The management planning of Pedu–Muda reservoir, Kedah, was investigated in the context of the climatechange evo- lution. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the climatechange to the reservoir operating management system and its sustainability. The study was divided into two sections; Analysis 1 refers to the reservoir optimization adapted with the climate assessment. The statistical downscaling model reacted as the climate model to generate the long-term pattern of the local climates affected by the greenhouse gases. Analysis 2 refers to the reservoir optimization but excluded the climate changes assessment in the analyses. The non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm version II (NSGA-II) was applied in both analyses to optimize the water use due to the multi-objectives demand, maximizing water release, minimizing water shortage and maximizing reservoir storage. The formation of Pareto optimal solutions from both analyses was measured and compared. The results showed the Analysis 1 potential to produce consistence monthly flow with lesser error and higher correlation values. It also produced better Pareto optimal solution set and considered all the objectives demands. The NSGA-II also successfully improves and re-manages the reservoir storage efficiently and reduce the dependancy of these reservoirs.
Although these downscaling techniques can match the statistics and probability distribution of historical precipitation, they do not eliminate all errors (Maraun 2016; Eden and Widmann 2014; Grillakis et al. 2013). For instance, quantile mapping automatically modifies the number of wet days in order to match the probability distribution function (PDF) (Maraun 2016). Further, when sampling noise is extremely high, nonparametric quantile mapping basically employs random corrections which generates very noisy solutions (Maraun 2016). van Pelt et al. (2009) study examines two bias-correction methods. They conclude that although the first method amends the average, numerous consecutive precipitation days were incorrectly removed. The second method adjusted the coefficient of variance and mean, but the average underperformed while the temporal precipitation pattern improved. This leads to the hypothesis of this paper that bias-correction may alter the precipitation transition states of climate cycles embedded in the GCMs, which are hydrologically detrimental. For example, monthly and sometimes annual scale climate states that drive precipitation variability are important for water supply planning. At these temporal scales, persistence of certain states, such as multiple months or years of less-than-average precipitation during the wet season can have severe consequences on water management. Multiple consecutive months with below average precipitation could affect streamflow and the availability of surface water (Clark et al. 2014). Additionally, multiple wet months would increase the availability of surface water, which could be captured and stored for future use. It is important to simulate the transition between these climate states to create a more robust model that can facilitate informed decisions. Although annual budgets are important and was considered, this research focuses on winter and summer months.
Reservoir management usually considers short- to medium-term operation horizons. However, climatechange and other longer term societal changes pose a challenge for planning water utilization from reservoirs. The key aspect is how to incentive behaviour change towards gradual adaptation. We propose an evolutionary approach to model adaptation, considering the Water Footprint as the main criterion for driving adaptation in long-term. The approach is tested in a case in Brazil, revealing promising preliminary results.
The reservoir data for existing, under construction, and planned dams were obtained from the MRC hydropower database (Mekong River Commission, 2009). There are al- together 136 reservoirs in the hydropower database, with most of them still being at the planning stage. As the MRC database includes only the reservoirs in the Lower Mekong Basin, we added six reservoirs in the Chinese part of the basin based on ADB (2004). Some reservoirs were omitted, namely: those with active storage of less than 2 × 10 6 m 3 ; re- regulating dams; and the Don Sahong dam (which captures only part of the flow of the main river). This resulted in a database of 126 reservoirs that were taken into account in our study, including 110 tributary reservoirs and 16 mainstream reservoirs. Many of the reservoirs included still have a rel- atively small regulation capacity relative to river discharge, and therefore most likely only have a small impact on out- flows at the basin scale. Since the reservoiroperation rules are not available in the databases, we computed these for each reservoir using a linear optimisation method presented in the Methods section.
