Africa suggest that higher temperatures, increase in the number of heat-waves, and increasing aridity, will affect the rain fed agricultural systems. Without the carbon fertilization effect, climatechange will reduce the mean yields for 11 major global crops – millet, eld pea, sugar beet, sweet potato, wheat, rice, maize, soybean, groundnut, sunflower and rapeseed – by 15% in Sub-Saharan Africa, 11% in Middle East and North Africa by 2050. Desertification has led to reduction in agricultural productivity and incomes; it has also contributed to the loss of biodiversity in many dryland regions. It is further projected to cause reductions in crop and livestock productivity, modify the composition of plant species and reduce biological diversity across drylands. In sub-Saharan Africa particularly, crop production may be reduced by 17–22% due to climatechange by 2050. About 821 million people globally were food insecure in 2017, of whom 31% were in Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly East Africa, had the highest share of undernourished populations in the world in 2017, with 28.8% and 31.4%, respectively. In North Africa, long-term monitoring (1978–2014) has shown loss of important perennial plant species due to drought and desertification e.g. Stipa tenacissima and Artemisia herba alba. Desertification alongside pressures from climate variability and anthropogenic climatechange will contribute to poverty, food insecurity, and increased disease burden, as well as potentially to conflicts. Climatechange will amplify water scarcity, with negative impacts on agricultural systems, particularly in semi-arid environments of Africa. There is increasing poverty levels in drylands of Sub- Saharan Africa where 41% of the total population live in extreme poverty. For eastern Africa, both recent droughts and decadal declines have been linked to human-induced warming. There is high confidence that many oases of North Africa are
By removing the noise from the NDVI time series, EMD makes possible the integration of NDVI over time. NDVI is an index of Net Primary Productivity or production of biomass per unit area per unit time. Integration of the area under the NDVI curve produces an index of standing biomass per unit area (Tucker et al. 1981). Standing biomass more completely indicates the state of the permanent vegetation cover, including of trees, shrubs, and other perennials. Integrating EMD NDVI for each year will produce a time series of 20 data points for each pixel (Figure 3). The integrated EMD NDVI and 0.1º latitude-longitude rainfall estimates for Africa from NOAA (Herman et al. 1997) (Figure 3) and from University of California, Santa Barbara doctoral candidate Chris Funk will permit calculation of an index of rain use efficiency (Le Houerou 1984), or vegetation production per unit of rainfall (Figure 3). Mapping the slope of the linear regression of rain use efficiency over time will produce a second map revealing possible trends in desertification. Original field work on shifts in the ranges of forests species in Africa (next section) and any other field information documenting permanent vegetation changes will provide independent data to ground-truth the analysis of remote sensing data.
Research on the effects of climatechange on world agricultural markets is still relatively limited. Climatechange alters the comparative advantage, setting up the possibility of changes in trade flows as producers respond to changing opportunities. More generally, agricultural trade flows depend on the interaction between the inherent comparative advantage in agriculture, which is determined by climate and the resource endowments, and a wide-ranging set of local, regional, national, and international trade policies. Across Sub-Saharan Africa, little change in net cereal imports is expected as a result of climatechange because increases and declines in net cereal imports balance out. Regarding changes in net cereal trade across agroecological zones (Figure 7), Eastern Africa is projected to experience the largest increase in net cereal imports, at 15 percent, as a result of climatechange, probably due to the large decline in maize yields. For the Sudano-Sahelian zone, a steep decline in net cereal imports—6 percent—is also projected, again driven by changes in maize yields (see also Table 1).
