Top PDF Modelling water demand and availability scenarios for current and future land use and climate in the Sava River Basin

Modelling water demand and availability scenarios for current and future land use and climate in the Sava River Basin

Modelling water demand and availability scenarios for current and future land use and climate in the Sava River Basin

As noted before the input population numbers and land demands are constraints for the LUISA modules that manage the spatial distribution of people and land-use patterns. Because in particular land-use patterns are relevant for the subject of this report, we will focus on the modelling of those land-use patterns here. For a description of the population allocation module we refer to (Batista e Silva et al., 2013). The land-use allocation module distributes discrete land-use classes by simulating competition between the modelled land-uses. Its core was initially based on the Land Use Scanner (Hilferink and Rietveld, 1999)(Koomen et al., 2011), CLUE and Dyna-CLUE (Verburg and Overmars, 2009; Verburg et al., 2002) land-use models (Verburg and Overmars, 2009; Verburg et al., 2002), but has since been substantially modified to allow for interactions with the population allocation and accessibility modules. The land-use allocation module assumes that land-uses attempt to achieve most attractive locations through a bidding process. For each land-use, total regional areas are limited by the demand for the land use as well as the supply of land in the region. The attractiveness of locations is defined through potential accessibility, exogenous variables such as slope and distance to roads, neighbourhood relations, expected policy effects and a-priori defined costs involved in the transition from one land use to another.
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Assessing the Impacts of Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change on the Freshwater Availability in the Brahmaputra River Basin

Assessing the Impacts of Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change on the Freshwater Availability in the Brahmaputra River Basin

SWAT allows users to adjust CO2 concentration, weather parameters (e.g., temperature, precipita- tion, radiation and humidity), and land use, and includes approaches describing how those parameters affect plant growth, ET, snow, and runoff generation. SWAT has been found to be suitable for large basins such as the Brahmaputra, and has often been used as a tool to investigate climate and land use change effects on freshwater availability around the world ( Abbaspour et al., 2009; Gosain et al., 2006; Jha et al., 2006; Montenegro and Ragab, 2010; Rossi et al., 2009; Schuol et al., 2008; Siderius et al., 2013 ). The primary goal of this study was to assess long-term patterns of freshwater availability in the Brahmaputra basin under climate and land use and land cover change scenarios. To fulfill the goal, we calibrated the model using the sequential uncertainty fitting II (SUFI2) algorithm ( Abbaspour et al., 2004 ). We then quantified the sensitivity of the hydrological variables such as total water yield, soil water content, ET, streamflow, and groundwater recharge to a group of various climate change scenarios including changes in CO 2 concentration, temperature, and precipitation. We assessed the long-term patterns in the hydrological variables with Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercompari- son Project (CMIP3) downscaled precipitation and downscaled Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) land use change scenarios for the 21st century under the A1B and A2 scenarios ( Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000 ). In brief, the A1B storyline assumes a future world of very rapid eco- nomic growth, low population growth, and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technology with the development balanced across fossil fuel and non-fossil fuel energy sources. In contrast, the A2 storyline assumes a very heterogeneous world where population growth is high, economic devel- opment is primarily regionally oriented, and per capita economic growth and technological change are more fragmented and slower than in A1B.
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Modelling land-use and climate change impacts on hydrology: the Upper Ganges river basin

Modelling land-use and climate change impacts on hydrology: the Upper Ganges river basin

The CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) model projections for the end of this century suggest an intensification of heavy precipitation events over India under the scenarios with a continuous rise in radiative forcing (Scoccimarro et al., 2013). The average summer rainfall over India will increase by around 5-10%, pointing towards a wetter on average summer season (Turner, 2013). According to these projections, precipitation intensity seems to increase more than mean precipitation under a warmer climate (Scoccimarro et al., 2013; Meehl et al., 2005), which is physically consistent with the fact that warmer air can hold more moisture, leading to more intense rainfall when it does occur (Turner and Annamalai, 2012). Therefore, the suggested increase in the summer monsoon rainfall is directly related to the projected increase of the land-sea thermal contrast but also to the projected temperature increase over the Indian Ocean, which will allow for more moisture to be advected towards India (Hu et al., 2000; May, 2002; Ashrit et al., 2003; May, 2004; Ueda et al., 2006; Turner et al., 2007; Kripalani et al., 2007; Cherchi et al., 2011; Turner and Annamalai, 2012). Besides, the Indian Ocean/western Pacific warm pool region has a nearly monotonous warming trend in the past 50 years (Knutson et al., 2006) and it could potentially allow for an increase in the moisture supply over the Indian continent (Turner and Annamalai, 2012). More rainfall would increase water availability but on the other hand, the larger inter-annual variability in summer rainfall could be associated with more frequent/severe flood and drought events. The spatial patterns of these changes vary from model to model, making it difficult to project how rainfall might change within India (Turner and Slingo, 2009).
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Hydrological responses of a watershed to historical land use evolution and future land use scenarios under climate change conditions

Hydrological responses of a watershed to historical land use evolution and future land use scenarios under climate change conditions

GIBSI is an integrated modelling system designed to assist stakeholders in decision making process for water manage- ment at the watershed scale (Rousseau et al., 2000; Vil- leneuve et al., 1998). It is basically composed of a MySQL® database management server, a GIS and a graphical user interface (GUI). The modeling part is based on the semi- distributed, physically based hydrological model HYDRO- TEL (Fortin et al., 2001a). HYDROTEL integrates six com- putational modules that are run in a cascade (i.e. in a decou- pled manner): weather data interpolation, snow cover dy- namic, potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture balance, surface runoff and streamflow. Each module offers more than one computational algorithm based on the availability of data for the studied watershed. Some algorithms, devel- oped from physically based principles, retain some empirical aspects while others are still fully empirical. Rainfall–runoff processes can be modeled on a 3–24-h time step basis. The hydrological model is sensitive to land use configuration by the mean of the Manning coefficient (for surface runoff rout- ing), leaf area index and root depth (for actual evapotranspi- ration calculation). Other models can be used (i.e. erosion, nitrogen, phosphorus and pathogens transport), but they were not considered in this study. All models run on a daily time step with meteorological data (precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures) as inputs. Outputs are daily stream- flow and water quality data at any computational river seg- ment. Pre- and post-processing tools enable to easily define management scenarios, run simulations and analyse results. The 1995 land use configuration is used by default in the database and for simulations. It was determined based on a satellite image processed and validated with 1994 survey data (Villeneuve et al., 1998).
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Water resources availability in the Caledon River basin : past, present and future

Water resources availability in the Caledon River basin : past, present and future

178 development. Land use and cover changes have been shown to affect hydrological regimes and stream flow in many catchments throughout the world, including South Africa (Schulze, 2000). It is possible that in the Caledon River Basin there will be significant changes in land use practices and cover in the future and this will affect some of the Pitman model parameters. For example, urbanisation will increase the portion of impervious portion of the basin thereby affecting the value of the parameters that determine surface runoff, while changes in land cover would lead to changes in the interception storage and actual evapotranspiration parameters. While these are some of the more obvious likely changes, there is insufficient knowledge or information available to predict the extent of such changes within the basin, as well as to sufficiently establish new parameter sets under changed conditions. While, the general physical characteristics of the Caledon River Basin and its response to climate inputs are likely to change in future, these changes could not be quantified with sufficient confidence to warrant their inclusion in this study. Whether or not the current uncertainty bounds of the model output constraints and the model parameters are wide enough to include the effects of climate induced physiographic changes therefore remains a question for future research.
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Simulating past changes in the balance between water demand and availability and assessing their main drivers at the river basin scale

Simulating past changes in the balance between water demand and availability and assessing their main drivers at the river basin scale

