Abstract. The current structural design provisions are prevalently based on experience and on the assumption of stationary meteorological conditions. However, the observations of past decades and advanced climate models show that this assumption is debatable. Therefore, this paper examines the historical long-termtrends in groundsnow load maxima, and their effect on structural reliability. For this purpose, the Carpathianregion is selected, and data from a joint research effort of nine countries of the region are used. Annualmaximasnow water equivalents are taken, and univariate generalized extreme value distribution is adopted as a probabilistic model. Stationary and five non- stationary distributions are fitted to the observations utilizing the maximum likelihood method. Statistical and information theory based approaches are used to compare the models and to identify trends. Additionally, reliability analyses are performed on a simple structure to explore the practical significance of the trends. The calculations show decreasing trends in annualmaxima for most of the region. Although statistically significant changes are detected at many locations, the practical significance - with respect to structural reliability - is considerable only for a few, and the effect is favourable. The results indicate that contrary to the widespread practice in extreme event modelling, the exclusive use of statistical techniques on the analysed extremes is insufficient to identify practically significant trends. This should be demonstrated using practically relevant examples, e.g. reliability of structures.
Abstract. In this study, the trends and variability of annual precipitation totals and annual rain days over land within the Mediterranean region are analyzed. Longtermground- based observations concerning, on one hand, monthly pre- cipitation totals (1900–2010) and rain days (1965–2010) from 40 meteorological stations within the Mediterranean region were obtained from the Hellenic National Meteo- rological Service and the World Climate Data and Moni- toring Programme (WCDMP) of the World Meteorological Organization. On the other hand, high spatial resolution (0.5 ◦ × 0.5 ◦ ) gridded monthly data CRU TS 3.1 were ac- quired from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, for the period 1901–2009. The two datasets were compared by means of trends and variability, while the influ- ence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the Mediter- ranean precipitation was examined. In the process, the cli- matic changes in the precipitation regime between the pe- riod 1961–1990 (reference period) and the period 2071–2100 (future climate) were presented using climate model simu- lations (RACMO2.1/KNMI). The future climate projections were based on SRES A1B.
at the catchment or watershed scale (Dewalle and Rango, 2008; Kinar and Pomeroy, 2015) in the USA (the Reynolds Creek experimental watershed, Nayak et al., 2010; the Sleep- ers River Basin, Pellerin et al., 2012; the Hubbard Brook Basin, Hardy et al., 2001; the Loch Vale, Balk and Elder, 2000; the Green Lakes Valley, Caine, 1992), Canada (the Marmot Creek Research Basin, DeBeer and Pomeroy, 2009) and Europe (the Swiss Alps, Davos, Beniston et al., 2003; the Col de Porte experimental site, Morin et al., 2012). To promote alpine hydrology research, the International Net- work for Alpine Research Catchment Hydrology (INARCH) was launched in 2015 by the Global Energy and Water Ex- changes (GEWEX) project of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), involving 18 catchments around the world (Pomeroy et al., 2015). The INARCH has since con- nected individual observatories into an international network and data-sharing platform to lead frontier research on alpine region hydrometeorology and snow observation. Another community-based observation network, the Circumpolar Ac- tive Layer Monitoring (CALM) network, was initiated in the early 1990s to observe the response of the active layer and near-surface permafrost to climate change (Brown et al., 2000). The sites of the CALM network are located not only in the Arctic and Antarctic regions but also in several mid- latitude mountainous regions. The observation infrastructure is designed to include standard active layer and near-surface permafrost measurements, with snow cover, soil moisture and ground subsidence measured simultaneously at selected sites (Brown et al., 2000). In addition, the Global Terres- trial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) is the primary inter- national program targeted at monitoring permafrost parame- ters. GTN-P was developed in the 1990s by the International Permafrost Association (IPA) under the Global Climate Ob- serving System (GCOS) and the Global Terrestrial Observ- ing System (GTOS), with the long-term goal of obtaining a comprehensive understanding of the spatial structure, trends and variability of changes in the active layer thickness and permafrost temperature (Streletskiy et al., 2017). The CALM and GTN-P networks have shared stations and are considered two representative initiatives focusing on frozen-ground ob- servation.
