivity of the urban climate with respect to simple land-use change scenarios. However, further in-depth studies are required in order to improve the impact quanti- fication and uncertainty estimation. More specifi- cally, additional analysis should preferably focus on downscaling efforts using data from multiple region- al climate models that include atmosphere-city inter- actions. Nonetheless, the results presented here, al- though limited in scope, indicate that the integration of adaptation measures by city authorities could lead to substantial reduction of the urban heat island and heat waves that in turn will reduce the climate change impact on the well-being of the urban population. The introduction of green infrastructure provides the most realistic adaptation scenario for sustainable ur- ban development (Rosenzweig et al., 2018).
One of the compelling reasons for the choice of this model is that it has already been tested in the same region with an apparent success (Legesse et al., 2003). Although the two catchments have similar watershed and climatic contexts, they also exhibit differences. One marked difference is the fact that the Meki River traverses a vast wetland area that modifies its hydrological behavior. Since wetlands are not explicitly represented in the original PRMS, it was modified to take into account the wetland as one HRU. This is more ap- propriate than trying to use the original model as it is, which may well provide a ’good’ result through calibration, a sit- uation which Goswami and O’Connor (2010) referred to as models that are “right for the wrong reason”.
Spatio-temporal Land-Use and Land-Cover (LULC) changes have been affecting geo- environmental and climate change globally. This study aims to analyze LULC changes in Bahir Dar city and its surrounds. Landsat 5 TM (1987), Landsat 7 ETM+ (2002) and Landsat 8 OLI (2017) and SPOT images, and aerial photographs, master plan map and Google Earth Landsat images were used to analyze changes. In Bahir Dar city and its surrounds, LULC has been changing in space and time. During 1987-2017, more than 50% of the study area was covered with cropland. Settlement areas have increased from 3.3% in 1987 to 9.13% in 2017. However, wetland vegetation, shrubland, grassland, forest, and waterbodies have degraded. These changes are mainly attributed to population growth and its effect on the environment. Land-use and land-cover is a serious problem and it causes land and environmental degradation, climate change and loss of the biological environment.
Keywords: climate change; water resources; streamflow-natural recharge integration; modelling
Over the last decade, an extensive amount of research has been done on how climate change might influence different aspects of the hydrological cycle (precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, etc.) in many geographic areas [ 1 – 6 ]. The Mediterranean basin is a relatively closed subsystem of the global hydrologic system, where a number of interdependent processes occur with respect to the land-atmosphere interactions and their variability. According to the output of the current coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) for the 2080–2100 time slice [ 7 ], an increase in temperature between 1.5 ˝ C and 3.6 ˝ C and a decrease in precipitation between 10% and 20% are forecasted in the western Mediterranean ([ 8 ], in accordance with the A1B storyline from ICCP, which describes a balance across all energy sources in the greenhouse effect). The climate in the Mediterranean presents a great sensitivity to global change. Climate change projections also indicate increased probability of drought [ 9 ] and variability in extreme events. Changes in future climate will alter regional hydrologic cycles and will subsequently have an impact on water resource availability [ 10 ].
Abstract: The key anthropogenic effects on climate include the changes in landuse and emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Depletion of vegetation poses serious threat that speeds the process of climate change and reduces carbon sequestration by the environment. Thus, the preservation of natural environment in urban areas is an essential component of the garden city model, proposed by Sir Ebenezer Howard in 1898, to ensure ecological balance. Recent Landsat images showed that Kumasi does not have the required percentage of green vegetation as was stipulated in the garden city model on which the city was built. It was observed that most parts of Kumasi’s green vegetation have been lost to built environments. This study was conducted to assess the impact of urbanization on the garden city status and its effect on the micro-climate of the city. Significant changes in the vegetation cover of the city was evaluated from Landsat-TM imagery and analysis of a long term climatic data of Kumasi carried out over a 55-year period (1960 to 2015). It was observed that, climatic conditions have slightly changed, as mean surface temperature of has increased by 1.2 ◦ C/ 55years, due to the significant landuse changes from development of non-transpiring, reduced evaporative urban surfaces. However, the impact is not greatly felt due to the geographical location of the city on the globe despite the evidence of a considerable temperature change. Green vegetation conservation for the city is recommended as a top priority in future for city authorities and planners.
