Top PDF Potential consequences of projected climate change impacts on hydroelectricity generation

Potential consequences of projected climate change impacts on hydroelectricity generation

Potential consequences of projected climate change impacts on hydroelectricity generation

Studies have shown that precipitation is the most important source of uncertainty derived from the Global Circulation Model predictions, and that this uncertainty is further magnified by runoff-related issues. The historical practice of depending on natural systems to fluctuate within an unchanging envelope of variability is no longer appropriate (Milly et al. 2008). Therefore, improved skill in forecasting precipitation has the potential to greatly improve decision making (Markoff and Cullen 2008). This requires proactive monitoring of the regional and local climate and catchment runoff to provide improved and reliable historical data at a scale that is useful and relevant. In addition, the integration of climate risks into the operational and management decision-making process will ensure a proactive approach (Ebinger and Vergara 2011). This information will improve the early warning systems that include procedures both for evacuation and for securing the electricity generation installation and transmission lines before the extreme weather event occurs (Urban and Mitchell 2011). To understand the impacts, a distinction should therefore be made between trends and extreme variability (shocks). Characterising these factors as either trends or extremes provides two key benefits. First, the different impacts on the hydropower infrastructure can be distinguished and therefore more clearly assessed; second, appropriate responses can be identified to manage the different impacts and provide flexible adaptive capacity, as well as being robust to shocks (see Table 1). Climate change trends and extreme variability need to be considered when siting new plants and when undertaking associated feasibility studies and environmental impact assessments (Urban and Mitchell 2011).
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Climate change impacts and greenhouse gas mitigation effects on U.S. hydropower generation

Climate change impacts and greenhouse gas mitigation effects on U.S. hydropower generation

Climate change will have potentially significant effects on hydropower generation due to changes in the magnitude and seasonality of river runoff and increases in reservoir evaporation. These physical impacts will in turn have economic consequences through both producer revenues and consumer expenditures. We analyze the physical and economic effects of changes in hydropower generation for the contiguous U. S. in futures with and without global-scale greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, and across patterns from 18 General Circulation Models. Using a monthly water resources systems model of 2119 river basins that routes simulated river runoff through reservoirs, and allocates water to potentially conflicting and cli- mate dependent demands, we provide a first-order estimate of the impacts of various projected emis- sions outcomes on hydropower generation, and monetize these impacts using outputs from an electric sector planning model for over 500 of the largest U.S. hydropower facilities. We find that, due to generally increasing river runoff under higher emissions scenarios in the Pacific Northwest, climate change tends to increase overall hydropower generation in the contiguous U.S. During low flow months, generation tends to fall with increasing emissions, potentially threatening the estimated low flow, firm energy from hydro- power. Although global GHG mitigation slows the growth in hydropower generation, the higher value placed on carbon-free hydropower leads to annual economic benefits ranging from $1.8 billion to $4.3 billion. The present value of these benefits to the U.S. from global greenhouse gas mitigation, discounted at 3%, is $34 to $45 billion over the 2015–2050 period.
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Climate Change Impacts on Droughts

Climate Change Impacts on Droughts

Given the major severe drought events of the last decade, e.g. the 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts (both characterized as “100yr events” [7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13]), and the significant reliance of South–Central American economies on rain-fed agricultural yields (rain-fed crops contribute more than 80% of the total crop production in South-Central America [14]), then there is a large concern in the region about climate-change and climate-related impacts [15]. South–Central American countries have an important percentage of their GDP in agriculture (10% average [14]), and the region is a net exporter of food globally, accounting for 11% of the global value [16]. According to the agricultural statistics supplied by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) [14], 65% of the world production of corn and more than 90% of the world production of soybeans are grown in Argentina, Brazil, the United States and China. Climate change has the potential to increase drought disasters by subjecting South–Central American regions to levels of drought frequency and severity not previously experienced. Indeed, the productivity of rain-fed crops is expected to decrease in the extensive plains located in middle and subtropical latitudes of South–Central America (e.g. Brazil and Argentina), leading to a reduction in the worldwide productivity of cattle farming and having adverse consequences to global food security [17, 18]. Therefore, projecting the spatial distribution of future drought frequency and severity in a non-stationary climate is of major importance for South–Central American countries. For example, [19] found that in Northeast Brazil and eastern Amazonia smaller or no changes are seen in projected precipitation intensity, though significant changes are seen in the frequency of consecutive dry periods.
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Lightning NOx, a key chemistry-climate interaction: impacts of future climate change and consequences for tropospheric oxidising capacity

