In a further evaluation of the model’s performance over agricultural lands, we com-
pleted a site-by-site comparison of modeled SOC to observed SOC. We applied a filter to separate soil over the modeling domain into three types (clay, sand, and silt), to examine the model behavior against the di fferent textures. Figure 3 plots simulation results vs. observations of SOC for values selected as described above. The plot in- dicates that although the model does tend to underestimate the variability of soil car-
We show that landuse allocation approaches based solely on previous landuse history (but disre- garding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both landuse history and driving factors by mechanistically ﬁtting models for the spatial processes of landuse change do not reproduce well long-term historical landuse patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in landuse allocation can translate into signiﬁcant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the landuse, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling communities.
This study was conducted within the research project “Carbon sequestration, biodiversity and social structures in Southern Amazonia: models and implementation of carbon-optimized landmanagement strategies (CarBioCial)” funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. The project particularly aims to assess on-farm trade-offs between different landuse options and to identify policies that could effectively support the diffusion of low-carbonlanduse systems in the state of Mato Grosso. This paper specifically analyzes the adoption of commercial tree plantations and integrated systems of crop, livestock and forestry in Mato Grosso, supported by the ABC Program. It addresses three central research questions: first, whether these production practices are able to generate farm- income levels comparable to those provided by the currently predominant soybean-maize and soybean-cotton double-cropping systems; second, how the provided preferential credit lines (i.e. ABC Integration and ABC Forests) affect local landuse decisions; and third, how the landuse choices may change with respect to changes in the prices of agricultural products and the conditions of ABC credit lines. The ultimate objective of this study is to conduct a modeling- based quantitative assessment of agricultural production in Mato Grosso. The assessment has is done at the farm level, explicitly accounting for individual resource and operational constraints (e.g. limited amount of own capital, crop rotation requirements, inter-temporal machinery and labor allocation, and land availability). At the same time, it considers the resource differences between farms as well as inter-regional differences in climatic and market conditions.
volume impeded us from incorporating irrigation into GAMS in a consistent way. Irrigation changes plant growth and water avail- ability, which in turn affects plant litter inputs and microbially- mediated SOC decomposition, thereby altering net cropland C ﬂux. Therefore, integrating detection of irrigated areas by remote sensing and locally surveyed, irrigation management information promise to help improve simulations of crop yields and C budgets. We did not identify any obvious reasons behind EPIC's over- estimation of crop yield. A literature review on previous applica- tions of EPIC revealed that EPIC tended to over predict crop yield on rainfed land ( Thomson et al., 2005b ). Possible explanations are diverse, such as inadequate considerations of pest damage, detri- mental effects of excess soil water, and competition between staple crops and weeds, as well as unrealistically optimistic simulation of biophysical parameters (such as leaf area index). Additionally, un- certainties arise from errors in soil data, climate forcing, and management schedule, including inaccurate planting and har- vesting dates, extending state-level fertilizer application to each county, approximation of the timing of fertilization and tillage, and idealized allocation of county-scale tillage fractions. All these sources of uncertainties interact with each other and propagate through the processes simulated in EPIC, making it a challenge to identify the mechanisms responsible for EPIC's performance. To address this challenge, new data with re ﬁned quality and details (both spatial and temporal) and improved understanding of rele- vant agroecosystem processes and their robust mathematic rep- resentation in models are required. How to characterize and quantify these sources of uncertainties remain a challenge and require further research.
Erosion and sediment delivery are currently problems of interest for the Lakes Prespa basin. The potential for global climate changes to increase the risk of soil erosion is clear, but the actual damage is not. A model analysis of climate change impacts on runoff and erosion in this basin was not performed previously. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change and agriculturalland manage- ment on channel and soil surface erosion, as well as sediment yield in streams in this basin. For this reason, in this study, the DHSVM (Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegeta- tion Model) model was used. The model was first calibrated using data for the period of (2010 - 2016), and then was used to predict results for the year 2045 using statisti- cally downscaled global climate data. Three tillage scenarios were incorporated into DHSVM: conventional till, reduced till, and no till. Results have shown that climate change and agricultural practices, particularly surface treatments to the land, can im- pact surface runoff and suspended sediment generation. Runoff and sediment genera- tion are strongly related, and runoff flows in rills and gullies typically carry suspended sediment loads downstream. Another factor that can affect formation of these channels and overland flow is landuse. The results also showed that as the projected climate– driven intensity of storms increase, more runoff is predicted in the Lakes Prespa basin. Sensitivity of the model to surface erosion and changes in channel sediment bed depth were both evaluated for several parameters that relate to erosion. Observations have shown that suspended sediment concentrations can drastically increase, but model re- sults do not yet display large fluctuations in suspended sediment concentrations which are typically observed in nature as a result of storm and erosion events. In the long term, continued improvements to this preliminary model of the Lakes Prespa basin can provide better insight into the effects of climate change on the riparian habitat of fish in the basin and the sediment budget of the surrounding area.