anomaly includes the Planck response, as well as the fast feedbacks such as those involving changes to snow, sea ice, lapse rate, clouds, and water vapour. ECS varies signifi- cantly between different state-of-the-art climate models; for instance, the CMIP5 ensemble shows a range of 1.9 to 4.4 K (Vial et al., 2013). Several ways have been put forward to constrain ECS, for example, through the use of paleoclimate data (e.g. Covey et al., 1996; Edwards et al., 2007), which is also the focus of this study. However, unlike results of mod- els, temperature reconstructions based on paleoclimate proxy data always contain a mixed signal of all processes active in
mum fractional coverages, A l,h ) and vegetation densities
(C l,h ) are prescribed from a static land-use map ensuring
that each grid point sum to unity:
EC-Earth can be run in coupled mode with the state-of- the-art dynamic vegetation and ecosystem model Lund- Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS; Smith et al. 2001 ). To capture the major plant types deter- mining global biomes, LPJ-GUESS uses 11 Plant Func- tional Types (PFTs) for natural vegetation, where 2 are her- baceous and 9 are woody types. These modeled PFTs are defined using fixed parameters to determine their morphol- ogy, phenology, and shade tolerance. As reported by Weiss et al. ( 2014 ), the coupling of vegetation dynamics with EC- Earth is performed by only providing the time-varying LAI values of high and low vegetation to the climate model. This can only affect climate by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. Therefore, in the original version, albedo, surface roughness length, and soil water exploitable by roots for evapotranspira- tion do not vary with vegetation state (LAI). Even surface albedo of snow in vegetation-covered areas does not depend on LAI values in this version of Weiss et al. ( 2014 ). The lack of albedo dependence on LAI over snow covered areas was motivated in Weiss et al. ( 2014 ) by an exploration of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data that revealed a compensation between the changes in visible and near infrared reflectance (Teuling and Senevi- ratne 2008 ). However, this negligible sensitivity of albedo to LAI only holds under the applied assumption that snow and effective vegetation fractions remain unchanged (Weiss et al. 2014 ), which is not very realistic (e.g. Bonan 2008 ). 2.2 EC‑Earth2.4 modified version
During the assessment of landuse transition of Kaftahumera, the basic concept of net change and swap change was properly addressed in order to capture all significant transitions along the temporal gradient. Accordingly the values of gain, loss, net change, swap and total change for the period 1972 – 2014 for each LULC class are presented in previous chapters of this dissertation. Along the study period, cropland and grassland are the dominant categories that experienced the highest gains. The gain in cropland and grassland is about 54 % and over 11 % of the study area respectively. On the other hand woodland has the highest loss in over 62 % of the area, followed by grassland with about 3 % of the area. The swap levels of woodland, cropland and grassland are 1.9, 1.7, and 4.9 respectively. The three dominant land categories: woodland, cropland and grassland show a significant amount of net change over the study period respectively. The loss in woodland is attributed to expansion of subsistence and large scale farming and underlying causes like population growth which competes over the natural vegetation of the region. The growth in population, both from resettlement and immigration due to casual labor pave the way for directly exerting pressure on the woodlands. The weak approach to set and implement legal procedure for protecting the natural ecosystem is another factor which allows easy access for the exploitation of woodlands (Lemenih et al., 2014). In general, the main driving forces for landuse transitions in Kaftahumera are both proximate and resulting from underlying causes of landusechanges. This resulted in systematic transitions affecting mainly the woodland vegetation of the region. The socio-ecological field survey also confirmed the involvement of human activities and policy intervention (resettlement and agricultural investment) that played the major role in exposing the woodland vegetation for change.
