29 rata smanjenje je starijih doseljeničkih kontigenata uslijed mortaliteta i reemigracije. Samo 3 % stanovništva doselilo je prije 1945. g., prijašnji doseljenički kontigenti su smanjeni zbog gore već navedenih razloga. Ako se gleda ukupno kretanje stanovništva, prema popisu iz 1961. (tab. 2) vidi se porast broja stanovnika (razlog povratak odseljenih nakon II. svjetskog rata). Takav utjecaj na porast broja stanovnika ne vidi se 2001. (nakon Domovinskog rata) (tab. 2). Razlog tome je veća smrtnost i manja rodnost stanovništva nego 70-ih godina. Razdoblje nakon Domovinskog rata uključuje doseljavanje izbjeglog stanovništva srpske nacionalnosti za vrijeme rata. Stanovnišvo iz inozemstva najviše doseljava iz Njemačke, BiH i Srbije. To je stanovništvo koje je izbjeglo za vrijeme Domovinskog rata (sl. 19) ili otišlo na privremeni rad u inozemstvo (Njemačka). Prema slici 19 moglo bi se zaključiti kako je područje općine posljednjih nekoliko godina imigracijsko područje, no stanovništvo koje je doselilo uglavnom se samo vratilo i to većinom stanovništvo starije životne dobi. Prema posljednjem popisu stanovništva (2011.) najveći udio zauzima lokalno preseljenje (39 %) (sl. 18). Lokalno stanovništvo iz ruralnih naselja migriralo je u centar rada, Gospić. Budući da se većinom doselilo stanovništvo iz lokalnih i regionalnih područja, može se zaključiti kako se intenzitet migracije smanjuje s povećanjem udaljenosti. Nakon doseljavanja stanovništva iz drugih naselja općine, najveći udio zauzima unutaropćinsko doseljavanje (22 %) i međužupanijsko doseljavanje (21 %). S obzirom na smanjeni udio doseljenih iz drugih županija za zaključiti je kako Gospić, koji se nije razvio u regionalno središte, nema privlačne faktore koji bi potaknuli stanovništvo na doseljavanje.
Germany. Moreover, East Germany experienced not only demographic changes but also fundamental economic restructuring. Due to the general conditions of reorganisation and change following reunification, it could be argued that the institutional framework was better suited to foster policies of adapting to demographic change. The relatively more pragmatic attitude towards dealing with demographic change is reflected for ex- ample in large scale redevelopment policies aimed at downsizing and adapting existing infrastructure and housing, such as the project Stadtumbau Ost (“City redevelopment East”) (Wiechmann & Pallagst, 2012). Thus, the extent of the demographic changes, the relatively dire economic situation when compared to the West and the institutional setting of fundamental changes may jointly create circumstances where policy can (and may have to) adjust public service provision more flexibly to changes in demand. A few limitations of the analysis should be noted. First, as discussed above, the esti- mation may suffer from endogeneity issues. Although an exploratory robustness check using an instrumental variable supports the OLS results, instruments for the interac- tion results and the entire time period would further strengthen the findings. Second, the exclusion of the Federal State of Saarland, while ensuring representativeness of the estimates, implies that inherently interesting outliers were not analysed. In particular, Saarland is one of the few Federal States in the West of Germany that experienced population decline and falls in the number of students on a comparable level to East Germany. The strong population decline and the introduction of a legal minimum school size in 2005 make Saarland an interesting case of analysis that warrants inves- tigation in future research. Third, although responsiveness of primary school supply may affect regional disparities, the conclusions to be drawn from the present analysis are limited by the fact that we can only investigate change in the number of schools. Alternative indicators such as per capita education spending, indicators of teaching quality, or measures of accessibility (such as average distance to the nearest school) on a district level would be necessary to further evaluate the consequences of demographic change for regional primary school provision.
