This article investigates a low carbon pathway, the theoretical frame for understanding the trade- offs between economic development and climatechange. An already developed model – Electricity Planning-Low Carbon Development (EP-LCD) – was adapted and modified to examine the nonlinear relationship between generation adequacy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction for better targeted strategic regional intervention on climatechange. Two broad scenarios – Base and LCD Option – were tested for the West African Power Pool (WAPP). The cost impact of increasing generation capacity in the LCD Option was estimated at US$1.54 trillion over a 50 year period. Achieving the goal of low carbon pathway would be largely influenced by government decision. Four strategies, in line with the Nationally Determined Contribution in Paris Agreement, were recommended. These are: a) enforced improved efficient electricity generation through increased energy efficiency that should result in increased capacity factor; b) decreased energy intensity of economic activities to result in reduced emission factor in existing plants; c) attract new investment through low tax or tax exemption to reduce cost of constructing power plants for the benefit of base-load plants; and d) subsidized cost of low-carbon fuels in the short run to benefit intermediate load plants and allow for the ramping up of low-/no-carbon fuel generation capacity. These are recommended considering the region’s specific economical and political conditions where funds are tremendously difficult to raise. Implementing these recommendations will allow the electric power industry in WestAfrica to contribute to achieving sustainable development path.
The farming system, which is characterized by subsistence farming (mainly in the form of shifting cultivation) and cash crop farming are also reported to be an important driver of land conversion. In the region, farm sizes for subsistence farming are reported to be consistently correlated with the population size (and thus with population growth), whereas cash crop farms do not follow this pattern (Paré et al., 2008). Cotton is the main cash crop in the Dano catchment and throughout the country. The production of cotton in Burkina Faso has increased by 370% from1990 to 2012 (FAOSTAT, 2015) and the catchment has experienced a similar expansion. The expansion of cotton areas did not only affect farm size but also farming practices with a notable increase in the use of fertilizers. Results of earlier studies (e.g. Lendres et al., 1992) highlighted the increase of maize yields in a cotton-maize rotation system due to the residual effects of the fertilizers used on cotton. This effect, which is well-known by the local farmers, has led to the expansion of cotton-maize rotation systems in the region. Ouattara et al. (2007) exhibited a loss in soil fertility in such a rotation system under intensive farming due to the depletion of soil organic carbon, wish lead to the reduction of soil productivity. Descroix et al. (2009) underline this reduction in soil productivity and land yields as an important factor of degradation of vegetation cover in WestAfrica.
At present, the pattern of electricity consumption is determined by the users of electricity independently of the costs of generating electricity at different times. The development of a smart grid would make it possible to make demand for electricity more responsive to variations in supply. This would facilitate a larger share of variable electricity to be used effectively to meet energy needs. For example, when the wind is blowing strongly and there is surplus electricity, it would be possible to use this surplus to generate heat in a smart storage heating system, rather than curtailing wind. This would involve automated controls and price incentives. The opportunity cost of electricity varies greatly over the course of 24 hours. A smart grid in conjunction with smart meters would make it possible to reflect these cost differences in consumer prices. The development of the smart grid is discussed in Background Paper No. 6. There is also the possibility of using heat pumps (these are a very efficient way of using electricity for heating) in conjunction with energy storage although there are significant challenges to be addressed to develop this as an attractive option for consumers (Hewitt, 2012).
96 nerability (as household and plot-level research in Burkina Faso shows). However, a major problem of doing serious research on long-term changes in regions such as WestAfrica is the lack of reli- able statistics and the lack of long-term panel data, despite decades of foreign-funded regional de- velopment projects and programmes. Our original optimism about being able to use some long- term data sets almost always turned into disappointment. Any attempt to get a better grip on the changes to come and a better understanding of farmer’s/people’s behaviour needs to be supported by genuine attempts to build up monitoring data in a variety of chosen areas and with enough atten- tion to regional and social detail. Reconstructing climatological, agricultural and socio-economic histories became a puzzle and it was rather difficult to interpret the multitude of existing studies from our perspective.
The energysystem is a vital infrastructure which can be vulnerable to climate variability and change (CV&C) impacts. Understanding the impacts can prevent disruption and inform policy decision making. This study applied a scoping review in a systematic manner following the Joanna Briggs Institute guidelines to identify consistent patterns of CV&C impacts on the energysystem, map and locate research gaps in the literature. A total of 176 studies were identified as eligible for inclusion in the review. This study found evidence of consistent increase in energy demand for Africa, the Americas and Asian continent. Consistent decrease was found in Northern and Eastern Europe, while increase in residential demand was projected in Oceania. There was evidence of consistent decrease in thermal power plant output globally. Solar photovoltaic showed a robust consistent pattern of increase in the Caribbean and Central America, Northern and Southern Africa and Oceania. As the global climate is changing in a future that is highly uncertain, the energysystem should also evolve in order to adapt to the changing climate. Future impact assessment must integrate the impact of CV&C on power demand and supply while consider socioeconomic dynamics, cross-sectoral linkages and back-loops in a complete energysystem model.