Operating rule curves have been widely applied to reservoiroperation, due to their ease of implementa- tion. However, these curves excluding ecological requirement are generally derived from observed or synthetic ﬂows and have rarely been determined by future ﬂows under climatechange. This paper devel- ops an integrated adaptive optimization model (IAOM) for derivation of multipurpose reservoir operating rule curves including ecological operating rule curve under future climatechange. Steps in the proposed IAOM include: (1) weather generator module to generate feasible future climate conditions, (2) VIC model as the hydrological simulation module to generate streamﬂows from those future weather condi- tions, and (3) multipurpose reservoir optimization module to determine the optimal reservoir operations to deal with climatechange. China’s Danjiangkou reservoir in Han River basin is selected for a case study. The results demonstrate that the IAOM provides optimal multipurpose reservoir operating rule curves that reﬂect the hydrologic characteristics of future climatechange. Ecological supply water operation will alleviate negative effect of dam on river ecosystem without reducing conservation beneﬁts and ﬂood con- trol standard. Therefore, they can consult with reservoir administrators if it is useful results for operations.
To contextualise the densities obtained, we have compared these averages with those obtained in similar cases on the continent, selecting the provincial as an optimal comparative scale. For the comparative analysis, we have selected as a study group those Spanish provinces whose capital is situated on the coast. The characteristics of the mainland provinces with coastal capitals have several factors in common with the island territories: generally, the provinces and their capitals concentrate first-order tourist resorts, also providing service infrastructure and transportation in a very similar way to the islands. The Spanish coastal provinces, except for Barcelona, find themselves with lower urban pressures compared to the levels of the islands of the ORs; ten percent less. Setting the territorial density of islands of ORs and analysing the territorial coastal areas of greatest density in continental Europe, only large coastal conurbations surpass the urban and peri-urban land use of the Canary Islands or Reunion Island. We refer to Lisbon, Oporto, Naples, the Region of Attica (Athens) and the Dutch administrative regions of Rotterdam, The Hague and Amsterdam. From the above data, ORs islands have a greater average urban pressure than the most urbanized coastal areas of the continent, both in terms of land use and demographic density values. While the islands with continental influence have similar density patterns to their mainland references, islands of the ORs have greater urban and peri-urban pressure, a determinant factor in the degree of vulnerability to climatechange.
This study employed a Monte-Carlo simulation approach to characterise the uncertainties in climatechange induced variations in storage requirements and performance (reliability (time- and volume- based), resilience, vulnerability and sustainability) of surface water reservoirs. Using a calibrated rainfall–runoff (R–R) model, the baseline runoff scenario was first simulated. The R–R inputs (rainfall and temperature) were then perturbed using plausible delta-changes to produce simulated climatechange runoff scenarios. Stochastic models of the runoff were developed and used to generate ensembles of both the current and climate-change-perturbed future runoff scenarios. The resulting runoff ensembles were used to force simulation models of the behaviour of the reservoir to produce ‘populations’ of required reservoir storage capacity to meet demands, and the performance. Comparing these parameters between the current and the perturbed provided the population of climatechange effects which was then analysed to determine the variability in the impacts. The methodology was applied to the Pong reservoir on the Beas River in northern India. The reservoir serves irrigation and hydropower needs and the hydrol- ogy of the catchment is highly influenced by Himalayan seasonal snow and glaciers, and Monsoon rain- fall, both of which are predicted to change due to climatechange. The results show that required reservoir capacity is highly variable with a coefficient of variation (CV) as high as 0.3 as the future climate becomes drier. Of the performance indices, the vulnerability recorded the highest variability (CV up to 0.5) while the volume-based reliability was the least variable. Such variabilities or uncertainties will, no doubt, complicate the development of climatechangeadaptation measures; however, knowledge of their sheer magnitudes as obtained in this study will help in the formulation of appropriate policy and technical interventions for sustaining and possibly enhancing water security for irrigation and other uses served by Pong reservoir.