Populationprojections of TurkStat, which was last produced according to the results of 2008 ABPRS and 2008 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey, are renewed due to improvements on the birth and death data obtained from registration systems, formation of a serial of migration statistics from ABPRS and to meet the national and international needs. The study for the populationprojections were carried out by a working group including the participants from related university and institutions. A working group has been constructed by representatives from TurkStat, Ministry of Development and Hacettepe Universitiy Institute of Population Studies.
As mentioned above, the area, coverage and completeness has varied from one Burmese census to another. As estimates of fertility and mortality were obtained using different methods and information, their consistency is limited and reliable past trends of these components are not available for populationprojections. However, as observed in the previous Chapter, the fertility of Burma has declined during the last intercensal period and could be expected to decline continuously with socio-economic development, •in accordance with the demographic transition theory. A significant complication is that Burma still has a pro- natalist policy. Although it is difficult to guess the childbearing behaviour of couples for the future, especially for a period as long as 30 years, the fertility decline might be expected to reach replacement level by the end of the projection period. This type of assumption is often made for projection purposes (United Nations, 1977b:7-8).
Policy development in Indigenous affairs often proceeds with dated estimates of population and with little understanding of the likely impact of changing demographic parameters on future Indigenous population size and composition. To the extent that policy itself can influence demographic outcomes, this represents a significant deficiency in current planning methodology. To stimulate a dialogue around such issues, this paper models the national and regional population impacts of a continuation of existing mortality and fertility regimes compared to a situation where these converge. The effects of inter-regional migration are also considered. The scenarios presented are heuristic only and reflect the logic of sustaining into the future recently observed demographic trends, compared to following through on the idea of convergence in sociodemographic outcomes over timescales that are commensurate with stated policy ambitions. As such, they are designed to sketch out the effects on the size and composition of Indigenous population of no change in current conditions compared to maximum change. What they show is that while the overall size of the Indigenous population is conservatively projected to be around 830,000 by 2031, regardless of which assumptions are adopted, any movement towards convergence in demographic outcomes, as implied by current Closing the Gap policies, produces a population that is much older and more urban in profile.
i zagospodarowaniu przestrzennym), which introduced the obligation plan pre- paring of metropolitan area, in its boundaries there were 8 poviats and 43 gminas (Ossowicz, Polański, 2005). The area consists of Wrocław, which is the central city, two medium-size towns, Oleśnica and Oława, and 18 small towns. Wrocław as a central point of the metropolitan area has a high degree of urbanization and industrialization. To the local centers there should be included Oława, Oleśnica, Trzebnica, Milicz, Kąty Wrocławskie, Brzeg Dolny, Środa Śląska, Wołów, and Sobótka (Fig. 2). In the metropolitan area the dominant role belongs to Wrocław, where live 60% of all the population of the agglomeration. In the 1990s in the area of this agglomeration the structure of employment was changed. The main trends in Wrocław include decline in production activities and the increase in the number of workers employed in trade and services. In selected gminas surrounding Wrocław increased while the share of working in manufacturing operations (Jelcz-Laskowice, Brzeg Dolny, Kąty Wrocławskie) and maintains a high share of employed in trade and services. In the gminas of away from the centre there is a decrease in the number of working in a productive activity. Those changes show that a given spatial-economic structure has been built up, in which the central city and the surrounding towns have formed peculiar socio-economic profiles. Between Wrocław and the surrounding areas a network of contacts has been created due to which the process of the metropolitan development is present, which influences in a much bigger degree the development of the metropolitan area. The number of realized so far, as well as the projected changes allows to specify Wrocław as the city of high dynamics of changes in the structure. Those changes concern almost all spheres of life: communication infrastructure, services, building of dwelling-houses, green belt, and others. The spatial- economic structure of the Wrocław Metropolitan Area is the result of long-term accumulation of agglomeration effects and deglomeration processes (Korenik, Rogowska, 2007). Small and medium-size towns developing in the surrounding of Wrocław and the whole metropolitan area are of great importance.