The analysis of the electricity sector in this paper also illustrates that the gen- eration schedule depends not only on seasonal/diurnal variation in the domestic demand, but is also strongly affected by assumptions on export and import prices in neighbouring markets. However, it is not possible to model the trade in a single region model without the details of cross-boarding countries’ demand, supply and climate polices. This represents an area warranting further model develop- ment to improve analysis of electricity and energysystem scenarios in a small interconnected electricity market such as Switzerland. In addition, it should be noted we have applied an exogenous scenario of energy service demand (although we account for energy saving options, and end-use efficiency). In reality, one would expect some of the energysystem developments outlined in the scenarios above to affect energy service demand through behavioural and structural eco- nomic changes. Thus, linking the approaches in this analysis with complemen- tary economic (i.e., top-down) modelling represents another area warranting further investigation.
interlinked (Mwangi et al., 2015a). Agroforestry, for example, additionally provides other environmental services e.g. soil erosion control, provision of wood products such as timber and fuelwood, carbon sequestration, modification of microclimate (Ong et al., 2006; Nair, 1993). Soil erosion control is directly related to the findings reported here. The decrease in surface runoff due to agroforestry as reported in this study would consequently reduce soil erosion which is still a major problem in the MRB (Defersha and Melesse, 2012; Defersha et al., 2012; Kiragu, 2009). Reduced soil erosion would essentially reduce loss of top fertile soils in farmlands and hence control decline in land productivity for improved crop production. Decline in land productivity in the upper Mara has led to increased encroachment of the Mau forest by the local communities whose main economic activity is subsistence farming (Mati et al., 2008). Reduction in soil erosion would also minimize sedimentation in the rivers and thus improving the water quality. This is very important because the majority of people living in the watershed consume the water directly from the stream without any form of treatment (Ngugi et al., 2014; Dessu et al., 2014). For the few who live in towns within the watershed and who have the privilege of using treated water, reduced sediment loads would lower water treatment costs. Another key benefit of agroforestry is the provision of timber and fuelwood which would lower the pressure on the native forests. In Kenya, about 89% of people living in rural areas rely on fuelwood for their energy needs (World Resources Institute, 2007; Nyaga et al., 2015) which demonstrates the importance of agroforestry in the livelihoods of rural communities. Agroforestry would also be a means of restoring back some of the degraded parts of the watershed that was initially under forest.
In the literature, several studies have examined the dri- vers of agricultural change (such as technology, climatechange, demography and energy transitions) at both the macroeconomic and mega-economic levels (Hazell and Wood 2007; Zondag and Borsboom 2009). In addition, various studies have addressed socioeconomic and envi- ronmental drivers of changes in farm practices at a microeconomic level. These studies have highlighted the effects of farm-specific characteristics, technology-specific attributes and farmers’ socioeconomic characteristics (Iglokwe 2001; Etoundi and Dia 2008) on farm practice changes. Some studies have also explored adaptations intended to cope with a specific challenge, such as climatechange (Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn 2008; Wang et al. 2010; Wood et al. 2014), land degradation (Barungi et al. 2013) and shifts in land use cover (Ebanyat et al. 2010). However, most of these studies have focused on factors that influenced the adoption of a single set of specific agricultural technologies (or even a single agricultural practice) without exploring the roles of multiple environ- mental and socioeconomic challenges faced by farmers as motivators and shapers of adaptive responses. It was, therefore, the aim of this study to identify the major changes in farm practices and analyze its key drivers in Savannah WestAfrica.