Anglies srautų apskaita iš miškų tvarkymo yra vienas iš svarbiausių išme- tamųjų ir absorbuojamųjų ŠESD šaltinių daugelyje šalių. (Ecosystems Climate Alliance, 2009). 2011 m. Durbane vyku- sioje JTBKKK Šalių Konferencijoje buvo patvirtinta, kad antrajam Kioto protoko- lo įsipareigojimų laikotarpiui ši apskaita taps privaloma. Taip pat buvo nuspręsta taikyti tikslesnę apskaitos metodiką – t. y. taikyti nustatytą orientacinį lygį kie- kvienai Šaliai. EK siūlomose apskaitos taisyklėse (COM(2012) 93 final) orienta- cinis lygis: „tai su miškų tvarkymu Šalies teritorijoje susijęs numatomas metinis grynasis per ataskaitinio laikotarpio me- tus išmetamas ar pašalinamas ŠESD kie- kis“. Anksčiau taikytina metodika gross/ net nebuvo pakankamai tiksli ir nėra įmanoma žinoti, ar šis bendras kiekis atspindi pažangą, lyginant su baziniais
Use of harvested area to measure landuse change can lead to a large bias in estimates of how much land has been converted to crops from other uses. While this may be an obvious point, it is too often missed in analysis of landusechanges. Reliable country- specific data, such as in the United States, that can measure the change in net planted area should be used when available. Where it is not available, land cover data can be used. For global coverage FAOSTAT data on arable land and land planted to permanent crops are available. The FAO definition of arable land is “the land under temporary agricultural crops (multiple-cropped areas are counted only once), temporary meadows for mowing or pasture, land under market and kitchen gardens, and land temporarily fallow (less than five years). The abandoned land resulting from shifting cultivation is not included in this category.” 5 This definition is different than the common meaning of arable land—land that is capable of producing a crop rather than land that is actually in crop production. Adding FAO’s measure of arable land to land that is in permanent crop provides a measure of landuse that is appropriate to use in determining the amount of new land that has been brought into production. Figure 8 reproduces Figure 2 using this measure with the exception of the United States, for which USDA’s NASS planted area data is used. For the United States, total planted area of principal field crops minus double crop area is
cover change over eastern China and increasing CO2 with a GCM (NCAR CCM3) coupled with the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). They suggest that land cover changes have a comparable effect on climate to that of historical increases in greenhouse gases at the regional scale. By using a global atmospheric GCM (CAM4.0) coupled with an urban canopy parameterization scheme, Chen and Zhang (2013) found warming effects of large-scale urbanization in eastern China and its influence on the East Asian winter monsoon. Also, regional models are used to investigate feedbacks of land cover to climate at the regional scale. Compared with GCMs, regional climate models allow for a more detailed investigation of the interactions between land cover modification and the atmospheric conditions, because regional models provide higher spatial resolution and capture physical processes and feedbacks occurring at the regional scale, which GCMs are not able to describe due to their coarse resolution (Anav et al. 2010; Fu 2003; Li et al. 2013b; Myoung et al. 2012; Shi and Wang 2003; Wang et al. 2012; Zheng et al. 2002). For instance, a regional climate model (RegCM2) coupled with BATS was used to estimate the climate effects of historical (Gao et al. 2003) and other possible land cover changes such as desertification, afforestation, and vegetation degradation (Zheng et al. 2002) in China. There is a resulting decrease in mean annual precipitation over northwest China and a decrease in temperature in coastal areas as a result of historical land cover changes. Vegetation degradation may increase flood events over the Yangtze-Huai River valleys and intensify droughts in northern China.
The study of Tomer & Schilling (2009) is an example of a coupled water-energy budget approach applied in the United States. This approach is based on the Budyko hypothesis to quantify the impact of climate change and landuse change on mean annual streamflow. This hypothesis compares two ratios. The first one is a ratio between the mean annual actual evapotranspiration and the mean annual precipitation. The second one is a ratio between the mean annual actual evapotranspiration and the mean annual potential evapotranspiration. The actual evapotranspiration is controlled by the relative proportion and timing of available water and energy (denoted as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration), and by the type and condition of vegetation. The amount of unused water and energy is estimated by the first and second ratio respectively. A shift in these values over different periods, related to the climate conditions, will indicate whether climate change and/or landuse change was the driving factor. The four catchments included in the study of Tomer & Schilling (2009) gave reasonable results. Since their study includes a small number of catchments, they were able to study them in detail and could for example find a rapid increase in soybean cultivation which was an explanation for the results of the method. Other studies which have made use of the coupled water- energy budget approach in the recent past are: Zheng et al. (2009), Wang & Hejazi (2011), Renner et al. (2014) and Marhaentho et al. (in press).
