Some of these assumptions are known to be imprecise. It is reported that there have been changes in land cover in the upper part of the basin, but the extent and impact are not known and cannot therefore be accurately represented in the model. There has been a shift from cotton to grapes in some parts of the basin during this period but because year-to-year changes are not known accurately the present cropping pattern has been assumed to be constant throughout the model period. Further, scenarios based on the current cropping pattern are likely to be more realistic than those based on an outdated cropping pattern. Another simplification in the model is the way water is distributed during water-short periods. Most Irrigation Associations try to spread water stress equally over their area, while the modeling conditions, as defined above, do not assume such a proportional reduction. However, such a proportional reduction will result, in most cases, in the tail- end areas getting stressed the most, as assumed by the model conditions.
The integrated approach developed in this thesis has been validated in the Pearl River Basin. It performed well for waterallocation and management in the Pearl River Basin under future climate change and socio-economic changes. There are potentials for applying this integrated approach to other large river basins, which are also suffering from water shortage, for example, the Yellow River in northern China. Compared to the Pearl River Basin, water shortage in the Yellow River basin is even worse. During 1972-2000, there were 22 years that the Yellow River failed to reach the sea for a period of different length each year (Magee, 2011). By implementing a waterallocation policy named the water–sediment regulation since 2002, drying up of the Yellow River was alleviated (Kong et al., 2015). However, the basin is still facing severe water shortage in recent years (Zhuo et al., 2016). Unlike in the Pearl River Basin, future climate change is likely to yield a positive effect in the Yellow River basin as discharge is projected to have a consistent increase in early Spring (Immerzeel et al., 2010). Retained in reservoirs, the additional water could enhance water availability for irrigated agriculture and food security. There is no previous study exploring waterallocation in the Yellow River basin under consideration of both socio-economic and climate change scenarios and their impact. Therefore, applying this approach in the Yellow River basin is recommended for future studies. In addition, it is also interesting to modify this approach to identify and assess robust waterallocation plans for large water transfer projects, such as the South-to-North water transfer project in China. Results show that the increasing water demand contributes twice as much as the decreasing water availability to water shortage in the Pearl River Basin. Integration of supply and demand management is thus highlighted in this thesis. However, waterallocation at the basin scale means that we have to look not only at water supply and demand for cross-sectoral and upstream-downstream water users, but also institutional issue involved with the provision of water services (Rijsberman and Molden, 2001). A more extensive analysis about institutional issues, including better insights into the impacts of planning, policies, regulations, and allocation procedures on water supply and use would be needed for future modeling. To develop a new framework involving institutional interventions would constitute an important breakthrough in decision making under future uncertainties.
Abstract. International water resources agreements for transboundary rivers in southern Africa are generally founded in system analysis models for water planning and al- location. The Water Resources Yield Model (WRYM) devel- oped in South Africa has so far been the only model applied in official joint water resources studies aimed to form water- sharing agreements. The continuous discussion around the model performance and growing distress over it being South African, where it was originally developed, while South Africa is one of the interested parties in the process, results in an increased controversy over the system analysis results that are often only meant to guide in selecting the options for water resources management in a given set of scenarios. The objective of this study was therefore to assess the model performance of two other models; WAFLEX and WEAP21 in the Umbeluzi River Basin system where the WRYM was previously applied as part of a Joint River Basin Study. A set of basin development scenarios was equally tested in the three models and the results compared. The results show that the three models all are possible tools for system analysis of river basins in southern Africa, although the structure and complexity of the models are different. The obtained level of satisfaction for specific water users could, however, vary depending on which model was used, which causes uncer- tainties. The reason for the diverse results is the structurally different ways of describing allocation and prioritization of water in the three models. However, the large degrees of free- dom in all system models cause even larger uncertainty in the results since the model developer can, intentionally or unin- tentionally, direct the results to favor certain water user. The conclusion of this study is therefore that the choice of model does not per se affect the decision of best waterallocation and infrastructure layout of a shared river basin. The chosen
Abstract. Mismanagement and uneven distribution of water may lead to or increase conflict among countries. Allocation of water among trans-boundary river neighbours is a key issue in utilization of shared water resources. The bankruptcy theory is a cooperative Game Theory method which is used when the amount of demand of riparian states is larger than total available water. In this study, we survey the application of seven methods of Classical Bankruptcy Rules (CBRs) including Proportional (CBR-PRO), Adjusted Proportional (CBR-AP), Constrained Equal Awards (CBR-CEA), Constrained Equal Losses (CBR-CEL), Piniles (CBR-Piniles), Minimal Overlap (CBR-MO), Talmud (CBR-Talmud) and four Sequential Sharing Rules (SSRs) including Proportional (SSR-PRO), Constrained Equal Awards (SSR-CEA), Constrained Equal Losses (SSR-CEL) and Talmud (SSR- Talmud) methods in allocation of the Euphrates River among three riparian countries: Turkey, Syria and Iraq. However, there is not a certain documented method to find more equitable allocation rule. Therefore, in this paper, a new method is established for choosing the most appropriate allocating rule which seems to be more equitable than other allocation rules to satisfy the stakeholders. The results reveal that, based on the new propose model, the CBR-AP seems to be more equitable to allocate the Euphrates River water among Turkey, Syria and Iraq.