WestAfrica is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quanti ﬁcation and understanding of the impact of climatechange on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climatechange impacts on sorghum yields in WestAfrica and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031 –2060 compared to a baseline of 1961–1990 and a robust change in rainfall in WestAfrica with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall de ﬁcits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climatechange, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO 2 , mean crop yield decreases by about
Regarding the IS, it is important to highlight that the legal transition in Spain on renewable energies has a substantial impact on the calculations. The remuneration system has changed substantially since 2012. According to Royal Decree 413/2014, wind farms can receive public financial support during their first 20 years of operation. In this particular case, two wind farms (Cuadramón, El Perdón) have exceeded that time and therefore are only funded through electricity sales. The other two (Rubió and Río Almodóvar) will still receive an investment subsidy (“Retribución a la inversion”) until that time is over. As the goal of the paper is to focus on specific climatechange impacts and not to address financial implications of the new regulatory regime, and because of the long time-frame considered, baseline calculations assume that the investment subsidy is no longer in place. However, due to impact of removing it, calculations have also been made considering its continuation and results will be shown as an alternative scenario.
in other regions although the simulated impact of climatechange shows strong spatial variability. Using CERES-Maize and CERES-Sorghum, Chipanshi et al. (2003) reported that climatechange in the arid zones of Botswana would decrease maize grain yields by 36% and sorghum grain yields by 31%, at least when grown on sandy soil. But these predictions were made without the latest improvements in DSSAT-Cropping System Models (Hoogenboom et al. 2010; White et al. 2015). Based on CERES-maize simulations, Rosenzweig et al. (2014) reported severe negative impact of climatechange on maize grain yield in tropical zones compared to mid- and high-latitude regions across the world, including WestAfrica. Thornton et al. (2011) estimated a decrease of 23% for maize grain yield in WestAfrica due to climatechange, whilst climatechange predictions with CERES-Sorghum indicated grain yield losses of 6% in Akola and 18% in Indore, India, and 12% in Samako and 30% in Cinzana, Mali (Singh et al. 2014). A decrease in sorghum grain yield of up to 20% was predicted for the semi-arid region of Ghana using APSIM (McCarthy and Vlek 2012), and by more than 40% for the Sudan Savannah zone of Togo and Benin, and Sahelian region of Senegal, Mali, and Burkina Faso with the SARRAH model (Sultan et al. 2013). In contrast, for the Guinean zone of Ghana, Srivastava et al. (2017), using the LINTUL5 crop model, predicted an increase in maize grain by 57% and biomass yield by 59% due to climatechange. The high variation among these results is mainly due to differences in the type of climate models and scenarios assumed, reference and future time horizons considered, robustness of the crop models applied, crop cultivars and management practices used, and agro-ecological boundary selected (Rosenzweig et al. 2014; Roudier et al. 2011). Yet the present results combined with those of a comprehensive review of climatechangeimpact on crop yields in WestAfrica (Roudier et al. 2011) indicate that negative impact is most likely to prevail in the Dry Savannah agro-ecological zone.
The welfare of people in the tropics and sub-tropics strongly depends on goods and services that savanna ecosystems supply, such as food and livestock production, fuel wood, and climate regulation. Flows of these services are strongly inﬂuenced by climate, land use and their interactions. Savannas cover c. 20% of the Earth’s land surface and changes in the structure and dynamics of savanna vegetation may strongly inﬂuence local people’s living conditions, as well as the climatesystem and global biogeochemical cycles. In this study, we use a dynamic vegetation model, the aDGVM, to explore interactive effects of climate and land use on the vegetation structure and distribution of West African savannas under current and anticipated future environmental conditions. We parameterized the model for West African savannas and extended it by including sub-models to simulate ﬁre management, grazing, and wood cutting. The model projects that under future climate without human land use impacts, large savanna areas would shift toward more wood dominated vegetation due to CO 2 fertilization effects, increased water use efﬁciency and decreased ﬁre activity. However, land use activities could maintain desired vegetation states that ensure ﬂuxes of important ecosystem services, even under anticipated future conditions. Ecosystem management can mitigate climatechange impacts on vegetation and delay or avoid undesired vegetation shifts. The results highlight the effects of land use on the future distribution and dynamics of savannas. The identiﬁcation of management strategies is essential to maintain important ecosystem services under future conditions in savannas worldwide.
