Top PDF Great Lakes Water Levels Trends

Great Lakes Water Levels Trends

Great Lakes Water Levels Trends

6 | P a g e Analyzing Spectral Patterns: A historical view of Great Lakes water fluctuations allows for mathematical analysis of spectral patterns in the data. Cohn and Robinson (1976) extrapolated cyclical patterns from 115 years of water level trends. The results showed patterns of 1, 11, 22, and 36 year periods of highs and lows in the form of sine waves. When multiple peaks or troughs coincide with one another, lake levels were at an irregular high or an irregular low. Cohn and Robinson (1976) hoped to use this data to predict future water levels to prepare for extreme conditions. Similarly, Walton (1989) used historical models of annual lake level fluctuations to predict future erosional patterns. This study looks at monthly changes and attempts to separate out white noise from lake patterns. Walton (1989) claims that human influence on lake levels is minor in comparison to natural cycles. Sine waves are derived through mathematical equations of known data and projected on additional time frames. In both Cohn and Robinson (1976) and Walton (1989) models could accurately predict patterns for other documented years. However, while their models matched well with documented data, Findings from Wilcox et al. (2007) disagree with the pattern times and their models failed to consider changing climatology. It is unlikely that fluctuating lake patterns can be extrapolated from 150 years of data, especially with current climate change trends. When historical data is overlaid with climatological records patterns with both appear to coincide giving a more encompassing picture of lake level fluctuations.
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What Could Changing Great Lakes Water Levels Mean for our Coastal Communities? A case for climate-adapted planning approaches

What Could Changing Great Lakes Water Levels Mean for our Coastal Communities? A case for climate-adapted planning approaches

A measure of how plausible each interest group’s risk scenario might be under different water level and climate scenarios could help prioritize specific management actions. The Great Lakes Water Level Dashboard provides the range of historic water levels for Lake Michigan and ClimateWizard can help managers explore how the regional climate has changed, and is projected to change over the next 50-100 years. For example, the Great Lakes Water Level Dashboard shows that between 1869 and 2012, the Lake Michigan annual average water level variability has ranged between a low of 175.68m (1964) and a high of 177.39m (1886). Over the past 30 years, the range has been between 175.89m (2003) and 177.29m (1986). Climate Wizard shows us that overland temperature is projected to increase in northern Wisconsin by about 3-4° by the 2050’s and by about 6° by the 2080’s (High A2 emissions scenario, ensemble average of all GCMs). Precipitation projections are less certain, but overall increasing heavy precipitation events are expected with longer dry periods between heavy precipitation events. Visualization applications from the Great Lakes Coastal Resiliency Planning Guide and Digital Coast may help managers further cement their
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Long-term trends in bottom water chemistry of Swedish lakes

Long-term trends in bottom water chemistry of Swedish lakes

Rising TOC levels and subsequent hypothesised effects on DO is associated with lake thermal structure (Solomon et al., 2015), which can be assessed by observing temporal patterns in water temperatures. If the observed increase in TOC has affected the thermal structure of some study lakes, there may be evidence in terms of temporal changes in surface and bottom water temperatures. Overall, the water temperature time series data generally lacked significant trend results. However, surface water temperatures have significantly increased (Mann-Kendall, p<0.05) in two lakes, whereas bottom water temperatures have declined in two lakes and increased in one lake. Furthermore, decreasing trends in either one or two of the minimum, median or maximum bottom water temperatures were observed in 4 study lakes. The lack of significant trends in other lakes might have been a result of high seasonal variation. Monthly trend tests (Seasonal Mann-Kendall, p<0.05) were thus performed. The results indicated that the surface water temperatures measured in September have increased over time in 8 study lakes. As September is at the end of the summer stratification period, annual surface water temperatures are expected to be warmest at this time period. An increase in surface water temp- eratures at the end of the stratification period might translate into a longer duration of the thermal stratification due to increased resistance to mixing, resulting from higher temperature gradients between surface and bottom waters (Boehrer & Schultze, 2008). Moreover, the significant decrease in median bottom water temperatures in Allgjuttern, Härsvatten and Stora Envättern indicates a longer period of cooler bottom water, possibly due to prolonged stratification. In order to assess temporal trends in lake thermal structure, depth temperature profiles are highly useful. A temperature profile would for instance show if the thermocline depth has changed over time and resulted in a larger hypolimnetic, and potentially anoxic, volume of water which may result in a cooling of whole-lake temperatures (Tanentzap et al., 2008). In this study, some lakes did exhibit the hypothesised changes in surface (warming) and bottom (cooling) water temperatures, possibly induced by rising TOC levels, climate warming, or both combined.
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PROTECTION OF THE WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES

PROTECTION OF THE WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES

Moving forward, it is important to remember that there really is no “surplus” water in the Great Lakes Basin. From an ecosystem perspective, it is all in use, even in periods of high supply. There continues to be large voids between our knowledge regarding levels and flows, and the impact they have on the ecosystem of the basin. Due to prevailing uncertainties such as those posed by climate change and the sheer threat of the unexpected, the precautionary principle needs to be continually applied by basin jurisdictions to ensure, to the extent possible, adequate supplies for all socio-economic and ecosystem uses for the long term. Finally, awareness and education of public and private sectors as to the critical current issues facing the Great Lakes are essential to ensure the protection of this unique and valuable ecosystem and associated services.
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Implications for the Great Lakes Environment

Implications for the Great Lakes Environment

During normal turbine operation, some noise will be transmitted through the tower and into the water, producing sound vibrations at levels similar to a small boat engine [8] . Off the coast of Cape Cod where there are plans to construct turbines 2,000 feet apart, underwater noise is expected to decline to back- ground levels 328 feet from each turbine base [9]. Most studies conclude that turbine noise will not cause any physiological damage to fish, but potential impacts on fish behavior and communication are poorly understood. The hearing capability of fish species varies widely — for example carp are much more sensi- tive to noise that salmon — and some fish are expected to avoid the area within 13 feet of an operating turbine [9]. However, certain fish, such as cod and gobies, seem to congregate around existing turbine foundations in saltwater environments [9,11].
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Impacts of Climate Change and Multiple Stressors on Water Levels and Phytoplankton in Small Temperate Lakes Within the Great Lakes Region Over Three Decades

Impacts of Climate Change and Multiple Stressors on Water Levels and Phytoplankton in Small Temperate Lakes Within the Great Lakes Region Over Three Decades

including epilimnion thickness (Cahill et al., 2005; Keller et al., 2006), and thermocline depth (Fee et al., 1996; Pérez-Fuentetaja et al., 1999). Coloured DOC best absorbs short wavelengths of light, ranging from blue to ultraviolet (Mostofa et al., 2013), which results in UV protection for phytoplankton and differential lake warming. The chromophores in dissolved organic matter (DOM) absorb solar radiation with a wavelength above 290 nm (Wetzel, 2001), and particularly attenuate UV-B (280-320 nm), UV-A (320-400 nm), and blue photosynthetically active radiation (400-495 nm) (Vincent and Roy, 1993; Kirk 1994a,b; Morris et al., 1995). This reduces negative impacts to phytoplankton due to UV exposure, which includes DNA damage, reduced capability of nutrient uptake, and depression of physiological processes (Vincent and Roy, 1993; Karentz et al., 1994; Moeller, 1994; Leu et al., 2007). In a study that modelled light attenuation in 65 glacial lakes across North America, when DOC levels are below 1-2 mg/L, the 1% attenuation depths are at their greatest, and are sensitive to small changes in DOC concentration (Williamson et al., 1996). The impacts on aquatic ecosystems may be nonlinear; recent studies have suggested that primary production becomes limited through light attenuation above a certain DOC
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Report on Spills in the Great Lakes Basin

Report on Spills in the Great Lakes Basin

As a result of its review, however, the Commission has determined some clear and simple findings. Without better monitoring data and shared data reporting, it will continue to be difficult to determine accurately the real trends in spill incidents occurring to the Great Lakes and the St. Clair–Detroit River corridor. In the absence of more comprehensive information and trend analyses, it is virtually impossible to direct accountability for spill prevention and enforcement. Significant improvements are required in binational spill information management and sharing, and coordination of spill preven- tion approaches. In addition, the Commission found that enhanced monitoring programs, accurate spill detection and simplified notification procedures are needed to reduce the harmful human and ecosystem impacts of spills. Further, both countries need to improve cross boarder communications between their agencies and with water users about protective actions they should take. Lastly, the Commission observed that the responsibility for cleanup costs of major spill incidents is not clear and should be addressed.
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Climatological trends and predictions in snowfall over the Canadian snowbelts of the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin

Climatological trends and predictions in snowfall over the Canadian snowbelts of the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin

Mixing can be influenced by the surface albedo, which can affect the amount of incoming shortwave radiation being absorbed or reflected by the surface. Lake surface albedo can be affected by water turbidity. The albedo for water surfaces can range between 2-3% for turbid waters and 6% for clear water (Schertzer, 1997). Lake surface albedo is also a function of the solar zenith angle, latitude, and surface roughness (Cogley, 1979). Lake surface albedo is highest when the sun is closest to the horizon, thus reflecting the majority of energy away from the lake. However, lakes are naturally good absorbers of incoming solar radiation and possess a certain degree of transparency, in contrast to land, which can lead to temperature and pressure gradients between lakes and nearby land surfaces. The temperature gradient between land and water bodies is attributed to the thermal capacity of a substance. Thermal conductivity, which is the rate of penetration of heat from the surface into a substance, influences the thermal capacity of lakes. Thermal conductivity increases with greater water turbulence, which is induced by wind stresses, currents, and density differences. Mixing within the lake occurs through convection, which induces mass transport of fluid that permits heat exchange throughout the water body. Mixing efficiency distributes heat downward, absorbing and diffusing energy throughout the large water volume and preventing the surface from rapidly warming. As lakes absorb energy, some of it is used for evaporation, thereby cooling the surface and inhibiting an increase in lake temperature (Eichenlaub, 1979). At the top layer, evaporative cooling can destabilize the surface, thereby, further enhancing convective mixing (Oke, 1987).
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Cyanobacterial Toxins of the Laurentian Great Lakes, their Toxicological Effects, and Numerical Limits in Drinking Water

Cyanobacterial Toxins of the Laurentian Great Lakes, their Toxicological Effects, and Numerical Limits in Drinking Water

These important studies established criteria for protecting human populations from injury due to acute MC exposure. They establish that the acute and overall observable pathological effects after consumption of water containing MCs occurs at relatively high concentrations > 1,000 µg/kg b.w. Dosages at these levels are unlikely to occur with treated drinking water with even minimal primary treatment. In recent years, the effects of chronic low- dose exposure to MCs as well as toxicity to tissues other than the liver have been examined. These studies are based on the known mode of action of MCs. The molecular mechanism of MC toxicity resembles that of other biomolecules. The list of naturally occurring molecules that inhibit phosphatases in nature includes dinophysistoxins, calyculin, dragmacidins, tautomycin, tautomycetin, cytostatins, phospholine, leustroducsins, phoslactomycins, fostriecin, cantharidin, okadaic acid as well as MCs [160]. In particular, okadaic acid is associated with chronic diseases such as tumor production and cancer. Okadaic acid is a marine biotoxin produced by dinoflagellates and it accumulates in various host tissues including shellfish and sponges [161- 163]. It is a tumor promoter and potent inhibitor of PP1/2A. Yoshizawa et al. [164] discovered that in cytosolic fractions of mouse liver, MCLR inhibited the binding of okadaic acid to protein phosphatases, increasing protein phosphorylation and decreasing phosphatase activity in 50% of controls using nanomolar levels of MCLR. Structural studies show that the methylene carbon of the methyl-dehydroalanine residue of MCs covalently binds to a cysteine residue on the C subunit of PP1/2A phosphatases leading to enzyme inhibition [165]. This also has the effect of preventing the detection of MCs in exposed individuals by most approaches and accumulation of the bound product in host tissues, primarily the liver. Note, however, that recent studies suggest that MC bound to thiols might disassociate over time. Thus, it is possible that some portion of protein- bound MCs might still be considered potentially toxic.
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Water Quality Relationships in the Great Lakes: Analysis of a Survey Questionnaire

Water Quality Relationships in the Great Lakes: Analysis of a Survey Questionnaire

A questionnaire survey conducted among 650 governmental units in the Great Lakes area has identified the levels of water quality in the respective areas, the perceived factors contributi[r]

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The Great Lapse: Climate Change, Water Resources and Economic Risks  in the Great Lakes

The Great Lapse: Climate Change, Water Resources and Economic Risks in the Great Lakes