As is well-known from many investigations the behavior of the ionosphere is markedly controlled by solar activity. In most of the ionospheric prediction models the solar activity is described by the solar sunspot number R 12 . Therefore, in the analyses to investigate the practical aspects of possible ionospheric trends this parameter has been used. As the ionospheric radio propagation in the HF range is mainly dependent on the behavior of the ionospheric F2-region (height and maximum elec- tron density), in the following the results of trend analyses of hmF2 and foF2 observations all around the world are presented. The analyses have been carried out for data series mainly starting at 1957 with a duration of at least 30 years. Altogether the results of 53 stations with foF2 data and 50 sta- tions with hmF2 data have been investigated. The hmF 2 values were derived from M(3000)F2 data using the simple formula of Shimazaki (1955). The trend method used starts with calculations of sim- ple regression equations using monthly mean values the ionospheric parameter X ( = hmF2 or foF2) at each full hour in dependence on the solar activity assuming a linear dependence
However, there is nothing to prevent changes in male attitudes toward service sector employment, especially if high rates of unemployment among men persist over long periods and there is at the same time erosion in state unemployment or welfare benefits. In those circumstances, it could well be the case that we may find men reentering traditional female occupations such as clerical jobs, nursing, teaching and even domestic service. Under these circumstances, the unemployment experiences of men and women would increasingly have similar roots. As we shall see however, in the next section, the persistent gender division of labor has meant that men's unemployment due to deindustrialization has not been mitigated by growth in the service sector, nor is the narrowing of male female inequality ratios due to women's entry into men's jobs.
Abstract. In recent decades, acidification of the open ocean has shown a consistent increase. However, analysis of long- term data in coastal seawater shows that the pH is highly variable because of coastal processes and anthropogenic car- bon inputs. It is therefore important to understand how an- thropogenic carbon inputs and other natural or anthropogenic factors influence the temporal trends in pH in coastal seawa- ter. Using water quality data collected at 289 monitoring sites as part of the Water Pollution Control Program, we evaluated the long-termtrends of the pH insitu in Japanese coastal sea-
For further comparison we plotted the observatory loca- tions on the map of long-wavelength crustal anomalies of all three components at the Earth’s surface obtained from the MF4x model (Lesur and Maus, 2006) in Fig. 3. This lithospheric ﬁeld model is derived from almost 5 years of CHAMP measurements (2000–2005) and spherical har- monic expansion up to degree 90 at low latitudes, but only degree 60 polar regions. Although this satellite altitude model is more suitable for downward-continuation to the Earth’s surface than MF4 (Maus et al., 2006), it still has to be regarded with some caution, as any noise gets strongly ampliﬁed by the downward continuation. We also do not expect a perfect agreement because local, short-wavelength anomalies are not detected by magnetic satellite data. Un- fortunately, a compilation of detailed anomalies from aero- magnetic surveys is not yet available for the whole area of interest.
We start our analysis from the CPI and core CPI. There is no unique definition of core CPI inflation (Wynne, 1999). Several proxies are available, however, attempting to reproduce long-termtrends in the observed CPI inflation (Clark, 2001). The most popular definition used for political reasons is associated with the headline CPI inflation that excludes the prices of food and energy. These two items are considered as having high volatility, which provides the largest fluctuations of the CPI relative to the core CPI. In some sense, the core CPI should provide the most reliable estimate of inflation trends over longer time horizons, and monthly CPI readings may give misleading signals on the long-termtrends (Rich, Steindel, 2005).
Although originally the data were available only in printed form, over time the data be- came available in electronic format. In recent years, the data have been placed into Microsoft Excel® workbooks and a special Excel® feature called a pivot table was employed. Pivot tables allow users to easily create pre-formatted re- ports for specific facilities or groups of facili- ties. However, until recently the data in the workbooks have covered only a single year so in order to look at trends over time users had to gather and merge multiple years’ worth of data. In response, OSHPD created a series of tables and charts displaying statewide trend data covering several years. These publications, available on the OSHPD Web site, were static and could not be manipulated to display trends for individual facilities or groupings. The lat- est trend publications not only include static tables and charts, but also include new Excel® workbooks with a pivot table and pivot charts allowing the examination of trends by facility or groupings of facilities.
