After the foregoing mostly qualitative survey, it will be useful to look more closely at results from the energy economics literature. There we find addi- tional quantitative indications that tend toward the conclusion that oil supply is not strongly driven by prices, and furthermore, that demand is a very in- elastic function of price. For example, Gowdy and Juli´a  examine two mega-oilfields, one in the U.S. and one in the North Sea, and come to the conclusion that “technology temporarily increases the rates of production at the expense of more pronounced rates of depletion in later years.” Reynolds  uses a non-time-series approach to look at supply elasticity and concludes, “that cumulative discovery explains approximately 70 per cent of the quadratic Hubbert curve for discovery over time for the US lower 48 states, whereas the price of oil is an inelastic factor ...” These two investigations certainly do not represent a conclusive argument concerning the economics of fossilfuel supplies. They do, however, support the point of this paper, which is to con- centrate on one under-appreciated scenario, namely the possibility of fossil-fuel supply scarcity becoming a driving force in carbon dioxide emissions.
The above sections focused on examining the direct or out of pocket costs of subsidies. However, besides generating direct costs, subsidies also generate two types of indirect costs. First, since subsidies are distortions to energy prices, they result in individuals and firms misallocating resources and using too much energy and too little of other inputs. This in turn results in lower levels of GDP, since resources could otherwise be more efficiently used to produce more output. The difference in GDP between the observed world and the world without distortions is thus the indirect financial cost of fossilfuel subsidies. Second of all, since we use more fossilfuel energy when it is cheaper, we are also emitting too much carbon dioxide. The difference in emissions between scenarios where we pollute too much and the right amount is the environmental cost of subsidies. A huge advantage of the model- based methodology of extracting subsidies developed in RLS is that the model can be used to perform counterfactual experiments. In particular, (net) fossilfuel subsidies can be set to zero in all countries where they are positive, whilst keeping all other aspects of the countries unchanged. This then allows me to calculate a measure of the additional indirect financial and environmental costs of positive net subsidies by seeing the implications that the model with zero subsidies would have on emissions and GDP. 76 In the following section, I proceed to analyze these indirect costs. First, Figure 14 plots the
climate and the economy is beyond the scope here; many of these are extremely detailed and realistic in their focus than our present analysis. The paper by Leach (2007) is a particularly close relative of the current work— a numerically solved DGE model in the spirit of DICE. Weyant (1996) gives a detailed assessment and Weyant (2000) summarizes the main commonalities and di¤erences behind the most widely used models. A more recent comprehensive analysis (Clarke et al., 2009) is an overview of the EMF 22 International Scenarios of the ten leading integrated assessment models used to analyze the climate actions proposed in the current international negotiations. Speci…cally, they discuss the impact on the climate and the costs of the three policy initiatives: (1) the long-term climate target, (2) whether or not this target can be temporarily overshot prior to 2100; (3) and assessment of such impacts depending on when various regions would participate in emissions mitigation. For the US economy, Jorgenson et al. (2008) examine the e¤ect on the U.S. economy of predicted impacts in key market activities using a computable general equilibrium model with multiple sectors. McKibbin and Wilcoxen (1999) is another important multi-country, multi-sector intertemporal general-equilibrium model that has been used for a variety of policy analyses.
Some studies ﬁ nd that divesting from the production of fossil fuels has little impact on investors ’ ﬁ nancial performance (Trinks et al., 2018). Others suggest divestment either has a positive impact (Henriques & Sadorsky, 2018) or results in underperformance (Cornell, 2018). Public policy initiatives and NGOs are increasingly target- ing institutional investors to move their funds out of the fossilfuel industry, in the hope that this will help reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. 1 Further, there is an increasing probability of legislation banning the use of fossil resources, in which case the majority of fossilfuel reserves may become stranded assets, i.e. assets that have su ﬀ ered from unanticipated or premature write-downs, devaluations or conversion to liabilities. On the other hand, fossilfuel companies claim that the transition will take several decades and that fossil fuels will play a signi ﬁ cant role in the meantime. The purpose of our study is to investigate what happens to investors ’ ﬁ nancial performance in scenarios of delayed and smooth energy system transitions. This complements the emerging ‘ divestment debate ’ by relating it to di ﬀ erent pathways for the transition of the energy system. As such, this study is especially relevant for institutional investors and their stakeholders, as well as their regulators and supervisors.