12 (Trasar-Cepeda et al., 2000). However, the reliability of enzyme assays has been debated due to the misapplication of techniques and the misinterpretation of results (Coleman et al., 2004). Conditions used for the analysis, such as incubation and pH levels, determine the rate of catalysis (Taylor et al., 2002). These are manipulated to optimum levels for enzyme activity, standardising results so that they can be compared, but creating artificial conditions which are not encountered naturally (Shaw & Burns, 2005). Also of concern is the change in environmental parameters determining enzyme activity, which alters enzyme activity and results (Tate, 2002). This occurs primarily through the physical disruption of soil structure during sampling and preparation, which increases the accessibility of substrate and, therefore, microbial activity (Shaw & Burns, 2005). The interpretation of results gained by this process is also difficult (Taylor et al., 2002). There are underlying mechanisms which could impact results, such as the growth or death of microbes, the de-repression or repression of enzymes, and the inhibition or activation of enzymes (Shaw & Burns, 2005). However, the process is most commonly used since no expensive, sophisticated instruments are required to determine the results (Trasar-Cepeda et al., 2000).
LandPro algorithm projects further increase in crop areas in the eastern part of West Africa which would result in a com- plete depletion of forest and grassland in future decades. The western and central parts of West Africa would also experi- ence noticeable expansion of cropland. However, most of the increment would occur at the expense of forests, with gen- erally a lower degree of grassland depletion. In Nigeria, the country-average cropland fractional cover is projected to in- crease from 39.4 to 84.5 % under MIROC-driven climate and to 80.9 % under CESM-driven climate (Table S1 in the Sup- plement). In the western part of the region along the coast, the largest absolute increase in cropland coverage is projected to occur in Gambia (by 45 and 39.2 % under the MIROC- and CESM-driven climates respectively). Along the Gulf of Guinea, west of Nigeria, Benin would also experience a large increase in cropland coverage by 37.3 % (MIROC) and 40.9 % (CESM). In Niger, crop production is clustered only to the south since the vast northern part of the country is mostly desert. Therefore, although the model projects a small change in the fractional coverage of cropland averaged over the entire country, the magnitude of the projected increase in agriculturallanduse in the south is much larger. For most countries, the LandPro projections for aggregated landuse change driven by the dynamically downscaled climates from the two GCMs are very similar. The inter-model difference is much smaller than the inter-country difference of landuse changes, and much smaller than the differences caused by some human decision-making (as to be shown later). Sev- eral factors contribute to this remarkable similarity in the LandPro-produced landuse changes under the two future
We analyzed the magnitude of landuseland cover changes and identified drivers of those changes at Awash National Park, Ethiopia, using aerial photographs, satellite images and field observation. Scattered bushland—the most important habitat for the wild animals, declined drastically. Areas under grassland, farmland or open land increased over the study period. Policy and park border demarcation issues were identified as drivers of change before 1995 (before decentralization), whereas livestock grazing was indicated to be the leading driver of change after 1995. Major events and causes that largely explained these changes include immigration of the Ittu community, land tenure system, drought, poaching, use policy issues and regional economic and infrastructur- al development. Our study reveals that the sustainability of the park calls for an immediate action to reduce the ever increasing human and livestock pressure on park resources.
This analysis shows that enhanced demand for biofuel crops under the world-wide biofuel programmes has a strong impact on agriculture at global level. The long-term trend of declining real world prices of agricultural products reverses for the feedstock used for biofuels. The incentive to increase agricultural production will tend to increase land prices and farm output in all regions covered in this analysis. Land-scarce countries and regions, such as the EU will not produce the feedstocks needed to generate the required biofuel crops domestically and will run into a higher agricultural trade deficits. Biofuel crop production and landuse will expand in land-abundant countries—NAFTA and especially in South and Central America (e.g., Brazil)—due to increased demand for biofuel crops. The resulting higher feedstock prices will reduce biofuel consumption outside countries with biofuel targets. However, at a global level the use of biofuels increases and crude oil demand decreases, leading to a decline in the world price of oil. The expansion of agriculturallanduse on a global scale, and especially in land-abundant South America, might indicate a decline in biodiversity, as landuse is an important driver for biodiversity.