The five demographic extrapolation methods for projecting housing units and population utilized by the model were Linear, Exponential, Constant Share, Share-of-Growth and Shift-Share. The Linear and Exponential techniques employ a bottom-up approach, extrapolating the historic housing units for each census tract with no consideration for the county’s overall growth. The Constant Share, Share-of-Growth and Shift-Share techniques employ a ratio allocation, or top- down approach, allocating a portion of the total projected county population or growth to each census tract based on that tract’s percentage of county population or growth over the historical period. Each of the five methods is a good predictor of growth in different situations and growth patterns, so using a combination was the best way to avoid the largest possible errors resulting from the least appropriate techniques for each census tract (Sipe and Hopkins 1984). This ap- proach is similar to the one BEBR uses for its county population forecasts.
5.2.3 Tatarstan: The Language Policy. The Tatar Language.
Tatarstan is home to only 36% of Tatars of all Russian Tatars. According to the National Population Census of 2002 73% of Tatars in Russia speak their native language.
In early 1990-s Tatarstan invested a lot in widening the domain of the Tatar language functioning both in and outside the Republic. Realizing the Law on Languages (1996), Tatarstan Parliament (State Council) worked out and adopted “State Programme of the Republic of Tatarstan on Preservation, Improvement, Studies and Development of the Peoples of the Republic of Tatarstan” (1994), the Government of the Republic established the Committee on Realization the Law of the Republic of Tatarstan “Ɉn Languages of Peoples of the Republic of Tatarstan” (1996) and seven public commissions in charge of functional extension of the Tatar language ( e.g. Codification and Language standards in different areas, Tatar in Information Technologies etc.). Issues of the Tatar language provision in every school of the Republic were supervised by a specially appointed Principal deputy accountable to the corresponding district Educational Department. Every district of the Republic of Tatarstan worked out and realized its own programme on the language development, districts administrations ( including the capital – the city of Kazan) set up Departments on Ethnic Affairs and Funds of languages and cultures development of all the peoples living on the territory.
Perhaps the most exciting opportunity for promoting research and development activities in Denton is the growing list of investments and activities at Discovery Park at the University of North Texas. Discovery Park occupies a 550,000 square foot former Texas Instruments facility and is home to the UNT College of Engineering, College of Information, the PACCAR Technology Institute, and will soon host a technology-focused business incubator. Laboratory equipment at Discovery Park is already setting new standards for research capacity. Currently, the College of Engineering owns a focused ion beam microscope, a transmission electron microscope, and a local electrode atom probe. No other industry or academic lab in the world is using all three of these devices together for research. The atom probe is one of only two probes in the nation owned by a university. UNT also boasts the Talon Research High-Performance Computing System as a part of its research infrastructure since 2009. This supercomputer allows research across many disciplines access to supercomputer-level computational capacity that is supporting research in engineering, materials science, aeronautics, carbon sequestration, and experimental music. A clean room for specialized component materials is also under development.
In contrast to this decline, strong population growth will also take place; particularly in the west of the Netherlands. Strong growth regions are found in both the northern and southern wings of the Randstad. The northern wing includes Greater Amsterdam and the surrounding Zaanstreek and Flevoland. The Utrecht region is also expected to achieve growth of almost 10% up to 2025. The southern wing of the Randstad includes the The Hague Agglomeration and the adjacent Delft and Westland regions. Clear growth is also expected in the regions surrounding the city of Rotterdam (Greater Rijnmond, and the eastern and south-eastern parts of South Holland). However, strong population growth will not only be limited to the Randstad. Powerful centres of growth are also expected in the intermediary zone (the area between the Randstad and the periphery of the Netherlands), such as north Overijssel (centred on Zwolle), Arnhem/Nijmegen and the centre and east of the province of North Brabant. In the north of the Netherlands, ‘Overig Groningen’ (the region centred on the municipality of Groningen) also shows strong growth. All in all, there are 24 COROP regions with an expected population growth of over 2.5%. The population growth in centres of growth in and around the Randstad is largely the result of the attractiveness of these regions as a place to live, both to national and international migrants (De Klerk, 2010; Latten and Kooiman, 2011). These are centres of technological innovation and leading businesses, and they attract students, single people and highly-educated people.