Contemporary increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are in large part the result of anthropogen carbon dioxide emissions from fossilfuel combustion. Scenario analysis is commonly used to generate projections future carbon dioxide emissions, the resulting atmospheric concentrations and climate impact. In most scenar modelling published to date, carbon dioxide emission scenarios are based on demand-side (socioeconomic an technology) factors. The fossilfuel resource is assumed ample enough that supply-side factors do not drive futu emission scenarios. This review of the literature on non-renewable resource extraction rate modelling and empiric studies of the global fossilfuel resource base suggests this assumption is unsafe. Supply-side factors can be expecte to drive extraction rates and therefore carbon dioxide emissions as fossilfuel resources become significant depleted. It is likely that the future carbon dioxide emission trajectory will become dominated by supply-side facto during the 21st century. By omitting this possibility, most scenario analysis is too narrow. An implication of suc narrow scenario analysis is that policy driven by the UNFCCC’s agreement to “avoid dangerous climate change targets only demand-side factors to the exclusion of supply-side factors. As supply-side factors come to drive th carbon dioxide emission trajectory, policy focus should switch from demand-side factors to supply-side factors.
Koutsoyiannis et al. (2009a) described the chaos and un- certainty (internal variability) inherent in rainfall patterns and compared this to the rather more certain projections of pop- ulation growth and energy shortages. They suggested that planners should at least give increased consideration to en- vironmental, social and economic changes other than to cli- mate change alone. This supports a similar conclusion of Nel and Cooper (2009), who proposed that energy shortages will present a much greater problem than climate change. If the conventional projections of high fossilfuel growth prove im- possible, then there are profound implications for communi- ties. Apart from the significance this has for climate change uncertainty, energy is crucial to the global economy and hu- man wellbeing, and lower-than-projected energy availability suggests real limits to the global economy. Nel and van Zyl (2010) presented a new economic model that accounted for energy resource constraints, projecting a reduction in global GDP in the second half of the 21st century. Hamilton (2009) contended that the 2008 Global Financial Crisis was itself triggered by high oil prices. These factors, coupled with the relative certainty of ongoing global population growth, point to severe problems outside of climate change.
Long-term scenarios for mobility within cities usually neglect the challenge of energy supply and the ways in which the implied risks can affect urban mobility services. High levels of private transport and fossilfuel dependency tend to prevail in urban agglomerations of modern cities in many parts of the world. The concept of resilient mobility supports a new perspective of transportation solutions, based not only on questions, like how less energy can be consumed or how less CO2 can be emitted, but how vulnerable urban mobility is, in the light of fossilfuel dependency, in case there is a sharp increase of the oil price or even a supply disruption. There are factors within the social and geographical scope, which help understand mobility patterns and possible impacts in case there is a fossilfuel supply threat. The analysis of these additional factors can lead to new policy and planning approaches.
Traditionally fossil fuels have been use as the main resource to obtain energy but its use has several negative impacts, such as global warming and air pollution. Global warming has been mentioned has a key challenge to be addressed due to its expected grave consequences. Air pollution is another important problem and has been responsible for many health problems causing social and economic negative effects. However the use of fossil fuels has another strategic dimension when a sustainability perspective is considered, namely the preservation of natural resources, which is a goal of Circular Economy strategy. In this work fossilfuel energy consumption is analyzed in European countries as well as its relationship with other variables such as energy dependence and share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption. It was possible to conclude that many European countries still depend heavily on fossil fuels.