According to the results shown in Fig. 12, the Aragon and Catalunya, Ebro Valley, Segre–Urgel and lower Ebro sections in the Ebro Basin appear to have found a sustainable balance between water use and availability if climatic conditions re- main in the range of variability as that observed in the recent past. Comparison of Figs. 10b and 11b shows an improve- ment in the water balance in the Segre–Urgel irrigation sys- tem due to the construction of the Rialb dam in the early 2000s, which was added to the storage capacity of the Oliana dam. The combined operation of the two dams reduces an- nual agricultural water shortage rates (Fig. 11b) compared to the Oliana dam without the additional storage capacity of Ri- alb (Fig. 10b). On the other hand, the expansion of irrigated areas in the Bardenas and Alto Aragon systems appears to have contributed to the increase in water stress revealed in Fig. 10b. Figure 11b shows that the current uses of water in the Bardenas system would not match water availability in the hydro-climatic conditions of the recent past. With its cur- rent water use and water management and under unchanged climate variability, in the future, this area could face many long severe shortage events (MS = 75 % and Res = 0.2), even though, generally speaking, the system can still be consid- ered to be reliable since years with a total deficit of over 50 % occur in our simulations less frequently than once ev- ery 5 years (see Fig. 12). Finally, the Jalon and Guadalope ar- eas appear to be particularly unbalanced (see Fig. 12), even
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Impact modelling of water resources development and climate scenarios on Zambezi River discharge

Impact modelling of water resources development and climate scenarios on Zambezi River discharge

There are a few modelling studies that analysed future runoff conditions in the Zambezi basin under scenarios of climate change and water demand. This approach requires a fully-fledged hydrological modelling of the water fluxes in the basin and is therefore a considerable task, especially due to the fact that the models are set-up in a large, data-sparse region with a unique hydrology. Harrison and Whittington (2002) studied future energy generation at the proposed Batoka Gorge hydro-power plant at the Zambezi River below Victoria Falls. They modelled significant reductions in future discharge, albeit cautioning that “there is concern regarding the ability of the hydrological model to reproduce the historic flow”. Yamba et al. (2011) applied the Pitman water balance model with selected climate scenarios to the full Zambezi basin to assess future energy generation at large hydro-power plants, obtaining results that show gradual reductions in discharge owing to climate change and increasing water demand. They show that their runoff simulations perform well in one tributary (Kabompo River), but do not present evaluations for the Zambezi River or the main tributaries. Beck and Bernauer (2011) modelled the combined changes in water demand and climate in 13 sub-basins of the Zambezi basin and the impact on mean water availability. They conclude that future climate change is of less concern, whereas population and economic growth as well as expansion of irrigated areas are likely to have important transboundary impacts due to significant decrease in water availability. They calibrated their hydrological model on long-term mean monthly discharge data, but do not present an evaluation of their discharge simulations with observed data.
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Modelling the effects of land-use and land-cover change on water availability in the Jordan River region

Modelling the effects of land-use and land-cover change on water availability in the Jordan River region

Abstract. Within the GLOWA Jordan River project, a first- time overview of the current and possible future land and wa- ter conditions of a major part of the Eastern Mediterranean region (ca. 100 000 km 2 ) is given. First, we applied the hy- drological model TRAIN to simulate current water avail- ability (runoff and groundwater recharge) and irrigation wa- ter demand on a 1 km×1 km spatial resolution. The results demonstrate the scarcity of water resources in the study re- gion, with extremely low values of water availability in the semi-arid and arid parts. Then, a set of four divergent scenar- ios on the future of water has been developed using a stake- holder driven approach. Relevant drivers for land-use/land- cover change were fed into the LandSHIFT.R model to pro- duce land-use and land-cover maps for the different scenar- ios. These maps were used as input to TRAIN in order to generate scenarios of water availability and irrigation water demand for the region. For this study, two intermediate sce- narios were selected, with projected developments ranging between optimistic and pessimistic futures (with regard to social and economic conditions in the region). Given that climate conditions remain unchanged, the simulations show both increases and decreases in water availability, depending on the future pattern of natural and agricultural vegetation and the related dominance of hydrological processes.
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Environmental sustainability of grey water footprints in Peshawar Basin: Current and future reduced flow scenarios for Kabul River