Abstract. In the Volta Basin, infrastructure watershed de- velopment with respect to the impact of climate conditions is hotly debated due to the lack of adequate tools to model the consequences of such development. There is an ongo- ing debate on the impact of further development of small and medium scale reservoirs on the water level of Lake Volta, which is essential for hydropower generation at the Akosombo power plant. The GLOWA Volta Project (GVP) has developed a Volta BasinWaterAllocation System (VB- WAS), a decision support tool that allows assessing the im- pact of infrastructure development in the basin on the avail- ability of current and future water resources, given the cur- rent or future climate conditions. The simulated historic and future discharge time series of the joint climate-hydrological modeling approach (MM5/WaSiM-ETH) serve as input data for a river basin management model (MIKE BASIN). MIKE BASIN uses a network approach, and allows fast simulations of waterallocation and of the consequences of different de- velopment scenarios on the available water resources. The impact of the expansion of small and medium scale reser- voirs on the stored volume of Lake Volta has been quantified and assessed in comparison with the impact of climate vari- ability on the water resources of the basin.
In Turkey, there are many regulations that are being constantly updated as related to water and the effects of pollution on this source. One of these principal regulations is the “Regulation for Control of Water Pollution” printed in official gazette of the Re- public of Turkey on the date of 12/31/2004. This regulation is mainly concerned with the fundamental principles to prevent contamination of water resources and their safe usage. The water resources include both freshwater and groundwater resources. Fur- thermore, the Turkish Standard TS 266 regulates the water use for human consump- tion. The examined parameters have been compared with TS 266 and WHO guidelines. Aim of this research focuses on analyzing the influences of the pollutant materials on water quality parameters as well as fish diversity in the Büyük Menderes River Basin. The key chemical parameters of temperature, pH, EC, Cl − , Na, Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , K + , 2
The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB simulates for each grid cell (0.5 ◦ × 0.5 ◦ globally over the land) and for each time step (daily) the water storage in two vertically stacked soil layers and an underlying groundwater layer, as well as the water exchange between the layers (infiltration, percolation, and capillary rise) and between the top layer and the atmosphere (rainfall, evapotranspiration, and snowmelt). The model also calculates canopy interception and snow stor- age. Subgrid variability is taken into account by considering separately tall and short vegetation, open water (lakes, reser- voirs, floodplains and wetlands), different soil types based on the FAO Digital Soil Map of the World (FAO, 2003), and the area fraction of saturated soil calculated by the im- proved Arno scheme (Todini, 1996; Hagemann and Gates, 2003) as well as the frequency distribution of groundwa- ter depth based on the surface elevations of the HYDRO1k Elevation Derivative Database (HYDRO1k; US Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Sci- ence; http://eros.usgs.gov/#/Find_Data/Products_and_Data_ Available/HYDRO1K). The groundwater layer represents the deeper part of the soil that is exempt from any direct influence of vegetation and constitutes a groundwater reser- voir fed by active recharge. The groundwater store is explic- itly parameterized based on lithology and topography, and represented as a linear reservoir model (Kraaijenhoff van de Leur, 1958). Natural groundwater recharge fed by net pre- cipitation and additional recharge from irrigation, i.e., return flow, fed by irrigation water (see Sect. 2.2) occurs as the net flux from the lowest soil layer to the groundwater layer, i.e., deep percolation minus capillary rise. Groundwater recharge interacts with groundwater storage as it can be balanced by capillary rise if the top of the groundwater level is within 5 m of the topographical surface (calculated as the height of the groundwater storage over the storage coefficient on top of the streambed elevation and the subgrid distribution of ele- vation). Groundwater storage is fed by groundwater recharge and drained by a reservoir coefficient that includes informa- tion on lithology and topography (e.g., hydraulic conductiv- ity of the subsoil). The ensuing capillary rise is calculated as the upward moisture flux that can be sustained when an upward gradient exists and the moisture content of the soil is below field capacity. Also, it cannot exceed the available storage in the underlying groundwater reservoir.