Agriculture is a critical industry to the economy of the Great Plains (GP) region of North America and sensitive to change in weather and climate. Thus, improved knowledge of meteorological and climatological conditions during the growing sea- son and associated variability across spatial and temporal scales is important. A distinct climate feature in the GP is the asynchronicity (AS) between the timing of temperature and precipitation maxima. This study investigated a long-term obser- vational data set to quantify the AS and to address the impacts of climate variabil- ity and change. Global Historical Climate Network Daily (GHCN-Daily) data were utilized for this study; 352 GHCN-Daily stations were identified based on specific criteria and the dates of the precipitation and temperature maxima for each year were identified at daily and weekly intervals. An asynchronous difference index (ADI) was computed by determining the difference between these dates averaged over each decade. Analysis of daily and weekly ADI revealed two physically distinct regimes of ADI (positive and negative), with comparable shifts in the timing of both
As the table demonstrates, under the 1 per cent cost increase experiment, projected long-term aged care costs increase by 0.56 percentage points of GDP by 2031 compared to the base case. Similarly, the one-off increase of 5 per cent in residential care costs in 2001 increases projected long-term aged care costs by about 0.05 percentage points of GDP from that year. While these results may appear to be relatively modest in relation to GDP, in monetary terms they are significant. For example, assuming the base case GDP projections hold, an average unit cost increase of one per cent a year means that an extra $5.7 billion (1996-97 prices) has to be found for long-term aged care in 2031. This is more than government expenditure on all residential care — hostels and nursing homes — in 1996-97. These results underscore the value of seeking productivity improvements, innovation and efficiency gains in the provision of long-term aged care services. The results are also a reminder of the need to ensure that government funding arrangements, and regulations more generally, do not mute incentives for providers to search for lower cost operating alternatives. 7
Poisson regression analysis (Table 3) showed that the risk of frequent headache had more than doubled in 2002 compared with 1974 and was almost equally high in girls and boys. The risk for migraine with aura was threefold in 2002 compared with 1974. A significantly increasing long-term time trend was observed in the incidence of migraine across migraine types in both girls and boys. We also found a significantly increasing long- term time trend in the incidence of frequent headache in both girls and boys. Age at the onset of migraine proved earlier in the 2002 study than in the 1992 study (P ⬍ .001) or the 1974 study (P ⬍ .001; Fig 1), respectively, especially in boys.
Also, as mentioned above, we increase f to randomize the phases from higher domain to lower domain step by step.
As f increases, we need to inspect whether linearity and long-termtrends are preserved in the surrogate data, al- though this is not necessary when the data have no long-term trend. In addition to visual inspection, we check the AC of the original data and the surrogate data. If we have infinite data, linearity and long-termtrends are preserved, and the AC of the original data is identical to that of surrogate data and falls within the distribution of surrogate data as well. However, this is not the case in practice. Convergence to the same power spectrum is not actually guaranteed even under the IAAFT method for a finite number of data points. How- ever, we observe that even if estimates of the power spectra are not identical, the global behavior of the AC of surrogate data is almost identical 共or very similar兲 to that of the origi- nal data 关 9 兴. We find that especially when data have long- termtrends, this is more common. We inspect the AC at time lag 1 because the AC at time lag 1 must be most sensitive to the nature of the data. Hence, we inspect whether the AC of the original data at time lag 1 falls within or outside the distribution of surrogate data. When the AC falls within the distribution, we consider that linearity and long-termtrends are sufficiently preserved in the surrogate data, and then cal- culate the AMI. When the AC falls outside the distribution, we consider that linearity and long-termtrends are not well preserved in the surrogate data. Then, we do not use the data, stop increasing f , and adopt the last result 共this is the case of using the widest f in the successful application兲. We note here that even if the AC of the original data at time lag 1 falls outside the distribution of surrogate data, the global behavior of the AC is usually similar.