Environmental sustainability of grey water footprints in Peshawar Basin: Current and future reduced flow scenarios for Kabul River

Since Kabul River is a shared resource of Pakistan and Afghanistan, both countries have the right to use it for their economic up-lift. Factors like climate change, increasing demand for water and concerns for environment would lead to complex disputes between two countries. The issue can be harmoniously resolved through an institutionalized agreement on sharing the Kabul river water equitably between the two riparian states. In Kabul river water treaty, optimal quality and quantity of water must be considered. Governments of both countries should take measures for the protection and conservation of water for sustainable economic and ecological activities such as fisheries, eco-tourism, recreation and watershed management. The deteriorating and depleting water resources of Kabul river system also suggest that the water resources of Kabul River should be safeguarded to avoid future conflicts.
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Water Resources Availability and Hydropower Production under Current and Future Climate Scenarios: The Case of Jhelum River Basin, Pakistan.

Water Resources Availability and Hydropower Production under Current and Future Climate Scenarios: The Case of Jhelum River Basin, Pakistan.

these high altitude mountain ranges of the Jhelum River catchment. The most active hydrological areas, which generate the greatest amount of water for the Mangla Basin, are ungauged or scarcely gauged, particularly at elevations greater than 3000 m. Hydrometeorological studies are essential in this hydrologically vigorous area at altitudes greater than 3000 m, where the greatest amount of precipitation falls in solid form. Remote sensing tools are a suitable approach to investigate cryosphere dynamics efficiently in these inaccessible highlands. An understanding of cryosphere dynamics and its impact on the hydrological behaviour of the sub-basins of Mangla catchment is vital for better water resources management in Pakistan. In this section, the investigation focuses on studying the snow cover dynamics in Mangla catchment by using a freely available remote sensing snow cover data product and the climate and hydrological gauge data of stations located within or close to the catchment border (at different elevations). Moreover, the precipitation data plays a tremendously important role for the hydrological analysis. During the last decade, the use of remote sensing precipitation data has been considered the most reliable source for estimating the hydrological regime in ungauged or scarcely gauged catchments in high altitude mountainous areas.
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Water allocation under future climate change and socio-economic development : the case of Pearl River Basin

Water allocation under future climate change and socio-economic development : the case of Pearl River Basin

The integrated approach developed in this thesis has been validated in the Pearl River Basin. It performed well for water allocation and management in the Pearl River Basin under future climate change and socio-economic changes. There are potentials for applying this integrated approach to other large river basins, which are also suffering from water shortage, for example, the Yellow River in northern China. Compared to the Pearl River Basin, water shortage in the Yellow River basin is even worse. During 1972-2000, there were 22 years that the Yellow River failed to reach the sea for a period of different length each year (Magee, 2011). By implementing a water allocation policy named the water–sediment regulation since 2002, drying up of the Yellow River was alleviated (Kong et al., 2015). However, the basin is still facing severe water shortage in recent years (Zhuo et al., 2016). Unlike in the Pearl River Basin, future climate change is likely to yield a positive effect in the Yellow River basin as discharge is projected to have a consistent increase in early Spring (Immerzeel et al., 2010). Retained in reservoirs, the additional water could enhance water availability for irrigated agriculture and food security. There is no previous study exploring water allocation in the Yellow River basin under consideration of both socio-economic and climate change scenarios and their impact. Therefore, applying this approach in the Yellow River basin is recommended for future studies. In addition, it is also interesting to modify this approach to identify and assess robust water allocation plans for large water transfer projects, such as the South-to-North water transfer project in China. Results show that the increasing water demand contributes twice as much as the decreasing water availability to water shortage in the Pearl River Basin. Integration of supply and demand management is thus highlighted in this thesis. However, water allocation at the basin scale means that we have to look not only at water supply and demand for cross-sectoral and upstream-downstream water users, but also institutional issue involved with the provision of water services (Rijsberman and Molden, 2001). A more extensive analysis about institutional issues, including better insights into the impacts of planning, policies, regulations, and allocation procedures on water supply and use would be needed for future modeling. To develop a new framework involving institutional interventions would constitute an important breakthrough in decision making under future uncertainties.
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Analysis of the water supply-demand relationship in the Sinú-Caribe basin, Colombia, under different climate change scenarios