and positively contributed to climatechange in the region. There was also an increase in cultivated ecosystem in all countries and reduction in wetlands which all contributed towards climatechange. The adaptation projects took a predicable trend whereby 32% were within agricultural sector, had generally low budget (63% had less than one million American Dollar budget) and midterm implementation duration (46% had 3 years implementation duration). About 55% of the studied projects directly mentioned one or more ecosystem services, with provisioning services being mentioned in 50% of these projects. The study also revealed that there exists opportunities to redesign the projects and improve their activities to enhance the community adaptation and mitigation to climatechange effects. The adaptive measures included strengthening the ability of natural resources to play their roles while mitigation measures included creation of more carbon sinks through soil conservation and reforestation measures, investment in renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. The study concludes that the adaptation projects have considered different types of ecosystem services. It recommends increased contextualization of the climatechange adaptation projects to address the community and environmental needs through more community engagement and use of technology to understand the social and environmental dynamics in a given area. The study also recommends further research on the impacts of the
survey. First of all, 23% of participants chose informative measures as more effective for behavioral change. People are interested in learning methods of efficient use of electricity mostly via TV and the Internet. Public service ads and then documentaries are the kinds of formats they would like to see on TV. One fourth of participants have chosen feedback as their preferred behavioral change measure. Consumers are open to a new format of billing. They are willing to see more informative data on their bill including the environmental impact of their consumption, the comparison with last month’s consumption and so on. Providing access to their consumption at any time also impacts consumption and should be an alternative to keep consumers more often informed of their energy consumption. At a rate of 37.1%, reward is the most common method to incentivize for behavioral change. Unsurprisingly, people have opted for monetary rewards in return for using energy efficiently. In addition to a reward, disincentives had also been listed in the survey and disincentives were chosen by 9.1% of households. It would not be wrong to consider disincentives as the opposite of rewards. For this reason, monetary disincentives could be a tool to attain energy efficient behaviors. According to Prospect Theory people will react to a loss rather than a gain. Therefore, we would expect to see disincentives at a higher rate among participants . However, it is not also surprising for households to opt for rewards. The Rational Choice Theory says people are always in favor of gaining benefits , , . Last, only 5% of respondents choose social activities as a behavioral change measure. People thin activities taking place at schools would be more enjoyable and more informative. Probably households with children are willing to partici- pate in such activities for the purpose of being a good model for their children and leaving them a better society.
The energy impacts are derived with the energysystem model POLES, which has the advantage of covering the world and offers the possibility to look at dynamic scenarios throughout the century. The spatial disaggregation is at country level and the temporal detail allows a seasonal approach. This limits the scope of results compared to more specialised but shorter-term, local models. POLES cannot study well weekly or sub- national (extreme) weather events but rather focuses on climate tendencies with monthly or seasonal patterns and on national and international energy balances between supply and demand. However, the impacts of drought are quantified in the dedicated PESETA IV report based on the relative economical weight of the energy sector. The floods and wind reports also quantify impacts, for example showing that wind extremes are not expected to increase consistently, which is relevant for the safety of future wind turbines. The available data has to be adapted by aggregating spatially and temporally. Spatial matrixes of weighting coefficients (rasters) represent population (for the aggregation of temperatures), current and potential future wind plants (for wind speeds) and current hydro and thermal plants (for river runoffs at hydro, nuclear, coal, oil, gas and biomass plants respectively). The weighting factor uncertainty is assumed to be negligible. The temporal description of the POLES model distinguishes summer, winter or swing seasons within six representative days per annual time-step. The seasonal variations of the climate data impacts the infra- annual availability of power plants. Extreme and short events (sub-monthly dynamics) like droughts, floods or windstorms can imply short-term disruptions of energy production but are not considered under this analysis. First we present static scenarios of the 1.5, 2 and 3 degree warming levels, everything else maintained equal (2020’s power system and socio-economic conditions, no climatechange mitigation nor adaptation, constant water use). We apply this to Europe only and to the whole world in order to see the magnitude of spill-over effects. Then we present a 2-degree scenario (mitigation effort consistent with 2 degree warming at global level, RCP 4.5 climate scenario in Europe) in a dynamic context, where electricity demand and supply evolve along the century 4 . An adaptation option is then added, consisting of a technology switch of thermal plant
involve a variety of private initiatives, policy measures and institutions (Lybbert and Sumner, 2012). Crop management would benefit from extension and national weather services collaborating in the establishment of early warning systems and in the further improvement of the current climate predictions, resulting in information that is meaningful for local farmers. The growth in the use of mobile phones in rural Mali constitutes a new channel and new opportunities for accessing information, if it is supplied in the right way. The recent launch of the project ‘Senekela’ of the mobile company ``Orange Mali`` is an initiative that aims at facilitating the access of farmers to information via the mobile phone. This approach needs to be scaled up to enable farmers to benefit from the variety of information relevant for each stage of the agricultural production process, ranging from weather forecasts, seed availability, fertilizers, to pest and disease management. Evidence from Kenya shows that it is possible to reach millions of farmers with climate services that support decision-making under a changing climate by using mobile phones (Aker, 2011). The ability to anticipate weather anomalies and prepare to mitigate their impact on agricultural production gives farmers the opportunity to better manage climate related risks (Hammer et al., 2001; Hansen et al., 2011). In the short term improved weather information increases the ability of farmers to take appropriate actions to face adverse weather events. It offers the opportunity to improve the timing and management of inputs in ways that reduce financial and production risks.