Lightning NOx, a key chemistry-climate interaction: impacts of future climate change and consequences for tropospheric oxidising capacity

and 8 Tg(N) yr −1 ), its vertical distribution and generation mechanisms (Schumann and Huntrieser, 2007; Wong et al., 2013), future projections are also highly uncertain (Price, 2013). A large part of the uncertainty in future changes arises from deficits in our understanding of the processes that drive modelled changes in convection. Chadwick et al. (2013) analysed tropical convective mass fluxes in the models contributing to the recent Coupled Model Intercom- parison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and found both a climato- logical weakening and a deepening of convection to be ro- bust responses to a warmer climate. The depth of convection is likely to increase due, at least in part, to an uplifting of the tropopause with climate change. However, the mechanisms behind the changes in convection are complicated by sev- eral potential contributing factors and are still under debate. These factors might include: increasing sea-surface temper- atures (SSTs) (Ma et al., 2012; Ma and Xie, 2013; Chad- wick et al., 2013), spatial changes in SST patterns (Xie et al., 2010), increases in the static stability of the lower atmo- sphere (as the upper troposphere warms more than the lower troposphere) (Chadwick et al., 2012) and increases in the
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A proposal for a vulnerability index for hydroelectricity generation in the face of potential climate change in Colombia

A proposal for a vulnerability index for hydroelectricity generation in the face of potential climate change in Colombia

other variables or processes such as increase of evaporation, reduction of natural stream flows and water availability, reduction of water storage volumes at reservoirs, and reduction on hydropower generation. Also, in other studies performed by IDEAM (2000) and Bernal (2000), it was also found that because of climate change, for different time periods and different scenarios, higher temperatures and less rainfall are expected in most of the hydrologic regions in which Colombia is divided. These projected conditions are highly sensitive because of the dependency that Colombia has on hydropower generation for satisfying the increasing demand of energy throughout the country, and the impact that hydropower generation shortages could have on the national economy.
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Projected impacts of climate change on hydropower potential in China

Projected impacts of climate change on hydropower potential in China

on existing hydroelectric facilities through a hydropower scheme, which includes a reservoir operation module to regu- late the simulated flow, similar to van Vliet et al. (2016). The study focuses on the hydropower potential but the changes in reservoir hydropower capacity caused by the development of hydroelectric facilities are not considered because changes in reservoir operations are to be optimized across multiple objectives – water supply and flood control in particular – and are prone to coordination between agencies and types of reservoir management (Tang et al., 2015). Nevertheless, this model-based analysis is expected to provide insight into fu- ture changes in current and additional potential hydropower generation of China, and to complement previous research studies at global scale (e.g., van Vliet et al., 2016). This study (1) assesses both gross and installed hydropower po- tential of China, and (2) provides an exhaustive uncertainty quantification with multimodel simulations, and thus (3) sup- ports regional development of China by focusing on regional variability. The presented modeling framework is compatible with integrated assessment models (IAMs) which can com- bine socioeconomic analyses to further support the develop- ment of hydropower assets. This paper is organized as fol- lows: Sect. 2 describes the method and data, Sect. 3 presents the results, Sect. 4 presents a discussion of the uncertainty associated with this study as well as the integration with so- cioeconomic analyses, and the last section presents the main conclusions.
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The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