There are three essential components for most human’s diseases: an agent (or pathogen), a host (or vector) and a transmission environment (Epstein 2001). For most climate- sensitive diseases, climatechange may impact the whole process of a disease’s development (WHO 2005) including the survival, reproduction, either distribution of disease pathogens and their hosts, as well as the availability and means of such pathogens transmission environments. For example, temperature increases impact the spread of malaria. Leeson (1939), and Patz and Olson (2006) revealed the influence of increasing temperature on the pathogen. Warmer ambient temperatures (between 25°C and 30°C) affect the Anopheles mosquitoes biological cycle by shortening its duration of mosquito larvae to 10 days instead to 20 to 30 days so increasing the transmission rate of malaria (Huang et al. 2011; Patz and Olson 2006) Likewise, decrease in rainfall will not only lead to competition among water resources management, but thus it will affect water quality and thereby increase the risk of water-borne pathogens. Heavy extremes rainfall on the other hand will increase incidence of water borne diseases (Smith et al. 2014; Stewart et al. 2004). It has been concluded that, many of the major killer diseases such as cholera, diarrhea, malaria, dengue and other infections carried by vectors are highly climate sensitive (Thomson et al. 2018; WHO 2018), and that if left unchecked, climatechange may indeed swell the population at risk of malaria in Africa by 90 million by 2030 (Fouque and Reeder 2019; Franklinos et al. 2019).
In the last couple of years, efforts have been made by governments in East Africa to improve adaptive capacity and resilience of farming communities. Several projects and policies have been initiated independently or embedded within National Development Plans (NDPs) and/or governmental departments. These projects and policies mainly aim at reducing the negative effects of climatechange are gaining momentum across different sectors and institutions. The projects are widely spread in various government ministries and institutions, NGOs, civil society and even the private sector albeit in an uncoordinated manner. Despite all these initiatives that run into millions of dollars, coming across an inventory of the projects and programs on climatechange and agriculture is still not easy. There is need for documentation of the current and planned initiatives to facilitate coordination, avoid duplication, and inform future projects and sharing of lessons (both successes and failures).
On top of the non-feedback climatechange effect, vegeta- tion feedbacks tend to cause a slight contraction of the rain belt around the Equator, and they impose a primarily coun- teractive effect on rainfall intensity compared to the climatechange alone simulation (NFB). For central Africa, the con- siderable decrease in rainfall intensity in the dry season leads to a slight equatorward shrinking of the rain belt (approxi- mately 2 ◦ ) and a shorter rainy season (on average 10 days, represented as a 4-day postponed onset and a 6-day earlier end). For southern Africa, strengthened convective precipi- tation results in a longer rainy season by on average 6 days. There is no pronounced effect for the Sahel regions except for some sparse changes over time and in some areas. To inves- tigate the effects on ITCZ location, we analysed the position of the intertropical front (ITF) with a meridional wind crite- rion (Sultan and Janicot, 2003) by examining the location of maximum vertical uplifting wind speed at 850 hPa over Sa- hel in July and over southern Africa in January. However, we did not find pronounced effects for ITF (not shown) suggest- ing that changes in the rain belt location for central Africa are mainly caused by changes in precipitation intensity rather than by changes in meridional circulation.
Population growth, political instability, and scarcity of resources are additional factors exacerbating the impacts of climatechange and hindering survival from hazards. Rural farmers hold small plots of land that do not allow them to earn enough income and feed their family. Furthermore, scarcity of grazing lands and water resources has been causing perpetual conflict amongst pastoral and non-pastoral communities in the region. It is important to emphasize that, in East Africa, all the ecological, cultural, social, economic and human problems are intensified by poverty. Rural communities of the region have limited access to basic infrastructure such as health and education facilities, communication services, markets, and credit and capital services. In sum, impacts of climatechange, when coupled with other factors, have become a new threat to the security and well being of rural communities in the region.
This study estimates of the impact of climatechange on yields for the four most commonly grown crops (millet, maize, sorghum and cassava) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). A panel data approach is used to relate yields to standard weather variables, such as temperature and precipitation, and sophisticated weather measures, such as evapotranspiration and the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The model is estimated using data for the period 1961-2002 for 37 countries. Crop yields through 2100 are predicted by combining estimates from the panel analysis with climatechange predictions from general circulation models (GCMs). Each GCM is simulated under a range of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) assumptions. Relative to a case without climatechange, yield changes in 2100 are near zero for cassava and range from –19% to +6% for maize, from –38% to –13% for millet and from –47% to –7% for sorghum under alternative climatechange scenarios.