Another large Aboriginal community, established as a government settlement in the centre of a 2200 km2 Aboriginal Reserve in the early 1950s, is Yuendumu. It is located on the edge of the Tanami desert 300 kilometres to the northwest of Alice Springs. According to the Welfare Branch records, the Yuendumu population was reported as 459 persons by 1960, 758 persons in 1965 (Long, 1970: 200) and 900 by 1970. In 1978 the Aboriginal population of the township was reported as 1,170, according to the Health Centre records, and there were about 100 Europeans (Young, 1981 a:63). Contrary to these figures, the census figure for 1981 is very much lower and gives an Aboriginal population of 587 persons (ABS, 1981 Census: NT, Table CAB01). This discrepancy is due to poor census enumeration (Young, 1981a) and the ‘outstation movements’ of the Aboriginal people which gained impetus during the 1970s and resulted in the relocation of many Aboriginal people in small settlements on their traditional lands, but usually still within the large reserves or Aboriginal-leased pastoral properties or excisions from pastoral properties. Yuendumu lies in the western Anmatyerre boundary and the majority of its population in the early years were Warlpiri who came from distant areas, some Anmatyerre, and later (1964) some Pintubi people who arrived at the settlement (Young, 1981a:61-62).
Iowa and Colorado, are consistently listed among the top send- ing neighboring states for both periods. However, for the latest period, more of the Mexican-origin population left Nebraska for Iowa than moved in from Iowa. The opposite has hap- pened for Colorado for the period of 2008-2012. Among the non-neighboring states, the largest “feeders” of Mexican-origin movers continue to be California and Texas. Nonetheless for the period of 2008-2012, the Mexican-origin population coming from these states to Nebraska has decreased, almost reaching the numbers of those who are moving out to these states (See Table 1). Mexican movers from Arizona, which was not a typical state of prior residence among Mexican-origin movers in 2000, increased the most in the last decade.
49 naselja, kako ukupno, tako i pojedinačno, dominira također sekundarni sektor s 55,9 % 2011. godine te u dvije promatrane godine bilježi relativno najmanju promjenu od -0,8 % (apsolutno -124 zaposlenih). Očekuje se rast udjela tercijarnog sektora u sljedećem međupopisnom razdoblju jer je Ivanec dobio nekoliko vrijednih nagrada. Godine 2016. dobio je BFC znak (Business Friendly Certificate in South East Europe) koji se dodjeljuje gradovima s povoljnim poslovnim okruženjem u Jugoistočnoj Europi. Britanski poslovni časopis „Financial Times“ uvrstio je Ivanec u top deset mikrogradova u Europi koji su poticajni za strana ulaganja, a također nosi titulu „pametnoga grada“ (Smart City) koju je dobio na konferenciji „Gradovi budućnosti 2016. godine“ zahvaljujući radu Projektnog ureda Grada Ivanca. Sve je to rezultat rada tvrtke Poslovna zona Ivanec d.o.o. koja razvija Poslovnu i Industrijsku zonu površine 531 000 m 2 s velikom površinom za poslovne namjene. Osim toga, Poslovna zona-istok razvija malo i srednje poduzetništvo na površini od 231 000 m 2 , a investitorima je privlačna zbog mnogobrojnih povlastica i olakšica (Miljan, 2016).
The time series of the index of ageing of the Podluží microregion was ﬁ tted using a line (y’ = 1.643 x + 74.17). The time series of the ageing index development of the South-Moravian region was ﬁ tted also by a line (y’ = 2.712 x + 70.22). The prediction of the mid-year population for 2009 is 100.5 for the Podluží microregion and 113.6 for the South-Moravian region. Thus, the Podluží microregion increased from a value of 76 up to a value of 100. Also in the future, it is possible to expect the growth of values of this indicator. The problem of population ageing is related to a number of measures, which have to be carried out in order to precede many negative impacts (eg, the old-age pension system and the ﬁ eld of health service). At the regional level, it is necessary to select the suitable capacity of public domiciliary services and health and educational institutions.