Rainfed farming is one of the main farming systems in a Mediterranean semi-arid and sub-humid climate. Increasing population and improper or intensive landuse activities have resulted in various types of land degradation in many parts of the world (Cerdà et al., 2010). Land degradation caused by improper landuse is a worldwide problem that has revived the issue of resources sustainability (Hurni, 1997). Degra- dation processes, such as soil erosion, salinization, crust- ing, and loss of soil fertility, affect the biological productiv- ity of the land with subsequent impacts on the biodiversity of vegetation cover and/or its density (Le Houerou, 1996). Land degradation may result from the fragility of dryland ecosystems, which, under excessive human pressure or dras- tic changes in landuse, reduce their productivity and re- silience (Turkelboom et al., 2008).
al. 2007c; Lettenmaier et al. 1994. The mosaic landuse pattern is created by variations in
amounts of urban, agricultural, grassland, forest, desert and wetlands in a region. There is a strong need to understand regional variability in runoff at the continental scale to develop future policy. Assessing runoff patterns and variations at the continental scale is difficult because runoff patterns are created by differences in soil, precipitation, temperature, landuse and slope. Measuring the vulnerability of an area to runoff regimes depends often on the moisture content of soil within the landscape. Measurement of the soil moisture is an important metric that helps determine the amount of runoff and ecohydrological boundaries of a region. Sustainable water resource management at the continental scale requires an understanding of the complex interactions that exist between climatic and topographical variables to create runoff. Research is lacking information on how continental scale runoff patterns change with climatechanges and urban growth. This research is able to add insight into regional differences in runoff due to interactions between temperature, precipitation, evaporation, vegetation and soil moisture. Continental scale research at the watershed scale is limited and is severely needed to help develop sustainable water resource policy.
The Amendment to the 2012 Water Distribution System Master Plan will incorporate the updated information into the Water Master Plan. The Amendment was developed in accordance with the Oregon Administrative Rule (OAR) 660-011 which requires that “..a City or County shall develop and adopt a public facility plan for areas within the urban growth boundary containing a population greater than 2,500 person. The purpose of the plan is to help assure the urban development in such urban growth boundaries is guided and supported by the types and levels of urban facilities and services appropriate for the needs and requirements of the urban areas to be serviced, and that those facilities and services are provided in a timely, orderly and efficient arrangement..”. The revisions made in the Amendment will improve the City’s ability to meet OAR 660-011.
Advocates of strict rules to protect the grassland areas propose to strengthen the extensive grassland use without increasing incentives of a more intensified management. The NABU calls for a special premium for the farmers who extensively manage their grassland (NABU 2004) to offset the economic disadvantages of grassland farming in comparison to crop production. An important aspect of this plan is to grant premiums for arable farm land and for grassland separately and with particular reference to the location. Additionally, the premiums must be revoked in case of a conversion of the land. However, the enforcement of such a premium system would be quite complicated and subject to a large number of exceptions. In addition to economic stimulation, environmental interest groups endorse direct measures to protect ecologically valuable land. The European directive Natura 2000 requires the members of the EU to identify protected sites according to the European Conservation of Wild Birds Directive. The former environmental minister of Schleswig-Holstein, Klaus Müller of the Green Party, proposed to declare 24 648 ha of Eiderstedt, which is practically the whole area of the peninsula except for the settlements, as sanctuary. This caused fierce opposition as this plan exceeded the minimum requirements of the directive (SH-Landtag 2004). Farmers feared that the declaration of a large protected area would bring them economic disadvantages as new investments and expansions of agricultural activities would be severely regulated.
Bangladesh has experienced LULCC over the years due to population and economy growth, infrastructure expansion (Islam and Hassan 2011), and climate change (Rahman and Manprasert 2006). The agricultural land in Bangladesh is threatened by soil salinity, productivity loss (especially in the coastal areas) (Hossain 2015), and climate events, such as floods (Amin et al. 2015), which may devastate vegetation and man-made facilities and therefore cause LULCC at the local scale. In addition, despite the efforts made by local gov- ernment and international programs, forest areas continue to decrease (Chowdhury and Koike 2010; Hasan et al. 2017; Rasul et al. 2004; Reddy et al. 2016) and may disappear in the next 30–40 years or earlier (Chowdhury and Koike 2010). Extensive water resources (in the form of ponds, natural de- pressions, lakes, canals, rivers, estuaries, and coastal areas) have contributed to the aquaculture industry expansion in re- cent decades (Gias 2005; Shamsuzzaman et al. 2017). The aquaculture in Bangladesh can be broadly divided into two types, freshwater aquaculture (mainly comprised of pond fish farming) and coastal aquaculture (mainly shrimp farming) (Gias 2005). The area of fish ponds in Bangladesh has in- creased from 2,655 km 2 in 2001–2002 to 3,700 km 2 in 2013–2014, while the area of coastal shrimp farms has nearly doubled from 1,414 km 2 in 2001–2002 to 2,753 km 2 in 2013– 2014 (Fisheries Resources Survey System 2003, 2016) due to increased demand of shrimps in the international market (Inderbitzin et al. 2010). In addition, the conversion of tradi- tional paddy culture land to shrimp culture ponds is a well- established practice in the southwest coastal area of Bangladesh (Ali 2006; Khan et al. 2015).