Other methods recognize climatechange refugia based on biological data. Past persistence through climatechange might be a clue to locations buffered in the future, either for native spe- cies or those that will shift into the area [ 33 ]. For example, disjunct populations of cool-temper- ate plant species (e.g., Tsuga canadensis) are scattered across Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Kentucky, apparent relicts of northward postglacial migrations in the late-glacial or early Holo- cene. The populations are concentrated in unique microhabitats, usually north-facing slopes and shaded ravines. Similarly, relict populations at the rear or trailing edge of a species’ range might indicate climatechange refugia [ 59 ]. Moreover, these sites often house important genetic and trait diversity because they are older and perhaps more adapted to conditions at the envi- ronmental margin [ 13 ]. A systematic inventory of disjunct plant and animal species, accompa- nied by local habitat characterization and by determination (from biogeography, paleoecology, genetics, or environmental history) of whether they represent relicts or naturalized non-native
The literature suggests that adaptation is an important concept in the issue of climatechange in two ways: (i) relating to the assessment of impacts and vulnerabilities, and (ii) development and evaluation of response options. Therefore, adaptation is subject to numerous understandings and uses among different disciplines. According to Adger et al (2005), adaptation consists of diverse activities undertaken by individuals and groups for personal or collective interest and by governments in the interest of the public. He emphasizes that adaptation is required specifically to decrease the vulnerability of systems by enhancing their capacity to cope with that occur (Adger et al., 2005:79). Thus, adaptation involves a continuous process of building adaptive capacity of individuals, communities, and groups to cope with a range of climatic events and to translate these capacities into actions. However, adaptation will vary according to the systems in which they occur, who undertakes them, the climatic stimuli that prompts them, and their timing, functions, forms, and effects. As an illustration, Oliver-Smith (2004) recalls discourses on society’s domination over nature. Adaptation here would include adjustments by humans of their surrounding environment, rather than changing their behaviour. From the perspective of climatechange researchers, such adaptation would require knowledge about magnitude and designs of the changes, something which is currently not fully understood (IPCC, 2001a). The two of the most common categories of adaptation are described by Fussel (2007) as autonomous adaptation and planned adaptation. Autonomous adaptation is described by Fussel as that which is widely undertaken by individuals in response to a stimulus. By contrast, planned adaptation takes place either in anticipation of a climatic event or after the event has occurred. Adaptation approaches have been distinguished according to individuals’
First generation regional NRM plans focused on improving the condition and trend of a region’s natural assets but weakly referred to the region’s social and community assets (Robinson et al. 2009). This was largely driven by a biophysical sciences bias in funding provided for regional NRM planning. Many regions sought to more fundamentally integrate social and environmental issues in their planning processes, rather than just exploring the social and economic impacts of their proposed targets and actions. Next generation NRM plans have the opportunity be more actively focused on viewing social and community resilience alongside ecological resilience concepts. They can also view their regional communities and institutions as important assets requiring integrated effort and investment (Bohnet 2010). This will be a significant challenge as clearer concepts of community resilience to climatechange are only just emerging in the literature (see Chapters 6 & 7 of this report), and effective integration between the biophysical and social planning domains remains limited in practice.
Smith KR, Woodward A, Campbell-Lendrum D, Chadee DD, Honda Y, Liu Q, et al. 2014. Human health: impacts, adaptation, and co-benefits. In: ClimateChange 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TE, et al., eds). Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA:Cambridge University Press, 709-754.
Global Circulation models were used but the specific scenarios weren't discussed in the paper. These projections were then fed into the overall model which was used to create a baseline. Climate projections influenced caribou herd population and vegetation patterns. Additionally, local knowledge (through interviews and mapping) was also used as a baseline to consider herd behaviour in past warm winters. Climatechange was expected to impact herd migration and decrease heard size.
responsibilities that councils may choose to take on provides a wealth of opportunity for difference between local governments across the country. For example, some councils may provide or be responsible for: immunisation; arts and cultural programs; wetlands; information services; community centres, services, and/or development programs; youth advisory committees; aged care; home care; community care; and crime prevention to name a few (Local Government Association of South Australia, n.d.). There are many climate impacts (as we will see in the coming chapters) that can and will affect these areas of service provision. While these may be responsibilities that a council chooses to take on, a key report found that councils often feel pressured to take on certain areas of service provision, placing themselves in a position where their responsibilities outweigh their financial capacity to deliver (Randall, 2003). The report showed that smaller councils felt the pressure to fill gaps in service delivery that the state government or private sector did not provide or no longer provided. In summary, councils deliver differing degrees of service provision across the country, are responsible for the bulk of adaptationplanning in Australia, and are often already stretched thin across their remit.