Analysis of the water supply-demand relationship in the Sinú-Caribe basin, Colombia, under different climate change scenarios

renewable water supply). According to predictions, by 2025, 5 billion people will be affected by water tension. At the same time, flooding may increase in frequency and magnitude in other regions as a result of the growing incidence of heavy rainfall events, which could in turn increase runoff and erosion, making these events negative factors for many industries and purposes (IPCC, 2001a). It is estimated that 65% of the world’s population impacted by natural events has been affected by hydrometeorological phenomena. According to the WMO (2004), during the period 1993-2002, hydrometeorological extremes affected 87% of the people impacted by disasters. Of deaths reported in the period, 52% were the result of drought, and 11% of floods.
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Population growth, land use and land cover transformations, and water quality nexus in the Upper Ganga River basin

Population growth, land use and land cover transformations, and water quality nexus in the Upper Ganga River basin

2014), Canadian water quality index (CWQI) (Farzadkia et al., 2015), comprehensive water pollution index of China (Li et al., 2015), Prati’s implicit index of pollution (Prati et al., 1971), Horton’s index, Nemerow and Sumitomo pollution index, Bhargava’s index, Dinius second index, Smith’s in- dex, Aquatic toxicity index, Chesapeake Bay water qual- ity indices, modified Oregon WQI, Li’s regional water re- source quality assessment index, Stoner’s index, two-tier WQI, CCME-WQI, DELPHI water quality index, universal WQI, overall index of pollution (OIP) and coastal WQI for Taiwan (Abbasi and Abbasi, 2012; Rai et al., 2011). Cur- rently, there is not a sufficient amount of literature available on comparisons between all the abovementioned water qual- ity indices based on clusters, differences, validity, etc. How- ever, in a study by Sinha and Das (2015), a comparison was made between CCME and DELPHI water quality indices based on multivariate statistical techniques, viz. coefficient of determination (R 2 ), root mean square error (RMSE), and absolute average deviation. Results revealed that the DEL- PHI method had higher predictive capability than the CCME method. There is no universally accepted method for the de- velopment of water quality indices. Therefore, there is no es- tablished method by which 100 % objectivity or accuracy can be achieved without any uncertainties. There is continuing interest across the world to develop accurate water quality indices that suit best for a local or regional area. Each water quality index has its own merits and demerits (Sutadian et al., 2016; Tyagi et al., 2013).
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Land Use and Land Cover Changes in a Tropical River  Basin: A Case from Bharathapuzha River Basin, Southern India

Land Use and Land Cover Changes in a Tropical River Basin: A Case from Bharathapuzha River Basin, Southern India

Real estate is also believed to be a safe long term in- vestment among all sections of the society who has addi- tional surplus income to save. Moreover, it is highly luc- rative for the middlemen and the promoters of real estate ventures who orchestrate and boost up the market value of land. Conversion of wetlands to households is a usual practice in Kerala. Most of the agriculture belts of Pala- kkad have got legally converted as housing plots prior to the Land acquisition (amendment) bill (2007). The new ‘Regulatory Framework for Conservation of Wetlands (2008) by the central government also does not affirm the future of rice paddies, an ecosystem on its own sup- porting a range of species and offering a range of eco- logical services, although it deter filling up wetlands for other uses.
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Assessment of Climate Trends and Land Cover/Use Dynamics within the Somone River Basin, Senegal