The purpose of the study is to investigate the relationship between government activities (proxied by government expenditures) and fossilfuel for the period 1971-2011 for Ghana, using annual time series data obtained from World Bank database. The empirical estimates was done by employing the Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), after the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Kwiatkowski-Philips-Schmidt- Shin (KPSS) tests have been used to analyse the unit root properties of the variables. The unit root test results indicate the variables are unit root in levels and not in first difference. The cointegration test result shows stable cointegration link between the variables. However, the long run estimate indicates insignificant positive effect of government activities on fossilfuel consumption, whereas, the short run estimate results of the study shows there is stable short run link between government activities and fossilfuel consumption. The policy implication of the findings is that government activities is not a policy tool in the management of fossilfuel consumption.
Since 2010, the government decided to remove fossilfuel subsidies and pay the revenue to the households in direct cash transfers. The goal of this policy was to replace energy subsidies with targeted cash payments. One of the most important goals was to achieve a more equitable distribution of income and to reduce poverty. It was expected that the cash subsidy will be more effective for the poor. This paper will numerically evaluate the impacts on income distribution and poverty. The poor may have higher purchasing power from cash transfers, while the rich may face a reduction in real income. However, the overall impacts on income are not clear without numerical calculations.
The model assumes that the marginal cost sets the price, thus excluding effects on the price by events such as armed conflicts, processing bottlenecks (e.g. refineries coming online and offline) and time delays associated to new projects coming online. While fossil-fuel price changes may not always immediately follow changes in the marginal cost in reality, differences are cyclical (due to the ability of firms to cross-subsidise and produce at a loss for a limited time) and the long-term trend is robust. Taxes and duties on fuels, which differ in every region of the world, are not included in Fig. 2 of the main paper, nor in the calculation of SFFA. E3ME includes end-user fuel prices from the IEA database, including taxes. The source for energy price data is the IEA. In the scenarios we do not explicitly include the phase-out of fossilfuel subsidies but the carbon price, when applied to fuels, effectively turns the subsidies into taxes. It is noted that some of the largest fuel subsidies are in countries that are energy exporters and that reducing or removing the subsidies would help support public budgets (although it increases pressure on households). End-user prices are updated during the simulation to reflect changes in fossil-fuel marginal costs from the fossilfuel supply model; however end-user prices are not used in the calculation of SFFA. Behavioural assumptions over production decisions have important impacts in this sub-model, described further below.
As well as noting the barriers, we also need to acknowledge the growing political momentum behind such a policy shift. We have already seen how several countries have taken bold national measures. Political tipping points to accelerate the demise of the global fossilfuel regime provide windows of opportunity to raise demands for such a treaty. Initiatives to reform fossilfuel subsidies are central to this question, as are contested but prevalent claims of peak oil, with even OPEC members making statements regarding the importance of diversifying their energy mixes. Indeed, countries such as Iran and Nigeria generate an appreciable share of elec- tricity from renewable energy sources and almost 5.4 GW of PV capacity is set to be added by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries by the ‘early 2020s’, according to a study by IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency) (Gi ﬀord, 2019 ). Further indicators of an emerging political tipping point away from fossil fuels might be the growing power of the divestment movement and moves from universities, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds to discontinue investments in these industries. This has been combined with greater pressure on companies to disclose their carbon assets and a wave of shareholder activism (Newell, 2008 ) as well as a broader de-legitimisation of fossil fuels, as cultural institutions in arts and music also seek to sever their ties to the indus- try. Market dynamics are also playing their part. The falling costs of solar in particular make renewables cost competitive with fossil fuels in many regions.
constructed institutional logics are embedded in both structural rules and normative definitions of appropriate behavior. In the case of divestment from fossil fuels, external formal laws (structural rules) bind the management of endowments for all colleges and universities. However, while mission statements are bound by some external normative definitions of what is appropriate for an institution of higher education, they are also internally generated and certain values may be emphasized more or less. In this case, actors place greater importance on the values within their mission than the market rules of financial management. When logics were in competition, those embedded in internally generated institutional values trumped those that were more externally imposed by other actors. Future research should investigate further instances of logic overlap and competition with an eye toward differences between formal structural rules and normatively powerful but less formal values.