(World Bank Group, 2011). These changes will directly and negatively impact the water cycle and, by association, the lives and livelihoods of people, especially the poor and the vulnerable in society. Even with these recent events and the gloomy future projections for the climate, measures and strategies put in place to mitigate and adapt to climatechange in Ghana appear to be ad-hoc (reactive) and largely in response to emergencies. As a result, the long-term consequences of climatechange, and the associated anticipatory adaptation that is required to respond to these changes, are barely considered. Incorporation of adaptation measures into plans, programmes, projects and budgets can reduce the adverse impacts of climatechange on the sustainability of development programmes and projects (MEST, 2010). In this way, development interventions can become resilient and this is described as climate-proofing by CARE International. In a similar way, people’s adaptive capacities, particularly through their WaSH practices, can be improved and their vulnerability levels reduced through the integration of climatechangeadaptation into development plans (Füssel, 2007). Accordingly, there is a need to plan appropriately and pragmatically to embrace a development pathway that ensures resilience and incorporates climatechangeadaptation issues into all aspects of WaSH Sector development planning. Like many other developing countries, the challenge now lies with moving away from focusing solely on disaster and emergency WaSH relief, towards a forward- thinking strategic approach to WaSH development that is climate resilient (Hadwen et al. 2016). To date, integration of climatechange into development programmes in Ghana has only been considered at the National level. At the local level, it is not clear how or if district authorities are mainstreaming climatechangeadaptation measures into development plans. As Nelson & Agbey, (2005) noted, climatechangeadaptation and its integration has only become a recent issue for policy- makers and planners in Ghana and its mainstreaming remains a challenge. Given this context, this research paper aims to explore the extent to which climatechangeadaptation measures are being mainstreamed into the WaSH development plans for sustainable development for the Bolgatanga Municipal Assembly, in northern Ghana and, on the basis of these findings, to develop an approach which will aid in the conceptualization and mainstreaming of climatechangeadaptation into future WaSH policy, planning and implementation in the region.
Indeed, although Boracay is frequently portrayed as a tourism gem, it is cited in the literature as an example of tourism gone wrong, with a myriad of environmental and social problems (Carter, 2004; Ong et al., 2011). As early as 1997, researchers sounded the alarm on the need to remain within physical, tourist, resident, transport, and governance carrying capacity thresholds if Boracay was to continue as a sustainable destination (Trousdale, 1997, 1999). The growth since the 1990s has so far resulted in a situation characterised by ad hoc coastal tourism development, emphasis on improvement and cleanliness of the ‘visual environment’ but lacking in social and cultural sustainability, and mutual adjustment among various stakeholders (Carter, 2004; Ong et al., 2011). The island is deemed very important to the Philippines’ tourism, and its challenges are currently co-managed by the national government through the Department of Tourism (DOT), Department of Environment & Natural Resources (DENR), and the local government of Malay, thereby going against the spirit of local government devolution. Nevertheless, the Malay municipal planning and development officer Alma Belejerdo (2012) acknowledges the municipality’s challenges and admits that the municipality needs all the help it can get from both the national government and the private sector. On the basis of research undertaken on Boracay, this paper presents the intimate political ecology dynamics of an urbanised tourist island in the context of climatechangeadaptation. The adaptive capacity of the agents, systems, and institutions internal and external to the islands’ tourism system with respect to climatechange is dependent upon various factors, one of which is how these agents or actors perceive their roles and participation in the culture of tourism, climatechangeadaptation, and governance. Unravelling these factors and perceptions is best done by applying the theoretical and methodological political ecology approach set out in the previous paper (Maguigad, King, & Cottrell, 2015).
