Abstract:In this work, we investigate the determinants of the Greek Business Cycle in the time period 1995-2014. To this end, we make use of a wide dataset in a quarterly format, which contains all the major macroeconomic and financial variables that have had a certain impact on the Greek economy. We apply a number of relevant econometric techniques such as filtering, Fourier analysis, white noise tests, unit root tests, structural breaks tests, backward regression and rolling windows analysis. Our findings show that the Greek business cycle exhibits two structural breaks, one in 2004 (Q3) and one in 2011(Q4). In the sub- period 1995-2004, the 10-year bond-yields and the elections were found to have a pro-cyclical character on the Greek Business Cycle, while the formation of EMU was found to have a counter-cyclical effect. In the time period 2005-2012, Greek credit and imports were found have a strong pro-cyclical impact, while the overall EU-17 Business Cycle and the Troika had a countercyclical impact on the Greek economy. Further research on the implications of the Greek crisis for other countries would be important.
In terms of movements in the aggregate pattern, a number of writers have stressed the role of international factors, such as movements in world trade and passages into qualitatively different phases of economic development. The latter has been emphasised by Cronin (1979), Gordon, Edwards and Reich (1982) and by Screpanti (1987). In these approaches the role of political factors assumes that of responses to deeper seated economic changes and that whilst governments can and do respond in different ways to these broader factors which may exacerbate or militate against overt conflict it is these broader changes which are the critical precipitating condition. To illustrate this point, the period from 1968-1973 was one of hightened levels of strike activity in most West European economies (Crouch and Pizzomo 1978) although the magnitude differed between countries. The factors contributing to the ’strike wave’ are generally cited as a slowdown in world trade from the mid 1960’s clashing with workers expectations of continued prosperity leading to a gap which the lack of ’headroom’ previously provided by economic growth was unable to satisfy. The impact of these factors was strengthened further by attempts at wage restraint and restrictive legislation (at least in the UK) and heightened grievances. In the UK other factors, the spread of shop steward organisation and the weaknesses of regulatory mechanisms together with organisational responses to the changing environmental contexts served to further increase the likelihood of conflict arising.
Based on the above conclusions as well as the study’s expressed concerns over the success of diversification, the approach that could ensure economic growth and prosperity for the GCC countries seems to be the integration in the world economy through attracting FDI inflows. According to Beblawi (2011), the direct investment of capital by foreign companies in the GCC countries (along with all the other benefits that FDI brings), can indeed be the beginning of a successful transition to a diverse economy that can fill the gap in revenue resulting from a scaled back reliance on oil exploration and exportation. In addition, Beblawi noted that integration into the world economy would limit the ability of oil revenues to quickly crowd out any other economic activity (Beblawi, 2011).
Understanding the nature of national savings behavior is critical in designing policies to promote savings and investment which in turn enhance economic growth through capital formation. This paper empirically examines the determinants of savings in Tanzania for the 1970-2010 period. The conceptual framework for the paper is derived from the life-cycle/permanent income hypothesis. Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests are used to test stationarity of all time series. To test long-run relationship of the variables, Johansen test is applied. The results reveal that disposable income, real GDP growth, population growth and life expectancy have a positive impact on savings in Tanzania. The results also reveal that inflation, has a negative impact on national savings. Furthermore, the paper establishes the direction of causality between national savings and economic growth. The results on this causal relationship suggest that real GDP growth causes national savings and not otherwise. This implies that that policies geared towards real GDP growth rate should be given first priority if the national savings trend is to be enhanced over time. Furthermore, from a policy point of view the precautionary motive for saving is not supported by the findings as inflation which captures the degree of macroeconomic volatility has a negative impact on savings in Tanzania.