E3ME has 43 sectors of production, 22 users of fuels, 12 fuels, and 59 regions. It uses a chosen set of 28 econometric relationships (incl. employment, trade, prices, investment, household consumption, energy demand) regressed over a corresponding high dimension dataset covering the past 45 years, and extrapolates these econometric relationships self-consistently up to 2050. E3ME includes endogenous technological change in the form of technology progress indicators in each industrial sector and fuel user, providing the source of endogenous growth. It is not an equilibrium model; it is path dependent and demand-led in the Keynesian sense. E3ME has been used in numerous policy analyses and impact assessments, for the European Commission and elsewhere internationally (for example, see [ 39-41 ]). Recent discussions of the implications on results of the choice of an economic
The value of stock exchanges in the market is one of the factors that have been considered in this study as a factor of energy consumption and consequently an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The transfer of funds for economic growth is driven by the stock market. Thus, the volume and value of stock market exchanges enable governments and the industry to increase their long-term financing for development and modernization of existing industrial units or the implementation of new projects, hence, Stock market participation plays a role in economic growth through its specific services (Agrawala and Tatyja, 2007). The relationship between economic growth (and hence foreign direct investment) and the environmental quality in a long-term context can either be direct, inverted, or a combination of both (Hissaudin and Changmin, 2010). Another factor that contributes to environmental pollution is the human development index. In this study, the number of students as the most important human factor in development, is considered as human development proxies (such as Condensed, 2017). However, many factors have contributed to human development according to the United Nations reports (UN). Further to reports from this organization in 2016, Iran Has been ranked as 69 human development indicators. The most important factor for the consumption of fossil fuels is the high cost of transportation for the displacement of about four million students and snow consumption and etc.
The event study model is an intertemporal statistical tool most commonly applied in accounting, economic, and financial literature as a means to measure the impact of new information on a select firm’s share price (McWilliams & Siegel, 2001). The event study is a powerful tool to measure the impact of an event on a firm, because the effect can be observed over a relatively short time period through shifts in stock prices, rather than over a much longer period through direct productivity related outcomes (MacKinlay, 1997). This is because the event study is a test of the efficient market hypothesis, which infers that stock prices adjust to reflect all newly available information that is relevant to the value of the firm (Fama, 1991; Fama, Fisher, Jensen, & Roll, 1969). An event study analysis can thus measure the short run impact of a specific event on the value of a firm, given the assumption that all relevant information is immediately reflected in security prices (MacKinlay, 1997). However, not all information is relevant to shareholders; abnormal shifts are observed only when the profits to be made by acting on the new information exceeds the marginal costs (Jensen, 1978). Thus, negative abnormal returns from divestment announcements may infer that shareholders do perceive fossil-fuel divestment to be a material threat to the value of the industry. This thesis adopts the stepwise procedure from MacKinlay’s (1997) seminal paper on event studies in economics and finance.
One of the collectives usually excluded at the time of design security systems is the disabled people, who are around 15 % of the world population . Furthermore, it is important to highlight that every individual is potentially dependent (illnesses, age, preg- nancy, etc.). Improving biometrics designs would be beneficial not only for disabled peo- ple but for many others who find the technology complicated to use. It could be thought that biometric recognition is challenging for disabled people but we show in this work that a correct design can make the process easy for everyone. Specifically, we focus on face recognition for visually impaired users, providing audio feedback and instructions. Face recognition has shown to have a good acceptation and it is one of the less intrusive modalities for users. There are several works in the literature embedding face recogni- tion in mobile environments [4, 29, 30]. Nevertheless, the amount of works in biomet- rics accessibility is scarce yet. One of the first approaches is a universal access control to mobile devices through fingerprint and handwritten signature developed by authors . Other recent works in biometrics accessibility show the advantages against other alternatives such as PIN or passwords . These researches point the necessity of reli- able solutions which could ease several procedures to people with accessibility concerns.