The pathways through which extreme weather events can affect human health are often complex and interrelated. Direct morbidity and mortality are the health effects typically associated with disasters. In addi- tion, secondary or indirect health impacts may be associated with changes in ecologic systems and human population displacement. Ecologic changes affecting land cover or the ability to sustain a level of biodiversity can alter the abundance and distribution of disease-carrying insects, rodents, and other vectors. In cases of prolonged or severe drought, human populations may migrate or move to urban areas in search of employ- ment. Both the direct and indirect impacts of extreme weather events can lead to impaired public health infrastructure, reduced access to health care services, and psychological and social effects. Local population preparedness for extreme events is, therefore, an important determinant of a disaster’s impacts. Factors
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Water: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the Water Resources of the United States

Water: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the Water Resources of the United States

new tools such as the reduction or elimination of subsidies, sophisticated pricing mechanisms, and smart markets provide incentives to use less water, produce more with existing resources, and reallocate water among different users. Water marketing is viewed by many as offering great potential to increase the efficiency of both water use and allocation (NRC 1992, Western Water Policy Review Advisory Commission 1998). As conditions change, markets can help resources move from lower- to higher-value uses. The characteristics of water resources and the institutions established to control them have inhibited large-scale water marketing to date. Water remains underpriced and market transfers are constrained by institutional and legal issues. Efficient markets require that buyers and sellers bear the full costs and benefits of transfers. However, when water is transferred, third parties are likely to be affected. Where such externalities are ignored, the market transfers not only water, but also other benefits that water provides from a non-consenting third party to the parties to the transfer. A challenge for developing more effective water markets is to develop institutions that can expeditiously and efficiently take third-party impacts into account (Loh and Gomez 1996, Gomez and Steding 1998, Dellapenna 1999). As a result, despite their potential advantages, prices and markets have been slow to develop as tools for adapting to changing supply and demand conditions. The potential gains are breaking down many of the barriers to transfers in the western United States. Temporary transfers are becoming increasingly common for responding to short-term supply and demand fluctuations. Water banks can provide a clearinghouse to facilitate the pooling of water rights for rental. The temporary nature of such a transfer blunts a principal third-party concern that a transfer will permanently undermine the economic and social viability of the water-exporting area. California’s emergency Drought Water Banks in the early 1990s helped mitigate the impacts of a prolonged drought by facilitating water transfers among willing buyers and sellers. Dellapenna (1999) and others have noted, however, that the California Water Bank was not a true market, but rather a state-managed reallocation effort that moved water from small users to large users at a price set by the state, not a functioning market. More recent efforts to develop more functioning markets on a smaller scale have had some success (California Department of Water Resources, http://rubicon.water.ca.gov/b16098/ v2txt/ch6e.html). Idaho and Texas have established permanent water banks and other states are considering establishing them as well.
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A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment scale hydrological models

A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment scale hydrological models

Moreover, we have not sampled downscaling uncertainty, emissions uncertainty, and hydrological model parameter un- certainty (see Fig. 1). Therefore, we are likely underestimat- ing the magnitude of climate and hydrological uncertainty in our analysis. Given the constraints of computational re- sources, we considered seven climate models and two hy- drological models for each catchment. It can be argued that the application of seven climate models presents a reason- able representation of climate model structural uncertainty, given that previous climate change hydrological impact as- sessments have tended to apply a similar or lower number of climate models (Arnell et al., 2011; Hayashi et al., 2010; Prudhomme et al., 2003). The prior uncertainty from climate model structural uncertainty could be reduced by compar- ing GCM simulations of baseline climate with observations. Such considerations have led to the calculation of perfor- mance metrics for GCMs, such as ranking them according to a measure of relative error (Gleckler et al., 2008). Form- ing a single index of model performance, however, can be misleading in that it hides a more complex picture of the rel- ative merits of different models. Furthermore, for one spe- cific region, Chiew et al. (2009) concluded that there was no clear difference in rainfall projections between the “better” and “poorer” 23 GCMs included in the CMIP3 archive (7 of which we applied here) based on their abilities to repro- duce observed historical rainfall. Therefore in their analysis, using only the better GCMs or weights to favour the better GCMs gave similar runoff impact assessment results as the use of all the 23 GCMs. Moreover, on a conceptual level, it has been argued that, because of deep and structural un- certainty, it is not appropriate to seek to estimate the relative weight of different GCMs, and to do so would lead to signifi- cant over-interpretation of model-based scenarios (Stainforth et al., 2007): all models are only partial representations of a complex world, and miss important processes. For these rea- sons, in the present analysis, we assumed that all the GCMs are equally credible, although they are not completely inde- pendent.
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Enhancing strategies to improve hydroelectricity generation