maintained reserves to manage exchange rates and fluctuation costs in the international trade and settlement cost. However, the effect of fixed exchange rate policy is that there is a currency fluctuation due to the impact of the forces of demand and supply. Schumpeter (1911) stated that in the above scenario, demands lead and supply follows. The need for the study arise as a result of the conclusion of Gokhale & Raju (2013) that reserves are not used to tame foreign exchange rate fluctuations but to fight against global financial crisis, as well as attracting foreign direct investments. Therefore, external reserves can be used to secure a position in international trade finance and for the prevention of foreign exchange rate fluctuation if the country adopts a fixed interest rate. After the fall of the Bretton Woods system in 1970, most countries adopt the flexible exchange rate system with some theories such as the signaling or vulnerability indicator theory, exchange rate policy etc. For more than four decades of study by scholars in the field of external reserves and foreign exchange rate and reserves modelling with risk aversion theory have not been on quantitative research in Nigeria. Scholars in this field of study had always adopted foreign exchange theories, but this study seeks other theories likely to play significant impact of foreign exchange rate and external reserves in Nigeria. Also, there had been no model to link foreign exchange rate, external reserves, inflation rate, interest rate, import and export with the theory of production and risk aversion on an ordinary least square regression. Given the foregoing, In spite of the importance of external reserves in Nigeria, foreign exchange rate and external reserve models have not been in the mainstream of quantitative researches in Nigeria. Research in Nigeria had looked at the impact of foreign exchange rate and external reserves with BDC rate on monthly data (Ngozi et al, 2016), the need for this study is to empirically investigate the determinants of foreign exchange rate in the Nigerian context using external reserves and other variables on a risk aversion and production theory. The uniqueness of this study is the application of variables and data used.
The paper is based on quantitative research design and a descriptive cross sectional times series analysis. The empiricalinvestigation of the effect of price, investment, financial development, government activities and trade openness on economic growth is performed by first examining the unit root properties of the time series variables using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (1981) (ADF) and the Kwiatkowski et al. (1992, KPSS) as the confirmatory test for the ADF test. Secondly, the long run and the short-run links among the variables are examined using the ARDL model (Pesaran, & Shin, 1999; Pesaran, Shin, & Smith, 2001). Since the ADF, KPSS, and the ARDL models are popular in the literature they are not treated in detail in the current paper. For detail review of the these models refer to Ofori et al. (2015), Antwi-Boateng (2015) and Acaravci and Ozturk (2012). The ADF test is as specified in equation (1).
The Telecommunication industry, especially the equipment part of the industry is the second largest in world (next to China) and therefore has attracted considerable FDI in the manufacture of handsets leading to the employment of skilled manpower (Mani, 2008). FDI share in Telecommunication was highest in 2006-07 it fluctuates upto 2011-12 and shows decline in share in 2012-13 due to new projects of both private sector and government had been falling. Policy issues such as in telecom spectrum allocations have also played a major role in the decline of FDI share (Economic Survey, 2013). In the service sector, the Hotels and Restaurants still remain significant. From 2005-06 to 2006-07 it shows decreasing trend and remain stagnant in 2007-08 and 2008-09. It shows tremendous decline in 2009-10 due to global economic crisis. FDI inflows to the services sector (top five sectors including Hotels and Restaurants) have slowed down in 2009-10 (Bhardwaj, 2013). It attracted more share of FDI in 2012-13 due to tremendous increase in tourism and tourism sector increased by a very high 328 per cent over the corresponding period in the previous year (Economic Survey, 2013).
After the detection of long run elasticity of supply offense function against violence, short run elasticities are mentioned in Table 9. In short run all variable shows insignificant impact on violent crime rate. However deterrence variable and education shows negative and insignificant impact on violent crime rate while remaining variables shows positive but insignificant impact on violent crime rate. Lance and Enrico (2004) argue that education raises the opportunity cost of crime by raising the abilities of individual and skills in lawful market. Benefits of education are not only the benefits of an individual but also social benefits. Another similar result is consistent with the data of US prisoner population in 1996. Table 9 shows the coefficient of speed of adjustment is negative and significant, which shows the strong evidence regarding convergence to long run equilibrium. The coefficient value of ECM −0.62 is negative which shows that “in every year 62% of the error is adjusted in the previous year and 62% of the short run fluctuations are acceptable in long run trend.”