Since the mitigation strategies should be cost effective; therefore, simple structures are proposed to reduce the intensity of flood. Structures such as gabions, weirs, flood walls, levees, and embankments are proposed to obstruct water from entering the lands and cause destruction. These structures are highlighted to get improved near Bela. Using DEM and topographical data, sites are proposed for construction reservoir to store water upstream. One of the possible location is at Kud river, before the junction of Porali and Kud rivers. Another recommendation provided was an earth filled dam in Uthal region to obstruct water coming from tributaries and store that for dry seasons in Uthal. Mitigation practice also includes cultivation on terraces in Wadh and upper Bela to reduce the speed of flow of water.
Although demand (at 540.7 MCM by 2039) is less than delivered supply (563.3 MCM), it should be noted that the requirements are not fully satisfied for each and every one of the 28 points of demand and industries, since loss, reuse and administration at the various sites are not included. For this reason, the figure given as required supply (636.1 MCM) is much higher than the actual value. In this scenario, the decrease in average annual flow compared to current flow would be 18.8% assuming scenarios which estimate reductions up to 35%, and considering only the period 2010- 2039; estimates for the period 2040 to 2069 being more drastic. This should be analyzed very carefully, considering the implications for the study area. According to the Corporación Andina de Fomento (Andino Development Corporation) (CAF, 2000), during the 1997-1998 El Niño phenomenon, flow decreases of up to 33% were reported for the Sinú River, and the consequences included large losses in agricultural production and in other industries, increased demand for water and power, and increased consumer prices for resources.
Since Kabul River is a shared resource of Pakistan and Afghanistan, both countries have the right to use it for their economic up-lift. Factors like climate change, increasing demand for water and concerns for environment would lead to complex disputes between two countries. The issue can be harmoniously resolved through an institutionalized agreement on sharing the Kabul river water equitably between the two riparian states. In Kabul river water treaty, optimal quality and quantity of water must be considered. Governments of both countries should take measures for the protection and conservation of water for sustainable economic and ecological activities such as fisheries, eco-tourism, recreation and watershed management. The deteriorating and depleting water resources of Kabul river system also suggest that the water resources of Kabul River should be safeguarded to avoid future conflicts.
Abstract. Water management substantially alters natural regimes of streamflow through modifying retention time and water exchanges among different components of the terres- trial water cycle. Accurate simulation of water cycling in intensively managed watersheds, such as the Yakima River basin (YRB) in the Pacific Northwest of the US, faces chal- lenges in reliably characterizing influences of management practices (e.g., reservoir operation and cropland irrigation) on the watershed hydrology. Using the Soil and Water As- sessment Tool (SWAT) model, we evaluated streamflow sim- ulations in the YRB based on different reservoir operation and irrigation schemes. Simulated streamflow with the reser- voir operation scheme optimized by the RiverWare model better reproduced measured streamflow than the simulation using the default SWAT reservoir operation scheme. Sce- narios with irrigation practices demonstrated higher water losses through evapotranspiration (ET) and matched bench- mark data better than the scenario that only considered reser- voir operations. Results of this study highlight the impor- tance of reliably representing reservoir operations and irriga- tion management for credible modeling of watershed hydrol- ogy. The methods and findings presented here hold promise to enhance water resources assessment that can be applied to other intensively managed watersheds.