Enhancing strategies to improve hydroelectricity generation

Coal as a source of energy, used in the 18th Century for heating buildings and smelting iron into steel resulted in the development of the first electric generator coal-powered steam engine. Prior to the development of the first electric generator coal-powered steam engine, individuals and industries, rely on muscles to generate power and energy for survival. Energy production and consumption are some of the most important activities across the globe. Renewable energy is an important source for energy production and consumption with significant economic, environmental and social impacts. Economists across the globe establish the renewable energy sector is one of the fastest growing industry in the world. Ban Ki-Moon, the secretary general of the UN reported during one of his speech at an energy conference, that global investment in zero GHG energy will reach $19 trillion by 2020”. Renewable energy plays a fundamental role in WWTP and the economy of SA (Mazzucato and Semieniuk, 2018 ; Castillo and Gayme, 2014; Gu, et al., 2014) . Ineffective strategies are identified as one contributing factor to the intermittent supply of renewable energy source relative to the generation of electricity (Ellabban, et al., 2014). Recent industry publications relative to WWTP establish the impacts of developing an effective strategy for hydropower electricity generation. Some
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Climate change and potential impacts on agriculture in Bhutan: a discussion of pertinent issues

Climate change and potential impacts on agriculture in Bhutan: a discussion of pertinent issues

The dryland farming system is basically practised on upland mountain slopes which make it highly prone to the vagaries of climatic and weather events, such as soil erosion, land fragmentation and nutrient loss. Farm- ers’ low land holdings and subsistence level of pro- duction make it even more sensitive to the impacts of climate change. Loss of traditional genetic resources has been reported in terms of both crop species and varie- ties [31], thus increasing vulnerability of Bhutan’s farm- ing to the climatic shocks. Loss of farm diversity and its vulnerability is evident from the steady decrease in area and production of dryland crops. According to agricul- ture statistics, area and production of the four main minor cereal crops continued to show a decreasing trend (Fig. 4). In the last 8 years, the total area and production in these crops decreased from about 22,126 ac and 15,662 t in 2012 to 16,310 ac and 9642 t in 2016, respectively. For various reasons, such as climate change and socio-eco- nomic, many traditional varieties of crops are reported to be disappearing and replaced (Table 8). Some indigenous crops have disappeared due to diseases and pest inci- dences. In wheat, leaf and stripe rust diseases have been reported [52], while maize was devastated by Turcicum leaf blight in 2006–2007 [32, 35]. Though on a smaller scale but widely practised across the country, vegeta- ble farming is competing on both wet land and dryland farming systems. With low returns from dryland farming, dryland crops are increasingly being converted to vegeta- ble farming which is one of the intensively cultivated sys- tems using conventional technologies. This is ecologically not healthy and is going to further stress the already lim- ited land resources. Data compiled from the agriculture statistics [53] indicate that crop loss to extreme weather events was annually reported, and with climate change, the frequency and intensity of such issues would increase manifold. Projected high-intensity rain in summer and reduced rains in winters in the Himalayan regions [18] indicate massive erosions, crop damage as well as crop loss due to its direct effect on winter crops.
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Potential impacts of climate change on precipitation and temperature at Jor Dam Lake