Europe. During the second half of the century, world population may even eventually peak and start to reduce slightly, depending largely on how fast fertility levels in Africa fall to moderate levels. Rapid population growth creates an urgent need for expanding education in Africa. Education expansion must keep pace with the pressure coming from rapid population growth, as it holds the key to accelerating the demographic transition and bringing development successes within reach. Achieving such goals depends, in particular, on giving girls access to education, as education and family planning are closely intertwined. Education broadens horizons and helps bring fertility into the realm of conscious choice for both women and men. Evidence from educational sub- populations within countries indicates that higher living standards and decisions for moderate fertility levels accompany higher education
ceremony. Because a significant number of these early marriages are not statistically recorded, the official median age at first marriage in the Eastern provinces is higher than in reality. As a result of the high social significance of marriage as an institution, divorces play a lesser role: even the ten million Metropolis Istanbul registered in 1994 only about 6.000 divorces (with a third of Istanbul’s population, Berlin experienced 8.000 divorces in the same year), whereas in the Southeastern provinces official divorces almost never take place. Nevertheless, the Turkish Statistical Institute reported for Istanbul 20.679 divorces in 2006 and 30.773 divorces in the first quarter of 2010 – an enormous rise over a short time span. Spatial Population Dynamics and Urbanisation
key determinant for human capital acquisition, the probability that children survive until adult- hood primarily affects fertility behavior. The empirical evidence discussed in the introduction also suggests somewhat different determinants for these two distinct concepts of life expectancy. Child survival seems primarily determined by the possibility to avoid diseases, that is the avail- ability of adequate and sufficient nourishment and an environment that prevents or facilitates infectious diseases. Adult longevity, in turn, appears to rather depend on the ability to cure diseases, that is the level of medical knowledge, the availability of surgery and other medical treatments that allow to repair physical damage and extend the aging process. Reis-Soares (2005) reports evidence that suggests that adult longevity is barely affected by improvements in income or nutrition, but is rather related to ’structural’ factors that depend on the knowledge available in a society. Ample empirical evidence suggests that better knowledge about diseases and better technological conditions as well as public policies help to avoid or cure them, thereby reducing mortality (see Mokyr, 1993, Schultz, 1993 and 1999, Easterlin, 1999). Empirical find- ings also suggest that income, wealth and particularly the level of education affect mortality and health, see Mirovsky and Ross (1998) and Smith (1999), and that a better educated society also invents and adopts more and better drugs ( Lichtenberg, 1998, 2002, 2003). Taken together, the evidence implies that the level of knowledge and the amount of human capital is relatively more important for adult longevity than the level of development per se (reflected by, for example, the level of per capita income). In light of this evidence, we make the extreme assumption that adult life expectancy T t increases in the amount of human capital embodied in a generation, reflecting its level of knowledge. 30 We formalize this positive externality by linking a generation
Under a 100% (High) replacement assumption, a 6.9% increase in population is forecast by 2036. If there is no replacement and the Medium HS model assumptions hold, the changes from the 2011 population are -9.5% by 2016 to -44.7% by 2036.
The Northern Peninsula 2011 age structure is similar to that of the Labrador Straits in that it is a region with low birth rates and increasing longevity (Figure 3.21). However, with its larger population the region can maintain its 2011 population level and even grow slightly if the retiree replacement is at least 70% (Table 3.5 and Figure 3.20). If the HS trends persist and there is no replacement strategy, the population will decline and will also become dominated by age cohorts 50 years and greater. Under this scenario, the region will not be able to maintain its 2011 population level. Since both models contain the same birth and death rates, the gap between the NS and Medium HS outcomes can be interpreted as aging and migration effects on the estimates (Figures 3.22 and 3.23). For example, the percentage differences between the Medium HS and the NS 20-35 cohort projections for 2026 and 2036 are -29% and -55%