Social and environmental indicators
A B S T R A C T
Decisions for agriculturalmanagement are taken at farm scale. However, such decisions may well impact upon regional sustainability. Two of the likely agriculturalmanagement responses to future challenges are extended use of irrigation and increased production of energy crops. The drivers for these are high commodity prices and subsidy policies for renewable energy. However, the impacts of these responses upon regional sustainability are unknown. Thus, we conducted integrated impact assessments for agricultural intensi ﬁcation scenarios in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany, for 2025. One Irrigation scenario and one Energy scenario were contrasted with the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. We applied nine indicators to analyze the economic, social and environmental effects at the regional, in this case district scale, which is the smallest administrative unit in Brandenburg. Assessment results were discussed in a stakeholder workshop involving 16 experts from the state government.
Before Aila agriculturalland was 268.02 hectare, but in 2011-12, post Aila agriculturalland decreased to 245.78 hectare. Preceding agriculturalland converted into other land. The result shows that water bodies, settlement, and wasteland were increased due to conversion of agriculturalland by local people. When new concrete embankment constructed, required soil for embankment constriction had been collected from agriculturalland. So, agriculturalland has been transformed to water bodies. Former agriculturalland also has been converted to wasteland because of continuous saline water effect. Agriculturalland area was decreasing gradually after Aila up to 2014. In 2015-16 economic year agriculturalland amount was almost 81.6% among the all landuse category after Aila. So it can be say that agriculturalland has been starting go back its earlier phase. The total statistics of agriculturallanduse change given in Table 1.
Finally, other local factors can influence afforesta- tion patterns. For instance, it has been observed that Scots pine tends to grow adjacent and parallel to the terrace walls in the inner part of the terrace, whereas the outer parts are only densely covered by grass. Ter- races modify hydrological functions in the catchment and consequently change soil moisture patterns. As a result, the inner parts of the terraces are more fre- quently saturated, whereas the outer parts retain less water (Gallart et al 1994). This higher water deficit in the outer part of the terraces can enhance competition from well-established permanent pastures in a nutrient- rich environment (because of fertilization during previ- ous agriculturaluse) (Davis et al 1998). Thus, well- established grass cover can pose serious difficulties for tree growth, especially during characteristic Mediter- ranean annual summer droughts, when P. sylvestris can be highly sensitive to soil water deficits (Martínez-Vilal- ta and Piñol 2002). However, even without this drought effect, inhibition of seedling establishment by compact layers of herbaceous vegetation has been reported as an important factor in regulating afforestation processes in secondary meadows in central Europe (Prach et al 1996).
Computer graphics researchers have also dedicated considerable effort to assisting artists in their work. One particularly relevant stream of this research develops highly automated (procedural) modeling tools [Ebert et al. 2002]. To date most of this work has modeled complex natural objects and phenomena, including among many others fire and explosions [Reeves 1983], plants [Deussen et al. 1998], and flocking and schooling [Reynolds 1987]. Effort on procedural modeling of human artifacts has been relatively sparse, including work on modeling tilings [Miyata 1990; Legakis et al. 2003] and truss structures [Smith et al. 2002]. Recently researchers in procedural modeling have begun addressing applications in architecture and urban planning, motivated by many of the same problems we focus on in our work. Even with the best capture techniques, urban models often contain gaps or lack detail. Lewis and Séquin  ameliorate this problem by generating 3D building models from 2D plans. Given approximate 3D building geometries, Wonka et al.  generate detailed facades using shape grammars, with results exhibiting cultural variety and responding to the influences of population and material. Other researchers have focused on procedural modeling of road networks. Parish and Müller  grow these networks using L-systems, given input terrain and population maps. Users of their systems can specify that roads in certain locations use certain layouts (e.g. gridded and radial).
Target Population: The target population for agricultural surveys carried out by FSRP/DSA is constituted by rural households. This population represents almost 90% of the total population according to the 1996 6 Socio-demographic survey. Urban areas are excluded in the sample. Stratification of the primary sampling units (PSU): The sampling frame was stratified by prefecture, urban and rural. The urban strata consisted of Kigali-Ville and other urban areas, while the rural part of each prefecture was treated as a separate stratum. The sampling frame of cellules within each stratum had been ordered geographically in a serpentine manner before the segments were selected systematically with probability proportional to size (PPS). According to EICV sampling design, a stratified two-stage sample design will be used for the EICV. Within each stratum, the sample segmens/cellules were selected systematically with probability proportional to size (PPS), where the measure of size for each segment/cellule was based on the number of households from the sampling frame; sample households are selected at the second stage within each segment/cellule.