Assessment of Climate Trends and Land Cover/Use Dynamics within the Somone River Basin, Senegal

this area [61]. This is partially due to the rural exodus, which has followed the agricultural crisis in rural areas (reduced rainfall, land degradation) and which caused the rush of people toward the coast, to explore other activities such as fi- shery and aquaculture. The consequences are the pressures on fish and oyster resources (ocean and inland fisheries) in addition to shellfish harvesting in la- goons and estuaries, which implied the resource scarcity. Additionally, between 1946 and 1978, 85% of the Somone area was progressively replaced by unvege- tated mudflats in the intertidal zones and by barren area in the supratidal zones. Until 1990, this was mainly a result of traditional wood harvesting [29]. Compa- ratively, In Delta State, Nigeria, high rates of deforestation in mangroves were linked mainly to agriculture and aquaculture activities [62]. Otherwise, the pop- ulation increase has led to an unprepared occupation of sensitive areas the shore- line, in the lagoons borders [63], exacerbated by the emergence of activities such as tourism. According to [29], increasing seaside tourism was accompanied by the real estate and construction pressures and unregulated development of the So- mone coastline. In the Ceuta coastal lagoon system, Sinaloa, Mexico, the develop- ment of shrimp aquaculture is causing a new pressure on this environment, and it has changed the coastal landscape covering 3190 ha in less than 15 years, mainly replacing bare soil and salt marsh [64].
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Uncertainty in Surface Water Availability Over NC Due to Climate and Land Use Changes

Uncertainty in Surface Water Availability Over NC Due to Climate and Land Use Changes

3. Inflow Projections and Reservoir Analyses under Climate Change: Methodology Since the downscaled climate change projections from Maurer et al. (2007) are available only at the monthly time scale, we performed temporal disaggregation (Prairie et al. 2007) to convert the monthly precipitation and temperature time series to daily time scale for forcing the SWAT model. Figure 2 provides the overall approach for obtaining changes in inflows and storages for the Jordan Lake reservoir under near-term climate change by using a: a) continuous semi-distributed SWAT model and b) the Jordan Lake reservoir model. First, the SWAT model parameters were calibrated for the Deep River during 1981 to 1990 using observed streamflow and then validated for the Haw River using observed gridded data of precipitation and air temperature (Maurer et al. 2002) given that these two neighboring watersheds are similar in hydroclimatic conditions and projections of population growth. Then, the SWAT model was forced with spatially downscaled (Maurer et al. 2007) and temporally disaggregated climate data obtained over the period 1981 to 2041. The projected changes in mean monthly inflows from the SWAT model under each GCM were used with a statistical generation scheme (discussed in detail in Section 3.2) to obtain 50 realizations of monthly inflows to analyze the performance of Jordan Lake under different scenarios of increased water demands due to population growth. The next sub-sections describe the details related to each of the above modeling segments.
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Water availability, demand and reliability of in situ water harvesting in smallholder rain fed agriculture in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa

Water availability, demand and reliability of in situ water harvesting in smallholder rain fed agriculture in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa

The two major agricultural systems were simulated on each relevant land cover class. The management of the smallholder systems was modelled as rain-fed maize with- out added inorganic fertilisers. Timing of planting, harvest, and mouldboard plough tillage was based on field-scale re- search and assumed uniformity in space and time (Kosgei et al., 2007). The parameterisation of the cultivar type was derived from climatic data and local expertise (J. Kosgei, personal communication, 2008). The commercial systems were simulated as rain-fed or irrigated according to their respective land cover class. Irrigation was based on plant- water-stressed automatic scheduling, and withdrawn from lo- cal reaches. The four major crop types were simulated on both rain-fed and irrigated lands in proportions derived from provincial-level data (Statistics South Africa, 2006). Sin- gle cropping was assumed based on reported cropping in- tensity (FAO, 2005). Cultivar parameterisation and timing of operations originated from Schulze (2007), ARC (2008), du Toit (1999) and Ma’ali (2007). All irrigated and most rain-fed commercial system HRUs were fertilised with inor- ganic fertilisers based on crop-type specific proportions and compositions given by the Fertiliser Society of South Africa (www.fssa.org.za, access: 13 March 2009). Plant-nutrient deficit automatic fertilisation scheduling was employed, and the annual maximum application amount was derived from ARC (2008). The locations of crop type and fertiliser us- age were randomly distributed among the commercial sys- tem HRUs according to their respective proportions because no additional information on their spatial distribution was available. Tillage effects of commercial farmers were as- sumed to be captured in the calibration process. Remaining crop parameters, and parameters for non-crop land covers, originated from the SWAT default database (Neitsch et al., 2005). Parameters sensitive to model outputs were subse- quently calibrated to the local conditions.
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Analysis of future hydropower development and operational scenarios on the zambezi river basin