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different individuals, communities, or stake- holder groups usually reflect one or more of these measures over the others and are influenced by prioritised values unique to that group or indi- vidual. When it comes to decisions about what strategies to adopt in relation to climatechangeadaptation, questions arise over whose values count and whether these values will change over time as more evidence becomes available or climatechange impacts become more detrimen- tal. For example, the spread of wild horses in the Australian Alps poses a significant risk to fragile habitats, and while conservation managers have considered culling the horses to minimise damage, they are constrained by public attitudes (NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service, 2008). On the other hand, the culling of foxes or other invasive fauna does not provoke the same public reaction (Green and Osborne, 1994). A second example can be seen with the excessive water use by ski resorts for snowmaking. At the moment, the public does not seem to consider the impacts of the high water consumption on them. However, in the future when water shortages are predicted to occur in the region due to climatechange and water prices subsequently increase, public opinion of snowmaking practices may also change (Pickering and Buckley, 2010). 1
When asked about mitigation and adaptation efforts in their communities, city planners and officials tended to emphasize mitigation efforts rather than adaptation programs. This finding held true even when interviewees were asked about adaptation efforts directly. This emphasis on mitigation could be due in part to the difficulty in parsing whether a certain policy falls under “adaptation” or “mitigation” or both. For example, interviewees mentioned promoting the use of electric vehicles and the installation of solar-powered panels as adaptation efforts, because the policy moves consumers off a fossil-fuel based energy grid to a renewable energy system. However, this policy is also considered a mitigation approach, as fuel-efficient vehicles and renewable energy systems can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Another possible explanation for the emphasis on mitigation could be the broader focus on municipalities meeting their community-level GHG emission reduction target goals; as mitigation strategies relate more directly to these targets than adaptation efforts and are more measurable, these strategies might be more familiar to interviewees. For example, interviewees commonly mentioned their municipalities’ successes in reducing GHGs within certain sectors, particularly those with outcomes that are easier to control and measure (e.g., reducing emissions from water treatment facilities).
Abstract: Climatechange is emerging as the main driver of current and future climate- related risks for small islands. These risks include sea level rise, stronger tropical cyclones, and changing rainfall patterns. While there is now high confidence in the scientific community that the present change in climate is anthropogenic in nature compared to the Earth’s geologic history of natural variability, there is a need for more detailed evaluations of the relationships between humans and the climate. As a human activity affected by climatechange, tourism is in need of such analyses since current positivist analytical tools are inadequate for evaluating the complexity of such interactions. This paper reviews the literature, scientific frameworks, and methodological epistemologies used to analyse human community relationships to natural environments and their applicability in small island tourism environments that are impacted by climatechange in the Philippines. Political ecology emerges as a potent and appropriate framework since climatechangeadaptationplanning processes for island tourism are inherently political. The paper advances the use of political ecology for climatechangeadaptation to grapple with the equally complex phenomena of island tourism urbanisation and climatechange, thereby contributing to the discourse in three research areas.
The collaboration with different service providers, line agencies and institutions is essential for effective adaptationplanning (Agrawal, 2010; Regmi et al., 2014) and a wide range of thematic expertise is important at local level (GON, 2011; Regmi et al., 2014). The presence of VDC secretary, political representatives and community members is seen in the adaptationplanning as a means of collaboration and building common understanding. However, due to the absence of government- constituted committees and elected representatives (Dhungel et al., 2011) at the local level, the process of adaptationplanning lacks leadership. Agarwal et al. (2012) explained the importance of public accountability for an effective adaptation to climatechange and further stated that the adaptation practice might remain a top-down activity without an elected body at local level, undertaken without sufficient information about local risks and capacities relevant to climatechange. A key finding of this research is that in all three cases the VDCs are not accountable for the LAPA planning and implementation, although the process is formalised by endorsing the plans through village council. Different coordination mechanisms have been formed at VDC level, such as the VEECCCC in Bela, VFCC in Gadhawa and village level climatechangeadaptation and risk