Potential impacts of climate change on precipitation and temperature at Jor Dam Lake

period and an emission scenario at Jor site, the baseline parameters, which were calculated from the observed dataset from 1984-2012, were adjusted by the Δ-changes for the future period based on emission scenarios, which were predicted by the GCM sub-model for each climatic variable. In this research, the local-scale climate scenarios were based on the A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios simulated by one of the GCMs sub-models, which is called the Hadley GCM3 (HadCM3). HadCM3 was proposed by the UK Meteorological Office’s research centre. This model is the most popular and mature of the GCMs, which uses 360 days per annum, where each month is 30 days and has a spatial grid with dimensions 2.5° latitude × 3.75° longitude (Toews & Allen, 2009). It is similar to a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM), which used the coupled model to generate the transient projections. HadCM3 has been applied in many studies (Houghton et al., 2001; Qian et al., 2004; King et al., 2009). This model is unique among GCMs models because it does not need flux adjustments to produce a realistic scenario (Collins et al., 2001).
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Potential impacts of climate change on Mongolia’s plant protection status quo

Potential impacts of climate change on Mongolia’s plant protection status quo

factors that would lengthen the outbreak periods and shorten the depression time between the outbreak periods. The study also predicts that distribution and formation of new permanent habitats of Asian migratory locust in regions such as Chita oblast, Krasnoyarsk territory and Republic of Tyva adjacent to Mongolia [10]. In China, Asian migratory locust is represented by three subspecies, with L.migratoria migratoria L. distributed most widely covering whole central eastern and western regions, L. migratoria manilensis Meyen occupying the subtropical south eastern part and L.migratoria tibetensis Chen occupying the highlands of Tibetan Plateau and adjust areas. Outbreaks in China historically occurred every ten years, usually after dry summers followed by warm winter. The swarms in Chine mostly restricted the river valleys such as delta areas of the Yellow River that floods intermittently. The studies carried out by Chinese researchers revealed that different populations of the L. migratoria in China exhibit strong local adaptability. The eggs of migratory locust from the temperate zone has showed much more cold hardiness than the southern populations, showing evolutionary adaptability to local thermal environment [11]. Moreover, recently commissioned study on impacts of climate change to L. migratoria tibetensis Chen in the Qinghai-Tibet High Plateau showed that since 1990s, L. m.tibetensis has been on arise and during outbreaks in 2003 to 2006 locusts density reached 1000 to 3000 individuals per m2 threatening the production of highland barley and grass. The study also showed that there is a significant correlation between increasing of potential distribution area and global warming and annual surface temperature increase at the speed of 0.0301℃ triggers expansion of distribution area by 504.38 km2 per year [12]. In 2011, the field expedition led by Dr. Batnaran
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Projected local rain events due to climate change and the impacts on waterborne diseases in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Projected local rain events due to climate change and the impacts on waterborne diseases in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

staged increases in the proportion of filtered finished water beginning with the Seymour Reservoir, followed by the connection of the Capilano Reservoir water to Seymour Capiliano filtration plant in 2014. The Coqui- tlam Reservoir, the third source for the system, is unfil- tered relying upon ozonation as pre-treatment, UV (added in 2014 to enhance treatment), chlorine and pH control for treatment. Though it varies, usually about half of Metro Vancouver’s finished water is filtered [45]. We would expect these interventions have reduced the effect size seen between 1997 and 2009, but because tur- bidity remains a feature of source water from surface sources, we would expect the relationship between ex- treme rain events and waterborne disease risk to remain. Previous studies have reported on the impacts of climate change on diarrheal morbidity and mortality [34–36]. These studies suggest variable increases in diarrheal dis- ease arising from temperature change based on large-scale GCMs. For example, one study projects a 22 to 29% in- crease in risk of diarrhea by 2070–2099 in six study re- gions of the world (excluding North America) compared to 1961 – 1990, based on projected changes in temperature [35]. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates a 5% increase in diarrheal morbidity for each 1 degree Cel- sius increase in temperature [37]. A study from Lebanon found an increased burden of food and waterborne ill- nesses under future scenarios of intensive industrial devel- opment and projected changes in temperature [34]. It is difficult to generalize these results to other contexts such as our region in western Canada. First, in previous work,
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Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the United States.

Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the United States.