Abstract. This review summarizes the impacts of climatechange on runoff in West Africa, assesses the uncertainty in the projections and describes future research needs for the region. To do so, we constitute a meta-database made of 19 studies and 301 future runoff change values. The future ten- dency in streamflow developments is overall very uncertain (median of the 301 points is 0 % and mean + 5.2 %), except for (i) the Gambia River, which exhibits a significant nega- tive change (median = − 4.5 %), and (ii) the Sassandra and the Niger rivers, where the change is positive ( + 14.4 % and + 6.1 %). A correlation analysis revealed that runoff changes are tightly linked to changes in rainfall (R = 0.49), and to a smaller extent also to changes in potential evapotranspi- ration. Other parameters than climate – such as the carbon effect on plant water efficiency, land use dynamics or water withdrawals – could also significantly impact on runoff, but they generally do not offset the effects of climatechange. In view of the potential changes, the large uncertainty therein and the high vulnerability of the region to such changes, there is an urgent need for integrated studies that quantify the potential effects of these processes on water resources in West Africa and for more accuracy in climate models rainfall projections. We especially underline the lack of information concerning projections of future floods and droughts, and of interannual fluctuations in streamflow.
(GHG) are the biggest contributor to climatechange (Cook et al., 2016; IPCC, 2014b). A changing external environment and societal pressure are driving companies to respond to climatechange and limit further contribution where possible (Luo, Lan, & Tang, 2012). Despite carbon emissions still being largely unregulated and carbon disclosure not being mandatory, many companies in South Africa have voluntarily decided to reduce emissions and make disclosures to the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) (NBI, 2016). The CDP measures a company’s progress towards environmental stewardship and awards the company a score (CDP, 2016b). A company that has the highest score indicates to stakeholders that the company has a leadership progress to environmental stewardship. Understanding what drives good disclosure of climatechange might result in improved disclosure (Qian & Schaltegger, 2017), and thus contribute to tackling the “greatest challenge of our time” (DEA, 2016, p. 4). This claim motivates for this study to investigate what factors influence a South African company to achieve a high CDP score.
population growth and unemployment in the region among others in the aspect of the regional development of Africa. The devastation of the natural environment is on the rise. World’s population has been on the increase despite natural disasters that occur in diverse ways with implications for natural resources. In 2011, the percentage of urban population was 52.6 per cent against the rural population of 47.5 per cent (Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, 2014). However, the Food and Agriculture Organisation of United Nations in 2014 captured that in their data analysis at the regional levels Africa has the most significant rural populace in the world. That is to show how committed the people are in agriculture. Therefore, water and land resources are under severe pressure from the teeming population. The situation has gloomed the economic condition of those whose livelihood is dependent on those resources. The usual trade between African countries and other countries that rely on the supply of such resources drastically reduced because of the domestic issues in the region. The effect on the economy of some the African countries increased poverty level. The poverty gap for some African countries against national poverty from 2005 to 2012 was high. Hunger manifesting since the available resources can no longer sustain the majority of the people. During the International Conference on Lake Chad, African leaders, the Secretary- General Food and Agriculture Organisation of United Nations, representatives from United Nations, and others governmental agencies lamented the severe degradation of the African region, mainly the Lake Chad, by climatechange (Lake Chad Basin Commission, 2018).