the productivity of capital through improved competition, positive technological externalities, and accelerated spillover effects. Otepola (2002) examines empirically examined the impact of FDI on growth and he concluded that FDI contributes significantly to economic growth, especially Li and Liu (2005), by using a single equation and simultaneous equation techniques, examined the relationship between FDI and economic growth on a panel data for 84 countries for the period 1970–1999, and found a positive impact of FDI on economic growth through its interaction with human capital in developing countries, but a egative impact of FDI on economic growth through its interaction with the technology gap. Also Getinet and Hirut (2006) studied the nature and determinants of foreign direct investment in Ethiopia over the period 1974-2001. This finding lization of the trade and regulatory regimes, stable macroeconomic and political environment, and major improvement in infrastructure are essential to attract FDI to In contrast, some theories predict that FDI will hurt ow growth. In a recent survey of the literature (Hanson, 2001) argues that evidence that FDI generates positive spillovers for host countries is weak especially in developing countries. Also in a review of micro data on spillovers from foreign-owned to domestically owned firms (Gorge and Greenwood, 2002) concludes that the effects In the standard Solow type growth model based on the neoclassical approach, FDI enables host countries to achieve investment that exceeds their own domestic saving INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL
times of shock. The effect of credit, market, and other risks on the institution's financial condition should be considered when evaluating the adequacy of capital. The asset quality rating reflects the quantity of existing and potential credit risk associated with the loan and investment portfolios, other real estate owned, and other assets, as well as off-balance sheet transactions. The management refers to the capability of the board of directors and management, in their respective roles, to identify, measure, monitors, and controls the risks of an institution's activities and to ensure a financial institution's safe, sound, and efficient operation in compliance with applicable laws and regulations is reflected in this rating. The earnings reflect not only the quantity and trend of earnings, but also factors that may affect the sustainability or quality of earnings. The quantity as well as the quality of earnings can be affected by excessive or inadequately managed credit risk that may result in loan losses. The liquidity refers to the current level and prospective sources of liquidity compared to funding needs, as well as to the adequacy of funds management practices relative to the institution's size, complexity, and risk profile. Finally, the sensitivity to the market risk component reflects the degree to which changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, commodity prices, or equity prices can adversely affect a financial institution's earnings or economic capital.
The interest rate spreads (measured as the difference be- tween deposit and lending rates) not only indicate the level of inefficiency of the banking sector but show the level of development of the financial system. Bank inter- est rate spreads have several important implications for growth and development of any economy. Specifically high interest rate spreads tend to discourage potential savers and thus limiting the quantum of funds available to potentials investors. A reduction in lending arising from low savings often leads to low investment and thus the economic growth rate [1-3]. Incidentally, interest rate spreads in Nigeria increased by a large amount over the study period 1 . However, not many studies have been un- dertaken to analyze the main factors underlying the high interest rate spreads in the country. There is the need to fill this gap. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to investigate the issue of the determinants of interest rate spreads in Nigeria.
Regarding how violence might be affecting people’s decision on where to live, there has been some work on how city growth and/or size have been impacted by crime rates. One seminal paper is Cullen and Levitt (1999), where they investigate how population size has responded to violence in the USA. Their findings suggest that each additional reported crime is associated with a roughly one-person decline in city population. Although migration is the main part in explaining city size, it is not the only part as birth and death rates play also their role at city size. In order to overcome this shortcoming, the authors also estimate how violence impacts net migration and results remained the same. However, their main drawback is the fact that they do not have information on origin and destination of movers. Therefore, their paper cannot address directly how origin and destination are affected by crime rates. Another example of this literature is Da Matta, Deichmann, Henderson, Lall and Wang (2007) in which they estimate what are the determinants of city growth in Brazil. Among those determinants, violence is one variable investigated. Their outcomes suggest that crime rates affect negatively city growth, showing that places experiencing higher violence tend to grow at a lower rate. Nevertheless, it is important to mention that they do not address specifically migration on their paper, since they use only city size as the previous paper mentioned in this paragraph.