C. Agricultural Decline Amidst Increased Competition
In the second half of the nineteenth century, with better transportation and refrigeration options, western and international production entered into direct competition with eastern markets, and Vermont farmers lost their prime market position. 55 For example, the sharp decline, or ‘bust’ 56 of the Vermont Merino sheep industry had profound economic and landscape impacts; specifically, “Vermont experienced a decrease in the amount of improved land, a drop in farm values, and the desertion of economically untenable hillside farms.” 57 While historians debate the extent of decline during this period, as some communities were able to better weather this transition, there was sectoral change. 58 This population loss was so dramatic that “[b]y the 1870s, state boards of agriculture were anxiously explaining to readers of their annual reports ‘What is Wrong with New England Farming,’ or ‘How to Keep Your Boys and Girls on the Farm.’” 59 A major reason for this economic contraction was that “[w]hile even the poorest land was capable of supporting a flock of sheep, many mountain farms, even when fully exploited, were unable to furnish the feed or pasture-land to support even a small commercial dairy herd,”
SD Tarigan and RK Tukayo: LandUse Change on Irrigation Water Supply
conservation measures in agriculture areas worsen water deficit and threaten sustainability of its role in supplying water either for irrigation as well as for power generation. Role of forest in upper watershed is very important to increase infiltration. According to Bruijnzeel (2004), about 80–95% of incident rainfall infiltrates the soil in a mature tropical rainforest. Infiltrated water has a great impact on dry season stream flow. The higher the infiltrated water, the higher dry season stream flow (base flow) will be. The base flow is thus critical in determining the healthiness of streams where continuous flowing of water in the river is required to maintain the water supply (Yang et al. 2011). Zheng et al. (2009) reported that landuse change played a more important role than climate in reducing stream flow over the last decades in the Yellow River Basin, China. Wang et al. (2012) indicated that even relatively minor landuse changes had a significant effect on regional soil erosion rates and sediment transport to rivers.
Abstract Knowledge plays a great role whenever there is change and growths follow a complex field and competitive. Agriculture in Ethiopia today is such field. Encouraging knowledge in this field is a critical point in the transformation of agricultural sector in Ethiopia. Also managing knowledge within the communities enhances agricultural development. Therefore the main aim of this study is to develop knowledge management strategy in managing indigenous knowledge of landuse and agricultural development in western Ethiopia, Ilu Aba Bora zone which is crucial to enhance management of agricultural indigenous knowledge and land Data was collected using focus group discussion, questionnaire, information mapping from local communities, extension officers and landmanagement officers of Ilu Aba Bora Zone. The result of the study revealed that local communities had various IK on landuse and agricultural development. However, this knowledge was not acquired, developed, shared and preserved well. The major barriers to indigenous knowledge of landuse and agricultural development in the local communities include poor knowledge sharing culture, lack of IK records, lack of trust, no interest to receive IK by younger generation, oral transfer of IK, change of life style and poor recognition of IK. Further research works are recommended to enhance management of indigenous knowledge of local communities.
This section introduces aspects of the ecology, industrial usage and studies to-date, of tall open-forests relevant to improving their carbon accounting, as studied in Chapters 2-to-7. The type of TOF known as ‘wet-eucalypt’ forest is subdivided into ‘wet-sclerophyll’ and ‘mixed-forest’ (Kirkpatrick et al., 1988). Mixed-forest occurs in southeast Australia and is a eucalypt TOF with a rainforest understory. It is ecotonal, occupying a mesic zone between lower-water-balance eucalypt forest and higher-rainfall, lower-fire-frequency rainforest (Gilbert, 1959). Mixed-forest is a form of rainforest (Kirkpatrick and DellaSala, 2011), though it is an overlap of the TOF and traditional rainforest categories. However, in this thesis when rainforest is mentioned it will not refer to mixed-forest, in order to avoid confusion with the present mapping of vegetation types used in Australia. Mixed-forest is common in Tasmania and was previously common in Victoria, (Australia) where it is now rare and termed ‘ecotone’ forest (Petrie et al., 1929; Fedrigo et al., 2014). Most scientific studies on E. regnans forest have been carried out in Victoria, and some in Tasmania, where the larger individual specimens now remain. The Tasmanian island population of Eucalyptus regnans F. Muell. (swamp gum) mixed-forest is genetically linked to the Victorian wet-sclerophyll E. regnans (mountain ash) population via the Otway Ranges (Nevill et al., 2010). Mixed-forest occurs in NSW and QLD with the eucalypts emergent mostly over sub-tropical rather than temperate rainforest (Gilbert, 1959). Mixed-forest is not present in Western Australia (WA), where the only TOF is wet-sclerophyll forest.