A detailed survey and investigation was conducted to characterize the point and nonpoint sources of pollutants within the basin. Point sources include domestic and industrial wastewater; nonpoint sources consist of agricultural pollutants transported through surface run-off and groundwater, together with urban run-off and irrigation return flow. Although efforts were made to measure the point sources, no systematic measurements or analyses were conducted on the nonpoint sources of pollution. However, literature-based unit loads were used to estimate the nonpoint source pollutant loads (Gonenc et al. 1985). Researchers from the Pilot Study visited the major industrial plants operating in the Basin, and the production methods and wastewater quality and quantity individually investigated and quantified. Pollutant loads were calculated for each site effluent and the results checked against literature values for similar industries. All existing pollutant sources (point and nonpoint) were estimated for the year 2000. The important industries of the basin are the: Kutahya Sugar and Sugar-beet Factory, Kutahya Slaughterhouse, Kutahya Fertilizer Industry, Eskisehir Printed Cloth Textile factory, Eskisehir Engine and Railway Car Manufacturing Factory, Eskisehir Sugar and Sugar-beet Factory, Eskisehir Slaughterhouse, and Eskisehir Organized Industrial District housing a number of various installations, the majority being in the metal-finishing industry.
With respect to most of the water resources indicators, the projected land use changes until 2050 balance each other out, and the net effect is only marginal. Land use projections for Slovenia until 2050 show a substantial increase of forested area at the expense of arable land and semi-natural vegetation. Urban land use is expected to increase by roughly 22% as compared to present day; industrial land use is expected to increase by roughly 27%. For Croatia, forest areas are expected to increase substantially between 2010 and 2050 until 50% of the country’s land surface is forested. Areas of arable land and semi-natural vegetation are expected to decrease substantially. Industrial and urban land uses are expected to increase by respectively 22% and 1%. Effects on water resources would be more significant with increased irrigation to increase the crop yield of e.g maize. This would lead to an increase in water demand from 2216 Mm3/year to 3337 Mm3/year. Overall water demand in the Sava basin would further increase to around 6000 Mm3/year if we combine both increased irrigation and climate projections until 2100. The average simulated maize yield could increase from 5.7 tons/ha at present conditions to 9.9 tons/ha in case of increased and optimum irrigation. These substantial increases in irrigation, which would lead to substantial crop yield increases as well, would lead to water scarcity in parts of the Sava basin. Also, there just is not sufficient water to irrigate all areas which are water-limited for crop growth. Existing irrigation plans and irrigating the areas which were previously equipped for irrigation (according to FAO) seems more feasible from a water resources perspective.
Ashton, P. J., D. Love, H. Mahachi, and P. Dirks. 2001. An overview of the impact of mining and mineral processing operations on water resources and water quality in the Zambezi, Limpopo and Olifants Catchments in Southern Africa. Contract Report to the Mining, Minerals and Sustainable Development (Southern Africa) Project, by CSIR- Environmentek, Pretoria and Geology Department, University of Zimbabwe-Harare. Report No. ENV-P-C 2001-042. xvi.
For the numerical simulations of tidal bore propagation carried out in the following sections, a unidirectional steady inflow condition is needed. Some advanced inflow boundary works in the particle methods have been developed, such as in Gotoh et al. (2001) and Lastiwka et al. (2009), in which an inflow zone was defined outside the flow domain and once a particle crosses from the inflow zone into the fluid domain, it turns into a fluid particle and meanwhile, a new particle enters the inflow zone from the other side of the domain. In our computations, it has been found that in order to maintain a stable longtime bore propagation, a moving solid wall method is more efficient to generate such an inflow condition. To implement this, we just simply push a solid impermeable vertical wall at one end of the channel flume with an adequate speed so as to achieve the required tidal bore velocity. This method is not only simple to program but also can effectively avoid the possible numerical instabilities arising from the fluctuation of fluid particles near the inflow zone. Naturally, it is inevitable that some kinds of the small disturbance wave can be generated on the free water surface, but this should not produce a negative influence on the computations, as long as we take the numerical results well before these disturbances get into the simulated region of interest.