Regarding how violence might be affecting people’s decision on where to live, there has been some work on how city growth and/or size have been impacted by crime rates. One seminal paper is Cullen and Levitt (1999), where they investigate how population size has responded to violence in the USA. Their findings suggest that each additional reported crime is associated with a roughly one-person decline in city population. Although migration is the main part in explaining city size, it is not the only part as birth and death rates play also their role at city size. In order to overcome this shortcoming, the authors also estimate how violence impacts net migration and results remained the same. However, their main drawback is the fact that they do not have information on origin and destination o f movers. Therefore, their paper cannot address directly how origin and destination are affected by crime rates. Another example of this literature is Da Matta, Deichmann, Henderson, Lall and Wang (2007) in which they estimate what are the determinants o f city growth in Brazil. Among those determinants, violence is one variable investigated. Their outcomes suggest that crime rates affect negatively city growth, showing that places experiencing higher violence tend to grow at a lower rate. Nevertheless, it is important to mention that they do not address specifically migration on their paper, since they use only city size as the previous paper mentioned in this paragraph.
Most of the resource-rich developing countries, especially since the 1990s, have adopted policies intending to attract multinational corporations to the extractive sector and the general economy. Owing to such policy reforms, rent-seeking behavior seems to have gradually disappeared from these economies, improving the efficiency of resource use. Boschini et al. (2007) argue that institutions and the type of natural resources a country possesses are key determinants of whether it has a resource curse and show that exhaustible resources such as gold, diamonds and oil are likely to have a negative effect on economic growth in countries with weak institutions. Kolstad (2009), using Sachs and Warner's (1997) dataset, shows that only private institutions matter. In fact, most developing countries have been working to improve the quality of the rule of law, such as law enforcement and protection of private property rights, with the help of donors and international organizations since the 1990s. The initiatives aim to encourage private sector participation in the economy. 1
Barro (2013) study looking at the relationship between health and economic growth acknowledged that economic growth as a topic has experienced a boom recently. He stated that this experience started with the work of Romer in 1986 and others, and they termed their work as new endogenous growth theories. Their studies focused on productivity advances which relied on technological progress and increased infusion of human capital from the point of education as the driving forces of economic growth. Other studies using the new endogenous approach included allowance for open economies, migration of persons, fertility choices and variable labor supply. They also included the roles of governments because they can maintain property rights, encourage free markets, taxation, education and public infrastructures. They also maintained that convergence property will still depend on the structure of the economy. Barro (2013) stated that if all economies are the same in terms of structure, except for their starting capital intensities, convergence is expected to happen. Poor countries would tend to grow faster than rich countries. However, if economies differ in various regards such as poor governmental policies, then the convergence force will only apply in a conditional term. The growth rate tends to be high if the starting per capita GDP is low compared to its intended long-run path. This idea stems from the fact that economies that have less capital per worker relative to their long-run capital per worker tend to have higher rates of return and higher growth rates.
Our paper makes several contributions to the relevant literature. First, by using a number of defined indicators we aim to more formally decouple structural reform process from perceived institutional quality. In other words, we aim at isolating the factors that matter for FDI, especially those related to the reforms and hence might be of direct relevance to policy makers. Second, we translate this approach into a systematic investigation of FDI determinants at the sectoral level. In other words, we are able to subject the institutional factors to sectoral dynamics associated with manufacturing and services FDI. So far, there has been very little inquiry into sectoral determinants of FDI and even less so on specific institutional components. Third, we estimate static as well as dynamic panel models while also making use of cross sectional analysis as a means to test robustness of our underlying findings. Fourth, we also consider a longer and more recent time period than most other available studies. Thus, our study explores the determinants of inward FDI to CEEC over the entire course of EU integration process. Previous studies have been limited either to initial years of transition or have considered very limited time periods. Finally, our study explicitly compares the institutional factor determinants of FDI in CEEC with an alternative sample of non-CEEC economies. This comparison adds a potentially important perspective on whether and how the basic institutional components differ between various Eastern European sub-regions.