Analysis of future hydropower development and operational scenarios on the zambezi river basin

Southern Africa, and the Zambezi River Basin (ZRB) in particular, are bound to face significant challenges related to their water resources in the coming decades. On the one hand growing population and booming economic activity will undoubtedly increase the pressure exerted on natural ecosystems, be it in terms of land use changes, direct water abstractions for irrigation, or increased evaporation from new hydropower schemes. On the other hand, studies indicate that climate change is likely to have a strong impact on the basin’s climate and runoff characteristics (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2001). Presented what can be classified as worrying figures, Arnell (1999) found that the ZRB can witness decreased precipitation (~15%), increased potential evaporative losses (~15-25%), and diminished runoff (~30-40%).
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LAND USE IN A FUTURE CLIMATE AGREEMENT

LAND USE IN A FUTURE CLIMATE AGREEMENT

Market mechanisms combine financial incentives with flexibility. Non-market financial incentives may work more directly in stimulating particular mitigation actions. Incentives could be created through demand for emission reductions from land-use contributions or linking land-use contributions to carbon markets. The efficacy of emission trading markets depends on key characteristics and design parameters, such as sufficient demand, availability of supply, market rules, environmental integrity, and transaction costs. The relative lack of demand for land- use credits is a key lesson from emission-trading markets to date (i.e., any mechanism under the UNFCCC that allows land-use credits to be used to meet compliance requirements). The vast majority of emissions trading occur in domestic markets, and if domestic emissions- trading systems do not also allow land-use credits demand will not materialize and the incentives will not exist. This occurred for the Kyoto Protocol’s flexible mechanisms (CDM, JI, and emissions trading), which have not achieved their mitigation potential for land use. Long-term and consistent demand is particularly important for the land- use sector, as emission reductions or removals can take time to accumulate, and weak or short-term demand may result in reversals if incentives disappear.
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Investigating Future Variation of Extreme Precipitation Events over the Willamette River Basin Using Dynamically Downscaled Climate Scenarios

Investigating Future Variation of Extreme Precipitation Events over the Willamette River Basin Using Dynamically Downscaled Climate Scenarios

F -1 (1-p; μ, σ, γ) = μ + (σ/ γ){[- ln(1 - p)] -γ – 1}, γ ≠0, (4) F -1 (1-p; μ, σ, γ) = μ + σ{- ln[- ln(1 - p)]}, γ=0. (5) As in section 3.2.1, μ is termed the location parameter, σ is the scale parameter, and γ is the shape parameter of the representative GEV distribution, p is the desired return period, and (1-p) is the computed non-exceedance probability. For this study, two, five, ten and twenty-five year return levels, in units of mm/day, were determined for both the historic and future periods. As was the case with the ML estimation of the GEV distribution, the „extRemes‟ package, using the shape, location and scale parameters combined with user specified return periods, yielded estimates of the return levels for each RCM simulation dataset. Return level magnitudes serve as the basis for many aspects of water resource design and management, the ability to accurately predict how these values may change in the future due to climate variability may provide valuable insight and information that leads to increased economic and public safety.
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