Table 5 shows the final results of PA, FU, and FD transfer protocols for the three sustainability indexes and for A1-AIM scenario. In this table, we have considered the weight of each GCMs family based on climate pre- diction science to get more clear results. In these predic- tions we assume a series of Per-Capita indexes which will be used in next calculations. As it can be inferred from Table 3, a notable result of GHE-GCM models is that in this region the final results strongly depend on GCMs and the effect of climate scenarios is ignorable. Consequently the results are illustrated just for A1-AIM climate scenario and results gained from other climate scenarios are omitted in order to save the reader’s time. A swift glance on the final results shown on Table 5 in- dicates that there are significant differences between the performances of different protocols in each specific sec- tor. All these three allocation protocols (Fix downstream, Fix upstream, and Proportional allocation) cause similar figures for hydroelectric section which may happen ow- ing to the location of the power planet supplied by the other branches from the eastern part of Dez basin. For
In the reservoir management literature, most of the studies [VanRheenen et al., 2004; Tanaka et al., 2006; Draper and Lund, 2004] examined the release policy of a single reservoir under perfect inflow and climate/population change scenarios using simulation or optimization models. However, assuming perfect inflow information fails to incorporate the uncertainty in the inflow information. Another way to improve regional water management is to use inter- basin transfer. In this chapter, we investigate the role of climate forecasts in promoting inter- basin transfer over the triangle area of North Carolina. This chapter focuses on three aspects related to inter-basin transfer (IBT): (a) Role of inflow forecasts skill in promoting IBT; (b) Importance of spatial correlation between inflows and (c) Role of spatial correlation between the initial storages of regional systems.
Abstract —G roup decision-making management is an important issue in water management reform and development. The lacking of effective communication and cooperation is the major defects of the existing group decision-making models. Based on the in-depth analysis of the coordinating characteristic in group decision making, this study proposed a multi-layer dynamic model of water resource allocation and scheduling. This model focuses on effective communication and coordination. In order to solve the problem of poor convergence of multi-round decision- making process in water resource allocation and scheduling, the scheme-recognized cooperative satisfaction index and scheme-adjusted rationality index are introduced. An optimization algorithm based on the effective distance of group utility is proposed, which can solve the problem about coordination of limited resources-based group decision- making process. The simulation results show that the proposed model has better convergence than the existing models.
The Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) is a conceptual, deterministic degree– day (temperature index method) model used to simulate and forecast daily rainfall and snowmelt runoff in mountainous regions. It can be usefully applied for the estimation of the consequences of climate change on snow cover and runoff from the alteration of the percentage of snow cover and temperature. SRM was designed by Martinec (1975) for small basins in Europe. The availability of remote sensing snow cover data provides flexibility to apply this model in large basins. The SRM has been applied in the Ganges River Basin, which has an area of 917,444 km 2 and elevations up to 8,840 m (Martinec et al. 2007). This model has been used successfully in more than a hundred catchments located in different regions of the world. SRM was effectively tested by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for daily streamflows simulation (WMO 1986) and moderately to simulate the circumstances of real-time runoff predictions (WMO 1992). Initially, the user must provide a known or gauge streamflow value as the initial condition, and then it can be run according to the length of input data set variables, such as precipitation, temperature, and snow-covered area (SCA). Furthermore, the model requires a number of basin physical characteristics such as the basin area, zone area (in the case of zone-wise application) and the hypsometric (area–elevation) curve. The main Equation (3.1), on which the algorithm of the model is based, computes the water generated from rainfall and snowmelt, overlaid on the computed recession flow and converts this into daily streamflow from the catchment.
The parameter of the ranges of decrease in precipitation was the main criterion to determine the type of water year type. Although these decreases are apparently very small, they were used to estimate the anomalies in precipitation in order to pinpoint the sequence followed by the types of years which are being projected for the future (Very dry, Dry, Average, Wet, and Very wet years). However, considering that in this region, according to these predictions, the temperatures are expected to continue to rise over time, even slight decreases in precipitation and higher temperatures would result in a considerable decrease in the surface water flow at the disposal of the different areas comprising the river basin. This situation would aggravate the runoff in the high and middle altitude zones of the basin, thereby adversely affecting the Xicoténcatl 029 and Mante 002 irrigation districts. In the case of the urban centers, such a critical state would intensify the problem of water scarcity in the Xico neighborhoods and in Ciudad González.