multidisciplinary activity that involves several industries and draws upon a variety of skills, its benefits are spread over a wider section of society comparatively to other sectors of the economy (Telce and Finally tourism is contributed to overall production and employment creation in the are more contributions to the economy it is time to change the international competiveness among the others considering uplift of economic factors affecting to the ri Lanka has been implementing various projects to attract more tourist the economy. The Authority on World Travel & Tourism has forecasted Sri Lanka as a better place among the other Asian countries with respect to contribution of tourism industry to Gross Domestic production as shown in Figure1.In order to achieve, focused contribution to GDP, policy makers and private sector understand behavior of economic and non- economic factors affecting to tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka. The
Asarkaya and Ozcan (2007) examined determinants of capital structure of Turkish banking sector using data covering the period 2002–2006. They found lagged capital, portfolio risk, economic growth, average capital level of the sector and return on equity to be positively correlated with capital adequacy ratio. They also found share deposits negatively correlated with the capital adequacy ratio. Asarkaya and Zcan recommended banks with higher portfolio risk to carry more capital to provide a buffer against expected and unexpected losses. Another study by Çağlayan and Şak (2010) who examined the determinants of capital structure of banks in Turkey over the period 1992-2007 found size and market to book value have positive impact; whereas tangibility and profitability have negative impacts on the book leverage in all periods. Çağlayan and Şak confirmed the POT except the relationship with tangibility which weakly confirms the agency cost theory. Binici and Köksal (2012) surveyed the relation between leverage and asset growth in the Turkish banking sector. They found that size and profits are the main determinants of leverage. They also found a statistically significant positive relationship between these two variables. Binici and Köksal concluded that lowering the leverage ratio when asset growth of the banks is high, and raising it in the opposite case should contribute to smoothing credit/financial cycles.
The workings of IOS, that could at the same time serve as a narrative of what actually happened in Greece, may be summarized as follows: In non-competitive markets, the powerful civil servant and public corporation unions succeed in securing very high wages and incomes for their members. These wages lead, in turn, to very high prices for all state services (e.g., law and order, licensing, utilities, and almost all basic net- works (e.g., power, water and sewage, phone, garbage disposal, rail, sea transport, oil re- fineries, natural gas)). The latter are both basic inputs in the economy ’ s production process. Hence, this implies important factor allocation distortions that jeopardize total factor productivity and overall competitiveness. In competitive, by their very nature, markets, economic power is expressed through market regulation in such a way as to ensure minimum compensations and preferential tax treatments for the members of important professional associations (e.g., doctors, lawyers, notaries, engineers, pharma- cists). These closed professions are typically unionized and limit entry into their ranks, through a variety of institutional barriers to labor mobility. Most importantly, however, they enjoy special tax privileges that enables them to avoid taxes. Minimum compensa- tions work like the wages in the public sector and ΔΕΚΟ and preferential tax treat- ments increase disproportionally the tax burden of outsiders, leading likewise to lower total factor productivity and increased production costs throughout the economy. At the same time, the major political parties and government are influenced by the power- ful unions and professional associations. In such a way, these elites cooperate in the governance of the country to ensure their interests (e.g., financing wages and salaries, develop and maintain the underlying public infrastructure and obtain favorable market restrictions and tax exemptions). But all this results in relatively high taxes and/or budget deficits and government borrowing. This leads to further distortions in the economy, further reducing total factor productivity, output, and growth. In relatively low stages of development, the advent of IOS may promote growth. However, as the power of insiders grows stronger, the detrimental effect of the abovementioned distor- tions becomes dominant. At such a point, the stronger the power of insiders, the lower is the level of TFP.
The coefficient of EXR is positive and significant effect on real gross domestic product. The EXR plays an vital role in the economic development. The association among the EXR and economic growth is virtually an important challenge, from each a normative and perspective viewpoint. Several developing countries that have implicitly and explicitly constant their ER to the forex of another united states and whose inflation costs are high than that of the foreign united states often experience persistent current account deficits and eventual devaluations of their currencies, devaluation everyday invitations a recession and inflation and pushes the economic system into an inflation devaluation spiral; inflicting a extreme setback in economic growth. Other developing countries grow