A third effect of population densification has been the need to subdivide land, both formally and informally. It is important to note that population densification is the result of not only an absolute increase in population, but also an absolute decrease in village land in Usoma. Both of these vectors are responsible for there being more people per unit area of land. With births of multiple children and the lack of fresh lands for acquisition and settling, families have needed to subdivide land in order to transfer it to the next generation. In some cases, because it was not possible to divide the land among all sons, the entire parcel of land was sold and the proceeds divided among the children (Interviewee 14, Interviewee 37). Also, when villagers affected by land acquisition attempted to purchase land from other villagers, subdivisions were carried out. The overall effect has been one of shrinking landholdings from generation to generation.
Land-change studies aim to observe and monitor land cover and landusechanges (LCLUC), explain its causes and consequences, and model its processes to predict future changes [Robinson et al., 2013]. LCLUC can alter regional as well as global climate through changing characteristics of the Earth’s surface and atmosphere [Jain et al., 2013]. It can affect the behavior of the essential components of the climate system such as biophysical (e.g., surface temperature, albedo, evaporation), biogeochemical (e.g., carbon cycle) and biogeographical (e.g., species location and migration) components [Robinson et al., 2013]. LCLUC is an important indicator to understand the interactions between anthropogenic activities and the environment [Dewan et al., 2012]. Understanding the dynamics and drivers of LCLUC at local, regional and global scales will help policy-makers in effectively targeting areas of concern and implementing proper landuse policies. Human activities have profound effect on land cover, especially observed in developing countries in the recent years where LCLUC are driven by socioeconomic development [Dewan et al., 2012] . To assess the land cover changes, there is an increasing demand of detailed spatial coverages with high temporal frequency to assess land cover changes [Thackway et al., 2013]. A large number of studies have been devoted to the LCLUC across the globe over different temporal and spatial time scales (E.g.: [Meiyappan et al., 2016], [Roy et al., 2015], [Reddy et al., 2016], [Huq et al., 2015], [Islam and Hassan, 2011], [Zaman et al., 2010], [Chowdhury and Koike, 2010]). However, further study is required to find the relationship between the dynamics and drivers of LCLUC at local, regional and global scales.
Agricultural activities in Centre Region is the primary driver of deforestation LULC changes. On the field, a wide range of agricultural activities was observed and included crop cultivation, grazing, agroforestry, forestry, and fish farming. There are almost twenty different varieties of crops (sweet potato, cassava, cocoyam, yam, banana plantain, maize, pineapple, peanut, pepper), grown through slash and burn for subsistence purposes. Commercial or rental crops grown included cocoa, coffee, sugar cane, oil palm and income generating crops were pineapples, bananas, oil palms, and tomatoes. Subsistence shifting cultivation took the form extensive farming and was characterized by fallow periods of more than five years. Since 1990, fallow periods have reduced to between 1-3 years due to demographic pressure and urbanization. Commercial or rental agriculture is intensive but occupied large expanses of land in the region, even in the case of family farms. The cultivation of market oriented food crops was favoured by the economic crisis of the early 1980s and are cultivated extensively and intensively. Small farmers seldom cultivate more than 1ha while elites acquire farmlands of more than 10 or 200ha. There are also common initiative groups of farmers who acquire large parcels of land for the production of mainly market oriented crops. As concerns industrial farming, a few agro industries such as SOCAPALM (oil palm) and SOSUCAM (Sugar cane) exist and possess largest land holdings. In 2008, an agro pole for Banana was created in Mpagne found in the northern part of Mbam & Inoubou Division (figure 7). In addition to the development of agriculture, one can notice the clearing of the land for wood extraction for commercial, fuelwood purposes and charcoal production (mainly domestic uses) to be sold in the town (Yaoundé above all) since 1990. The region is suitable for traditional logging with carpenters (residing in the city of Yaoundé) who uses saw for cutting trees and wood for domestic and commercial uses. Industrial logging is also observed mainly in forest management units and some community forest. Wood industry and first transformations are found around the city of Yaoundé coupled with hundreds of carpenters working to produce household furniture for the city dwellers. These are factors considered as direct or proximate causes of deforestation and LULC changes in this region.