production by region and by crop for Sub-Saharan Africa as well as changes in regional GDP and welfare between the 2050 no climatechange simulation and the 2050 (SRES B2) baseline simulation. According to the analysis, the world’s crop harvested area and food production decrease by 0.30 and 2.66 percent, respectively. The picture is similar for irrigated production: both area and production are projected to be lower, by 1.55 and 3.99 percent, respectively. Global rainfed production decreases by 1.65 percent, despite an increase in rainfed area of about 0.38 percent. The regional impacts of climatechange on rainfed, irrigated and total crop production vary widely. In Sub-Saharan Africa, both rainfed and irrigated harvested areas decrease when climatechange is considered (by 0.59 and 3.51 percent, respectively). Rainfed production, in contrast, increases by 0.70 percent, while irrigated production drops sharply, by 15.30 percent, as some of the irrigated crops, such as wheat, are more susceptible to heat stress and runoff available to irrigation declines significantly in some African basins. As a result, total crop harvested area and production in Sub-Saharan Africa decrease by 0.72 percent and 1.55 percent, respectively. Most of the decline in production can be attributed to wheat (24.11 percent) and sugarcane (10.58 percent). As a result, irrigated wheat might not be significant in the food production systems of Sub-Saharan Africa. Other crops in Sub-Saharan Africa actually do better because of climatechange and particularly CO 2
The Paris ClimateChange Agreement provides opportunity for Africa to maximize the benefits of agricultural productivity through “ecosystem-based adaptation-driven approaches”. The Paris Agreement promotes “a country-driven process to achieve” these goals. Through action on adaptation, Africa can achieve the Agreements aim of “strengthen[ing] the global response to the threat of climatechange, “in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty”. The Paris Agreement approach to adaptation and loss and damage is very encouraging and gladly enough, Africa has keyed into it. The Paris Agreement generally is a success for Africa but it still stands to be seen how these laudable provisions that are favourable to Africa will be translated into action. The Agreement is barely 16 months old, it is therefore too early to conclude on its gains in respect of Africa. The Paris Agreement remain viable platform for Africa to respond to climatechange impact. This article briefly mentions the Transparency Mechanism contained in the Paris Agreement which has been described as “the backbone of the Paris Agreement” and “the Paris Agreement’s key to success depends on hammering out the details to build a robust Transparency Mechanism”. Transparency is specifically provided for in Article 13 of the Paris Agreement which articulates an “enhanced transparency framework for action and support” which “established harmonized monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) requirements”. By this, the developed and developing nations are required to report every two years on their mitigation effort, and all parties will be subject to both technical and peer-review. An effective transparency mechanism will assist not only state parties of the developed countries but African countries to implement accurate and precise Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of greenhouse gas emissions.
It is recorded that only 3 per cent of total global energy consumption in 2005 (table 2), about 80 per cent of which was from biomass sources (lEA, 2015; Hall and Scrase, 2015). Per capita energy consumption in SSA is also lowest in the world less than half a ton ol oil equivalent (toe) compared to a world average per capita energy consumption that is more than four times that of SSA (table 2). With the exception of South Africa, use of electric power is very low across SSA (table 2) and only 8 per cent of the region’s rural population enjoys such access compared to much higher rates in the rest of the world (lEA, 2012). While these statistics decode to low emissions (table 2) and negligible share contribution to global warming and climatechange from SSA, they are pinpointing of high susceptibility and a formidable basic development challenge facing the region. The above-discussed development lags and challenges of overcoming the current gloomy state of social welfare in SSA propose that energy consumption (consequently emissions) in these countries is bound to grow to meet demands for defectively needed to haste economic growth for higher social wellbeing and poverty reduction. This implies hard tradeoffs between improved flexibility and adaptive capacity to be attained by accumulating sufficient economic, technological, and social (improved health and educational status) wealth through development, and the needed higher levels of energy and emissions to fuel such growth. Also as indicated above, this has important implications for what measures would be echo for SSA to take now in response to projected climatechange and thus adds to the uncertainty of what energy consumption path and development scenario to use for SSA over the next 50—100 years. 3.3 Uncertainty about impacts on and resilience of key ecosystems
Plant species distribution records are derived from the currently most comprehensive dataset on continental Africa, the Biogeographic Information System on African Plant Diversity (BISAP), established by the contribution of numerous experts and scientific institutions, and managed by the BIOMAPS working group at the Nees Institute. It comprises data of 16,448 species in 2,796 genera, represented by 354,288 records with varying precisions of locality information. The data originate from herbarium specimen, taxonomic revisions and digitized distribution maps. Species with very few collection localities (less than 5 data entries) and a spatial resolution of more than 0.5 degrees were excluded from the following analysis, resulting in 3,144 species and more than 70,000 individual data points (for further details see Küper et al., 2006; Sommer, 2008). Potential distribution ranges for all 3,144 individual species were derived from analyses conducted by Sommer (2008) at the Nees Institute for Biodiversity of Plants, University of Bonn. In this study, geographical distribution ranges were modelled using an envi- ronmental niche modelling approach (MaxEnt, Phillips et al., 2006). Five meaningful variables were used as environmental parameters: one is a proxy for topographic com- plexity, two are related to energy /temperature, and two refer to water availability, pro- vided by the Tyndall Center for ClimateChange Research (Mitchell et al., 2004). The dataset comprises climate data at 0.5 degree resolution for a reference dataset (1960- 1990) as well as for five different general circulation models. This study focuses on the HadCM3 model, with a dataset from the year 2000.