I ntegrated Assessment Models (IAMs) used to estimate the US government’s social cost of carbon include large costs due to changes in electricity demand resulting from climate change (1–3). The Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation, and Distribution (FUND), for example, estimates the major- ity of the costs of climate change to result from the additional cost of cooling (4). However, FUND and the other IAMs rely on a highly simplified and outdated estimate of the relation- ship between rising temperatures and heating and cooling costs (5, 6). At the same time, future capital investments in electric generation capacity require accurate, region-specific forecasts of future electricity demand. Many aspects of these forecasts are well understood: electricity demand tends to rise with popula- tion, income, and the presence of energy-intensive industries (7). However, because electricity use by residential, commer- cial, industrial, and agricultural customers is strongly affected by ambient temperature, climate change-induced changes in tem- perature are likely to significantly affect future generation, trans- mission, and distribution requirements relative to a world with a stationary climate. As the electricity grid is designed for max- imum load days, which tend to be the hottest days in many areas, the increasing intensity of extreme heat days will require
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The potential impacts of climate change on diseases affecting strawberries and the UK strawberry industry

The potential impacts of climate change on diseases affecting strawberries and the UK strawberry industry

It is widely accepted that UK agriculture has gone through two periods of major structural change. The first period, known as the ‘productivist’ phase (Ilbery and Watts, 2003), started just after the Second World War and lasted through the 1960s and 1970s. It was driven by strong government support and then later by EU aid, the latter through the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This led to the modernisation and industrialisation of agriculture with fewer, larger and more capital intensive farms, being more fragmented spatially across Great Britain (Ilbery, 1988). Modernisation in agriculture was fuelled by three key processes, which were occurring throughout the industrialised world (Ilbery and Maye, 2010). The first was intensification, where the yield per hectare increased through the use of mechanisation in farming, wider use of chemicals (such as pesticides, fungicides and fertilizers) and the adoption of disease-resistant varieties. The second process was specialisation, whereby farms chose to stop farming unprofitable crops in favour of maximizing the production of more profitable crops, thus gradually obtaining their income from fewer products. The third and final process was concentration, where production was becoming increasingly concentrated on fewer farms in specific regions, aided by, as Harvey (1963) suggested, three specific processes: agglomeration, cumulative change and diminishing returns. Others have also suggested that farmers in certain areas responded differently to national agricultural process, resulting in uneven spatial development (Munton et al., 1988). This was heightened by the development of enterprises in areas in which they have a traditional association; this helps to explain the segregation of British arable and livestock farming into the arable east and pastoral west (Ilbery, 1988). As a result of intensification and specialization, British farming gradually became detached from its consumers and the rural economy in general and, by doing so, the link between ‘product’ and ‘place’ was broken (Ilbery and Maye, 2010). The supply chains became longer with more intermediaries, with more of the product going to supermarkets.
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Patterns in physiological trait variation delineate potential impacts of climate change on ectotherms

Patterns in physiological trait variation delineate potential impacts of climate change on ectotherms

The strong trend for restricted species to occupy significantly less climatically variable environments, means that geographic range restriction in the examined taxa was likely due to narrow tolerances rather than to biotic interactions, habitat specificity or dispersal barriers. While the association between species’ ranges and tolerance ranges seems obvious, it is not necessarily so. For example, when spatial climate gradients are complex rather than linear, increased tolerance of variability may not necessarily translate into a potential to spread proportionately further in any particular direction. This may be one of the reasons why the Carlia clade in this study showed the strongest trends (Fig.1.6 and 1.8), since it was the only clade that occurred over an area (the Australian East Coast) that exhibits a relatively clear, one- dimensional latitudinal climate gradient. Similarly, as thermal variability is generally determined by variation in minimum rather than maximum temperatures (see Fig.1.1), a species adapted to a highly variable habitat may have difficulty surviving in a more stable habitat defined by longer periods of high temperatures or in areas with higher peak temperatures (common in Australia). On the other hand, species adapted to stable (often warm, tropical) habitats could spread into more variable (often temperate or arid) habitats, by extending dormancy during colder periods, by egg retention or by viviparity (allowing them to avoid restrictions on minimum temperatures for egg incubation) by shifting activity periods away from the hottest time of day (Gordon et al. 2010), or by developing nocturnality. Similarly, selection of stable microhabitats, such as moist leaf litter, may enable a species with narrow tolerances to spread over large areas, provided
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The Potential Scenarios of the Impacts of Climate Change on Egyptian Resources and Agricultural Plant Production