In addition to substantial carbon missions from the energy sector that contri- bute climate change, the inverse is a reality in the Great Lakes: climate changes poses numerous threats to the energy sector such as rising water temperatures and decreasing water supplies, including declining lake levels in the Great Lakes. Water temperatures and evaporation rates are expected to rise in the region, which statistical models predict will decrease lake levels by a drastic 8.2 feet (2.5 meters) by 2090 [14]. The higher water temperatures will make the intake water warmer at power plants, which will decrease cooling efficiency and safety. War- mer water intake has already been documented to be 8 C in Lake Michigan [13], which greatly decreases cooling efficiency for power plants. Warmer intake wa- ter also results in warmer discharge water from power plants, which will further degrade ecosystems and will likely push power plants into non-compliance with environmental policies on discharge water. The loss of water to higher levels of evaporation and consumption will result in long-term consequences for lower- ing lake levels. The lake level of Lake Michigan has already been documented to decrease up to six feet (2 meters) during low years, which has resulted in many power plants shutting down temporarily or permanently, and other power plants regularly violating permits. The lower water levels in the Great Lakes will require many drinking water intake locations and power plants locations near the shores of the Great Lakes to relocate.
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Lake-level Variability and Water Availability in the Great Lakes

Lake-level Variability and Water Availability in the Great Lakes

The Great Lakes Basin covers a large area of North America. The lakes capture and store great volumes of water that are critical in maintaining human activities and natural ecosystems. Water enters the lakes mostly in the form of precipitation and streamflow. Although flow through the connecting channels is a primary output from the lakes, evaporation is also a major output. Water levels in the lakes vary naturally on timescales that range from hours to millennia; storage of water in the lakes changes at the seasonal to millennial scales in response to lake-level changes. Short-term changes result from storm surges and seiches and do not affect storage. Seasonal changes are driven by differences in net basin supply during the year related to snowmelt, precipitation, and evaporation. Annual to millennial changes are driven by subtle to major climatic changes affecting both precipitation (and resulting streamflow) and evaporation. Rebounding of the Earth’s surface in response to loss of the weight of melted glaciers has differentially affected water levels. Rebound rates have not been uniform across the basin, causing the hydrologic outlet of each lake to rise in elevation more rapidly than some parts of the coastlines. The result is a long-term change in lake level with respect to shoreline features that differs from site to site.
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GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS

GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS

Fig. 1. (a) Three Slepian functions for the dashed region around Greenland, complete to spherical harmonic degree and order 60. Each of the mathematical functions (shown from left to right are the irst, ifth, and ninth functions from the com- plete set) is a “template” map pattern for the ice mass loss that we recover from the data. The full set of 20 such functions, with the proper weightings derived from the data, yields the modeled ice mass loss pattern shown in Figure 1b. (b) Green- land’s total ice mass change from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data collected between January 2003 and June 2014, in centimeters of water equivalent per meter squared. The total mass loss integrated over the region for this time period is 2412 gigatons. The image has been corrected from the version printed in the 1 April magazine. (c) Greenland’s ice mass loss, shown in monthly continent-wide averages over the past decade, in gigatons. Error bars show plus and minus twice the standard deviation and the best it quadratic function that describes the accelerating behavior.
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Fish Out of Salt Water: Smoltification in Subyearling Chinook Salmon from the Laurentian Great Lakes

Fish Out of Salt Water: Smoltification in Subyearling Chinook Salmon from the Laurentian Great Lakes

In the hatchery study, I raised juveniles from gametes under controlled environmental conditions to track the progression of smoltification throughout the spring and summer seasons when they would smolt in the wild. I used a battery of smoltification indices to determine their smolt status. My hypothesis was that Great Lakes juveniles would undergo smoltification following the same general pattern as populations in their native range (Figure 1), but that there would be a difference in growth and timing. Because of colder over-wintering temperatures combining with higher summer water temperatures than their ancestral rivers, individuals were expected to grow faster and smolt at smaller sizes. This would lead to selection to be prepared to out-migrate before river conditions deteriorated, even though development would be suppressed during winter. This follows from theory of flexible growth rates under time constraints (Abrams et al. 1996). I predicted that juvenile Great Lakes Chinook salmon would undergo a similar trajectory of NKA enzyme activity to Figure 1 and I also predicted a concomitant increase in body silvering and body elongation over the smoltification period.
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Technical Economics and the Great Lakes Trade

Technical Economics and the Great Lakes Trade

tion plus a nominal charge for interest; the sum of the two or capital recovery factor for a Great Lakes ship may show up as only five percent of the invested cost,.. to be closer to 19 [r]

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The Great Lakes: Catalysts of Industrial Evolution