It is of great concern that climatechange and variability will seriously affect agro-biodiversity (Brooks et al. 2005). The highest damages from climatechange are predicted to be in the agricultural sector in sub- Saharan Africa. Agriculture is predicted to be especially vulnerable in this region because it already endures high heat and low precipitation, is a large fraction of the economy, and relies on relatively basic technologies (Pearce et al. 1996; McCarthy et al. 2001; Kurukulasuriya, and Mendelsohn 2006). Other related factors are postulated to be institutional and economic reforms linked to globalisation processes (e.g., removal of subsidies, increased import competition) which reduce the capacity of some farmers to respond to climate variability (O’Brien et al. 2004). Thus, efforts to reduce vulnerability and facilitate adaptation to climatechange are influenced both positively and negatively by changes associated with globalisation (Eakin and Lemos 2006; Easterling et al. 2007). It is on these grounds that climatechange is seen to be one of several factors that may affect global food production and genetic production in the near future (Reilly 1999).
Climatechange impact assessment on hydrologic regime is performed by comparing the various processes of the hydrologic cycle between historical and future time horizons. To this end, the pre-calibrated model is forced with bias corrected historical and future climate data. The climate data for historical (1985-2005) and two scenario periods, mid-century (2041-2070) and end-century (2071-2100), have been used from an ensemble of nine regional climate models (Table 3-4). The RCMs are part of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Two different emission scenarios are considered namely, rcp4.5 (moderate emission scenario) and rcp8.5 (high emission scenario). The available data under CORDEX project are grouped into 14 domains which encompassed most of the land surfaces throughout the globe (Chilkoti et al., 2017). The present study area lies within the domain-4 known as Africa (AFR) and the data related to the corresponding domain has been gathered from the climate models having the resolution of 0.44° x 0.44° (50 km x 50 km approximately). The climate projection contains numerous climatic variables. However, according the input requirement of the hydrological model, only precipitation, maximum and minimum near surface air temperature have been
‘urban development as being a large creator of risk for much of the urban population, most especially the urban poor who live in more hazardous physical and human environments along the coast’ . Thus, by extension, local manifestations of climatechange are more likely to seriously compromise the vulnerability of urban resident since the viability and productivity of existing food pro- duction systems in many parts of Africa will be affected . The concept of vulnerability, according to Kelly and Adger, implies the ‘ability and inability of individuals and social groupings to respond to, in the sense of cope with, recover from or adapt to, any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being’ . Inherent in this defi- nition is the identification, adoption and implementation of policy-relevant, robust recommendations and conclu- sions relevant to immediate and long-term needs of the people concerned. To this end, the next section looks at Africa’s increasing urbanisation, vulnerability and adap- tation of UA to climatechange. The paper will, however, begin by first setting out the meaning of two important themes which run concurrently throughout this paper: food (in)security and climatechange.
This thesis is divided into six chapters. Chapter one will be introductory; it provides a background for the ideas to be discussed in this thesis. This chapter will address the concept of climatechange and its scientific basis. An understanding of the scientific basis of climatechange is important in knowing why climatechange is a problem and why the world must act to tackle this problem. This will then be followed by a discussion of the legal framework governing climatechange. This chapter also highlights the research methodology to be adopted and the scholarly significance of this research work. Chapter Two will be an analysis of CDM and REDD+ implementation in Africa; it will also contain an analysis of the proposed carbon tax in South Africa and NAMA design. Chapter Three will deal with the evolution of emissions trading as a policy instrument and its theoretical framework. It will also present the potential benefits of the policy and its viability in the African context. Chapter Four will present possible downsides of implementing an emissions trading scheme in Africa. Chapter Five will discuss ETS success stories, along with lessons from ETS reviews. Chapter Six concludes the arguments in the thesis.