The Potential Scenarios of the Impacts of Climate Change on Egyptian Resources and Agricultural Plant Production

On the other hand, climate change is likely to involve changes in safe conditions of food and territorial integr- ity with increasing pressure incoming sexually transmitted diseases through incubators, and water, as well as airborne by the food itself. The implications of this significant decline in agricultural productivity, and in labor productivity, lead to the aggravation of poverty and increasing rates of mortality. Climatic changes that occur in the time are serious drought [6], which hits some areas of the world, while rainfall causes devastating floods and torrential rains in other areas. Large emissions occurred since the beginning of the industrial revolution in Eu- rope, leading to the emergence of the phenomenon of global warming. Thus, the most features of the global cli- mate changes are the increase in the melting of the snow in the North and South poles, increasing the water le- vels in the seas and oceans and involving the risk of sinking parts of the world, especially low-lying areas. Egypt is not so long ago, and such climatic changes will affect the available natural resources, especially the relative scarcity of suppliers’ feature foundations, namely, land and water resource, which will lead to direct and far- reaching impact on the agricultural sector and will affect those climatic changes on the food in the world, lead- ing to the rise of world food prices and an increase in Egyptian food invoice. Thus the pressure on the Egyptian general budget increases, and Egypt is a net importer of food [7] [8].
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Suitable days for plant growth disappear under projected climate change: potential human and biotic vulnerability

Suitable days for plant growth disappear under projected climate change: potential human and biotic vulnerability

suitable growing days due to temperatures exceeding the upper limit of the thermal range in combination with water failing to meet plant growth requirements. By 2100, for example, broadleaf evergreen forests will lose about 3 wk of suitable growing days under RCP 2.6 (Fig 4A) but lose nearly 3 mo under RCP 8.5 (Fig 4C). Prolonged unsuitable climatic condi- tions can prevent development of tropical forests [37] and result in tree die-offs, either directly from intolerance to altered climate conditions or indirectly through increased vulnerability to infestations by insects and pathogens [1,2,21]. In turn, such increased tree mortality can trigger ecological responses, including changes in plant community composition (e.g., from sensitive to less-sensitive species) and range contractions or expansions [2]. Unsuitable climate condi- tions can lead to increased plant respiration, potentially turning forests into carbon sources rather than carbon sinks [4,5]. At the same time, fewer freezing days at higher latitudes could potentially accelerate carbon releases through microbial decomposition [38,39], and this excess carbon might not be sequestered by plants, as higher latitudes will remain limited by insuffi- cient solar radiation (S6G–S6I Fig). Finally, the impacts of climate change on plant growth could alter ecological interactions among species with potential cascading effects on food webs; integrating changes in suitable plant growing days and NPP within recently developed General Ecosystem Models [40] could provide some insights into the magnitude of these changes.
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Projected impact of climate change on hydrological regimes in the Philippines

Projected impact of climate change on hydrological regimes in the Philippines

The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. To fully understand these potential impacts, especially on future hydro- logical regimes and water resources (2010-2050), 24 river basins located in the major agri- cultural provinces throughout the Philippines were assessed. Calibrated using existing historical interpolated climate data, the STREAM model was used to assess future river flows derived from three global climate models (BCM2, CNCM3 and MPEH5) under two plausible scenarios (A1B and A2) and then compared with baseline scenarios (20th cen- tury). Results predict a general increase in water availability for most parts of the country. For the A1B scenario, CNCM3 and MPEH5 models predict an overall increase in river flows and river flow variability for most basins, with higher flow magnitudes and flow variability, while an increase in peak flow return periods is predicted for the middle and southern parts of the country during the wet season. However, in the north, the prognosis is for an increase in peak flow return periods for both wet and dry seasons. These findings suggest a general increase in water availability for agriculture, however, there is also the increased threat of flooding and enhanced soil erosion throughout the country.
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