Climatechange impacts on every aspect of life and it is widely accepted that the world’s poor are the most vulnerable to the impacts of climatechange. Even relatively small changes, such as inexorable temperature increases, shifts in seasons and unpredictable rain patterns can destroy livelihoods and plunge people into poverty. Furthermore, poor people usually live in areas most prone to potential disasters from flooding, cyclones, droughts, etc. Poor people tend to have limited resources to cope with the impact of global warming. Poorer communities are more dependent on ecosystems for their livelihoods or help in times of emergency. According to Hunter, “rural households tend to rely heavily on climate-sensitive resources such as local water supplies and agricultural land; climate-sensitive activities such as arable farming and livestock husbandry; and natural resources such as fuel-wood and wild herbs.” Natural resources such as fish, grazing land or forests provide income, food, medicine, tools, fuel, and construction materials amongst others. One of this report’s case studies explores the lives of fishers on the west coast being impacted upon by government policies, over fishing and environmental changes.
Global mean surface air temperature has been steadily rising since 1950s, primarily attributed to increase in greenhouse gases emission. This impact of global warming is not limited to global and regional changes in temperature alone, it also has significant impact on regional rainfall patterns, which may not only alter rainfall amount but rainfall distributions and patterns. Similarly, the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC, 2007) reported to the United Nations that the earth’s climatesystem is undoubtedly getting warmer. Although specific individual events can’t be directly linked to global warming, the IPCC has noted many indications of climatechange around the world such as: retreating mountain glaciers on all continents; thinning ice caps in the Arctic and Antarctic; rising sea – about 6-7 inches in the 20 th century; more frequent heavy precipitation events (rainstorms, floods or snowstorms) in many areas; more intense and longer droughts over wider areas, especially in the tropics and subtropics; more frequent and stronger occurrences of hurricane/typhoons. Our main source of information about the past climatechange comes from observations while information about possible future climate changes is obtained through numerical climate models. An accumulation of body of evidence suggests that the decrease of the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations could increase the frequency of dry spell in some regions of the globe; physical considerations imply that the sensitivity of heavy precipitation may be determined primarily by the change in the atmospheric moisture transport capacity (governed by the clausius-clapeyron relation) rather than the change in the mean precipitation and evaporation (Trenberth, 1999; Allen and Ingram, 2002; Trenberth et al., 2003).
Abstract. This review summarizes the impacts of climatechange on runoff in WestAfrica, assesses the uncertainty in the projections and describes future research needs for the region. To do so, we constitute a meta-database made of 19 studies and 301 future runoff change values. The future ten- dency in streamflow developments is overall very uncertain (median of the 301 points is 0 % and mean + 5.2 %), except for (i) the Gambia River, which exhibits a significant nega- tive change (median = − 4.5 %), and (ii) the Sassandra and the Niger rivers, where the change is positive ( + 14.4 % and + 6.1 %). A correlation analysis revealed that runoff changes are tightly linked to changes in rainfall (R = 0.49), and to a smaller extent also to changes in potential evapotranspi- ration. Other parameters than climate – such as the carbon effect on plant water efficiency, land use dynamics or water withdrawals – could also significantly impact on runoff, but they generally do not offset the effects of climatechange. In view of the potential changes, the large uncertainty therein and the high vulnerability of the region to such changes, there is an urgent need for integrated studies that quantify the potential effects of these processes on water resources in WestAfrica and for more accuracy in climate models rainfall projections. We especially underline the lack of information concerning projections of future floods and droughts, and of interannual fluctuations in streamflow.
mitigation and adaptation. Although local crop production provides the majority supply of staple foods, mostly rainfed agricultural system in Sub-Saharan Africa is not prepared to adapt to projected future climate. Various studies predicted significant reduction in productivity of the major crops in the region under the changed climate scenario unless new technology and adaptation policy can counteract the adverse effect of climate variability (Schlenker and Lobell 2010, Knox 2012, Ahmed et al. 2015). Also in Sub- Saharan Africa, more than 80% of the agricultural growth since 1980 was attributed to crop area expansion instead of increase of productivity over already existing agricultural land (The World Bank, 2008). Considering the vulnerability of agricultural infrastructures in the region, despite the potential scope of improving yield to minimize land usechange, addition of new crop area is likely to be a prevailing strategy for agricultural growth in the near future. Therefore, comprehensive analysis of crop response to regional climate changes should be included in investigating future land use changes, and the resulting feedback to regional climate. However, to our knowledge, no previous studies projecting regional climatechange in WestAfrica directly addressed the climatechangeimpact on crop yield and crop area distribution in evaluating land use- climate interaction in WestAfrica.