Audience shares. Ratings are another early warning indicator: They reflect how the program- ming offer meets the taste of the audience — and thus the reach of a show or an advertising spot. Daily audience shares are an important performance indicator for our advertising customers. However, short-term fluctuations of market share ratings do not influence advertising bookings. To monitor risks, audience shares are analyzed daily on the basis of data from the Working Group of Television Research (AGF). In this way, we are able to monitor the success of our for- mats extremely closely and if necessary to take countermeasures at any time. In addition to quantitative analyses, qualitative studies are also an important control instrument. In 2013, program research at ProSiebenSat.1 again cooperated closely with various institutes on this. ProSiebenSat.1 commissioned them to carry out numerous telephone and online interviews and group discussions with viewers in Germany. In this way, stations obtain direct feedback from their audience and thus can optimize and further develop their programs on an ongoing basis. In 2013, the ProSiebenSat.1 Group continued to expand its share of the audience market. It suc- ceeded in carrying through moderate price increases in all markets. The market share of the German station portfolio increased to 28.1 % in 2013 (previous year: 27.8 %). This means the station family is the market leader ahead of the RTL Group, not only among advertising custom- ers but also among viewers. Our portfolio comprises complementary TV stations that address different core target groups. Possible market share weaknesses or short-term fluctuations at individual TV stations can thus be offset by the others.
implementation of standards and focusing attention on the special needs of emerging market countries. Through its membership of the IAIS, the FSB is also committed to the sharing and transfer of knowledge to other emerging market jurisdictions in Africa. The FSB’s staff members are continuously involved in the ongoing work of the IAIS, including the hosting of an annual training seminar for African Insurance Supervisors. A training session was hosted from 21 to 24 November 2005. The FSB hosted the programme and the IAIS funded the training. Thirty delegates from fourteen African countries attended the training seminar.
analyzed to provide a broad-market view of executive incentive plan practices and trends. Information in this report is presented in summary form and is either expressed as a percentage of ClearBridge 100 companies in total, or as a percentage of companies with a particular type of award. In certain charts and tables presented throughout the report, totals may not add up to 100% due to awards that incorporate more than one form of practice.
At the completion of this CPE activity, participants will be able to:
Describe new directions in quality measurement and reporting across longterm care
Define new models of payment and delivery, and how quality measures are used to drive changes Describe the role of clinical and administrative leadership that will be needed to achieve these goals
In this thesis we address the problem of tracking an arbitrary object in a sequence of images. We propose a long-term tracker based on the use of Siamese convolutional neural networks. For detection, we use a template with which we compute cross correlation on every point of the search image to find the best matching region. The template is initialized on the first frame, where we crop the image so that it represents only the tracking object and input it to the convolutional neural network. After each localization the tracker detects if tracking has failed. We propose two online methods of updating the visual model. One updates the template and the other fine tunes the parameters of the network. We carried out two analysis, where we measure long-term tracking performance on dataset LTB35  on modifications of our tracker. With the first analysis we find out what is a good setting for generating region proposals. The purpose of the second analysis is to test the proposed methods for updating the visual model. We find out that without updating the visual model, our tracker achieves F-measure of 0.34, when updating the template 0.22, when fine tuning 0.38 and with both methods we get 0.20. Finally we compared the performance of our tracker with the trackers submitted in the VOT-LT2018  challange, and achieved 11 th place when
observed at mainly stations in the central region and the western Mongolia ( Fig. 6 c). However, for warm nights (TN90p), those higher than 2 d decade 1 were observed in most regions of Mongolia ( Fig. 6 d). The warm extreme indices have signi ﬁcantly increased, while the cold extreme indices have signi ﬁcantly decreased in the country during the study period. In addition, the indices related to minimum temperatures have changed larger than those related to maximum temperatures. The increase in warm extreme indices can be linked to the rapid warming in maximum temperature relative to minimum temperature. The trend analysis shows that the hot extreme values (e.g. TX90p, TN90p, TXx, and TNx) increase in the frequency rather than in cold extreme indices (e.g. TN10p, TX10p, TXn, TNn). Mongolian regions seem to be more sensitive to warming effect during summer time. In examining the seasonal change ( Table 3 ), the reduction of cool days/nights occurred in four seasons, and the highest change was observed in summer. The most signi ﬁcant increase in fre- quencies of warm days/nights occurred in summer. Cool winter nights/days and warm summer days/nights are good indicators for cold periods and heat waves, respectively, in climatic applications. An analysis of the four series of indices reveals that the most signi ﬁcant changes occurred for cool winter nights and warm summer nights, with corresponding trends reaching 1.9 and 3.5 d decade 1 ( Table 3 and Fig. 8 ). The frequencies of cool winter nights/days were relatively stable before the year 1982, but rapidly declined after the year 1986 and have generally remained at a low