The Great Lakes: Catalysts of Industrial Evolution

First and foremost, my greatest struggle throughout the project was with selective visual representation. After beginning my research, I realized how vast and rich the history of settlement on the Great Lakes is. Countless denominations of indigenous peoples have inherited the region for hundreds of years, while European settlement brought territorial changes, wars, and developed the New World. Industrial movements in agriculture, shipping, mining, logging, fur trade, and maritime travel saturate the history of the region, and each time I tried to narrow my research to specific time periods and locations, I continued to find infinitely large databases of captivating information that I want to share. I constantly wondered, how do I tell such expansive stories in such a limited amount of space? How do I sort through the information I find to create organized narratives? I also felt it important to find balance between creative narratives and historical accuracy. At first, I collaged native flora and fauna, specific rocks associated with each lake, indigenous peoples, notable places, historic events, iconic figures and structures, and shipwrecks in order to communicate the rich history of the region. Quickly, I realized there would be too much information to sift through as both a viewer and researcher.
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Developing and Implementing Predictive Models for Estimating Recreational Water Quality at Great Lakes Beaches

Developing and Implementing Predictive Models for Estimating Recreational Water Quality at Great Lakes Beaches

Abstract Predictive models have been used at beaches to improve the timeliness and accuracy of recreational water-quality assessments over the most common current approach to water- quality monitoring, which relies on culturing fecal-indicator bacteria such as Escherichia coli (E. coli.). Beach-specific predictive models use environmental and water-quality variables that are easily and quickly measured as surrogates to estimate concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria or to provide the probability that a State recreational water-quality standard will be exceeded. When predictive models are used for beach closure or advisory decisions, they are referred to as “nowcasts.” During the recreational seasons of 2010–12, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with 23 local and State agencies, worked to improve existing nowcasts at 4 beaches, validate predictive models at another 38 beaches, and collect data for predictive-model development at 7 beaches throughout the Great Lakes. This report summarizes efforts to collect data and develop predictive models by multiple agen- cies and to compile existing information on the beaches and beach-monitoring programs into one comprehensive report. Local agencies measured E. coli concentrations and vari- ables expected to affect E. coli concentrations such as wave height, turbidity, water temperature, and numbers of birds at the time of sampling. In addition to these field measurements, equipment was installed by the USGS or local agencies at or near several beaches to collect water-quality and metrological measurements in near real time, including nearshore buoys, weather stations, and tributary staff gages and monitors. The USGS worked with local agencies to retrieve data from existing sources either manually or by use of tools designed specifically to compile and process data for predictive-model development.
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Data Lakes: Trends and Perspectives

Data Lakes: Trends and Perspectives

Fig. 2. An implementation of the data lake functional architecture. 4 Future Research Axes The University Hospital Center (UHC) of Toulouse owns a great amount of data produced by different applications, it can also access to many external data. In order to facilitate data analytics to improve medical treatments, UHC of Toulouse lunched a project of DL to combine data from different individual sources. In this context, we encounter some problems: How to integrate a DL in the existing DSS? How to ensure the quality of data analytics by tracing back to the various transformations of data since the ingestion? Based on the questions that we are facing, we propose some research axes.
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Great Lakes Basin Route Narrative

Great Lakes Basin Route Narrative

Route Environmental interface: The greenfield segment has more wooded area and water features than any of the other ten-mile segments discussed in this narrative. The preferred alignment removes fewer trees and involves a much shorter crossing of the Fox River than the alternative Fox River crossing described above. From MP 132.5 to MP 140.00 water may be present in the farm fields within or adjacent to the right of way after heavy rainfalls. This drainage issue could be mitigated during the grading process by channeling the water into an improved drainage arrangement. Safety at grade crossings would be maintained with flashers, gates, and bell. The area will benefit from a quiet zone reducing noise exposure from rail operations.
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GREAT LAKES CHAPTER FIELD NOTES

GREAT LAKES CHAPTER FIELD NOTES

I trust that everyone is busy at this time of year with many family and work commitments and looking forward to a busy and hopefully profit- able summer. I would like to take a few minutes of your time to discuss a vital ingredient in the success of your Great Lakes Chapter. In recent weeks, I have had the opportunity to teach several courses in a number of locations throughout the country and am continually amazed at the different levels of training received by appraisers. There are many providers of ap- praisal education out there, but few, if any, that offer the same level of competent appraisal edu- cation as the Appraisal Institute. I would like to encourage everyone in the Chapter to commit to obtaining both your prelicensure education and your continuing education from The Great Lakes Chapter. Our Education Chair, David Rice, along with Joan, work hard to provide a selection of seminars and classes for our membership, how- ever, sometimes our membership looks only at the cost of the course rather than the quality of the education they are receiving from other pro- viders.
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